This study presents results of the sediment yield Watershed of Ribeirão do Pinhal, in the city of Limeira, São Paulo, conducted under three different scenarios of the land use: 1 – land use in 2008, 2 – with reforested protection areas, 3 – the increase sugarcane's areas over grassland and citrus areas. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used as a hydro-sedimentological modeling tool to simulate these scenarios. This watershed was divided into five sub-watersheds according to the prevalent use, and adjustments were made in soils database parameters and cultures that are in SWAT, to adapt it to the Brazilian reality. Was used climatological data of eight years (2007-2014) for this modeling. Different sediment yield could be noted in the different types of land use, sub-watersheds and scenarios. The uses that presented higher sediment yield, in ascending order, were: natural vegetation, sugarcane, citrus, annual crop e grassland. Sub-watershed number 2 had the highest sediment yield (~10Mg.ha^-1), while the sub-watershed 5, the lowest (5.51Mg.ha^-1). This remained in the three scenarios. Overall, scenario 2 had the lowest sediment yield (7.74Mg.ha^-1). Scenario 1 had 8.37 Mg.ha^-1 and scenario 3, 8.58Mg.ha^-1. SWAT was considered efficient to simulate the sediment yield by scenarios and by use, combining different thematic and tabular data when performing the necessary adjustments on their original database.

The megacities´ sewage creates socioeconomic dependence related to water availability in the nearby zones, especially in countries with hydric stress. The present paper studies the water balance progression of realistic scenarios from 2005 to 2050 in the Mezquital Valley, the receptor of Mexico City untreated sewage since 1886, allowing agriculture irrigation in unsustainable conditions. WEAP model calculated the water demand and supply. Validation was performed with outflows data of the Tula River and simulated three scenarios: 1st) Steady-state based on inertial growth rates, 2nd) Transient scenario concerned climate change outcomes, with minor influence in surface water and hydric stress in 2050; 3rd) Transient scenario perturbed with a planned reduction of 36% in the imported wastewater and the start-up of a massive Water Treatment Plant, allowing drip and sprinkler irrigation since 2030. In the 2005-2017 period, 59% of the agriculture depended on the flood irrigation with megacity sewage. The water balance scenarios evaluated the sectorial supply of the ground and superficial water. Drip irrigation would reduce 42% of agriculture demands, but still does not grant the downflow hydroelectric requirements, aggravated by the lack of wastewater supply since 2030. This research alerts about how present policies compromise future Valley demands.

Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core debate has concerned the relationship between the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In recent years, a debate on economic growth versus degrowth has been going on discussing whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether economic degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article has used the Sustainability Window, or ‘SuWi’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies, as upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP, that could be deemed in line with environmental and social sustainability. All theoretically possible scenario paths of development are considered by combining the economic, environmental, and social dimensions, with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. In moving to sustainability analysis through SuWi it is noted that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically 'sustainable’, and only if adhering to strict conditions. Two of the hypothesised scenarios involve economic growth and two of economic degrowth. The approach, including calculation formulas, has many potential uses in providing analysis and support to 21st century sustainability policymaking, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Climate change is a threat to mining and other industries, especially those involving water supply and management by inducing or amplifying some climatic parameters such as changes in precipitation regimes and temperature extremes. Using the latest NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets, this study quantifies the level of climate change that may affect the development of two mine sites (Site1 and Site2) in northeast Kazakhstan. The study analyses the daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature a of a number of global circulation models (GCM) over three future time periods, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s, under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, against the baseline period 1981- 2014. The analyses revealed that: (1) Both maximum and minimum temperature will increase under both SSP in those time periods, with the rate of change for minimum temperature being higher than maximum temperature. (2) The mean annual precipitation will increase by an average rate of 7% and 10.5% in 2040s for SSP245 and 17.5% and 7.5% for SSP585 in 2080s at Site1 and Site2, respectively. It is also observed that summer months will experience drier condition whilst all other months will increase in precipitation. (3) The values of 24-hour precipitation with 10-year return period will also increase under both SSP scenarios and future time periods for most of the studied GCM and at both mine sites. These predicted changes should be considered as design criteria adjustments for project water supply and water management structures.

