In this paper, we will revisit the derivation of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. We will see how the Heisenberg principle collapses at the Planck scale by introducing a minor modification. The beauty of our suggested modification is that it does not change the main equations in quantum mechanics; it only gives them a Planck scale limit where uncertainty collapses. We suspect that Einstein could have been right after all, when he stated, ``God does not throw dice." His now-famous saying was an expression of his skepticism towards the concept that quantum randomness could be the ruling force, even at the deepest levels of reality. Here we will explore the quantum realm with a fresh perspective, by re-deriving the Heisenberg principle in relation to the Planck scale. We will show how this idea also leads to an upper boundary on uncertainty, in addition to the lower boundary. These upper and lower boundaries are identical for the Planck mass particle; in fact, they are zero, and this highlights the truly unique nature of the Planck mass particle. Further, there may be a close connection between light and the Planck mass particle: In our model, the standard relativistic energy momentum relation also seems to apply to light, while in modern physics light generally stands outside the standard relativistic momentum energy relation. We will also suggest a new way to look at elementary particles, where mass and time are closely related, consistent with some of the recent work in experimental physics. Our model leads to a new time operator that does not appear to be in conflict with the Pauli objection. This indicates that both mass and momentum come in quanta, which are perfectly correlated to an internal Compton `clock' frequency in elementary particles.

What is the function of cognition? On one influential account, cognition evolved to co-ordinate behaviour with environmental change or complexity (Godfrey-Smith 1996). Liberal interpretations of this view ascribe cognition to an extraordinarily broad set of biological systems – even bacteria, which modulate their activity in response to salient external cues, would seem to qualify as cognitive agents. However, equating cognition with adaptive flexibility per se glosses over important distinctions in the way biological organisms deal with environmental complexity. Drawing on contemporary advances in theoretical biology and computational neuroscience, we cash these distinctions out in terms of different kinds of generative models, and the representational and uncertainty-resolving capacities they afford. This analysis leads us to propose a formal criterion for delineating cognition from other, more pervasive forms of adaptive plasticity. On this view, biological cognition is rooted in a particular kind of functional organisation; namely, that which enables the agent to detach from the present and engage in counterfactual (active) inference.

Understanding tourist behaviour during and after major tourism crises is essential to help destinations recover. The COVID-19 pandemic, a period of uncertainty and risk, makes it relevant to assess factors that influence travel intentions. There has been little research on tourist behaviour during health crises and, in particular, on perceived health risk and uncertainty effects on travel intentions. This study was carried out during the first months of the pandemic in Brazil and aims to investigate the role of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions for 2020 and 2021. We applied an online survey to 1,150 Brazilian participants from March to May of 2020. Our findings indicate that perceived COVID-19 severity, perceived probability of contracting it, and expected pandemic duration are significant predictors of travel intentions for both years. This paper sheds new light on tourist behaviour in the context of global health crises.

The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.

Visualizing geo-spatial data embedded into a three-dimensional terrain is challenging. The problem becomes even more complex when uncertainty information needs to be presented as well. This paper addresses the question of how to visually communicate all three aspects: the 3D terrain, the geo-spatial data, and the data-associated uncertainty. We argue that visualizing all aspects with a high degree of detail will likely exceed the visual budget. Therefore, we propose a visualization strategy based on prioritizing a selected aspect and presenting the remaining two with less detail. We discuss various design options that allow us to obtain differently prioritized visual representations. Our approach has been implemented as a tool for rapid visualization prototyping in the context of avionics applications. Practical solutions are described for a use case related to the visualization of 3D terrain and uncertain weather data.

Supervised land-use/land-cover (LULC) classifications are typically conducted using class assignment rules derived from a set of multiclass training samples. Consequently, classification accuracy varies with the training data set and is thus associated with uncertainty. In this study, we propose a bootstrap resampling and reclassification approach that can be applied for assessing not only the uncertainty in classification results of the bootstrap-training data sets, but also the classification uncertainty of individual pixels in the study area. Two measures of pixel-specific classification uncertainty, namely the maximum class probability and Shannon entropy, were derived from the class probability vector of individual pixels and used for the identification of unclassified pixels. Unclassified pixels that are identified using the traditional chi-square threshold technique represent outliers of individual LULC classes, but they are not necessarily associated with higher classification uncertainty. By contrast, unclassified pixels identified using the equal-likelihood technique are associated with higher classification uncertainty and they mostly occur on or near the borders of different land-cover.

Errors during manufacture of high value components are not acceptable nowadays in driving industries such as energy and transportation. Sectors such as aerospace, automotive, shipbuilding, nuclear power, large science facilities or wind power manufacture complex and accurate components that demand close measurements and fast feedback into manufacturing processes. New measuring technologies are already available in machine tools, including integrated touch probes and fast interface capabilities. They shall provide the possibility to measure the workpiece during or after the manufacturing process, maintaining the original setup of the workpiece and avoiding the manufacturing process from being interrupted to transport the workpiece to a measuring position. However, the traceability of the measurement process on a machine tool is not ensured yet and measurement data is still not fully reliable for process control or product validation. Due to the similarity between a coordinate measuring machine and a machine tool, some of the methods applied for a correct assessment of uncertainty in coordinate measuring machines are adapted to the challenges of a machine tool. The scientific objective is to determine the uncertainty on a machine tool measurement and, in this way, convert it into a machine integrated traceable measuring process. This paper reviews the fundamentals of machine tool metrology.

A simple method for the determination of caffeine in coffee grains by GC-FID is presented in the current work. The method was fully validated according to ISO 17025 requirements and European Commission regulation. The accuracy, as provided by recovery experiments was higher than 93%, and the precision, as provided by the (%)Relative standard deviation under reproducibility conditions, was lower than 5%. All independent parameters that lead in the increase of methods uncertainty were investigated. In the present work all special precautions were taken into account in order to avoid the use of an internal standard. The method was applied in real samples and possible health claims were investigated.

Statistical modeling lies at the heart of product design and development throughout numerous engineering disciplines, especially since processing large amounts of data has become increasingly ubiquitous. While mathematical statistics provide elegant guidance pertaining to the question of whether or not some particular underlying modeling assumptions are justified and appropriate, when pursuing a more comprehensive assessment of product design and development other considerations often increase in significance. Therefore, we will examine and analyze the tedious interactions and implications of statistical modeling choices and product liability exposure. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to draw attention to and explore some often overlooked or oversimplified dangers and pitfalls that enter the equation when product design heavily relies on statistical modeling. In particular, through a diligent analysis of both statistical and legal aspects we will explore how statistically optimal procedures may yield far from optimal outcomes in terms of product liability when applied to actual real life problems and why suboptimal nonparametric or robust approaches may constitute better alternatives.

Knowledge-based approaches are useful alternatives to predict the Failure Probability (FP) coping with the insufficient data, process integrity, and complexity issue in manufacturing systems. This study proposes a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach as proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP based maintenance planning with subjective information from domain experts. However, the classical-FTA still suffers from uncertainty and static structure limitations which poses a substantial dilemma in predicting FP. To deal with the uncertainty issues, a Fuzzy-FTA (FFTA) model was developed by statistical analysing the effective attributes such as experts' trait impacts, scales variation and, assorted membership and defuzzification functions. Besides, a Bayesian Network (BN) theory was conducted to overcome the static limitation of classical-FTA. The results of FFTA model revealed that the changes in decision attributes were not statistically significant on FP variation while BN model considering conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between events had more impact on predicting FP. After all, the integrated FFTA-BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to estimated FP and the total expected cost. As a practical example, the proposed model was implemented in a semi-automatic filling system in an automotive production line. The outcomes could be useful for upgrading the availability and safety of complex equipment in manufacturing systems.

In this paper, we relate Poisson’s summation formula to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. They both express Fourier dualities within the space of tempered distributions and these dualities are furthermore the inverses of one another. While Poisson’s summation formula expresses a duality between discretization and periodization, Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle expresses a duality between regularization and localization. We define regularization and localization on generalized functions and show that the Fourier transform of regular functions are local functions and, vice versa, the Fourier transform of local functions are regular functions.

NASA mission systems proposals are often compared using an equivalent system mass (ESM) framework wherein all elements of technology to deliver an effect- its components, operations and logistics of delivery- are converted to effective masses since this has a known cost scale in space operations. To date, ESM methods and the tools for system comparison have not considered complexities wherein systems that serve a mission span multiple transit and operations stages, such as would be required to support a crewed mission to Mars, and thus do not account for the different mass equivalency factors operational during each period and the inter-dependencies of the costs across the mission. Further, ESM does not account well for the differential reliabilities of the underlying technologies. Less reliability should incur an equivalent mass cost for technologies that might otherwise provide a mass advantage. We introduce an extensions to ESM to address these limitations and show that it provides a direct method for analyzing, optimizing and comparing different mission systems. We demonstrate our extended ESM (xESM) calculation with crop production technologies -- an aspect of the developing offworld biomanufacturing suite -- since it represents a case with strong coupling among stages of the mission and a relatively high-risk profile.

The aim of this article is to propose a core game theory model of transaction costs wherein it is indicated how direct costs determine the probability of loss and subsequent transaction costs. The existence of optimum is proven, and the way in which exposure influences the location of the optimum is demonstrated. The decisions are described as a two-player game and it is discussed how the transaction cost sharing rule determines whether the optimum point of transaction costs is the same as the equilibrium of the game. The dispute between actors regarding changing the share of transaction costs to be paid by each party is modeled by a non-cooperative bargaining game. Requirements of efficient transaction cost sharing rules are defined, and it is posited that solution exists which is not unique. Policy conclusions are also devised based on principles of design of institutions to influence the nature of transaction costs.

