With the rise of Blockchain technology, the cryptocurrency market has been gaining significant interest. In particular, the number of cryptocurrency traders and the market capitalization have grown tremendously. However, predicting cryptocurrency price is very challenging and difficult due to the high price volatility. In this paper, we propose a classification machine learning approach in order to predict the direction of the market (i.e., if the market is going up or down). We identify key features such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to feed the machine learning model. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of Bitcoin close price. We evaluate the proposed approach via different simulations. Particularly, we provide a backtesting strategy. The evaluation results show that the proposed machine learning approach provides buy and sell signals with more than 86% accuracy.

The main aim of this article is to examine the inter-relationships among the top cryptocurrencies on the crypto stock market in the presence and absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. The nine chosen cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Eos, BitcoinCash, Binance, Stellar, and Tron and their daily closing price data are captured from coinmarketcap over the period from 9/13/2017 to 9/21/2020. To determine the order of integration, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests were carried out, and all of the cryptocurrencies were found to be integrated of order 1 i.e. I(1). It has been found that there is strong evidence of a long-run relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins irrespective of whether it is pre-pandemic or pandemic period. Hence these cryptocurrencies' prices and their inter-relationship are resilient to the pandemic.

Introduced in 2009, Bitcoin has demonstrated a huge potential as the world’s first digital currency and has been widely used as a financial investment. Our research aims to uncover the relationship between Bitcoin prices and people’s sentiments about Bitcoin on social media. Among various social media platforms, micro-blogging is one of the most popular. Millions of people use micro-blogging platforms to exchange ideas, broadcast views, and to provide opinions on different topics related to politics, culture, science, and technology. This makes them a potentially rich source of data for sentiment analysis. Therefore we chose one of the busiest micro-blogging platforms, Twitter, to perform sentiment analysis on Bitcoin. We used ELMo embedding model to convert Bitcoin-related tweets into a vector form and SVM classifier to divide the tweets into three sentiment categories - positive, negative, and neutral. We then used the sentiment data to find its relation with Bitcoin price fluctuation using the linear mixed model.

This article delves into the complex landscape of Bitcoin halving events, analyzing the historical context and implications of these pivotal occurrences within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and on its sustainability within the landscape of financial technologies. Through an examination of past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, this study meticulously scrutinizes the conditions and prices of Bitcoin before and after each halving. By synthesizing data and trends from previous events, this article aims to uncover patterns and insights that illuminate the impact of Bitcoin halving on market dynamics and sustainability, movement of the price level, reached peaks and price troughs. Furthermore, this research presents a comparative analysis of past halving events, drawing parallels and distinctions to elucidate the evolving nature of Bitcoin's price movements and market sentiment surrounding these milestone events. Looking towards the future, this study estimates predictions and expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving. By unraveling the intricate relationship between Bitcoin halving events and market behavior, this article seeks to provide a comprehensive understanding of the broader implications for Bitcoin's trajectory and the evolving landscape of the cryptocurrency market and its sustainability.

Within financial technology, Blockchain is a topic that is receiving a lot of attention and discussion. There has been a meteoric rise in engagement and recent studies on this technology. The mainframe, personal computers, the Internet, and mobile applications follow the breakthrough in the history of computing. In qualitative research, the investigation was synthesized utilizing the documentary approach, including content analysis for a review article. The results reveal that Blockchain Technology is getting a foothold not only in the financial industries but is also likely to disrupt other areas like healthcare, real estate, the legal industry, security, government, education, rentals and ride-sharing, charities and aid organizations, and politics. Currently, several projects are researching the possibility of implementing the Blockchain as a structure to support them; as a result, we will soon see that it truly becomes the technology of the future. Furthermore, qualitative interviews or focus group discussions could give more insight into details. In addition, a quantitative approach for further research could provide a generalized explanation.

This study examines the relationship between Bitcoin market dynamics and user activity on the r/cryptocurrency subreddit. The purpose of this research is to understand how social media activity correlates with Bitcoin price and trading volume, and to explore the sentiment and topical focus of Reddit discussions. We collected data on Bitcoin’s closing price and trading volume from January 2021 to December 2022, alongside the most popular posts and comments from the subreddit during the same period. Our analysis revealed significant correlations between Bitcoin market metrics and Reddit activity, with user discussions often reacting to market changes. Additionally, user activity on Reddit may indirectly influence the market through broader social and economic factors. Sentiment analysis showed that positive comments were more prevalent during price surges, while negative comments increased during downturns. Topic modeling identified four main discussion themes, which varied over time, particularly during market dips. These findings suggest that social media activity on Reddit can provide valuable insights into market trends and investor sentiment. Overall, our study highlights the influential role of online communities in shaping cryptocurrency market dynamics, offering potential tools for market prediction and regulation.