Nowadays, hydropower is the principal renewable; however, climate change increases extreme events such as floods, droughts, erosion, and sedimentation of rivers that produce uncertainty in hydroelectric generation. Thus, this document aims to analyze the climate change projections in the hydropower systems of Ecuador based on data from 14 projects studying the scenarios ac-cording to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study period starts from 2010 to 2020 with historical data, collects the tendency, defines a database year, and then projects the scenarios to 2050. The quantitative methodology uses a statistic on Ecuador's hydropower obtained inflow time series to calculate the deviation over the last years and develop a model to simulate future generation. The results show that the hydropower in Ecuador is expected to decrease considerably through 2050 due to meteorological changes. In this calculation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the selected scenarios show a reduction in SSP5 of 11.5%, SP2 of 16.2%, and SSP4 of 18.2% to 2050, concluding that the oppor-tunities for hydroelectric production facing climate change are variable, but the challenges are broad. In Ecuador, the projections of hydropower plants represent a sensitive issue of their re-ductions, especially knowing that the country had an energy grid in 2020 that depended on 87% of hydroelectric production.

The paper presents the open source tool climdex-kit which includes utilities to compute, analyze and visualize climate indices based on the input data, target domain and temporal extent defined by the user. It is intended to support researchers as well as practitioners and decision makers to derive, handle and interpret meaningful information for climate change studies and sectoral applications. It currently includes the computation of 30 indices based on temperature and precipitation, describing both mean and extreme climate conditions, and it is designed to work with climate model projections. The tool is written in Python and integrates utilities from the well-established Climate Data Operators (CDO) and NetCDF Operators (NCO) libraries. The specific utilities for selecting, aggregating and visualizing data are thought to help users to produce tailored results improving understanding and communication of future climate change. In order to show the functionalities of the package as well as its potential integration in regional climate services, climdex-kit was applied to an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections up to 2100 for the region Trentino – South Tyrol (north-eastern Italian Alps). The projections for a selection of indices accounting for extreme temperature and precipitation conditions were derived and different visualization choices discussed. The package climdex-kit is developed in a way that allows users to implement additional routines for calculating other indices as well as for easily adapting the routines to handle with different data types and spatio-temporal targets defined by the specific application. Effective climate services can in fact be developed only if flexible tools and customizable climate information are integrated with a clear understanding of data features and limitations.

The paper proposes a mechanism for the impact of changes in the key rate on the volume of newly issued loans. The volume depends on the price (interest rates on loans), and the price depends on the key rate and the actual consumption of loans in the previous period (generalized cobweb cycle). The model was estimated by a Kalman filter, adequacy was confirmed by simulation. It is possible to forecast the average rate on loans for a month in advance according to the information published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CB). By playing various scenarios for changing the key rate, it was found that in quiet periods of economic development, the usual laws of supply and demand operate in the loan market and by raising the key rate, you can reduce inflation. In the turbulent (overheated) state of the economy, an increase in the key rate can, on the contrary, provoke an increase in the issuance of loans and unconventional manipulations with the key rate are required.

Road freight transportation is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transportation accounts for significant emissions. To reach the UN sustainability goals, sustainable road freight transportation is key. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and AI provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transportation. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question “How will digitalization change the road freight transportation landscape?” is addressed by developing four different future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. For each of the four scenarios the impacts on the road freight transportation sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to reach a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios an increase in vehicle kilometers travelled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios significant increases of recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transportation landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.

Opening gated-communities (GCs) has been widely discussed for urban inclusion and revitalization. With the policies of opening GCs being promoted in China, quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of the potential benefits is heavily needed. Taking Shanghai as an example, this study quantifies and analyzes the accessibility benefits and risks of opening GCs with factors including GC types, opening levels, travel modes, and travel destinations considered. We found that (1) opening GCs can bring 50m+ accessibility gains to 17% and 52% of the residents in Moderately Opening (MO) and Completely Opening (CO) scenarios, respectively. (2) Cycling benefits more than walking in all cases and scenarios. (3) For different GCs, conventional GCs have fewer benefits in MO but more in CO than the newly-established one. For different facilities, trips to bus stations demonstrate the largest accessibility gains. (4) The accessibility benefit of a residential building is highly determined by its closeness to the gates and relative location in the block. (5) Only 1% and 5-7% of external trips may penetrate the opened communities in MO and CO scenarios, respectively, which are far less than both expectation and the benefits. These findings precipitate at least two policy implications in China.

Despite the partial disclosure of driving scenario knowledge graphs, they still fail to meet the comprehensive needs of intelligent connected vehicles for driving knowledge. Current issues include the high complexity of pattern layer construction, insufficient accuracy of information extraction and fusion, and limited performance of knowledge reasoning models. To address these challenges, a hybrid knowledge graph method was adopted in the construction of the Driving Scenario Knowledge Graph (DSKG). Firstly, core concepts in the field were systematically sorted and classified, laying the foundation for the construction of a multi-level classified knowledge graph top-level ontology. Subsequently, by deeply exploring and analyzing the Traffic Genome data, 34 entities and 51 relations were extracted and integrated with the ontology layer, achieving the expansion and updating of the knowledge graph. Then, in terms of knowledge reasoning models, an analysis of the training results of the TransE, Complex, Distmult, and Rotate models in the entity linking prediction task of DSKG revealed that the Distmult model performed the best in metrics such as hit rate, making it more suitable for inference in DSKG. Finally, a standardized and widely applicable Driving Scenario Knowledge Graph was proposed. The DSKG and related materials have been publicly released for use by industry and academia.