We have recently presented a unified quantum gravity theory [1]. Here we extend on that work and present an even simpler version of that theory. For about hundred years, modern physics has not been able to build a bridge between quantum mechanics and gravity. However, a solution may be found here; we present our quantum gravity theory, which is rooted in indivisible particles where matter and gravity are related to collisions and can be described by collision space-time. In this paper, we also show that we can formulate a quantum wave equation rooted in collision space-time, which is equivalent to mass and energy.The beauty of our theory is that most of the main equations that currently exist in physics are not changed (in terms of predictions), except at the Planck scale. The Planck scale is directly linked to gravity and gravity is, surprisingly, actually a Lorentz symmetry as well as a form of Heisenberg uncertainty break down at the Planck scale. Our theory gives a dramatic simplification of many physics formulas without altering the output predictions. The relativistic wave equation, the relativistic energy momentum relation, and Minkowski space can all be represented by simpler equations when we understand mass at a deeper level. This not attained at a cost, but rather a reflection of the benefit in having gravity and electromagnetism unified under the same theory.

Coastal inundation is an increasing problem. Sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of inundation, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision-making along adaptive pathways is now being used internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating decision points in the future however it unfolds. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in such planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments which recognizes different types of decision and identifies the types of uncertainty that must be accounted for, such as statistical, scenario and deep uncertainty types. We show how coastal-inundation hazard can be mapped and presented in a way that clearly separates sources of uncertainty, so that they are transparent within a dynamic adaptive pathways planning process. Traditional coastal inundation maps show inundated area only. We present maps of inundation depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how much sea-level rise can be tolerated. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better identify decision points and their expected time range, which provides more useful input to the adaptation process than traditional coastal inundation assessments.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), one of the prevalent branches of operations research, aims to design mathematical and computational tools for selecting the best alternative among several choices with respect to specific criteria. In the cloud, MCDA based online brokers uses customer specified criteria to rank different service providers. However, subjected to limited domain knowledge, the customer may exclude relevant or include irrelevant criterion, which could result in suboptimal ranking of service providers. To deal with such misspecification, this research proposes a model, which uses notion of factor analysis from the domain of unsupervised machine learning. The model is evaluated using two quality-of-service (QoS) based datasets. The first dataset i.e., feedback from customers, was compiled using leading review websites such as Cloud Hosting Reviews, Best Cloud Computing Providers, and Cloud Storage Reviews and Ratings. The second dataset i.e., feedback from servers, was generated from cloud brokerage architecture that was emulated using high performance computing (HPC) cluster at University of Luxembourg (HPC @ Uni.lu). The simulation runs in a stable cloud environment i.e. when uncertainty is low, shows that online broker (equipped with the proposed model) produces optimized ranking of service providers as compared to other brokers. This is due the fact that proposed model assigns priorities to criteria objectively (using machine learning) rather than using priorities based on subjective judgments of the customer. This research will benefit potential cloud customers that view insufficient domain knowledge as a limiting factor for acquisition of web services in the cloud.

According to the current understanding, the recently observed accelerated expansion of the universe is caused by the dark or the vacuum energy. Attempts to calculate the magnitude of this energy using the standard model of particle physics led to values which are 59 – 120 orders of magnitude larger than the experimentally estimated one. Even though the expanding space has positive internal energy, in a flat universe it is completely balanced by the negative energy of gravitational field making the net energy equal to zero. However, the current physical theories may breakdown for times less than or on the order of Planck time and one cannot assume that the above assertion concerning the balance of two energies is valid also in this time scale. In this note it is assumed that this balance of the two energies during the creation of new space as the universe expands takes place only for times larger than the Planck time. If this assumption is correct, the net energy of the newly created space remains positive for times on the order of Planck time and the positive vacuum energy has to be burrowed from empty space before it is being balanced by gravity. This can happen only within the restrictions of the time-energy uncertainty principle. In this note it is shown that such considerations lead to a vacuum energy density of about 0.3 Nanojoules per cubic meter which has to be compared with the measured value of 0.6 Nanojoules per cubic meter.

Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from 8 Global Climate Models. The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets have been generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997-2003) and the validation (2004-2010) period respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimate low flow respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended along with other methods of sustainable river basin managements.

Is it true that the nuclear technology applied to electric energy generation offers a clean, safe, reliable and affordable i.e. sustainable alternative? Yes it is, but its impact on the environment strongly depends on the implementation bearing residual risks due to a human factor, technical failures or natural catastrophes. A full response is therefore difficult and can first be given when the wicked multi-disciplinary problems get well formulated and “solved”. These problems have multi-dimensional nature lying at the interface between: necessary R&D effort, the industrial deployment and the technology impact in view of the environmental sustainability including the management of produced hazardous waste. This enormous complexity indicates that just a description of the problem might represent a problem. The paper proposes a holistic approach to assess the nuclear energy systems potential with respect to sustainable performance applying Multi-criteria decision analysis with a suitable objective tree and a multi-level criteria structure and examines the trading-off techniques for ranking of the alternatives. The framework proposes a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholders treatment which can be used as a pre-decisional support towards an implementation of nuclear fuel cycles adapted to national preferences and priorities. Proposed approach addresses some aspects of the environmental footprint of nuclear energy systems. Advanced nuclear fuel cycles, previously investigated by the NEA/OECD expert group WASTEMAN, are analyzed as a case study. Sustainability facets of waste management, resource utilization and economics are in focus.

A rapid, precise, accurate and low cost method for the determination of vitamin E (α-tocopherol) in cereal products and biscuits was developed. The uncertainty was calculated for the first time and the methods were performed in different cereal products and biscuits, characterized as “superfoods”. The limits of detection and quantification were calculated. Accuracy and precision were estimated using the certified reference material FAPAS T10112QC and the determined values were in good accordance with the certified values. The health claims according to the daily reference values for vitamin E were calculated and the results proved that the majority of the samples examined showed %daily value higher than 15%.

The theories of quantum mechanics and relativity dramatically altered our understanding of the universe ushering in the era of modern physics. Quantum theory deals with objects probabilistically at small scales, whereas relativity deals classically with motion in space and time. We show here that the mathematical structures of quantum theory and of relativity follow together from pure thought, defined and uniquely constrained by the same elementary ``combining and sequencing'' symmetries that underlie standard arithmetic and probability. The key is uncertainty, which inevitably accompanies observation of quantity and imposes the use of pairs of numbers. The symmetries then lead directly to the use of complex \sqrt{-1} arithmetic, the standard calculus of quantum mechanics, and the Lorentz transformations of relativistic spacetime. One dimension of time and three dimensions of space are thus derived as the profound and inevitable framework of physics.

Phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations of virtual particles in high energy physics has been mathematically modeled by a third order differential equation. Aim of present theory is to unravel underlying mathematical equation capable of explaining microscopic phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations. Solution of such a differential equation after applying appropriate boundary conditions gives an acceptable wave function i.e. . Operation of energy and time operator on this wave function proves that these operators do not hold commutative property. Time energy uncertainty principle has been derived by calculating variance of energy and time for the same wave function.

Future projections from climate models and recent studies shows impact of climate change on rainfall indices estimation. This study assesses the simulations of rainfall indices based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP3 in the some of subbasin Hamedan Province West of Iran. The analysis of the rainfall indices are: simple rainfall intensity, very heavy rainfall days, maximum one-day rainfall and rainfall frequency has been carried out in this study to evaluating the impact of climate change on rainfall indices events. Relative change in three rainfall indices is investigated by GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarious A1B and B1 and RCP8.5, RCP8.5 scenarios for the future periods 2020–2045 and 2045-2065. The final results show that each of rainfall indices differs in stations under the three GCMs model (GIAOM, MIHR, MPEH5) and emission scenarios A1B and B1, and RCP2.5, RCP8.5 scenarios. Relative change of daily intensity index varies from -9.93% - 25%, very heavy rainfall days 20.71% - 25.9% and yearly rainfall depth -15.71% - 13% can be observed at study area in 50y for future periods (2046–2065). Rainfall indices of sum wet days, nday >1mm and maximum one-day rainfall are projected to decrease under the senariuos B1,A1B and sum wet days, simple daily intensity and heavy Rainfall days>10 projected to decrease under the RCP2.6.

The energy, momentum and the action associated with the time domain transition radiation fields are investigated. The results show that for a charged particle moving with speed $v$, the longitudinal momentum associated with the transition radiation is approximately equal to $E/c$ for values of $1-v/c$ smaller than about 10^-3 where $E$ is the total radiated energy and c is the speed of light in free space. The action of the transition radiation, defined as the product of the energy dissipated and the duration of the emission, increases as $1-v/c$ decreases and, for an electron, it becomes equal to $h/4\pi$ when $v=c-v_m$ where $v_m$ is the speed associated with the lowest energy state of a particle confined inside the universe and h is the Plank constant. Combining these results with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, an expression for the electronic charge based on other fundamental physical constants is derived. The best agreement between the experimentally observed electronic charge and the theoretical prediction is obtained when one assumes that the actual size of the universe is about 250 times larger than the visible universe.

Delineating the cropping area of cocoa agroforests is a major challenge for quantifying the contribution of the land use expansion to tropical deforestation. Discriminating cocoa agroforests from tropical transition forests using multi-spectral optical images is difficult due to a similarity in the spectral characteristics of their canopy; moreover, optical sensors are largely impeded by the frequent cloud cover in the tropics. This study explores multi-season Sentinel-1 C-band SAR image to discriminate cocoa agroforests from transition forests for a heterogeneous landscape in central Cameroon. We use an ensemble classifier, random forest, to average SAR image texture features of GLCM (Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix) across seasons; next, we compare classification performance with results from RapidEye optical data. Moreover, we assess the performance of GLCM texture feature extraction at four different grey level quantization: 32bits, 8bits, 6bits, and 4bits. The classification overall accuracy (OA) of texture-based maps outperformed that from an optical image; the highest OA of 88.8% was recorded at 6bits grey level. This quantization level, in comparison to the initial 32bits in SAR images, reduced the class prediction error by 2.9%. Although this prediction gain may be large for the landscape area, the resultant thematic map reveals the decrease and fragmentation of forest cover by cocoa agroforests. According to our classification validation, the Shannon entropy (H) or uncertainty provides a reliable validation for class predictions and reveals detail inference for discriminating inherently heterogeneous vegetation categories. The texture-based classification achieved a reliable accuracy considering the heterogeneity of the landscape and vegetation classes.

