ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0114.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Climate change; vulnerability; adaptation; health vulnerability index, Mozambique
Online: 2 June 2023 (02:55:34 CEST)
Climate change (CC) poses severe consequences, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates may escalate by 2050 without significant climate and development action. The health impacts are diverse, encompassing communicable and non-communicable diseases. Mozambique, a climate-vulnerable nation, has experienced significant natural disasters in the past 42 years, impacting its health system. This study aims to assess Mozambique’s health sector vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change. Following a methodology proposed by the World Health Organization and Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a six-step vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted. The Health Vulnerability Index (HVI), integrating historical climate, epidemiological, and socio-economic data at the district level (n=162), was computed using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity dimensions. The Results revealed spatial patterns in exposure to climate variables, extreme weather events, and variations in sensitivity and adaptive capacity across the country. The HVI mirrored the exposure findings. Notably, high vulnerability was observed in several districts, while major urban centers displayed lower vulnerability. These findings highlight the country’s vulnerability to climate change and underscore the potential for adverse impacts on livelihoods, the economy, and human health. The study provides a foundation for developing strategies and adaptation actions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0192.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Safety Research Keywords: rural village; earthquake; vulnerability index; vulnerability analysis; damage matrix
Online: 10 November 2021 (08:26:28 CET)
This study investigated and classified typical structures in rural village and analyzed the vulnerability of various typical types of structures. Based on the statistics of earthquake damages with magnitudes above 5 from 1996 to 2013 in China, the damage matrixes of different types of structures in rural village are obtained. And The vulnerability index and the vulnerability equation of structure are crucial to assess the earthquake losses of typical structures under different magnitudes earthquakes. According to the seismic loss of different types of structures under different earthquake magnitudes, there are possible to improve the seismic resilience of the buildings in rural village. Moreover, the regional vulnerability is analyzed by β probability distribution function, and the comprehensive seismic performance index of different types of agricultural buildings in the region is obtained. The main research is to predict the loss of different types of structures under different earthquake magnitudes in the future, and to provide technical support for different types of building in rural village reinforcement.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0047.v1
Online: 2 August 2022 (08:04:43 CEST)
The paper will analyze the pressures and vulnerabilities of the consolidated city from two perspectives: technical and social. Some design and pragmatic experiences conducted by the author in his teaching and research experience first at the Department of Urbanism of TUDelft in the Netherlands and currently at the PDTA Department of La Sapienza University of Rome will be introduced and analyzed. In the first research activity, whose case study is Rotterdam, all urban vulnerabilities related to climate change will be analyzed while in the second one, conducted in Viterbo, the vulnerability related to the hull of social inclusion, poor accessibility and psycho-social stress that plague our established cities will be treated. The two areas of study, different in size and spatial governance tools, are comparable because they allow deciphering the city's risks through lines of intervention that could serve as best practices and serve the urban planning disciplinary update also allowing to define a reflection on morphology and fabrics and on the shape of the city itself. Both teaching and research activities in which the author is involved allow the topic of urban vulnerability to be addressed with a broad exploratory scope that, in the final stage, hypothesizes design intervention on the neighborhood scale, identified as the most appropriate to provide plausible climate and social adaptation and mitigation responses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1886.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: India; Urban; Climate Vulnerability; Disaster resilience; Climate hazards; Vulnerability Assess-ment framework
Online: 26 May 2023 (07:59:12 CEST)
There has been an increase in the inefficiencies of urban infrastructure services in Indian cities as a result of rapid and unplanned urbanization (UNDP, 2017). Indian cities have grown multidimensional as a result of massive industrializa-tion and technological spread backed by globalization impacting the early 2000. It has transformed the city fabric and the associated challenges. Therefore, an Urban Climate Vulnerability Assessment (UCVA) is needed to identify, target and recognize climate vulnerable urban cities, sectors, or populations. The UCVA framework consists of seven broad thematic indicators — physical, hazard, social, demographic, financial provisioning, infrastructure and admin-istration vulnerabilities, and their sub indicators to represent the climate vul-nerability of Indian cities. This assessment is for seven Indian cities namely Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Srinagar, Shillong, and Ahmedabad which were selected based on their geographical location, population, ecosystem types and hazards/ hazard trends to understand and assess the respective vul-nerabilities. The Assessment is done through a comprehensive approach using a robust and predictive qualitative framework. It helps in determining respec-tive risks and in improving community resilience to the climate hazards by in-tegrated planning and improved preparedness. UCVA can support as a deci-sion support mechanism for devising suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies for building urban climate resilience.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0654.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Southwest Ethiopia; Farming Communities; Climate change; Perception, Vulnerability; Capital; Livelihood vulnerability index
Online: 20 April 2023 (10:56:29 CEST)
This study assesses the perception and vulnerability of the farming communities to climate change in the southwestern parts of Ethiopia. Data were collected from 442 households in four districts: Jimma Arjo, Bako Tibe, Chewaka, and Sekoru. The vulnerability of the farming communities was assessed using the households’ livelihood vulnerability index. A total of 40 indicators were applied to calculate household livelihood vulnera-bility to climate change, which were categorized into five major capitals: natural, social, financial, physical, and human. The household percep-tions of climate change results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between climate change perceptions and changes in rainfall pattern (75.6%, p<0.001), temperature pattern (69.7%, p<0.001), drought (41.6%, p=0.016), flood (44.1%, p=0.000), and occurrence of early (53.2%, p<0.001) and late rain (55.9%, p<0.001). The results showed that households in Sekoru district were the most vulnerable (0.61), while Jimma Arjo district were less vulnerable (0.47) to the effect of climate change. The vulnerability of the households in the study areas is mainly related to the occurrence of drought, lack of much-needed infrastructure facilities and weak institutional support. Links with the financial organization are also lacking among the household. The findings of this study will support policymakers to design climate change adap-tation strategies to combat climate change impacts. To support disaster risk management on the one hand and increase the resilience of vulnera-ble societies to climate change on the other hand, we recommend a detailed assessment in the remaining districts of the region.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1106.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: sensor networks; risk; security; vulnerability
Online: 18 October 2023 (10:21:41 CEST)
in our increasingly interconnected world, sensor networks are critical in gathering and sending data for various applications, from environmental monitoring and industrial automation to healthcare and smart cities. However, as sensor networks expand in importance, so does the need to solve the multidimensional concerns of security, privacy, and forensics. This article explores the complex world of sensor network security, the delicate balance between data privacy and utility, and the emerging area of sensor network forensics. This article focuses on risk assessment of a network.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0117.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: blockchain; cybersecurity; attacks; threats; vulnerability
Online: 11 September 2019 (05:40:01 CEST)
Blockchain technology has become one of the most popular technologies for maintaining digital transactions. From the foundation of Bitcoin to the now predominant smart contract, blockchain technology promises to induce a shift in thought about digital transactions in many fields, such as energy, healthcare, Internet of Things, cybersecurity, financial services and the supply chain. Despite blockchain technology offers many cryptography advantages such as immutability, digital signature and hashing; it has suffered from several critical cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities. In this paper, we build upon the previous studies on vulnerabilities and investigates over 60 real cybersecurity incidents that have been happening on the blockchain networks between 2009 and 2019. We categorise those incidents against the key cybersecurity vulnerabilities in blockchain technologies; and have developed a taxonomy that captures five types of cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities based on five main players in blockchain. The outcome of this research prompted concerns and research direction in developing countermeasures to alleviate these risks.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0348.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: floods; vulnerability; exposure; adaptive capacity; Uganda
Online: 24 October 2022 (05:08:58 CEST)
The research study assessed the level of household exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to cope with flood hazards in Kasese municipality, Kasese district, Uganda. The study used an indicator-based methodology. About 210 respondents were randomly sampled for interview. Individual weights for each indicator were allocated using Principal Component Analysis. Vulnerability indices were constructed at the household level and then aggregated at the division level. A Chi Square test at a significance level of 5% was used to test for differences in the level of household vulnerability. The results revealed that Nyamwamba division was most exposed while Central was least exposed to floods. The Central division was also found most sensitive while Bulembia was least sensitive to floods. Central division had better capacity to cope with floods while Bulembia had the least capacity. Results revealed a significant difference in the level of households’ vulnerability across the divisions. However, overall, Nyamwamba was found most vulnerable and Central least vulnerable to floods. About 43.8% of the households in Kasese municipality were found highly vulnerable to floods. Therefore, urgent attention by the government through policy action measures towards climate change adaptation should be given to address the high levels of vulnerability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0722.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: social expenditure; welfare; vulnerability; household; poverty
Online: 30 September 2020 (04:11:49 CEST)
We estimate the effect of household social expenditure on vulnerability to poverty using the four latest cross-sectional waves of Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS) from 1999 to 2017. Using a 3-Stage Least Square and Quantile Regression, our results show a widening consumption ex-post welfare gap between the poorest households and the non-poor households in a per-cedi social expenditure. Also, we estimate the probability of an ex-ante poverty using vulnerability to expected poverty. The results, however, indicate that regardless of poverty status, household vulnerability to poverty increased consistently between 1999 and 2017, and the very poor households showing the severest vulnerability. Hence, it is concluded that social expenditure increases the chances of a poor household falling into chronic poverty a non-poor household into transient poverty in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0275.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: liquefaction; vulnerability; earthquake; disaster mitigation; Pariaman
Online: 29 March 2019 (08:18:36 CET)
Knowledge about the liquefaction vulnerability in Pariaman city which is prone to an earthquake is very much needed in disaster mitigation based spatial planning. The liquefaction is an event of loss of the strength of the sandy soil layer caused by the vibration of the earthquake, where the liquefaction occurs in the sandy soil layer which has loose material in the form of sand that is not compact or not solid. This research was conducted by analyzing the potential of liquefaction vulnerability based on the Conus penetration to produce Microzonation of the susceptibility of subsidence due to liquefaction at 4 locations in Pariaman city, i.e., Marunggi village, Taluak village, Pauh Timur village and Padang Birik-Birik village. The Conus penetration testing is carried out using the piezocone (CPTU) method and mechanical Cunos penetration, and approach using Geographic Information System (GIS). The results showed that the potential of liquefaction was found at the sandy soil layer of sand and a mixture of sand and silt, which is characterized by the value of Cunos resistance and local resistance each smaller than 15 MPa and 150 kPa at varying depths. Based on the results of the analysis using this method, the critical conditions of liquefaction found in the medium sandy soil to solid. The fine sand layer which has the potential for liquefaction is in sand units formed from coastal deposits, coastal ridges and riverbanks. This liquefaction vulnerability zones analysis is limited to a depth of 6.00 m due to the limitations of the equipment used. The results of the analysis show that the fine sand layer which has the potential for liquefaction occurs at a depth of> 1.00-6.00 m with the division of zones, i.e., 1) High liquefaction in the sandy soil layer which has a critical acceleration (a) <0.10 g with shallow groundwater surface; 2) Medium liquefaction in the sandy soil layer which has a critical acceleration (a) between 0.10–0.20 g with shallow groundwater surface; and 3) Low and very low liquefaction in the sandy soil layer which has a critical acceleration (a) between 0.20–0.30 g with an average groundwater deep enough surface.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0123.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: sustainable; livelihood; policy; vulnerability; choice; quality
Online: 7 June 2018 (12:39:47 CEST)
This study aims to assess food security status of rural, peri-urban and urban households and role of socio-economic factors in ensuring food security. A survey was conducted to collect primary (quantitative) data from 630 respondents using proportionate sampling technique from Punjab, Pakistan. Cronbach’s Alpha reveals stability (>0.75) of data scale items. Using Dietary Intake Assessment (DIA), findings reveal urban households as highly food-secure whereas rural household as most vulnerable to food security at 2450kcal/day per person. Study indicates food price increase as the leading factor in preventing food security among households. Contrary, study identifies risk factors associated to food quality under the abundant availability and access as the new dimension to household food insecurity. Further, results of binary logit model show that socio-economic factors such as monthly income, total number of earners, education of household head and access to market are positively related with food security status whereas, social isolation, volatility in food prices and risk factors in food quality are negatively related with household food security. Therefore, study proposes educational orientation and entrepreneurial development as sustainable solution to ensure food security among masses. Besides, further country level researches are advised to deep delve the mounting menace of food security.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0578.v1
