Ideki, O.; Lupo, A.R. Evaluation of Bias-Corrected GCM CMIP6 Simulation of Sea Surface Temperature over the Gulf of Guinea. Climate2024, 12, 19.
Ideki, O.; Lupo, A.R. Evaluation of Bias-Corrected GCM CMIP6 Simulation of Sea Surface Temperature over the Gulf of Guinea. Climate 2024, 12, 19.
Ideki, O.; Lupo, A.R. Evaluation of Bias-Corrected GCM CMIP6 Simulation of Sea Surface Temperature over the Gulf of Guinea. Climate2024, 12, 19.
Ideki, O.; Lupo, A.R. Evaluation of Bias-Corrected GCM CMIP6 Simulation of Sea Surface Temperature over the Gulf of Guinea. Climate 2024, 12, 19.
Abstract
The study used ERA5 reanalysis SST dataset re-gridded to a common grid of 0.25° X 0.25° spatial resolution (latitude × longitude) for the historic (1940–2014) and projected (2015–2100). The SST simulation under the SSP5-8.5 scenarios was carried out with output from 8 General Circulation Models (GCMs). The bias-corrected dataset was developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping EQM for the historical (1940-2015) and the future (2030-2100) while the CMIP6 model simulation was evaluated against the ERA5 monthly rainfall observed data for monthly and annual sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Gulf of Guinea. ). The CMIP6 models simulation for SST projection from 2030-20100 based on SSPS 8.5 SST is projected to increase by 4.61o (31oC) in 2030 to 35oC in 20100 in the coastal GOG and 2.6oC in the Western GOG (Sahel). The correlation coefficient (r) was used to evaluate the performance of the CMIP6 models and the analysis showed ACCESS 0.1,CAMS CSM 0.2, CAN ESM 0.3, CMCC, 0.3 and MCM, 0.4 indicating that all models performed well in capturing the climatological pattern of the SST. The.CMIP6 bias corrected model simulations showed increased SST warming over the GOG will be higher in the Far period end than the Near-term climate. The study affirmed that the CMIP6 projections can be used for multiple assessments related to climate and hydrological impact studies and for the development of mitigation measures under a warming climate
Keywords
sea surface temperature; CMIP6; bias correction; general circulation model; gulf of guinea; western sahel; climate extremes
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
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