ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0500.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: East Asian summer monsoon, Seasonal prediction, dynamic prediction, summer rainfall prediction, NESM3.0, ENSO teleconnection
Online: 29 August 2018 (13:42:45 CEST)
It has been an outstanding challenge for global climate models to simulate and predict East Asia (EA) summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall. This study evaluates the dynamical hindcast skills with the newly developed Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3.0 (NESM3.0). To improve the poor prediction of an earlier version of NESM3.0, we have modified convective parameterization schemes to suppress excessive deep convection and enhance insufficient shallow and stratiform clouds. The new version of NESM3.0 with modified parameterizations (MOD hereafter) yields significantly improved rainfall prediction in the northern and southern China but not over the Yangtze River Valley. The improved prediction is primarily attributed to the improvements in the predicted climatological summer mean rainfall and circulations, seasonal march of the subtropical rain belt, Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, and the rainfall anomalies associated with the development and decay of El Nino events. However, the MOD still has notable biases in the predicted leading mode of interannual variability of precipitation. The leading mode captures the dry (wet) anomalies over the South China Sea (northern EA) but misplaced precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River Valley. The model can capture the interannual variation of the circulation indices very well, but the bias in the circulation-rainfall connection caused predicted rainfall errors. The results here suggest that over EA land regions, the skillful rainfall prediction relies on not only model’s capability in predicting better summer mean and seasonal march of rainfall and ENSO teleconnection with EASM, but also accurate prediction of the leading modes of interannual variability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0009.v1
Online: 1 April 2019 (10:28:40 CEST)
Mapping drought from space using, e.g., surface soil moisture (SSM), has become viable in the last decade. However, state of the art SSM retrieval products suffer from very poor coverage over northern latitudes. In this study, we propose an innovative drought indicator with a wider spatial and temporal coverage than that obtained from satellite SSM retrievals. We evaluate passive microwave brightness temperature observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite as a surrogate drought metric, and introduce a Standardized Brightness Temperature Index (STBI). The STBI is validated against drought indices from a land surface data assimilation system (LDAS-Monde), two satellite dervied SSM indices and a standardized precipitation index. Finally, we evaluate the STBI against the before mentioned drought indices in a case study of the 2018 Nordic drought. The STBI is found to be superior to the drought index created from satellite derived SSM in both spatial and temporal coverage over the Nordic region. Our results indicate that when compared to drought indices from precipitation data and a land data assimilation system, the STBI is able to capture the 2018 drought onset, severity and extent. Thus, the STBI index could provide additional information for drought monitoring in regions where the SSM retrieval problem is difficult.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0647.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: RegCM, Indian Summer Monsoon, Cumulus Convection Schemes
Online: 26 May 2021 (15:04:46 CEST)
In this study, we explored the performance of the cumulus convection parameterization schemes of Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM) towards the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) of a catastrophic year through various numerical experiments conducted with different convection schemes (Kuo, Grell amd MIT) in RegCM. The model is integrated at 60KM horizontal resolution over Indian region and forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The simulated temperature at 2m and the wind at 10m are validated against the forced data and the total precipitation is compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) observations. We find that the simulation with MIT convection scheme is close to the GPCC data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Our results with three convection schemes suggest that the RegCM with MIT convection scheme successfully simulated some characteristics of ISM of a catastrophic year and may be further examined with more number of convection schemes to customize which convection scheme is much better.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0327.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: chlorophyll fluorescence; remote sensing; ecosystems; spring-summer; forest
Online: 14 August 2020 (12:11:37 CEST)
