Version 1
: Received: 3 March 2021 / Approved: 4 March 2021 / Online: 4 March 2021 (10:04:14 CET)
Version 2
: Received: 18 March 2021 / Approved: 19 March 2021 / Online: 19 March 2021 (11:22:38 CET)
Tovissodé, C.F.; Doumatè, J.T.; Glèlè Kakaï, R. A Hybrid Modeling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks with Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa. Biology 2021, 10, 365, doi:10.3390/biology10050365.
Tovissodé, C.F.; Doumatè, J.T.; Glèlè Kakaï, R. A Hybrid Modeling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks with Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa. Biology 2021, 10, 365, doi:10.3390/biology10050365.
Tovissodé, C.F.; Doumatè, J.T.; Glèlè Kakaï, R. A Hybrid Modeling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks with Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa. Biology 2021, 10, 365, doi:10.3390/biology10050365.
Tovissodé, C.F.; Doumatè, J.T.; Glèlè Kakaï, R. A Hybrid Modeling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks with Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa. Biology 2021, 10, 365, doi:10.3390/biology10050365.
Abstract
The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modelling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a flexible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases. In addition, the growth curves were integrated into a SIQR (Susceptible, Infective, Quarantined, Recovered) model framework to provide an overview on the modelled epidemic wave. We focused on the estimation of: (1) the delay between the appearance of the first infectious case in the population and the outbreak (“epidemic latency period"); (2) the duration of the exponential growth phase; (3) the basic and the time-varying reproduction numbers; and (4) the peaks (time and size) in confirmed positive cases, active cases and new infections. The application of this approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa allowed to discuss the effectiveness of some containment measures implemented across the region.
Keywords
Growth model; Epidemic latency period; Reproduction number; West Africa
Subject
Computer Science and Mathematics, Applied Mathematics
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Received:
19 March 2021
Commenter:
Romain Lucas GLELE KAKAÏ
Commenter's Conflict of Interests:
Author
Comment:
- The model has been slightly changed: we now grouped unknown and know recoveries - Rhe previous SIQKU model is now changed to SIQR model - The manuscript has been updated accordingly
Commenter: Romain Lucas GLELE KAKAÏ
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
- Rhe previous SIQKU model is now changed to SIQR model
- The manuscript has been updated accordingly