Cryptocurrencies have now become an emerging blockchain-based payment technology. Users’ identities on such networks are pseudo-anonymous in that all transactions made from an address are transparent and searchable by anyone; to preserve their privacy, users often use many different addresses. In recent years, some studies have been conducted regarding analyzing clusters of Bitcoin addresses that, according to certain heuristics, belong to the same entity. Such action allows law enforcement to have relevant information in cases where cryptocurrencies are used for illegal trafficking. Clustering methods based on a single heuristic do not allow the clustering of many addresses in a complete and accurate manner. This paper proposes Bitcoin Address Clustering based on multiple Heuristics (BACH), a tool that uses three different clustering heuristics to identify clusters of Bitcoin addresses, which are displayed through a three-dimensional graph. Based on the results, several analyses were conducted, including a comparison with Wallet Explorer, an address clustering tool similar to BACH. BACH, in addition to introducing the innovative feature of graphical visualization of the internal structure of clusters, is shown to improve address aggregation through the joint use of three heuristics for clustering.

Sentiment analysis to characterize properties of Bitcoin prices and their forecasting is here developed thanks to the capability of the Fuzzy transform to capture stylized facts and mutual connections between time series having different nature. Six years of daily Bitcoin Prices and Google Trends are analyzed in order to establish new perspectives in the management of their dynamics.

Blockchain is a path-breaking paradigm, and cryptocurrencies are one of the main application areas of Blockchain technology. Bitcoin leads the cryptocurrency markets, both in terms of market capitalization and in scientific interest. In this paper, we performed a comprehensive bibliometric study of the Bitcoin-related literature. Using the Scopus database, we created a sample that comprises 4495 documents written in the 2011–2020 period. Furthermore, we provided insights about dimensions such as the change in the number of publications over the course of years, the main research areas, types of published documents, most important platforms and sources of Bitcoin publications, highly cited studies, productive authors, author’s countries, and finally main funders of Bitcoin-related research. Lastly, our bibliometric study manifests the current state and future path of Bitcoin literature from distinct perspectives.

We present a hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) architecture that employs various low-level agents to act in the trading environment, i.e. the market. The highest level agent selects among a group of specialised agents, and then the selected agent decides when to sell or buy a single asset for some period. This period can be variable according to a termination function. We hypothesized that due to different market regimes, more than one single agent is needed when trying to learn from such heterogeneous data, and instead, multiple agents will perform better, with each one specialising in a subset of the data. We use $k-means$ clustering to partition the data and train each agent with a different cluster. Partitioning the input data also helps model-based RL (MBRL), where models can be heterogeneous. We also add two simple decision-making models to the set of low-level agents, diversifying the pool of available agents and thus increasing overall behaviour flexibility. We perform multiple experiments showing the strengths of a hierarchical approach and test various prediction models at both levels. We also use a risk-based reward at the high level, which transforms the overall problem into a risk-return optimization. This type of reward shows a significant reduction in risk while minimally reducing profits. Overall, the hierarchical approach shows significant promise, especially when the pool of low-level agents is highly diverse.

This research aimed to investigate the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clean energy (ENERGY), carbon emission allowance prices (CARBON), and Bitcoin returns (BTC) for the period from August 2012 to August 2022. The empirical analysis strategies utilized in this study included the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL long-term coefficient estimator, Fourier Granger Causality, and Fourier Toda Yamamoto Causality methods. Following the confirmation of cointegration among the variables, we observed a positive relationship between BTC and CARBON, a positive relationship between BTC and CPU, and a negative relationship between BTC and ENERGY. In terms of causal associations, we identified one-way causality running from CARBON to BTC, BTC to CPU, and BTC to the ENERGY variable. The study underscores the potential benefits and revenue opportunities for investors seeking diversified investment strategies in light of climate change concerns. Furthermore, it suggests actionable strategies for policymakers, such as implementing carbon taxes and educational campaigns, to foster a transition towards clean energy sources within the cryptocurrency mining sector and thereby mitigate environmental impacts.

In the broader landscape of cryptocurrency risk management, this study delves into the nuanced estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) for a uniformly weighted portfolio of cryptocurrencies, employing the bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution renowned for its semi-heavy tails. Utilizing high-frequency data spanning from January 1st, 2017, to October 25th, 2022, with a primary focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, our research seeks to accentuate the resilience of VaR methodology as a paramount risk assessment tool. The essence of our investigation lies in advancing the comprehension of VaR accuracy by quantitatively comparing observed returns of both cryptocurrencies with their corresponding estimated values, with a central theme being the endorsement of the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution as a potent model for risk measurement, particularly in the domain of high-frequency data. To bolster the statistical reliability of our results, we adopt a forward test methodology, showcasing not only a contribution to the evolution of risk assessment techniques in Finance but also underscoring the practicality of sophisticated distributional models in econometrics. Our findings not only contribute to the refinement of risk assessment methods but also highlight the applicability of such models in precisely modeling and forecasting financial risk within the dynamic realm of cryptocurrencies, epitomized by the case study of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin has been launched for over a decade and made an increasing impact on the world’s financial order, which attracted extensive attention of researchers. Bitcoin system runs on a dynamic P2P network, containing tens of thousands of nodes including reachable nodes and unreachable nodes. In this article, a detection system BNS (Bitcoin Network Sniffer) was prososed, which could collect as many Bitcoin nodes as possible. For reachable nodes, the authors designed an algorithm BRF (Bitcoin Reachable-nodes Finding) based on node activity evaluation, which reduced the nodes to be detected and greatly shortened the detection time. For unreachable nodes, the authors trained a dicision tree model BUF(Bitcoin Unreachable-nodes Finding) to identify unreachable nodes based on attribute features from massive node addresses. Experiments showed that BNS performed better than the website "Bitnodes" in total number and efficiency. Based on the experimental results, the authors analyzed the real network size, node "churn" and geographical distribution.

