ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0122.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: open health; simple rules; ethics; reproducibility; research significance; open science
Online: 11 September 2019 (13:27:26 CEST)
We are witnessing a dramatic transformation in the way we do science. In recent years, significant flaws with existing scientific methods have come to light, including lack of transparency, insufficient involvement of stakeholders, disconnection from the public, and limited reproducibility of research findings. These concerns have sparked a global movement to revolutionize scientific practice and the emergence of Open Science. This new approach to science extends principles of openness to the entire research cycle, from hypothesis generation to data collection, analysis, replication, and translation from research to practice. Open Science seeks to remove all barriers to conducting high quality, rigorous, and impactful scientific research by ensuring that the data, methods, and opportunities for collaboration are open to all. Emerging digital technologies and "big data" (see "Ten simple rules for responsible big data research") have further accelerated the Open Science movement by affording new approaches to data sharing, connecting researcher networks, and facilitating the dissemination of research findings. Open scientific practices are also having a profound impact on the health sciences and medical research, and specifically how we conduct clinical research with human participants. Human health research necessitates careful considerations for practicing science in an ethical manner. There is also a particular urgency to human health research since the goal is to help people, so doing good science takes on a different meaning than simply doing science well. It also implores the scientist to reassess the conventional view of human health research as a pursuit conducted by scientists on human subjects, and lays a greater emphasis on inclusive and ethical practices to ensure that the research takes into account the interests of those who would be most impacted by the research. Openness in the context of human health research also raises greater concerns about privacy and security and presents more opportunities for people, including participants of research studies, to contribute in every capacity. At the core of open health research, scientific discoveries are not only the product of collaboration across disciplines, but must also be owned by the community that is inclusive of researchers, health workers, and patients and their families. To guide successful open health research practices, it is essential to carefully consider and delineate its guiding principles. This editorial is aimed at individuals participating in health science in any capacity, including but not limited to people living with medical conditions, health professionals, study participants, and researchers spanning all types of disciplines. We present ten simple rules that, while not comprehensive, offer guidance for conducting health research with human participants in an open, ethical, and rigorous manner. These rules can be difficult, resource-intensive, and can conflict with one another. They are aspirational and are intended to accelerate and improve the quality of human health research. Work that fails to follow these rules is not necessarily an indication of poor quality research, especially if the reasons for breaking the rules are considered and articulated (see rule 6: document everything). While most of the responsibility of following these rules falls on researchers, anyone involved in human health research in any capacity can apply them.
Online: 4 September 2020 (12:32:58 CEST)
As part of a plethora of global efforts to minimize the negative effects of the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic, we developed two different mechanisms that, after further development, could potentially be of use in the future in order to increase the capacity of ventilators with low-cost devices based on single-use-bag-valve mask systems. We describe the concept behind the devices and report a characterization of them. Finally, we make a description of the solved and unsolved challenges and propose a series of measures in order to better cope with future contingencies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201707.0017.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: prime graph; simple group; orthogonal groups; quasirecognition
Online: 10 July 2017 (09:01:04 CEST)
Let G be a finite group. The prime graph Γ(G) of G is defined as follows: The set of vertices of Γ(G) is the set of prime divisors of |G| and two distinct vertices p and p' are connected in Γ(G), whenever G has an element of order pp'. A non-abelian simple group P is called recognizable by prime graph if for any finite group G with Γ(G)=Γ(P), G has a composition factor isomorphic to P. In  proved finite simple groups 2Dn(q), where n ≠ 4k are quasirecognizable by prime graph. Now in this paper we discuss the quasirecognizability by prime graph of the simple groups 2D2k(q), where k ≥ 9 and q is a prime power less than 105.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0462.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Numerical Analysis & Optimization Keywords: Newton’s method; normal S-iteration; weak condition; simple root
Online: 31 October 2022 (02:23:04 CET)