The European heatwave of 2018 led to record-breaking temperatures and extremely dry conditions in many parts of the continent resulting in widespread decrease in agricultural yield, early tree-leaf senescence, and increase in forest fires in Northern Europe. Our study aims to capture the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on terrestrial ecosystem through the lens of a high-resolution solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) data acquired from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite. SIF is proposed to be a direct proxy for gross primary productivity (GPP) and thus can be used to draw inferences about changes in photosynthetic activity in vegetation due to extreme events. We explore spatial and temporal SIF variation and anomaly during spring and summer months across different vegetation types (agriculture, broadleaved forest, coniferous forest, and mixed forest) during the European heatwave of 2018 and compare it to non-drought conditions (most of Southern Europe). About one-third of Europe’s land area experienced a consecutive spring and summer drought in 2018. Comparing 2018 to mean (2015-2017) conditions, we found a change in intra-spring season SIF dynamics for all vegetation types, with lower SIF during the start of spring followed by an increase in fluorescence from mid-April. Summer, however, showed a significant decrease in SIF. Our results show that particularly agricultural areas were severely affected by the hotter drought of 2018. Furthermore, the intense heat wave in Central Europe showed about 31% decrease in SIF values during July and August as compared to the mean over three previous years. Furthermore, our MODIS and OCO-2 comparative results indicate that especially for forests, OCO-2 SIF has a quicker response and possible higher sensitivity to drought in comparison to MODIS’s fPAR and NDVI when considering shorter reference periods, which highlights the added value of remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence for studying the impact of drought on vegetation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0207.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: appraisal; urban trees; public opinion; photography; summer-winter
Online: 22 January 2018 (18:47:11 CET)
Urban trees are generally considered to be a public asset and are an important part of a city's heritage. The aim of this work is to analyse the influence of season on the economic appraisal of various trees in Madrid. Photographs were taken of 43 individual tree specimens in summer and winter. The survey was designed to compare differences of opinion in the economic assessment of trees. The trees were assessed by five valuation methods used worldwide. 78 agroforestry engineering students answered a written survey, and the variables considered were: percentage of students who always evaluated the tree equally (%0), percentage of students who assigned more value to the summer photograph (%S), and percentage of students who assigned more value to the winter photograph (%W). The results were analysed by the statistical test of equal proportions and ANOVA to detect differences according to tree type (evergreen or deciduous), species and other groupings made by the authors in previous works. W and S percentages are similar. The ANOVA analysis rejects the equality of percentages of S and W between groups. The Welch test rejects the equality of percentage of S, W and O between species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201610.0116.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: solar cyclic variability; Canonical and Modoki ENSO; Indian summer monsoon
Online: 26 September 2017 (04:13:47 CEST)
A flow chart is presented depicting coupling in ocean-atmosphere system, initiated by solar decadal variability that involves El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Possible mechanisms for Canonic ENSO, Modoki ENSO and Canonic-Modoki ENSO are proposed considering their relevance to the decadal variation of Hadley, Walker circulation and mid-latitude jets. It also discusses subsequent teleconnections by ENSO on Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with a special emphasis on later two decades of the last century. Possible mechanisms relating to a disruption of the usual ENSO-ISM teleconnection for those decades are emphasised; the role of volcanos and the change in the sun- NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) connection were attended. The regional Hadley circulation, via the NAO in the northern hemisphere and Indian Ocean Dipole in the southern hemisphere, during that period, may have a role in the change in ISM behaviour- which though captured in observation but missed by models. The representation of flow chart helps to improve understanding of various types of ENSO in both temporal as well as spatial scale. The overall study subsequently can benefit the modelling community by not only improved the representation of ENSO in models but also better representation of ISM teleconnection via regional Hadley cell.
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Covid-19 in Italy; summer mitigation; autumn sharp worsening of epidemics
Online: 3 November 2020 (11:57:06 CET)
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic was particularly invasive in Italy during the period between March and late April 2020 then decreased in both in the number of infections and in the seriousness of the illness throughout the summer of 2020. In this discussion, we measure the severity of the disease by the ratio of Intensive Care Units (ICU) spaces occupied by COVID-19 patients and the number of Active Cases (AC) each month from April to October 2020. We also use the ratio of the number of Deaths (D) to the number of Active Cases. What clearly emerges, from rigorous statistical analysis, is a progressive decrease in both ratios until August, indicating progressive mitigation of the disease. This is particularly evident when comparing March-April with July-August; during the summer period the two ratios became roughly 18 times lower. We test such sharp decreases against possible bias in counting active cases and we confirm their statistical significance. We then interpret such evidence in terms of the well-known seasonality of the human immune system and the virus-inactivating effect of stronger UV rays in the summer. Both ratios, however, increased again in October as ICU/AC began to increase in September 2020. These ratios and the exponential growth of infections in October indicate that the virus - if not contained by strict measures - will lead to unsustainable challenges for the Italian health system in the winter of 2020-2021 .
