Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

The Impact of Climate-Change-Related Disasters on Africa’s Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Conflicts: Can Humanitarian Aid and Food Assistance Offset the Damage?

Version 1 : Received: 3 January 2022 / Approved: 5 January 2022 / Online: 5 January 2022 (13:24:15 CET)

How to cite: Shimada, G. The Impact of Climate-Change-Related Disasters on Africa’s Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Conflicts: Can Humanitarian Aid and Food Assistance Offset the Damage?. Preprints 2022, 2022010044. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202201.0044.v1 Shimada, G. The Impact of Climate-Change-Related Disasters on Africa’s Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Conflicts: Can Humanitarian Aid and Food Assistance Offset the Damage?. Preprints 2022, 2022010044. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202201.0044.v1

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of climate-related natural disasters (droughts, floods, storms/rainstorms) on economic and social variables. As the Africa-specific empirical literature is limited, this study used panel data from 1961–2011 on Africa. The study used a panel data regression model analysis. The results showed that climate change-related natural disasters affected Africa’s economic growth, agriculture, and poverty and caused armed conflicts. Among the disasters, droughts are the main cause of negative impact, severely affecting crops such as maize and coffee and resulting in increased urban poverty and armed conflicts. In contrast, international aid has a positive effect but the impact is insignificant compared to the negative consequences of climate-related natural disasters. Cereal food assistance has a negative crowding-out effect on cereal production. International donors should review their interventions to support Africa’s adaptative capacity to disasters. Government efficiency has reduced the number of deaths, and this is an area that supports Africa’s adaptative efforts.

Keywords

climate change; natural disasters; agricultural production; food aid; official development assistance; conflict; poverty; cereal production; humanitarian aid

Subject

Business, Economics and Management, Economics

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