Subject: Engineering, Safety, Risk, Reliability And Quality Keywords: infrastructure damage; transportation vulnerability; roadway; risk; hazard
Online: 10 October 2023 (12:21:08 CEST)
Wildfires can be destructive to highway infrastructure. Despite the substantial number of wildfires experienced every year, research on the physical impacts of wildfire on highways has been understudied. This research examines historical and potential future highway physical damage from wildfires. To accomplish our research objectives, we examined three major areas related to physical harm to highways and the consequences of that damage – physical characteristics, roadway impacts, and traffic impacts. These categories were subsequently broken into additional metrics, the first being physical characteristics, which includes length of highway affected and reduced average daily traffic (RADT) impacts during the event. Roadway impacts were broken into the number of trees requiring removal (those that present a danger either standing or fallen), pavement damage (burning asphalt concrete), slope/rock scaling (loose hazard rocks/vegetation), and structural damage (guardrail, signs, and delineators). Traffic impacts included the need for traffic control, road closures required, and reduced annual average daily traffic (RAADT) impacts for the year. The physical characteristics on the three highways researched during the 2020 Oregon Labor Day wildfires (Beachie Creek, Archie Creek, and Holiday Farm) indicated less than 61% of the highways were affected. The highway impacts, which included damage from hazard trees, damage to various structures – guardrail, signs, and delineators as well as bridges, slope/rock scaling damage and pavement destruction – averaged 34% for the three highways, while the three of eight arterial highway routes studied in the Oregon Cascades saw a 21% reduction in AADT. Results from this study can be used not only to assess physical damage to highways from wildfires, but as a baseline for measuring and assessing potential future wildfire highway impacts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0762.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Naturtejo Geopark; Groundwater; Vulnerability; DRASTIC; DRASTICAI; GIS
Online: 31 March 2021 (12:04:28 CEST)
Groundwater vulnerability assessment has become a useful tool for groundwater pollution pre-vention. Groundwater vulnerability maps provide useful data to protect groundwater resources. The identification of agricultural patterns is an important issue for optimized land management. The Tagus river watershed is the backbone of this survey. Naturtejo UNESCO Global Geopark, in central inland Portugal, corresponds to a rural territory. Intensive agricultural practices showed a rising tendency in the last decades. The most internationally used method for vulnerability evaluation is the DRASTIC index. In this survey, the DRASTICAI index is introduced. A new at-tribute - Anthropogenic Influence - is here added. Five levels of growing vulnerability, from low to high, can be here acknowledged. Idanha-a-Nova municipality is the most affected by intensive farming activities. A robust assessment of groundwater quality has a key role. Climate change scenarios and water scarcity are important issues in years to come. Therefore, optimized groundwater management is essential to consider in policy-making strategies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0572.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: waterlogging; vulnerability; risk; participatory survey; GIS; Chattogram
Online: 27 January 2021 (16:48:08 CET)
In recent years, rainfall-induced waterlogging has become a common hazard in the highly urbanized coastal city of Chattogram, Bangladesh resulting in high magnitude of property damage and economic loss. Therefore, the primary objective of this research is to prepare a waterlogging inventory map and understand the spatial variation of the risk by means of hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerability of waterlogging. In this research, the inventory map and factors influencing waterlogging hazard were determined from a participatory survey and other spatial data including land elevation, population, and structural data were collected from secondary sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process was applied to measure the hazard intensity and the exposure and vulnerability were estimated by overlaying the spatial data onto the hazard intensity map. A total of 58 locations in 22 wards have been identified as waterlogging affected, which covers ~8.42% of the city area. Obtained waterlogging vulnerability index map suggests that ward no. 5, 6, 16, 17, and 33 are greatly vulnerable to waterlogging in terms of their social, infrastructure, critical facilities, economic and environmental vulnerability. We show that ~2.71% of the study area is at very high risk, while the risk score is considerably higher for ward no. 5, 8, 17, 19, and 33.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0303.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Aquatic Science Keywords: Livelihoods; Sustainability; Vulnerability; Small-scale Fishers; Bangladesh
Online: 24 June 2020 (14:34:34 CEST)
Small-scale fishers are considered as one of the most vulnerable communities in Bangladesh but very few studies focused on the livelihood sustainability and vulnerabilities of this professional group. A fieldwork in lower Padma and upper Meghna hilsa sanctuaries identifies different livelihood characters and associated vulnerabilities of the fishers. A conceptual framework known as Sustainable Livelihood Approaches (SLA) has been introduced to analyses the qualitative and quantitative data. The insights of the livelihood strategies provide on small-scale fishers and fisheries management have been explained and explored. Fishers are found solely dependent on fishing, economically insolvent and neglected. In addition, some socio-economic abstractions such as low income, credit insolvency, lack of substitute earning flexibility make them more vulnerable. A number of effective suggestions are elicited from fishers’ perceptions, the implementation of which is crucial to ensure livelihood sustainability of the small-scale fishers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0300.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: charcoal fuel; deforestation; electricity; livelihood; resilience; vulnerability
Online: 28 June 2019 (12:40:09 CEST)
Kampala is the capital city of Uganda. Over the years the population growth in the city has more than doubled, and this has increased the demand for energy. However, electricity and gas are not only limited in supply but are also expensive for the majority of the households hence the use of charcoal remains the main source of energy. There is little known about the energy situation in big cities of Africa, and Kampala is not an exception. Therefore, we examine the urban nexus amidst energy poverty, vulnerability, and resilience with a focus on; the role of charcoal in the urban Nexus in Kampala Uganda. Literature review and content analysis of scientific materials such as journal articles and reports were done. Charcoal fuel in Kampala and surrounding urban areas does not only facilitate cooking meals and boing water for over 95% of households but also a source of livelihood for many women in the nexus. This process impacts not only on energy use but also the entire water, energy, and food system in the urban nexus. Even though charcoal fuel doubles as a source of household income, it is greatly responsible for most deforestation. Furthermore, charcoal production also accounts for prolonged droughts hence impacting on water and food supply in the nation. Therefore, we propose subsidizing alternatives such as gas and electricity to reduce the complete reliance on charcoal.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0042.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: geospatial economic supply; biomass; risk assessment; vulnerability
Online: 4 April 2018 (04:17:33 CEST)
Assessing the economic supply of biomass in a geospatial context while accounting for risk from natural disasters was studied. Risk levels were estimated from a component of factors which included: population density, road density, federal ownership, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ecoregions, and Presidential Disaster Declarations. The Presidential Disaster Declarations included risks due to: coastal storm, drought, fire, flood, freezing, hurricane, mud land slide, severe ices, severe storms, snow, tornado, and tropical storm. Presidential Disaster Declarations included summaries based on a short-term time period from 2000-2011, and on a long-term time period from 1964-2011. Risk categories were developed as a function of the number of disaster declarations, agricultural-to-forest land ratio, average road density, and average population density. A significant contribution of the research was the allocation of spatially explicit data using GIS technology at the 5-digit zip code tabulation area. The average area for 5-digit ZCTAs in the Eastern U.S. study region was approximately 169 kilometers2. Long-term risk (1964-2011) from disaster declarations had a greater impact on the economic availability of biomass supply relative to short-term declarations (2000-2011). The greatest risk to biomass supply came from population density relative to the other risk factors studies. Of the 25,044 total ZCTAs, 12,256 ZCTAs were in locations that did not include population density ≥ 150/km2, road density ≥ 14 km/km2, federal ownership, and US Environmental Protection Agency Level III ecoregions. Of the remaining 12,256 ZCTAs, 26.8% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on short-term declarations (2000-2011) and 29.4% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on long-term declarations (1964-2011). Lower risk locations for procuring biomass supply for both short-term and long-term declarations, across all risk factors, were in southern Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0172.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Coastal Disasters; Vulnerability; Disaster Risk.
Online: 21 March 2017 (16:41:53 CET)
This study integrated coastal-watershed models and combined a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039. Database from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze sea level rise using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using WWM (Wind Wave Model) and POM (Princeton Ocean Model). Coastal inundation was then simulated via WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise in an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient, and reaches the high risk level. The assessment provides that important information for making adaption policy in the mid-western coast of Taiwan.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0959.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: community; inner areas; (social) vulnerability; depopulation; sustainability; youth.
Online: 15 November 2023 (10:03:47 CET)
The essay focuses, from a sociological perspective, on the phenomenon of depopulation of Inner Areas in Italy. In this areas, younger generations, live a great inequality that exposed them to risk of social vulnerability. So, on the one hand, the desire to leave their community is growing among younger, on the other hand, the desire to deal with extreme adverse conditions is falling down. The research aims to explore the depopulation phenomenon in the context of Southern Italy, considering it as an emerging social vulnerability that impacts very deeply onto the sustainability of a social, economic and community systems such as the Molise region one. The following paper therefore presents an empirical web-survey conducted in the Molise region. The methodology used is Quantitative, and the research design is Exploratory. The essay underlines how proximity welfare can act as a flywheel to counter the depopulation Inner Areas of Italy enacted by the younger generations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0620.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Clinical Medicine Keywords: self-efficacy; stress-vulnerability; perceived stress; anxiety; hypertension
Online: 9 November 2023 (11:17:51 CET)
Abstract: Arterial hypertension is the main preventable risk factor for premature death and stroke worldwide and anxiety is a real public health problem. Stress is the common denominator for both cases. In the last 3 years, the aggressive exposure of the population to negative emotions (fear of disease in a pandemic, fear of war, financial instability) was the trigger factor. The psycho-neuro-endocrine mechanisms include the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and induce sympathetic-parasympathetic imbalance, hypercortisolemia, endothelial dysfunction, oxidative stress, inflammation, cytokine growth, and atherosclerosis. The individual’s vulnerability to stress depends on many factors, but the key role in the perception of stress belongs to immunogenic personality traits. Among them, self-efficacy is a protective factor against stress. Our research aimed to evaluate the connections between psycho-emotional factors and hypertension, using psychometric tests, to identify vulnerability to stress, perceived stress level, anxiety, self-efficacy, and psychobehavioral type, for 215 patients, 104 hypertensive and 111 non-hypertensive patients. The results of the study confirmed that there is a statistically significant difference, which requires psychological screening measures to identify patients vulnerable to stress, as well as medical education courses for doctors in the field of psychology.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0332.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Coastal hazards; Coastal ecosystems; Vulnerability
Online: 6 October 2023 (11:52:52 CEST)
Coastal ecosystems provide a wide range of goods and services for the lives of human beings and aquatic species. Nevertheless, climate-induced extreme events cause unprecedented impacts on these areas, instigating a reduction of aquatic goods and services, destruction of infrastructure, and loss of human lives. Hence, this review investigated the impacts of climate-induced coastal hazards and adaptation responses. A systematic review method was used to address the objectives of this literature review. The main data sources were Research Gate, Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed databases. A total of 40 research articles (2012-2023) were selected using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA 2020) methodology. The findings of this review revealed that Bangladesh was the leading country based on the number of studies published on the impacts of climate-induced coastal hazards and coastal adaptations (20%), followed by the USA, which accounts for about 15%. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding, and climate change and variability were the most studied climate-induced coastal hazards, each accounting for 55%, 52.5% and 52.5% respectively. Coastal hazards have had significant impacts on the fishery, water, coastal ecosystems and biodiversity, agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure sectors. Besides, they caused migration and death of humans and animals. About 35% of the articles explored the assessment of vulnerability to climate-induced hazards. Moreover, 32.5% of the articles investigated anticipated climate-induced hazards. Hard, soft, ecosystem-based, and hybrid adaptation measures were used to adapt to the impacts of diverse climate-induced coastal hazards. In conclusion, developing countries are more vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate-induced coastal hazards than developed countries. The coastal area’s vulnerability to climate change risks will continue unless all stakeholders act proactively. Thus, it is suggested that the adaptation policies of vulnerable coastal areas should give due attention to nature-based solutions to reduce the adverse impacts of coastal hazards sustainably.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0136.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Pollution Keywords: PM2.5; health vulnerability; air quality; map; public source
Online: 3 May 2023 (10:47:37 CEST)
