Extensive, but remote oil and gas fields of the United States, Canada, and Russia require the construction and operation of extremely long pipelines. Global warming and local heating effects lead to rising soil temperatures and thus a reduction in the sub-grade capacity of the soils; this causes changes in the spatial positions and forms of the pipelines, consequently increasing the number of accidents. Oil operators are compelled to monitor the soil temperature along the routes of the remoted pipelines in order to be able to perform remedial measures in time. They are therefore seeking methods for the analysis of volumetric diagnostic information. To forecast soil temperatures at the different depths we propose compiling a multidimensional dataset, defining descriptive statistics; selecting uncorrelated time series; generating synthetic features; robust scaling temperature series, tuning the additive regression model to forecast soil temperatures.

With a longer-term goal of addressing the comparative behavior of the aqueous halides F$^-$, Cl$^-$, Br$^-$, and I$^-$ on the basis of quasi-chemical theory (QCT), here we study structures and free energies of hydration clusters for those anions. We confirm that energetically optimal $(\mathrm{H_2O})_n\mathrm{X}$ clusters, with X = Cl$^-$, Br$^-$, and I$^-$, exhibit \emph{surface} hydration structures. Computed free energies based on optimized surface hydration structures utilizing a harmonic approximation, typically (but not always) disagree with experimental free energies. To remedy the harmonic approximation, we utilize single-point electronic structure calculations on cluster geometries sampled from an AIMD (\emph{ab initio} molecular dynamics) simulation stream. This \emph{rough-landscape} procedure is broadly satisfactory and suggests unfavorable ligand crowding as the physical effect corrected. Nevertheless, this procedure can break down when $n \gtrsim 4$, with the characteristic discrepancy resulting from a relaxed definition of clustering in the identification of $(\mathrm{H_2O})_n\mathrm{X}$ clusters, including ramified structures natural in \emph{physical cluster theories.} With ramified structures, the central equation for the present rough-landscape approach can acquire some inconsistency. Extension of these physical cluster theories in the direction of QCT should remedy that issue, and should be the next step in this research direction.

Lake Malombe fish stocks have been depleted by chronic overfishing. Various management approaches (co-management, command control, and ecosystem-based management to fisheries) have been used to manage the fishery. However, the lack of an accurate predictive model has hampered their success. Therefore, we developed and tested a time series model for Lake Malombe fishery. The seasonal fish biomass and CPUE trends were first observed and both were non-stationary. The second-order differencing was applied to transform the non-stationary data into stationary. Autocorrelation functions (AC), partial autocorrelation function (PAC), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting. The results showed that ARIMA (1,2,1) provided a better prediction than its counterparts. The model satisfactorily predicted that by 2032, both fish biomass and CPUE will decrease to 3204.6 tons and 59.672 respectively, signifying the potential threat to Lake Malombe fishery. The model justified the necessity of taking precautionary measures to avoid the total collapse of the fishery.

Monitoring drought impacts in forest ecosystems is a complex process, because forest ecosystems are composed of different species with heterogeneous structural compositions. Even though forest drought status is a key control on the carbon cycle, very few indices exist to monitor and predict forest drought stress. The Forest Drought Indicator (ForDRI) is a new monitoring tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to identify forest drought stress. ForDRI integrates 12 types of data, including satellite, climate, evaporative demand, ground water, and soil moisture, into a single hybrid index to estimate tree stress. The model uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the contribution of each input variable based on its covariance in the historical records (2003–2017). A 15-year time series of 780 ForDRI maps at a weekly interval were produced. The ForDRI values at a 12.5km spatial resolution were compared with normalized weekly Bowen ratio data, a biophysically based indicator of stress, from nine AmeriFlux sites. There were strong and significant correlations between Bowen ratio data and ForDRI at sites that had experienced intense drought. In addition, tree ring annual increment data at eight sites in four eastern U.S. national parks were compared with ForDRI values at the corresponding sites. The correlation between ForDRI and tree ring increments at the selected eight sites during the summer season ranged between 0.46 and 0.75. Generally, the correlation between the ForDRI and normalized Bowen ratio or tree ring increment are reasonably good and indicate the usefulness of the ForDRI model for estimating drought stress and providing decision support on forest drought management.

For more than ten years, Central Chile faces drought conditions, which impact crop production and quality, increasing food security risk. Under this scenario, implementing management practices that allow increasing water use efficiency is urgent. The study was carried out in kiwifruit trees, located in the O’Higgins region, Chile; for season 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. We evaluate nine vegetation indices in the VNIR and SWIR regions derived from Sentinel-2 (A/B) satellites to know how much variability in the canopy water status could explain. Over the study's site were installed sensors that continuously measure the leaf's turgor pressure (Yara Water-Sensor). A strong correlation between turgor pressure and vegetation indices was obtained with the Spearman's rho coefficient ($\rho$). However, the NIR range's indices were influenced by the vegetative development of the crop rather than its water status. Red-edge showed better performance as the vegetative growth did not affect it. It is necessary to expand the study to consider higher variability in kiwifruit's water conditions and incorporate the sensitivity of different wavelengths.

Many clustering approaches succeed in pattern segmentation in many applications. This unsupervised segmentation should be effective to reduce an expert labelling time: i.e, they must be able to detect the number of patterns and identify them in a sequence or map with the right cuts. Several direct and hierarchical clustering approaches are compared for this task. A divisive spectral clustering architecture with a no-cut criteria is also proposed. This new algorithm achieves promise segmentation of spatial UCI databases and marine time series compared to other approaches.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are causing significant damages to many nations. For mitigating its risk, Japan’s Prime Minister called on all elementary, junior high and high schools nationwide to close beginning March 1, 2020. However, its effectiveness in decreasing disease burden has not been investigated. Methods: We used daily data on the report of COVID-19 and coronavirus infection incidence in Japan until March 31, 2020. Time series analysis were conducted using Bayesian method. Local linear trend models with interventional effect were constructed for number of newly reported cases of COVID-19, including asymptomatic infections. We considered that the effects of intervention start to appear 9 days after the school closure; i.e., on March 9. Results: The intervention of school closure did not appear to decrease the incidence of coronavirus infection. If the effectiveness of school closure began on March 9, mean coefficient α for effectiveness of the measure was calculated to be 0.08 (95% credible interval -0.36 to 0.65), and the actual reported cases were more than predicted, yet with rather wide credible interval. Sensitivity analyses using different dates also showed similar results. Conclusions: School closure carried out in Japan did not show the effectiveness to mitigate the transmission of novel coronavirus infection.

Mapping forest composition using multiseasonal optical time series is still challenging. Highly contrasted results are reported from one study to another suggesting that drivers of classification errors are still under-explored. We evaluated the performances of single-year Formosat-2 time series to discriminate tree species in temperate forests in France and investigated how predictions vary statistically and spatially across multiple years. Our objective was to better estimate the impact of spatial autocorrelation in the validation data on measurement accuracy and to understand which drivers in the time series are responsible for classification errors. The experiments were based on ten Formosat-2 image time series irregularly acquired during the seasonal vegetation cycle from 2006 to 2014. Due to lot of clouds in the year 2006, an alternative 2006 time series using only cloud-free images has been added. Thirteen tree species were classified in each single-year dataset based on the SVM algorithm. The performances were assessed using a spatial leave-one-out cross validation (SLOO-CV) strategy, thereby guaranteeing full independence of the validation samples, and compared with standard non-spatial leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV). The results show relatively close statistical performances from one year to the next despite the differences between the annual time series. Good agreements between years were observed in monospecific tree plantations of broadleaf species versus high disparity in other forests composed of different species. A strong positive bias in the accuracy assessment (up to 0.4 of Overall Accuracy) was also found when spatial dependence in the validation data was not removed. Using the SLOO-CV approach, the average OA values per year ranged from 0.48 for 2006 to 0.60 for 2013, which satisfactorily represents the spatial instability of species prediction between years.

In Portugal, cork oak (Quercus suber L.) stands cover 737 Mha, being the most predominant species of the montado agroforestry system, contributing for the economic, social and environmental development of the country. Cork oak decline is a known problem since the late years of the 19th century that has recently worsen. The causes of oak decline seem to be a result of slow and cumulative processes, although the role of each environmental factor is not yet established. The availability of Sentinel-2 high spatial and temporal resolution dense time series enables gradual processes monitoring. These processes can be monitored using spectral vegetation indices (VI) once their temporal dynamics are expected to be related with green biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is sensitive to structural canopy changes, however it tends to saturate at moderate-to-dense canopies. Modified VI have been proposed to incorporate the reflectance in the red-edge spectral region, which is highly sensitive to chlorophyll content while largely unaffected by structural properties. In this research, in-situ data on the location and vitality status of cork oak trees are used to assess the correlation between chlorophyll indices (CI) and NDVI time series trends and cork oak vitality at the tree level. Preliminary results seem to be promising since differences between healthy and unhealthy (diseased/dead) trees were observed.

The complexity of Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs) increases with the number of nodes in energy system models. An increasing complexity constitutes a high computational load that can limit the scale of the energy system model. Especially in microgrid optimisation problems with multiple buildings and energy systems with a number of rival supply, distribution and storage technologies, methods are sought to reduce this complexity. In this paper, we present a new 2-Level Approach to MILP energy system models that determine the system design through a combination of continuous and discrete decisions. On the first level, data reduction methods are used to determine the discrete design decisions in a simplified solution space. Those decisions are then fixed, and on the second level the full dataset is used to extract the exact scaling of the chosen technologies. The performance of the new 2-Level Approach is evaluated for a case study of an urban energy system with six buildings and an island system based on a high share of renewable energy technologies. The results of the studies show a high accuracy with respect to the total annual costs, chosen system structure, installed capacities and peak load with the 2-Level Approach compared to the results of a single level optimization. The computational load is thereby reduced by more than one order of magnitude, while a significantly higher accuracy is reached in comparison to the common time series aggregation approach.

The goal of VAR or BVAR is the characterization of the dynamics and endogenous relationships among time series. Also the VAR models are known for their applications to forecasting and policy analysis. This paper compare the performance of VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR models when the multiple time series are jointly influenced by different levels of collinearity and autocorrelation in the short term (T=16, 32, 64 and 128). Five levels (-0.9,-0.5, 0,+0.5,+0.9) of collinearity and autocorrelation were considered and the results from the simulation study revealed that VAR(2) model dominated for no and moderate levels of autocorrelation (-0.5, 0, +0.5) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=16. While the BVAR models dominated for high autocorrelation levels (-0.9 and +0.9) irrespective of the collinearity level except in few cases when T=128. The performance of the models varies at different levels of the collinearity and autocorrelated error, and also varies with the short term periods. Furthermore, the values of the RMSE and MAE criteria decrease as a result of increase in the time series length. In conclusion, the performance of the forecasting models depend on the time series data structure and the time series length. It is therefore recommended that the data structure and series length should be considered in using an appropriate model for forecasting.

