Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Method for Developing Fragility Curves for Soil Liquefaction Consistent with the Seismic Hazard Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Version 1 : Received: 28 December 2023 / Approved: 28 December 2023 / Online: 28 December 2023 (07:02:15 CET)

How to cite: Huang, F.; Wang, G.S. A Method for Developing Fragility Curves for Soil Liquefaction Consistent with the Seismic Hazard Using Monte Carlo Simulation. Preprints 2023, 2023122163. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202312.2163.v1 Huang, F.; Wang, G.S. A Method for Developing Fragility Curves for Soil Liquefaction Consistent with the Seismic Hazard Using Monte Carlo Simulation. Preprints 2023, 2023122163. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202312.2163.v1

Abstract

The aim of this study is to present a method for developing fragility curves for soil liquefaction that are consistent with the seismic hazard using Monte Carlo simulation. This method can account for all the uncertainties and variabilities of the input parameters. The seismic parameters of earthquake magnitude (M) and the associated peak ground acceleration (PGA) are considered together for the liquefaction assessment. The liquefaction potential and damages obtained by this method are more realistic. A case study is performed using data from a sand-boil site in Yuanlin, Changhua county, where liquefaction occurred during the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan in 1999. The results show that the liquefaction potential index, IL, the post-liquefaction settlement, St, and the liquefaction probability index, PW, are all suitable parameters for evaluating the liquefaction damages. The fragility curves for soil liquefaction developed by this method can support the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) approach, provide guidance for liquefaction evaluation to the ‘Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System’-TELES, and serve as a basis for scenario simulation and an earthquake early warning system for liquefaction damages.

Keywords

soil liquefaction; fragility curve; hazard consistent; Monte Carlo simulation

Subject

Engineering, Civil Engineering

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