PM2.5 levels affect human health. However, its relationship with other health vulnerability determinants has not been sufficiently explored. Furthermore, public access to PM2.5 datasets, linkable to health statistics, is not available. We built a georeferenced database and map of annual mean PM2.5 emissions and air concentrations values in Argentina in 2010 and explored their correlations with other health vulnerability determinants. We obtained data for montlhy PM2.5 values emissions and air concentrations in Argentina from public sources. We evaluated health vulnerability by the “Sanitary Vulnerability Index (SVI)”. Non-parametric correlations between variables below 0.22, corresponding to a R2=5%, were deemed meaningless. PM2.5 emissions concentrated in urban and intensive agricultural areas of Argentina. PM2.5 air concentrations were acceptable (≤10 microg/m3) in only 15% of the Argentinean territory, respectively. The correlation between air concentration of PM2.5 and human emission was meaningless. Emissions, but not air concentrations correlated >0.22 with indicators of human activity. SVI correlated meaninglessly with PM2.5 air concentration. In conclusion, PM2.5 levels were above acceptable levels in 85% of the Argentinian territory in 2010. The lack of meaningful correlations between PM2.5 and SVI suggest that these coefficients might be used in combination to assess health vulnerability. Further research is warranted.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0202.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Seismic vulnerability; Urban areas; Objective risk; Perceived risk
Online: 14 July 2022 (03:25:12 CEST)
The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact.The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, “hazard”, “exposure” and “vulnerability”. Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk.This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0083.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Disaster; Vulnerability; Women; Gender; Disaster Risk Reduction; Bangladesh
Online: 5 July 2021 (09:39:48 CEST)
This paper aims to delve into how gender dimensions observed before, during and after a disaster, have been addressed in two internationally recognised frameworks developed for reducing risks of disasters: Hyogo Framework Action (2005-2015) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). Building on a systematic review, we evaluate 33 scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles, including book chapters and websites in areas of gender, disaster risk reduction and vulnerability. This study documents a comparative picture of these two frameworks and shows the practical implications of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) by addressing women’s empowerment in the light of their active participation in disaster risk reduction process. The findings of the study suggest that the frameworks have discussed the reduction of women’s socioeconomic vulnerabilities, as well as encouraged their empowerment. Comparing the two frameworks, it appears in the current study that there has been a significant gap in the existing literature that does not explicitly document comparing and contrasting features of a gender lens in the policy documents.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0065.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; climate change; vulnerability; projections; Europe
Online: 8 March 2018 (10:16:59 CET)
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new global development trends that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1478.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Public health; health service delivery; human resources; vulnerability; sustainability
Online: 24 October 2023 (08:11:28 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected the entire world, has not only created a number of emerging issues for each country, especially in the field of public health, but has also provided a number of opportunities for risk management, alternative strategies and completely new ways of looking at challenges. This paper examines the COVID-19 pandemic response in Türkiye and the possible implications of the experience for future responses to other health emergencies and disaster risk management, based on the lessons learned. This study uses publicly available literature from government, private sector, and academic sources to analyse the conflicts, changes and lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, which are components of the World Health Organization (WHO) Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (Health EDRM) framework. The COVID-19 experience in Türkiye has several aspects, including the significant role of healthcare workers, the existence of an effective health system accustomed to emergencies, applications based on information technologies, partial transparency of public authorities in providing information, and socio-cultural environment related to cooperation on prevention strategies, including wearing masks and vaccination. Challenges in Türkiye include distance learning in schools, lockdowns that particularly affect the elderly, ensuring environmental sustainability, hesitation about the effectiveness of social/financial support programmes, socio-cultural trivialisation of pandemics after a while, and relaxation of prevention strategies. Lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic include the value of transparency in public health/healthcare information, the strengthening of all aspects of the health system in terms of health workers, and the importance of a balanced economy prepared for foreseeable risks.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1591.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: graph theory and network analysis; Copula entropy; market vulnerability
Online: 22 August 2023 (14:54:40 CEST)
With the deepening of the diversification and openness of financial system, financial vulnerability, as an endogenous attribute of financial system, becomes an important measurement of financial security. Based on network analysis, we introduce network curvature indicator improved by Copula entropy as an innovative metric of financial vulnerability. Compared with previous network curvature analysis method, CE-based curvature proposed in this paper can measure market vulnerability and systematic risk with significant advantages.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0133.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Urban flood; Decision making; Machine learning; Risk; Hazard; Vulnerability
Online: 1 March 2022 (10:18:57 CET)
Urban flood risk mapping is an important tool for the mitigation of flooding in view of human activities and climate change. Many developing countries, however, lack sufficiently detailed data to produce reliable risk maps with existing methods. Thus, improved methods are needed that can improve urban flood risk management in regions with scarce hydrological data. Given this, we estimated the flood risk map for Rasht City (Iran), applying a composition of decision-making and machine learning methods. Flood hazard maps were produced applying six state-of-the-art machine learning methods such as classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and support vector machine (SVM). Flood conditioning parameters applied in modeling were elevation, slope angle, aspect, rainfall, distance to river (DTR), distance to streets (DTS), soil hydrological group (SHG), curve number (CN), distance to urban drainage (DTUD), urban drainage density (UDD), and land use. In total, 93 flood location points were collected from the regional water company of Gilan province combined with field surveys. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision-making tool for creating an urban flood vulnerability map, which is according to population density (PD), dwelling quality (DQ), household income (HI), distance to cultural heritage (DTCH), distance to medical centers and hospitals (DTMCH), and land use. Then, the urban flood risk map was derived according to flood vulnerability and flood hazard maps. Evaluation of models was performed using receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC), accuracy, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and precision. The findings showed that the CART method is most accurate method (AUC = 0.947, accuracy = 0.892, POD = 0.867, FAR = 0.071, and precision = 0.929). The results also demonstrated that DTR, UDD, and DTUD played important roles in flood hazard modeling; whereas, the population density was the most significant parameter in vulnerability mapping. These findings indicated that machine learning methods can improve urban flood risk management significantly in regions with limited hydrological data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0006.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: sustainable tourism; tourism sensitivity; tourism vulnerability; natural disaster; earthquake
Online: 4 January 2021 (10:21:51 CET)
Despite increased global interest in the impacts of natural disasters on tourism, less study executes exploring how tourism sensitivity is addressed at the destination level. Generating a link between tourism and natural disaster management is vital in places that rely heavily on tourism and are prone to natural hazards. Ranau, Sabah (Malaysia) is one of the disaster-prone tourists' destination area. Hence, this paper applies the case study of Ranau earthquake 2015 to explore tourism sensitivity towards natural disasters. A qualitative of in-depth interview is applied to acquire information needed from the Ranau tourism entrepreneurs and operators. To analyse the qualitative data, a thematic analysis is conducted. Overall findings show that tourism activity in Ranau are identified to be sensitive towards the 2015 earthquake with a significant percentage of sensitivity level on two elements. These elements are known as Source and Power. The Source element includes tourism products, size of business, development, and natural disasters management with a significant sensitivity compared to the Power element (social capital). This provides insight to the need of specific tourism system adaptation as response to the earthquake and considering the integration of natural disaster management into tourism development to enhance long term sustainability.
SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0556.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Plant Sciences Keywords: Covid-19; indigenous people; Amazon; medicinal plants; vulnerability; resilience
Online: 22 November 2020 (11:40:54 CET)
There has been very widespread contagion of covid-19 in Kichwa indigenous communities in Ecuadorian Amazonia, but the peak of contagion has already passed, and total mortality has been remarkably low. The Kichwa people themselves typically attribute this to the widespread use of medicinal plants.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0364.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: coronavirus; urban socio-spatial vulnerability; health inequity; pandemic outbreak
Online: 17 August 2020 (11:42:07 CEST)
The pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 had begun in March of 2020 on a global scale. This outbreak has originated numerous questions for society and many challenges for public managers. The disease is worrying because it has a high propagation velocity, high lethality levels, and there is no cure. Some groups are considered more vulnerable due to pre-existing disease conditions, age-range, and living conditions. In Latin American countries, people live in different conditions than those who live in countries located in the North hemisphere, such as climatic conditions, less favorable socioeconomic conditions, different educational levels, inequality, precarious urban infrastructure, etc. These factors generate even more concern and uncertainty about the pandemic than in developed countries. This study aimed, although preliminarily, to identify areas of great socio-spatial vulnerability and susceptibility of infection of people over 60 years old of COVID-19 in Brasília, Brazil. In this research, publicly available data and information about the population characteristics and social aspects were used, all connected directly to the census sectors. With the support of Geographic Information System (GIS), a matrix was used to cross-check the data and, thereby, achieve the objective of identifying the most vulnerable sectors for people aged over 60 years old. The results point out to more than 400 census sectors classified as Extremely Vulnerable in Brasília and it should be the object of special attention for public managers to do specific health care actions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0272.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: adaptive capacity; climate change vulnerability; exposure; resilience; sensitivity; vegetation
Online: 22 May 2019 (09:55:45 CEST)
We applied a framework to assess climate change vulnerability of 52 major vegetation types in the western United States to provide spatially-explicit input to adaptive management decisions. The framework addressed climate exposure and ecosystem resilience; the latter derived from analyses of ecosystem sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Measures of climate change exposure used observed climate change (1981-2014) and then climate projections for the mid-21st century (2040-2069 RCP 4.5). Measures of resilience included (under ecosystem sensitivity) landscape intactness, invasive species, fire regime alteration, and forest insect & disease risk, and (under adaptive capacity), measures for topo-climate variability, diversity with functional species groups, and vulnerability of any keystone species. Outputs are generated per 100km2 hexagonal area for each type. As of 2014, moderate climate change vulnerability was indicated for >50% of the area of 50 of 52 types. By the mid-21st century, all but 19 types face high or very high vulnerability with >50% of the area scoring in these categories. Measures for resilience explain most components of vulnerability as of 2014, with most targeted vegetation scoring low in adaptive capacity measures and variably for specific sensitivity measures. Elevated climate exposure explains increases in vulnerability between the current and mid-century time periods.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0447.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: socio-environmental vulnerability; Barcelona; spatial analysis; qualitative methodology; GIS
Online: 19 October 2018 (11:33:48 CEST)
The city of Barcelona, like other cities in the world, suffers strong internal socio-economic inequalities. Numerous works have sought to detect, quantify, characterize and / or map existing intra-urban differences, almost always based on quantitative methodologies. With this contribution, we intend to illuminate the complementary role that qualitative methodologies can play in studies on urban socio-environmental vulnerability. We consider aspects that are not quantifiable but that may be inherent to many such vulnerable spaces, both in the constructed environment and in the social ambit. These questions are considered through selected neighborhoods of Barcelona which have been shown (in prior works, mainly studies of quantitative manufacturing) to possess elements of vulnerability including a high presence of immigrants from less-developed countries, low per capita income, aging populations, or low educational levels. The results reveal the multidimensionality of vulnerability in the neighborhoods analyzed, as well as the essential complementarity among methodologies that detect and support possible public actions aimed at reducing or eliminating intra-urban inequalities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0291.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: coastal defense; risk maps; non-engineering measure; coastal vulnerability
Online: 19 June 2018 (10:41:27 CEST)
In this study, we used the natural and anthropogenic characteristics of a coastal region to generate risk maps showing vulnerability and potential hazards, and proposed design criteria for coastal defense and land use for the various kinds of risks faced. The Yunlin coast: a first-level protection area in mid-west Taiwan, was then used as an example to illustrate the proposed design criteria. The safety of the present coastal defenses and land use of the Yunlin coastal area was assessed, and coastal protection measures for hazard prevention were proposed based on the generated risk map. The results can be informative for future coastal management and the promotion of sustainable development of coastal zones.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0367.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: vulnerability; culture; religion; agency; adaptation; perceptions; climate change; dependency
Online: 25 May 2018 (12:06:03 CEST)