In the present paper, we introduced a quadratically convergent Newton’s like normal S2 iteration method free from the second derivative for the solution of nonlinear equations permitting 3 f'(x) = 0 at some points in the neighborhood of the root. Our proposed method works well 4 when the Newton method fails. Numerically it has been verified that the Newton’s like normal 5 S-iteration method converges faster than Fang et al. method [A cubically convergent Newton-type 6 method under weak conditions, J. Compute. and Appl. Math., 220 (2008), 409-412]. We studied 7 different aspects of normal S-iteration method. Lastly, fractal patterns support the numerical 8 results and explain the convergence, divergence, and stability of method.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0176.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Simple Sequence Repeats; Polyomaviridae; Prevalence, Distribution; Virus Host; Evolution
Online: 14 June 2020 (14:35:24 CEST)
The simple sequence repeats (SSRs) are small 1-6bp tandem repeat elements present across diverse genomes and involved in gene regulation and evolution. Presently we analyzed SSRs in genomes of 98 species of family Polyomaviridae across four genera. The genome size ranged from 3962bp (BM87) to 7369bp (BM85) but maximum genomes were in the range of 5 to 5.5 kb. The GC% had an average of 42% and ranged between 34.69 (BM95) to 52.35 (BM81). A total of 3036 SSRs and 223 cSSRs were extracted using IMEx with incident frequency from 18 to 56 and 0 to 7 respectively. The most prevalent mono-nucleotide repeat motif was “T” (48.95%) followed by “A” (33.48%). “AT/TA” was the most prevalent dinucleotide motif closely followed by “CT/TC”. The distribution was expectedly more in coding region with 77.6% SSRs of which nearly half were in Large T Antigen (LTA) gene. Notably, most viruses with humans, apes and related species as host exhibited exclusivity of mono-nucleotide repeats in AT region, a proposed predictive marker for determination of humans as host in virus in course of its evolution. Each genome has a unique SSR signature which is pivotal for viral evolution particularly in terms of host divergence.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0597.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: global energy budget; simple greenhouse model; infrared-opaque limit
Online: 27 November 2018 (03:47:23 CET)
Earth atmosphere is almost opaque in the infrared: about 374 W/m2 is absorbed by the atmosphere out of 396 W/m2 surface upward longwave radiation, and only about 22 W/m2 leaves the system unabsorbed in the atmospheric window. This makes rise to the idea to approximate the annual global mean energy flow system from a simple idealized greenhouse model, where the surface is surrounded by a single-layer shortwave (SW) transparent, longwave (LW) opaque, non-turbulent atmosphere. The energy flows in this geometry can be described by elementary arithmetic relationships. Starting from this model, the realistic Earth’s atmosphere can be achieved by introducing partial atmospheric SW opacity, partial atmospheric LW transparency and turbulent fluxes during the course of the deduction. The resulted global mean energy flow system is then compared to several data sets such as satellite observations from the CERES mission; estimates using direct surface observations and climate models; global energy and water cycle assessments; and independent detailed clear-sky radiative transfer computations. We find that the deduction from this idealized model approximates the real values in Earth energy budget with reasonable accuracy: the deduced fluxes and the observed ones are consistent within the acknowledged error of observations; while fundamental features of the initial geometry like special ratios and definite relationships between the fluxes are preserved.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0277.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Numerical Analysis & Optimization Keywords: Simple Pendulum; Time Period; Magnetic Action; Numerical Integration; Error Analysis
Online: 15 December 2022 (08:57:20 CET)
In the present study, a simple approximation expression is given for the relationship between the period and amplitude of a simple pendulum under magnetic action. The analytical solution presented for the given problem. Two numerical quadrature methods Simpson's and Boole's method were utilized to demonstrate a new approximation of the problem. The results of the numerical quadrature have been compared to the exact solution. Absolute and relative mistakes of the problem have been presented. The Matlab program 2013R has created a numerical method that is used to analyze the outcome, It has been determined that the comparison's outcomes attest to the method's suitability and correctness. Moreover, the results show that numerical solution is suitable for the problem.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201704.0026.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Analysis Keywords: simple form; explicit form; differential equation; Lerch transcendent; logarithmic function
Online: 4 April 2017 (16:53:18 CEST)
In the note, the authors find several simple and explicit forms for a family of inhomogeneous linear ordinary differential equations studied in "D. Lim, Differential equations for Daehee polynomials and their applications, J. Nonlinear Sci. Appl. 10 (2017), no. 4, 1303-1315; Available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.22436/jnsa.010.04.02".
