preprints.org > social sciences > other > doi: 10.20944/preprints201803.0074.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 8 March 2018 / Approved: 12 March 2018 / Online: 12 March 2018 (03:38:33 CET)

This paper builds upon a theory of emerging-state actors using ISIS as a case study. This paper seeks to apply the theory in analyzing intervention & containment policies to use against emerging-state actors, using ISIS as the case study. Two baseline scenarios are used for evaluation – one replicating the historical foreign intervention against ISIS and a counter-factual where no foreign intervention occurred. Eleven contemporary military policies were tested against these baseline in isolation, combination, at different timing windows and under hypothetical “best case” conditions as well as operationally constrained. Insights of these tests include the influence of ethnographic envelopes, timing windows. Finally, a policy based on emerging-state actor theory is tested performing substantially better across primary measures than other policies or the historical baseline. This is compared against a falsified-policy designed to disprove that emerging-state actor theory contributed to the benefits. This paper’s contributions are a practical application of system dynamics simulations and systems-thinking to current problems, generate insights into the dynamics of emerging-state actors and intervention strategies, and demonstrate utility for future application of the underlying simulation in other scenarios involving non-state actor irregular conflict including terrorism, insurgents, or emerging-state actors.

ISIS; ISIL; DAESH; insurgency; conflict; security; non-state actor; emerging-state actor; intervention; policy analysis

SOCIAL SCIENCES, Other