This work assesses sea-level rise using three different models created on Free and Open-Source Software for Geographic Information System (FOSS4GIS). Based on regional projections of Special Report on Climate Change and Oceans and Cryosphere (SROCC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the models were applied to a case of study on Rio Grande do Sul coast – Brazil under different sea-level rise scenarios by the end of this century. The End Point Rate for QGIS (EPR4Q), calculates a shoreline projection using End Point Rate method. The Uncertainty Bathtub Model (uBTM), analyses the sea-level rise impact by the uncertainty of sea-level projec-tions and vertical error of the Digital Elevation/Terrain Model (DEM/DTM). The Bruun Rule for Google Earth Engine Model (BRGM) predicts the shoreline position with sea-level rise, using topographic and bathymetric data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Coastal Modelling System (SMC – Brazil), respectively. The results indicated a maximum shoreline retreat for 2100 of -502 m and -1727 m using EPR4Q and BRGM, correspondingly. The uBTM using the land-use of Mapbiomas showed a maximum of 44.57 km2 of urban area impacted by the sea-level flood. This research highlights the possibility of performing coastal management analysis in GIS environ-ment using non-commercial software.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

Recent researches proved that the underbridge geometry can be reconstructed by mounting a 3D laser scanner on a motorized cart travelling on a walkway located under the bridge. The walkway is moved by a truck and the accuracy of the bridge model depends on the accuracy of the trajectory of the scanning head with respect to a fixed reference system. In this paper, we describe the metrological characterization of a method that uses non-contact systems to identify the relative motion of the cart with respect to the walkway; the orientation of the walkway with respect to the bridge is determined using inclinometers and optical rails, while the position of the truck with respect to the bridge is measured using a conventional odometer. The measurement uncertainty of the proposed system was initially evaluated by numerical simulations and successively verified by experiments in laboratory conditions. The complete system has then been tested in operative conditions; the validity of the proposed approach has been demonstrated by comparing the geometry of buildings reconstructed with the proposed system with the geometry obtained with a static scan. Results evidenced that the errors are approximately 6 mm.

Model-based design has received considerable attention in biological and chemical industries over the last two decades. However, the parameter uncertainties of first-principle models are critical in model-based design and have led to the development of robustification concepts. Various strategies were introduced to solve the robust optimization problem. Most approaches suffer from either unreasonable computational expense or low approximation accuracy. Moreover, they are not rigorous and do not consider robust optimization problems where parameter correlation and equality constraints exist. In this work, we propose a highly efficient framework for solving robust optimization problems with the so-called point estimation method (PEM). The PEM has a fair trade-off between computation expense and approximation accuracy and can be easily extended to problems of parameter correlations. From a statistical point of view, moment-based methods are used to approximate robust inequality and equality constraints. We also suggest employing the information from global sensitivity analysis to further simplify robust optimization problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework with two case studies where one is to design a heating/cooling profile for the essential part of a continuous production process and the other is to optimize the feeding profile for a fed-batch reactor of the penicillin fermentation process. The results reveal that the proposed approach can be used successfully for complex (bio)chemical problems in model-based design.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

A quantum time-dependent spectrum analysis, or simply, quantum spectral analysis (QSA) is presented in this work, and it’s based on Schrödinger’s equation. In the classical world, it is named frequency in time (FIT), which is used here as a complement of the traditional frequency-dependent spectral analysis based on Fourier theory. Besides, FIT is a metric which assesses the impact of the flanks of a signal on its frequency spectrum - not taken into account by Fourier theory and let alone in real time. Even more, and unlike all derived tools from Fourier Theory (i.e., continuous, discrete, fast, short-time, fractional and quantum Fourier Transform, as well as, Gabor) FIT has the following advantages, among others: a) compact support with excellent energy output treatment, b) low computational cost, O(N) for signals and O(N2) for images, c) it does not have phase uncertainties (i.e., indeterminate phase for a magnitude = 0) as in the case of Discrete and Fast Fourier Transform (DFT, FFT, respectively). Finally, we can apply QSA to a quantum signal, that is, to a qubit stream in order to analyze it spectrally.

We present a generalized state-space model formulation particularly motivated by an online scheduling perspective. Through these proposed generalizations, we enable a natural way to handle routinely encountered disturbances and a rich set of corresponding counter-decisions. Thereby, greatly simplifying and extending the possible application of mathematical programming based online scheduling solutions to diverse application settings.

SLEUTH Model (slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) is an important tool for landuse planning and land policy. To evaluate the performance of SLEUTH model, implementation of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is essential. The main limitation of SA in SLEUTH application is a lack of insight into model input self-modification parameters (SMPs) variation, namely, uncertainty involved in the model transfer metrics and model presumptions, which often misled the decision makers and model users. To address this issue, this study divided the forward process into two stages. Firstly, during the transfer process ①, the contribution scores of five SMPs were drawn, and parameters highly sensitive to model output were given. Apart from that, the recommended initial value for SMPs of 0.11, 0.2, 0.87, 1.13, 15, 1.01, 0.49 were found to be subordinated to such a heterogeneous urban area simulation. Secondly, during the transfer process ②, SMP caused imagery metrics indicated the disparity between parameters with Fixed Reference and with Successive Reference. Reversely, it derives reasonable threshold for the best fit values of five prediction coefficients’ initialization by comparing the real image with the predicted one. The framework of SLEUTH model transfer mechanism not only could distinguish highly sensitive SMPs with higher contribution scores, but also could give parametric analysis for simulation imagery based on metrics. The study was found to be a practical tool for quantization response of model input variables for modelling complex urban systems. So, this insight can help geographic information scientists decide how to find out the inner forward transfer mechanism of SLEUTH model for further make good use of it and improve the model.

: Mistrust, amplified by numerous artificial intelligence (AI) related incidents, has caused the energy and industrial sectors to be amongst the slowest adopter of AI methods. Central to this issue is the black-box problem of AI, which impedes investments and fast becoming a legal hazard for users. Explainable AI (XAI) is a recent paradigm to tackle this challenge. Being the backbone of the industry, the prognostic and health management (PHM) domain has recently been introduced to XAI. However, many deficiencies, particularly lack of explanation assessment methods and uncertainty quantification, plague this young field. In this paper, we elaborate a framework on explainable anomaly detection and failure prognostic employing a Bayesian deep learning model to generate local and global explanations from the PHM tasks. An uncertainty measure of the Bayesian model is utilized as marker for anomalies expanding the prognostic explanation scope to include model’s confidence. Also, the global explanation is used to improve prognostic performance, an aspect neglected from the handful of PHM-XAI publications. The quality of the explanation is finally examined employing local accuracy and consistency properties. The method is tested on real-world gas turbine anomalies and synthetic turbofan data failure prediction. Seven out of eight of the tested anomalies were successfully identified. Additionally, the prognostic outcome showed 19% improvement in statistical terms and achieved the highest prognostic score amongst best published results on the topic.

The description of the microscopic world in quantum mechanics is very different from that in classical physics, and there are some points of view that are contrary to intuition and logic. The first is the loss of reality, the behavior of micro particles shows randomness and hopping. The second is the loss of certainty, the conjugate physical variables of a system cannot be determined synchronously, they satisfy the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. The third is the non-local correlation. The measurement of one particle in the quantum entanglement pair will change the state of the other entangled particle simultaneously. In this paper, some concepts related to quantum entanglement, such as EPR correlation, quantum entanglement correlation function, Bell's inequality and so on, are analyzed in detail. Analysis shows that the mystery and confusion in quantum theory may be caused by the logical problems in its basic framework. Bell's inequality is only a mathematical theorem, but its physical meaning is actually unclear. The Bell state of quantum entangled pair may not satisfy the dynamic equation of quantum theory, so it cannot describe the true state of microscopic particles. In this paper, the correct correlation functions of spin entanglement pair and photonic entanglement pair are strictly derived according to normal logic. Quantum theory is a more fundamental theory than classical mechanics, and they are not parallel relation in logic. However, there are still some unreasonable contents in the framework of quantum theory, which need to be improved. In order to disclose the real relationship between quantum theory and classical mechanics, we propose some experiments which show the wave-particle duality simultaneously and provide intuitionistic teaching materials for the new interpretation of quantum theory.

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

Soil hydraulic properties are often derived indirectly, i.e. computed from easily available soil properties with pedotransfer functions (PTFs), when those are needed for catchment, regional or continental scale applications. When predicted soil hydraulic parameters are used for the modelling of the state and flux of water in soils, uncertainty of the computed values can provide more detailed information when drawing conclusions. The aim of this study was to update the previously published European PTFs (Tóth et al., 2015, euptf v1.4.0) by providing prediction uncertainty calculation built into the transfer functions. The new set of algorithms was derived for point predictions of soil water content at saturation (0 cm matric potential head), field capacity (both -100 and -330 cm matric potential head), wilting point (-15.000 cm matric potential head), plant available water, and saturated hydraulic conductivity, as well as the Mualem-van Genuchten model parameters of the moisture retention and hydraulic conductivity curve. The minimum set of input properties for the prediction is soil depth and sand, silt and clay content. The effect of including additional information like soil organic carbon content, bulk density, calcium carbonate content, pH and cation exchange capacity were extensively analysed. The PTFs were derived adopting the random forest method. The advantage of the new PTFs is that they i) provide information about prediction uncertainty, ii) are significantly more accurate than the euptfv1, iii) can be applied for more predictor variable combinations than the euptfv1, 32 instead of 5, and iv) are now also derived for the prediction of water content at -100 cm matric potential head and plant available water content.