This paper has three objectives, the first is to present a detailed overview in the form of a tutorial for the developments of several key quantile time series modelling approaches. The second objective is to develop a general framework to represent such quantile models in a unifying manner in order to easily develop extensions and connections between existing models that can then be developed to further extend these models in practice. In this regard, the core theme of the paper is to provide perspectives to a general audience of core components that go into construction of a quantile time series model and then to explore each of these core components in detail. The paper is not addressing the concerns of estimation of these models, as there is existing literature on these aspects in many settings, we provide references to relevant works on these aspects in several classes of model. Instead, the focus is rather to provide a unified framework to construct such models for practitioners, therefore the focus is instead on the properties of the models and links between such models from a constructive perspective. The third objective is to compare and discuss the application of the different quantile time series models on several sets of interesting demographic and mortality based time series data sets of relevance to life insurance analysis. The exploration included detailed mortality, fertility, births and morbidity data in several countries with more detailed analysis of regional data in England, Wales and Scotland.

Anomaly detection plays a significant role in helping gas turbines run reliably and economically. Considering collective anomalous data and both sensitivity and robustness of the anomaly detection model, a sequential symbolic anomaly detection method is proposed and applied to the gas turbine fuel system. A structural Finite State Machine is to evaluate posterior probabilities of observing symbolic sequences and most probable state sequences they may locate. Hence an estimating based model and a decoding based model are used to identify anomalies in two different ways. Experimental results indicates that these two models have both ideal performance overall, and estimating based model has a strong ability in robustness, while decoding based model has a strong ability in accuracy, particularly in a certain range of length of sequence. Therefore, the proposed method can well facilitate existing symbolic dynamic analysis based anomaly detection methods especially in gas turbine domain.

With the great development of intelligent transportation systems (ITS), travel time prediction has attracted the attentions of many researchers and a large number of prediction methods have been developed. However, as an unavoidable topic, the predictability of travel time series is the basic premise for travel time prediction has received less attention than the methodology. Based on the analysis of the complexity of travel time series, this paper defines travel time predictability to express the probability of correct travel time prediction and proposes an entropy-based method to measure the upper bound of travel time predictability. Multiscale entropy is employed to quantify the complexity of travel time series, and the relationships between entropy and the upper bound of travel time predictability are presented. Empirical studies are made with vehicle trajectory data in an express road section. The effectiveness of time scales, tolerance, and series length to entropy and travel time predictability are analysis, and some valuable suggestions about the accuracy of travel time predictability are discussed. Finally, the comparisons between travel time predictability and actual prediction results from two prediction models, ARIMA and BPNN, are conducted. Experimental results demonstrate the validity and reliability of the proposed travel time predictability.

The use of haptic devices in rehabilitation of impaired limbs has become rather popular, given the proven effectiveness in promoting recovery. In a standard framework, such devices are used in rehabilitation centers, where patients interact with virtual tasks, presented on a screen. To track their sessions, kinematic/dynamic parameters or performance scores are recorded. However, as Internet access is now available at almost every home, and in order to reduce the hospitalization time of the patient, the idea of doing rehabilitation at home is gaining wide consent. Medical care programs can be synchronized with the home rehabilitation device; patient data can be sent to the central server that could redirect to the therapist laptop (tele-healthcare). The controversial issue is that the recorded data do not actually represent the clinical conditions of the patients according to the medical assessment scales, forcing them to frequently undergo clinical tests at the hospital. To respond to this demand, we propose the use of a bilateral master/slave haptic system that could allow the clinician, who interacts with the master, to assess remotely and in real time the clinical conditions of the patient that uses the home rehabilitation device as the slave. In this paper, we describe a proof of concept to highlight the main issues of such an application, limited to one degree of freedom, and to the measure of the stiffness and range of motion of the hand.

We investigate a singularly perturbed q-difference differential Cauchy problem with polynomial coefficients in complex time and space with quadratic nonlinearity. We construct local holomorphic solutions on sectors in the complex plane with respect to the perturbation parameter with values in some Banach space of formal power series in space with analytic coefficients on shrinking domains in time. Two aspects of these solutions are addressed. One feature concerns asymptotic expansions in the parameter for which a Gevrey type structure is unveiled. The other fact deals with confluence properties as q tends to 1. In particular the built up Banach valued solutions are shown to merge in norm to a fully bounded holomorphic map in all its arguments that solves a nonlinear partial differential Cauchy problem.

The Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) is a flexible component of the Incentive Regulation (IBR) that empowers power producers to adjust tariffs in response to variable fuel prices, thereby enhancing the economic resilience of electricity generation. However, the cost of electricity generation is significantly influenced by the volatility of commodity prices, including coal, gas and LNG. In Malaysia, the Energy Commission has conducted biannual reviews of fuel and other generation costs. Any cost savings or increases identified during these reviews will be passed on to customers in the form of rebates or surcharges. Due to that reason, this study proposes ICPT price forecasting for the electricity market in Peninsular Malaysia. The study aims to construct an ICPT-related baseline model for the peninsular generation data by employing three forecasting methods. The forecasting performance is analysed by a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In findings, the ARIMA method is one of the most accurate forecasting methods for fuel prices compared to the Moving Average (MA) and LSSVM methods. The observed price differences between the ARIMA and LSSVM models for ICPT are minimal. The ICPT price for July-December 2022 and January-June 2023 is MYR 0.21/ kWh for ARIMA and MYR 0.18/kWh for LSSVM, which are close to the actual TNB’s ICPT tariff. As for the forecasting, the ICPT price is expected to drop for the next announcement. The findings of this study may contribute to a positive impact on the sustainability of the energy sector in Malaysia.

It is unavoidable that the characteristics of the robot system alter inexactly or cannot be correctly determined during movement and are impacted by external disturbances. There are many adaptive control methods, such as sliding control or neural control, to improve the quality of trajectory tracking for robot motion systems. Still, those methods require a large amount of computation related to solving the problem of constrained nonlinear optimization problem. The article presents some techniques for determining an intelligent controller's online learning function parameters, including two circuits: the inner circuit is a state feedback linearized controller, and the outer course is an Interactive learning controller and does not use the robot's mathematical mode with function parameters online optimal learning and intelligent online learning closely following the joint model to stabilize the robot system. Finally, the 2-DOF planar robot simulation is performed on Matlab software R2022b. The findings indicate that outstanding tracking performance is achievable.

The aim of article is to design a calm water resistance predictor based on Machine Learning Tools and development of a systematic series for battery-driven catamaran hull forms. Regression Trees (RT), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) regression models are applied for dataset training on developed systematic series of catamarans. A hullform optimization was implemented for various catamarans including dimensional and hull coefficient parameters based on resistance and structural weight reduction and battery performance improvement. This paper provides a diverse database of catamaran hullform. Hence, an automated Matlab program was coded for geometry generation and cost function evaluation. Design distribution based on Lackenby transformation fulfills all design space and sequentially a novel self-blending method reconstructs new hullforms based on two parents blending. Finally, a machine learning approach was conducted on generated data of case study. This study shows that ANN algorithm correlates well with the measured resistance. Accordingly, a general and unique tool is proposed for optimized and desired design in first design stage.

This study presents a novel approach for predicting hierarchical short time series. In this article, our objective was to formulate long-term forecasts for household natural gas consumption by considering the hierarchical structure of territorial units within a country's administrative divisions. For this purpose, we utilized natural gas consumption data from Poland. The length of the time series was an important determinant of the data set. We contrast global techniques, which employ a uniform method across all time series, with local methods that fit a distinct method for each time series. Furthermore, we compare the conventional statistical approach with a machine learning (ML) approach. Based on our analyses, we devised forecasting methods for short time series that exhibit exceptional performance. We have demonstrated that global models provide better forecasts than local models. Among ML models, neural networks yielded the best results, with the MLP network achieving comparable performance to the LSTM network while requiring significantly less computational time.

Off-road vehicles and transportation are vital for agricultural economics, yet the transition to green energies is challenging. To make this application easier, a tool that enables the testing of heavy-duty off-road vehicles in various scenarios was created. Based on the methods of the World Harmonized Transient Cycle, a new Hybrid Operational Cycle that reflects the features of agricultural work was created and applied in a graphical model simulation. This was a newly developed methodology. The cycle and the model were based on gathered research data. A numerical model of a medium-power tractor with an internal combustion engine and a series-hybrid setup was created, and simulations were performed in Matlab and AVL Cruise. The research compared both diesel and hybrid vehicles in terms of their power production, fuel consumption, and efficiency in fieldwork and transportation scenarios. The research showed that a series-hybrid transmission can achieve an efficiency similar to that of tractors with a continuously variable transmission (CVT), but with the use of an electric powertrain, there is still an opportunity to exploit energy regeneration in transportation and under low-load conditions. The designed model also may be used for the development of control algorithms for hybrid drives and the improvement of the efficiency thereof.

In this study, we meticulously compared the practical performance of four bootstrap methods for assessing the significance of causal analysis in time series data, recognizing that their evaluation has not been sufficiently conducted in the field. The methods investigated were uncorrelated Phase Randomization Bootstrap (uPRB), which generates surrogate data with no cross-correlation between variables by randomizing the phase in the frequency domain; Time Shift Bootstrap (TSB), which generates surrogate data by randomizing the phase in the time domain; Stationary Bootstrap (SB), which calculates standard errors and constructs confidence regions for weakly dependent stationary observations; and AR-sieve bootstrap (ARSB), a resampling method based on autoregressive (AR) models that approximates the underlying data-generating process. Our study found that the AR-sieve bootstrap (ARSB) method outperformed the others in detecting both self-excitation and causality among variables. In contrast, the uncorrelated phase-randomized bootstrap (uPRB) and Stationary Bootstrap (SB) methods demonstrated limitations in specific scenarios. This detailed comparison highlights the need for selecting suitable bootstrap methods to ensure accurate results, ultimately guiding researchers in their choice of method for real data analysis.

Many applications in agriculture as well as other related fields including natural resources, environment, health, and sustainability, depend on recent and reliable cropland maps. Cropland extent and intensity plays a critical input variable for the study of crop production and food security around the world. However, generating such variables manually is difficult, expensive, and time consuming. In this work, we discuss a cost effective, fast, and simple machine learning based approach to provide reliable cropland mapping model using satellite imagery. The study includes four test regions namely; Iran, Mozambique, Sri-Lanka, and Sudan where Sentinel-2 satellite imagery were obtained with assigned NDVI scores. The solution presented in this paper discusses a complete pipeline including data collection, time series reconstruction , and cropland extent and crop intensity mapping using machine learning models. The approach proposed managed to achieve high accuracy results ranging between 0.92 to 0.98 across the four test regions at hand.

The alteration of natural land cover to impervious surfaces during development increases stormwater runoff. Stormwater Control Measures (SCMs) are used to manage water quantity and enhance water quality by restoring the hydrologic cycle altered by development. Often, SCMs have an outflow pipe to handle overflows or to manage the release of water detained when infiltration is not possible. Traditionally, these are static controls (e.g. a small orifice is used to restrict the volume of outflow), however, these systems can be improved by instituting real-time controls (RTC). RTC improve the functionality of SCMs by dynamically controlling outflows to adjust to environmental conditions. A major impediment to the widespread implementation of RTC is the high cost of installation and operation. This study utilized machine learning methods to develop a forecasting approach for the implementation of low-cost RTC that were implemented on a programmable gate of the outlet structure of a multi-stage basin in southeastern Pennsylvania. The goals were to decrease the peak flow exiting the basin during rain events, increase the volume of water detained, decrease the number of overtopping events, maintain healthy vegetation in the basin, and protect the downstream vegetation from erosion. Multiple popular data science algorithms were evaluated including multiple linear regression and long short-term memory. These algorithms were used with a dataset, which consisted of four years of historical sensor data, collected in 5-minute intervals, to train models to predict water levels to optimize operations. The accuracy of 30 models with three different methods of handling missing values were compared. A long short-term memory model configured with a 30-minute lead time produced the best results. Having an approximate same lag time of 30 minutes for the contributing drainage area of the SCM provided a sufficient RTC functioning period to improve the performance of the outlet structure.