Semi-arid Namibia is marginal for agricultural production. Low soil fertility combined with low and variable rainfall restrict the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who often struggle to produce enough food. Although historically communities have adopted a number of coping mechanisms, climate change threatens to further reduce agricultural production. There are many additional options available to smallholder farmers to adapt to climate change, but they are not necessarily adopting these measures despite having noticed increasing temperatures and declining rainfall. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in three villages in Onesi constituency to examine what agricultural practices smallholder crop farmers use, perception of changes in their yields, their perspective on future yields and whether they are planning on changing their agricultural practices. The results suggest that to sustain the livelihoods of rural communities in north-central Namibia support is needed from local and regional authorities, as well as traditional and religious leaders to assist with enhancing access to information, enabling information sharing on adaptation options, and increasing awareness on climate change, it’s impacts and what can be done about it. In addition to this the implementation of adaptation action also requires demonstration sites and building capacity to enable the development of self-help groups.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0127.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: vulnerability index; Maasai pastoralists; principal component analysis; climate change
Online: 18 December 2017 (17:21:00 CET)
Human adaptive responses to climate change occur at the local level, where climatic variability is experienced. Therefore analyzing vulnerability at the local level is important in planning effective adaptation options in a semi-arid environment. This study was conducted to assess vulnerability of Maasai pastoralist communities in Kajiado County, Kenya to climate change by generating vulnerability index for the communities. Data was collected using questionnaires that were administered to 305 households in the five different administrative wards (Oloosirkon/Sholinke, Kitengela, Kapetui North, Kenyawa-Poka and Ilmaroro) in Kajiado East. Vulnerability was measured as the net effect of adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to assign weights to the vulnerability indicators used for the study and also to calculate the household vulnerability index. A vulnerability map was produced using the GIS software package ArcGIS 10.2. Results showed that gender of household head, age of household head, educational level, access to extension agents, herd size, livestock diversity and access to credit facility influenced vulnerability of the Maasai pastoralists to climate change in Kajiado East. The result showed that the most vulnerable communities with the highest negative vulnerability index value are Ilpolosat (-2.31), Oloosirikon (-2.22), Lenihani (-2.05), Konza (-1.81) and Oloshaiki (-1.53). The communities with the highest positive vulnerability index values were Kekayaya (4.02), Kepiro (3.47), Omoyi (2.81), Esilanke (2.23), Kisaju (2.16) and Olmerui (2.15). We conclude that provision of basic amenities such as good roads and electricity; access to extension agents, access to credit facilities and herd mobility will reduce vulnerability of Maasai pastoralists in Kajiado east to climate change and variability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1738.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: Landslide; Spatial prediction; Vulnerability; Cross-validation; Prediction table; Landslide risk
Online: 28 November 2023 (07:18:26 CET)
This research deals with risk assessment for human life, man-made infrastructure, and agriculture in a landslide-prone area using GIS-based spatial methods. The study area landslide inventory map was prepared based on previous landslide information, aerial photograph analysis, and several field observations. A total of 550 landslides have been included with 182 debris flow and 368 soil slides. All included landslides were classified into two groups by random selection; half were used for model calibration and the rest were used for cross-validation. In the analysis, fourteen causative factors were vastly used, such as aspect, slope, curvature, elevation, topographic wetness index, forest timber diameter, forest type, forest crown density, forest age, land-use, geology, soil drainage, soil depth, and soil texture. Moreover, to identify the interaction between occurred landslides and causative factors, the affected pixels were divided into different sub-classes using a frequency ratio method. Based on the total dataset, three landslide susceptibility maps were constructed using Bayesian prediction, likelihood ratio, and fuzzy set method. By evaluating cross-validation and success rate curve, model susceptibility results were plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) was estimated. In addition, for risk assessment, each social data layer such as agriculture, house, industry, business, road, river, population intensity, monetary value, and vulnerability level was added based on the local standard and incident time and was converted into US dollars. During the analysis, each method hazard map was used with a specific group of thematic data layers. Subsequently, for preparing the probability table, study area total pixels and predictive landslide affected pixels were considered. Matching with the affected pixels, a standard of 5000 pixels was selected to run the final evaluation. Based on the results, the agricultural field showed the highest vulnerability and estimated risk of US $ 16.3 million. Further, the man-made infrastructure map showed a risk of US $ 31.3 million. The total estimated population casualties were 6.77, which was relatively similar to the published data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0065.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Science Keywords: energy systems; resilience; vulnerability; high-performance computing; IMDG; scientific workflows
Online: 2 November 2023 (00:23:09 CET)
Implementing High-Performance Computing to solve In-Memory Data Grid (IMDG)-based energy infrastructure resilience research problems in a heterogeneous environment presents a challenge to workflow management systems. Large-scale energy infrastructure needs multi-variant planning and tools to allocate and dispatch resources in IMDG taking into account the subject domain specificity, resource characteristics, and constraints and quotas for resource use. To that end, we propose a workflow management system using our Orlando Tools framework. To scale computing resources, we provide their integration and use corresponding software to determine key application parameters that can significantly impact the processed data size and the required number of allocated resources. We automated the IMDG cluster launch for the workflow executions. To demonstrate the advantage of our solution, we apply it to evaluate the resilience of the existing energy infrastructure model. Compared to similar approaches, our approach explores large infrastructures by modeling many simultaneously failed elements of different types up to the number of network elements. In terms of problem-solving efficiency and resource use, we achieve near-linear speedup with increasing the number of nodes of each resource.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0550.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: social vulnerability; natural hazards; spatial analysis; risk; severe weather; Mexico
Online: 10 October 2023 (05:44:43 CEST)
The spatial and temporal changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards in Mexico are analyzed. To this end, using census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 and a statistical method, different indices were computed, and with a GIS-based approach, patterns of social vulnerability are examined. In addition, a risk assessment test for severe weather (thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes) is made out. The results show different common social vulnerability driving factors in the three analyzed years, with root causes that have not been addressed since the beginning of the century. Likewise, a wider gap between Mexico's most and least vulnerable populations is identified. The changes in spatial patterns respond to different historical situations, such as migration, urbanization, and increased population. Also, poverty, ethnicity, and marginalization factors located in very particular regions in Mexico have remained relatively the same in the last few years. These situations have strongly influenced the spatial-temporal distribution of vulnerability in the country. The role of social vulnerability in the disaster risk to extreme events such as thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes in Mexico is fundamental to understanding changes in disaster distribution at the national level, and it is the first step to generating improvements in integrated risk management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0437.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Obstetrics And Gynaecology Keywords: nursing health promotion; literacy; positive mental health; psychological vulnerability; students
Online: 27 March 2023 (03:34:45 CEST)
ABSTRACT: Psychological vulnerability (PV) and low mental health literacy correlate negatively with higher education students' positive mental health and health behaviours. Levels of mental health literacy limit self-help, adaptative coping strategies and academic success. However, few studies examine the significant differences between students' PV, mental health literacy, positive mental health (PMH) and modifiable behaviours variables. Identifying modifiable vulnerability factors is essential when seeking and providing professional help. Method: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted to investigate the differences between modifiable behaviours and PV, mental health literacy, and PMH in higher education students. A sample of 3,600 undergraduate students was recruited, mostly female (78.8%), with an average age of 23 years (SD = 6.68). Results: The majority were women, did not exercise, were dissatisfied with sleep quality time per night (62.1% sleep less than 7 hours per night) and did not engage in leisure activities. Also, most respondents had PV and low literacy levels, particularly at F1, and 67.9% scored in the flourishing group. Results showed significant differences (p<0.001) between gender, age, sleep, exercise, diet, leisure activities and PV, and PMH and literacy. Conclusions: The results identified modifiable vulnerability factors that underpin the design of intervention-targeted programmes to promote literacy and PMH in higher education campuses in Portugal to foster students’ well-being and self-help strategies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0205.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: Social vulnerability; Public policies in coastal fisheries; Gulf of Ulloa
Online: 14 July 2022 (04:08:32 CEST)
The social vulnerability approach (SV) has set up that social inequalities and disadvantages have gone beyond monetary poverty in the last years, since the process is built at different scales. In its objectives, the SV multidimensional measurement is contemplated as a priority tool to monitor the compliance of the first goal – eliminate poverty in all its forms. Therefore, the objective of this research is to calculate the SV of the fishing communities of the Gulf of Ulloa (GU), Mexico by macro-markers to subsequently contrast them with field micro-data, and finally perform a behavior scenario, considering the current public policies restrictive to fishing in such areas. The results showed significant differences depending on the type of information used, obtaining a contingency coefficient of 83.42%, which indicates that the calculus depends strongly on the data used and suggesting that macro-data may be masking the true SV values in the area, in such a way they could be severely underestimated. Even though the context at micro-scale is not the only one, SV should be calculated to analyze the fishing communities since coastal fishery represents almost the total livelihood of the inhabitants. Nevertheless, these communities confront numerous local and global threats, and these pressures on SV put their livelihoods, well-being, food security and traditional lifestyle at risk. Therefore, the role of researching human dimensions and governance is not only basic but also urgent to turn to sustainable socioeconomic management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0265.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: COVID-19 prevention; vulnerability index; inequality; concentration index; South Africa
Online: 20 June 2022 (09:56:12 CEST)
To contain and mitigate the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, African governments have implemented non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), such as imposing travel bans, confining people to their homes and closing schools, shops and workplaces. These NPIs are likely to be less effective in circumstances where people need to leave their homes to work, collect food, water and cooking fuel or where people cannot maintain distancing due to overcrowded living environments. Using data from the nationally representative South African General Household Survey 2019, we examined individuals’ vulnerability to the risk of COVID-19 infection due to their health, socioeconomic and living circumstances. We explored socioeconomic-related inequalities in COVID-19 using concentration curve and concentration index methods. Our results showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 was disproportionately concentrated among those with low socioeconomic status. Using the Recentered Influence Function decomposition approach, we found that higher income and education had a significant and positive impact on reducing socioeconomic-related COVID-19 vulnerability. Conversely, people with lower socioeconomic status were more likely to live in circumstances that made compliance with NPI requirements almost impossible, and they were also more likely to have pre-existing health conditions that made them more vulnerable to COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0167.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Psychiatry And Mental Health Keywords: mental health; mental health literacy; psychological vulnerability; health promotion; adult
Online: 11 February 2022 (21:40:28 CET)
Resumo: Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a Saúde Mental Positiva (SPM) e a sua relação com características sociodemográficas, literacia em saúde mental e escala de vulnerabilidade psicológica (PVS) em estudantes universitários portugueses com idades compreendidas entre os 17 e os 62 anos. Foi realizado um estudo descritivo-correlacional. Uma pesquisa online foi realizada para avaliar variáveis demográficas, e vários questionários foram aplicados para avaliar saúde mental positiva, vulnerabilidade psicológica e alfabetização em saúde mental. Os dados foram coletados de 1º de novembro de 2019 a 1º de setembro de 2020. No geral, 3.405 alunos participaram do estudo. Os resultados mostram que 67,8% dos alunos revelaram um alto nível de PMH, 31,6% apresentaram um nível médio de PMH e 0,6% apresentaram um nível baixo de PMH. Os estudantes do sexo masculino relataram maior satisfação pessoal (t (3170) = -2,39, p=0,017) e autonomia (t (3170) = -3,33, p=0,001), no PMH em relação ao sexo feminino. Alunos sem bolsa pontuaram mais alto (t (3.127) = -2,04, p=0,42) no PMH do que alunos com bolsa. Estudantes que não foram deslocados de casa relataram maior (t (3170) = -1,99, p=0,047) Autocontrole em PMH do que aqueles deslocados de sua casa. Estudantes universitários com resultados de PMH mais altos têm resultados de PVS mais baixos e resultados de Alfabetização mais altos. Os achados deste estudo contribuirão para identificar as necessidades de intervenção dos alunos na PMH. Estudantes universitários com resultados de PMH mais altos têm resultados de PVS mais baixos e resultados de Alfabetização mais altos. Os achados deste estudo contribuirão para identificar as necessidades de intervenção dos alunos na PMH. Estudantes universitários com resultados de PMH mais altos têm resultados de PVS mais baixos e resultados de Alfabetização mais altos. Os achados deste estudo contribuirão para identificar as necessidades de intervenção dos alunos na PMH.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0491.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Productive capacities; Economic growth; Economic growth volatility; Structural Economic Vulnerability.
