Article
Version 1
Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Forecasting Seasonal Inflow to Reservoirs Combining Copula-Based Bayesian Network Method with Drought Forecasting
Version 1
: Received: 4 January 2018 / Approved: 5 January 2018 / Online: 5 January 2018 (05:01:45 CET)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Kim, K.; Lee, S.; Jin, Y. Forecasting Quarterly Inflow to Reservoirs Combining a Copula-Based Bayesian Network Method with Drought Forecasting. Water 2018, 10, 233. Kim, K.; Lee, S.; Jin, Y. Forecasting Quarterly Inflow to Reservoirs Combining a Copula-Based Bayesian Network Method with Drought Forecasting. Water 2018, 10, 233.
Abstract
Especially for drought periods, the higher the accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasting, the more reliable the water supply from a dam. The article focuses on probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to reservoirs and determines estimates from the probabilistic seasonal inflow according to drought forecast results. The probabilistic seasonal inflow was forecasted by a copula-based Bayesian network employing a Gaussian copula function. Drought forecasting was performed by calculation of the standardized streamflow index value. The calendar year is divided into four seasons; the total inflow volume of water to a reservoir for a season is referred to as the seasonal inflow. Seasonal inflow forecasting curves conforming to drought stages produce estimates of probabilistic seasonal inflow according to the drought forecast results. The forecasted estimates of seasonal inflow were calculated by using the inflow records of Soyanggang and Andong dams in the Republic of Korea. Under the threshold probability of drought occurrence ranging from 50 to 55 %, the forecasted seasonal inflows reasonably matched critical drought records. Combining the drought forecasting with the seasonal inflow forecasting may produce reasonable estimates of drought inflow from the probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to a reservoir.
Keywords
drought; copula; Bayesian network; inflow; reservoir
Subject
Engineering, Civil Engineering
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Comments (0)
We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our Diversity statement.
Leave a public commentSend a private comment to the author(s)
* All users must log in before leaving a comment