Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Human Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Detonations in New Delhi, India

Version 1 : Received: 26 June 2018 / Approved: 27 June 2018 / Online: 27 June 2018 (10:06:50 CEST)

How to cite: Desai, S.; Bell, W.; Harris, C.; Dallas, C. Human Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Detonations in New Delhi, India. Preprints 2018, 2018060438 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201806.0438.v1). Desai, S.; Bell, W.; Harris, C.; Dallas, C. Human Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Detonations in New Delhi, India. Preprints 2018, 2018060438 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201806.0438.v1).

Abstract

The human casualties from simulated nuclear detonation scenarios in New Delhi, India are analyzed, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments and the theoretical application of a nuclear-specific triage system. Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI's ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency's WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA's) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data.  Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for New Delhi, India for single and multiple (six) 25 kiloton (kt) detonations and a single 1 megaton (1000kt) detonation. Major issues related to the emergency management of a nuclear incident are discussed with specific recommendations for improvement.  The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims.

Subject Areas

nuclear; detonations; trauma; thermal burn; radiation; fallout; New Delhi; India; Pakistan

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