As we all know, many more dynamic objects appear almost continuously in real world, which are immensely able to impair the performance of the majority of vision-based SLAM systems that are based on the static-world assumption. In order to improve the robustness and accuracy of visual SLAM in the high dynamic environment, a real-time and robust stereo SLAM system for dynamic scenes was proposed. To weaken influences of dynamic content, the moving object detection method was put forward in our visual odometry, then the semantic segmentation network was combined into our stereo SLAM to extract pixel-level contours of dynamic objects. Then influences of dynamic objects were extremely weaken and the performance of our system was increased markedly in dynamic, complex and crowed city spaces. Experiment with both on KITTI Odometry dataset and in a real-life scene, the results show that our method can dramatically decrease the tracking error or drift, improve the robustness and stability of our stereo SLAM in high dynamic outdoor scenarios.

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) is considered as a challenge in environments with many moving objects. This paper proposes a novel LiDAR Inertial Odometry framework, ID-LIO, for dynamic scenes that builds on LIO-SAM. To detect the pointclouds on the moving objects, a dynamic point detection method is integrated, which is based on pseudo occupancy along the spatial dimension. Then, we present a dynamic points propagation and removal algorithm based on indexed points to remove more dynamic points in the local map along the temporal dimension and update the status of the point features in keyframes. In the LiDAR odometry module, a delay removal strategy is proposed for history keyframes and the sliding window-based optimization includes the LIDAR measurement with dynamic weights to reduce error from dynamic points in keyframes. We perform the experiments both on the public low dynamic and highly dynamic data set. The results show that the proposed method greatly increases the localization accuracy in high dynamic environments. And the ATE(Absolute Trajectory Error) average RMSE((Root Mean Square Error) of our ID-LIO can be improved by 67% and 85% in the UrbanLoco-CAMarketStreet dataset and UrbanNav-HK-Medium-Urban-1 dataset respectively when compared with LIO-SAM.

Climate change is expected to increase the occurrence of droughts with the hydrology in alpine systems being largely determined by snow dynamics. In this paper we propose a methodology to assess the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts taking into account the dynamics of the snow cover area (SCA). We will also analyse the correlation between these types of droughts. We have generated ensembles of local climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCMs) representative of potential future conditions. We have considered several sources of uncertainty: different historical climate databases, simulations obtained with several RCMs, and some statistical downscaling techniques. We then used a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to generate multiple climatic series preserving the characteristics of the ensemble scenario. These were simulated within a cellular automata (CA) model to generate multiple SCA future series. They were used to calculate multiple series of meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) and a novel hydrological drought index (Standardized Snow Cover Index (SSCI)). A linear correlation analysis was applied to both types of drought to analyse how they propagate and the time delay between them. We applied the proposed methodology to the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain) where we estimated a general increase in meteorological and hydrological drought magnitude and duration for the horizon 2071-2100 under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The SCA droughts also revealed a significant increase in drought intensity. The meteorological drought propagation to SCA droughts is reflected in an immediate or short time (1 month), obtaining significant correlations in lower accumulation periods of drought indices (3 and 6 months). This will allow us to obtain information about meteorological drought from SCA deficits and vice versa.

This paper presents an efficient topology optimization approach considering fail-safe requirements in the framework of the solid isotropic material with penalization method. Existing methods either are computationally extremely expensive or do not consider fail-safe requirements in the optimization. The current approach not only obtains the fail-safe optimization structure, but also significantly improves the computational efficiency of fail-safe topology optimization. In this method, the worst-case compliance is considered to minimize as the optimization objective, using the Kreisselmeier–Steinhauser function to approximate the non-differentiable max-operator. The sensitivity is derived by the adjoint method, and a general fail-safe optimality criteria method is developed to update design variables. The damage scenarios greatly reduces in the process of failsafe strategy optimization by employing the density-based filter method. Finally, the effectiveness and computational efficiency of this method for fail-safe optimization is verified by several numerical examples.