Over a billion people live in slums, with poor sanitation, education, property rights and working conditions having direct impact on current residents and future generations. A key problem in relation to slums is slum mapping. Without delineations of where all slum settlements are, informed decisions cannot be made by policymakers in order to benefit the most in need. Satellite images have been used in combination with machine learning models to try and fill the gap in data availability of slum locations. Deep learning has been used on RGB images with some success but since labeled satellite images of slums are relatively low quality and the physical/visual manifestation of slums significantly varies within and across countries, it is important to quantify the uncertainty of predictions for reliable application in downstream tasks. Our solution is to train Monte Carlo dropout U-Net models on multispectral 13-band Sentinel-2 images from which we can calculate pixelwise epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty in our predictions. We trained our model on labelled images of Mumbai and verified our epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty quantification approach using altered models trained on modified datasets. We also used SHAP values to investigate how the different features contribute towards the model’s predictions and this showed that certain short-wave infrared and red-edge image bands are powerful features for determining the locations of slums within images. Having created our model with uncertainty quantification, in the future it can be applied to downstream tasks and decision-makers will know where predictions have been made with low uncertainty, giving them greater confidence in its deployment.

Starting from unidentified objects moving inside a two-dimensional Euclidean manifold, we propose a simple method to detect the topological changes that occur during their reciprocal interactions and shape morphing. This method, which allows the detection of topological holes development and disappearance, makes it possible to solve the uncertainty due to disconnectedness, lack of information and absence of objects’ sharp boundaries, i.e., the three troubling issues which prevent scientists to select the required proper sets/subsets during their experimental assessment of natural and artificial dynamical phenomena, such as fire propagation, wireless sensor networks, migration flows, neural networks’ and cosmic bodies’ analysis.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the Spanish economy hard. The result is an unprecedented economic and social crisis due to uncertainty about the remedy, and due to the socio-economic effects on people’s lives. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of the macro-economic impact of COVID-19 in 2020, using the principal indicators of the Spanish economic and productive model. National statistics were examined in the search for impacts or anomalies occurring since the beginning of the pandemic. To estimate the strength of the impact on each of the indicators analysed, we used Bayesian structural time series. Results: In 2020, the cumulative impact on the Gross Domestic Product was of -11.41% [95% credible interval: -13.46; -9.29]. The indicator for Business Turnover fell by -9.37% [-12.71; -6.07]. The reduction in business activity was related to the sharp fall in demand. The Spanish employment market was strongly affected; our estimates showed a cumulative increase of 11.9% [4.27; 19.45] in the rate of unemployment during 2020. The autonomous communities which are economically the most heavily dependent on the services sector were those which recorded the worst indicators. Conclusions: Our estimates portray a dramatic situation in our country, and show all too clearly the fragility of a productive system which has to make the behavioural changes that are necessary to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.

The experiments of Project 8 have been excellent, but the expected goals still difficult to achieve. So much so that some of the results at your fingertips were also missing. In view of this, the focus of this article is to clarify several easy confused concepts. Only in this way, we can reasonably explain the experimental data. The main points are as follows: 1. The value c of the light speed in vacuum and a particle with zero static mass, both of which do not exist in the reality. That is to say, the so-called a photon's static mass is equal to zero but has energy, which is a paradox that confuses two different definitional domains. 2. In the reality, photons are high-speed particles generated by electromagnetic radiation. They must have the characteristics of (static) mass, energy and wave, in order to describe the main body to aim at photons from different angles. 3. After any main body comes into being electromagnetic radiation, its static mass will inevitably decrease accordingly. 4. The charge-mass ratio of an electron is a physical constant, which is the ratio of its charge to the amount of matter, and is not affected by relativistic effects and electromagnetic radiation. 5. The uncertainty of moving electrons is caused by random electromagnetic radiations. Finally, it is pointed out that if the cyclotron frequency of a single electron is measured, and at the same time, its de Broglie wavelength or frequency can also be measured, then its static mass can be obtained. Even so, the expected goals are still difficult to achieve, because random electromagnetic radiations are always taking away continually the matter composition of the single electron being measured. However, this was precisely a result of the research obtained by Project 8, and had universality, which should be reflect on.

The classical uncertainty principle inequalities were imposed as a mathematical constraint over the general relativity geodesic equation. In this way, the uncertainty principle was reformulated in terms of the proper space-time length element, Planck length and a geodesic-derived scalar, leading to a geometric expression for the uncertainty principle (GeUP). This re-formulation confirmed the necessity for a minimum length for the space-time line element in the geodesic, dependent on a geodesic-derived scalar which made the expression Lorentz-covariant. In agreement with quantum gravity theories, GeUP required the imposition of a perturbation over the background Minkowski metric unrelated to classical gravity. When applied to the Schwarzschild metric, a geodesic exclusion zone was found around the singularity where uncertainty in space-time diverged to infinity.

Since the beginning, humans advanced their civilization by making better tools to improve their lives. Tools and products were designed for better living considering manufacturing issues, cost and time as predominant criteria. It has become clear that not considering environment and society, both at local/global levels, has now become a major impediment affecting living conditions on a large portion of the Earth and in many societies. Design methodologies should lead to creative solutions with consideration to engineering and economics for practicality but also to environmental and social constraints for sustainability. We propose a comprehensive design methodology based on multidisciplinary design to include the knowledge of humanities, environmentalists, science and engineering, and allowing for experts’ inputs from these areas to provide a holistic approach to engineering design . For example, experts in humanities are expected to interact with stakeholders to evaluate their value systems to provide guidance for the design. The methodology that we synthesize is new and combines (i) Societal level impacts at all scales, (ii) Environmental impacts and (iii) Engineering design with economic impacts, including uncertainty considerations. The proposed design methodology is called Social-Environmental-Economical-Engineering Framework (SEEEF). It can utilize concepts and tools such as Circular Design, Doughnut Economics, design based on environmental life cycle analysis, among others. SEEEF is quantity based and provides steps for evaluating any project or product in an objective manner and will help train engineers in design for sustainability. It also provides non-engineers with a significant role in design to increase their understanding of the hard constraints of engineering. Ultimately, SEEEF allows society to take an informed decision considering short/long term and local/global impacts of the design and the pertinent uncertainties.

This paper introduces a surrogate model to reduce the huge computational load in the process of simulation-optimization and uncertainty analysis. First, the groundwater numerical simulation model was established, calibrated and verified in the northeast of Hetao Plain. Second, two surrogate models of simulation model were established using support vector regression (SVR) method, one (surrogate model A, SMA) was used to describe the corresponding relationship between the pumping rate and average groundwater table drawdown, and another (surrogate model B, SMB) was used to express the corresponding relationship between the hydrogeological parameter values and average groundwater table drawdown. Third, an optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the maximum total pumping rate as objective function and the limitative average groundwater table drawdown as constraint condition, the SMA was invoked by the optimization model for obtaining the optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Finally, the SMB was invoked in the process of uncertainty analysis for assessing the reliability of optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error between simulation model and the two surrogate models are both less than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The SVR surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational load, but also maintain high computational accuracy. The optimal total pumping rate is 7947 m3/d and the reliability of optimal scheme is 40.21%. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme and assessing the reliability of scheme quickly and accurately.

Uncertainty is the main source of risk of geological hazards in tunnel engineering. Uncertainty information not only affects the accuracy of evaluation results, but also affects the reliability of decision-making schemes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and control the impact of uncertainty on risk. In this study, the problems in existing entropy-hazard model such as inefficient decision-making and failure of decision-making are analysed, and an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process are proposed. Then the tolerance cost, the key factor in the decision-making model, is also discussed. It is considered that the amount of change in risk value (R1) can better reflect the psychological behaviour of decision-makers. Thirdly, common attribute decision models, such as the expected utility-entropy model, are analysed, and then the viewpoint of different types of decision-making issues that require different decision methods is proposed. The well-known Allais paradox is explained by the proposed methods. Finally, the engineering application results show that the uncertainty control idea proposed here is accurate and effective. This research indicates a direction for further research into uncertainty, and risk control, issues affecting underground engineering works.

A radical, albeit pragmatic protocol for experimental access to putative String/M-theoretic, Einstein Unified Field Mechanical (UFM) additional dimensionality (XD) of the brane-bouquet bulk is presented. If successful, results demonstrate the existence dimensionality beyond the metric of observed physical reality provided by the Standard Model (SM) of particle physics and Cosmology. Quantum Mechanics (QM), as well-known is incomplete and further, should no longer be considered the basement of reality; meaning, Locality and Unitarity – the fundaments of quantum theory are an insufficient basis for extending the representation of reality. A seminal model of Tight Bound States (TBS) below the lowest Bohr orbit in the hydrogen atom, proposed by Vigier, is extended to a Kaluza-Klein-like (KK) cyclical tier of XD hyperspherical cavities defined within a manifold of uncertainty (MOU) of finite radius up to the semi-quantum limit, predicting, within its domain, new spectral lines in Hydrogen. The proposed protocol for this process, with phase modifications, provides efficacy of large-scale additional dimensionality (LSXD) of the brane bulk; XD-LSXD incursion duality accesses nonlocal Einsteinian UFM phenomena, leading to myriad new classes of technological innovation.

