Preprint Review Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Exploring Urgent Non-Pharmacological and Socioeconomic Interventions for the COVID 19 Epidemic in Spain

Version 1 : Received: 25 April 2020 / Approved: 27 April 2020 / Online: 27 April 2020 (02:43:02 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 19 May 2020 / Approved: 20 May 2020 / Online: 20 May 2020 (04:38:52 CEST)

How to cite: Rojo-Manaute, J.M.; Capa-Grasa, A.; Rodriguez-Maruri, G.; Chana-Rodríguez, F.; Puerta Zaballa, P.; Diaz Freire, P. Exploring Urgent Non-Pharmacological and Socioeconomic Interventions for the COVID 19 Epidemic in Spain. Preprints 2020, 2020040470 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0470.v2). Rojo-Manaute, J.M.; Capa-Grasa, A.; Rodriguez-Maruri, G.; Chana-Rodríguez, F.; Puerta Zaballa, P.; Diaz Freire, P. Exploring Urgent Non-Pharmacological and Socioeconomic Interventions for the COVID 19 Epidemic in Spain. Preprints 2020, 2020040470 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0470.v2).

Abstract

Non-pharmacological interventions in the fight against COVID 19 include: a) suppression, which facilitates its extinction; and b) mitigation, which reduces its speed of spread. Left unmitigated, the intensive care unit bed capacity (ICU) is exceeded over its maximum supply, resulting in increased deaths. Suppression has shown in simulation models the potential for decreasing ICU occupation below its surge limit, effectively decreasing mortality. However, for avoiding a rebound in transmission, suppression must be maintained intermittently until a vaccine is available (which may take up to 2 years). The objective of this paper was to describe the mortality patterns observed in Spain, Italy and South Korea for discussing a hypothetical combined public health policy and socioeconomic model that could potentially reduce mortality while reducing the economic impact of this pandemic in Spain. The plan is based on a progressive-voluntary reinstatement to work of the population exposed to the lowest risks (healthy non-immune family units <50 y/o and immune population) and it depends on having sufficiently available ICU beds for providing adequate support. This model, if proven correct for Spain, could eventually be followed by other countries facing a similar impact of the present pandemic.

Subject Areas

non-pharmacological interventions; COVID 19; health policy; mortality; economic; intensive care unit

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 20 May 2020
Commenter: José Manuel Rojo Manaute
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: All the data was updated for May 11th and May 7th. This has not altered the abstract, the introduction or the conclusions. The discussion was updated with the new figures (this is where you'll find the changes. The references have been updated as well for matching the more recent dates. Thus, the new data does not alter our conclusions, it just updates the most recent figures published by the Ministries of Health of Spain, Italy and Korea.
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