In foggy weather scenarios, the scattering and absorption of light by water droplets and particulate matter cause object features in images to become blurred or lost, presenting a significant challenge for target detection in autonomous driving vehicles. To tackle this problem, this study proposes a foggy weather detection method, YOLOv5s-Fog, based on the YOLOv5s framework. The model enhances the feature extraction and expression capabilities of YOLOv5s by introducing a novel target detection layer, SwinFocus. Additionally, this research incorporates decoupled head into the model and replaces the conventional non-maximum suppression method with Soft-NMS. Experimental results demonstrate that these improvements effectively enhance the detection performance for blurry objects and small targets in foggy weather conditions. Compared to the baseline model YOLOv5s, YOLOv5s-Fog achieves a 5.4% increase in mAP on the RTTS dataset, reaching 73.4%. This method provides technical support for rapid and accurate target detection in adverse weather conditions, such as foggy weather, for autonomous driving vehicles.

The specific demands inherent to supply chains built upon large IoT systems, make a must the design of a coordinated framework for cyber resilience provisioning intended to guaranteeing trusted supply chains of ICT systems, built upon distributed, dynamic, potentially insecure and heterogeneous ICT infrastructures. As such, the proposed solution is envisioned to deal with the whole supply chain system components, from the IoT ecosystem to the infrastructure connecting them, addressing security and privacy functionalities related to risks and vulnerabilities management, accountability and mitigation strategies as well as security metrics and evidence-based security assurance. In this paper we present FISHY, as a preliminary designed architecture, designed to orchestrate both existing and beyond state-of-the-art security appliances in composed ICT scenarios and also leveraging capabilities of programmable network and IT infrastructure through seamless orchestration and instantiation of novel security services, both in real-time and proactively. The paper also includes a thorough business analysis to go far beyond the technical benefits of a potential FISHY adoption as well as three real-world use cases where to strongly support the envisioned benefits of a FISHY adoption.

This paper is an attempt to present a COVID-19 prediction model for India. Lockdown plays an important role in the arrest of community spread of the disease. This was evident from the study of other countries such as Russia, Belgium and Germany, where peak cases were recorded within a month of the imposition of lockdown, that it showed an immediate positive effect. However, in India, even after 65 days of lockdown, there is no decrease in the number of daily new cases reported. There were many models prepared for India and almost all of them were proven wrong by the increase in the number of cases. The model in this paper is prepared using the COVID-19 trend in other countries, population density and the pandemic bell curve. Based on the available data until 24^th May 2020, two scenarios have been presented. In one, the peak shall be obtained when the number of daily new cases per million reaches 190 and in the second when the daily new cases per million reach 724. One model predicts the number of cases to reach 1 million by mid-July 2020. The other model predicts the number of cases to peak by mid-July with the total cases reaching 20 million. The predicted cases were compared with the actual cases recorded for the period 25^th May to 11^th June 2020. It was observed that the actual values matched quite reasonably with the predicted values.

In situations of uncertainty, scenarios serve as input for evidence-based decision making. However, past experience shows that not all scenarios are treated equally, and we hypothise that only those based ion a world view shared by decision makers are perceived as credible and receive full attention. While intuitively plausible, this hypothesis has not been analysed by quantitative correlation analyses, so instead of drawing on quantitative data the paper analyses the archetypical scenarios developed in the ALARM project to substantiate the plausibility by a comparative analysis of world views, value systems and policy orientations. Shock scenarios are identified as a means to explore the possibility space of future developments beyond the linear developments models and most scenario storylines suggest. The analysis shows that the typical scenarios are based on mutually exclusive assumptions. In conclusion, a comparison of storyline and empirical data can reveal misperceptions, policy failures and the need to rethink world views as a necessary step to open up to new challenges. Deeply held beliefs will make this a transition unlikely to happen without severs crises, if not dedicated efforts to reveal the role of world views for scenarios and policies are undertaken.

Scenario analysis is a widely employed method for addressing uncertainties when assessing the physical and socio-economic impacts if climate change. Global scenarios have been extensively used in this context. However, these scenarios are in most cases not suitable for supporting local analyses. On the other hand, locally developed scenarios may lack the global context, thus having limited comparability with or transferability to other locations. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which have been primarily developed for climate impact research, provide the possibility to extend the existing global narratives and adapt them to local characteristics in order to develop locally relevant scenarios. Here, we propose a methodological framework for producing harmonized scenarios across different case studies. This framework was developed in the EVOKED project and combines elements of top-down and bottom-up approaches to develop local scenarios for five regions in northern Europe. We employ the SSP as boundary conditions and, in cooperation with stakeholders from these five regions, develop local scenarios for a range of SSP. The developed sets of scenarios are consistently informed by global developments and are therefore comparable with other downscaled scenarios developed in different regions. At the same time, they have been based on local participatory processes, thus being locally credible and relevant to the needs of stakeholders. The local scenarios constitute a climate service per se as they can raise stakeholder awareness of the processes that will drive risk, exposure, and adaptive capacity in the future and inform discussions on mitigation strategies and adaptation pathways.

