ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0143.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Determinants, Unemployment Rate, OLS, FMOLS, ECM
Online: 12 December 2018 (11:44:03 CET)
This study employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of unemployment rate in Nigeria. To achieve this annual data on unemployment rate, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and population growth from 1981 to 2016 was collected from Central Bank Statistical Bulletins and the World Bank website. The ADF test revealed that the macroeconomic variables are stationary at first difference while the Cointegration test revealed that the variables are cointegrated. Using unemployment rate as dependent variable, the FMOLS model revealed that exchange rate and population growth are positively significantly related to unemployment rate, interest rate and inflation rate were negatively related to unemployment rate but only interest rate was significant. The short run relationship revealed that the coefficient of the ecm(-1) is negative and statistically significant at 5% level indicating that the system corrects its previous period disequilibrium at the speed of 48.93% yearly. This study concludes that high exchange rate and population growth can lead to increase in unemployment rate in Nigeria while the government should develop the industrial sector and non-oil sector in order to generate employment and boost export in Nigeria.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0093.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Studies Keywords: higher education; sustainability; enrollment; graduation; unemployment
Online: 7 June 2022 (04:06:44 CEST)
The purpose of this study was to investigate trends in undergraduate enrollment, graduation, and employment in Ethiopia. It looked at data from the past 20 years of enrollment and graduation, as well as the 15 years of unemployment trends. For enrollment, we used the ARIMA(0,1,0) model, for graduation, the Holt-Winter model, and unemployment, the Simple model. Results showed that enrollment rates increased dramatically, but graduation rates remained constant. Besides, enrollment is expected to continue rising, while graduation rates are expected to fall. On the other hand, between 1999 and 2018, the overall unemployment trend declined. Yet, between 2009 and 2018 the unemployment trends stayed stable. According to the findings, for the next ten years, higher education enrollment and graduation will continue. Nevertheless, it is shown the diminishing demand for jobs in the labor market. As part of improving the existing realities of higher education, the study suggests reconsidering job-driven policy formulation, strengthening higher education-labor market alignment, controlling higher education expansion, and sustaining the development qualification systems.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0715.v1
Subject: Arts & Humanities, Anthropology & Ethnography Keywords: CPI; GDP; real estate; unemployment; VAR
Online: 29 December 2020 (08:26:12 CET)
This paper examines how housing prices are determined by macroeconomic factors in Saudi Arabia, namely, Gross Domestic Product Per capita (GDPP), Consumer Prices Index (CPI), and Unemployment Rate (UNEMP). Quarterly data for a period (2014q1 – 2019q4) were collected from publications of Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA). Vector Autoregression Analysis (VAR) is employed to capture the dynamic effect of the variables on housing prices. Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition and Impulse response function are also used. The results show that housing prices are insignificantly and positively related to GDPP, whereas it is negatively related to both (CPI & UNEMP). Only CPI has a significant relationship. The three variables, jointly, have Granger causality on HPI. Variance decompositions show that CPI is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of housing prices, followed by GDPP and the UNEMP respectively indicating that CPI is the most influential determinants for housing prices.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0759.v2
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: Okun's law; unemployment rate; Economic Growth; Liberia
Online: 23 June 2021 (13:11:14 CEST)
The purpose of this study is to examine the connection between economic growth and unemployment in Liberia between 2001 and 2019. The unit root test and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Co-integration test were used to examine the relationship between unemployment and GDP. The Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) bounds test is used to determine if the variables are linked in the long run. According to the results of the ARDL model, there is no long-run relationship between unemployment and economic growth. This study' results have particularly important policy implications for Liberian economic authorities. In both the long and medium term, the observational results showed no meaningful relationship between unemployment and economic growth. The Liberian government should direct its spending toward activities that directly and indirectly promote the creation of employment and decent jobs, a conducive environment and flexible labor market policies or legislation that are not impediments to job creation, and finally, the government should prioritize labor intensive industries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0355.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: social media; unemployment; crowdsourcing; natural language processing; mental health
Online: 17 August 2020 (08:29:47 CEST)
Social media, traditionally reserved for social exchanges on the net, has been increasingly used by researchers to gain insight into different facets of human life. Unemployment is an area that has gained attention by researchers in various fields. Medical practitioners especially in the area of mental health have traditionally monitored the effects of involuntary unemployment with great interest. In this work, we compare the feedback gathered from social media using crowdsourcing techniques to results obtained prior to the advent of Big Data. We find that the results are consistent in terms of 1) financial strain is the biggest stressor and concern, 2) onslaught of depression is typical and 3) possible interventions including reemployment and support from friends and family is crucial in minimizing the effects of involuntary unemployment. Lastly, we could not find enough evidence to study effects on physical health and somatization in this work.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0288.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: COVID-19; Indonesia; socioeconomic impacts; unemployment; poverty; coronavirus impacts
Online: 12 August 2020 (16:33:59 CEST)
This study estimates the negative impacts of the COVID-19 on poverty and unemployment in Indonesia. In doing so, this study develops and uses the SD model that reproduced similar patterns in terms of GDP, poverty, and unemployment. Estimated unemployment and estimated poverty under the COVID-19 are calculated for three different economic scenarios: the optimistic, the mid, and the pessimistic scenarios. This study concludes that Indonesia will experience rising unemployment and poverty in ranges (9-10) and (25-26) million people respectively by the end of this year – depending on projected economy growths. This study suggests that existing financial aids are sufficient to support rising unemployment and rising poverty level. However, if the Indonesia government cannot carefully slow the COVID-19 flow, higher financial supports are required to curb the negative impacts of the COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0248.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: long memory; persistence; structural change; pandemics; growth; and unemployment
