Version 1
: Received: 15 April 2020 / Approved: 16 April 2020 / Online: 16 April 2020 (08:24:07 CEST)
How to cite:
Maugeri, A.; Barchitta, M.; Battiato, S.; Agodi, A. Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy. Preprints2020, 2020040267. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0267.v1
Maugeri, A.; Barchitta, M.; Battiato, S.; Agodi, A. Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy. Preprints 2020, 2020040267. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0267.v1
Maugeri, A.; Barchitta, M.; Battiato, S.; Agodi, A. Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy. Preprints2020, 2020040267. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0267.v1
APA Style
Maugeri, A., Barchitta, M., Battiato, S., & Agodi, A. (2020). Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0267.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Maugeri, A., Sebastiano Battiato and Antonella Agodi. 2020 "Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0267.v1
Abstract
Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a small fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (19.5%; 95%CI=0%-34.7%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that the first set of restrictions reduced transmission rate in the community by 42% (95%CI=38%-46%), and that more stringent measures adopted on 23 March succeeded to drastically curb the transmission rate by 84% (95%CI=80%-88%). Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Further modeling after the adoption of control measures, moreover, indicated that restrictions reduced SARS-CoV2 transmission considerably.
Medicine and Pharmacology, Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