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0208.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Fluids & Plasmas Keywords: permeability; porous media; fluid dynamics; fluid current; turbulence; simple harmonic motion
Online: 18 October 2019 (07:29:42 CEST)
In this paper we develop from first principles a unique law pertaining to the flow of fluids through closed conduits. This law, which we call “Quinn’s Law”, may be described as follows: When fluids are forced to flow through closed conduits under the driving force of a pressure gradient, there is a linear relationship between the normalized dimensionless pressure gradient, PQ, and the normalized dimensionless fluid current, CQ. The relationship is expressed mathematically as: PQ = k1 +k2CQ. This linear relationship remains the same whether the conduit is filled with or devoid of solid obstacles. The law differentiates, however, between a packed and an empty conduit by virtue of the tortuosity of the fluid path, which is seamlessly accommodated within the normalization framework of the law itself. When movement of the fluid is very close to being at rest, i.e., very slow, this relationship has the unique minimum constant value of k1, and as the fluid acceleration increases, it varies with a slope of k2 as a function of normalized fluid current. Quinn’s Law is validated herein by applying it to the data from published classical studies of measured permeability in both packed and empty conduits, as well as to the data generated by home grown experiments performed in the author’s own laboratory.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0318.v2
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Geometry & Topology Keywords: Airspace Axiom; Simple Airspace Polygon; Free Route Airspace; Earth-centered Earth-fixed
Online: 5 May 2022 (03:25:54 CEST)
Free route airspace (FRA) is a new concept of European air transport. It has been designed to eliminate the negative impact of air traffic on the environment, minimize fuel consumption, simplify and expand flight planning. In our research, FRA is modelled by using graph theory, networks, and convex analysis. We also looked for answers to the question which are the basic mathematical properties of airspace? Basic mathematical properties are expressed using axioms. Therefore, in our work, we state the general, basic axiom of airspace based on our FRA research. The axiom is given using practical, significant entry points and geodetic coordinates.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0386.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: CFD; PIV; experimental fluid mechanics; pressure calculation; SIMPLE; Reynolds Stresses; measurement integration)
Online: 30 March 2022 (04:40:11 CEST)
Calculation of the pressure field on and around solid bodies exposed to external flow is of paramount importance to a number of engineering applications. However, conventional pressure measurement techniques are inherently linked to problems principally caused by their point-wise and/or intrusive nature. In the present paper, we attempt to calculate the time-averaged two-dimensional pressure field by integrating PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry) velocity measurements into a CFD code and modifying them by the respective correction step of the SIMPLE algorithm. Boundary conditions are applied from the PIV data as a three-layer area of constant velocities, adjacent to the boundaries. A novel characteristic of the approach is the straightforward inclusion of the Reynolds Stresses into the source terms of the momentum equations, calculated directly from the PIV statistics. The methodology is applied to three regions of the symmetry plane parallel to the main boundary layer flow past a surface mounted cube. In spite of findings of deviations from the planar 2D flow assumption, the derived pressure fields and the adjusted velocity fields are found to be reliable, while the intrinsic turbulent nature of the flow is considered without modelling of the Reynolds stresses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0018.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Applied Mathematics Keywords: the modified simple equation method; Cahn–Allen equation; soliton solution; kink type solutions
Online: 4 January 2017 (10:22:40 CET)
By using Modified simple equation method, we study the Cahn Allen equation which arises in many scientific applications such as mathematical biology, quantum mechanics and plasma physics. As a result, the existence of solitary wave solutions of the Cahn Allen equation is obtained. Exact explicit solutions interms of hyperbolic solutions of the associated Cahn Allen equation are characterized with some free parameters. Finally, the variety of structure and graphical representation make the dynamics of the equations visible and provides the mathematical foundation in mathematical biology, quantum mechanics and plasma physics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0660.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Debonding load; CFRP plate; RC beams; flexural strengthening; simple statistical analysis; fiber element method