The incorporation of wind generation introduces challenges to the operation of the power system due to its uncertain characteristics. Therefore, the development of methods to accurately model the uncertainty is necessary. In this paper, the spatio-temporal Kriging and analog approaches are used to forecast wind power generation and used as input to solve an economic dispatch problem, considering the uncertainties of wind generation. Spatio-temporal Kriging takes into account the spatial and temporal information given by the database to enhance wind forecasts. We evaluate the performance of using the spatio-temporal Kriging, and comparisons are carried out versus other approaches in the framework of the economic power dispatch problem, for which simulations are developed on the modified IEEE 3-bus and IEEE 24-bus test systems. The results show that the use of Kriging-based spatio-temporal models in the context of economic power dispatch can provide an opportunity for lower operating costs in the presence of uncertainty when compared to other approaches.

We survey the main results emerging in the rapidly developing field that considers the geometry of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. Our ideas of stability depend on variational principles – Maximum Entropy together with Least Action (and the isomorphic Least Exertion) – and this stability (invariance in time) indicates the centrality of the geometries of the systems. We explore a variety of examples of the application of thermodynamics in both macro- and micro-systems, and propose that irreversibility is an intrinsic and fundamental property of the physical realm (instead of being merely emergent). Using the concept of complex time, we examine the underlying mathematical unity of quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, and geometrical thermodynamics. We show how the Planck and Boltzmann constants provide the fundamental quantum units for the phenomenological characteristics of the two Noether-conserved quantities controlling overall thermodynamic behaviour: respectively, energy and entropy production. We discuss the far-reaching isomorphisms (between all of complex time, temperature and the system symmetry) that always exist for Maximum Entropy systems, even as they exhibit either irreversible (dissipative, yet still dynamically stable) or reversible (including stable and static geometries) behaviours.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the timing of innovative investment in technology product life cycles using a compound binomial option with management flexibility. Considering the business cycles changes in the macroeconomic will affect consumer purchasing power. The focus is how to evaluate the optimal investment strategy and the project value. It was applied to different product stages (three stages including production innovation, manufacture innovation, and operation innovation) and factored to different risks to build a technology innovation strategy model. An aim of this study is the options premium of the best strategy timing for each innovation stage. Its application of the compound binomial options for the manufacture innovation will only be considered after the execution of the production innovation. The same condition is applied to the operation innovation, which will only be considered after the execution of the manufacture innovation. Then, this paper constructs the dynamic investment sequential decision model, assesses the feasibility of an investment strategy, and makes a decision on the appropriate project value and options premium for each stage under the possible change of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper investigates the product life cycle innovation investment topic by using the compound binomial options method and will provide a more flexible strategy decision compared with other trend forecast criteria.

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

For more than eighty years the standard interpretation (SI) has dominated quantum physics. Perspectives that have tried to challenge this domination have been remarkably unsuccessful. As a result, quantum theory (QT) has remained remarkably stagnant. The article offers a critical examination of SI and provides an explanation for its continued domination. It also uses Bohmian mechanics—a theoretical perspective advanced by American physicist David Bohm—as a case study for why alternative interpretations have failed to displace SI. The article sees the main reason for the failure to achieve much progress beyond SI in the unresolved philosophical problem of subject-object relation that continues to plague our study of physics. The article sketches a path to a possible solution and outlines a new science practice that this solution will require.

Based on a previous risk calculation study along a road corridor, risk is recalculated using stochastic simulation by introducing variability for most of the parameters in the risk equation. This leads to an exceedance curve comparable to that of catastrophe models. This approach introduces uncertainty into the risk calculation in a simple way, which can be used for poorly documented cases to fulfil lack of data. This approach seems to tend to minimize risk or to question risk calculations.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

Methods to handle uncertainty in economic evaluation have gained much attention in the literature and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) is the most widely used method to summarize and present uncertainty associated with program costs and effects in cost-effectiveness analysis. Some researchers have emphasized the limitations of the CEAC for informing decision and policy makers as the CEAC is insensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects in the North-East and South-West quadrants of the cost-effective plane (CEP). Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the CEAC does not incorporate risk-aversion in valuing uncertain costs and effects. In the present article we show that the cost-effectiveness affordability curve (CEAFC) captures both dimensions of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects on the CEP and is therefore sensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution on the CEP. Furthermore, the CEAFC also informs about the budget impact of a new intervention as it estimates the joint probability an intervention is both affordable and cost-effective. Moreover, we show that the cost-effectiveness risk-aversion curve (CERAC) allows to incorporate risk-aversion into the analysis and can therefore be used to inform decision-makers who are risk-averse. We use data from a published cost-effectiveness model of palbociclib in addition to letrozole versus letrozole alone for the treatment of oestrogen-receptor positive, HER-2 negative, advanced breast cancer to demonstrate the differences between CEAC, CEAFC and CERAC and show how these can jointly be used to inform decision and policy makers.

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of socio-technical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. Furthermore, insights are visualized in a roadmap to coordinate action among the actors involved. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a business model aiming at ensuring stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendation for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.

This paper examines a persuasion game between two agents with one-sided asymmetric information, where the informed agent can reveal her private information prior to playing a Battle-of-the-Sexes coordination game. We find that in the presence of strategic uncertainty in coordination there exists an equilibrium where there is no 'unraveling' of information. We provide a purification argument for this mixed strategy equilibrium to strengthen the central result, which is robust to several extensions, including both-sided asymmetric information and imprecise information revelation.

We define life as the amplification of quantum uncertainty up to macroscopic scales. A living being is any amplifier that achieves this goal. We argue that everything we know about life can be explained from this idea. We study a ladder mechanism to estimate the probability that the amplification occurs spontaneously in nature. The amplification mechanism is so sensitive to small variations of its own parameters that it acts as a bifurcation itself, i.e. it implies that the universe is either everywhere dead or alive wherever possible. Since the first option is excluded by the existence of life on earth, we infer that the universe hosts a huge number of inhabited planets (possibly one per star on average). We also investigate models of conscious and unconscious learning processes, as well as the structure of the brain and evolution. Finally, we address the problem of creating artificial life.

Intending to analyze the role of nuclear power in an integrated energy system, we used the IESA-Opt-N cost minimization model focusing on four key themes: system-wide impacts of nuclear power, uncertain technological costs, flexible generation, and cross-border electricity trade. We demonstrate that the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) alone should not be used to demonstrate the economic feasibility of a power generation technology. For instance, under the default techno-economic assumptions, particularly the 5% discount rate and exogenous electricity trade potentials, it is cost-optimal for the Netherlands to invest in 9.6 GWe nuclear capacity by 2050. However, its LCOE is 34 €/MWh higher than offshore wind. Moreover, we found that nuclear power investments can reduce demand for variable renewable energy sources in the short term and higher energy independence (i.e., lower imports of natural gas, biomass, and electricity) in the long term. Furthermore, investing in nuclear power can reduce the mitigation costs of the Dutch energy system by 1.6% and 6.2% in 2040 and 2050, and 25% lower national CO₂ prices by 2050. However, this cost reduction is not significant given the odds of higher nuclear financing costs and longer construction times. In addition, this study has shown that lower financing costs (e.g., EU taxonomy support) considerably reduce the relevance of nuclear cost uncertainties on its investments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the economic feasibility of national nuclear power investments can vary considerably depending on the cross-border electricity trade assumptions. Additionally, we found that lowering the cost of small modular reactors has more impact on their economic feasibility than increasing their generation flexibility. In conclusion, under the specific assumptions of this study, nuclear power can play a complementary role (in parallel to the wind and solar power) in supporting the Dutch energy transition from the sole techno-economic point of view.

Integrating large-scale wind energy in modern power systems is demanding more efficient mathematical models to properly address classical assumptions in power system problems. In particular, there are two main assumptions in power system problems with wind integration that have not been adequately studied yet; First, non-linear AC power flow equations have been linearized in most of the literature. Such simplifications can lead to inaccurate power flow calculations that may result in other technical issues. Second, wind power uncertainties are inevitable and have been mostly modelled using the traditional uncertainty modelling approaches, that may not be suitable for large-scale wind power integration. In this paper, we address both challenges: we present a tight second-order conic relaxation (SOCR) for optimal power flow (OPF) problem, and simultaneously, implement the new effective budget of uncertainty approach for uncertainty modelling that determines the maximum wind power admissibility first and then addresses the uncertainty in the model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that proposes an effective robust second-order conic programming (ERSOCP) model that simultaneously addresses the issues of power flow linearization and wind power uncertainty with the new paradigm on the budget of uncertainty approach. Our numerical results show the merit of the proposed model against traditional linearized power flow equations as well as traditional uncertainty modelling approaches.

Additive manufacturing (AM) is a promising new technology that is having a very fast growth from home workshops to high-tech cutting-edge factories. As any manufacturing technique, adequate metrology services are needed to assure the quality of items manufactured by AM. One of the most widely used instruments to measure the characteristics of surfaces manufactured with AM is the confocal microscope. In this paper, authors present a whole calibration procedure for confocal microscopes designed to be implemented preferably in workshops or industrial environments rather than in research and development departments. Because of that, it is as simple as possible. The procedure is designed without forgetting any of the key aspects that need to be taken into account and based on classical reference material standards. These standards can be easily found in industrial dimensional laboratories and easily calibrated in accredited calibration laboratories.

Symmetry in biological and physical systems is a product of self-organization driven by evolutionary processes, or mechanical systems under constraints. Symmetry-based feature extraction or representation by neural networks may unravel the most informative contents in large image databases. Despite significant achievements of artificial intelligence in recognition and classification of regular patterns, the problem of uncertainty remains a major challenge in ambiguous data. In this study, we present an artificial neural network that detects symmetry uncertainty states in human observers. To this end, we exploit a neural network metric in the output of a biologically inspired Self-Organizing Map, the Quantization Error (SOM-QE). Shape pairs with perfect geometric mirror symmetry but a non-homogenous appearance, caused by local variations in hue, saturation, or lightness within and/or across the shapes in a given pair produce, as shown here, longer choice RT for ‘yes’ responses relative to symmetry. These data are consistently mirrored by the variations in the SOM-QE from unsupervised neural network analysis of the same stimulus images. The neural network metric is thus capable of detecting and scaling human symmetry uncertainty in response to patterns. Such capacity is tightly linked to the metric’s proven selectivity to local contrast and color variations in large and highly complex image data.

