PreprintArticleVersion 1Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Application of Poisson Autoregressive and Poisson Exponential Weighted Moving Average Models on the Prevalence of Some Infectious Diseases in Jos, Nigeria
Version 1
: Received: 29 October 2019 / Approved: 29 October 2019 / Online: 29 October 2019 (15:51:16 CET)
How to cite:
Adenomon, M.O.; Fagbemi, E.T. Application of Poisson Autoregressive and Poisson Exponential Weighted Moving Average Models on the Prevalence of Some Infectious Diseases in Jos, Nigeria. Preprints.org2019, 2019100342. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201910.0342.v1.
Adenomon, M.O.; Fagbemi, E.T. Application of Poisson Autoregressive and Poisson Exponential Weighted Moving Average Models on the Prevalence of Some Infectious Diseases in Jos, Nigeria. Preprints.org 2019, 2019100342. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201910.0342.v1.
Cite as:
Adenomon, M.O.; Fagbemi, E.T. Application of Poisson Autoregressive and Poisson Exponential Weighted Moving Average Models on the Prevalence of Some Infectious Diseases in Jos, Nigeria. Preprints.org2019, 2019100342. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201910.0342.v1.
Adenomon, M.O.; Fagbemi, E.T. Application of Poisson Autoregressive and Poisson Exponential Weighted Moving Average Models on the Prevalence of Some Infectious Diseases in Jos, Nigeria. Preprints.org 2019, 2019100342. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201910.0342.v1.
Abstract
The research work examined the trend of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Hepatitis diseases in Plateau state. Annual data from 2003 to 2018 was collected from the department of biostatistics at Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH), Jos. The methods of analysis used are the Poisson Autoregressive Model (PAR(1)) and the Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Model (PEWMA). The results revealed a significant annual decrease of 23.9% and 4% in Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS respectively. Furthermore, the results showed a significant annual increase of 46% in Hepatitis. The PEWMA model used revealed that TB increased by 0.02% when there is an increase in HIV but not significant, while Hepatitis significantly aggravates TB by at least 0.24%. Also, there is a significant rise in HIV by 0.85% when TB increases but Hepatitis has no such effect on HIV. Lastly, PEWMA model indicated a rise of 0.5% in Hepatitis cases when there is an increase in TB, but a surge in HIV has no such effect on Hepatitis cases in Jos. The study recommended that fight against TB should be intensified since TB cases significantly affect both HIV and Hepatitis in Jos, Nigeria.
Keywords
Tubercolusis (TB); Poisson Autoregressive (PAR); Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Model (PEWMA); Hepatitis; Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV); Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDs)
Subject
Computer Science and Mathematics, Probability and Statistics
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