Climate change and net zero are expected to have a significant impact on eco-nomic activity in developing countries, and thus, on the financial cash flow of organizations. In this paper, we propose a procedure for assessing the financial impact of climate change on organizational cash flow in developing countries. Our study contributes to the research on scenario-based climate change impact analysis. The applied research design is exploratory and mainly qualitative, constructing financial impact scenarios combined with narratives to determine the impact of climate change on individual cash flow line items. The narra-tives rationalize cash flow variations and enrich the estimates by adding expert knowledge, in the form of financial micro-stories and descriptions to the pro-posed procedure. We present a hypothetical citrus farming company in a de-veloping country to demonstrate the application of the proposed measurement procedure. The results obtained suggest that (1) the procedure is practical be-cause financial cash flows are known and widely used in financial analysis and because they can be implemented in a spreadsheet; that (2) the procedure pro-vides flexibility because it can be adapted to suit the specific needs of different companies, depending on a selected climate change scenario, the company’s exposure to climate change, its resilience and vulnerability; (3) that the prac-tice of thinking in terms of financial worst-case, base-case and best-case sce-narios, which reflect different levels of uncertainty, helps to model the finan-cial impacts of climate change and provides a forward-looking perspective on how much a company’s cash flow could change.

This paper proposes a model to evaluate business projects to get into an incubator, allowing to rank them in order of selection priority. The model combines the Momentum method to build prospective scenarios and the Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method TOPSIS-2N to rank the alternatives. Six business projects were evaluated to be incubated. The Momentum method made it possible for us to create an initial core of criteria for the evaluation of incubation projects. The TOPSIS-2N method supported the decision to choose the company to be incubated by ranking the alternatives in order of relevance. Our evaluation model has improved the existing models used by incubators. This model can be used and / or adapted by any incubator to evaluate the business projects to be incubated. The set of criteria for the evaluation of incubation projects is original and the use of prospective scenarios with a MCDM method to evaluate companies to be incubated does not exist in the literature.

Microgrid is one of the important ways to accommodate distributed PV generation. However, the optimal planning scheme of microgrids is closely related to solar resources, load characteristics, and the key components of microgrid systems. This paper uses HOMER software to conduct collaborative planning for grid-connected PV-storage microgrids with electric vehicles in multiple scenarios. Specifically, we construct a multi-scenario capacity optimization model for PV generation, energy storage, and converters, considering both the cleanliness and economic performance of microgrids. The performance is quantified using indices such as net present cost, levelized cost of electricity, and carbon dioxide emission under multiple scenarios. Finally, we conduct extensive case studies on a business park in Wuhan, China, to compare and discuss the planning performance under multiple scenarios, as well as sensitivity analysis with specific cases.

Address parsing is a crucial task in natural language processing, particularly for Chinese addresses. The complex structure and semantic features of Chinese addresses present challenges due to their inherent ambiguity. Additionally, different task scenarios require varying levels of granularity in address components, further complicating the parsing process. To address these challenges and adapt to low-resource environments, we propose CapICL, a novel Chinese address parsing model based on the In-Context Learning (ICL) framework. CapICL leverages a sequence generator, regular expression matching, BERT semantic similarity computation, and GPT modeling to enhance parsing accuracy by incorporating contextual information. We construct the sequence generator using a small annotated dataset, capturing distribution patterns and boundary features of address types to model address structure and semantics, mitigating interference from unnecessary variations. We introduce the REB-KNN algorithm, which selects similar samples for ICL-based parsing using regular expression matching and BERT semantic similarity computation. The selected samples, raw text, and explanatory text are combined to form prompts, and inputted into the GPT model for prediction and address parsing. Experimental results demonstrate significant achievements of CapICL in low-resource environments, reducing dependency on annotated data and computational resources. Our model's effectiveness, adaptability, and broad application potential are validated, showcasing its positive impact in natural language processing and geographical information systems.

A long-term forecast study on the electricity demand of Taoussa of Mali is conducted in this paper, with various scenarios of socioeconomic and technological conditions. The analysis tool, which is applied in scenarios simulation, is the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The analysis results are annual electricity demand and peak load forecast for the electrification from the period 2020 to 2035. During the planning period, the analysis results show that the electricity demand will increase to 49.40 MW (332.57 GWh) for the low scenario (LS), 66.46 MW (472.61 GWh) for the reference scenario (RS), and 89.47 MW (635 GWh) for the high scenario (HS). In addition, the total electricity demand increased at an average rate of 8.13% in the LS, 10.31% in the RS and 12.56% in the HS in all sectors. The electricity peak demand is expected to grow at 7.92%, 10.53% and 12.91% corresponding to the three scenarios; in this case, the system peak demand in 2035 will increase to 64.88 MW for the LS, 92.2 MW for the RS and 126.22 MW, the days of peak load are between 17th -23rd in May. The Industry sector will be the biggest electricity consumer of Taoussa area.