Online: 29 July 2021 (13:57:58 CEST)
In this study, experimental work was carried out on reinforced concrete (RC) beams strengthened with carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) plates. This study aims to examine the effect of the reinforcement ratio on the flexural behavior of these beams and propose a new model for predicting the debonding moment. Six RC beams consisting of three control beams and three beams strengthened with CFRP plates were tested. The beams were simply supported and loaded with four-point bending. The test variable was the tensile reinforcement ratio (1%, 1.5%, and 2.5%). Analytical prediction using the fiber element method was also carried out to obtain the complete theoretical response of the beam due to flexural loads. The test results show that the reinforcement ratio affected the bending performance of RC beams with CFRP plates. Following this, the experimental data from 60 beam test results from published literature and this study were analyzed. From these data, it was found that the ratio of tensile reinforcement, the ratio of modulus of elasticity of concrete, the modulus of elasticity of the plate, and plate thickness all affect the value of debonding moment. A parametric study using fiber element and two-dimensional finite element method was also carried out to confirm the effect of these parameters on debonding failure. These parameters were then used to develop an equation to predict the debonding moment of RC beams strengthened with CFRP plates using simple statistical analysis. This analysis resulted in a simple model for predicting the debonding moment. Then the model is entered into a computer program, and the complete response of the cross-section due to debonding failure can be obtained.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0246.v1
Subject: Biology, Plant Sciences Keywords: Chloroplast genome; Machilus leptophylla; Hanceola exserta; Rubus bambusarum; Rubus henryi; Simple sequence repeat; Phylogenetic analysis
Online: 18 October 2021 (14:30:50 CEST)
The chloroplast genome is conservative and stable, which can be employed to resolve genotypes. Currently, published nuclear sequences and molecular markers failed to differentiate the species from taxa robustly, including Machilus leptophylla, Hanceola exserta, Rubus bambusarum, and Rubus henryi. In this study, the four chloroplast genomes were characterized, and then their simple sequence repeats (SSRs) and phylogenetic positions were analyzed. The results demonstrated the four chloroplast genomes consisted of 152.624 kb, 153.296kb, 156.309 kb, and 158.953 kb in length, involving 124, 130, 129, and 131 genes, respectively. Moreover, the chloroplast genomes contained typical four regions. Six classes of SSR were identified from the four chloroplast genomes, in which mononucleotide was the class with the most members. The types of the repeats were various within individual classes of SSR. Phylogenetic trees indicated that M. leptophylla was clustered with M. yunnanensis, and H. exserta was confirmed under family Ocimeae. Additionally, R. bambusarum and R. henryi were clustered together, whereas they did not belong to the same species due to the differing SSR features. This research would provide evidence for resolving the species and contributed new genetic information for further study.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0050.v1
Subject: Materials Science, General Materials Science Keywords: severe plastic deformation (SPD); mode deformation; simple shear and pure shear; structure modification; SPD techniques
Online: 3 July 2018 (13:10:23 CEST)
In this review, severe plastic deformation (SPD) is considered as a materials processing technology. The deformation mode is the principal characteristic differentiating SPD from common forming operations. For large plastic strains, deformation mode depends on the distribution of strain rates between continuum slip lines and can be varied from pure shear to simple shear. A scalar, invariant and dimensionless coefficient of deformation mode is introduced as a normalized speed of rigid rotation. On this basis, simple shear provides the optimum mode for structure modification and grain refinement whereas pure shear is "ideal" for forming operations. Special experiments and SPD practice confirm this conclusion. Various techniques of SPD are classified and described in accordance with simple shear realization or approximation. It is shown that correct analyses of the processing mechanics and technological parameters are essential for comparison of SPD techniques and the development of effective industrial technologies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0742.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Geometry & Topology Keywords: eneralized topological space, generalized local connectedness, generalized pathwise connectedness, generalized local pathwise connectedness, generalized simple connectedness, generalized components
Online: 31 October 2018 (09:00:17 CET)