: In this article, the authors propose an algorithmic approach to building a model of the dynamics of economic and, in particular, innovation processes. The approach under consideration is based on a complex algorithm that includes (1) decomposition of the time series into components using singular spectrum analysis; (2) recognition of the optimal component model based on fuzzy rules, and (3) creation of statistical models of individual components with their combination. It is shown that this approach corresponds to the high uncertainty characteristic of the tasks of the dynamics of innovation processes. The proposed algorithm makes it possible to create effective models that can be used both for analysis and for predicting the future states of the processes under study. The advantage of this algorithm is the possibility to expand the base of rules and components used for modeling. This is an important condition for improving the algorithm and its applicability for solving a wide range of problems.

We examine a family of nonlinear q-difference-differential Cauchy problems obtained as a coupling of linear Cauchy problems containing dilation q-difference operators, recently investigated by the author, and quasi-linear Kowalevski type problems that involve contraction q-difference operators. We build up local holomorphic solutions to these problems. Two aspects of these solutions are explored. One facet deals with asymptotic expansions in the complex time variable for which a mixed type Gevrey and q-Gevrey structure is exhibited. The other feature concerns the problem of confluence of these solutions as q tends to 1.

We evaluate some binomial cubic Fibonacci sums.

A signal analysis of the genoma sequenced of coronavirus variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.135, B.1.429-B.1.427, B.1.525 and P1 is presented. We deal with a certain type of finite alternating sum series having independently distributed terms associated with binary (0,1) indicators for the nucleotide bases A,C,G,T. This method provides additional information to conventional Similarity comparisons and Power Spectrum approaches. It leads to uncover distinctive patterns regarding the intrinsic data organization of genomic sequences according to its progression along the nucleotide bases position. Hence, the method could be useful for survelliance of genoma variants.

A linear Cauchy problem with polynomial coefficients wich combines q-difference operators for q>1 and differential operators of irregular type is examined. A finite set of sectorial holomorphic solutions w.r.t the complex time is constructed by means of classical Laplace transforms. These functions share a common asymptotic expansion in the time variable which turns out to carry a double layers structure which couples q-Gevrey and Gevrey bounds. In the last part of the work, the problem of confluence of these solutions as q tends to 1 is investigated.

Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) is a data set which includes satellite images across several years with a high acquisition rate. Radiometric normalization is a fundamental and important preprocessing method for remote sensing applications using SITS due to the radiometric distortion caused by noise between images. Normalizing the subject image based on the reference image is a general strategy when using traditional radiometric normalization methods to normalize multi-temporal imagery (usually two scenes or three scenes in different time phases). However, these methods are not suitable for calibrating SITS because they cannot minimize the radiometric distortion between any pair of images in SITS. The existing relative radiometric normalization methods for SITS are based on linear assumptions which cannot effectively reduce nonlinear radiometric distortion caused by continuously changing noise in SITS. To overcome this problem and obtain a more accurate SITS, this study proposed a Nonlinear Radiometric Normalization Model (named NMAG) for SITS based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Greedy Algroithm (GA) . In this method, GA was used to determine the correction order of SITS and calculate the error between the image to be corrected and normalized images, which avoided the selection of a single reference image. ANN was used to obtain the optimal solution of error function, which minimized the radiometric distortion between different images in SITS. SITS composed of 21 Landsat-8 images in Tianjin City from October 2017 to January 2019 were selected to test the method. We compared NMAG with other two contrasting method (refered as CM1 and CM2), and found that the average of root mean square error $(\mu_{RMSE})$ of NMAG $(497.22)$ was significantly smaller than those of CM1 $(641.39)$ and CM2 $(543.47)$, and the accuracy of normalized SITS obtained by using NMAG has increased by 22.4\% and 8.5\% toward CM1 and CM2, respectively. These experimental results confirmed the effectiveness of NMAG in the reduction of radiometric distortion caused by continuously changing noise between images in SITS.

(1) Introduction: The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has caused millions of infections worldwide and represents a significant challenge facing modern health care systems. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of lockdown measures on regional neonate services, which might be used to predict the long-term effects of medical behavior. (2) Methods: Using hospital information system (HIS) Statistics data from 4 January 2019 to 27 August 2020, an interrupted time-series analysis was employed to compare changes and trends in hospital admissions and disease spectrum before and after the lockdown interventions. Furthermore, this study was designed to evaluate whether the pandemic influenced newborns' healthcare behavior. (3) Results: Overall, 13,540 infants were admitted to the NICU during the pre-COVID period (n = 12082) and COVID-impacted period (n =4558). The patients' age at admission were younger than that of the pre-COVID-19 period (median age 5d vs. 6d after birth, p＜0.001). The overall number of neonate visits consistently decreased from the first days of the lockdown measures (24 January 2020). The disease spectrum for respiratory system, infectious diseases, and gastrointestinal disease indicated no declined immediately after intervention(p =0.079, p =0.113, p =0.060, respectively). There was an immediate decline in the volume of Jaundice-related conditions (p<0.001) after lockdown measures. The percentage of patients who suffer from respiratory system and infectious diseases has decreased (p =0.005 and p =0.002). However, a relatively high percentage of patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) presented with Jaundice-related conditions (p <0.001). (4) Conclusions: In summary, the COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the regional neonate services. However, it is still unclear what might be the effect of long-term effects from pandemic.

Natural circulation loop (NCL) systems are buoyancy-driven heat exchangers that are used in various industrial applications. The concept of passive heat exchange in NCL systems is attractive, because there is no need for an externally driven equipment (e.g., a pump) to maintain the fluid circulation. However, relying on buoyancy as the sole driving force may lead to several potential difficulties, one of which is generation of (possibly) time-varying nonlinearities in the dynamical system, where a difference in the time scales of heat transfer and fluid flow causes the flow to change from a steady-state regime to either an oscillatory regime or a flow-reversal regime, both of which are undesirable. In this paper, tools of symbolic time series analysis (e.g., probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA)) are proposed to identify selected regimes of operation in NCL systems, where the underlying principle is built upon the concept of pattern classification from measurements of fluid-flow dynamics. The proposed method is shown to be capable of identifying the current regime of operation from the initial time response under a given set of operational parameters. The efficacy of regime classification is demonstrated by testing on two data sets, generated from numerical simulation of a MATLAB SimuLink model that has previously been validated with experimental data. The results of the proposed PFSA-based classification are compared with those of a hidden Markov model (HMM) that serves as the baseline.

An application of deep convolutional neural network and recurrence plot for financial market movement prediction is presented. Though it is challenging and subjective to interpret its information, the pattern formed by a recurrence plot provide a useful insight into the dy- namical system. We used a recurrence plot of seven financial time series to train a deep neural network for financial market movement predic- tion. Our approach is tested on our dataset and achieved an average of 53.25% classification accuracy. The result suggests that a well trained deep convolutional neural network can learn a recurrence plot and pre- dict a financial market direction.

The futures market plays a significant role in hedging and speculating by investors. Although various models and instruments are developed for real-time trading, it is difficult to realize profit by processing and trading a vast amount of real-time data. This study proposes a real-time index futures trading strategy that uses the pattern of KOSPI 200 index futures time series data. We construct a pattern matching trading system (PMTS) based on a dynamic time warping algorithm that recognizes patterns of market data movement in the morning and determines the afternoon's clearing strategy. We adopt 13 and 27 representative patterns and conduct simulations with various ranges of parameters to find optimal ones. Our experimental results show that the PMTS provides stable and effective trading strategies with relatively low trading frequencies. Investor communities that have sustained financial markets are able to make more efficient investments by using the PMTS. In this sense, the system developed in this paper is a sustainable investment technique and helps financial markets achieve efficient sustainability.

The crucial stages in the geochemical evolution of the Earth’s crust, ocean, and atmosphere could be explained by the assumed low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR) that are triggered by seismic activity. LENR result in the fission of medium-weight elements accompanied by neutron emissions, involving Fe and Ni as starting elements, and C, N, O as resultants. Geochemical data and experimental evidences support the LENR hypothesis. A spectral analysis of the period 1955-2013 shows common cycles between interannual changes in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and global seismic-moment release, whereas the trending behavior of the atmospheric CO2 was in response to the anthropogenic emissions. Assuming a correlation between such seismic and atmospheric fluctuations, the latter could be explained by cycles of worldwide seismicity, which would trigger massively LENR in the Earth’s Crust. In this framework, LENR from active faults could be considered as a relevant cause of carbon formation and degassing of freshly-formed CO2 during seismic activity. However, further studies are necessary to validate the present hypothesis which, at the present time, mainly aims to stimulate debate on the models which regulates atmospheric CO2.

Reservoir computing (RC) systems can efficiently forecast chaotic time series using nonlinear dynamical properties of an artificial neural network of random connections. The versatility of RC systems has motivated further research on both hardware counterparts of traditional RC algorithms and more efficient RC-like schemes. Inspired by the nonlinear processes in a living biological brain and using solitary waves excited on the surface of a flowing liquid film, in this paper we experimentally validate a physical RC system that substitutes the effect of randomness for a nonlinear transformation of input data. Carrying out all operations using a microcontroller with a minimal computational power, we demonstrate that the so-designed RC system serves as a technically simple hardware counterpart to the `next-generation’ improvement of the traditional RC algorithm.

We examine a linear q-difference differential equation which is singular in complex time t at the origin. Its coefficients are polynomial in time and bounded holomorphic on horizontal strips in one complex space variable. The equation under study represents a q-analog of a singular partial differential equation, recently investigated by the author, which comprises Fuchsian operators and entails a forcing term that combines polynomial and logarithmic type functions in time. A sectorial holomorphic solution to the equation is constructed as a double complete Laplace transform in both time t and its complex logarithm log t and Fourier inverse integral in space. For a particular choice of the forcing term, this solution turns out to solve some specific nonlinear q-difference differential equation with polynomial coefficients in some positive rational power of t. Asymptotic expansions of the solution relatively to time t are investigated. A Gevrey type expansion is exhibited in a logarithmic scale. Furthermore, a formal asymptotic expansion in power scale is displayed, revealing a new fine structure involving remainders with both Gevrey and q-Gevrey type growth.