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0111.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Studies Keywords: education; University of the District of Columbia; engineering education; summer program
Online: 13 June 2019 (07:28:00 CEST)
Preparing high school students for engineering disciplines is crucial for sustainable scientific and technological developments in the USA. This paper discusses a pre-college program, which not only exposes students to various engineering disciplines but also enables them to consider engineering as the profession. The four-week long “Engineering Innovation (EI)” course is offered every year to high school students by the center of outreach, Johns Hopkins University. EI program is designed to develop problem-solving skills through extensive hands-on engineering experiments. A team consisting of an instructor, generally a PhD in Engineering, and a teaching fellow, generally a high school science teacher, closely work with students to pedagogically inculcate basics of core engineering disciplines such as civil, mechanical, electrical, materials, and chemical engineering. EI values independent problem-solving skills and simultaneously promote the team spirit among students. A number of crucial engineering aspects such as professional ethics, communications, technical writing, and understanding of common engineering principles are inculcated among high school students via well-designed individual and group activities. This paper discusses the model of EI program and its impact on students learning and their preparation for the engineering career.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0362.v2
Subject: Biology, Agricultural Sciences & Agronomy Keywords: VarroMed®; Varroa destructor; winter treatment; summer-autumn treatment; queen caging; brood interruption
Online: 30 August 2021 (12:52:30 CEST)
VarroMed® is a soft acaricide registered for honey bees on the European Union market since 2017 for Varroa control. Researchers involved were partners of different countries of the Varroa control task force of COLOSS Association. Our goal was to evaluate performances (acaricide efficacy and toxic effects on honey bees) of VarroMed® in different climatic conditions. Our results in the tested apiaries showed an efficacy ranging from 71.2 to 89.3 % in summer/autumn, and from 71.8 % to 95.6 % in winter. No toxic effects on bees were observed, except in one apiary, where severe cold climatic conditions played a crucial role. The treatment could be efficiently applied in brood right as well as in broodless colonies. Integrated pest management (IPM) recommendations for bee-keepers are provided in order to apply the best Varroa control protocol.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0243.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: wildfires; summer 2019-2010; WRF-Chem; pollutant transport; air quality effect; health impact
Online: 9 March 2021 (09:03:10 CET)
The 2019-2020 summer wildfire event on the east coast of Australia was a series of major wildfires occurring from November 2019 to end of January 2020 across the states of Queensland, New South Wales (NSW), Victoria and South Australia. The wildfires were unprecedent in scope and the extensive extend of the wildfires has caused smoke pollutants transported not only to New Zealand but across the Pacific Ocean to South America. At the height of the wildfires, smoke plumes were injected into the stratosphere at height up to 25km and hence transported across the globe. Based on meteorological and air quality simulation using WRF-Chem model, air quality monitoring data collected during the bushfire period and remote sensing data from MODIS and CALIPSO satellites, the extend of the wildfires and the pollutant transport, and their impacts on air quality and health on exposed population in NSW can be analysed. The results showed that WRF-Chem model using Fire Emission Inventory from NCAR (FINN) predicts the dispersion and transport of pollutants and the predicted concentration of PM2.5 and other pollutants from wildfires reasonably well when compared with ground-based and satellite data. The impact on health endpoints such as mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases hospitalisation across the modelling domain is then estimated. The estimated health impact is comparable with previous study based only on observation data, but the results in this study provide much more detailed spatially and temporally with regards to the health impact from the 2019-2020 wildfire.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0093.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: land surface modelling; data assimilation; leaf area index; surface soil moisture; summer 2018
Online: 10 January 2019 (06:49:01 CET)
This study aims to assess the potential of the LDAS-Monde a land data assimilation system developed by Météo-France to monitor the impact of the 2018 summer heatwave over western Europe vegetation state. The LDAS-Monde is forced by the ECMWF’s (i) ERA5 reanalysis, and (ii) the Integrated Forecasting System High Resolution operational analysis (IFS-HRES), used in conjunction with the assimilation of Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) satellite derived products, namely the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). Analysis of long time series of satellite derived CGLS LAI (2000-2018) and SSM (2008-2018) highlights marked negative anomalies for July 2018 affecting large areas of North Western Europe and reflects the impact of the heatwave. Such large anomalies spreading over a large part of the considered domain have never been observed in the LAI product over this 18-yr period. The LDAS-Monde land surface reanalyses were produced at spatial resolutions of 0.25°x0.25° (January 2008 to October 2018) and 0.10°x0.10° (April 2016 to December 2018). Both configuration of the LDAS-Monde forced by either ERA5 or HRES capture well the vegetation state in general