Version 1
: Received: 7 July 2023 / Approved: 12 July 2023 / Online: 13 July 2023 (11:22:43 CEST)
How to cite:
Amorim, F.; Guimarães, C.; Marcomin, G.; Batalha, M. O.; Afonso, P. Forecasting costs and risk of corn and soybean crops through Monte Carlo simulation. Preprints2023, 2023070884. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.0884.v1
Amorim, F.; Guimarães, C.; Marcomin, G.; Batalha, M. O.; Afonso, P. Forecasting costs and risk of corn and soybean crops through Monte Carlo simulation. Preprints 2023, 2023070884. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.0884.v1
Amorim, F.; Guimarães, C.; Marcomin, G.; Batalha, M. O.; Afonso, P. Forecasting costs and risk of corn and soybean crops through Monte Carlo simulation. Preprints2023, 2023070884. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.0884.v1
APA Style
Amorim, F., Guimarães, C., Marcomin, G., Batalha, M. O., & Afonso, P. (2023). Forecasting costs and risk of corn and soybean crops through Monte Carlo simulation. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.0884.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Amorim, F., Mário Otávio Batalha and Paulo Afonso. 2023 "Forecasting costs and risk of corn and soybean crops through Monte Carlo simulation" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202307.0884.v1
Abstract
In Brazil, the production of corn and soybeans has been growing significantly in recent years. Considering that the strategies for investing in the production of these crops are conditioned by production costs and risk, the objective of this article is to propose a simulation model that indicates the trend of production costs for these commodities, considering the dispersion and correlation of selected key variable prices and corn and soybean production costs practiced between the years of 2018 and 2022. Fifty specialized companies in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, provided data for this study, and Monte Carlo simulations showed that the total cost of corn production/ha is between USD 600.00 and USD 1150.00, with a level of certainty of 84.7%, and soybeans are in the range of USD 260.00 to USD 420.00, with a level of certainty of 86.4%. The model evidenced a trend of decreasing production costs for the crops for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 harvests, as the input with the greatest impact (fertilizer) is showing a downward trend. On the other hand, costs related to labor, soybean seed, and fungicides are showing an upward trend, while dolomitic limestone corrective remains stable.
Keywords
commodity market; production costs; cost trends; agricultural inputs, corn production, soybean production
Subject
Business, Economics and Management, Business and Management
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