The available direct gas dynamic tables provide the area ratio and the Prandtl-Meyer(P-M) angle of isentropic expansion of gas as functions of the Mach number. But finding the value of the Mach number in terms of area ratio or P-M angle requires an inverse function. Currently, the Mach number is determined by either interpolation from the direct gas dynamics tables, or the application of non-linear equation solvers using numerical methods. Both methods are approximate. In this paper inverse functions for Mach number in the form of Taylor’s series expansions are reported to develop the so-called inverse tables. The advantage of this approach is that the Mach number with a greater accuracy, referred to as nearly exact can be obtained by reading from the inverse table. In the presentation, the necessary equations and new tables that can be used by the scientific community will be disseminated. The data and computer programs are made available on GitHub through https://github.com/anillals/Inverse-gas-dynamic-tables- and-codes. A paper describing the complete mathematical steps in the derivation of the equations can be found at https://rdcu.be/dgrlf

Accurate detection and quantification of regional vegetation trends is essential for understanding the dynamics of landscape ecology and vegetation distribution. We applied a comprehensive trend analysis to satellite data to describe geo-spatial changes in vegetation along the Pacific slope of Peru and northern Chile, from sea level to the continental divide, a region characterised by biologically unique and highly sensitive arid and semi-arid environments. Our statistical analyses show broad regional patterns of positive trends in EVI, called “greening” alongside patterns of “browning” where trends are negative between 2000 and 2020. The coastal plain and foothills, up 1000m, contain notable greening of the coastal Lomas and newly irrigated agricultural lands occurring alongside browning trends related to changes in land use practices and urban development. Strikingly, the precordilleras show a distinct ’greening strip’ which extends from approximately 6°S to 22°S, with an altitudinal trend; ascending from the tropical lowlands (170-780 m) in northern Peru, to the subtropics (1000-2800 m) in central Peru, and temperate zone (2600-4300 m) in southern Peru and northern Chile. We find that the geographical characteristics of the greening strip do not match climate zones previously established by Köppen and Geiger. Greening and browning trends in the coastal deserts and the high Andes lie within well defined climatic and life zones, producing variable but identifiable trends. However, the distinct Pacific slope greening presents an unexpected distribution with respect to the regional Köppen-Geiger climate and life zones. This work provides insights on understanding the effects of climate change on Peru’s diverse ecosystems in highly sensitive, biologically rich arid and semi-arid environments on the Pacific slope.

Care coordination (CC) for children with special healthcare needs and medical complexity (CSHCN-CMC) is challenging, and medication management is especially difficult for providers, parents/caregivers, and patients alike. While numerous strategies for CC have been suggested and implemented, barriers to medication optimization remain. The report describes the creation of a pediatric clinical pharmacotherapy practice, related standard operating procedures to assure consistent application of screening tools and care provision through comprehensive medication management (CMM), and establishment of a collaborative practice agreement (CPA) to guide drug therapy delegation, monitoring, and modification. The methodology of a prospective case series is also presented to highlight drug therapy problems and their resolution in CSHCN-CMC. Future opportunities to expand the practice for engagement in population health management as well as prior authorization activities on behalf of physicians will be discussed.

A major task in Functional Time Series Analysis is measuring the dependence within and between processes, for which lagged covariance and cross-covariance operators have proven to be a practical tool in well-established spaces. This article deduces estimators and asymptotic upper bounds of the estimation errors for lagged covariance and cross-covariance operators of processes in Cartesian products of abstract Hilbert spaces for fixed and increasing lag and Cartesian powers. We allow the processes to be non-centered, and to have values in different spaces when investigating the dependence between processes. Also, we discuss features of estimators for the principle components of our covariance operators.

This study addresses the causal links between external factors and the main hydro-climatic variables. There is a gap in the literature on the description of a complete chain in addressing the structures of direct causal links of solar activity on the terrestrial variables. This is why, the present study uses the extensive facilities of the application of information theory in view of recent advances in different fields. Also, by other methods (e.g. neural networks) first are tested the existence non-linear links of solar-terrestrial influences on hydro-climate system. The results are promising related to the solar impact on terrestrial phenomena which is discriminant in space-time domain. The implications prove robust for determining the causal measure of climate variables under direct solar impact which makes it easier to consider solar activity in climate models, by appropriate parametrizations. This study found that hydro-climatic variables are sensitive to solar impact only for certain frequencies (periods) and these have a coherence with the Solar-Flux only for some lags of the Solar-Flux (in advance).

Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread worldwide. The Mexican government has implemented public safety measures to minimize the spread of the virus. In this paper, the authors use statistical models in two stages to estimate the total number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases per day at the state and national level in Mexico. Two types of models are proposed: first, a polynomial model of the growth for the first part of the outbreak until the inflection point of the pandemic curve and then a second nonlinear growth model is used to estimate the middle and the end of the outbreak. Model selection will be performed using Vuong’s test. The proposed models show overall fit similar to predictive models (e.g. time series, and machine learning); however, the interpretation of parameters is less complex for decision-makers and the residuals follow the expected distribution when fitting the models without autocorrelation being an issue.

This article explores the required amount of time series points from a high-speed traffic network to accurately estimate the Hurst exponent. The methodology consists in designing an experiment using estimators that are applied to time series, followed by addressing the minimum amount of points required to obtain accurate estimates of the Hurst exponent in real-time. The methodology addresses the exhaustive analysis of the Hurst exponent considering bias behavior, standard deviation, mean square error, and convergence using fractional Gaussian noise signals with stationary increases. Our results show that the Whittle estimator successfully estimates the Hurst exponent in series with few points. Based on the results obtained, a minimum length for the time series is empirically proposed. Finally, to validate the results, the methodology is applied to real traffic captures in a high-speed network based on the IEEE 802.3ab standard.

We derive new infinite series involving Fibonacci numbers and Riemann zeta numbers. The calculations are facilitated by evaluating linear combinations of polygamma functions of the same order at certain arguments.

Through the half-unit circle area computation using the integration of the corresponding curve power series representation, we deduce a slow converging positive infinite series to $\pi$. However, by studying the remainder of that series we establish sufficiently close inequalities with equivalent lower and upper bound terms allowing us to estimate, more precisely, how the series approaches $\pi$. We use the obtained inequalities to compute up to four-digit denominator, what are in this sense, the best rational numbers that can replace $\pi$. It turns out that the well-known convergents of the continued fraction of $\pi$, $22/7$ and $355/113$ called, respectively, Yuel\"{u} and Mil\"{u} in China are the only ones found. Thus we apply a similar process to find rational estimations to $\pi+e$ where $e$ is taken as the power series of the exponential function evaluated at $1$. For rational numbers with denominators less than $2000$, the convergent $920/157$ of the continued fraction of $\pi+e$ turns out to be the only rational number of this type.

Accurate inundation maps for flooded wetlands and rivers are a critical resource for their management and conservation. In this paper we automate a method (thresholding of the short-wave infrared band) for classifying inundation, using Landsat imagery and Google Earth Engine. We demonstrate the method in the Okavango Delta, northern Botswana, a complex case study due to the spectral overlap between inundated areas covered with aquatic vegetation and dryland vegetation classes on satellite imagery. Inundation classifications in the Okavango Delta have predominately been implemented on broad spatial resolution images. We present the longest time series to date (1990-2019) of inundation maps at high spatial resolution (30m) for the Okavango Delta. We validated the maps using image-based and in situ data accuracy assessments, with accuracy ranging from 91.5 - 98.1%. Use of Landsat imagery resulted in consistently lower estimates of inundation extent than previous studies, likely due to the increased number of mixed pixels that occur when using broad spatial resolution imagery, which can lead to overestimations of the size of inundated areas. We provide the inundation maps and Google Earth Engine code for public use.

The variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, and climatic conditions such as intense droughts, are known to impact vegetation health over southern Africa. Thus, understanding large-scale ocean–atmospheric phenomena like the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole/Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is important as these factors drive the variability of temperature and precipitation. In this study, 16 years (2002–2017) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra/Aqua 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), extracted and processed using JavaScript code editor in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform in order to analyze the response pattern of the oldest proclaimed nature reserve in Africa, the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), during the study period. The MODIS-enhanced vegetation index and burned area index were also analyzed for this period. The area-averaged Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA) model maximum temperature and precipitation were also extracted using the JavaScript code editor in the GEE platform. This procedure demonstrated a strong reversal of both the NDVI and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), leading to signs of a sudden increase of burned areas (strong BAI) during the strongest El Niño period. Both the Theilsen method and the Mann–Kendall test showed no significant greening or browning trends over the whole time series, although the annual Mann–Kendall test, in 2003 and 2014–2015, indicated significant browning trends due to the most recent strongest El Niño. Moreover, a multi-linear regression model seems to indicate a significant influence of both ENSO activity and precipitation. Our results indicate that the recent 2014–2016 drought altered the vegetation condition in the HiP. We conclude that it is vital to exploit freely available GEE resources to develop drought monitoring vegetation systems, and to integrate climate information for analyzing its influence on protected areas, especially in data-poor counties.

The new mineral species oyonite, ideally Ag3Mn2Pb4Sb7As4S24, has been discovered in the Uchucchacua polymetallic deposit, Oyon district, Catajambo, Lima Department, Peru, as very rare black metallic subhedral to anhedral crystals, up to 100 μm in length, associated with orpiment, tennantite/tetrahedrite, menchettiite, and other unnamed minerals of the system Pb-Ag-Sb-Mn-As-S, in calcite matrix. Its Vickers hardness (VHN100) is 137 kg/mm2 (range 132–147). In reflected light, oyonite is weakly to moderately bireflectant and weakly pleochroic from dark grey to a dark green. Internal reflections are absent. Reflectance values for the four COM wavelengths (Rmin, Rmax (%) (λ in nm)) are: 33.9, 40.2 (471.1); 32.5, 38.9 (548.3), 31.6, 38.0 (586.6); and 29.8, 36.5 (652.3). Electron microprobe analysis gave (in wt %, average of 5 spot analyses): Cu 0.76 (2), Ag 8.39 (10), Mn 3.02 (7), Pb 24.70 (25), As 9.54 (12), Sb 28.87 (21), S 24.30 (18), total 99.58 (23). On the basis of 20 cations per formula unit, the chemical formula of oyonite is Cu0.38Ag2.48Mn1.75Pb3.79Sb7.55As4.05S24.12. The main diffraction lines are (d in Å, hkl and relative intensity): 3.34 (-312; 40), 3.29 (-520; 100), 2.920 (-132; 40), 2.821 (-232; 70), 2.045 (004; 50). The crystal structure study revealed oyonite to be monoclinic, space group P21/n, with unit-cell parameters a = 19.1806 (18), b = 12.7755 (14), c = 8.1789 (10) Å, β = 90.471 (11)°, V = 2004.1 (4) Å3, Z = 2. The crystal structure was refined to a final R1 = 0.032 for 6272 independent reflections. Oyonite belongs to the Sb-rich members of the andorite homeotypic sub-series within the lillianite homologous series. The name oyonite is after the Oyon district, Lima Department, Peru, the district where the type locality (Uchucchacua mine) is located.

For a given set of plasma parameters, along a single series (Lyman, Balmer etc) the lines with higher principal quantum number(n) lines get progressively wider, closer to each other, and start merging for a certain critical n. In the present work four different codes(with further options) are used to calculate the entire Balmer series for moderate and high electron densities. Particular attention is paid to the relevant physics, such as the cutoff criteria, strong and penetrating electron collisions.

