preprints.org > public health and healthcare > other > doi: 10.20944/preprints202404.1063.v1

Preprint Essay Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 15 April 2024 / Approved: 16 April 2024 / Online: 16 April 2024 (15:55:14 CEST)

Rationale - From the year 1 anno Domini until 1855 with the third Plague, major pandemics occurred on average every 348 years. Since then, they have occurred on average every 33 years, with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) now underway.Even though current technologies have greatly improved the way of life of human beings, COVID-19, with more than 700 000 000 cases and 6 950 000 deaths worldwide by the end of 2023, reminds us that much remains to be done. Objective - Given the frequency and duration of recent pandemics, it might be wise to start thinking about preventative methods to minimize the impact of future pandemics. This report looks back at 18 months of COVID-19, from March 2020 to August 2021, with the aim of highlighting potential solutions that could prove practical, or even essential, for the future. Material - COVID-19 data, including case and death reports, were extracted daily from the Worldometer platform to build a database for macroscopic analysis of the spread of the virus around the world. Demographic data were integrated into the COVID-19 database for a better understanding of the spatial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in cities/municipalities. Method - Without loss of generality, we only analyzed data from the top 30 (out of 200 and above) countries ranked by total number of COVID-19 cases. Statistics (regression, t-test (p < 0.05), correlation, mean ± std, etc.) were carried out with Excel software. Spectral analysis, using Matlab software, was also used to try to better understand the temporal spread of COVID-19. Results - A good linear correlation was observed between the number of cases and the respective number of deaths depending on the country, i.e. y = 0.0121x + 19559 with R² = 0.8042. The analysis then focused mainly on the number of cases.This study showed that COVID-19 mainly affects G20 countries. The most interesting result is that cities/municipalities with high population density are a powerful activator of the spread of the virus. The current demographic context seems to be becoming a societal problem that must be addressed adequately.Spectral analysis highlighted that the very first months of spread of COVID-19 were the most notable with a strong expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. On the other hand, the following six months showed a certain stability due mainly to multiple preventive measures such as confinement, closure of non-essential services, wearing of masks, distancing of 2 meters, etc. Discussion - Analysis of case and death data showed that COVID-19 mainly affects G20 countries. Nevertheless, the most interesting result of this study is that cities and municipal areas with population densities of several thousand inhabitants per square kilometer largely favored the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It is believed that such a demographic context is becoming a societal problem that developed countries around the world will sooner or later face and therefore needs to be adequately addressed. Conclusion - COVID-19 has made us understand that it is time to act both preventatively and curatively. Phenomenological insights suggest that the next pandemic could occur in less than 50 years. It may be time to launch new societal projects aimed at relieving congestion in densely populated regions.

COVID-19; pandemics; population density; prevention; public health

Public Health and Healthcare, Other

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