preprints.org > public health and healthcare > public health and health services > doi: 10.20944/preprints202401.0333.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 3 January 2024 / Approved: 4 January 2024 / Online: 4 January 2024 (07:32:40 CET)

All vaccines exhibit specific and nonspecific effects. Specific effects are shown by the efficacy against the target pathogen, while nonspecific effects can be detected by the change in all-cause mortality. The real-world non-COVID-19 all-cause mortality (NCACM) data for the population of England between January 2021 and May 2023 was assessed. All vaccines administered were based on the original Wuhan antigen. Each gender and age group, along with COVID-19 variant shows its own unique NCACM vaccination benefit/disbenefit time profile. The efficacy of COVID-19 vaccination against COVID-19 disease/death per se is undisputed, however, the nonspecific outcomes of COVID–19 vaccination is far more nuanced than have been widely appreciated. This confirms an earlier study on the unanticipated nonspecific effects of influenza vaccination against all-cause winter mortality. Interestingly, a high proportion of NCACM beneficial effects occurred during the first 21 days following COVID-19 vaccination, while the worst example of increased NCACM occurred during the fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccination in 19–40-year-olds for the interval >21 days post vaccination which led to NCACM 3- to 10-times higher than in the unvaccinated. By the time of the Omicron variant, NCACM outcomes in those aged 90+ are mostly adverse. The beneficial nonspecific effects of COVID-19 vaccination increase with age and reach their maximum effect during the second week post vaccination for age groups below 50 years, rising to during the third week for those aged 70+. Finally, we discuss the mechanisms by which COVID-19 vaccination could induce wider nonspecific effects. Most of these mechanisms seem to depend on gene regulation by noncoding RNAs which also interact with mRNAs. We suggest that further international studies are required to discern the nonspecific NCACM effects of the different COVID-19 variants other than the three variants prevalent in the UK, and different types/manufacturer of COVID-19 vaccines which have been employed around the world. We can only speculate regarding the nonspecific effects of the COVID-19 vaccines administered to persons with an asymptomatic infection, and during vaccine waning. Vaccines not only need to be effective against the target pathogen, as primarily determined by antibody production, but need to minimize any unanticipated adverse nonspecific effects against all-cause mortality.

COVID–19; vaccination; all-cause mortality; age; gender; complex system; pathogen interference; seasonality; miRNAs; negative vaccine effectiveness; nonspecific vaccine effects

Public Health and Healthcare, Public Health and Health Services

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