Online: 12 July 2020 (08:26:52 CEST)
This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods of time that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across the centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have permanent effect in growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and it becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0183.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: ARDL; Inflation; Interest; Long-run; RGDPPC; Short-run; Unemployment
Online: 16 October 2019 (09:40:00 CEST)
Research background: Relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product per capita in Nigeria. However, there seems to be a short-run or long-run relationship among the macroeconomic variables.Purpose: This study investigated the impact of the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (RGDPPC) (proxy for economic growth) and proffered recommendations towards enhancing economic growth and to reduce the distasteful effects of inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in Nigeria in this present time economic challenges.Research methodology: This study applied a linear dynamic model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique to analyze the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship of the economic growth in Nigeria over the sample period between 1984 and 2017 using annual secondary data extracted from World Bank Development Indicators Report (last updated January 2019).Results: The empirical results showed that there was long-run relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (proxy for economic growth) in Nigeria. The result further revealed that only unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the long-run and inflation rate had a significant negative impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the short-run.Novelty: Therefore, the study concluded that unemployment rate and inflation rate proved to have significant impacts on economic growth in the long-run and short-run respectively. Formulation of policies to reduce unemployment through the adoption of labour concentrated technique of production, entrepreneurship development and policy to keep the inflation rate at single digit.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0350.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: Peer-to-peer economy; Income distribution; Unemployment compensation; Technological change
Online: 15 July 2021 (10:06:46 CEST)
We show that an exponential income distribution will emerge spontaneously in a peer-to-peer economic network that shares the publicly available technology. Based on this finding, we identify the exponential income distribution as the benchmark structure of the well-functioning market economy. However, a real market economy may deviate from the well-functioning market economy. We show that the deviation is partly reflected as the invalidity of exponential distribution in describing the super-low income class that involves unemployment. In this regard, we find, theoretically, that the lower-bound u of exponential income distribution has a linear relationship with (per capita) unemployment compensation. In this paper, we test this relationship for the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2015. Our empirical investigation confirms that the income structure of low and middle classes (about 90% of populations) in the United Kingdom exactly obeys exponential distribution, in which the lower-bound u is exactly in line with the evolution of unemployment compensation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0242.v1
Online: 19 June 2020 (12:13:41 CEST)
Corona Virus Infectious Disease (COVID-19) is newly emerging infectious disease. This disease is known to the globe in early 2019. Poor status of mental health is often caused by unemployment, ongoing socio-economic condition. Poor mental health may even accelerate the process of panic attack. It has been happening rapidly during COVID-19. It has a great effect on human health. This paper utilizes multiple related factors those have impact on causing panic attack. Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based framework is utilized in this paper that assembles multiple RNN layers along with other parameters into a single platform. This method is implemented by capturing interfering factors and predicts panic attack tendency of people during COVID-19. Early prediction of panic attacks may assist in saving life from unwanted circumstances.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0001.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: discrete-time hazard models; labour market transitions; duration of unemployment spells; immigration
Online: 1 August 2016 (09:47:20 CEST)
This paper studies the duration patterns of unemployment spells for immigrants and the determinants of unemployment’s completion into one of a number of studied labour market states in Finland. We estimate a duration model for unemployment with competing risks of its terminating into employment, labour market training or economic inactivity. Taking into account the wide period of observation and opportunities to analyse processes of labour market integration during various periods of economic development in Finland, in combination with the individualistic character of the labour careers of immigrants, this research is beneficial owing to the many various findings concerning labour market integration of immigrants. The approach undertaken in this research has a dualistic “descriptive-dynamic” character under which integration is understood as a never-ending process, which is conditioned by a time period of long-term existence and a context of solitary action. We find that transitions out of unemployment spells have a cyclical character; after every new “cycle” in unemployment, the probability of terminating unemployment decreases further. We also find that ascriptive factors make sense in the process of job-placement of immigrants from unemployment. Therefore, the gender, education and age of immigrants, as well as the effect of the period in which first unemployment occurred, potentially predict transitions out of unemployment and further labour market integration of immigrants.
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals; Human Capital; youth unemployment; Probit model; multinomial logit model; cohort study
Online: 2 December 2019 (04:42:18 CET)
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) raise quality employability, gender equity in access to employment and increase coverage in education, however, in Colombia, high unemployment rates and informality of young people are risks of fulfilling these objectives. This is verified by a study with cohorts on access to employment, labor mobility and entry to quality occupations, through the use of probabilistic models. This study found that young people are less likely to be employed than adults, education has increased in the new generations and allowing them to enter a higher quality occupation, job segmentation and lack of experience of young people are the main cause of unemployment and Women are less likely to be employed than men and to do so in quality jobs. To comply with the SDGs, you must increase coverage in education, make a differential gender policy and expand programs as learners and insert dual education.