Online: 19 April 2021 (13:30:15 CEST)
Recent years' global shocks (e.g., the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic) and environmental shocks - such as natural disasters - have heightened the vulnerability of developing countries to future shocks, and can compromise their development prospects. International institutions and researchers have advocated that the strengthening of productive capacities in these countries would help them enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable development. The present paper has examined the effect of productive capacities on economic growth and economic growth volatility in developing countries, in particular when they face a high level of structural economic vulnerability. The analysis covers 117 developing countries over the period 2000-2018. It shows that productive capacities do not only promote economic growth, but also reduce economic growth volatility. On the other hand, structural economic vulnerability reduces economic growth, in particular when it exceeds a certain level, and induces greater volatility of economic growth. Interestingly, the findings suggest that productive capacities promote economic growth and reduce economic growth volatility in countries that face a high degree of structural economic vulnerability. These findings support the recommendation by international institutions and researchers that if they were to enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable economic growth, developing countries (in particular the poorest ones) should strengthen their productive capacities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0568.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Participatory mapping; Ecosystem services; Forest degradation; Deforestation; Indigenous communities; Vulnerability.
Online: 23 November 2020 (09:11:07 CET)
Agricultural expansion is altering the provision of ecosystem services and seriously affecting the well-being of the indigenous communities still living in forests. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of forest loss and degradation on the indigenous forest dependent communities of Eastern Salta, Argentina, between 2001 and 2015. First, we identified the demand area of ten final ecosystem services for 202 indigenous communities using participatory mapping data. Second, we calculated the remaining usage area using a deforestation geodatabase based on Landsat images. Third, we analyzed the significance of trends in forest productivity processing vegetation spectral indices from MODIS products. By last, we detected changes in the growing season length by evaluating monthly trends in spectral indices. Our results show a reduction of 21% in the area used by indigenous communities for capturing final ecosystem services, and significant negative trends in forest productivity for the demand area of 64% of the communities, indicating that the area of use is not only being reduced, but also remnant forest area is being degraded and the growing season is being shortened. These aspects indicate an important loss in the provision of ecosystem services that deeply affects the wellbeing of indigenous communities.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0097.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: vulnerability; resilience; rice value chains; climate change; Sub-Saharan Africa
Online: 9 August 2016 (12:09:07 CEST)
Abstract: Rice is one of the most important food crops in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change, variability, and economic globalization threaten to disrupt rice value chains across the subcontinent, undermining their important role in economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. This paper maps existing research on the vulnerability of rice value chains, synthesizes the evidence and the risks posed by climate change and economic globalization, and discusses agriculture and rural development policies and their relevance for the vulnerability of rice value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. Important avenues for future research are identified. These include the impacts of multiple, simultaneous pressures on rice value chains, the effects of climate change and variability on parts of the value chain other than production, and the forms and extent to which different development policies hinder or enhance the resilience of rice value chains in the face of climatic and other pressures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0950.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Security Systems Keywords: attacks; biometrics; Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA); online banking services; security; vulnerability
Online: 14 November 2023 (15:46:48 CET)
One of the fastest growing customer service delivery platforms is online banking. However, the increasing number of attacks on online banking platforms is driving the banks to constantly review their security. This study developed an enhanced Multi-factor authentication scheme with a track and trace capability to reduce these threats. Five modalities of authentication were incorporated in the proposed scheme: The traditional username, password, personal identification number (PIN) and one-time PIN (OTP), augmented with fingerprints or facial scans, registered smart devices, and a time locked user's location. One of the scheme's most impressive accomplishments is its capacity to seamlessly detect undesired activities and send alerts in the form of secretly obtained photographs and location triangulation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0590.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Applied Mathematics Keywords: Game theory; TU-game; Efficiency; Vulnerability, Networks; Communication situation; Myerson value
Online: 9 November 2023 (07:34:45 CET)
Defining measures of network efficiency and vulnerability for networks is a pivotal aspect in modern networking paradigms. We approach this problem from a game-theoretical perspective. We will consider networks in which actors have social or economic interests modeled by means of a cooperative game. This allows to define, for each network, a family of efficiency measures and another of vulnerability measures, parameterized by the game. The proposed measures use the within groups and the between groups Myerson values. These two values respectively measure which part of the classical allocation of Myerson corresponds to the productivity of players and which part to the intermediation costs. Also, which part of total centrality in social networks is due to communication or to beteewnness. In our proposal, the efficiency of a network is the proportion of the total productivity (or centrality) that players can retain using the network topology. The intermediation costs (and the betweenness centrality) can be viewed as a weakness with a negative impact. Then, we propose to calculate vulnerability as the proportion expent by players in intermediation payments. We explore the properties of these measures and we particularize them to several structures and particular games, also analyzing their asymptotic behaviour.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0374.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Security Systems Keywords: deep learning; transfer learning; zero-shot; vulnerability detection; abstract syntax tree
Online: 6 September 2023 (10:20:03 CEST)
In the broad context of vulnerability detection, deep learning has achieved considerable progress but faces generalization challenges in multilingual environments . We introduce a novel approach named AST-FMVD, which leverages transfer learning and abstract syntax trees. By employing semantic similarity clustering and context-aware technology, the method constructs node mapping relationships between different languages, enabling zero-shot learning in vulnerability detection. The method was validated by applying Java's vulnerability detection model in the Python domain, successfully demonstrating that AST-FMVD retains the original model's detection capabilities in the target domain. In conclusion, the proposed method offers a promising solution to the inherent problems in multi-language vulnerability detection, signifying a potential leap in the application of deep learning, transfer learning, and abstract syntax trees for improved cross-domain performance.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.2204.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Psychiatry And Mental Health Keywords: COVID-19; Social isolation stress; Neuropsychiatric disorders; Biopsychosocial vulnerability; Therapeutic strategies
Online: 1 September 2023 (07:30:29 CEST)
The COVID-19 Pandemic generated, in addition to severe symptoms, hospitalizations, and deaths worldwide, stress from the fear of the disease and social uncertainties, from restriction measures and social isolation. Stress from social isolation impacts mental health, aggravating conditions, and triggering neuropsychiatric symptoms in individuals with biopsychosocial vulnerability. During and immediately after the period of social restriction imposed by the Pandemic, the scientific community carried out several research protocols. It revealed results that relevantly demonstrate the harmful effect of the stress induced by the Pandemic situation. This review reports and discusses research results demonstrating impairments in neuropsychiatric disorders such as autism spectrum disorder, dementia, eating disorders, schizophrenia, anxiety, and depression. In addition to studies showing the effect of social isolation on disorders, research results are reported and discussed that evaluated protocols with some possible therapeutic intervention strategies during times of social restriction.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0279.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: flood risk; urban areas; vulnerability; exposure; pluvial floods; Analytic Hierarchy Process
Online: 13 April 2023 (02:45:09 CEST)
The report  shows that in many European cities the sewer system is older than 40 years, potentially reducing their ability to cope with more intense pluvial flooding  addition to climate change, urbanization is an important factor increasing the flooding risk, as it increases of impervious surfaces. Flash floods are particularly troublesome, causing not only the overloading of drainage systems , but also urban transport disruption, affecting human health, and contributing to pollution due to untreated sewage discharges . Pluvial floods in urban areas are caused by short-duration precipitation, high intensity and on small scale. Such rainfall is difficult to predict and does not always apply to catchment areas. In Poland, heavy rainfall lasts relatively short, from a few minutes to a few, at most, several hours . The method of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank the importance of criteria characterizing exposure in urban areas. The ranking is based on expert judgements. The article focuses on exposure which is one of the components of risk. Geographical Information System (GIS) is integrated with Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to evaluate exposure of urban area on pluvial floods.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0286.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: intrusion detection; vulnerability exploit; machine learning; code-reuse attack; malware detection
Online: 20 September 2022 (03:10:37 CEST)
Recent years have witnessed a rapid growth of code-reuse attacks in advance persistent threats and cyberspace crimes. Carefully crafted code-reuse exploits circumvent modern protection mechanisms and hijack the execution flow of a program to perform expected functionalities by chaining together existing codes. The sophistication and intrication of code-reuse exploits hinder the scrutinization and dissection on them. Although the previous literature has introduced some feasible approaches, effectiveness and reliability in practical applications remain severe challenges. To address this issue, we propose Horus, a data-driven framework for effective and reliable detection on code-reuse exploits. In order to raise the effectiveness against underlying noises, we comprehensively leverage the strengths of time-series and frequency-domain analysis, and propose a learning-based detector that synthesizes the contemporary twofold features. Then we employ a lightweight interpreter to speculatively and tentatively translate the suspicious bytes to open the black box and enhance the reliability and interpretability. Additionally, a functionality-preserving data augmentation is adopted to increase the diversity of limited training data and raise the generality for real-world deployment. Comparative experiments and ablation studies are conducted on a dataset composed of real-world instances to verify and prove the prevalence of Horus. The experimental results illustrate that Horus outperform existing methods on the identification of code-reuse exploits from data stream with an acceptable overhead. Horus does not rely on any dynamic executions and can be easily integrated into existing defense systems. Moreover, Horus is able to provide tentative interpretations about attack semantics irrespective of target program, which further improve system's effectiveness and reliability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0732.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: climate change; vulnerability; resilience; mental maladjustment; emergent behaviour; mass effect phenomena
Online: 30 June 2021 (11:40:56 CEST)
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our times. Its impact on human populations is not yet completely understood. Many studies have focused on single aspects with contradictory observations. However, climate change is a complex phoenomenon that cannot be adequately addressed from a single discipline's perspective. Hence, we propose a comprehensive conceptual framework on the relationships between climate change and human responses. This framework includes biological, psychological and behavioural aspects, and provides a multidisciplinary overview and critical information for focused interventions. The role of tipping points and regime shifts is explored, and a historical perspective is presented to describe the relationship between climate evolution and socio-cultural crisis. Vulnerability, resilience and adaptation are analyzed from an individual and a community point of view. Finally, emergent behaviours and mass effect phenomena are examined that account for mental maladjustment and conflicts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1114.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: zero dose children; sociodemographic profile; indicators; vulnerability; zero dose definition; immunization equity
Online: 15 June 2023 (09:36:36 CEST)
While there is a coordinated effort around reaching zero dose children and closing existing equity gaps in immunization delivery, it’s important that there is agreement and clarity around how ‘zero dose status’ is defined and what is gained and lost by using different indicators for zero dose status. There are two popular approaches used in research, program design, and advocacy to define zero dose status: one uses a single vaccine to serve as a proxy for zero dose status, while another uses a subset of vaccines to identify children who have missed all routine vaccines. We provide a global analysis utilizing the most recent publicly available DHS and MICS data to compare the number, proportion, and profile of children 12 to 23 months who are ‘penta-zero dose’ (have not received the pentavalent vaccine), ‘truly’ zero dose (have not received the BCG, polio, pentavalent, and measles vaccines), and ‘misclassified’ zero dose children (those who are penta-zero dose but have received at least one other vaccine). Our analysis includes 194,829 observations from 82 low- and middle-income countries. Globally, 14.2% of children are penta-zero dose and 7.5% are truly zero dose, suggesting that 46.5% of penta-zero dose children have had at least one contact with the immunization system. While there are similarities in the profile of children that are penta-zero dose and truly zero dose, there are key differences between the proportion of key characteristics among truly zero dose and misclassified zero dose children, including access to maternal and child health services. By understanding the extent of connection zero dose children may have with the health and immunization system and contrasting it with how much the use of a more feasible definition of zero dose may underestimate the level of vulnerability in the zero dose population, we provide insights that can help immunization programs design strategies that better target the most disadvantaged populations. If the vulnerability profiles of the truly zero dose children are qualitatively different from that of the penta zero dose children, then failing to distinguish the truly zero dose populations, and how to optimally reach them, may lead to the development of misguided or inefficient strategies for vaccinating the most disadvantaged population of children.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0778.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: environmental justice; urban heat island; extreme heat; heat vulnerability; public transportation infrastructure
