Preprint
Article

Revisiting the Relationship between Financial Wealth, Housing Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for the US

Altmetrics

Downloads

276

Views

215

Comments

0

A peer-reviewed article of this preprint also exists.

This version is not peer-reviewed

Submitted:

24 October 2018

Posted:

25 October 2018

You are already at the latest version

Alerts
Abstract
Based on the seminal paper of Case, Quigley and Shiller (2013), we investigate the effects of financial and housing wealth on consumption. Using quarterly data from 1975 to 2016, for all States of U.S. economy, and a different methodology in measuring wealth, we report relatively greater financial effects than housing effects on consumption. Specifically, in our basic utilized model, the calculated elasticity for financial wealth is 0.060, while for housing is 0.045. The results are not in agreement with the ones obtained by Case, Quigley and Shiller. In an attempt to investigate the disparity we proceed by incorporating the introduction of the Tax Reform Act in 1986, which increased incentives for owner-occupied housing investments. Finally, due to distributional factors at work, and taking into account the pronounced uneven distribution of wealth we investigate the effects of wealth for 8 states that include the Metropolitan areas comprising of the well known Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index. Now the housing effect on consumption is much stronger and larger than the financial effect. Additionally, we forecast the consumption changes at the time of the high rise and large drops in house prices for these states. Forecasts showed a recession from the fall of Lehman Brothers until the fourth quarter of 2011. These forecasts were not verified. Probably, the new techniques used by politics played an important role. We also find that extreme behaviors cannot be predicted.
Keywords: 
Subject: Business, Economics and Management  -   Economics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Prerpints.org logo

Preprints.org is a free preprint server supported by MDPI in Basel, Switzerland.

Subscribe

© 2024 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated