Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

A simple method for the determination of caffeine in coffee grains by GC-FID is presented in the current work. The method was fully validated according to ISO 17025 requirements and European Commission regulation. The accuracy, as provided by recovery experiments was higher than 93%, and the precision, as provided by the (%)Relative standard deviation under reproducibility conditions, was lower than 5%. All independent parameters that lead in the increase of methods uncertainty were investigated. In the present work all special precautions were taken into account in order to avoid the use of an internal standard. The method was applied in real samples and possible health claims were investigated.

In this paper, we present findings from a qualitative interview study, which highlights the difficulties and challenges with quantifying carbon emissions, and discusses how to move productively through these challenges by drawing insights from studies of deep uncertainty. Our research study focuses on the digital sector and was governed by the research question: how do practitioners researching, working or immersed in the broad area of sustainable digitisation (researchers, industry, NGOs, and policy representatives) understand and engage with quantifying carbon? Our findings show how stakeholders struggled to measure carbon emissions across complex systems, the lack of standardisation to assist with this, and how these challenges led stakeholders to call for more data to address this uncertainty. We argue that calls for more data to address this uncertainty obscure the fact that there will always be uncertainty, and that we must learn to govern from within it.

A comprehensive review of uncertainties in power systems, covering modeling, impact, and mitigation, is essential to understand and manage the challenges faced by the electric grid. Uncertainties in power systems can arise from various sources and can have significant implications for grid reliability, stability, and economic efficiency. Australia, susceptible to extreme weather such as wildfires and heavy rainfall, faces vulnerabilities in its power network assets. The decentralized distribution of population centers poses economic challenges in supplying power to remote areas, a crucial consideration for emerging technologies emphasized in this paper. In addition, the evolution of modern power grids, facilitated by deploying the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), has also brought new challenges to the system due to the risk of cyber-attacks via communication link. However, the existing literature lacks a comprehensive review and analysis of uncertainties in modern power systems, encompassing uncertainties related to weather events, cyberattacks, and asset management, as well as the advantages and limitations of various mitigation approaches. To fill this void, this review covers a broad spectrum of uncertainties considering their impacts on the power system and explores conventional robust control, and modern probabilistic and data-driven approaches for modelling and correlating the uncertainty events to the state of the grid for optimal decision making. This article also investigates the development of robust and scenario-based operations, control technologies for microgrids (MGs) and energy storage systems (ESSs), and demand-side frequency control ancillary service (D-FCAS) and reserve provision for frequency regulation to ensure a design of uncertainty-tolerance power system. This review delves into the trade-offs linked with the implementation of mitigation strategies, such as reliability, computational speed, and economic efficiency. It also explores how these strategies may influence the planning and operation of future power grids.

Early spaceborne laser altimetry mission development starts in pre-phase A design, where diverse ideas are evaluated against mission science requirements. A key challenge is predicting realistic instrument performance through forward modeling at arbitrary spatial scale. Analytical evaluations compromise accuracy for speed, while radiative transfer modeling is not applicable at global scale due to computational expense. Instead of predicting arbitrary properties of a lidar measurement, we develop a baseline theory to predict only the distribution of uncertainty specifically for the terrain elevation retrieval based on terrain slope and fractional canopy cover features through a deep neural network gaussian mixture model, also known as a mixture density network (MDN). Training data was created from differencing geocorrected GEDI L2B elevation measurements with 32 independent reference lidar datasets in the contiguous U.S. from the National Ecological Observatory Network. We trained the MDN and selected hyperparameters based on regional distribution predictive capability. On average, the relative error of equivalent standard deviation of predicted regional distributions was 15.9%, with some anomalies in accuracy due to generalization and insufficient feature diversity and correlation. As an application, we predict the percent of elevation residuals of a GEDI-like lidar within a given mission threshold from 60°S to 78.25°N, which correlate to qualitative understanding of prediction accuracy and instrument performance.

With advances in information technology, big data, mobile communications, and robotics, digital technologies are increasingly being used in factories around the world. This digital transformation is named industry 4.0. Today, industrial companies are looking at how to adopt this era and implement these technologies 4.0 while improving their performance and generating more profits. The objective of this paper is to help companies to better choose the appropriate digital technologies according to their activities using a multi-experts-multi-criteria decision-making approach under hesitant fuzzy information. The proposed model is a generic model based on Multi-Agent Systems allowing to have an idea of the parameters necessary to apply the adopted approach. The adopted approach allows a better representation of uncertainty and subjectivity of experts’ judgments. It would be of great interest, especially, when exact quantitative data are not available. A real case company example is exposed (automotive company) towards putting into practice the proposed approach.

Raman-based Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) is a valuable tool for field testing and validating heat transfer models in Borehole Heat Exchanger (BHE) and Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) applications. However, temperature uncertainty is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, a new calibration method is proposed for single-ended DTS configurations, along with a method to remove fictitious temperature drifts due to ambient air variations. The methods are implemented for a Distributed Thermal Response Test case study in an 800 m deep coaxial BHE. The results show that the calibration method and temperature drift correction are robust and give adequate results, with a temperature uncertainty of ± 0.58, 0.74, 1.1 and 1.7 K found at depths of 200, 300, 500 and 800 m, respectively. The temperature uncertainty increases non-linearly with depth and is dominated by the uncertainty in the calibrated parameters for depths larger than 200 m. The paper also offers insights into thermal features observed during the DTRT, including a heat flux inversion along the borehole depth and the slow temperature homogenization under circulation. Distributed temperature measurements and their uncertainties are useful tools in determining the strengths and drawbacks of ground heat transfer models.

InSAR and associated analytic methods enable relative surface deformation measurements from low Earth orbit with a potential accuracy of centimeters to millimeters. However, assessing the actual accuracy can be quite difficult. The analytic methods are complicated enough that naive analytic error propagation is infeasible, and, in many settings, InSAR practitioners lack sufficient ground truth to assess results. Phase noise due to partial decorrelation from changes in the scattering properties of the ground is a prominent source of accuracy loss. In this paper we present a method to assess the loss of precision due to this component of phase noise. The proposed method consists of generating synthetic data stacks whose statistical properties match those of the actual input SAR data stacks, and then using the synthetic data for an ensemble calculation. The spread of the results of the ensemble calculation indicates the loss of precision. We show examples of the ensemble analysis at a mining operation in South Africa, and demonstrate the ability to estimate the precision of two InSAR deformation retrieval methods on a point-by-point and epoch-by-epoch basis.

Intending to analyze the role of nuclear power in an integrated energy system, we used the IESA-Opt-N cost minimization model focusing on four key themes: system-wide impacts of nuclear power, uncertain technological costs, flexible generation, and cross-border electricity trade. We demonstrate that the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) alone should not be used to demonstrate the economic feasibility of a power generation technology. For instance, under the default techno-economic assumptions, particularly the 5% discount rate and exogenous electricity trade potentials, it is cost-optimal for the Netherlands to invest in 9.6 GWe nuclear capacity by 2050. However, its LCOE is 34 €/MWh higher than offshore wind. Moreover, we found that nuclear power investments can reduce demand for variable renewable energy sources in the short term and higher energy independence (i.e., lower imports of natural gas, biomass, and electricity) in the long term. Furthermore, investing in nuclear power can reduce the mitigation costs of the Dutch energy system by 1.6% and 6.2% in 2040 and 2050, and 25% lower national CO₂ prices by 2050. However, this cost reduction is not significant given the odds of higher nuclear financing costs and longer construction times. In addition, this study has shown that lower financing costs (e.g., EU taxonomy support) considerably reduce the relevance of nuclear cost uncertainties on its investments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the economic feasibility of national nuclear power investments can vary considerably depending on the cross-border electricity trade assumptions. Additionally, we found that lowering the cost of small modular reactors has more impact on their economic feasibility than increasing their generation flexibility. In conclusion, under the specific assumptions of this study, nuclear power can play a complementary role (in parallel to the wind and solar power) in supporting the Dutch energy transition from the sole techno-economic point of view.

The theories of quantum mechanics and relativity dramatically altered our understanding of the universe ushering in the era of modern physics. Quantum theory deals with objects probabilistically at small scales, whereas relativity deals classically with motion in space and time. We show here that the mathematical structures of quantum theory and of relativity follow together from pure thought, defined and uniquely constrained by the same elementary ``combining and sequencing'' symmetries that underlie standard arithmetic and probability. The key is uncertainty, which inevitably accompanies observation of quantity and imposes the use of pairs of numbers. The symmetries then lead directly to the use of complex \sqrt{-1} arithmetic, the standard calculus of quantum mechanics, and the Lorentz transformations of relativistic spacetime. One dimension of time and three dimensions of space are thus derived as the profound and inevitable framework of physics.

Understanding tourist behaviour during and after major tourism crises is essential to help destinations recover. The COVID-19 pandemic, a period of uncertainty and risk, makes it relevant to assess factors that influence travel intentions. There has been little research on tourist behaviour during health crises and, in particular, on perceived health risk and uncertainty effects on travel intentions. This study was carried out during the first months of the pandemic in Brazil and aims to investigate the role of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions for 2020 and 2021. We applied an online survey to 1,150 Brazilian participants from March to May of 2020. Our findings indicate that perceived COVID-19 severity, perceived probability of contracting it, and expected pandemic duration are significant predictors of travel intentions for both years. This paper sheds new light on tourist behaviour in the context of global health crises.

Max Born's statistical interpretation made probabilities play a major role in quantum theory. Here we show that these quantum probabilities and the classical probabilities have very different origins. While the lat- ter always result from an assumed probability measure, the first include transition probabilities with a purely algebraic origin. Moreover, the gen- eral definition of transition probability introduced here comprises not only the well-known quantum mechanical transition probabilities between pure states or wave functions, but further novel cases. A transition probability that differs from 0 and 1 manifests the typical quantum indeterminacy in a similar way as Heisenberg's and others' un- certainty relations and, furthermore, rules out deterministic states in the same way as the Bell-Kochen-Specker theorem. However, the transition probability defined here achieves a lot more beyond that: it demonstrates that the algebraic structure of the Hilbert space quantum logic dictates the precise values of certain probabilities and it provides an unexpected access to these quantum probabilities that does not rely on states or wave functions.

Soil hydraulic properties are often derived indirectly, i.e. computed from easily available soil properties with pedotransfer functions (PTFs), when those are needed for catchment, regional or continental scale applications. When predicted soil hydraulic parameters are used for the modelling of the state and flux of water in soils, uncertainty of the computed values can provide more detailed information when drawing conclusions. The aim of this study was to update the previously published European PTFs (Tóth et al., 2015, euptf v1.4.0) by providing prediction uncertainty calculation built into the transfer functions. The new set of algorithms was derived for point predictions of soil water content at saturation (0 cm matric potential head), field capacity (both -100 and -330 cm matric potential head), wilting point (-15.000 cm matric potential head), plant available water, and saturated hydraulic conductivity, as well as the Mualem-van Genuchten model parameters of the moisture retention and hydraulic conductivity curve. The minimum set of input properties for the prediction is soil depth and sand, silt and clay content. The effect of including additional information like soil organic carbon content, bulk density, calcium carbonate content, pH and cation exchange capacity were extensively analysed. The PTFs were derived adopting the random forest method. The advantage of the new PTFs is that they i) provide information about prediction uncertainty, ii) are significantly more accurate than the euptfv1, iii) can be applied for more predictor variable combinations than the euptfv1, 32 instead of 5, and iv) are now also derived for the prediction of water content at -100 cm matric potential head and plant available water content.

The energy, momentum and the action associated with the time domain transition radiation fields are investigated. The results show that for a charged particle moving with speed $v$, the longitudinal momentum associated with the transition radiation is approximately equal to $E/c$ for values of $1-v/c$ smaller than about 10^-3 where $E$ is the total radiated energy and c is the speed of light in free space. The action of the transition radiation, defined as the product of the energy dissipated and the duration of the emission, increases as $1-v/c$ decreases and, for an electron, it becomes equal to $h/4\pi$ when $v=c-v_m$ where $v_m$ is the speed associated with the lowest energy state of a particle confined inside the universe and h is the Plank constant. Combining these results with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, an expression for the electronic charge based on other fundamental physical constants is derived. The best agreement between the experimentally observed electronic charge and the theoretical prediction is obtained when one assumes that the actual size of the universe is about 250 times larger than the visible universe.

Nuclear fusion reactors are composed by several complex components whose behaviour may be not certain a priori. This uncertainty may have a significant importance in the evolution of fault transients in the machine, causing unexpected damages to its components. For this reason a suitable method for the uncertainty propagation during those transient is required. The Monte Carlo method would be the reference option, but it is, in most of the cases, not applicable due to the large amount of required simulations to be repeated. In this context the Polynomial Chaos Expansion has been considered as a valuable alternative. It allows to create a surrogate model of the original one in terms of orthogonal polynomials. Then, the uncertainty quantification is performed repeatedly calling this much simpler and faster model. Using the fast current discharge in the Divertor Tokamak Test Toroidal Field (DTT TF) coils as a reference scenario, this method has been applied: the uncertainty on the parameters of the Fast Discharge Unit (FDU) varistor disks is propagated to the simulated electrical and electro-magnetic relevant effects. Eventually two worst case scenarios have been analyzed from the thermal-hydraulic point of view with the 4C code, simulating a fast current discharge as a consequence of a coil quench. Eventually it has been demonstrated that the uncertainty on the inputs (varistor parameters) strongly propagates obtaining a wide range of possible scenarios in case of accidental transients. This result underlines the necessity to take into account and propagate all possible uncertainties in the design of a fusion reactor, according to the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty approach.

Alectinib hydrochloride is an anticancer medication used for the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. Although it has been approved for medical use ten years ago, and three polymorphs of this substance were proposed based on X-ray diffraction patterns, their crystal structures remained unknown to date. The main problem was preparation of high quality single crystals due to very low solubility of the salt. Herein we report on molecular and crystal structure of form I of alectinib hydrochloride as obtained by powder X-ray diffraction data from laboratory source. The refinement revealed that the nitrogen atom of the morpholinyl ring is protonated. The chloride anion interacts with the H(N) atoms of the morpholine and benzo[b]carbazole rings to form infinite H-bonded chains.

This study employs traditional OLS (ordinary least squares) regression analysis to investigate the influence of various external factors on Bitcoin price fluctuations from January 2014 to March 2023 using a multidimensional approach. We use factors from the traditional financial market, such as economic policy uncertainty (EPU), oil prices, the NASDAQ index, and gold prices, to identify factors contributing to Bitcoin volatility. Considering the unique situation in the Bitcoin market, that is, 24-hour trading and the short duration of its existence, we incorporate the broadest possible data range to achieve alignment between Bitcoin data and other datasets. The findings of the statistical analysis indicate that EPU and the NASDAQ index promote positive fluctuations in Bitcoin volatility, whereas gold prices act as a dampener. However, we find no empirical support for the influence of energy prices on Bitcoin volatility. These results suggest that Bitcoin should not be underestimated; all stakeholders should treat the issue of Bitcoin volatility seriously, including governments, who should actively regulate the Bitcoin market, and investors, who should recognize the dangers of this volatility, making rational decisions based on individual circumstances and employing flexible trading strategies.

This paper presents a systematic approach to developing big data analytics for manufacturing process-relevant decision-making activities from the perspective of smart manufacturing. The proposed analytics consists of five integrated system components: 1) data preparation system, 2) data exploration system, 3) data visualization system, 4) data analysis system, and 5) knowledge extraction system. The functional requirements of the integrated systems are elucidated. In addition, JAVA- and spreadsheet-based systems are developed to realize the proposed integrated system components. Finally, the efficacy of the analytics is demonstrated using a case study where the goal is to determine the optimal material removal conditions of a dry electrical discharge machining operation. The analytics identified the variables (among voltage, current, pulse-off time, gas pressure, and rotational speed) that effectively maximize the material removal rate. It also identified the variables that do not contribute to the optimization process. The analytics also quantified the underlying uncertainty. In synopsis, the proposed approach results in transparent, big-data-inequality-free, and less resource-dependent data analytics, which is desirable for small and medium enterprises—the actual sites where machining is carried out.

Stray current is a relevant phenomenon in particular for DC electrified transportation systems, affecting the track and infrastructure within the right of way and other structures and installations nearby. It worsens with time and the level of protection depend on timely maintenance, besides correct design choices. The assessment of track insulation is the starting point for both stray current monitoring systems and at commissioning or upon major changes. Standardized methods (ref. EN 50122-2, or IEC 62128-2) are almost unchanged in the last 20 years, but suffer from accuracy issues and variability due to parameters and conditions not under operator’s control. A critical discussion and analysis of the sources of variability and practical constraints is proposed, followed by the evaluation of uncertainty, with the objective not only to assess the accuracy of provided results, but to foster research on innovative, more flexible and accurate, methods.

The adaptive identification method developed to evaluate the parameters of the Bouc-Wen hysteresis (BWH). The adaptive approach based on the use of adaptive observers. We synthesize adaptive identification algorithms using the second Lyapunov method. The boundedness of adaptive system processes shown in coordinate and parametric spaces. We prove exponential dissipativity of processes in an adaptive system. Estimating method proposed for signaling uncertainty in the system.

We survey the main results emerging in the rapidly developing field that considers the geometry of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. Our ideas of stability depend on variational principles – Maximum Entropy together with Least Action (and the isomorphic Least Exertion) – and this stability (invariance in time) indicates the centrality of the geometries of the systems. We explore a variety of examples of the application of thermodynamics in both macro- and micro-systems, and propose that irreversibility is an intrinsic and fundamental property of the physical realm (instead of being merely emergent). Using the concept of complex time, we examine the underlying mathematical unity of quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, and geometrical thermodynamics. We show how the Planck and Boltzmann constants provide the fundamental quantum units for the phenomenological characteristics of the two Noether-conserved quantities controlling overall thermodynamic behaviour: respectively, energy and entropy production. We discuss the far-reaching isomorphisms (between all of complex time, temperature and the system symmetry) that always exist for Maximum Entropy systems, even as they exhibit either irreversible (dissipative, yet still dynamically stable) or reversible (including stable and static geometries) behaviours.

In this study, the dependence between Bitcoin (BTC) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of USA and China is estimated by applying latest methodology of quantile cross-spectral dependence. The findings indicate a positive return interdependence between BTC and EPU is high in short-term, and this dependence decreases as investment horizons increase from weekly to yearly. The information on above interdependence is also extracted by applying wavelet coherence analysis and the estimation results suggest that correlation between BTC and EPU is positive during short-term investment horizon. Furthermore, more diversification benefits of BTC can be obtained during USA-EPU as compared to China-EPU.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

For more than eighty years the standard interpretation (SI) has dominated quantum physics. Perspectives that have tried to challenge this domination have been remarkably unsuccessful. As a result, quantum theory (QT) has remained remarkably stagnant. The article offers a critical examination of SI and provides an explanation for its continued domination. It also uses Bohmian mechanics—a theoretical perspective advanced by American physicist David Bohm—as a case study for why alternative interpretations have failed to displace SI. The article sees the main reason for the failure to achieve much progress beyond SI in the unresolved philosophical problem of subject-object relation that continues to plague our study of physics. The article sketches a path to a possible solution and outlines a new science practice that this solution will require.

A rapid, precise, accurate and low cost method for the determination of vitamin E (α-tocopherol) in cereal products and biscuits was developed. The uncertainty was calculated for the first time and the methods were performed in different cereal products and biscuits, characterized as “superfoods”. The limits of detection and quantification were calculated. Accuracy and precision were estimated using the certified reference material FAPAS T10112QC and the determined values were in good accordance with the certified values. The health claims according to the daily reference values for vitamin E were calculated and the results proved that the majority of the samples examined showed %daily value higher than 15%.

This work (in two parts) will review the recently developed predictive modeling methodology called “4th-BERRU-PM” and its applicability to energy systems as exemplified by an illustrative application to the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. The acronym 4th-BERRU-PM designates the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” methodology, which yields best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the first fourth-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted posterior distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters, thus incorporating, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2nd-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizing the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses the scopes of high-order sensitivity analysis (SA), uncertainty quantification (UQ), data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC). The application of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by means of the above-mentioned OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the neutron transport Boltzmann equation involving 21976 imprecisely known parameters, the solution of which is representative of “large-scale computations.” The model result (“response”) of interest is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. Part 1 of this work illustrates the impact of high-order sensitivities, in conjunction with parameter standard deviations of various magnitudes, on the determination of the expected value and variance of the computed response in terms of the first four moments of the distribution of the uncertain model parameters. Part 2 of this work will illustrate the capabilities of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for combining computational and experimental information, up to and including forth-order sensitivities and distributional moments, for producing best-estimate values for the predicted responses and model parameters while reducing their accompanying uncertainties.

The conformity assessment of products or a measured value with the given standards is carried out based on the global risk of producers and consumers calculation. A product may conform to specifications but be falsely rejected as non-conforming. This is about the producer's risk. If a product doesn't meet the requirements but is falsely accepted as conforming, that poses a risk to the consumer. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which yields only a single numerical value for the global risk of producers and consumers, is naturally extended, and utilized for assessing risk in measurement models with linear regression. The outcomes of the two-dimensional extension, along a moderate scale, are the parabolas with an opening upwards. Risk surfaces were obtained through three-dimensional extension over the area limited by the moderate scale and guard band axes. Four models with different ranges of tolerance intervals were used to test this innovative method of risk assessment in linear regression. The corresponding standard measurement uncertainties are determined by applying a simplified measurement model with the use of comprehensive data on the measurement performance and by determining measurement uncertainty derived from consideration of the functional relationship obtained by linear regression analysis. Models that utilize information from linear regression analysis to determine measurement uncertainty are biased towards risks at the edges of the moderate scale. Testing the model's performances with metrics related to the confusion matrix, such as the F1 score, further substantiated this assertion. The diagnostic odds ratio has been proven to be extremely effective in identifying the curve along the guard band axis, along which the global risks of producers and consumers are at their lowest.

The uncertainty in the secondary path of an Active Noise Control (ANC) headphone affects the waterbed effect and stability of the feedback system. This study focuses on the uncertainty of the secondary path when real users wear headphones, and proposes a new uncertainty constraint based on the measured results of the secondary path transfer function under different wearing conditions of dummy head and limited subjects. This constraint and a cascaded second-order infinite impulse response filter with fixed coefficients are used to formulate a control strategic function, which is optimized by the Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer (IGWO) algorithm to obtain the optimal controller with better noise reduction performance. The proposed method and simulation model are validated based on the experimental test results. The results demonstrate that the safety factor and waterbed suppressing factor contained in the proposed uncertainty constraint ensures more stable noise reduction and effective suppression of the waterbed effect for new subjects without a priori data.

This study rigorously investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the Tunisian stock market volatility. The investigation spans from January 2020 to December 2022, employing a GJR-GARCH model, bias-corrected wavelet analysis, and an ARDL approach. Specific variables related to health measures and government interventions are incorporated. The findings highlight that confirmed and death cases contribute significantly to the escalation in TUNINDEX volatility. Interestingly, certain indices related to government interventions exhibit no substantial impact on volatility, indicating a weak resilience of the Tunisian stock market amidst the challenges posed by COVID-19. However, the application of the bias-corrected wavelet analysis yields more nuanced outcomes in terms of correlations of volatility to the same metrics. Notably, the study recognizes the potential influence of uncertainties linked to the duration of lockdowns on financial market volatility. The positive and long-term impact on volatility of the US Equity Market uncertainty and VIX is evident through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), whereas economic policy uncertainty shows no significant impact. This indicates a potential vulnerability of the Tunisian stock market to future shocks, emphasizing the need for government efforts to instill investor confidence. This comprehensive exploration contributes to our understanding of the dynamics between the pandemic’ metrics, government interventions, and financial market stability. Our findings provide valuable insights for implementing risk management strategies amid the COVID‐19 crisis.

We show that one of the two important uncertainty principles derived by Maccone and Pati \textit{[Phys. Rev. Lett., 2014]} can be derived for arbitrary maps defined on subsets of $\mathcal{L}^p$ spaces for $1< p<\infty$. Our main tool is the Clarkson inequalities. We also derive a nonlinear uncertainty principle for weak parallelogram spaces and Type-p Banach spaces.

The introduction of ChatGPT in academia has raised significant concerns, particularly regarding issues like plagiarism and the ethical use of generative text for academic purposes. Existing literature has predominantly focused on ChatGPT adoption, leaving a notable gap in addressing the strategies users employ to mitigate these emerging challenges. To bridge this gap, this research utilizes the Uncertainty Reduction Theory (URT) to formulate user strategies for reducing uncertainty. These strategies include both interactive and passive approaches. Concurrently, the study identifies key sources of uncertainty, which include concerns related to transparency, information accuracy, and privacy. Additionally, it introduces the concepts of seeking clarification and consulting peer feedback as mediating roles to facilitate reduced uncertainty. We tested these hypotheses with a sample of Indonesian users (N = 566) using structural equation modeling via Smart-PLS 4.0 software. The results confirm that interactive Uncertainty Reduction Strategies (URS) are more effective in reducing uncertainty when using ChatGPT compared to passive URS. Transparency concerns, information accuracy, and privacy concerns are identified as factors that increase the level of uncertainty. In contrast, consulting peer feedback is the most effective strategy for reducing uncertainty compared to seeking clarification at the individual-system level. Insights from the mediating effects confirm that consulting peer feedback significantly mediates uncertainty sources to reduce uncertainty. The study discusses various strategies for the ethical use of ChatGPT by users in the educational context and contributes significantly to theoretical development.

We study the work fluctuations in ergotropic heat engines, namely two-strokes quantum Otto engines where the work stroke is designed to extract the ergotropy (the maximum amount of work by a cyclic unitary evolution) from a couple of quantum systems at canonical equilibrium at two different temperatures, whereas the heat stroke thermalizes back the systems to their respective reservoirs. We provide an exaustive study for the case of two qutrits whose energy levels are equally spaced at two different frequencies by deriving the complete work statistics. By varying the values of temperatures and frequencies, only three kinds of optimal unitary strokes are found: the swap operator U1, an idle swap U2 (where one of the qutrits is regarded as an effective qubit), and a non trivial permutation of energy eigenstates U3, which indeed corresponds to the composition of the two previous unitaries, namely U3 = U2U1. While U1 and U2 are Hermitian (and hence involutions), U3 is not. This point has an impact on the thermodynamic uncertainty relations (TURs) which bound the signal-to-noise ratio of the extracted work in terms of the entropy production. In fact, we show that all TURs derived from a strong detailed fluctuation theorem are violated by the transformation U3.

This article provides an overview of multi-fidelity modeling trends. Fidelity in modeling refers to the level of detail and accuracy provided by a predictive model or simulation. Generally, models with higher fidelity deliver more precise results but demand greater computational resources. Multi-fidelity models integrate high-fidelity and low-fidelity models to obtain fast yet accurate predictions. Their growing popularity is due to their ability to approximate high-fidelity models with high accuracy and low computational cost. This work classifies publications in multi-fidelity modeling based on various factors, including application, surrogate selection, fidelity difference, fidelity combination method, field of application, and year of publication. The study also examines the techniques used to combine fidelities, focusing on multi-fidelity surrogate models. To accurately evaluate the advantages of utilizing multi-fidelity models, it is necessary to report the achieved time savings. This paper includes guidelines for authors to present their multi-fidelity-related savings in a standard, succinct, yet thorough way to guide future users. According to a select group of publications that provided sufficient information, multi-fidelity models achieved savings of up to 90% while maintaining the desired level of accuracy. However, the savings achieved through multi-fidelity models depend highly on the problem.

The battery energy storage systems (BESS) are most promising solution for increasing efficiency and flexibility of distribution networks (DNs) with significant penetration level of photovoltaic (PV) systems. There are various issues related to the optimal operation of DNs with integrated PV sys-tems and BESS that need to be addressed to maximize DN performance. This paper deals with the day-ahead optimal active-reactive power dispatching in unbalanced DNs with integrated sin-gle-phase PV generation and BESSs. The objectives are the minimization of cost for electricity, en-ergy losses in the DN and voltage unbalance at three-phase load buses by optimal managing of active and reactive power flows. To solve this highly constrained nonlinear optimization problem, a hybrid particle swarm optimization with sigmoid-based acceleration coefficients (PSOS) and cha-otic gravitational search algorithm (CGSA), called PSOS-CGSA algorithm, is proposed. A scenario based approach encompassing the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method with the simultaneous backward reduction algorithm is used for the probabilistic assessment of the uncertainty of PV generation and power of loads. The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is evaluated through the series test cases in a modified IEEE 13-bus feeder.

We consider a class of density-driven flow problems. We are particularly interested in the problem of the salinization of coastal aquifers. We consider the Henry saltwater intrusion problem with uncertain porosity, permeability, and recharge parameters as a test case. The reason for the presence of uncertainties is the lack of knowledge, inaccurate measurements, and inability to measure parameters at each spatial or time location. This problem is nonlinear and time-dependent. The solution is the salt mass fraction, which is uncertain and changes in time. Uncertainties in porosity, permeability, recharge, and mass fraction are modeled using random fields. This work investigates the applicability of the well-known multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for such problems. The MLMC method can reduce the total computational and storage costs. Moreover, the MLMC method runs multiple scenarios on different spatial and time meshes and then estimates the mean value of the mass fraction. The parallelization is performed in both the physical space and stochastic space. To solve every deterministic scenario, we run the parallel multigrid solver ug4 in a black-box fashion. We use the solution obtained from the quasi-Monte Carlo method as a reference solution.

The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.

Media coverage of Lyme disease (LD) has led to an increase in consultations for presumed LD in Europe. However, LD is confirmed in only 10-20% of patients, with a significant number remaining in a diagnostic dead-end. The objective of our study was to understand the genesis of the LD hypothesis in care pathways. In 2019, 30 patients from a prospective cohort consulting in the infectious diseases department at University Hospital in Marseille for presumed LD were recruited for semi-structured interviews. The inclusion criteria were: suffering from subjective symptoms for 6 months, no clinical or paraclinical argument suggesting current LD. The patients’ medical trajectories were collected using a biographical approach. A majority of participants were convinced they had LD despite the lack of medical evidence and the scepticism of their referring GP. The diagnosis of Lyme disease was primarily triggered by identification with clinical stories circulating in the media. Most of participants had conducted the diagnostic investigation themselves. Diagnostic wandering in the diagnostic process suggests a failure of modern medicine to propose solutions for medically unexplained symptoms. Clinicians should systematically explore patients’ etiologic representations in a patient-centred care approach.

Most quantum gravity theories endow space-time with a discreet nature by space quantization on the order of Planck length (lp ). This discreetness could be demonstrated by confirmation of Lorentz invariance violations (LIV) manifested at length scales proportional to lp. In this paper, space-time line elements compatible with the uncertainty principle are calculated for a homogeneous, isotropic expanding Universe represented by the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker solution to General Relativity (FLRW or FRW metric). To achieve this, the covariant geometric uncertainty principle (GeUP) is applied as a constraint over geodesics in FRW geometries. A generic expression for the quadratic proper space-time line element is derived, proportional to Planck length-squared and dependent on two contributions. The first is associated to the energy-time uncertainty, and the second depends on the Hubble function. The results are in agreement with space-time quantization on the expected length orders, according to quantum gravity theories and experimental constraints on LIV.

Knowledge-based approaches are useful alternatives to predict the Failure Probability (FP) coping with the insufficient data, process integrity, and complexity issue in manufacturing systems. This study proposes a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach as proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP based maintenance planning with subjective information from domain experts. However, the classical-FTA still suffers from uncertainty and static structure limitations which poses a substantial dilemma in predicting FP. To deal with the uncertainty issues, a Fuzzy-FTA (FFTA) model was developed by statistical analysing the effective attributes such as experts' trait impacts, scales variation and, assorted membership and defuzzification functions. Besides, a Bayesian Network (BN) theory was conducted to overcome the static limitation of classical-FTA. The results of FFTA model revealed that the changes in decision attributes were not statistically significant on FP variation while BN model considering conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between events had more impact on predicting FP. After all, the integrated FFTA-BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to estimated FP and the total expected cost. As a practical example, the proposed model was implemented in a semi-automatic filling system in an automotive production line. The outcomes could be useful for upgrading the availability and safety of complex equipment in manufacturing systems.

What is the function of cognition? On one influential account, cognition evolved to co-ordinate behaviour with environmental change or complexity (Godfrey-Smith 1996). Liberal interpretations of this view ascribe cognition to an extraordinarily broad set of biological systems – even bacteria, which modulate their activity in response to salient external cues, would seem to qualify as cognitive agents. However, equating cognition with adaptive flexibility per se glosses over important distinctions in the way biological organisms deal with environmental complexity. Drawing on contemporary advances in theoretical biology and computational neuroscience, we cash these distinctions out in terms of different kinds of generative models, and the representational and uncertainty-resolving capacities they afford. This analysis leads us to propose a formal criterion for delineating cognition from other, more pervasive forms of adaptive plasticity. On this view, biological cognition is rooted in a particular kind of functional organisation; namely, that which enables the agent to detach from the present and engage in counterfactual (active) inference.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

We present a generalized state-space model formulation particularly motivated by an online scheduling perspective. Through these proposed generalizations, we enable a natural way to handle routinely encountered disturbances and a rich set of corresponding counter-decisions. Thereby, greatly simplifying and extending the possible application of mathematical programming based online scheduling solutions to diverse application settings.

Green economy has emerged as a significant pillar of sustainable development in the current global context, and the unpredictability of economic policy has progressively garnered the interest of businesses and government officials as one of the obstacles they must confront. This paper examines how uncertainty in the green economy impacts the green economy's efficacy. The research concentrates on how changes in a particular region can result in geospatial diffusion (spatial spillover), which is a form of spatial spillover wherein the uncertainty of the green economy can impact its efficacy. This paper examines the policy formulation and current state of the green economy across various regions, as well as the diffusion of economic policy uncertainty across geographical areas and the subsequent impact on the green economy's status quo. There is a negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and green economy efficacy, according to research. There is a spatial spillover effect between economic policy uncertainty and the efficacy of the green economy. Regional variations exist in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the efficacy of the green economy. The findings indicate that the implementation of AI has a more substantial beneficial effect on carbon emissions. An increase in carbon dioxide emissions poses a growing challenge for the industrial sector in its pursuit of carbon neutrality.

This article addresses the challenge of simulating rainstorm waterlogging in urban-scale areas where reliable drainage pipe network data is often lacking. Despite existing methods attempting to tackle this issue, there remains a gap in effectiveness. We present a novel approach, the Modified Equivalent Infiltration (MEI) method, building upon the foundation of the Equivalent Infiltration (EI) method. The study focuses on the outer ring area of Shanghai, utilizing data from the "In-Fa" typhoon period for simulation and comparison. Our findings reveal that the MEI method, requiring the same data inputs as the EI method, surpasses its predecessor in both principle and simulation results. Additionally, the MEI method demonstrates robustness in handling rainstorm waterlogging scenarios.

The issue of equipment layout in multi-floor satellites consists of two primary parts: allocating the equipment to the satellite's layers and placing the equipment in each layer individually. In reviewing the past literature in this field, firstly, the issue of assigning equipment to layers is observed in a few articles and next in the layout part, the non-overlapping constraint has always been a challenge, particularly for components that do not have a circular cross-section. In addition to presenting a heuristic method for allocating equipment to different layers of the satellite, this article presents a robust flexible programming model (RFPM) for the placement of equipment at different layers, taking into account the inherent flexibility of the equipment in placement and the subject of uncertainty. This model is based on the existing uncertainty between the distances of cuboid equipment which has not been addressed in any of the previous research, and by comparing its outputs with cases from past studies, it demonstrates a significantly higher efficiency in placing the equipment and meeting the limit of non-overlapping constraints between the equipment. Finally, it would be possible to reduce the design time in the conceptual and preparatory stages, as well as the satellite's overall size, while still satisfying other constraints like stability and thermal limitations, moments of inertia and centre of gravity.

In the paper we suggest an implementation of the non-commutative logic and apply its operators for decision-making in the group of autonomous agents. The suggested operators extend the uninorm and absorbing norm aggregators and use an additional asymmetry parameter that defines the “level of non-commutativity”. The value of this parameter is specified using the perception bias of humans measured in the experiments. The suggested operators and decision-making method are illustrated by simulated behavior of mobile robots in the group.

Public trust in science was tested and relied on during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which has shaped global events since the WHO declaration in March 11, 2020. Public trust has been impacted through the government recommendations and mandates informed by public health guidance, including non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions. The free-flow of ideas and in-formation so essential to the functioning of science has faced unprecedented challenge from widespread censorship in both the media and in scientific journals. This has created a poisoned environment for the building of trust between science and society. Scientific norms and ac-countability must be restored in order to rebuild the vital relationship between scientists and the public they serve.

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are numerically studied. We first give a review for the formulation of the generalized uncertainty relations in the stochastic variational method (SVM), following the work by two of the present authors [Phys.\ Lett.\ A\textbf{382}, 1472 (2018)]. In this approach, the origin of the finite minimum value of uncertainty is attributed to the non-differentiable (virtual) trajectory of a quantum particle and then both of the Kennard and Robertson-Schr\"{o}dinger inequalities in quantum mechanics are reproduced. The same non-differentiable trajectory is applied to the motion of fluid elements in the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation or the Navier-Stokes-Korteweg equation. By introducing the standard deviations of position and momentum for fluid elements, the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are derived. These are applicable even to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and then the field-theoretical uncertainty relation is reproduced. We further investigate numerically the derived relations and find that the behaviors of the uncertainty relations for liquid and gas are qualitatively different. This suggests that the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are used as a criterion to classify liquid and gas in fluid.

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.

In the field of pavement engineering, the determination of the mechanical characteristics is one of the essential process for reliable material design and highway sustainability. Early determination of mechanical characteristics of pavement is highly essential for road and highway construction and maintenance. Tensile strength (TS), compressive strength (CS) and flexural strength (FS) of roller compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) are very crucial characteristics as they are necessitated for many data from mixture proportions as input variables. In this research, the classification-based regression models named Random Forest (RF), M5rule model tree (M5rule), M5prime model tree (M5p) and Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) are developed for simulation of the mechanical characteristics of RCCP. A comprehensive and reliable dataset comprising 621, 326 and 290 data records for CS, TS and FS experimental cases extracted from several open sources over the literature. The mechanical properties are developed based on influential inputs combination that processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The applied PCA method as feature selection is specified that volumetric/weighted content forms of experimental variables (e.g., coarse aggregate, fine aggregate, supplementary cementitious materials, water and binder) and specimens’ age are the most effective inputs to generate the better performances. Several statistical metrics are measured to evaluate proposed classification-based regression models. RF model revealed an optimistic classification capacity of the CS, TS and FS prediction of the RCCP in comparison with the CHAID, M5rule, and M5p models. The research is extended for the results verification using Monte-carlo model for the uncertainty and sensitivity of variables importance analysis. Overall, the proposed methodology indicated a reliable soft computing model that can be implemented for the material engineering construction and design.

This work continues the review and illustrative application to energy systems of the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” (4th-BERRU-PM) methodology. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, in-cluding fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses with respect to model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology yields the fourth-order MaxEnt posterior distribution of experimentally measured and computed model responses and parameters, in the combined phase-space of model responses and parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses fourth-order sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ), which were reviewed in the accompanying work (Part 1), as well as fourth-order data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC) capabilities, which will be reviewed and illustrated in this work (Part 2). The applicability of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by using the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the linear neutron transport Boltzmann equation, involving 21976 im-precisely known parameters. This benchmark is representative of “large-scale computations” such as those involved in the modeling of energy systems. The result (“response”) of interest for the PERP benchmark is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. The impact of the high-order sensitivities of the response with respect to the PERP model parameters is quantified for “high-precision” parameters (2% standard deviations) and “medium-precision” parameters (5% standard deviations). Analyzing the best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the 1st- through 4th-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) produced by the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for the PERP benchmark indicates that, even for systems mod-eled by linear equations (e.g., the PERP benchmark), retaining only first-order sensitivities is insufficient for reliable predictive modeling (including SA, UQ, DA, MC). At least second-order sensitivities should be retained in order to obtain reliable predictions.

In the century and a half since Maxwell first conjured his “finite being” which Lord Kelvin subsequently dubbed a “daemon”, researchers have explored the connections between non-equilibrium thermodynamics, entropy, and information theory. In recent years various Thermodynamic Uncertainty Relations (TURs) have been derived to inform upon the relationship between the entropy production and the precision possible in thermodynamic machines and processes. In this paper the recently derived TURs are applied to the hypothetical thermodynamic economy as described by Parker [1]. The TURs define the lower bound on the total entropy production of the economy. Changes in this entropy production rate has consequences on the stability of the economic system and plays a central role in the business cycle. This new perspective has important implications for policy makers, researchers, and other economic actors.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology is increasingly prevalent in the quantification of environmental status in the building sector, following new legislative frameworks. Countries need to quantify and assess their environmental impacts as a previous base for regulation and decision making. In this context, standardised national data sets are being developed, based on consensus with manufacturers: sectoral Environmental Product Declarations. This study focuses on assessing these EPDs with the aim of providing relevant information for global decision-making, focusing on consistency and pointing out shortcomings. An assessment has been carried out both at national level, considering all sectoral EPDs and declared products, and at international level, with three common building materials (brick, steel and concrete). The results highlight the lack of traceability in the development and assessment of uncertainty, resulting in substantial discrepancies in reported impacts, especially in the later stages of the life cycle (up to 90% difference). Meanwhile, impacts such as Global Warming Potential or total renewable and non-renewable primary energy use show homogeneous values in the cradle-to-gate stages with differences generally less than 10%. The analysis of sectoral EPDs should be a design guide with environmental sustainability criteria, as the last section of this study attempts to focus on.

Earliest critical context of the pandemic, preceding the first real epidemiological wave of contagion in Bulgaria, was examined in a socio-affective perspective. A retrospective and agnostic analytical approach was adopted. Our goal was to identify traits and trends that explain public health support (PHS) of Bulgarians during the first two months of the declared state of emergency. We investigated a set of variables with a unified method within an international scientific network, named International Collaboration on Social &amp; Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (ICSMP) in April and May 2020. Conspiracy Theories beliefs were a significant predictor of lower PHS. Psychological Well-being was significantly associated with Physical Contact and Anti-Corona Policy Support. Physical Contact was significantly predicted by less Conspiracy Theories beliefs, higher Collective Narcissism, Open-mindedness, higher Trait Self-Control, Moral Identity, Risk Perception, and Psychological Well-Being. Physical Hygiene compliance was predicted by less Conspiracy Theories beliefs, Collective Narcissism, Morality-as-Cooperation, Moral Identity, and Psychological Well-Being. Results revealed two polar trends of support and non-support of public health policies. The contribution of this study is in providing evidence for affective polarization and phenomenology of (non)precarity during the outbreak of the pandemic.

Quantum gravity theories rely on a minimal measurable length for their formulations, which clashes with the classical formulation of the uncertainty principle and with Lorentz invariance from general relativity. These incompatibilities led to the development of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) from string theories and its various modifications. GUP and covariant formulations of the uncertainty principle are discussed, together with implications for space-time quantization.

We study the connection between the phase and the amplitude of the wave function and the conditions under which this relationship exists. For this we use model of particle in a box. We have shown that the amplitude can be calculated from the phase and vice versa if the log Analytical uncertainty relations are satisfied.

Methods to handle uncertainty in economic evaluation have gained much attention in the literature and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) is the most widely used method to summarize and present uncertainty associated with program costs and effects in cost-effectiveness analysis. Some researchers have emphasized the limitations of the CEAC for informing decision and policy makers as the CEAC is insensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects in the North-East and South-West quadrants of the cost-effective plane (CEP). Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the CEAC does not incorporate risk-aversion in valuing uncertain costs and effects. In the present article we show that the cost-effectiveness affordability curve (CEAFC) captures both dimensions of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects on the CEP and is therefore sensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution on the CEP. Furthermore, the CEAFC also informs about the budget impact of a new intervention as it estimates the joint probability an intervention is both affordable and cost-effective. Moreover, we show that the cost-effectiveness risk-aversion curve (CERAC) allows to incorporate risk-aversion into the analysis and can therefore be used to inform decision-makers who are risk-averse. We use data from a published cost-effectiveness model of palbociclib in addition to letrozole versus letrozole alone for the treatment of oestrogen-receptor positive, HER-2 negative, advanced breast cancer to demonstrate the differences between CEAC, CEAFC and CERAC and show how these can jointly be used to inform decision and policy makers.

Industrial dynamical systems often exhibit multi-scale response due to material heterogeneities, operation conditions and complex environmental loadings. In such problems, it is the case that the smallest length-scale of the systems dynamics controls the numerical resolution required to effectively resolve the embedded physics. In practice however, high numerical resolutions is only required in a confined region of the system where fast dynamics or localized material variability are exhibited, whereas a coarser discretization can be sufficient in the rest majority of the system. To this end, a unified computational scheme with uniform spatio-temporal resolutions for uncertainty quantification can be very computationally demanding. Partitioning the complex dynamical system into smaller easier-to-solve problems based of the localized dynamics and material variability can reduce the overall computational cost. However, identifying the region of interest for high-resolution and intensive uncertainty quantification can be a problem dependent. The region of interest can be specified based on the localization features of the solution, user interest, and correlation length of the random material properties. For problems where a region of interest is not evident, Bayesian inference can provide a feasible solution. In this work, we employ a Bayesian framework to update our prior knowledge on the localized region of interest using measurements and system response. To address the computational cost of the Bayesian inference, we construct a Gaussian process surrogate for the forward model. Once, the localized region of interest is identified, we use polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the localization uncertainty. We demonstrate our framework through numerical experiments on a three-dimensional elastodynamic problem

Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flow using only pre-disaster information has proven to be difficult as a result of problems in predicting the location of debris-flow initiation (i.e., slope failure). However, because catchment topography has concave characteristics, with all channels in a catchment joining each other as they flow downstream, it is possible to predict damage to downstream area using relatively inaccurate initiation points. Based on this, this paper presents methodologies employing debris-flow initiation points generated randomly using statistical slope failure prediction. A many-case simulation across numerous initiation points was performed to quantify the effect of slope-failure location in terms of deviations in the predicted water level and terrain deformation. It was found that the relative standard deviation diminished as the points approached the downstream area, indicating a location-based predictability effect.

A quantum time-dependent spectrum analysis, or simply, quantum spectral analysis (QSA) is presented in this work, and it’s based on Schrödinger’s equation. In the classical world, it is named frequency in time (FIT), which is used here as a complement of the traditional frequency-dependent spectral analysis based on Fourier theory. Besides, FIT is a metric which assesses the impact of the flanks of a signal on its frequency spectrum - not taken into account by Fourier theory and let alone in real time. Even more, and unlike all derived tools from Fourier Theory (i.e., continuous, discrete, fast, short-time, fractional and quantum Fourier Transform, as well as, Gabor) FIT has the following advantages, among others: a) compact support with excellent energy output treatment, b) low computational cost, O(N) for signals and O(N2) for images, c) it does not have phase uncertainties (i.e., indeterminate phase for a magnitude = 0) as in the case of Discrete and Fast Fourier Transform (DFT, FFT, respectively). Finally, we can apply QSA to a quantum signal, that is, to a qubit stream in order to analyze it spectrally.

In this paper, we relate Poisson’s summation formula to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. They both express Fourier dualities within the space of tempered distributions and these dualities are furthermore the inverses of one another. While Poisson’s summation formula expresses a duality between discretization and periodization, Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle expresses a duality between regularization and localization. We define regularization and localization on generalized functions and show that the Fourier transform of regular functions are local functions and, vice versa, the Fourier transform of local functions are regular functions.

Since the beginning, humans advanced their civilization by making better tools to improve their lives. Tools and products were designed for better living considering manufacturing issues, cost and time as predominant criteria. It has become clear that not considering environment and society, both at local/global levels, has now become a major impediment affecting living conditions on a large portion of the Earth and in many societies. Design methodologies should lead to creative solutions with consideration to engineering and economics for practicality but also to environmental and social constraints for sustainability. We propose a comprehensive design methodology based on multidisciplinary design to include the knowledge of humanities, environmentalists, science and engineering, and allowing for experts’ inputs from these areas to provide a holistic approach to engineering design . For example, experts in humanities are expected to interact with stakeholders to evaluate their value systems to provide guidance for the design. The methodology that we synthesize is new and combines (i) Societal level impacts at all scales, (ii) Environmental impacts and (iii) Engineering design with economic impacts, including uncertainty considerations. The proposed design methodology is called Social-Environmental-Economical-Engineering Framework (SEEEF). It can utilize concepts and tools such as Circular Design, Doughnut Economics, design based on environmental life cycle analysis, among others. SEEEF is quantity based and provides steps for evaluating any project or product in an objective manner and will help train engineers in design for sustainability. It also provides non-engineers with a significant role in design to increase their understanding of the hard constraints of engineering. Ultimately, SEEEF allows society to take an informed decision considering short/long term and local/global impacts of the design and the pertinent uncertainties.

This note is a part of my efforts for getting rid of nonlocality from quantum mechanics (QM). Quantum nonlocality is two faced Janus, one face is apparent quantum mechanical nonlocality (assigned with projection postulate), another face is nonlocality of Bell's model with the hidden variables. This paper is directed against the latter. The main casualty of Bell's model is that it contradicts to the Heinsenberg's uncertainty and Bohr's complementarity principles. The aim of this note is to point to the physical seed of the aforementioned principles. This is the {\it quantum postulate}: the existence of indivisible quantum of action given by the Planck constant. Bell's model by contradicting to the basic principles of QM implies rejection of this postulate. Thus, it contradicts not only to the QM-formalism, but also to the fundamental feature of the quantum world that was initially discovered by Planck.

In this paper, we will revisit the derivation of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. We will see how the Heisenberg principle collapses at the Planck scale by introducing a minor modification. The beauty of our suggested modification is that it does not change the main equations in quantum mechanics; it only gives them a Planck scale limit where uncertainty collapses. We suspect that Einstein could have been right after all, when he stated, ``God does not throw dice." His now-famous saying was an expression of his skepticism towards the concept that quantum randomness could be the ruling force, even at the deepest levels of reality. Here we will explore the quantum realm with a fresh perspective, by re-deriving the Heisenberg principle in relation to the Planck scale. We will show how this idea also leads to an upper boundary on uncertainty, in addition to the lower boundary. These upper and lower boundaries are identical for the Planck mass particle; in fact, they are zero, and this highlights the truly unique nature of the Planck mass particle. Further, there may be a close connection between light and the Planck mass particle: In our model, the standard relativistic energy momentum relation also seems to apply to light, while in modern physics light generally stands outside the standard relativistic momentum energy relation. We will also suggest a new way to look at elementary particles, where mass and time are closely related, consistent with some of the recent work in experimental physics. Our model leads to a new time operator that does not appear to be in conflict with the Pauli objection. This indicates that both mass and momentum come in quanta, which are perfectly correlated to an internal Compton `clock' frequency in elementary particles.

According to the current understanding, the recently observed accelerated expansion of the universe is caused by the dark or the vacuum energy. Attempts to calculate the magnitude of this energy using the standard model of particle physics led to values which are 59 – 120 orders of magnitude larger than the experimentally estimated one. Even though the expanding space has positive internal energy, in a flat universe it is completely balanced by the negative energy of gravitational field making the net energy equal to zero. However, the current physical theories may breakdown for times less than or on the order of Planck time and one cannot assume that the above assertion concerning the balance of two energies is valid also in this time scale. In this note it is assumed that this balance of the two energies during the creation of new space as the universe expands takes place only for times larger than the Planck time. If this assumption is correct, the net energy of the newly created space remains positive for times on the order of Planck time and the positive vacuum energy has to be burrowed from empty space before it is being balanced by gravity. This can happen only within the restrictions of the time-energy uncertainty principle. In this note it is shown that such considerations lead to a vacuum energy density of about 0.3 Nanojoules per cubic meter which has to be compared with the measured value of 0.6 Nanojoules per cubic meter.

Supervised land-use/land-cover (LULC) classifications are typically conducted using class assignment rules derived from a set of multiclass training samples. Consequently, classification accuracy varies with the training data set and is thus associated with uncertainty. In this study, we propose a bootstrap resampling and reclassification approach that can be applied for assessing not only the uncertainty in classification results of the bootstrap-training data sets, but also the classification uncertainty of individual pixels in the study area. Two measures of pixel-specific classification uncertainty, namely the maximum class probability and Shannon entropy, were derived from the class probability vector of individual pixels and used for the identification of unclassified pixels. Unclassified pixels that are identified using the traditional chi-square threshold technique represent outliers of individual LULC classes, but they are not necessarily associated with higher classification uncertainty. By contrast, unclassified pixels identified using the equal-likelihood technique are associated with higher classification uncertainty and they mostly occur on or near the borders of different land-cover.

In the full load operating range, wind turbines typically use pitch control to maintain rotor speed and output power at their rated values to guarantee the whole system’s safety. Blade pitch actuators are subject to physical limitations and safety requirements, which imposes strict constraints on pitch angle’s amplitude and rate of change. These constraints will bring windup problem to the integral part of the pitch controller. It leads to deterioration of the pitch control system’s performance or even the instability problem, especially for large-scale turbines operating in extreme uncertain wind conditions or suffering from cyber attacks. This paper designs an anti-windup robust pitch angle control strategy to deal with pitch rate constraint issue to enhance the security of control system. First, to facilitate controller design, a filtered tracking error technique is employed to transform the nonaffine form into an affine one. Subsequently, a feedback robust controller based on UDE is developed to handle the model’s uncertainty and external disturbances. To address the issue of integral saturation in the pitch system and guarantee its safety, an elliptical bounded constraint is integrated into the designed UDE strategy. This bounded UDE controller can improve the stability of power generation quality, reduces the mechanical loads on components and enhance the whole system’s safety. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme is verified on the Wind Turbine Blockset platform in Matlab/Simulink. It can achieve better performance than the traditional method.

This paper presents the experimental implementations of the mathematical models and algorithms developed in Part I. Two experiments are carried out. The first experiment aims at the determinations of the correction coefficients of the mathematical model. The dot grid target is measured and the measurement data are processed by our developed and validated algorithms introduced in Part I. The values of the coefficients are indicated and analysed. Uncertainties are evaluated with implementation of the Monte Carlo method. The second experiment measures a different area of the dot grid target. The measurement results are corrected according to the coefficients determined in the first experiment. The mean residual between the measured points and their corresponding certified values reduced 29.6% after the correction. The sum of squared errors reduced 47.7%. The methods and the algorithms for raw data processing, such as data partition, fittings of dots’ centres, K-means clustering, etc., are the same for both two experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that our method for the correction of the errors produced by the movement of lateral stage of confocal microscope is meaningful and practicable.

Continuous greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming and impacting the habitats of many animals. Researchers in the field of electric power are making efforts to mitigate this situation. Operating and maintaining the power grid in an economic, low-carbon, and stable is challenging. To address the issue, we propose a grid dispatching technique that combines prediction technology, reinforcement learning, and optimization technology. Prediction technology can forecast future power demand and solar power generation, while reinforcement learning and optimization technology can make charging and discharging decisions for energy storage devices based on current and future grid conditions. In the power system, the aggregation of distributed energy resources increases uncertainty, particularly due to the fluctuating generation of renewable energy. This requires the use of advanced predictive control techniques to ensure long-term economic and decarbonization goals. In this paper, we present a real-time dispatching framework that integrates deep learning-based prediction, reinforcement learning-based decision-making, and stochastic optimization techniques. The framework can rapidly adapt to target uncertainty caused by various factors in real-time data distribution and control processes. The proposed framework achieved global Champion in the NeurIPS Challenge 2022 competition and demonstrated its effectiveness in practical scenarios of intelligent building energy management.

The intercomparison among different atmospheric monitoring systems is key for instrument calibration and validation. Common cases involve satellites, radiosonde, radio occultation (e.g. GNSS-RO) and atmospheric model outputs (e.g. ERA5 reanalysis). Since instruments and/or measures are not perfectly collocated, the miss-collocation uncertainty must be considered in the related intercomparison uncertainty budgets.

– Every physical theory involving quantum fields does require a model of the quantum vacuum. The vacuum associated to quantum gravity must incorporate the prescriptions from both the theory of relativity and quantum physics. In this work, starting from the hypothesis of nucleation of sub-Planckian bubbles from a de Sitter vacuum, we study the necessary conditions to obtain baby universes, black holes and particles. The de Sitter-Planck background is described by an “infinite” Quantum Boltzmann statistics that generates fermions and bosons, and manifests itself as a deformation of the geometry that leads to a generalized uncertainty principle and a unified expression for the generalized Compton wavelength and event horizon size, drawing a connection between quantum black holes and elementary particles, the latter seen as a collective organization of the bubbles of the vacuum described by the generalized Compton wavelength. The quantum thermodynamics of black holes is then outlined and the physical history of each bubble is found to depend on the cosmological constant described in terms of thermodynamic pressure. Finally, a suggestive treatment of the Casimir effect is provided in the de Sitter-Planck background with Quantum-Boltzmann statistics and wormholes are explored as bubble coalescence processes.

NASA mission systems proposals are often compared using an equivalent system mass (ESM) framework wherein all elements of technology to deliver an effect- its components, operations and logistics of delivery- are converted to effective masses since this has a known cost scale in space operations. To date, ESM methods and the tools for system comparison have not considered complexities wherein systems that serve a mission span multiple transit and operations stages, such as would be required to support a crewed mission to Mars, and thus do not account for the different mass equivalency factors operational during each period and the inter-dependencies of the costs across the mission. Further, ESM does not account well for the differential reliabilities of the underlying technologies. Less reliability should incur an equivalent mass cost for technologies that might otherwise provide a mass advantage. We introduce an extensions to ESM to address these limitations and show that it provides a direct method for analyzing, optimizing and comparing different mission systems. We demonstrate our extended ESM (xESM) calculation with crop production technologies -- an aspect of the developing offworld biomanufacturing suite -- since it represents a case with strong coupling among stages of the mission and a relatively high-risk profile.