Bluecat is a recently proposed methodology to upgrade a deterministic model (D-model) into stochastic (S-model), based on the hypothesis that the information contained in a time series of observations and the concurrent predictions by the D-model is sufficient to support this upgrade. Prominent characteristics of the methodology are its simplicity and transparency, which allow easy use in practical applications, without sophisticated computational means. Here we utilize the Bluecat methodology and expand it in order to be combined with climatic model outputs, which often require extrapolation out of the range of values covered by observations. We apply the expanded methodology to the precipitation and temperature processes in a large area, namely the entire territory of Italy. The results showcase the appropriateness of the method for hydroclimatic studies, as regards the assessment of the performance of the climatic projections, as well as their stochastic conversion with simultaneous bias correction and uncertainty quantification.

Rapid developments in the field of underwater photogrammetry have given scientists1the ability to produce accurate 3-dimensional (3D) models which are now increasingly used in the representation and study of local areas of interest. This paper addresses the lack of systematic analysis of 3D reconstruction and navigation fusion strategies, as well as associated error evaluation of models produced at larger scales in GPS-denied environments using a monocular camera (often in deep-sea scenarios). Based on our prior work on automatic scale estimation of Structure from Motion (SfM)-based 3D models using laser scalers, an automatic scale accuracy framework is presented. The confidence level for each of the scale error estimates is independently assessed through the propagation of the uncertainties associated with image features and laser spot detections using a Monte Carlo simulation. The number of iterations used in the simulation was validated through the analysis of the final estimate behaviour. To facilitate the detection and uncertainty estimation of even greatly attenuated laser beams, an automatic laser spot detection method, mitigating the effects of scene texture, was developed, with the main novelty of estimating the uncertainties based on the recovered characteristic shapes of laser spots with radially decreasing1 intensities. The effects of four different reconstruction strategies resulting from the combinations of Incremental/GlobalSfM, and thea priori/a posterioriuse of navigation data were analyzed using two distinct survey scenarios captured during the SUBSAINTES 2017 cruise (doi: 10.17600/17001000). The study demonstrates that surveys with multiple overlaps of non-sequential images result in a nearly identical solution regardless of the strategy (SfM or navigation fusion), while surveys with weakly connected sequentially acquired images are prone to produce broad-scale deformation (doming effect) when navigation is not included in the optimization. Thus the scenarios with complex survey patterns substantially benefit from using multi-objective BA navigation fusion. In all cases, the errors in the models are inferior to 5%, with errors often being around 1%. The effects of combining data from multiple surveys were also evaluated. The introduction of additional vectors in the optimization of multi-survey problems successfully accounted for offset changes present in the underwater USBL-based navigation data and thus minimize the effect of contradicting navigation priors. Our results also illustrate the importance of collecting a multitude of evaluation data at different locations and moments during the survey.

The study's motivation is to gauge the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and financial innovation for the period 2004M1 to 2018M12 in BRIC nations. For establishing a long-run cointegration study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and asymmetry effects of economic policy uncertainty investigated following nonlinear framework known as NARDL. Furthermore, directional causality is established by performing a non-granger causality test. Cointegration test results of Fpss, Wpss, and tBDM confirmed the long-run association between EPU and financial innovation. On the other hand, the Wald test results proved asymmetry effects furring from EPU to financial innovation both in the long-run and short-run. Referring to asymmetry effects that positive and negative shocks in financial innovation, the study revealed that negative linkage between shocks in EPU and financial innovation in the long-run but short-run effects are insignificant. Furthermore, financial innovation measured by R&D investment exhibits positive linked with shocks in EPU, implying that uncertainty induces innovation in the economy. Refers to directional causality estimation, the study revealed evidence supporting the feedback hypothesis between EPU and financial innovation in all sample countries.

Among many research areas to which Ron Yager contributed are decision making under uncertainty (in particular, under interval and fuzzy uncertainty) and aggregation – where he proposed, analyzed, and utilized the use of Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The OWA algorithm itself provides only a specific type of data aggregation. However, it turns out that if we allows several OWA stages one after another, we get a scheme with a universal approximation property – moreover, a scheme which is perfectly equivalent to deep neural networks. In this sense, Ron Yager can be viewed as a (grand)father of deep learning. We also show that the existing schemes for decision making under uncertainty are also naturally interpretable in OWA terms.

Market turbulence with fiscal investment influences has altered IT infrastructure performance as business pursue extravagant new technology adoption. Yet, few studies have examined how shareware solution goes beyond Medium Size Enterprise that pushes efficiency and sustainability. This PLS-SEM integrated with dual primary compilation approach lessens shallow perceptions coupled with outlooks that streamline each phenomenal activity that is worthy of the necessity for competitive innovation. This unified model was applied to sampling respondents and analyzed using an ordinal regression relationship that generates a robust association that triggers the hypothesis acceptance. The adopting of BOINC shareware mesh network towards unified processing designs that were employed to build the yield by promising financial possibility using coordinated interworks hence improved group accomplishment and establishing greater esteem. This paper showcases a flexible inner IT infrastructure alongside the economic uncertainty with the framework advancement for Exostructure as a Service. Associated theoretical and practical implications were discussed.

In the field of pavement engineering, the determination of the mechanical characteristics is one of the essential process for reliable material design and highway sustainability. Early determination of mechanical characteristics of pavement is highly essential for road and highway construction and maintenance. Tensile strength (TS), compressive strength (CS) and flexural strength (FS) of roller compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) are very crucial characteristics as they are necessitated for many data from mixture proportions as input variables. In this research, the classification-based regression models named Random Forest (RF), M5rule model tree (M5rule), M5prime model tree (M5p) and Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) are developed for simulation of the mechanical characteristics of RCCP. A comprehensive and reliable dataset comprising 621, 326 and 290 data records for CS, TS and FS experimental cases extracted from several open sources over the literature. The mechanical properties are developed based on influential inputs combination that processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The applied PCA method as feature selection is specified that volumetric/weighted content forms of experimental variables (e.g., coarse aggregate, fine aggregate, supplementary cementitious materials, water and binder) and specimens’ age are the most effective inputs to generate the better performances. Several statistical metrics are measured to evaluate proposed classification-based regression models. RF model revealed an optimistic classification capacity of the CS, TS and FS prediction of the RCCP in comparison with the CHAID, M5rule, and M5p models. The research is extended for the results verification using Monte-carlo model for the uncertainty and sensitivity of variables importance analysis. Overall, the proposed methodology indicated a reliable soft computing model that can be implemented for the material engineering construction and design.

The frame construction of an apartment complex that consists of multiple buildings encounters various uncertainties, owing to the complex relationships among units of work. Currently, the period of such a construction is calculated based on the number of floors of the highest building in the complex. This study quantitatively analyzes an apartment frame construction period using a queue model and evaluates the validity of the estimated period. In this regard, a methodology is proposed for analyzing the construction period by applying the concept of a customer and a server. A case study on the duration of an apartment frame construction is conducted with Korea Land and Housing Corporation, which has supplied the largest number of apartments in South Korea. It was found that the stable state of a queue system was observed when the rate of server utilization was applied to the basement and aboveground floors. However, a stable state was not reached on the ground floor. This study includes non-working days in its calculation and quantitatively analyzes uncertainty factors during construction. Therefore, the findings can be practically utilized to quantitatively plan the durations of work units in an apartment frame construction.

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of socio-technical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. Furthermore, insights are visualized in a roadmap to coordinate action among the actors involved. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a business model aiming at ensuring stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendation for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

Groundwater models serve as support tools to among others: assess water resources, evaluate management strategies, design remediation systems and optimize monitoring networks. Thus, the assimilation of information from observations into models is crucial to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty of their results. As more information is collected routinely due to the use of automatic sensors, data loggers and real time transmission systems; groundwater modelers are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of using sophisticated tools to perform model calibration in combination with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Despite their usefulness, available approaches to perform this kind of analyses still present some challenges such as non-unique solution for the parameter estimation problem, high computational burden and a need of a deep understanding of the theoretical basis for the correct interpretation and use of their results, in particular the ones related to uncertainty analysis. We present a brief derivation of the main equations that serve as basis for this kind of analysis. We demonstrate how to use them to estimate parameters, assess the sensitivity and quantify the uncertainty of the model results using an example inspired by a real world setting. We analyze some of the main pitfalls that can occur when performing such kind of analyses and comment on practical approaches to overcome them. We also demonstrate that including groundwater flow estimations, although helpful in constraining the solution of the inverse problem as shown previously, may be difficult to apply in practice and, in some cases, may not provide enough information to significantly constrain the set of potential solutions.

We study the connection between the phase and the amplitude of the wave function and the conditions under which this relationship exists. For this we use model of particle in a box. We have shown that the amplitude can be calculated from the phase and vice versa if the log Analytical uncertainty relations are satisfied.

One of the most common forms of dementia is Alzheimer’s disease (AD), which leads to progressive mental deterioration. Unfortunately, there is no definitive diagnosis and cure that can stop the condition progressing. The diagnosis is often performed based on the clinical history and neuropsychological data, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Deep neural networks (DNN) algorithms are gaining popularity for medical diagnosis, and have been used widely for the analysis of MRI data. DNNs can extract hidden features from thousands of training images automatically. However, they cannot judge how confident they are about their predictions. To use DNNs in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis, uncertainty quantification of DNNs predictions is crucial. For this purpose, Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) has been widely used, however, it may lead to overconfident and miss calibrated results. This paper proposes a framework in which the MCD algorithm’s hyper-parameters are optimized during training using Bayesian optimization for the first time. The conducted optimization leads to assigning high predictive entropy to erroneous predictions and making it possible to recognize risky predictions. The proposed framework is used for AD diagnosis, which has not been done before. We compare our method with some existing methods in the literature based on different uncertainty quantification criteria. The results of comprehensive experiments on the Kaggle dataset using a deep model pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset show that the proposed algorithm can quantify uncertainty much better than the existing methods.