This study employs traditional OLS (ordinary least squares) regression analysis to investigate the influence of various external factors on Bitcoin price fluctuations from January 2014 to March 2023 using a multidimensional approach. We use factors from the traditional financial market, such as economic policy uncertainty (EPU), oil prices, the NASDAQ index, and gold prices, to identify factors contributing to Bitcoin volatility. Considering the unique situation in the Bitcoin market, that is, 24-hour trading and the short duration of its existence, we incorporate the broadest possible data range to achieve alignment between Bitcoin data and other datasets. The findings of the statistical analysis indicate that EPU and the NASDAQ index promote positive fluctuations in Bitcoin volatility, whereas gold prices act as a dampener. However, we find no empirical support for the influence of energy prices on Bitcoin volatility. These results suggest that Bitcoin should not be underestimated; all stakeholders should treat the issue of Bitcoin volatility seriously, including governments, who should actively regulate the Bitcoin market, and investors, who should recognize the dangers of this volatility, making rational decisions based on individual circumstances and employing flexible trading strategies.

In this study, the dependence between Bitcoin (BTC) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of USA and China is estimated by applying latest methodology of quantile cross-spectral dependence. The findings indicate a positive return interdependence between BTC and EPU is high in short-term, and this dependence decreases as investment horizons increase from weekly to yearly. The information on above interdependence is also extracted by applying wavelet coherence analysis and the estimation results suggest that correlation between BTC and EPU is positive during short-term investment horizon. Furthermore, more diversification benefits of BTC can be obtained during USA-EPU as compared to China-EPU.

This article integrates existing theory from distributed computing and cryptology with anecdotal material from the cryptocurrency industry, to provide a comprehensive description of the minimum requirements of the hypothetical academic blockchain. The paper argues that such a community could significantly reduce the biases and misconduct that now exist in the academic peer review process. Theory suggests such a system could operate effectively as a distributed encrypted telecommunications network where nodes are anonymous, do not trust each other, and there is minimal central authority. To incentivize the academic community to join such a proposed community, the paper proposes a pseudo-cryptocurrency called litcoin (literature coin). This litcoin-based system would create economic scarcity based on proof of knowledge (POK), which is a synthesis of the proof of work (POW) mechanism used in bitcoin, and the proof of stake (POS) mechanism used in various altcoin communities. The paper argues that the proposed POK system would enable the academic community to more effectively develop the research it finds valuable.

The relationship between the returns and volatility of stocks, gold, bonds, and Bitcoin (BTC) to changes in inflation, interest rates (SBI), and exchange rates is a compelling topic, encompassing factors such as inter-asset interactions, and the roles of assets as hedge or safe-haven. We aims the inter-assetscorrelation using Granger Causality Test and the role of hedge or safe-haven assets against uncertainty using GARCH for normal condition and quantile regression in crisis. Last, we built an optimal portfolio using the Arbitrage Pricing Model (APT) consists of 28% stocks, 16% gold, 27% bonds, and 29% BTC, with returns 1.7796% over the Rf. Monthly trading records from 2018 until 2023 are used. The results demonstrate a correlation between the returns of gold and bonds with BTC, while stock volatility is found to correlate with BTC volatility. Furthermore we found a negative correlation between gold returns and exchange rates, though gold shows no correlation with other variables, indicating its effectiveness as a hedge in normal conditions. The bond serve primarily as a diversifier against exchange rate and inflation in normal, bearish, and bullish market conditions. These findings suggest that gold and bonds are more stable instruments and serve as risk mitigation strategy for BTC.

Cryptocurrencies have obtained a crucial position in the international financial landscape. The cryptocurrency market has been perceived as a highly volatile market since the inception of Bitcoin. This study investigates the relevant performance of extreme value models (EVM) in estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of Bitcoin and Ethereum returns. The extreme value mixture models, GPD-Normal-GPD (GNG) and GPD-KDE-GPD models are fitted to the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Kupiec likelihood backtesting procedure is performed on the VaR estimates to assess the fits. Both models’ results showed that the fits were a much more decent representation of the observed data when compared to the Normal distribution. The backtesting results showed that the GPD-KDE-GPD model’s fit was superior to that of the GPD-Normal-GPD for both sets of returns at all VaR risk levels except at the 99% level. The results of this study may assist with understanding the dynamics and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and can serve as a beneficial tool for decision-making and risk management to investors, traders, financial institutions and many other participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.