Several specific types of ordinary and generalized connectedness in a generalized topological space have been defined and investigated for various purposes from time to time in the literature of topological spaces. Our recent research in the field of a new type of generalized connectedness in a generalized topological space is reported herein as a starting point for more generalized types.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0316.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Precision farming; Crop type mapping; Digital agriculture; Sentinel-2; Random Forest; SVM; Field boundaries; Canny; Simple non-iterative clustering
Online: 19 April 2020 (03:14:37 CEST)
Crop type and field boundary mapping enable cost-efficient crop management on the field scale and serve as the basis for yield forecasts. Our study uses a data set with crop types and corresponding field borders from the federal state of Bavaria, Germany, as documented by farmers from 2016 to 2018. The study classified corn, winter wheat, barley, sugar beet, potato, and rapeseed as the main crops grown in Upper Bavaria. Corresponding Sentinel-2 data sets include the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and raw band data from 2016 to 2018 for each selected field. The influences of clouds, raw bands, and NDVI on crop type classification are analysed, and the classification algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), are compared. Field boundary detection and extraction are based on non-iterative clustering and a newly developed procedure based on Canny edge detection. The results emphasise the application of Sentinel’s raw bands (B1–B12) and RF, which outperforms SVM with an accuracy of up to 94%. Furthermore, we forecast data for an unknown year, which slightly reduces the classification accuracy. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proof-of-concept and its readiness for use in real applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0098.v1
Subject: Biology, Animal Sciences & Zoology Keywords: genetic variation; brine shrimp Artemia; invasive species; mt-DNA COI; Inter-Simple Sequence Repeats (ISSRs) genomic fingerprinting; Western Asia
Online: 6 March 2020 (02:43:06 CET)
Due to the rapid developments in aquaculture industry, Artemia franciscana, originally an American species, has been intentionally introduced to the Eurasia, Africa and Australia. In the present study, we used a partial sequence of the mitochondrial DNA Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (mt-DNA COI) gene and genomic fingerprinting by Inter-Simple Sequence Repeats (ISSRs) to determine the genetic variability and population structure of Artemia populations (indigenous and introduced) from 14 different geographical locations in Western Asia. Based on the haplotype spanning network, Artemia urmiana has exhibited higher genetic variation than native parthenogenetic populations. Although A. urmiana represented a completely private haplotype distribution, no apparent genetic structure was recognized among the native parthenogenetic and invasive A. franciscana populations. Our ISSR findings have documented that despite invasive populations have lower variation than source population in Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA), they have significantly revealed higher genetic variability compare to the native populations in Western Asia. According to the ISSR results, the native populations were not fully differentiated by the PCoA analysis, but the exotic A. franciscana populations were geographically divided in four genetic groups. We believe that during the colonization, invasive populations have experienced substantial genetic divergences, under new ecological conditions in the non-indigenous regions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0112.v2
Subject: Materials Science, Polymers & Plastics Keywords: freely jointed chain; confinement; enumeration; conformational entropy; phase transition; self-avoiding random walk; face-centered cubic; simple cubic; lattice model
Online: 4 December 2018 (03:48:22 CET)
Polymers in highly confined geometries can display complex morphologies including ordered phases. A basic component of a theoretical analysis of their phase behavior in confined geometries is the knowledge of the number of possible single-chain conformations compatible with the geometrical restrictions and the established crystalline morphology. While the statistical properties of unrestricted self-avoiding random walks (SAWs) both on and off-lattice are very well known, the same is not true for SAWs in confined geometries. The purpose of this contribution is a) to enumerate the number of SAWs on the simple cubic (SC) and face-centered cubic (FCC) lattices under confinement for moderate SAW lengths, and b) to obtain an approximate expression for their behavior as a function of chain length, type of lattice, and degree of confinement. This information is an essential requirement for the understanding and prediction of entropy-driven phase transitions of model polymer chains under confinement. In addition, a simple geometric argument is presented that explains, to first order, the dependence of the number of restricted SAWs on the type of SAW origin.