Symmetry in biological and physical systems is a product of self-organization driven by evolutionary processes, or mechanical systems under constraints. Symmetry-based feature extraction or representation by neural networks may unravel the most informative contents in large image databases. Despite significant achievements of artificial intelligence in recognition and classification of regular patterns, the problem of uncertainty remains a major challenge in ambiguous data. In this study, we present an artificial neural network that detects symmetry uncertainty states in human observers. To this end, we exploit a neural network metric in the output of a biologically inspired Self-Organizing Map, the Quantization Error (SOM-QE). Shape pairs with perfect geometric mirror symmetry but a non-homogenous appearance, caused by local variations in hue, saturation, or lightness within and/or across the shapes in a given pair produce, as shown here, longer choice RT for ‘yes’ responses relative to symmetry. These data are consistently mirrored by the variations in the SOM-QE from unsupervised neural network analysis of the same stimulus images. The neural network metric is thus capable of detecting and scaling human symmetry uncertainty in response to patterns. Such capacity is tightly linked to the metric’s proven selectivity to local contrast and color variations in large and highly complex image data.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

Statistical modeling lies at the heart of product design and development throughout numerous engineering disciplines, especially since processing large amounts of data has become increasingly ubiquitous. While mathematical statistics provide elegant guidance pertaining to the question of whether or not some particular underlying modeling assumptions are justified and appropriate, when pursuing a more comprehensive assessment of product design and development other considerations often increase in significance. Therefore, we will examine and analyze the tedious interactions and implications of statistical modeling choices and product liability exposure. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to draw attention to and explore some often overlooked or oversimplified dangers and pitfalls that enter the equation when product design heavily relies on statistical modeling. In particular, through a diligent analysis of both statistical and legal aspects we will explore how statistically optimal procedures may yield far from optimal outcomes in terms of product liability when applied to actual real life problems and why suboptimal nonparametric or robust approaches may constitute better alternatives.

The prediction of wind power output is part of the basic work of power grid dispatching and energy distribution. At present, the output power prediction is mainly obtained by fitting and regressing the historical data. The medium- and long-term power prediction results exhibit large deviations due to the uncertainty of wind power generation. In order to meet the demand for accessing large-scale wind power into the electricity grid and to further improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, it is necessary to develop models for accurate and precise short-term wind power prediction based on advanced algorithms for studying the output power of a wind power generation system. This paper summarizes the contribution of the current advanced wind power forecasting technology and delineates the key advantages and disadvantages of various wind power forecasting models. These models have different forecasting capabilities, update the weights of each model in real time, improve the comprehensive forecasting capability of the model, and have good application prospects in wind power generation forecasting. Furthermore, the case studies and examples in the literature for accurately predicting ultra-short-term and short-term wind power generation with uncertainty and randomness are reviewed and analyzed. Finally, we present prospects for future studies that can serve as useful directions for other researchers planning to conduct similar experiments and investigations.

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for ecological models and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative ecological response models. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate-ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.

The notion of potential-growth indicator came to being in the field of matrix population models long ago, almost simultaneously with the pioneering Leslie model for age-structured population dynamics, albeit the term has been given and the theory developed only recent years. The indicator represents an explicit function, R(L), of matrix L elements and indicates the position of the spectral radius of L relative to 1 on the real axis, thus signifying the population growth, or decline, or stabilization. Some indicators turned out useful in theoretical layouts and practical applications prior to calculating the spectral radius itself. The most senior (1994) and popular indicator, R0(L), is known as the net reproductive rate, and we consider two more ones, R1(L) and RRT(A), developed later on. All the three are different in what concerns their simplicity and the level of generality, and we illustrate them with a case study of Calamagrostis epigeios, a long-rhizome perennial weed actively colonizing open spaces in the temperate zone. While the R0(L) and R1(L) fail respectively because of complexity and insufficient generality, the RRT(L) does succeed, justifying the merit of indication.

It is hypothesized that due to mass-energy equivalence there exist transverse fields caused 7 by energy flows that are analogous to gravitomagnetic fields generated by mass flows. 8 Relativistically correct equations describing energy flow are derived by using the action integral of 9 a Lagrangian and assuming that the properties of energy, when described four-dimensionally with 10 time, are independent of the material system which supports them. The equations allow the 11 electromagnetic and gravitational energy flows to be compared revealing an underlying symmetry 12 of galactic structure.

In this paper study, we develop a Bayesian Network model selection principle that address addresses the incommensurability of network features obtained from incongruous datasets and overcomes performance irregularities of the Minimum Description Length model selection principle. This is achieved (i) by approaching model evaluation as a classification problem, (ii) by estimating the effect that sampling error has on the satisfiability of conditional independence criterion, as reflected by Mutual Information, and (iii) by utilizing this error estimate to penalize uncertainty in the Minimum Uncertainty (MU) model selection principle. We validate our findings numerically and demonstrate the performance advantages of the MU criterion. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of the new model evaluation framework on a tRNA structural biology example.

The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.

This study seeks to determine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences investment decisions and the market value of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. The study examines investment and operational data from 249 energy and petroleum companies between 2015 and 2020, in addition to macroeconomic variables such as EPU. This study investigates the moderating effects of EPU on investments in fixed and intangible assets, as well as its effect on Tobin's Q and the market price per share. The outcomes demonstrate that EPU reduces the costs of both tangible and intangible assets for businesses. In addition, companies with a greater Tobin's Q and market price per share are more impacted by uncertain corporate investment policies. However, financial leverage is found to be negatively correlated with share price and positively correlated with earnings per share and earnings per unit. Tobin's Q is positively correlated with financial leverage, indicating that firms that raise capital through debt are more likely to create value for investors. The research indicates that market-dependent enterprises are more susceptible to the unpredictability of monetary policy. Eventually, the findings suggest that consistent and transparent economic policies may increase the efficiency of corporate investment.

Market turbulence with fiscal investment influences has altered IT infrastructure performance as business pursue extravagant new technology adoption. Yet, few studies have examined how shareware solution goes beyond Medium Size Enterprise that pushes efficiency and sustainability. This PLS-SEM integrated with dual primary compilation approach lessens shallow perceptions coupled with outlooks that streamline each phenomenal activity that is worthy of the necessity for competitive innovation. This unified model was applied to sampling respondents and analyzed using an ordinal regression relationship that generates a robust association that triggers the hypothesis acceptance. The adopting of BOINC shareware mesh network towards unified processing designs that were employed to build the yield by promising financial possibility using coordinated interworks hence improved group accomplishment and establishing greater esteem. This paper showcases a flexible inner IT infrastructure alongside the economic uncertainty with the framework advancement for Exostructure as a Service. Associated theoretical and practical implications were discussed.

A radical, albeit pragmatic protocol for experimental access to putative String/M-theoretic, Einstein Unified Field Mechanical (UFM) additional dimensionality (XD) of the brane-bouquet bulk is presented. If successful, results demonstrate the existence dimensionality beyond the metric of observed physical reality provided by the Standard Model (SM) of particle physics and Cosmology. Quantum Mechanics (QM), as well-known is incomplete and further, should no longer be considered the basement of reality; meaning, Locality and Unitarity – the fundaments of quantum theory are an insufficient basis for extending the representation of reality. A seminal model of Tight Bound States (TBS) below the lowest Bohr orbit in the hydrogen atom, proposed by Vigier, is extended to a Kaluza-Klein-like (KK) cyclical tier of XD hyperspherical cavities defined within a manifold of uncertainty (MOU) of finite radius up to the semi-quantum limit, predicting, within its domain, new spectral lines in Hydrogen. The proposed protocol for this process, with phase modifications, provides efficacy of large-scale additional dimensionality (LSXD) of the brane bulk; XD-LSXD incursion duality accesses nonlocal Einsteinian UFM phenomena, leading to myriad new classes of technological innovation.

Delineating the cropping area of cocoa agroforests is a major challenge for quantifying the contribution of the land use expansion to tropical deforestation. Discriminating cocoa agroforests from tropical transition forests using multi-spectral optical images is difficult due to a similarity in the spectral characteristics of their canopy; moreover, optical sensors are largely impeded by the frequent cloud cover in the tropics. This study explores multi-season Sentinel-1 C-band SAR image to discriminate cocoa agroforests from transition forests for a heterogeneous landscape in central Cameroon. We use an ensemble classifier, random forest, to average SAR image texture features of GLCM (Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix) across seasons; next, we compare classification performance with results from RapidEye optical data. Moreover, we assess the performance of GLCM texture feature extraction at four different grey level quantization: 32bits, 8bits, 6bits, and 4bits. The classification overall accuracy (OA) of texture-based maps outperformed that from an optical image; the highest OA of 88.8% was recorded at 6bits grey level. This quantization level, in comparison to the initial 32bits in SAR images, reduced the class prediction error by 2.9%. Although this prediction gain may be large for the landscape area, the resultant thematic map reveals the decrease and fragmentation of forest cover by cocoa agroforests. According to our classification validation, the Shannon entropy (H) or uncertainty provides a reliable validation for class predictions and reveals detail inference for discriminating inherently heterogeneous vegetation categories. The texture-based classification achieved a reliable accuracy considering the heterogeneity of the landscape and vegetation classes.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), one of the prevalent branches of operations research, aims to design mathematical and computational tools for selecting the best alternative among several choices with respect to specific criteria. In the cloud, MCDA based online brokers uses customer specified criteria to rank different service providers. However, subjected to limited domain knowledge, the customer may exclude relevant or include irrelevant criterion, which could result in suboptimal ranking of service providers. To deal with such misspecification, this research proposes a model, which uses notion of factor analysis from the domain of unsupervised machine learning. The model is evaluated using two quality-of-service (QoS) based datasets. The first dataset i.e., feedback from customers, was compiled using leading review websites such as Cloud Hosting Reviews, Best Cloud Computing Providers, and Cloud Storage Reviews and Ratings. The second dataset i.e., feedback from servers, was generated from cloud brokerage architecture that was emulated using high performance computing (HPC) cluster at University of Luxembourg (HPC @ Uni.lu). The simulation runs in a stable cloud environment i.e. when uncertainty is low, shows that online broker (equipped with the proposed model) produces optimized ranking of service providers as compared to other brokers. This is due the fact that proposed model assigns priorities to criteria objectively (using machine learning) rather than using priorities based on subjective judgments of the customer. This research will benefit potential cloud customers that view insufficient domain knowledge as a limiting factor for acquisition of web services in the cloud.

