Version 1
: Received: 16 April 2019 / Approved: 17 April 2019 / Online: 17 April 2019 (11:20:13 CEST)
How to cite:
Borodachev, S.M. The Impact of the Dollar Rate on Fluctuations of Ruble Liquidity in Russia. Preprints2019, 2019040199. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201904.0199.v1
Borodachev, S.M. The Impact of the Dollar Rate on Fluctuations of Ruble Liquidity in Russia. Preprints 2019, 2019040199. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201904.0199.v1
Borodachev, S.M. The Impact of the Dollar Rate on Fluctuations of Ruble Liquidity in Russia. Preprints2019, 2019040199. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201904.0199.v1
APA Style
Borodachev, S.M. (2019). The Impact of the Dollar Rate on Fluctuations of Ruble Liquidity in Russia. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201904.0199.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Borodachev, S.M. 2019 "The Impact of the Dollar Rate on Fluctuations of Ruble Liquidity in Russia" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201904.0199.v1
Abstract
The influence of both the absolute values of the dollar/ruble exchange rate (rate) and its changes per day on the balance of the Bank of Russia operations for ruble liquidity provision and absorption (saldo) was investigated. Daily data were used from January 2015 to April 2018. It was found that the change in the rate 6 days ago is the cause (according to Granger) of the saldo value. For the saldo dynamics, an oscillatory model with an external force - a change in the rate - is proposed. Using the Kalman filter, the model parameters were estimated and saldo forecasted. Found period of self-oscillation is 4.218 days and attenuation of the amplitude for a day in 2.179 times. The rate growth of 1 RUB, after 6 days, causes saldo increase of approximately 20 billion rubles. In fact, the changes in rate cause the variability of the saldo not more than for found coefficient of determination (26.7%), but the "change in the rate-liquidity saldo" system during the crisis-free period has a high "Q-factor," and changes in the rate, repeated with a period close to self-one, can cause large-amplitude fluctuations in saldo.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