This paper addresses crashes involving heavy goods vehicles (HGV) in Europe focusing on long-haul trucks weighing 16 tons or more (16t+). The identification of the most critical scenarios and their characteristics is based on a three-level analysis: general crash statistics from CARE addressing all HGVs, results about 16t+ trucks from national crash databases and a detailed study of in-depth crash data from GIDAS, including a crash causation analysis. Most European HGV crashes occur in clear weather, during daylight, on dry roads, outside city limits, and on non-highway roads. Three main scenarios for 16t+ trucks are characterized in-depth: (1) rear-end crashes in which the truck is the striking partner, (2) conflicts during right turn maneuvers of the truck and a cyclist riding alongside and (3) pedestrians crossing the road in front of the truck. Among truck-related crash causes, information admission failures (e.g. distraction) were the main causing factors in 72% of cases in scenario (1) while information access problems (e.g. blind spots) were present for 72% of cases in scenario (2) and 75% of cases in scenario (3). The results provide both a global overview and sufficient depth of analysis in the most relevant cases and thereby aid safety system development.

Followed by the aspect of respect for rights 20, the social and environmental issue has a score of 19.9, the dialogue issue is 19. In short, the proximity plan indicates that the policies used regarding the issue of generating employment and economic growth (Empresa Mantaro Perú SAC), continue to be the strategic variables in the first instance, but they are far from the social actors (rural communities of Aco, Vico, Cruz Pampa and others) and environmental (Junín environmental dialogue table) and Ombudsman's Office (rights) that are currently closer together. The actor from the Archbishop of Huancayo referred to communication is one of the driving variables of power. The proximity plan shows us that the policies used regarding the issue of generating employment and economic growth (Empresa Mantaro Perú SAC), continue to be the strategic variables in the first instance, but that they are far from the social actors (Rural Communities of Aco , Vico, Cruz Pampa and others) and environmental (Junín Environmental Dialogue Table) and Ombudsman's Office (rights) that are currently closer together. The actor from the Archbishop of Huancayo referred to communication is one of the driving variables of power. The proximity plan shows us that the policies used regarding the issue of generating employment and economic growth (Empresa Mantaro Perú SAC), continue to be the strategic variables in the first instance, but that they are far from the social actors (Rural Communities of Aco , Vico, Cruz Pampa and others) and environmental (Junín Environmental Dialogue Table) and Ombudsman's Office (rights) that are currently closer together. The actor from the Archbishop of Huancayo referred to communication is one of the driving variables of power. but they are far from the social actors (rural communities of Aco, Vico, Cruz Pampa and others) and environmental (Junín Environmental Dialogue Table) and the Ombudsman's Office (rights) that are closer together today. The actor from the Archbishopric of Huancayo referred to communication, is within the driving variables of power. but they are far from the social actors (rural communities of Aco, Vico, Cruz Pampa and others) and environmental (Junín Environmental Dialogue Table) and the Ombudsman's Office (rights) that are currently closer together. The actor of the Archbishopric of Huancayo referred to communication, is within the driving variables of power.

Despite the extensive literature on missing data theory and cautionary articles emphasizing the importance of realistic analysis for healthcare data, a critical gap persists in incorporating domain knowledge into missing data problem formulation, assumption specification, and method development. In this paper, we highlight the gap particularly for observational data from healthcare facilities. We address this gap by identifying ten fundamental missingness scenarios arising during data measurement, recording, and pre-processing in observational health data, influenced by physicians, patients, healthcare facilities, and data scientists. We analyze the effect of scenarios on estimand formulation, missing data identification, estimation, and sensitivity analysis. To emphasize how domain-informed analysis can improve method reliability, we conduct simulation studies under the influence of various missingness scenarios. We compare the results of three common methods in medical data analysis (complete-case analysis, Missforest imputation, and inverse probability weighting estimation) for two estimands (variable mean estimation and classification accuracy). We advocate for our analysis approach as a reference for the analysis of observational health data. Furthermore, we posit that the proposed analysis framework is applicable to other medical domains, including medical wearable data analysis.