This paper is aimed at studying the temporal evolution of the surface displacements occurred over the past few years in the ocean-reclaimed platforms of the Shanghai megacity (China), which are mainly ascribable to consolidation processes of large dredger fills and alluvial deposits. With respect to previous analyses carried out over the same area, this work provides a joint multi-platform differential interferometry synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) analysis, based on the application of the advanced Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. This led us to retrieve long-term deformation time-series that are helpful for a better understanding of the on-going deformation phenomena. To this aim, we have exploited two sequences of SAR data collected by the ASAR/ENVISAT and by the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) sensors, respectively, spanning the whole time period from 2007 to 2016. Unfortunately, the large time gap (of about three years) existing between the available ASAR/ENVISAT and CSK datasets gave rise to additional difficulties for their combination. Nevertheless, this problem has been faced by benefiting from the knowledge of a time-dependent model describing the temporal evolution of the expected deformations affecting the Shanghai ocean-reclaimed platforms.

Long-range interactions are relevant for a large variety of quantum systems in quantum optics and condensed matter physics. In particular, the control of quantum-optical platforms promises to gain deep insights in quantum-critical properties induced by the long-range nature of interactions. From a theoretical perspective, long-range interactions are notoriously complicated to treat. Here, we give an overview of recent advancements to investigate quantum magnets with long-range interactions focusing on two techniques based on Monte Carlo integration. First, the method of perturbative continuous unitary transformations where classical Monte Carlo integration is applied within the embedding scheme of white graphs. This linked-cluster expansion allows to extract high-order series expansions of energies and observables in the thermodynamic limit. Second, stochastic series expansion quantum Monte Carlo which enables calculations on large finite systems. Finite-size scaling can then be used to determine physical properties of the infinite system. In recent years, both techniques have been applied successfully to one- and two-dimensional quantum magnets involving long-range Ising, XY, and Heisenberg interactions on various bipartite and non-bipartite lattices. Here, we summarise the obtained quantum-critical properties including critical exponents for all these systems in a coherent way. Further, we review how long-range interactions are used to study quantum phase transitions above the upper critical dimension and the scaling techniques to extract these quantum critical properties from the numerical calculations.

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are increasing in prevalence and severity globally and locally in the Great Lakes region. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce serious adverse human health effects due to the production of cyanotoxins from cyanobacteria. Common routes of exposure include recreational exposure (swimming, skiing, and boating), ingestion, and aerosolization of contaminated water sources. Cyanotoxins have been shown to adversely affect several major organ systems contributing to hepatotoxicity, gastrointestinal distress, and pulmonary inflammation. We present three pediatric case-reports that coincided with CyanoHABs exposure with a focus on presentation of illness, diagnostic work-up, and treatment of CyanoHAB-related illnesses. Potential cyanotoxin exposure occurred while swimming in the Maumee River and Maumee State Park in Northwest OH during the Summer months which coincide with peak CyanoHAB activity. Primary symptoms included generalized macular rash, fever, vomiting, diarrhea, and severe respiratory distress. Significant labs included leukocytosis and elevated C-reactive protein. All patients ultimately recovered with supportive care. Symptoms following potential cyanotoxin exposure coincide with multiple disease states representing an urgent need to develop specific diagnostic tests of exposure.

In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.

Pacing strategy refers to the distribution of effort and speed throughout the race to achieve optimal performance. The study aims to understand whether the choice of pacing strategy in swimming depends on the length of competitions and how sex, age, and performance level influence this strategy. Participants were the finalists of the 800-meter and 1500-meter freestyle events at the elite and junior world championships in 2022-2023. Race outcomes and pacing parameters were compared between the two distances and across different groups of swimmers. Swimmers in both distances did not break world records. Pacing strategy generally followed a U-shape with significant differences in the frequency and duration of speed changes between the two distances. The 800-meter exhibited more frequent changes in acceleration while the 1500-meter events generally followed a more consistent time series pattern. There were differences in pacing strategies between males and females and between junior and elite swimmers. Swimmers closer to world records showed more consistent pacing patterns compared to those farther from records. The study suggests that pacing strategies are influenced by race distance, sex, age, and performance level. The research highlights the complex interplay between physiological and psychological factors that shape a swimmer's decision-making during a race.

PM-Gati-Shakti Initiative, integration of ministries, including railways, ports, waterways, logistic infrastructure, mass transport, airports, and roads. Aimed at enhancing connectivity and bolstering the competitiveness of Indian businesses, the initiative focuses on six pivotal pillars known as "Connectivity for Productivity": comprehensiveness, prioritization, optimization, synchronization, analytical, and dynamic. In this study, we explore the application of these pillars to address the problem of "Maximum Demand Forecasting in Delhi." Electricity forecasting plays a very significant role in the power grid as it is required to maintain a balance between supply and load demand at all times, to provide a quality electricity supply, for Financial planning, generation reserve, and many more. Forecasting helps not only in Production Planning but also in Scheduling like Import / Export which is very often in India and mostly required by the rural areas and North Eastern Regions of India. As Electrical Forecasting includes many factors which cannot be detected by the models out there, We use Classical Forecasting Techniques to extract the seasonal patterns from the daily data of Maximum Demand for the Union Territory Delhi. This research contributes to the power supply industry by helping to reduce the occurrence of disasters such as blackouts, power cuts, and increased tariffs imposed by regulatory commissions. The forecasting techniques can also help in reducing OD and UD of Power for different regions. We use the Data provided by a department from the Ministry of Power and use different forecast models including Seasonal forecasts for daily data.

Accurate prediction of crop production is essential in effectively managing agricultural countries' food security and economic resilience. This study evaluates the performance of statistical and machine learning-based methods for large-scale crop production forecasting. We predict the quarterly production of 325 crops (including fruits, vegetables, cereals, non-food, and industrial crops) across 83 provinces in the Philippines. Using a comprehensive dataset of 10,949 time series over 13 years, we demonstrate that a global forecasting approach using a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture, the transformer, significantly outperforms traditional local forecasting approaches built on statistical and baseline methods. By leveraging cross-series information, our proposed way is scalable and works well even with time series that are short, sparse, intermittent, or exhibit structural breaks/regime shifts. The results of this study further advance the field of applied forecasting in agricultural production and provide a practical and effective decision-support tool for policymakers that oversee the farm sector on a national scale.

The global demand for energy has been steadily increasing due to population growth, urbanization, and industrialization. Numerous researchers worldwide are striving to create precise forecasting models for predicting energy consumption to manage supply and demand effectively. In this research, a time-series forecasting model based on multivariate multilayered long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed for forecasting energy consumption and tested using data obtained from commercial buildings in Melbourne, Australia: the Advanced Technologies Center, Advanced Manufacturing and Design Center, and Knox Innovation, Opportunity, and Sustainability Center buildings. This research specifically identifies the best forecasting method for subtropical conditions and evaluates its performance by comparing it with the most used methods at present, including LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, and linear regression. The proposed multivariate multilayered LSTM model was assessed by comparing mean average error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values with and without labeled time. Results indicate that the proposed model exhibits optimal performance with improved precision and accuracy. Specifically, the proposed LSTM model achieved a decrease in MAE by 30%, RMSE by 25%, and MAPE by 20% compared to the LSTM method. Moreover, it outperformed the bidirectional LSTM method with a reduction in MAE by 10%, RMSE by 20%, and MAPE by 18%. Furthermore, the proposed model surpassed linear regression with a decrease in MAE by 2%, RMSE by 7%, and MAPE by 10%. These findings highlight the significant performance increase achieved by the proposed multivariate multilayered LSTM model in energy consumption forecasting.

In this paper, we compile the fractional power series method and the Laplace transform to design a new algorithm for solving the fractional Volterra integro-differential equation. For that, we assume the Laplace power series (LPS) solution in terms of power q=1m,m∈Z+, where the fractional derivative of order α=qγ for which γ∈Z+. This assumption will help us to write the integral, the kernel, and the nonhomogeneous terms as a LPS with the same power. The recurrence relations for finding the series coefficients can be constructed using this form. To demonstrate the algorithm's accuracy, the residual error is defined and calculated for several values of the fractional derivative. Two strongly nonlinear examples are discussed to provide the efficiency of the algorithm. The algorithm gains powerful results for this kind of problem. Under Caputo meaning the obtained results are illustrated numerically, and graphically. Geometrically, the behavior of the solution declares that the changing of the fractional derivative parameter values' in their domain alters the style of the attained solution in a symmetrical meaning and fully coinciding to the ordinary derivative value'. From these simulations, the results report that the recommended novel algorithm is a straightforward, accurate, and superb tool to generate analytic-approximate solutions for Integral, and integro-differental equations of fractional order.

In recent years, additive manufacturing of products made from 5000 series alloys has grown in popularity for marine and automotive applications. In this work, we compare of mechanical properties characteristics of aluminum alloy 5056 material produced by wire-arc additive technology and rolling. We carried out tension tests under quasi-static loading and impact toughness tests under impact loading. The results show that upon similar ultimate tensile strength and ductility, material after additive manufacturing demonstrates decreased resistance against dynamic loading than material manufactured by the typical method of casting and rolling. This decrease in properties was explained through macro- and microstructure analysis.

Global models have been developed to tackle the challenge of forecasting sets of series that are related or share similarities, but not for heterogeneous datasets. Various methods of partitioning by relatedness have been introduced to enhance the similarities of the set, resulting in improved forecasting accuracy but often at the cost of a reduced sample size, which could be harmful. To shed light on how the relatedness between series impacts the effectiveness of global models in real-world demand forecasting problems we perform an extensive empirical study using the M5 competition dataset. We examined cross-learning scenarios driven by the product hierarchy commonly employed in retail planning, which allow global models to capture interdependencies across products and regions more effectively. Our findings show that global models outperform state-of-the-art local benchmarks by a considerable margin, indicating that they are not inherently more limited than local models and can handle unrelated time series data effectively. The accuracy of data partitioning approaches increases, as the size of the data pools and the models' complexity decrease. However, there is a trade-off between data availability and data relatedness. Smaller data pools lead to increased similarity among time series, making it easier to capture cross-product and cross-region dependencies, but this comes at the cost of a reduced sample, which may not be beneficial. Finally, it's worth noting that the successful implementation of global models for heterogeneous datasets can significantly impact forecasting practice.

During disaster response, clouds or darkness can prevent the use of optical images for detecting consequences of natural disasters, including landslides. In these situations, radar images can be used to detect changes more rapidly. However, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) backscatter intensity images are underutilized for landslide detection. Unfortunately, there remains a lack of understanding about how to interpret landslide signatures in SAR imagery. In this study, we investigate how the morphometric features and material properties of landslides, and preexisting land cover, control their expression in SAR backscatter intensity change images. Trends in the spatial and temporal signatures of over 1000 landslides in 30 diverse case studies are investigated, using multi-temporal composites and dense time-series of Sentinel-1 C-band SAR backscatter intensity data. The results show that the orientation of landslide surfaces relative to the sensor, pre-existing land cover, and the roughness of the landslide surface, determine whether landslides will produce an increase or decrease in backscatter intensity values. In certain cases, we can identify morphometric features of landslides (e.g. scarps, transit zone, deposits, ponding) and material properties. Generally, we see that landslides appear most clearly with a strong increase in intensity when they occur in herbaceous vegetation or non-vegetated ground surfaces, due to an increase in surface roughness. While in forested or densely vegetated areas, landslides produce a more complex signature with both decreases due to radar shadow and vegetation removal, and an adjacent edge of increased intensity due to double bounce and direct return from vertical tree trunks and convex edges. In most cases, rough deposits produce an increase in intensity, while smooth deposits (e.g. from mudslides) exhibit specular reflection, and thus show decreased values. Landslides are less visible in cases with pre-event very rough ground, or mixed vegetation conditions. The conceptual model developed can aid interpretation of landslides in SAR imagery, and provide domain knowledge needed to train models for automatic landslide detection.

