ApSimon, H.; Oxley, T.; Woodward, H.; Mehlig, D.; Holland, M.; Reeves, S. Integrated Assessment Modelling of Future Air Quality in the UK to 2050 and Synergies with Net-Zero Strategies. Atmosphere2023, 14, 525.
ApSimon, H.; Oxley, T.; Woodward, H.; Mehlig, D.; Holland, M.; Reeves, S. Integrated Assessment Modelling of Future Air Quality in the UK to 2050 and Synergies with Net-Zero Strategies. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 525.
ApSimon, H.; Oxley, T.; Woodward, H.; Mehlig, D.; Holland, M.; Reeves, S. Integrated Assessment Modelling of Future Air Quality in the UK to 2050 and Synergies with Net-Zero Strategies. Atmosphere2023, 14, 525.
ApSimon, H.; Oxley, T.; Woodward, H.; Mehlig, D.; Holland, M.; Reeves, S. Integrated Assessment Modelling of Future Air Quality in the UK to 2050 and Synergies with Net-Zero Strategies. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 525.
Abstract
Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) has been successfully used in the development of international agreements to reduce transboundary pollution in Europe, based on the GAINS model of IIASA. At a national level in the UK a similar approach has been taken with the UK Integrated Assessment Model, UKIAM, superimposing pollution abatement measures and behavioural change on energy projections designed to meet targets set for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and allowing for natural and imported contributions from other countries and shipping. This paper describes how UKIAM has been used in development of proposed targets for reduction of fine particulate PM2.5 in the Environment Act, exploring scenarios encompassing different levels of ambition up to 2050 with associated health and other environmental benefits. There are two PM2.5 targets, an annual mean concentration target setting a maximum concentration to be reached by a future year, and a population exposure reduction target with benefits for health across the whole population. The work goes further, to also demonstrate links to social deprivation. There is a strong connection between climate measures aimed at reducing net GHG emissions to zero by 2050 and future air quality, which may be positive or negative, as illustrated by sectoral studies for road transport where electrification of the fleet needs to match the evolution of energy production, and for domestic heating where use of wood for heating is an air quality issue. UKIAM has been validated against air pollution measurements and other modelling, but there are many uncertainties including future energy projections. New work is beginning to link UKIAM directly with the TIMES model addressing future energy projections, to explore different uptake scenarios for hydrogen production and use with respect to air quality.
Keywords
integrated assessment modelling; PM2.5 concentrations; exceedance of WHO guideline
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Pollution
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