Arable Сhernozems with high SOC contents have the potential to be significant sources of GHGs, and climate change is likely to increase SOC losses, making the issue of carbon sequestration in this region even more important. The prospect of maintaining SOC stock or increasing it by 4% an-nually under planned management practice modifications for the period up to 2090 was evaluated using a long-term experiment on Haplic Chernozem in the Rostov Region, Russia. In this study, we used the RothC model to evaluate SOC dynamics for three treatments with mineral and organic fertilization under two adaptation scenarios vs. business as usual, as well as under two climate change scenarios. Correction of crop rotation and the application of organic fertilizers at high rates are essential tools for maintaining and increasing SOC stocks. This can maintain SOC stock at the level of 84–87 Mg∙ha-1 until the middle of the 21st century, as the first half of the century is con-sidered the most promising period for the introduction of adaptation measures for the additional accumulation of SOC on Chernozems. Part of the additional accumulated SOC is expected to be lost before 2090.

Purpose Prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) is a key method for providing environmental decision support for future technologies. The specific technology under study is often modeled by the practitioner (the so-called foreground system), whereas data for supply chains are sourced from life cycle inventory databases (the so-called background system). Within pLCA, it is paramount to consider possible future developments for both foreground and background systems to avoid a temporal mismatch between the specific technology under study and the wider economy, which could lead to incorrect conclusions. Therefore, and given the importance of future-oriented environmental decision support, efforts to develop prospective life cycle inventory (pLCI) databases have recently increased. However, there is still much to be improved to realize the widespread use of these databases and to have a stronger real-world effect on how future technology is designed. Methods This paper summarizes recent developments and structures the information chain behind pLCI databases. We then discuss conditions for the broad application of pLCI databases, and we propose priorities and ways forward to overcome existing challenges to foster the use of pLCI databases. Results The conditions are scientific integrity, usefulness to LCA practitioners, accessibility, usability, interpretability, and a continuous improvement process in which core stakeholders coordinate efforts to streamline the generation, sharing, and use of pLCI databases. Conclusions Priority should be given to installing a continuous process to improve the coverage and consistency of pLCI databases, to improve related guidance and documentation, and to remove practical barriers relating to the access and usability of pLCI databases in LCA software.

Fossil-based emissions can be avoided through using wood in place of non-renewable raw materials as energy and materials. However, increasing wood harvest influences forest carbon stocks. This effect may reduce the overall climate benefit of wood use significantly but is widely overlooked. We carried out a systematic review of simulation studies and compared differences in forest carbon and amount of wood harvested between more and less intensive wood harvest scenarios for three different time perspectives; short (1-30 years), mid (31-70 years) and long (71-100 years). Out of more than 450 reviewed studies 44 provided adequate data. Our results show that increased harvesting reduced carbon stocks over 100 years in temperate and boreal forests roughly 1.6 (stdev 0.9) t_C per t_C harvested. The value proved to be robust when outliers explicitly influenced by other factors than change in harvest rate, such as increase in fertilization or forest area, were removed. Interestingly, no significant difference in carbon impacts was found for average values of boreal and temperate forests or between short and long time-horizons. However, impacts tend to be greatest in the mid-term. This carbon balance indicator that we estimated can be interpreted as carbon debit of wood harvest in forests. It is significant compared with the typical GHG credits in technosphere generated by avoiding fossil emissions in substitution and increase in carbon storage in harvested wood products, and should not be ignored. Our estimates provide default values that can directly be included in GHG balances of products or assessment of mitigation policies and measures related to wood use. However, more systematic scenarios and transparent data in which different factors influencing forest carbon stocks are separately studied are clearly required to provide better constrained estimates for specific forest types.

Climate change from anthropogenic activities represents a serious threat to life in earth. Agriculture releases significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), but also offers low-cost opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions. This paper assesses agricultural GHG emissions in Aragon, one important and representative region for agriculture in Spain. The Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) approach is used to analyze the abatement potential and cost-efficiency of mitigation measures under several scenarios, with and without taking into account the interaction among measures and their transaction costs. The assessment identifies the environmental and economic outcomes of different combinations of measures. Moreover, we develop future mitigation scenarios for agriculture toward the year 2050, in order to assess the impacts on GHG emissions. Results highlight the importance of assessing biophysical processes in mitigation measures, and the significant effects of interactions between measures that reduce the abatement potential and worsen the cost-efficiency. The inclusion of transaction costs provides a better ranking of measures and a more accurate estimation of implementation costs. The scenario analysis shows how the combinations of measures could reduce emissions and promote sustainable agriculture in the future. Keywords: Climate change; mitigation measures; biophysical processes; cost-efficiency; abatement costs; transaction costs; policy scenarios.