The electric power distribution utility is responsible for providing energy to consumers in a continuous and stable way, failures in the electrical power system reduce the reliability indexes of the grid, directly harming its performance. For this reason, there is a need for failure prediction to reestablish power in the shortest possible time. Considering an evaluation of the number of failures over time, this paper proposes to perform a failure prediction during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil (2020) to verify the feasibility of using time series forecasting models for fault prediction. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model will be evaluated to obtain a forecast result that can be used by the electric power utility to organize the maintenance teams. The Wavelet transform shows to be promising in improving the predictive ability of the LSTM, making the Wavelet LSTM model suitable for the study at hand. The results show that the proposed approach has better results regarding the evaluation of the error in prediction and has robustness when a statistical analysis is performed.

Snow is a vital environmental parameter and dynamically responsive to climate change, particularly in mountainous regions. Snow cover can be monitored at variable spatial scales using Earth Observation (EO) data. Long-lasting remote sensing missions enable the generation of multi-decadal time series and thus the detection of long-term trends. However, there have been few attempts to use these to model future snow cover dynamics. In this study, we therefore explore the potential of such time series to forecast the Snow Line Elevation (SLE) in the European Alps. We generate monthly SLE time series from the entire Landsat archive (1985-2021) in 43 Alpine catchments. Positive long-term SLE change rates are detected, with the highest rates (5-8 m/y) in the Western and Central Alps. We utilize this SLE dataset to implement and evaluate seven uni-variate time series modeling and forecasting approaches. The best results were achieved by Random Forests, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.79 and a Mean Absolut Error (MAE) of 258 m, Telescope (0.76, 268 m), and seasonal ARIMA (0.75, 270 m). Since the model performance varies strongly with the input data, we developed a Combined forecast based on the best performing methods in each catchment. This approach was then used to forecast the SLE for the years 2022-2029. In the majority of the catchments the shift of the forecast median SLE level retained the sign of the long-term trend. In cases where a deviating SLE dynamic is forecast a discussion based on the unique properties of the catchment and past SLE dynamics is required. In the future, we expect major improvements in our SLE forecasting efforts by including external predictor variables in a multi-variate modeling approach.

Lumbar support exoskeletons with active and passive actuators are currently the cutting-edge technology for preventing back injuries in workers while lifting heavy objects. However, many challenges still exist in both types of exoskeletons, including rigid actuators, risks of human-robot interaction, high battery consumption, bulky design, and limited assistance. In this paper, the design of a compact, lightweight energy storage device combined with rotary series elastic (ES-RSEA) is proposed for use in a lumbar support exoskeleton to increase the level of assistance and exploit the human bioenergy during the two stages of the lifting task. ES takes the responsibility to store and release passive mechanical energy while RSEA provides excellent compliance and prevents injury from the human body's undesired movement. The experimental tests on the spiral spring showed excellent linear characteristics (above 99%) with an actual spring stiffness of 9.96 Nm/rad. The results demonstrate that ES-RSEA can provide maximum torque assistance in the ascent phase with 66.6 Nm while generating nearly 21 Nm of spring torque during descent without turning on the DC motor. Ultimately, the proposed design can maximize the energy storage of human energy, exploit the biomechanics of lifting tasks, and reduce the burden on human effort to perform lifting tasks.

We developed a novel approach in the field of spatiotemporal modelling, based on the spatialisation of time: the Timescape algorithm. It is especially aimed at sparsely distributed datasets in ecological research, whose spatial and temporal variability is strongly entangled. The algorithm is based on the definition of a spatiotemporal distance that incorporates a causality constraint and that is capable of accommodating the seasonal behaviour of the modelled variable as well. The actual modelling is conducted exploiting any established spatial interpolation technique, substituting the ordinary spatial distance with our Timescape distance, thus sorting, from the same input set of observations, those causally related to each estimated value at a given site and time. The notion of causality is expressed topologically and it has to be tuned for each particular case. The Timescape algorithm originates from the field of stable isotopes spatial modelling (isoscapes), but in principle it can be used to model any real scalar random field distribution.

The design flood concept (DF) provides for an essential tool in designing the hydraulic works, in defining the reservoir operation programs and for a reliable flood hazard identification. Under a simplified approach, the maximum discharge and the floods volume are statistically processed to reasonably define the DF. Yet, the integral hydrograph provides additional key temporal and quantitative details of important significance for flood management and particularly for the res-ervoirs operation and associated risks of failures. The procedure presented in this paper (as applied on a set of compatibly shaped hydrographs) involves the following key stages: (i) normalize the floods, (ii) define similar flood shape classes and (iii) evaluate the average dimensionless flood (ADF) for each class. The ADFs are finally transformed into a set of (DF)s. Many statistical distributions approximate acceptably the frequent values of the maximum discharges or the flood volumes, yet displaying a significant spread for medium or rare probabilities of exceedance (PE). This scattering, which can be explained by the epistemic uncertainty, defines an area of uncertainty both for measured and extrapolated values. In considering upper and lower values of the uncertainty in-tervals as limits for maximum discharges and flood volumes, then by combining them compatibly, a set of DFs - as completely defined hydrographs, with different shapes - results for each PE. The herein proposed procedure defines both one peak DF and multi-peaks DF. Subsequently, such DFs do assist water managers in examining and establishing tailored approaches for a variety of input hydrographs. Among the DFs that would correspond to a same PE, the most compact floods arise a special interest, for they are basic in defining the set of safe operation rules for hydraulic structures.

An earthquake of Mw6.4 hit the coastal zone of Albania on 26 November 2019, at 02:54:11 UTC. It was intensively felt at about 34km far away, in Tirana City, where damages and lives lost occurred. To emphasize a geomagnetic signature before the onset of this earthquake, the data collected on the interval 15 October–30 November 2019, at the Panagjurishte (PAG)-Bulgaria and Surlari (SUA)-Romania observatories are analyzed by using both the polarization parameter (BPOL)-time invariant in non-seismic conditions, becoming unstable before this seismic event, and the strain effect for geomagnetic signal identification. Consequently, BPOL time series and its standard deviations are performed for the both sites using ULF-FFT band-pass filtering. A statistical analysis, based on a standardized random variable equation, was applied to emphasize on the BPOL*(PAG) and ABS BPOL*(PAG) time series the anomalous signal’s singularity and, to differentiate the transient local anomalies due to Mw6.4earthquake, from the internal and external parts of the geomagnetic field, taken PAG observatory as reference. Finally, the ABS BPOL*(PAG-SUA) time series are obtained on the interval 1-30 November, 2019, where a geomagnetic signature greater than 2.0, was detected on 23 November and the lead time was 3 days before the onset of Mw6.4earthquake.

In this article, author performs computational analysis for the generalized zeta functions by using computational software Mathematica. To achieve the purpose recently obtained difference equations are used. These difference equations have a computational power to compute these functions accurately while they can not be computed by using their known integral represenations. Several authors investigated such functions and their analytic properties, but no work has been reported to study the graphical representations and zeors of these functions. Author performs numerical computations to evaluate these functions for different values of the involved parameters. Taylor series expansions are also presented in this research.

In the steel industries, workers are exposed to heat and ambient thermal stresses on a daily basis, leading to discomfort and limited performance. In this study, the main purpose is to investigate the effect of climate heat stress on the rate of accidents in the workplace for workers for 5 consecutive years. The data of this study were received without any sampling through the HSE Center for Steel Industry and meteorological data from 2015 to 2019 from Isfahan Meteorological station. The daily number of casualties among workers in the steel industry during 2015-2019 by adjusting seasonal patterns, months, effects of the day of the week and other meteorological factors on the average daily temperature using the studied model has a decreasing effect. Eviews software (version 8) was used to model and investigate the relationship between events and meteorological variables. The mean temperature was at least 40.2-2 and at most 70.34 ° C, respectively. In the time-series study for the main model, the number of accidents shows a direct relationship with the average temperature and wind speed. Climatic indices of humidity and rainfall have the least impact on accidents compared to temperature and wind speed. A strong correlation was shown between the increase in average ambient temperature and the rate of accidents over the past 5 years. Given the fundamental differences in studies of environmental exposure and wind speed over heat stress, further analysis in workers should be considered.

This paper presents a concise exploration of several analytical methods for extracting the parameters of the single-diode model (SDM) of a photovoltaic (PV) module under standard test conditions (STC). The paper investigates six methods and presents the detailed mathematical analysis leading to the development of each method. To evaluate the performance of these methods, MATLAB-based software has been developed and deployed to synthesize the results of each method when used to extract the SDM parameters of various PV test modules of different PV technologies. Similar software has also been developed to extract the same parameters using well-established numerical and iterative techniques. A comparison is subsequently made between the synthesized results and those obtained using numerical and iterative methods. The comparison indicates that in spite of the fact that analytical methods may involve fair amount of approximations, their accuracy can be comparable to that of their numerical and iterative counterparts, with the added advantage of significant reduction in computational complexity, and without the initialization and convergence difficulties, which are normally associated with numerical methods.

The differential transformation, an approach based on Taylor's theorem, is proposed as convenient for finding exact or approximate solution to the initial value problem with multiple Caputo fractional derivatives of generally non-commensurate orders. The multi-term differential equation is first transformed into a multi-order system and then into a system of recurrence relations for coefficients of formal fractional power series. The order of the fractional power series is discussed in relation to orders of derivatives appearing in the original equation. Application of the algorithm to an initial value problem results in a reliable and expected outcome.

A timely inventory of agricultural areas and crop types is an essential requirement for ensuring global food security. Satellite remote sensing has proven to be an increasingly more reliable tool to identify crop types. With the Copernicus program and its Sentinel satellites, a growing source of satellite remote sensing data is publicly available at no charge. Here we use joint Sentinel-1 radar and Sentinel-2 optical imagery to create a crop map for Belgium. To ensure homogenous radar and optical input across the country, Sentinel-1 12-day backscatter composites were created after incidence angle normalization, and Sentinel-2 NDVI images were smoothed to yield dekadal cloud-free composites. An optimized random forest classifier predicted the 8 crop types with a maximum accuracy of 82% and a kappa coefficient of 0.77. We found that a combination of radar and optical imagery always outperformed a classification based on single-sensor inputs, and that classification performance increased throughout the season until July, when differences between crop types are largest. Furthermore we showed that the concept of classification confidence derived from the random forest classifier provided insight in the reliability of the predicted class for each pixel, clearly showing that parcel borders have a lower classification confidence. We concluded that the synergistic use of radar and optical data for crop classification led to richer information increasing classification accuracies compared to optical-only classification. Further work should focus on object-level classification and crop monitoring to exploit the rich potential of combined radar and optical observations.