and for this specific event, with HRES configuration exhibiting better monitoring skills than ERA5 configuration. The consistency of ERA5 and IFS HRES driven simulations over the common period (April 2016 to October 2018) allowed to disentangle and appreciate the origin of improvements observed between the ERA5 and HRES. Another experiment, down-scaling ERA5 to HRES spatial resolutions, was performed. Results suggest that land surface spatial resolution is key (e.g. associated to a better representation of the land cover, topography) and using HRES forcing still enhance the skill. While there are advantages in using HRES, there is added value in down-scaling ERA5, which can provide consistent, long term, high resolution land reanalysis. If the improvement from LDAS-Monde analysis on control variables (soil moisture from layers 2 to 8 of the model representing the first meter of soil and LAI) from the assimilation of SSM and LAI was expected, other model variables benefit from the assimilation through biophysical processes and feedbacks in the model. Finally, we also found added value of initializing 8-day land surface HRES driven forecasts from LDAS-Monde analysis when compared with model only initial conditions.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0034.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: respiratory illness; pathogenicity; virulence; natural selection; colds; influenza; rhinovirus; weather; climate; Tropics; summer; winter
Online: 1 March 2021 (17:14:19 CET)
This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed generations of virologists: (1) the seasonal timing of respiratory illness; (2) the common viruses causing respiratory illness worldwide, including year-round disease in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of outbreaks to weather, specifically temperature; (4) the rapid arrival and termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other viruses. The inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality is discussed, and a simple hypothesis is proposed, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TDVT), that is compatible with the above features of respiratory illness. TDVT notes that viruses can transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining host mobility) and suggests that endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific viral tropism within the human body, whereby they replicate most rapidly at temperatures below body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. Biochemical and tissue-culture studies show that “wild” respiratory viruses show such natural thermal sensitivity. The typical early autumn surge of colds and the existence of respiratory illness in the Tropics year-round at intermediate levels are explained by the tendency for strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. The TDVT hypothesis has important practical implications for preventing and treating respiratory illness including Covid-19. TVDT is testable with many options for experiments to increase our understanding of viral seasonality and pathogenicity.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0389.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: respiratory illness; pathogenicity; virulence; natural selection; colds; influenza; rhinovirus; weather; climate; Tropics; summer; winter
Online: 19 January 2021 (16:42:56 CET)
This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed many generations of microbiologists: (1) the seasonal occurrence of viral respiratory illness; (2) the occurrence of respiratory illness year-round in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of illness to temperature drops in temperate regions; (4) the explosive arrival and rapid termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses. I discuss the inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality, and propose a simple hypothesis, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TD-VT), that is compatible with the above and other features of respiratory illness. TD-VT notes that viruses can often transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining the mobility of their hosts) and suggests that most endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity, in the sense that they normally replicate rapidly only at temperatures below normal body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. I review biochemical and tissue-culture studies that found that “wild” respiratory viruses often show natural thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific tropism within the human body, and I discuss the evident tendency for viral strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. I also explore the possible misinterpretation of early experiments where volunteers were inoculated nasally with viral samples and then chilled. Next, I discuss the practical implications of the TD-VT hypothesis for preventing and treating respiratory illness. Finally, I note that the hypothesis is very testable and make suggestions for the most important experiments to increase our understanding of the seasonality and pathogenicity of viral respiratory illness.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201907.0185.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: summer-mean Arctic circulation patterns; extra-tropical synoptic cyclones; self-organizing maps (SOMs); cyclone detection and tracking
Online: 15 July 2019 (15:24:28 CEST)