Online: 12 June 2023 (07:05:42 CEST)
Extreme heat is a climate, public health, and environmental justice issue. This case study examined public transit exposure and vulnerability to extreme heat by investigating the microenvironment, land cover characteristics, and social vulnerability of heat-vulnerable bus stops in Knoxville, Tennessee. The community’s temperature and Heat Index information, bus stop point data, land cover characteristics data, and the microenvironment of bus stops (i.e., trees and shelters) were processed and mapped with ArcGIS Pro. The pictures of the microenvironment of the bus stop were collected from Google Maps, and the social vulnerability of the area where the bus stops are located was investigated by analyzing the Center for Disease and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index. Results found that the most heat-vulnerable bus stops were concentrated in West Knoxville, South, North, Northeast, and Northwest Knoxville. In addition, the most heat-vulnerable bus stops were concentrated in commercial complexes and areas a large number of systematically marginalized populations reside.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0314.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: cultural heritage; Roman Mosaic; geomorphological hazard; geophysical survey; geomorphological methods; vulnerability zoning
Online: 19 December 2022 (03:40:17 CET)
Heritage monuments are religious, historical, strategic or civil edifices and could be deteriorated, even damaged due to their exposure to natural and human induced processes. The Roman Edifice with Mosaic (II-IV A.D.), the largest one in Eastern Europe is an ancient civil edifice built on the steep cliff in the western part of Black Sea, Constanța, Romania and being exposed to geomorphological and hydrogeological processes is affected by degradation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the current state of this ancient historical site in relation with the environmental instability in order to offer scientific support for rehabilitation process through interdisciplinary and non-destructive methods. Geophysical methods had been applied to analyze comparatively the spatial variations and flows of groundwater around Roman Mosaic over 10 years. Geomorphological hazards had been inventoried and mapped. The results emphasize the state of degradation of the roman mosaic pavement and ancient walls mainly through high variations of the deposits moisture due to poor maintenance which caused suffusion, slip processes, bring the mosaic into highly vulnerability range. Zoning vulnerability map of the Roman Mosaic environment is a necessary tool for continuously improvement of risk management because emphasize clearly the sectors which still confronting with hazards.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0429.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Digital Twin; hazard; vulnerability; resilience; adaptive climate adaptation; groundwater; DK-model HIP
Online: 24 November 2022 (02:47:00 CET)
The paper analyses the national DK-model Hydrological Information and Prediction (HIP) system and HIP portal viewed as a ‘Digital Twin’ and how the introduction of real-time dynamic updating of the DK-model HIP simulations can give room for plug-in sub-models with real-time boundary conditions made available from a HIP portal. The possible feedback to a national real-time risk knowledge base during extreme events (flooding and drought) is also discussed. Under climate change conditions, Denmark is likely to experience more rain in winter, more evapotranspiration in summer, intensified cloudbursts, drought, and sea level rise. These challenges have been addressed as part of the Joint Governmental Digitalization Strategy 2016-2020 for better use and sharing of public data about the terrain, water, and climate to support climate adaptation, water management, and disaster risk reduction. This initiative included the development of a new web-based data portal (HIP portal) developed by the Danish Agency for Data Supply and Infrastructure (SDFI). GEUS delivered 5 terra-byte of hydrological model data to the portal with robust calibration methods and hybrid Machine Learning (ML) being key parts of the deliverables. The paper discusses the challenges and potentials of further developing the HIP Digital Twin with ‘plug-in Digital Twins’ for local river basins including feedback to the national level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0419.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: COVID-19; social determinants of health; older people vulnerability; health welfare regimes
Online: 27 September 2022 (10:16:38 CEST)
As of July 7, 2022, the total number of confirmed cases caused by COVID-19 has reached 544,324 million, and the total number of 6.333 million deaths (WHO). Older people were globally the most vulnerable during the pandemic. This paper examined the mortality and psychological crisis of older people during the pandemic in four cities, namely Wuhan, Milan, London, and Hong Kong. The selection of cities was based on different degrees of social connectedness of older people and chronologically to cover the whole period of the outbreak from January 2020 to August 2022. Older people in Milan and Wuhan tended to rely on the close family relationship during times of crisis. Meanwhile, older people in Hong Kong and London were more dependent on social services. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were employed to analyze the situations of older people under different government responses and the strengths and weaknesses of respective healthcare systems. Government reports and official statistics were used to illustrate the seriousness of each city's COVID-19 outbreak while stories reported by the press, NGOs, and journal articles were used to reflect the reactions of the older people. Interactions of social culture, health care provisions, and government responses to the pandemic were discussed from the perspective of health welfare regimes. On one hand, results showed that governments have not learned from the experiences of other countries. On the other hand, older people have not successfully coped with the life-threatening stress by breaking institutional boundaries and redefining cultural norms.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0403.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Nature-based solutions; climate change adaptation; climate change vulnerability; social-ecological systems
Online: 20 September 2022 (12:35:06 CEST)
Nature-based solutions (NbS) - working with and enhancing nature to address societal challenges - are increasingly being featured in climate change adaptation policy and plans. While there is growing evidence that NbS can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts in general, there is a lack of understanding on the mechanisms through which this can be achieved, particularly in the Global South. To address this, we analyse 85 nature-based interventions in rural areas across the Global South, and factors mediating their effectiveness, based on a systematic map of peer-reviewed studies encompassing a wide diversity of ecosystems, climate impacts, and intervention types. We develop and apply an analytical framework of people’s social-ecological vulnerability to climate change, in terms of six pathways of vulnerability reduction: social and ecological exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most cases (95%) report a reduction in vulnerability, primarily by lowering ecosystem sensitivity to climate impacts (73% of interventions), followed by reducing social sensitivity (52%), reducing ecological exposure (36%), increasing social adaptive capacity (31%), increasing ecological adaptive capacity (19%) and/or reducing social exposure (14%). An analysis of mediating factors shows that social dimensions are equally important as technical factors in NbS to achieving equitable and effective outcomes. Attention to the distinct social and ecological pathways through which vulnerability is reduced helps to harness the multiple benefits of working with nature in a warming world.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1303.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML); Cyber vulnerability management; Software Bill of Materials (SBOM); Vulnerability-Exploitability eXchange (VEX); Common Security Advisory Framework (CSAF); Software Supply Chain Cyber Risk
Online: 19 July 2023 (07:16:14 CEST)
One of the most burning topics in cybersecurity in 2023 will undoubtedly be the compliance with the Software Bill of Materials. Since the US president issued the Executive Order 14028 on Improving the Nation’s Cybersecurity, software developers have prepared and bills are transmitted to vendors, customers, and users, but they don’t know what to do with the reports they are getting. In addition, since software developers have identified the values of the Software Bill of Materials, they have been using the reports extensively. This article presents an estimate of 270 million requests per month, just from form one popular tool to one vulnerability index. This number is expected to double every year and a half. This simple estimate explains the urgency for automating the process. We propose solutions based on artificial intelligence and machine learning, and we base our tools on the existing FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable). This methodology is supported with a case study research and Grounded theory, for categorising data into axis, and for verifying the values of the tools with experts in the field. We showcase how to create, and share Vulnerability Exploitability eXchange data, and automate the Software Bill of Materials compliance process with AI models and a unified computational framework combining solutions for the following problems: (1) the data utilisation problem, (2) the automation and scaling problem, (3) the naming problem, (4) the alignment problem, (5) the pedigree, and provenance problem, and many other problems that are on the top of mind for many security engineers at present. The uptake of these findings will depend on collaborations with government and industry, and on the availability and the ease of use of automated tools.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0329.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Other Keywords: chatbot; cyber security; artificial intelligence; threats; vulnerability; data manipulation; social media; sentiment analysis
Online: 3 August 2023 (10:08:49 CEST)
In recent years, groups of cyber criminals/hackers have carried out cyber-attacks using various tactics with the goal of destabilizing web services in a specific context for which they are motivated. Predicting these attacks is a critical task that assists in determining what actions should be taken to mitigate the effects of such attacks and to prevent them in the future. Although there are programs to detect security concerns on the internet, there is currently no system that can anticipate or foretell whether the attacks will be successful. This research aims to develop sustain-able strategies to reduce threats, vulnerability, and data manipulation of chatbots, consequently improving cyber security. To achieve this goal, we develop a conversational chatbot, an application that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to communicate, and deploy it on social media sites (e.g., Twitter) for cyber security purposes. Chatbots have the capacity to consume large amounts of information and give an appropriate response in an efficient and timely manner, thus rendering them useful in predicting threats emanating from social media. The research utilizes sentiment analysis strategy by employing chatbots on Twitter (and analyzing Twitter data) for predicting future threats and cyber-attacks. The strategy is based on a daily collection of tweets from two types of users: those who use the platform to voice their opinions on important and relevant subjects, and those who use it to share information on cyber security attacks. The research pro-vides tools and strategies for developing chatbots that can be used for assessing cyber threats on social media through sentiment analysis leading to a global sustainable development of businesses. Future research may utilize and improvise on the tools and strategies suggested in our research to strengthen the knowledge domain of chatbots, cyber security, and social media.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0506.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Data Structures, Algorithms And Complexity Keywords: multi-objective; evolutionary algorithms; Pareto optimality; Wasserstein distance; network vulnerability; resilience; sensor placement.
Online: 31 December 2021 (11:01:51 CET)
This paper is focused on two topics very relevant in water distribution networks (WDNs): vulnerability assessment and the optimal placement of water quality sensors. The main novelty element of this paper is to represent the data of the problem, in this case all objects in a graph underlying a water distribution network, as discrete probability distributions. For vulnerability (and the related issue of re-silience) the metrics from network theory, widely studied and largely adopted in the water research community, reflect connectivity expressed as closeness centrality or, betweenness centrality based on the average values of shortest paths between all pairs of nodes. Also network efficiency and the related vulnerability measures are related to average of inverse distances. In this paper we propose a different approach based on the discrete probability distribution, for each node, of the node-to-node distances. For the optimal sensor placement, the elements to be represented as dis-crete probability distributions are sub-graphs given by the locations of water quality sensors. The objective functions, detection time and its variance as a proxy of risk, are accordingly represented as a discrete e probability distribution over contamination events. This problem is usually dealt with by EA algorithm. We’ll show that a probabilistic distance, specifically the Wasserstein (WST) distance, can naturally allow an effective formulation of genetic operators. Usually, each node is associated to a scalar real number, in the optimal sensor placement considered in the literature, average detection time, but in many applications, node labels are more naturally expressed as histograms or probability distributions: the water demand at each node is naturally seen as a histogram over the 24 hours cycle. The main aim of this paper is twofold: first to show how different problems in WDNs can take advantage of the representational flexibility inherent in WST spaces. Second how this flexibility translates into computational procedures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0069.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Marketing Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic; Smallholder rural farmers’ vulnerability; Humane buying; Nigeria; sustainable development goals
Online: 3 November 2021 (09:04:31 CET)
While several studies have examined the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on smallholder rural farmers and possible efforts to scale up their livelihood and food security, the role of consumers’ buying orientation in addressing farmers’ vulnerability in the post-pandemic era has not been explored. The paper, therefore, aims to propose and conceptualize humane buying orientation, and further explore its role in attenuating smallholder rural farmers’ vulnerability in the new normal. The qualitative design approach has been employed in two different studies. Collected data were analyzed using the SPSS 23.0 and following the interpretative phenomenological analysis. Findings validate humane buying as an altruistic orientation that will contribute to lessening the vulnerability of smallholder rural farmers in the post-pandemic era. It also shows that an enlarged-stakeholders’ (government, international agencies, corporate bodies, institutions, privileged individuals/consumers, religious organizations, etc.) effort that is rooted in morality and empathy, is required to successfully tackle the vulnerability of smallholder rural farmers, especially in developing countries such as Nigeria. The study is the first to propose, conceptualize and validate humane buying as a post-Covid-19 orientation that is capable of attenuating the vulnerability of smallholder rural farmers which has been worsened by the pandemic. The paper contributes to the understanding of emerging strategic actions required for the attainment of the United Nation’s sustainable development goals - ending poverty and hunger by 2030, and how consumers can play a key role.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0746.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Resilience; Social Progress; Enviromental Performance; Sustainable Development Goals; Governance; World Risks; Vulnerability; Susceptibility
Online: 30 December 2020 (08:58:20 CET)