Smart grids require flexible data driven forecasting methods. We propose clustering tools for bottom-up short-term load forecasting. We focus on individual consumption data analysis which plays a major role for energy management and electricity load forecasting. The two first sections are dedicated to the industrial context and a review of individual electrical data analysis. We are interested in hierarchical time-series for bottom-up forecasting. The idea is to disaggregate the signal in such a way that the sum of disaggregated forecasts improves the direct prediction. The 3-steps strategy defines numerous super-consumers by curve clustering, builds a hierarchy of partitions and selects the best one minimizing a forecast criterion. Using a nonparametric model to handle forecasting, and wavelets to define various notions of similarity between load curves, this disaggregation strategy applied to French individual consumers leads to a gain of 16\% in forecast accuracy. We then explore the upscaling capacity of this strategy facing massive data and implement proposals using R, the free software environment for statistical computing. The proposed solutions to make the algorithm scalable combines data storage, parallel computing and double clustering step to define the super-consumers.

Most of existing fuzzy forecasting models partition historical training time series into fuzzy time series and build fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups to generate forecasting rules. The determination process of intervals is complex and uncertainty. In this paper, we present a novel fuzzy forecasting model based on high-order fuzzy-fluctuation trends and the fuzzy-fluctuation logical relationships of the training time series. Firstly, we compare each data with the data of its previous day in historical training time series to generate a new fluctuation trend time series(FTTS). Then, fuzzify the FTTS into fuzzy-fluctuation time series(FFTS) according to the up, equal or down range and orientation of the fluctuations. Since the relationship between historical FFTS and the fluctuation trend of future is nonlinear, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to estimate the required parameters. Finally, use the acquired parameters to forecast the future fluctuations. In order to compare the performance of the proposed model with that of the other models, we apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) time series datasets. The experimental results and the comparison results show that the proposed method can be successfully applied in stock market forecasting or such kinds of time series. We also apply the proposed method to forecast Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI) to verify its effectiveness and universality.

To eliminate the influence of the inconsistency on the cycle life and the available capacity of the battery pack, and improve the balancing speed, a novel inductor-based layered bidirectional equalizer (IBLBE) is proposed. The equalizer is composed of the bottom balancing circuits and the upper balancing circuits, and the two layer circuits both consist of a plurality of balancing sub-circuits, which allow the dynamic adjustment of equalization path and equalization threshold. The battery string is modularized by layered balancing circuits to realize fast active equalization, especially for long battery strings. By controlling the bottom balancing circuits, the individual cells can be balanced in each module. At the same time, the equalization between battery modules can be realized by controlling the upper balancing circuits. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed equalizer can achieve fast active equalization for a long battery string, and has the characteristics of multi balancing path, large balancing current and high accuracy. The advantages of the proposed equalizer are further verified by a comparison with existing active equalizer.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

Significant changes to the new National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) and the implementation of the “Double First-Class” (DFC) initiative in China are coincidentally in the national spotlight and fall within the same policy window. However, few studies have investigated the effects of the new NCEE on the quality of students in DFC universities. By leveraging the 2018-2022 college admission data from Shandong Province, these effects are examined via the interrupted time-series technique. Weighted rankings for liberal arts and science disciplines and the admission ranking coefficient are adopted to ensure comparability before and after the reform. The findings reveal that after the reform, the quality of students in both world-class universities and first-class discipline universities improved, with greater improvements seen in world-class universities. Focusing on urban differences, the quality of students in DFC universities located in second-tier cities is found to have experienced a higher increase as compared with students in the first-tier and new first-tier cities. In addition, the reform has had different impacts on the quality of students in different majors. Furthermore, when selecting postsecondary institutions, high-scoring students prioritize the quality of universities and majors over urban factors. Finally, the implications of the new NCEE in relation to a sustainable development of DFC universities for research, policy, and practice are further discussed.

The study of precipitation amount at different time scales constitutes an important issue in climate research and risk assessment. When dealing with daily totals, a frequent but sometimes underestimated problem is at what time the observation day begins. The choice of different starting times may lead to incompatibility between stations and incorrect identification of extreme events. In this work, the problem of temporal misalignment between precipitation datasets characterized by different starting time of the observation day is analyzed. The most widely used adjustment methods (1day and uniform shift) and two methods based on reanalysis (NOAA and ERA5) are evaluated in terms of temporal alignment, precipitation statistics and percentile distributions. As test series, the precipitation amount collected from 9 a.m. local time (09 LT) on the previous day to 09 LT on the target day (9-9 datasets) of the Padua and nearby stations in the period 1993-2022 have been selected. Results show that the reanalysis-based methods, in particular ERA5, outperform the others in temporal alignment, regardless the station. But, for the periods in which reanalysis data are not available, “1day” method, which shifts the daily amount back one calendar day, and “unif” method, which distributes uniformly the daily total from a 2-day moving window surrounding the target date, can be considered valid alternatives. On the other side, concerning the precipitation statistics, the reanalysis-based methods are not the best option, as they increase the precipitation frequency and reduce the mean value over wet days, NOAA much more than ERA5. Nevertheless, the uniform method provides a larger deviation from the original daily series. The use of the series of a station nearby the target one, which is mandatory in case of missing data, gives similar or better results than applying any adjustment method to the 9-9 series. General conclusions can hardly be drawn as they depend on the method and station. For the Padua dataset, the analysis was repeated at monthly and seasonal resolution. In general, the adjustment series show the most relevant changes in the precipitation statistics in summer and less temporal alignment with the original series in summer and autumn, the two seasons mainly affected by heavy rains in Padua. Finally, the percentiles distribution, analyzed for all the methods and stations, indicates that any adjustment method underestimates the percentile values, except ERA5. Only Legnaro, the station most correlated with Padua, gives results like ERA5.

The Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent implementation of lockdown measures have significantly impacted global electricity consumption, necessitating accurate energy consumption forecasts for optimal energy generation and distribution during a pandemic. In this study, we propose a new forecasting model called the Multivariate Multilayered LSTM with Covid-19 case injection ($\proposedModel$) for improved energy forecast during the next occurrence of a similar pandemic. We utilize data from commercial buildings in Melbourne, Australia during the Covid-19 pandemic to predict energy consumption and evaluate the model's performance against commonly used methods such as LSTM, Bi-LSTM, Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine and the previously published work of Multilayered LSTM (M-LSTM). The proposed forecasting model was analyzed using the following metrics of mean percent absolute error (MPAE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and $R^2$ score values. The model $\proposedModel$ demonstrates superior performance, achieving the lowest MPAE values of 0.061, 0.093, and 0.158 for data sets from 3 different buildings, respectively. Our results highlight the improved precision and accuracy of the model, providing valuable information for energy management and decision-making during the challenges posed by the occurrence of a pandemic like Covid-19 in the future.

Deep learning has been applied in many areas that have had a significant impact on applications that improves real-life challenges. The success of deep learning in a wide range of areas is due in part to the use of activation functions, which are particularly effective at solving non-linear problems. Activation functions are a key focus for researchers in artificial intelligence who aim to improve the performance of neural networks. This article provides a comprehensive explanation and comparison of different activation functions, with a focus on the arc tangent and its variations specifically. The paper presents experimental results that show that variations of the arc tangent using irrational numbers such as pi, the golden ratio, and Euler’s number, as well as a self-arctan function, produce promising results. Since we experimented with promising activation functions on two different problems, and datasets, we reached a result that different irrationals work well for different problems. In other words, arctan ϕ gives the best results mostly for multiclass classification and arctan e gives the best results for time series prediction problems. The paper focuses on a multiclass classification problem applied to the Reuters Newswire dataset and a time-series prediction problem on Türkiye energy trade value to show the impacts of activation functions.

Exact sequential state estimation of orbiting objects in space can be found by predicting the state using Fokker Planck Kolmogorov Equation (FPKE) and measurement correction using Bayes’ conditional/posterior Probability Density Function (PDF). Posterior PDF can be expressed as Gaussian density expanded in terms of Hermite polynomials named as Gram Charlier Series (GCS). This research is an extension of an earlier work on second order linearized solution to nonlinear Bayesian filtering using Taylor series and third order GCS expansion of posterior PDF. In this new extension, Bayes’ posterior PDF is approximated by a mixture of GCS functions for which the parameters are propagated using linear propagation theory. The update of weights of different components of GCS mixture model uses the FPKE error as feedback to adapt for the amplitude of different GCS components while solving a quadratic programming problem earlier used for Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) PDF. Proposed filtering method is applied on tracking of space debris. The simulation results for the filter shows performance is moderately better than single GCS filter, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Gaussian Sum Filter (GSF) under space debris’ highly uncertain initial conditions and sparse measurement availability.

Satellite Crop Detection technologies are focused on detection of different types of crops on the field in the early stage before harvesting. Crop detection is usually done on a time series of satellite data by classification of the desired fields. Currently, data obtained from Remote Sensing (RS) are used to solve tasks related to the identification of the type of agricultural crops, also modern technologies using AI methods are desired in the postprocessing part. In this challenge Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time series data were used due to their periodic availability. Our focus was to develop methodology for classification of time series of Sentinel 2 and Sentinel 1 data and compare how accuracy of classification can be increased, but also how to guarantee availability of data. We analyse phenology of single crops and on the basis of this analysis we started to provide crop classification. Original crop classifications were made from Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) layers made from Sentinel-2 time-series data and then we added also . To increase accuracy we also integrate into the process parcel borders and provide classification of fields..

We examine a family of linear partial differential equations both singularly perturbed in a complex parameter and singular in complex time at the origin. These equations entail forcing terms which combine polynomial and logarithmic type functions in time and that are bounded holomorphic on horizontal strips in one complex space variable. A set of sectorial holomorphic solutions are built up by means of complete and truncated Laplace transforms w.r.t time and parameter and Fourier inverse integral in space. Asymptotic expansions of these solutions relatively to time and parameter are investigated and two distinguished Gevrey type expansions in monomial and logarithmic scales are exhibited.

In 2019, Chinese government implemented the first round of National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) pilot (so-called "4+7" policy) in mainland China, achieved a prominent price reduction of 52% on average for 25 bidding winning products. Under cross-price elasticity theory, the price behavior of pharmaceutical enterprises for policy-related drugs might change. This study used drug purchasing data from the Centralized Drug Procurement Survey in Shenzhen 2019, and applied single-group Interruption Time Series (ITS) design to examine the impact of "4+7" policy on the drug price index (DPI) of policy-related drugs. The ITS analysis showed that the DPI of winning (-0.183 per month, p&lt;0.0001) and non-winning (-0.034 per month, p=0.046) products significantly decreased after the implementation of "4+7" policy. No significant difference was found for the immediate change of DPI for alternative drugs (p=0.537), while a significant decrease in change trend was detected in the post-"4+7" policy period (-0.003 per month, p=0.014). The DPI of the overall policy-related drugs significantly decreased (-0.261 per month, p&lt;0.0001) after "4+7" policy. These findings indicate that the price behavior of pharmaceutical enterprises changed under NCDP policy, while the price linkage effect is still limited. It is necessary to further expand the scope of centralized purchased drugs and strengthen the monitoring of related drugs regarding price change and consumption structure.