Since the come up in the 70´s, various decentralized control methodologies have been developed to deal with the challenge of controlling complex and/or spatially distributed systems with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO), e.g., chemical plants, power systems, water systems, etc. In general, the use of distributed information and control structures requires to synthesize control laws in a constrained (decentralized) information structure. The article presents another version of the unified frequency domain robust decentralized controller design method [1]. The proposed design procedure is appropriate for uncertain dynamic MIMO systems given as a set of transfer function matrices. Its main framework is provided by the Equivalent Subsystems Method [1, 24] guaranteeing fulfillment of the necessary and sufficient stability condition of the overall closed-loop system if individual closed-loop equivalent subsystems are stable. Generating sets of equivalent subsystems for all transfer function matrices describing the uncertain MIMO plant allows to use the QFT method [19] to independently design local robust SISO controllers that constitute the resulting decentralized controller implemented on true subsystems. The developed design procedure is verified and illustrated on a case study on robust decentralized level controller design for a quadruple tank process [2, 24].

In this article, we investigate both the Schrödinger and continuity equations in the presence of nonlocal potential that arising from electron-electron interaction and local one in the context of minimal uncertainty in momentum within commutative and noncommutative frameworks. Furthermore, the Frahn–Lemmer potential type is used. Interestingly, the combined effects of both the phase-space noncommutativity and nonlocality on the current density while considering a minimal uncertainty in momentum are examined. We find that the current density, as conventionally defined, does not fulfil the condition of current conservation, thus, a new definition of the current density that encompasses the aforementioned contributions is given. Thereafter, it is shown that the computed current using the new definition of the current density satisfies the current conservation. Noting that using both the $★$product and linear Bopp-Shift, the noncommutativity is inserted.

Motivated by assumptions that Quantum Mechanics (QM) is not the basement of reality and that additional dimensionality (XD) is required to complete and extend the Standard Models (SM) of Particle Physics and Cosmology, experimental protocols utilizing putative properties of Kaluza-Klein-like (KK) cyclicality embedded within Dirac’s electron hypertube model in conjunction with a Dirac covariant polarized vacuum is developed to produce a new type of low-energy tabletop cross section based on topological phase transitions rather than high energy collision sprays as in the LHC. The model is presented in a highly theoretical axiomatic manner utilizing off-the-shelf parameters generally marginalized by the mainstream physics community. When successful the protocol leads to obsolescence of the highly efficacious 100-year supercollider run producing a paradigm shift with an inherent new set of Unified Field (UF) transformations beyond the Galilean Lorentz-Poincaré transformations of the SM to 3rd regime natural science: Classical – Quantum - UF.

Various factors, such as uncertainty of component parameters and uncertainty of sensor meas-urement values, contribute to the difficulty of fault detection in the landing gear retrac-tion/extension hydraulic system. In this paper, we introduce linear fractional transformation technology and uncertainty analysis theory for the construction of the diagnostic bond graph of the landing gear retraction/extension hydraulic system. In this way, interval analytical redundancy relations and fault signature matrix can be derived. Using the fault signature matrix, existing faults of the system can be preliminarily detected and isolated. Additionally, interval analytical re-dundancy relations can be used to detect system faults in detail, and cases analysis can be carried out to determine if the actuator is externally or internally leaky, and if the landing gear selector valve is reversing stuck. Compared to the traditional analytical redundancy relations, this method takes into account the negative factors of uncertainty; and compared to the traditional absolute diagnostic threshold, the interval diagnostic threshold is more accurate and sensitive.

In this paper, based on the symmetrical reliability theory, a research method for the safety factor of overall overturning stability of continuous beam bridge under carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) during cantilever and horizontal rotation construction is proposed. Under the premise that the given target reliability index is known, the method solves the overall overturning stability safety factor of continuous beam bridge under carbon fiber reinforced polymers during cantilever and horizontal rotation construction by using the symmetrical reliability analysis theory and considering the randomness of structural parameters. This method is used to calculate the safety factor and the design reinforcement aera of CRFP of overturning stability and the design reinforcement aera of CRFP of a continuous beam bridge, and the parameters are analyzed. The calculation results show that the randomness of parameters will have a great impact on the overall safety factor and the CRFP aera of overturning stability of cantilever and horizontal rotation construction of continuous beam bridge, and ignoring the influence of randomness of parameters will lead to overestimation of the overall safety factor and underestimation of the CRFP aera of overturning stability of cantilever and horizontal rotation construction of continuous beam bridge.

The spatial resolution measurement limitation of the position-momentum uncertainty principle is shown to mathematically originate from the Bekenstein entropy bound and the associated second law of thermodynamics, as a special case in which a statistical thermodynamic distribution of energies is specialized to a fixed, definite probe energy equal to the average energy of that distribution. This is used in combination with the Wein displacement law to predict an ultraviolet cutoff for Planck blackbody radiation at about ⅛ of the Wein peak. A new UV photon counting experiment is proposed to test for this. A physical understanding of these results may be provided by a UV-complete, intelligible theory of general relativistic quantum mechanics in which the observation of a blackbody spectrum is simply a remote observation of Hawking radiation emitted from black hole fluctuations in the gravitational vacuum.

The description of the microscopic world in quantum mechanics is very different from that in classical physics, and there are some points of view that are contrary to intuition and logic. The first is the loss of reality, the behavior of micro particles shows randomness and hopping. The second is the loss of certainty, the conjugate physical variables of a system cannot be determined synchronously, they satisfy the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. The third is the non-local correlation. The measurement of one particle in the quantum entanglement pair will change the state of the other entangled particle simultaneously. In this paper, some concepts related to quantum entanglement, such as EPR correlation, quantum entanglement correlation function, Bell's inequality and so on, are analyzed in detail. Analysis shows that the mystery and confusion in quantum theory may be caused by the logical problems in its basic framework. Bell's inequality is only a mathematical theorem, but its physical meaning is actually unclear. The Bell state of quantum entangled pair may not satisfy the dynamic equation of quantum theory, so it cannot describe the true state of microscopic particles. In this paper, the correct correlation functions of spin entanglement pair and photonic entanglement pair are strictly derived according to normal logic. Quantum theory is a more fundamental theory than classical mechanics, and they are not parallel relation in logic. However, there are still some unreasonable contents in the framework of quantum theory, which need to be improved. In order to disclose the real relationship between quantum theory and classical mechanics, we propose some experiments which show the wave-particle duality simultaneously and provide intuitionistic teaching materials for the new interpretation of quantum theory.

Rapid developments in the field of underwater photogrammetry have given scientists1the ability to produce accurate 3-dimensional (3D) models which are now increasingly used in the representation and study of local areas of interest. This paper addresses the lack of systematic analysis of 3D reconstruction and navigation fusion strategies, as well as associated error evaluation of models produced at larger scales in GPS-denied environments using a monocular camera (often in deep-sea scenarios). Based on our prior work on automatic scale estimation of Structure from Motion (SfM)-based 3D models using laser scalers, an automatic scale accuracy framework is presented. The confidence level for each of the scale error estimates is independently assessed through the propagation of the uncertainties associated with image features and laser spot detections using a Monte Carlo simulation. The number of iterations used in the simulation was validated through the analysis of the final estimate behaviour. To facilitate the detection and uncertainty estimation of even greatly attenuated laser beams, an automatic laser spot detection method, mitigating the effects of scene texture, was developed, with the main novelty of estimating the uncertainties based on the recovered characteristic shapes of laser spots with radially decreasing1 intensities. The effects of four different reconstruction strategies resulting from the combinations of Incremental/GlobalSfM, and thea priori/a posterioriuse of navigation data were analyzed using two distinct survey scenarios captured during the SUBSAINTES 2017 cruise (doi: 10.17600/17001000). The study demonstrates that surveys with multiple overlaps of non-sequential images result in a nearly identical solution regardless of the strategy (SfM or navigation fusion), while surveys with weakly connected sequentially acquired images are prone to produce broad-scale deformation (doming effect) when navigation is not included in the optimization. Thus the scenarios with complex survey patterns substantially benefit from using multi-objective BA navigation fusion. In all cases, the errors in the models are inferior to 5%, with errors often being around 1%. The effects of combining data from multiple surveys were also evaluated. The introduction of additional vectors in the optimization of multi-survey problems successfully accounted for offset changes present in the underwater USBL-based navigation data and thus minimize the effect of contradicting navigation priors. Our results also illustrate the importance of collecting a multitude of evaluation data at different locations and moments during the survey.

We have recently presented a unified quantum gravity theory [1]. Here we extend on that work and present an even simpler version of that theory. For about hundred years, modern physics has not been able to build a bridge between quantum mechanics and gravity. However, a solution may be found here; we present our quantum gravity theory, which is rooted in indivisible particles where matter and gravity are related to collisions and can be described by collision space-time. In this paper, we also show that we can formulate a quantum wave equation rooted in collision space-time, which is equivalent to mass and energy.The beauty of our theory is that most of the main equations that currently exist in physics are not changed (in terms of predictions), except at the Planck scale. The Planck scale is directly linked to gravity and gravity is, surprisingly, actually a Lorentz symmetry as well as a form of Heisenberg uncertainty break down at the Planck scale. Our theory gives a dramatic simplification of many physics formulas without altering the output predictions. The relativistic wave equation, the relativistic energy momentum relation, and Minkowski space can all be represented by simpler equations when we understand mass at a deeper level. This not attained at a cost, but rather a reflection of the benefit in having gravity and electromagnetism unified under the same theory.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant spike RBD epitopes in complex with spike (S) -protein D614G mutations now predominate globally and increase infectivity by assembling more functional S proteins into the virion. On average, homeopathic medicine contains less than one molecule per dose on average. Single variable SphericalHarmonicY, LaguerreL, WhittakerM, SphericalBesselJ, LegendreP, LegendreQ, LaguerreL, ChebyshevT, and Hypergeometric1F1 Functions pFqarise in connection with the power series solution of the Schrodinger equation or in the summation of perturbation expansions in quantum mechanics. A quantum interpretation of the homeopathic method is presented here through a novel algebraic topology approach to supersymmetry and symmetry breaking in quantum fields and quantum gravity theory with the aim of developing a wide range of physical-based drug design applications in a Small Molecule Quantized Water Memory Network suggesting that the Hidden Black Hole Paradox of Information Loss might be solved under suitable conditions.