Version 1
: Received: 22 July 2020 / Approved: 23 July 2020 / Online: 23 July 2020 (12:32:04 CEST)
How to cite:
Idowu, T.; Waswa, R.; Lasisi, K.; Mubea, K.; Nyadawa, M.; Kiema, J. B. Towards Achieving Sustainability of Coastal Environments: Urban Growth Analysis and Prediction of Lagos, State Nigeria. Preprints2020, 2020070560. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202007.0560.v1
Idowu, T.; Waswa, R.; Lasisi, K.; Mubea, K.; Nyadawa, M.; Kiema, J. B. Towards Achieving Sustainability of Coastal Environments: Urban Growth Analysis and Prediction of Lagos, State Nigeria. Preprints 2020, 2020070560. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202007.0560.v1
Idowu, T.; Waswa, R.; Lasisi, K.; Mubea, K.; Nyadawa, M.; Kiema, J. B. Towards Achieving Sustainability of Coastal Environments: Urban Growth Analysis and Prediction of Lagos, State Nigeria. Preprints2020, 2020070560. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202007.0560.v1
APA Style
Idowu, T., Waswa, R., Lasisi, K., Mubea, K., Nyadawa, M., & Kiema, J. B. (2020). Towards Achieving Sustainability of Coastal Environments: Urban Growth Analysis and Prediction of Lagos, State Nigeria. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202007.0560.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Idowu, T., Maurice Nyadawa and John Bosco Kiema. 2020 "Towards Achieving Sustainability of Coastal Environments: Urban Growth Analysis and Prediction of Lagos, State Nigeria" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202007.0560.v1
Abstract
The most extensive urban growths in the next 30 years are expected to occur in developing countries. Lagos, Nigeria - Africa’s second most populous megacity- is a prime example. To achieve more sustainable and resilient cities, there is a need for modeling the urban growth patterns of major cities and analyzing their implications. In this study, the urban growth of Lagos state was modeled using the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network for the transition modeling and the Markov Chain analysis for the change prediction, achieving a model accuracy of 81.8%. An innovative visual validation of the model results using the ArcGIS was combined with kappa correlation statistics. The results show that by 2031, built-up areas will be the most spatially extensive LULC class in the study area with percentage coverage of 34.1% as opposed to 9% in 1986. The coverage of bare areas is also expected to increase by 53% between 2016 and 2031. Conversely, 24.9% and 68.3% loss of forestlands and wetlands respectively, are expected between 2016 and 2031. In view of the 11th goal of SDGs which focuses on achieving sustainable cities and communities, the objectives of African Union’s Agenda 2063, and based on the urban growth trends observed, the study recommends a prioritization of vertical expansion as opposed to the current horizontal urban growth trends in the study area.
Keywords
Urbanization growth prediction; Sustainable development, Land Change Modeler; IDRISI Selva; Land use land cover; Coastal cities; Lagos; Markov Chain; Multi-Layer Perceptron; Sustainability; Agenda 2063
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Sustainable Science and Technology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