The spatiotemporal variability of vegetation in the Middle East was investigated for the period 2001–2019 using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 16-day/500 m composites of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; MOD13A1). The results reveal a strong increase in the NDVI coverage in the Middle East during the study period (R = 0.75, p-value = 0.05). In Egypt, the annual coverage exhibits the strongest positive trend (R = 0.99, p-value = 0.05). In Turkey, both the vegetation coverage and density increased from 2001 to 2019, which can be attributed to the construction of some of the biggest dams in the Middle East, such as the Atatürk and Ilisu dams. Significant increases in the annual coverage and maximum and average NDVI in Saudi Arabia are due to farming in the northern part of the country for which groundwater and desalinated seawater are used. The results of this study suggest that the main factors affecting the vegetation coverage in the Middle East are governmental policies. These policies can have a positive effect on the vegetation coverage in some countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, and Turkey.

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

Undoubtedly the Wageningen B-screw Series is the most widely used systematic propeller series. It is very popular to preselect propeller dimensions during the preliminary design stage before performing a more thorough optimization, but in the smaller end of the market it is often used to merely select the final propeller. Over time the originally measured data sets were faired and scaled to a uniform Reynolds number of 2·10⁶ to increase the reliability of the series. With the advent of the computer, polynomials for the thrust and torque values were calculated based on the available data sets. The measured data are typically presented in the well-known open-water curves of thrust and torque coefficients K_T and K_Q versus the advance coefficient J. Changing the presentation from these diagrams to efficiency maps reveals some unsuspected and surprising behaviours, such as multiple optima when optimizing for efficiency or even no optimum at all for certain conditions. These artefacts get more pronounced at higher pitch to diameter ratios and low blade numbers. The present work builds upon the paper presented by the author at the AMT’17 and smp’19 conferences and now includes the extended efficiency maps, as suggested by Danckwardt, for all propellers of the Wageningen B-screw Series.

We propose a novel tensor-based formalism for inferring causal structures from time series. An information theoretical analysis of transfer entropy (TE), shows that TE results from transmission of information over a set of communication channels. Tensors are the mathematical equivalents of these multi-channel causal channels. A multi-channel causal channel is a generalization of a discrete memoryless channel (DMC). We consider a DMC as a single-channel causal channel. Investigation of a system comprising three variables shows that in our formalism, bivariate analysis suffices to differentiate between direct and indirect relations. For this to be true, we have to combine the output of multi-channel causal channels with the output of single-channel causal channels. We can understand this result when we consider the role of noise. Subsequent transmission of information over noisy channels can never result in less noisy transmission overall. This implies that a Data Processing Inequality (DPI) exists for transfer entropy.

Advances in DNA sequencing technology are facilitating genomic analyses of unprecedented scope and scale, widening the gap between our abilities to generate and fully exploit biological sequence data. Comparable analytical challenges are encountered in other data-intensive fields involving sequential data, such as signal processing, in which dimensionality reduction (i.e., compression) methods are routinely used to lessen the computational burden of analyses. In this work we explore the application of dimensionality reduction methods to numerically represent high-throughput sequence data for three important biological applications of virus sequence data: reference-based mapping, short sequence classification and de novo assembly. Despite using highly compressed sequence transformations to accelerate the processes, our sequence processing approach yielded comparable accuracy to existing approaches, and are ideally suited for sequences originating from highly diverse virus populations. We demonstrate the application of our methodology to both synthetic and real viral pathogen sequence data. Our results show that the use of highly compressed sequence approximations can provide accurate results and that useful analytical performance can be retained and even enhanced through appropriate dimensionality reduction of sequence data.

Inverse Sumudu transform multiple shifting properties are used to design methodology for solving ordinary differential equations. Then algorithm applied to solve Whittaker and Zettl equations to get their new exact solutions and profiles which shown through Maple complex graphicals. Table of inverse Sumudu transforms for elementary functions given for supporting the differential equations solving using inverse Sumudu transform.

In the paper, the authors discover several series identities involving the Catalan numbers, the Catalan function, the Riemanian zeta function, and the alternative Hurwitz zeta function.

This article shortly introduces Gaussian processes as a new approach for modelling time series in the field of blazar physics. In the second part of the paper, recent results from an application of GP modelling to the multi-wavelength light curves of the blazar PKS 1502+106 are discussed.

Transformation formula under the action of a general linear fractional transformation for generalized Dedekind eta-function has been a subject of intensive study, Rademacher, Dieter, Meyer et al. However, the (Hecke) modular relation structure has not been recognized until the work of Goldstein-de la Torre, and streamlining the classical proofs in the modular relation will reveal the meaning hidden in those works. Our main aim is to elucidate the works of these researchers in the context of modular relations.

Wildfires are important natural drivers of forest stands dynamics, strongly influencing on their natural regeneration and ecosystem services. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal burnt area (BA) patterns over the period 2000–2022 in the Middle Volga region of the Russian Federation on the base of remote sensing time series, considering the impact of cli-matic factors on forest fires. The temporal trends were assessed with the Mann-Kendall nonpara-metric statistical test and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator using the LandTrendr algorithm on the Google Earth Platform (GEE). The accuracy assessment indicated a high overall accuracy (> 84%) and F-score value (> 82%) for forest burnt area detection as evaluated against 581 test sites of ref-erence data. The results revealed that the fire occurrences in the region were mainly irregular with the highest frequency of 7.3 over a 22-year period. The total forest BA was about 280 thousand ha, which equals to 1.7% of the land surface area or 4.0% of the total forested area under study in the Middle Volga region. The coniferous forest stands are the most fire-prone ecosystems accounting for 59.0 % of the total BA; deciduous stands accounts for 25.1%; and insignificant fire occurrences were registered in young forests and shrub lands. On a seasonal scale, temperature generally has a greater impact on the BA than precipitation and wind speed.

A distinction is made between data rescue (i.e., copying, digitizing and archiving) and data recovery that implies deciphering, interpreting and transforming early instrumental readings and their metadata to obtain high-quality datasets in modern units. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes: palaeography and knowledge of Latin and other languages to read the handwritten logs and additional documents; history of science to interpret the original text, data e metadata within the cultural frame of the 17th, 18th and early 19th century; physics and technology to recognize bias of early instruments or calibrations, or to correct for observational bias; astronomy to calculate and transform the original time in canonical hours that started from twilight. The liquid-in-glass thermometer was invented in 1641 and the earliest temperature records started in 1654. Since then, different types of thermometers were invented, based on the thermal expansion of air or selected thermometric liquids with deviation from linearity. Reference points, thermometric scales, calibration methodologies were not comparable, and not always adequately described. Thermometers had various locations and exposures, e.g., indoor, outdoor, on windows, gardens or roofs, facing different directions. Readings were made only one or a few times a day, not necessarily respecting a precise time schedule: this bias is analysed for the most popular combinations of reading times. The time was based on sundials and local Sun, but the hours were counted starting from twilight. In 1789-90 Italy changed system and all cities counted hours from their lower culmination (i.e., local midnight), so that every city had its local time; in 1866, all the Italian cities followed the local time of Rome; in 1893, the whole Italy adopted the present-day system, based on the Coordinated Universal Time and the time zones. In 1873, when the International Meteorological Committee (IMO) was founded, later transformed in World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a standardization of instruments and observational protocols was established, and all data became fully comparable. In the early instrumental period, from 1654 to 1873, the comparison, correction and homogenization of records is quite difficult, mainly because of the scarcity or even absence of metadata. This paper deals about this confused situation, discussing the main problems, but also the methodologies to recognize missing metadata, distinguish indoor from outdoor readings; correct and transform early datasets in unknown or arbitrary units into modern units; finally, in which cases it is possible to reach the quality level required by WMO. The focus is to explain the methodology needed to recover early instrumental records, i.e., the operations that should be performed to interpret, correct, and transform the original raw data into a high-quality dataset of temperature, usable for climate studies.

Comparisons of power flows and efficiencies in two structurally quite similar cylindrical series-parallel planetary gear systems (PGSs) were performed in three separate parts of this paper. Each of these single degree of freedom (DoF) systems consists of three different 2KH subsystems connected in series-parallel. The main goal was to prove that apart from complex, structurally and dynamically coupled PGSs, there are also complex and only structurally coupled PGSs, in which the phenomenon of power flow circulation inside closed loops does not occur. Such a half-coupled type of PGS is herein called pseudo-coupled. Therefore, Part I discusses in detail the geometry, kinematics and statics of coupled PGSs in order to determine power flow paths. A comparison of the directions of power flow in both types of PGSs can be made in Part II after determining the power flow paths in the second planetary gear in a similar way. The directions of power flow in both types of PGSs were determined in a relatively simple way, thanks to the distinction between active and passive torques and thus active and passive shafts of individual subsystems. The efficiency comparison made in Part III will show whether power circulation has an influence on the efficiency value, at least in these two types of PGSs.

In this paper, Akbari-Ganji's and Taylor series methods are applied to find analytical solutions to nonlinear differential equations that arise in an immobilized-cell photobioreactor. Approximate analytical expressions for substrate and product concentrations and both liquid and gas phases for various parameter values are derived using both methods. Efficiency, accuracy, and convergence of the two methods relative to highly accurate numerical methods are investigated to establish reliable profiles of these two methods for solving general nonlinear equations that model various physical phenomena. Numerical simulations are presented to validate the theoretical investigations.

The object of this paper is the analysis of isotropic rectangular thin plates supported (simply supported or clamped) along two opposite edges whereby the other edges have arbitrary support conditions; the plates are subjected to external bending moments, concentrated or distributed, and perpendicular to the supported edges. The standard approach to this problem is to replace the bending moment with a couple of forces infinitely close and to use the known expressions of efforts and deformations for the plate subjected to concentrated forces; the results are then related to the first derivatives of those efforts and deformations with respect to the position of application of the load. In this study, the external bending moment was expanded into a Fourier series, leading to a distributed external bending moment, and the boundary conditions and continuity equations were applied. Various types of rectangular plates were analyzed, as well as plates of infinite length whose results were identical to those in the literature. In addition, results for cantilever plates of infinite length were presented.

This paper aims to analyze arbitrarily loaded isotropic rectangular thin plates with two opposite edges supported (simply supported or clamped), from which one or both are clamped, and the other edges have arbitrary support conditions. Rectangular thin plates with two opposite edges simply supported are routinely analyzed using for the deflection the simple trigonometric series of Lévy or the double trigonometric series of Navier, while the loads are expanded in Fourier series. In this paper the flexibility method (or force method) of the linear beam theory was applied whereby the unknowns were the bending moments along the opposite edges; in this regard, the primary system was the plate simply supported along the above-mentioned opposite edges and subjected to the external loads, system solved using the Lévy solution, and the redundant system was the plate simply supported along the opposite edges and subjected to bending moments along those edges. In the redundant system, a modified Lévy solution was introduced to account for the edge moments. The compatibility equations (vanishing of the slopes at selected positions of the opposite edges) were set to determine the unknowns and so the efforts in the plate. The results obtained were in good agreement with the exact results.