Building Country Resilience is a long-term process particularly in the hyper connected world we are living today; and depends on good governance and appropriate equilibrium of respect for people, planet and profits as well as avoiding depleting natural resources that end up affecting the biosphere. Hence represent a most needed Learning ability that may be seeing to be related to the process of Sustainable Development. So, this paper seeks to find best practices and a Ranking of Countries that may help as guides to foster Country Resilience. For this purpose, it was developed a World Resilience Index - WRI based on a Statistical Analysis with updated data from 108 Countries divided into 3 Groups: American Countries – AMER (20 Countries), Advanced Economies - AVECO (22 Countries) mostly from Europe and OTHER (66 Countries); and using a set of Synthetic Variables like the Social Progress Index – SPI, the Environmental Performance Index – EPI, and the Sustainable Development Goals Index – SDGI, besides some related to Governance and the World Risk Index – WRI.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0226.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: adaptation; adaptive capacity; adaptation tracking; climate change; systematic review; vulnerability; developed nation; Australia
Online: 13 August 2018 (10:13:42 CEST)
We develop and apply a systematic literature review methodology to identify and characterize the ways in which the peer-reviewed literature depicts how climate change adaptation is occurring in Australia. We reviewed the peer-reviewed, English-language literature between January 2005 and January 2018 for examples of documented adaptation actions. Our results challenge previous assumptions that adaptation action is not happening in Australia and describes adaptation processes that are underway. For the most part, actions can be described as preliminary or groundwork, with a particular focus on documenting stakeholder perspectives on climate change and adaptation, and modelling or scenario planning in the coastal zone, agriculture and health sectors. Where concrete adaptations are reported, they are usually in the agricultural sector and are most common in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s food basket. The findings of the review advance our understanding of adaptation to climate change as a process and the need to consider different stages in the process when tracking adaptation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0510.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: channel migration; riverine landscape; riverine dwellers; livelihood vulnerability index (LVI); river confluence; RS-GIS
Online: 27 December 2022 (06:48:21 CET)
The power of the river does not always work to the benefit of living things; rather, it has the ability to destroy human society and has negative effects on the environment. River Teesta has a prodigious significance on the riverine dweller and its changing precarious behaviour has repercussions on the lives of millions. Utilizing satellite images and 41 years of temporal analysis, the mapping of channel extraction and channel shifting has been demonstrated. Delineating the exact channel boundary is a laborious operation, but MNDWI technique is really valuable in this situation to produce valuable results. Descriptive statistics are used to analyze the Teesta River's active flow line migration trend and channel migration behaviour. A particular river's oscillating character over time has both beneficial and detrimental power, destroying important resources for environmental sustainability and human society while also providing fertile mother earth as a source of wealth. As a result, another goal of the current study was to determine how vulnerable riverine residents were. A livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) based on the riverine inhabitants' exposure, sensitivity, and capacity for adaptation was created. According to the findings, the river's erratic behaviour is putting the people who live beside it in danger. Therefore, it is vitally necessary to implement a capable management strategy to stop bank failure at the Teesta-Dharala confluence in order to save the riverine residents.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0420.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: Refugee Self-Settlement; Vulnerability; Post-Partition Kolkata; Jabar-Dakhal colony; Global South; Urban Ecology
Online: 27 September 2022 (10:17:21 CEST)
Refugee subject position is an evolving topic of contention in the world today with increased migrant and refugee mobilities. Urban refugee spaces are often segregated in the form of colonies, ethnic villages, even ghettos, embodying institutionalised discourses of apathy and violence. These spaces only occupy the cracks and margins of the normative, formal city, as appropriations of inhospitable natural terrains and urban systems. The paper discusses how refugees compete for resources for survival as “bio-political” subjects and are often held summarily responsible for causing ecological stress in host environments. After the 1947 Partition of the Indian subcontinent, millions of Hindu Bengali refugees from East Pakistan flooded the Eastern Indian states of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. Kolkata particularly drew millions for better livelihood prospects. Facing government apathy and local violence, East-Bengali refugees appropriated the urban fringes of Kolkata and claimed their right to urban space through the political act of squatting or Jabar-Dakhal. The intent of this paper is to investigate and map the spatial distribution of East-Bengali refugee squatters and elaborate on how they transformed the terrain and distributed resources through self-management tactics. This spatial history case-study attempts to uncover locational data from archival government records, existing academic literature and fieldwork to visualise where the 145 pre-1950 and the 123 post-1950 Jabar-Dakhal colonies were located in the Kolkata Metropolitan Area. This case of successful refugee self-settlement is qualitatively read in relation to the major areas of ecological stress in Kolkata. One of the UN sustainable development goals is to make cities and human settlements ‘inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable’. This paper hopes to encourage further studies of urban refugee self-settlement and local integration as a viable but complex socio-political-environmental process.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0433.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate change; loss and damage; human well-being; marginal salt farmers; adaptation; vulnerability; Bangladesh
Online: 19 May 2021 (07:58:13 CEST)
In recent years in Bangladesh, there has been regular cyclonic event, flooding and erratic pre-monsoons precipitation that has hampered production greatly and forced Bangladesh to import salt from abroad to manage market deficiency. There is much uncertainty about the effects of climate change on the frequency and intensity of small-scale, sudden onset weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall and subsequent loss and damage (L&D). But, several studies indicate that an obvious strong relationship exists between irregular rainfall and associated L&D. Nowadays, severe changing rainfall patterns are observed in Bangladesh, which is rapid-onset in nature, but low exposed in terms of response. The current study explored a ‘double-exposed’ burden combined of both climatic (e.g., uneven rainfall) and non-climatic governance factors (e.g., imperfect trade policy, the absence of risk transfer mechanisms) which are hindering salt production and pushing the country from the aspiration of salt exporting to the net buyer. This chapter mainly assesses the impacts of L&D due to climatic events that are causing overwhelming effects on the well-being of marginal salt farmers at Kutubdia Upazila of Bangladesh. Data were mainly collected through Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA), Key informant interviews (KII), and Sample Surveys (SS). This study would provide insights for improved disaster management policy and an appropriate adaptive measure to address such extreme events as well as to initiate a further study for understanding the nexus of ‘nature and market’ in building resilience among the marginal salt farmers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0230.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: urban fabrics; seismic vulnerability; critic analysis; cost modelling; Urban preservation programming; building works programming
Online: 23 June 2019 (14:08:14 CEST)
Vulnerability is the big issue of the small inland urban centers exposed to the risk of depopulation. In the climate and in the context of an increasing seismic risk in the center-northern part of Italy, seismic vulnerability can become the determinant cause of the final abandonment of a small town. In some Italian regions, as well as Emilia Romagna, municipalities are implementing seismic vulnerability reduction policies based on the Emergency Limit Condition that has become a basic reference for ordinary land planning. This study proposes a valuation planning approach to the seismic vulnerability reduction carried out within the general planning framework concerning the Faentina Union, a group of five small towns located in the south-western part of the Province of Ravenna, Italy. The approach consists of three main stages: knowledge – the typological, constructive and technological description of the buildings specifically concerning their vulnerability degree; interpretation – the analyses aimed to outline a range of hypotheses about the damages in case of seism; planning – identifying the works intended to definitely reduce the vulnerability of the buildings. This stage includes a cost modelling tools aimed at outlining the trade-off between the extension and the intensity of the vulnerability reduction works, given the budget.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201607.0037.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Vision And Graphics Keywords: graph vulnerability; connectivity; network design and communication; domination number; average lower 2-domination number
Online: 15 July 2016 (09:50:33 CEST)
The problem of quantifying the vulnerability of graphs has received much attention nowadays, especially in the field of computer or communication networks. In a communication network, the vulnerability measures the resistance of the network to disruption of operation after the failure of certain stations or communication links. If we think of a graph as modeling a network, the average lower 2-domination number of a graph is a measure of the graph vulnerability and it is defined by , where the lower 2-domination number, denoted by , of the graph G relative to v is the minimum cardinality of 2-domination set in G that contains the vertex v. In this paper, the average lower 2-domination number of wheels and some related networks namely gear graph, friendship graph, helm graph and sun flower graph are calculated. Then, we offer an algorithm for computing the 2-domination number and the average lower 2-domination number of any graph G.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1189.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Art collections; displayer’s frequency; seismic vulnerability; seismic safety assessment; Museums content’s conservation; experimental dynamic monitoring
Online: 19 September 2023 (08:14:18 CEST)
Artworks play a fundamental role in the cultural and economic asset of communities, enforcing their identity and helping the social integration. Despite their importance, they are not always adequately protected against degradation, which can be induced by the aging, atmospheric and human-induced occurrence, and catastrophic events. Earthquakes certainly represent one of the main risks for art goods; however, traffic, construction works, and shipment can also represent a threat for art goods. Therefore, the assessment of the vulnerability of art collection to dynamic excitations plays a crucial role in their conservation, and it has been collecting an increasing attention by researchers, academics, and Museums’ managers. This work focuses on the vulnerability of the art collections exhibited at the Museum “Gaio Cilnio Mecenate” in Arezzo. Namely, it aims at assessing the effective dynamic loading experienced by the artworks, which is a function of the dynamic propagation plaid by the foundation soil, by the building and by the displayers used for exhibition. In this study the dynamic properties of some of the displayers used for exhibiting the art collections are investigated by performing an experimental survey. The analysis of the experimental data lead to assess the proper frequencies of the displayers, which have been compared to the ones of the building and the foundation soil of the Museum.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0288.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Architecture Keywords: Resilience, climate change, vulnerability, water management and urban planning, environmental technological design, nature-based solutions
Online: 16 December 2022 (01:59:42 CET)
The threat posed by climate change, the progressive erosion of natural resources, the polluting effects related to private motorization, energy waste, excessive consumption of agricultural and natural soils and their progressive waterproofing and reduction in vegetation cover, with the subsequent environmental degradation, have highlighted the need for a sustainable management of natural resources, in terms of an equitable and ethical development, to build inclusive communities able to adapt to the negative effects of emergency phenomena, through new capacities of economic, cultural and social resilience. This contribution presents the results of the activities conducted in the RivEr/Generation_LAB, a project organized by three CIVIS members (Sapienza University of Rome, Universitè libre de Bruxelles, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid) as a part of the CIVIS Project "RivEr/Generation_LAB. Linking resilience with inclusiveness in the urban built environment of Rome, Brussels, and Madrid", financed into the Hub4 Cities, Territories & Mobilities’ Call for proposals 2021. The project proposes a methodology of intervention in the Flaminio district, in particular on the 'Olympic Village' and its relationship with the Tiber River, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the New European Bauhaus, to establish new relationships between cities and the natural environment, favouring sustainable and inclusive public spaces.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0236.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: seismic vulnerability; fuzzy logic system; Interval Type-2 Fuzzy logic; retrofit prioritization; damage category classification
Online: 15 March 2020 (01:54:35 CET)
Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) is a procedure that estimates structural scores for buildings and prioritize their retrofit and upgrade requirements. Despite the speed and simplicity of RVS, many of the collected parameters are non-commensurable and include subjectivity due to visual observations. It might cause uncertainties in the evaluation, which emphasizes the use of a fuzzy-based method. This study aims to propose a novel RVS methodology based on the interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2FLS) to set the priority of vulnerable building to undergo detailed assessment while covering uncertainties and minimizing their effects during evaluation. The proposed method estimates the vulnerability of a building, in terms of Visual Damage Index, considering the number of stories, age of building, plan irregularity, vertical irregularity, building quality, and peak ground velocity, as inputs with a single output variable. Applicability of the proposed method has been investigated using a post-earthquake damage database of 28 reinforced concrete buildings from the Bingöl earthquake in Turkey.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0366.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: European Directive 2007/60/EC; sea level rise; coastal vulnerability; GIS; Portugal Coast; WMS; WebViewer
Online: 27 December 2019 (10:58:21 CET)
The sea level rise, a consequence of climate change, is one of the biggest challenges that countries and regions with coastal lowland areas will face in the medium term. This study proposes a methodology for assessing the vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) on the Atlantic coast of Portugal mainland. Some scenarios of extreme sea level for different return periods and extreme flooding events were estimated for 2050 and 2100, as proposed by the European Union Directive 2007/60/EC. A set of physical parameters are considered for the multi-attribute analysis technique implemented by the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in order to define a Physical Vulnerability Index fundamental to assess coastal vulnerability. For each SLR scenario, coastal vulnerability maps, with spatial resolution of 20 m, are produced at national scale to identify areas most at risk of SLR, constituting key documents for triggering adaptation plans for such vulnerable regions. For 2050 and 2100, it is estimated 903 km2 and 1146 km2 of vulnerable area, respectively, being the district of Lisbon the most vulnerable district in both scenarios. Results are available through a Web Map Service, for Portuguese public entities, and through a web map viewer for public and communities in general.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0184.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: flood disaster risk; vulnerability to flood disaster risk; arc-geographical information system (arcgis); geo-mapping