Problem. Image biomarker analysis, also known as radiomics, is a tool for tissue characterization and treatment prognosis that relies on routinely acquired clinical images and delineations. Due to the uncertainty in image acquisition, processing, and segmentation (delineation) protocols, radiomics often lacks reproducibility. Radiomics harmonization techniques have been proposed as a solution to reduce these sources of uncertainty and/or their influence on the prognostic model performance. A relevant question is how to estimate the protocol-induced uncertainty of a specific image biomarker, what the effect is on the model performance, and how to optimize the model given the uncertainty. In this manuscript, we show how protocol uncertainty can drastically reduce prognostic model performance. We introduce an effect-size measure η that assesses the protocol-induced uncertainty versus the measurable effect. Methods. Two non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohorts, composed of 421 and 240 patients respectively, were used for training and testing. Per patient, a Monte Carlo algorithm was used to generate three hundred synthetic contours with a surface dice tolerance measure less than 1.18 mm with respect to the original GTV. These contours were subsequently used to derive 104 radiomic features, which were ranked on their relative sensitivity to contour perturbation, expressed in the parameter η. The top four (low η) and the bottom four (high η) features were selected for two models based on Cox proportional hazards model. To investigate the influence of segmentation uncertainty on the prognostic model, we trained and tested the setup in 5000 augmented realizations (using a Monte Carlo sampling method); the log-rank test was used to assess the stratification performance and stability to segmentation uncertainty. Results. Although both low and high η setup showed significant testing set log-rank p-values (p=0.01) in the original GTV delineations (without segmentation uncertainty introduced), in the model with high uncertainty to effect ratio only around 30% of the augmented realizations resulted in model performance with p < 0.05 in the test set. In contrast, the low η setup performed with log-rank p < 0.05 in 90% of the augmented realizations. Moreover, the high η setup classification was uncertain for 50% of the subjects in the testing set (for 80% agreement rate), whereas the low η setup was uncertain only in 10% of the cases. The code and part of the data are available at https://github.com/Maastro-CDS-Imaging-Group/sure. Discussion. Estimating image biomarker model performance based only on the original GTV segmentation without considering segmentation uncertainty may be deceiving. The model might result in a significant stratification performance, but can be unstable for delineation variations, which are inherent to manual segmentation. Simulating segmentation uncertainty using the method described allows for more stable image biomarker estimation, selection, and model development. The segmentation uncertainty estimation method described here is universal and can be extended to estimate other protocol uncertainties (such as image acquisition and pre-processing).

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Validation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) products is typically based on comparisons with in-situ measurements at a few meters depth, that are mostly done at a single location and time. The difference in term of spatio-temporal resolution between the in-situ near-surface salinity and the two-dimensional satellite SSS results in a sampling mismatch uncertainty. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project has merged SSS from three satellite missions. Using an optimal interpolation, weekly and monthly SSS and their uncertainties are estimated at a 50 km spatial resolution over the global ocean. Over the 2016-2018 period the mean uncertainty on weekly CCI SSS is 0.13, whereas the standard deviation of weekly CCI minus in-situ Argo salinities is 0.24. Using high resolution SSS simulations, we estimate the expected uncertainty due to the CCI versus Argo sampling mismatch. Most of the largest spatial variability of the satellite minus Argo salinity are observed in regions with large mismatch. A quantitative validation is performed by considering the statistical distribution of the CCI minus Argo salinity normalized by the sampling and retrieval uncertainties. This quantity should follow a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation of 1, if all uncertainty contributions are properly considered. We find that 1) the sampling mismatch can explain most of the observed differences between Argo and CCI data, especially for monthly products and in dynamical regions (river plumes, fronts), 2) overall, the uncertainties are well estimated in CCI version 3, much better compared to CCI version 2. There are a few dynamical regions where discrepancies remain, and where the satellite SSS, their associated uncertainties and the sampling mismatch estimates should be further validated.

This paper presents the experimental implementations of the mathematical models and algorithms developed in Part I. Two experiments are carried out. The first experiment aims at the determinations of the correction coefficients of the mathematical model. The dot grid target is measured and the measurement data are processed by our developed and validated algorithms introduced in Part I. The values of the coefficients are indicated and analysed. Uncertainties are evaluated with implementation of the Monte Carlo method. The second experiment measures a different area of the dot grid target. The measurement results are corrected according to the coefficients determined in the first experiment. The mean residual between the measured points and their corresponding certified values reduced 29.6% after the correction. The sum of squared errors reduced 47.7%. The methods and the algorithms for raw data processing, such as data partition, fittings of dots’ centres, K-means clustering, etc., are the same for both two experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that our method for the correction of the errors produced by the movement of lateral stage of confocal microscope is meaningful and practicable.

InSAR and associated analytic methods enable relative surface deformation measurements from low Earth orbit with a potential accuracy of centimeters to millimeters. However, assessing the actual accuracy can be quite difficult. The analytic methods are complicated enough that naive analytic error propagation is infeasible, and, in many settings, InSAR practitioners lack sufficient ground truth to assess results. Phase noise due to partial decorrelation from changes in the scattering properties of the ground is a prominent source of accuracy loss. In this paper we present a method to assess the loss of precision due to this component of phase noise. The proposed method consists of generating synthetic data stacks whose statistical properties match those of the actual input SAR data stacks, and then using the synthetic data for an ensemble calculation. The spread of the results of the ensemble calculation indicates the loss of precision. We show examples of the ensemble analysis at a mining operation in South Africa, and demonstrate the ability to estimate the precision of two InSAR deformation retrieval methods on a point-by-point and epoch-by-epoch basis.

In this study, the dependence between Bitcoin (BTC) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of USA and China is estimated by applying latest methodology of quantile cross-spectral dependence. The findings indicate a positive return interdependence between BTC and EPU is high in short-term, and this dependence decreases as investment horizons increase from weekly to yearly. The information on above interdependence is also extracted by applying wavelet coherence analysis and the estimation results suggest that correlation between BTC and EPU is positive during short-term investment horizon. Furthermore, more diversification benefits of BTC can be obtained during USA-EPU as compared to China-EPU.

Intelligence is a human construct to represent the ability to achieve goals. Given this wide berth, intelligence has been defined countless times, studied in a variety of ways and represented using numerous measures. Understanding intelligence ultimately requires theory and quantification, both of which have proved elusive. I develop a framework – the Theory of Intelligences (TIS) – that applies across all systems from physics, to biology, humans and AI. TIS likens intelligence to a calculus, differentiating, correlating and integrating information. Intelligence operates at many levels and scales and TIS distils these into a parsimonious macroscopic framework centered on solving, planning and their optimization to accomplish goals. Notably, intelligence can be expressed in informational units or in units relative to goal difficulty, the latter defined as complexity relative to system (individual or benchmarked) ability. I present general equations for intelligence and its components, and a simple expression for the evolution of intelligence traits. The measures developed here could serve to gauge different facets of intelligence for any step-wise transformation of information. I argue that proxies such as environment, technology, society and collectives are essential to a general theory of intelligence and to possible evolutionary transitions in intelligence, particularly in humans. I conclude with testable predictions of TIS and offer several speculations.

The design flood concept (DF) provides for an essential tool in designing the hydraulic works, in defining the reservoir operation programs and for a reliable flood hazard identification. Under a simplified approach, the maximum discharge and the floods volume are statistically processed to reasonably define the DF. Yet, the integral hydrograph provides additional key temporal and quantitative details of important significance for flood management and particularly for the res-ervoirs operation and associated risks of failures. The procedure presented in this paper (as applied on a set of compatibly shaped hydrographs) involves the following key stages: (i) normalize the floods, (ii) define similar flood shape classes and (iii) evaluate the average dimensionless flood (ADF) for each class. The ADFs are finally transformed into a set of (DF)s. Many statistical distributions approximate acceptably the frequent values of the maximum discharges or the flood volumes, yet displaying a significant spread for medium or rare probabilities of exceedance (PE). This scattering, which can be explained by the epistemic uncertainty, defines an area of uncertainty both for measured and extrapolated values. In considering upper and lower values of the uncertainty in-tervals as limits for maximum discharges and flood volumes, then by combining them compatibly, a set of DFs - as completely defined hydrographs, with different shapes - results for each PE. The herein proposed procedure defines both one peak DF and multi-peaks DF. Subsequently, such DFs do assist water managers in examining and establishing tailored approaches for a variety of input hydrographs. Among the DFs that would correspond to a same PE, the most compact floods arise a special interest, for they are basic in defining the set of safe operation rules for hydraulic structures.

Measurement uncertainty is typically expressed in terms of a symmetric interval , where denotes the measurement result and the expanded uncertainty. However, in the case of heteroscedasticity, symmetric uncertainty intervals can be misleading. In this paper, a different approach for the calculation of uncertainty intervals is introduced. This approach is applicable when a validation study has been conducted with samples with known concentrations. It will be shown how, under certain circumstances, asymmetric uncertainty intervals arise quite naturally and lead to more reliable uncertainty intervals.

Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flow using only pre-disaster information has proven to be difficult as a result of problems in predicting the location of debris-flow initiation (i.e., slope failure). However, because catchment topography has concave characteristics, with all channels in a catchment joining each other as they flow downstream, it is possible to predict damage to downstream area using relatively inaccurate initiation points. Based on this, this paper presents methodologies employing debris-flow initiation points generated randomly using statistical slope failure prediction. A many-case simulation across numerous initiation points was performed to quantify the effect of slope-failure location in terms of deviations in the predicted water level and terrain deformation. It was found that the relative standard deviation diminished as the points approached the downstream area, indicating a location-based predictability effect.

