Preprint Article Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World

Version 1 : Received: 20 April 2020 / Approved: 21 April 2020 / Online: 21 April 2020 (05:42:47 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 1 June 2020 / Approved: 3 June 2020 / Online: 3 June 2020 (05:10:05 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Hisaka, A.; Yoshioka, H.; Hatakeyama, H.; Sato, H.; Onouchi, Y.; Anzai, N. Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 1904. Hisaka, A.; Yoshioka, H.; Hatakeyama, H.; Sato, H.; Onouchi, Y.; Anzai, N. Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 1904.

Journal reference: Journal of Clinical Medicine 2020, 9, 1904
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9061904

Abstract

Global differences in changes in the numbers of population-adjusted daily test-positive cases (NPDP) and deaths (NPDD) by COVID-19 were analyzed for 49 countries, including developed and developing countries. The changes as a proportion of national population were compared, adjusting by the beginning of test-positive cases increase (BPI) or deaths increase (BDI). Remarkable regional differences of more than 100 fold in NPDP and NPDD were observed. The trajectories of NPDD after BDI increased exponentially within 20 days in most countries. Machine learning analysis suggested that NPDD on 30 days after BDI was the highest in developed Western countries (1180 persons per hundred million), followed by countries in the Middle East (128), Latin America (97), and Asia (7). Furthermore, in Western countries with positive rates of the PCR test of less than 7.0%, the increase in NPDP was slowing-down two weeks after BPI, and subsequent NPDD was only 15% compared with those with higher positive rates, which suggested that the situation of testing might have affected the velocity of COVID-19 spread. The causes behind remarkable differences between regions possibly include genetic factors of inhabitants because distributions of the race and of the observed infection increasing rates were in good agreement globally.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; coronavirus; infectious disease; infection management; PCR test; mortality; kinetic analysis

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 3 June 2020
Commenter: Akihiro Hisaka
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: The previous version was revised extensively. Figure 6 in the old version was deleted and new Figure 4 was added.
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