Online: 15 November 2019 (16:54:51 CET)
Flood is identified as one of the major disasters in the world; it destroys both human and properties across the world, where lives are lost, properties, public infrastructure, farmlands and agricultural produce with farm crops carted away as a result of flood disaster. Studies revealed that the flood in itself is not the danger, but the level of human vulnerability to flooding disaster risk, which enhances its destructive capabilities. However, based on the challenges poses by flood disaster risk, this research identifies Ala river in Akure as a potential cause of flood, considering its location and other human activities around the river. Therefore, the research used Ala-river a case study to identify and mapped out areas susceptible to flood disaster risk. The research made use of both literature review and conducted goe-data gathering with the application GIS-computer database to retrieve georeferencing relevant data from the fieldwork in the study area of Ala-river basin to mapped out locations vulnerable to achieve the research aim. The research adopted a Geo-mapping of the vulnerable area to Ala-River basin using arc-GIS tool in combination with other software such as IKONAS and OLI (Operation Land Imager) for the production of the study area imagery, ER-ITERIM was used for the collection of rainfall data and FAO was applied for digital soil mapping. These applications produced; the land use/land cover map, digital elevation map, buffer map using 30 meters setback, annual rainfall map, soil types map, vulnerability map and soil textural table for the study area. Analysis of the produced and generated maps shows 316 buildings vulnerability to flood disaster risk; the soil texture and types, and alternative use to which the soil types can be useful. The research recommends that demolition of the identified 316 buildings prone to flood disaster and compliance of building construction to 30 meters setback by developers. Others are the conversion of the future land setback for urban agricultural purposes and preservation of water retention areas for agricultural activities during the dry season among others. The study concludes that relevant government agencies in the State and in particular in Akure South Local Government should ensure prompt compliance and implementation of the recommendations to avoid potential flood disaster risks.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201609.0002.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Other Keywords: fractal dimension; carotid plaque characterization; three dimensional ultrasound; an evaluation of the vulnerability of the plaques
Online: 1 September 2016 (10:48:18 CEST)
Carotid atherosclerotic lesions are a major cause of cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Identification and quantification of carotid plaques are important for categorizing the vulnerability of plaques for rupture and assessing the impact of treatments. The irregularity of plaque surface is associated with previous plaque rupture and plays an important role in the risk of stroke. Thus, the aim of this study is to develop and validate novel vulnerability biomarkers from three-dimensional ultrasound (3DUS) images by analyzing the surface morphological characterization of carotid plaque using fractal geometry features. 3D box-counting and 3D blanket are the two types of 3D fractal dimension that were employed to describe the smoothness of plaques. This fractal dimension analysis tool was used to evaluate the effect of atorvastatin using 3DUS carotid images, which were acquired from 6 patients treated with atorvastatin with 80 mg daily and 5 patients with placebo. The Student's T Test results showed that those two fractal features were effective for detecting the statin-related changes in carotid atherosclerosis with p<0.0068 and p<0.015 respectively, suggesting that 3D fractal dimension measurements can be used effectively to analyze the surface characteristics of carotid plaques, especially for evaluating the impact of the treatment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1959.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: droughts; pluvials; excessive moisture; extreme climate events; compound drought and pluvials; compound extremes; climate change; risk; vulnerability; Canadian Prairies
Online: 29 August 2023 (08:38:57 CEST)
The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks in-cluding significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and planned reductions to vulnerability, particu-larly in light of a warming climate. A logical starting point involves awareness and information about the changing characteristics of such climate extremes. We focus on the compound occurrence of droughts and pluvials as the risks from this type of event are magnified compared to the hy-droclimatic extremes in isolation. Also, research on compound droughts and pluvials is limited. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent literature concerning the risks of com-pound droughts and pluvials, including examples of past occurrences, with a focus on the Cana-dian Prairies. Since literature from the Prairies is limited, global work is also reviewed. Rela-tionships between drought and pluvials are characterized using the SPEI Global Monitor for the Prairies, emphasizing the recent past, and through synthesis from the Prairie literature. That re-search mostly considers drought and pluvials as separate events, but is integrated here to charac-terize the relationships of these extremes. Examples of periods of compound droughts and exces-sive rainfall provide insights into the regional hydroclimatic variability. Furthermore, most lit-erature on future projections strongly suggests that this variability is likely to increase, mainly driven by anthropogenic climate change. These findings suggest means of decreasing vulnerabil-ity and associated damages. Although the study area is the Canadian Prairies, the work is rele-vant to other regions that are becoming more vulnerable to increasing risks of and vulnerabilities to such compound extremes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201706.0014.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: air pollution; soil hydraulic parameters; geochemical characterization of soils; aquifer vulnerability to contamination; health assessment; multi-criteria environmental analysis
Online: 2 June 2017 (06:25:00 CEST)
This paper deals with the environmental characterization of a large and densely populated area, with a poor reputation for contamination, considering the contribution of environmental features (air, soil, soil hydraulic and groundwater) and the potential effects on human health. The use of Geographic Information System (GIS) has made possible a georeferenced inventory and, by overlaying environmental information, an operational synthesis of comprehensive environmental conditions. The cumulative effects on environmental features were evaluated, taking into account superposition effects, by means of the spatial multicriteria decision analysis (S-MCDA). The application of the S-MCDA for converging the combination of heterogeneous factors, related to soil, land and water, deeply studied by heterogeneous groups of experts, constitutes the novelty of the paper. The results confirmed an overall higher potential of exposure to contaminants in the environment and higher mortality rates in the study area for some tumours, but hospital admissions for tumours were generally similar to the regional trend. Besides, mortality data may be strictly dependent on the poor socioeconomic conditions, quality of therapy and a lack of welfare in the area relative to the rest of Italy. Finally, as regards the possible relationship between presence of contaminants in the environment and health conditions of the population no definite conclusions can be drawn, although the present study encourages the use of the new proposed methods, that increase the possibilities for studying the combined effect of more environmental factors.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0513.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Security Systems Keywords: Increase in Security Breaches through Remote Working; Security Breaches; Remote Working issues; Remote Working Challenges; Vulnerability issues while Remote working
Online: 30 August 2022 (07:58:51 CEST)
Background: The rise of cloud computing has led to the increasing number of organizations that rely on it for various tasks and services, such as education, healthcare, and e-commerce. Unfortunately, many security threats can be caused by the sudden use of cloud platforms. Objective: This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of these threats and how they can be mitigated. Many companies are moving toward cloud computing to sustain their business growth and provide their employees with the best possible work environment. Results: Due to the rise of cyber security threats and the unprecedented number of breaches of data, small and medium-sized enterprises are also starting to take a huge leap. The outbreak of COVID-19 has affected the lives of people all around the world. Conclusion: Due to the seriousness of the situation, the WHO has declared the COVID-19 pandemic a public health emergency. To minimize the spread of the virus, the entire world has started adopting social distancing
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0152.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: vaccination intention; health-care providers; parents; lay people; promotive factors; protective factors; risk factors; vulnerability factors; vaccine decision-making; vaccination behavior
Online: 3 October 2023 (11:42:36 CEST)
The interrelatedness of social-structural aspects and psychological features with the vaccination intention provides the context to explore personal psychological fea-tures related to general decision-making and vaccine-related dispositions, and their contribution to the intention to vaccinate, within post-pandemic circumstances, after the imposed possibility of choosing a vaccine brand. The aim of our study was to map the function (promotive, protective, risk, vulnerability) of a set of psychological aspects in the intention to vaccinate, in people with different social roles regarding the vaccination. We surveyed three samples of people: healthcare providers (HPs), parents, and lay people, within the context of the after-pandemic. Negative vaccine attitudes lower intention to vaccinate in all regression models (all βs ranging from -.128 to -.983, all ps < .01). The main results indicate that, regardless of the sam-ple/social role, there is a shared attitudinal core for positive vaccination intention. This core consists of [high] trust in large corporations, government, and healthcare systems, as well as perceived consensus on vaccine safety/efficacy and experience of freedom (protective factors), and [low] vaccination conspiracy beliefs, trust in social media, and choice overload (risk and vulnerability factors, respectively). There are no common promotive factors of intention to vaccinate; for parents, perceived consensus on vaccines, and trust in corporations and the healthcare system play such roles, for HPs experience of freedom is obtained as a unique promotive factor. In contrast, for laypeople, no unique promotive factors were found. These results and guidelines for the promotion of positive vaccination behavior are further discussed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0017.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: beam-column joint; fibre-based section modeling; joint shear hinge; substandard beam-column joints; stiffness and strength deterioration; reinforced concrete; seismic vulnerability; risk
Online: 4 October 2022 (10:38:02 CEST)
The paper discusses how joint damage and deterioration affect the seismic response of existing reinforced concrete frames with sub-standard beam-column joints. The available simplified modeling techniques are critically reviewed to propose a robust, yet computationally efficient technique for simulating the nonlinear behavior of substandard beam-column joints. Improvements over the existing models include simulation of the cyclic deterioration of joint stiffness and strength as well as pinching in the hysteretic response, implemented considering a deteriorating hysteretic rule. A fibre-section forced-based inelastic beam-column element is developed; considering improved material models and fixed-end rotation due to bond failure, rebars-slip and inelastic extension, to simulate the deteriorating cyclic behavior of existing pre-cracked beam-column members. For the assessment of frames with substandard exterior beam-column joints, a nonlinear model for the exterior joint is developed and validated through a full-scale quasi-static cyclic test performed on a substandard T-joint connection. The proposed model allows considering structural performance in risk assessment while accounting for true inelastic mechanisms at the joints.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0202.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: HR satellite remote sensing; urban fabric vulnerability; UHI & heat waves; landsat & MODIS sensors; LST & urban heating; segmentation & objects classification; data mining; feature extraction & selection; stepwise regression & model calibration
Online: 26 October 2021 (13:11:23 CEST)
Densely urbanized areas, with a low percentage of green vegetation, are highly exposed to Heat Waves (HW) which nowadays are increasing in terms of frequency and intensity also in the middle-latitude regions, due to ongoing Climate Change (CC). Their negative effects may combine with those of the UHI (Urban Heat Island), a local phenomenon where air temperatures in the compact built up cores of towns increase more than those in the surrounding rural areas, with significant impact on the quality of urban environment, on citizens health and energy consumption and transport, as it has occurred in the summer of 2003 on France and Italian central-northern areas. In this context this work aims at designing and developing a methodology based on aero-spatial remote sensing (EO) at medium-high resolution and most recent GIS techniques, for the extensive characterization of the urban fabric response to these climatic impacts related to the temperature within the general framework of supporting local and national strategies and policies of adaptation to CC. Due to its extension and variety of built-up typologies, the municipality of Rome was selected as test area for the methodology development and validation. First of all, we started by operating through photointerpretation of cartography at detailed scale (CTR 1: 5000) on a reference area consisting of a transect of about 5x20 km, extending from the downtown to the suburbs and including all the built-up classes of interest. The reference built-up vulnerability classes found inside the transect were then exploited as training areas to classify the entire territory of Rome municipality. To this end, the satellite EO HR (High Resolution) multispectral data, provided by the Landsat sensors were used within a on purpose developed "supervised" classification procedure, based on data mining and “object-classification” techniques. The classification results were then exploited for implementing a calibration method, based on a typical UHI temperature distribution, derived from MODIS satellite sensor LST (Land Surface Temperature) data of the summer 2003, to obtain an analytical expression of the vulnerability model, previously introduced on a semi-empirical basis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0796.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Aegolius acadicus; Aegolius funereus; Asio otus; boreal owl; Bubo virginianus; climate change; ecosystem vulnerability model; flammulated owl; Glaucidium gnoma; habitat model forecasts; long-eared owl; Megascops kennicotti; Megascops trichopsis; northern pygmy-owl; northern saw-whet owl; great horned owl; Psiloscops flammeolus; western screech-owl; whiskered screech-owl
Online: 13 November 2023 (09:05:47 CET)
High-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in foothills and mountains of the southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the A1B moderate IPCC emission scenario of future climate. For five of the eight owl species, regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma) were projected to experience the steepest habitat-loss rates, or 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid southwestern North America. Long distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations for adapting to regional loss of habitat.