The notion of potential-growth indicator came to being in the field of matrix population models long ago, almost simultaneously with the pioneering Leslie model for age-structured population dynamics, albeit the term has been given and the theory developed only recent years. The indicator represents an explicit function, R(L), of matrix L elements and indicates the position of the spectral radius of L relative to 1 on the real axis, thus signifying the population growth, or decline, or stabilization. Some indicators turned out useful in theoretical layouts and practical applications prior to calculating the spectral radius itself. The most senior (1994) and popular indicator, R0(L), is known as the net reproductive rate, and we consider two more ones, R1(L) and RRT(A), developed later on. All the three are different in what concerns their simplicity and the level of generality, and we illustrate them with a case study of Calamagrostis epigeios, a long-rhizome perennial weed actively colonizing open spaces in the temperate zone. While the R0(L) and R1(L) fail respectively because of complexity and insufficient generality, the RRT(L) does succeed, justifying the merit of indication.

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.

Public trust in science was tested and relied on during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which has shaped global events since the WHO declaration in March 11, 2020. Public trust has been impacted through the government recommendations and mandates informed by public health guidance, including non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions. The free-flow of ideas and in-formation so essential to the functioning of science has faced unprecedented challenge from widespread censorship in both the media and in scientific journals. This has created a poisoned environment for the building of trust between science and society. Scientific norms and ac-countability must be restored in order to rebuild the vital relationship between scientists and the public they serve.

The entropy models have been recently adopted in many studies to evaluate the distribution of the shear stress in circular channels. However, the uncertainty in their predictions and their reliability remains an open question. We present a novel method to evaluate the uncertainty of four popular entropy models, including Shannon, Shannon-Power Low (PL), Tsallis, and Renyi, in shear stress estimation in circular channels. The Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) uncertainty method is simplified considering a 95% Confidence Bound (CB). We developed a new statistic index called as FREE_opt-based OCB (FOCB) using the statistical indices Forecasting Range of Error Estimation (FREE) and the percentage of observed data in the CB (N_in), which integrates their combined effect. The Shannon and Shannon PL entropies had close values of the FOCB equal to 8.781 and 9.808, respectively, had the highest certainty in the calculation of shear stress values in circular channels followed by traditional uniform flow shear stress and Tsallis models with close values of 14.491 and 14.895, respectively. However, Renyi entropy with much higher values of FOCB equal to 57.726 has less certainty in the estimation of shear stress than other models. Using the presented results in this study, the amount of confidence in entropy methods in the calculation of shear stress to design and implement different types of open channels and their stability is determined.

The adaptive identification method developed to evaluate the parameters of the Bouc-Wen hysteresis (BWH). The adaptive approach based on the use of adaptive observers. We synthesize adaptive identification algorithms using the second Lyapunov method. The boundedness of adaptive system processes shown in coordinate and parametric spaces. We prove exponential dissipativity of processes in an adaptive system. Estimating method proposed for signaling uncertainty in the system.

The spatial resolution measurement limitation of the position-momentum uncertainty principle is shown to mathematically originate from the Bekenstein entropy bound and the associated second law of thermodynamics, as a special case in which a statistical thermodynamic distribution of energies is specialized to a fixed, definite probe energy equal to the average energy of that distribution. This is used in combination with the Wein displacement law to predict an ultraviolet cutoff for Planck blackbody radiation at about ⅛ of the Wein peak. A new UV photon counting experiment is proposed to test for this. A physical understanding of these results may be provided by a UV-complete, intelligible theory of general relativistic quantum mechanics in which the observation of a blackbody spectrum is simply a remote observation of Hawking radiation emitted from black hole fluctuations in the gravitational vacuum.

This paper focuses on quantifying the uncertainty in the specific absorption rate values of brain induced by the uncertain positions of the electroencephalography electrodes placed on patient's scalp. To avoid running a large number of simulations, an artificial neural network architecture for uncertainty quantification involving high-dimensional data is proposed in this paper. The proposed method is demonstrated to be an attractive alternative to conventional uncertainty quantification methods because of its considerable advantage in the computational expense and speed.

A Robust Optimization framework with original concepts and fundamentals also admitting a fusion of ideals from relative regret models and static robust optimization, containing conservatism concepts is disclosed. The algorithm uses a fine-tune strategy to tune the model so the robustness and a target ideality can be mutually achieved with a specified risk. The framework comprises original concepts, a mathematical approach and an algorithm. The statistical treatment of the data with the original concepts from the framework make it able to make short, middle or long-term decision-making setting. The framework has high tractability since the algorithm forces the creation of a setting that makes a robust optimization with the specified risk. The framework can be applied in linear and nonlinear mathematical models since that the objective function is monotonic in the domain of the active convex region. Several examples are solved to best understand the framework and all results demonstrated high tractability and performance. There is a wide range of applications. Along all the text, there is a profound discussion about its philosophy, objective, original concepts, fields of application, statistical and probabilistic fundamentals.

This note is a part of my efforts for getting rid of nonlocality from quantum mechanics (QM). Quantum nonlocality is two faced Janus, one face is apparent quantum mechanical nonlocality (assigned with projection postulate), another face is nonlocality of Bell's model with the hidden variables. This paper is directed against the latter. The main casualty of Bell's model is that it contradicts to the Heinsenberg's uncertainty and Bohr's complementarity principles. The aim of this note is to point to the physical seed of the aforementioned principles. This is the {\it quantum postulate}: the existence of indivisible quantum of action given by the Planck constant. Bell's model by contradicting to the basic principles of QM implies rejection of this postulate. Thus, it contradicts not only to the QM-formalism, but also to the fundamental feature of the quantum world that was initially discovered by Planck.

We derive a quantum speed limit for unitary evolution for the case of mixed quantum states using the stronger uncertainty relation for mixed quantum states. This bound can be optimized over different choices of Hermitian operators for a better bound. We illustrate this with some examples and show its better performance with respect to three existing bounds for mixed quantum states.

Uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are numerically studied. We first give a review for the formulation of the generalized uncertainty relations in the stochastic variational method (SVM), following the work by two of the present authors [Phys.\ Lett.\ A\textbf{382}, 1472 (2018)]. In this approach, the origin of the finite minimum value of uncertainty is attributed to the non-differentiable (virtual) trajectory of a quantum particle and then both of the Kennard and Robertson-Schr\"{o}dinger inequalities in quantum mechanics are reproduced. The same non-differentiable trajectory is applied to the motion of fluid elements in the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation or the Navier-Stokes-Korteweg equation. By introducing the standard deviations of position and momentum for fluid elements, the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are derived. These are applicable even to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and then the field-theoretical uncertainty relation is reproduced. We further investigate numerically the derived relations and find that the behaviors of the uncertainty relations for liquid and gas are qualitatively different. This suggests that the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are used as a criterion to classify liquid and gas in fluid.

The article contains the results of experimental studies for a multi-opening orifice with substitute constriction factor of β = 0.5 (m = 0.25), mounted in a DN50 hydraulic measuring flume. Flow measurements were taken for a progressing turbulent flow within Reynolds numbers (Re = 4700...19500). Based on experimental data, flow characteristics as well as discharge coefficient C characteristics were determined. Relative expanded uncertainty of determining a discharge coefficient C was estimated within the changes of volume flow qv from 0.35 dm3/s to 0.68 dm3/s. The value does not exceed 1.25% within the changes of Reynolds numbers 9800 ≤ Re ≤ 19500.

We review our theory of interdependence applied to autonomous human-machine teams, with which we have made several generalizations based on theory that have led to new discoveries, compared to social science which is struggling to break free of its validation crisis, but also has no generalizations to new discoveries with human teams, let alone to human-machine teams. In this invited article, based around the stability of a team, of our discoveries, we review the uncertainty between a team's structure and its performance, our first finding. We generalize that finding to deception, vulnerability, innovation and fittedness. From there, our next generalization is to the quantum likeness of interdependence and quantum mechanics; we move on to Shannon holes, knowledge, and conclude with the value of debate and the need for boundaries to contain debate, to reduce interference, and to protect states of interdependence. After the introduction, we extend our model in Section 2 to energy and time, and we close with a brief review of innovation and future plans.

Most quantum gravity theories endow space-time with a discreet nature by space quantization on the order of Planck length (lp ). This discreetness could be demonstrated by confirmation of Lorentz invariance violations (LIV) manifested at length scales proportional to lp. In this paper, space-time line elements compatible with the uncertainty principle are calculated for a homogeneous, isotropic expanding Universe represented by the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker solution to General Relativity (FLRW or FRW metric). To achieve this, the covariant geometric uncertainty principle (GeUP) is applied as a constraint over geodesics in FRW geometries. A generic expression for the quadratic proper space-time line element is derived, proportional to Planck length-squared and dependent on two contributions. The first is associated to the energy-time uncertainty, and the second depends on the Hubble function. The results are in agreement with space-time quantization on the expected length orders, according to quantum gravity theories and experimental constraints on LIV.

In this paper, we consider a make-to-order supply chain which satisfies demand that is dependent on both price and quoted lead -time. The manufacturer chooses the lead -time and the order quantity, and the retailer sets the revenue shares. The interactions between the manufacturer and the retailer are modelled as a Nash Game, and the existence and uniqueness of pure strategy equilibrium are demonstrated. A mechanism that enables the supply chain to coordinate the decisions of the members is developed. Lastly, we also analyze how the supply chain system parameters impact the optimal supply chain decisions and the supply chain performance.

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for ecological models and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative ecological response models. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate-ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.