preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > environmental science > doi: 10.20944/preprints202401.1880.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 25 January 2024 / Approved: 26 January 2024 / Online: 26 January 2024 (09:41:47 CET)

This paper aims to explore how climate change affects electricity generation (fossil-fueled power plants, hydroelectric stations, wind systems and photovoltaics) and energy demand in residential buildings in Greece for the period up to 2050. In both cases RCP scenarios results are considered in the appropriate spatial and temporal dimension. Energy supply technologies were examined through statistical regression models and/or mathematical equations correlating climatic parameters with energy productivity. With respect to energy demand, bottom-up models were developed that integrate behavioral and policy aspects. The analysis showed that climate change is expected to mainly affect electricity generation from hydro and thermal power plants, while the impacts on solar and wind energy are significantly lower. The range of impacts on hydro potential and electricity generation depends on the geographical location of the power plants and shows significant uncertainty due to the corresponding uncertainty in climate models estimates regarding precipitation and runoff changes while showing significant geographical variations. With respect to energy demand, climate change is expected to affect energy consumption, but the expected range of effects depends on both the implementation and the characteristics (deep vs. shallow renovation) of measures for upgrading the thermal performance of the building stock and the intensity of climate change.

climate change; impacts; energy; power generation; demand

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

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