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: breast cancer tumor; classification; majority-based voting mechanism; multilayer perceptron learning network; simple logistic regression; stochastic gradient descent learning; wisconsin breast cancer dataset
Online: 27 November 2019 (09:51:31 CET)
Breast cancer is the most common cause of death for women worldwide. Thus, the ability of artificial intelligence systems to predict and classify breast cancer is very important. In this paper, a hybrid ensemble method classification mechanism is proposed based on a majority voting mechanism. First, the performance of different state-of-the-art machine learning classification algorithms for the Wisconsin Breast Cancer Dataset (WBCD) were evaluated. The three best classifiers were then selected based on their F3 score. F3 score is used to emphasize the importance of false negatives (recall) in breast cancer classification. Then, these three classifiers, simple logistic Regression learning, stochastic gradient descent learning and multilayer perceptron network, are used for ensemble classification using a voting mechanism. We also evaluated the performance of hard and soft voting mechanism. For hard voting, majority-based voting mechanism was used and for soft voting we used average of probabilities, product of probabilities, maximum of probabilities and minimum of probabilities-based voting methods. The hard voting (majority-based voting) mechanism shows better performance with 99.42% as compared to the state-of-the-art algorithm for WBCD.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0126.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Genetics Keywords: flax; association mapping; genome-wide association study (GWAS); simple sequence repeat (SSR); single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP); quantitative trait loci (QTL); chromosome-scale pseudomolecules
Online: 14 January 2019 (07:19:08 CET)
Quantitative trait loci (QTL) are genomic regions associated with phenotype variation of quantitative traits in a population. To date, a total of 267 QTL for 29 quantitative traits have been reported in 13 studies on flax. Of these, 200 QTL from 12 studies were identified based on genetic maps, scaffold sequences, or pre-released chromosome-scale pseudomolecules. Molecular markers for QTL identification differed across studies but were mainly based on simple sequence repeat (SSR) or single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. This article provides methods with software tools and database files to uniquely map SSR and SNP markers from different references onto the recently released chromosome-scale pseudomolecules. Using these methods, 195 QTL were successfully sorted onto the 15 flax chromosomes and grouped into 133 co-located QTL clusters. Mapping of QTL from different studies to the same reference enables comparisons and facilitates genome-wide QTL analysis, candidate gene scanning, and breeding applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0164.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Integrated water resources management; support to decision-making process, streamflow forecast; simple and low-cost forecasting model; Guadalquivir River Basin; Genil River; Canales reservoir; Quéntar reservoir
Online: 11 June 2018 (16:40:22 CEST)
Forecasting streamflow accurately is essential to achieve an efficient integrated water resources management strategy and provide consistent support to water decision-makers. We present a simple, low-cost and robust approach for forecasting monthly and yearly streamflow during the hydrological year in course, applicable to headwater catchments. It combines the use of regression analysis techniques, the two-parameter Gamma continuous cumulative probability distribution function and the Monte Carlo method. It is based on a probabilistic comparison of the progression of the current hydrological year with the historic observed series. The methodology has been successfully applied to two headwater reservoirs within the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain. The root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient were used to measure the accuracy of the model and the results showed good levels of reliability. The outputs are the probabilistic monthly and yearly streamflow and 80% confidence interval. Further reductions in prediction errors may be achieved from increasing the number of observed years. These risk-based predictions are of great value, especially, before the intensive irrigation campaign starts (usually in April), when Water Authorities are to take responsible management decisions about the best allocation of the available water volume between the different water users and environmental needs.