ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201907.0185.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: summer-mean Arctic circulation patterns; extra-tropical synoptic cyclones; self-organizing maps (SOMs); cyclone detection and tracking
Online: 15 July 2019 (15:24:28 CEST)
The contribution of extra-tropical synoptic cyclones to the formation of summer-mean atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arctic is investigated by clustering the dominant Arctic circulation patterns by the self-organizing maps (SOMs) using the daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the Arctic domain (≥ 60°N). Three SOM patterns are identified: one with prevalent low pressure anomalies in the Arctic Circle (SOM1) and two opposite dipoles with primary high pressure anomalies covering the Arctic Ocean (SOM2 and SOM3). The time series of summertime occurrence frequencies demonstrate the largest inter-annual variation in the SOM1, the slight decreasing trend in the SOM2, and the abrupt upswing after 2007 in the SOM3. The relevant analyses with produced cyclone track data confirm that the vital contribution. The Arctic cyclone activity is enhanced in the SOM1 because the meridional temperature gradient increases over the land–Arctic Ocean boundaries co-located with major extra-tropical cyclone pathways. The composite daily synoptic evolutions for each SOM reveal that the persistence of all the three SOMs is less than 5 days on average. These evolutionary short-term weather patterns have substantial variability at inter-annual and longer timescales. Therefore, the synoptic-scale activity is central to forming the seasonal-mean climate of the Arctic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0517.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: synoptic maps; thunderstorm; downburst; WRF Model; Bandar Dayyer.
Online: 27 August 2021 (11:23:59 CEST)
Severe thunderstorms are often accompanied by strong vertical air currents, temporary wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. The development of this atmospheric phenomenon over tropical shallow water zones, such as bays, can lead to intensification of atmospheric disturbances and produce a small-scale storm surge. Here, the storm surge that occurred on 19 March 2017 in the Persian Gulf coastal area has been investigated. Air temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, wave height, wind direction, wind speed, geopotential height, zonal components, meridional winds, vertical velocity, relative humidity, and specific humidity obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (and Global Forecast System (FNL) were used to implement the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that the main cause of the storm surge was the occurrence of a supercell thunderstorm over the Persian Gulf. The formation of this destructive phenomenon resulted from a downburst under Cumulonimbus cloud and high-velocity air subsidence, after collision with the sea surface coinciding with the high tide. This caused a severe, yet temporary, gust, which in turn caused the creation of the four waves of 3.1 m height along the coast of Bandar Dayyer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0148.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Blizzards; blowing snow; climatology; self-organizing maps; synoptic typing
Online: 14 March 2019 (07:03:28 CET)
Stretching along the border of North Dakota and Minnesota, The Red River Valley (RRV) of the North has the highest frequency of reported blizzards within the contiguous United States. Despite the numerous impacts these events have, few systematic studies exist discussing the meteorological properties of blizzards. As a result, forecasting these events and lesser blowing snow events is an ongoing forecast challenge. This study presents a climatology of atmospheric patterns associated with RRV blizzards for the winter seasons of 1979-1980 to 2017-2018. Patterns were identified using subjective and objective techniques using meteorological fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The RRV experiences on average, 2.6 events per year. Blizzard frequency is bimodal with peaks occurring in December and March. The events can largely be typed into four meteorological categories dependent on the forcing that drives the blizzard: Alberta Clippers, Arctic Fronts, Colorado Lows, and Hybrids. Objective classification of these blizzards using a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) demonstrates that gross segregation of the events can be achieved with a small (8-class) map. This implies that objective analysis techniques can be used to identify these events in weather and climate model output that may aid future forecasting and risk assessment projects.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0404.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: self-organizing maps; weather patterns; synoptic circulation; multi-model ensemble; wind power
Online: 20 September 2018 (08:17:46 CEST)
This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.