The contribution of extra-tropical synoptic cyclones to the formation of summer-mean atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arctic is investigated by clustering the dominant Arctic circulation patterns by the self-organizing maps (SOMs) using the daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the Arctic domain (≥ 60°N). Three SOM patterns are identified: one with prevalent low pressure anomalies in the Arctic Circle (SOM1) and two opposite dipoles with primary high pressure anomalies covering the Arctic Ocean (SOM2 and SOM3). The time series of summertime occurrence frequencies demonstrate the largest inter-annual variation in the SOM1, the slight decreasing trend in the SOM2, and the abrupt upswing after 2007 in the SOM3. The relevant analyses with produced cyclone track data confirm that the vital contribution. The Arctic cyclone activity is enhanced in the SOM1 because the meridional temperature gradient increases over the land–Arctic Ocean boundaries co-located with major extra-tropical cyclone pathways. The composite daily synoptic evolutions for each SOM reveal that the persistence of all the three SOMs is less than 5 days on average. These evolutionary short-term weather patterns have substantial variability at inter-annual and longer timescales. Therefore, the synoptic-scale activity is central to forming the seasonal-mean climate of the Arctic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0550.v1
Subject: Biology, Other Keywords: Heat; Heatwave; Cardiovascular diseases; Respiratory diseases; Hospital admissions; Climate change; ambient temperature; Public health; time series; summer months
Online: 23 September 2020 (10:32:12 CEST)
There is a lack of knowledge concerning the effects of ambient heat exposure on morbidity in Northern Europe. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the relationships of daily summer-time temperature and heatwaves with cardiorespiratory hospital admissions in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. Methods: Time-series models adjusted for potential confounders such as air pollution were used to investigate the associations of daily temperature and heatwaves with cause-specific cardiorespiratory hospital admissions, during summer months of 2001-2017. Daily number of hospitalizations was obtained from the national hospital discharge register, weather information from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Results: Increased daily temperature was associated with decreased risk of total respiratory hospital admissions and asthma. Heatwave days were associated with 20.5% (95% CI: 6.9, 35.9) increased risk of pneumonia admissions and during long or intense heatwaves also with total respiratory admissions in the oldest age group (≥ 75 years). There were also suggestive positive associations between heatwave days and admissions due to myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular diseases. In contrast, risk of arrhythmia admissions was decreased 20.8% (95% CI: 8.0, 31.8) during heatwaves. Conclusions: Heatwaves, rather than single hot days, are a health threat affecting the morbidity even in a Northern climate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0511.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: secular changes; sunspot cycles; Indian summer monsoon rainfall; droughts in India; medieval solar maximum; Maunder minima; El Nino
Online: 24 August 2020 (08:04:03 CEST)
We have defined M cycles as modified form of Gleissberg cycles to study the quasi-periodic secular changes in sunspot activity. Using direct and proxy observations for more than 1200 years we have provided evidence for the influence of the above M cyles on the monsoon rainfall variability and occurrences of major droughts in India. The solar cycle averages of All Indian summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) and probability of observation of below or above normal AISMR is found to show correlated variations with changes in amplitude of sunspot cycles during the years 1901-2018 AD. Major droughts in India show a preference to occur during minima and declining phases of the M cycles during the years 650-2018 AD . We could generally find low probability of occurrence of droughts in India during the medieval solar maximum epoch ( 1100-1250 AD) and during most of the prolonged sunspot minima periods including the Maunder minima. The evolution of mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 650-1900 AD is studied using proxy data from multiple sources with maxima during the 12th century and minima during 14th and 19th centuries. The association of Indian droughts with El-Nino and the possibilities of long term prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability will be also discussed
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0042.v1
Subject: Biology, Plant Sciences Keywords: epigenetics; H3K9 methylation; H3K4 methylation; DNA methylation; seasonal climate change; summer dormancy; heat shock proteins; ribosomal proteins; Zygophyllum dumosum Boiss
Online: 4 June 2018 (12:49:59 CEST)
Plants thriving in desert environments are suitable for studying mechanisms for plant survival under extreme seasonal climate variation. Zygophyllum dumosum Boiss, like many other Zygophyllaceae species, displays a unique epigenetic mechanism whereby the repressive markers di- and tri-methyl of H3K9 do not exist. We studied epigenetic mechanisms underlying seasonal growth cycles in Z. dumosum and their association with factors regulating basic cell functions. We showed strong association between rainfall and seasonal growth and the epigenetic marker of dimethyl H3K4, which disappears on entry into the dry season and the acquisition of dormant state. DNA methylation is not affected by lack of H3K9 di and tri methyl and changes in methylation pattern are apparent on entry into the dry season. Proteome analysis of acid soluble fractions revealed extensive reduction in ribosomal proteins and in proteins involved in chloroplasts and mitochondria activities during the dry seasons concomitantly with up-regulation of molecular chaperone HSPs. Our results highlight mechanisms underlying Z. dumosum adaptation to seasonal climate variation. Particularly, summer dormancy is associated with loss of the permissive epigenetic marker dimethyl H3K4, which might facilitate genome compaction, concomitantly with significant reduction in proteins involved in basic cell functions (i.e., protein synthesis, photosynthesis and respiration).