Organic carbon (OC) accumulation in soil mitigates greenhouse gases emission and improves soil health. We aimed to quantify the dynamics of OC stock in soils and to justify technologies that allow annual increasing OC stock in the arable soil layer by 4‰. We based the study on a field experiment established in 1936 in the 9-field crop rotation with a fallow on Chernozem in European Russia. The RothC version 26.3 was used for the reproducing and forecasting OC dynamics. In all fertilizer applications at FYM background, there was a decrease in the OC stock with preferable loss of active OC, except the period 1964-71 with 2-5‰ annual OC increase. The model estimated the annual C input in the arable soil layer as 1,900 kg·ha-1. For increasing OC stocks by 4‰ per year, one should raise input to 2400 kg·ha-1. Simulation was made for 2016-2090 using climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Crop rotation without fallowing provided an initial increase of 3‰ and 6‰ of stocks in the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios accordingly, followed by a loss in accumulated OC. Simulation demonstrates difficulties to increase OC concentration in Chernozems under intensive farming and potential capacity to rise OC stock through yield management.

The accurate state of health (SOH) estimation of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) during operation is crucial to ensure optimal performance, prolonging battery life and preventing unexpected failure or safety hazards. This work presents a storage and performance optimised deep learning approach to predict the capacity based SOH of LIBs using raw sensor data from partial charging curves under constant current condition. The proposed model is based on a combination of a 1-dimensional convolutional and long-short term memory neural network and processes time, voltage and incremental capacity of partial charging curves as time series. The model is cross-validated on different aging scenarios reaching an overall MAE = 0.418% and RMSE = 0.531%, promising an accurate SOH estimation of LIBs under varying usage and environmental conditions in a real world application.

Disassembly is a pivotal technology to enable the circularity of electric vehicle batteries by applying circular economy strategies that extend the life cycle of their components, like remanufacturing and repurposing, or by using efficient recycling to reintegrate the gained materials in producing new battery systems. This paper aims to develop a multi-method self-configuring simulation model for investigating disassembly scenarios while considering the battery design as well as the configuration and layout of the disassembly station. We demonstrate the developed model in a case study using a battery of Mercedes-Benz and the automated disassembly station of the project DeMoBat at Fraunhofer IPA. Furthermore, we introduce two disassembly scenarios, the component-oriented and the accessibility-oriented disassembly, and compare them using the simulation model to determine several indicators, such as the frequency of tool change, the number and distribution of robot routes, the tool utilization, and the disassembly time.

The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of tuna in Pacific Island Countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones have yet to be investigated rigorously, and so their persistence and abundance in these areas remain uncertain. Here, we estimate optimal fisheries areas for four tuna species; Albacore (Thunnus alalunga), Bigeye (Thunnus obesus), Skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and Yellowfin (Thunnus albacares). We consider different climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, within a set of tuna catch records in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Tonga. Using environmental and CPUE datasets, species distribution modelling estimated and predicted these fisheries areas in the current and future climatic scenarios. Our projections indicate an expansion in area and a shift of productive areas to the southern part of this Exclusive Economic Zone of Tonga. This is an indication that future climatic scenarios might be suitable for the species under study however, changes in trophic layers, ocean currents and ocean chemistry might alter this finding. Information provided here will be relevant in planning future national actions towards proper management of these species.

There exists a compelling need to better understand the temporal dynamics of public sentiment towards COVID-19 vaccines in the US on a national and state-wise level for facilitating appropriate public policy applications. Our analysis of social media data from early February of 2021 and late March of 2021 shows that in spite of overall strength of positive sentiment, and increasing numbers of Americans being fully vaccinated, negative sentiment about COVID-19 vaccines still persists among sections of people who are hesitant towards the vaccine. In this study, we performed sentiment analytics on vaccine tweets, studied changes in public sentiment over time, conducted vaccination sentiment validation using actual vaccination data from the US CDC and Household Pulse Survey (HPS), explored influence of maturity of Twitter user-accounts and generated geographic mapping of sentiments by location of Twitter users. Furthermore, we leverage the emotion polarity based Public Sentiment Scenarios (PSS) framework which was developed for COVID-19 sentiment analytics, to systematically analyze directions for public policy processes to potentially improve the administration of vaccines. Application of the PSS framework provides important time sensitive insights for state and federal government agencies and associated organizations to better implement public policy processes for healthcare management, communication, transparency, motivation and societal operational policies such as social distancing. These insights are expected to contribute to processes that can expedite the vaccination program and move closer to the cherished herd immunity goal.

The assessment and prediction of drought risk under future climate change and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios is critically important for drought prevention and mitigation, as it enables a clearer understanding of potential shifts in drought patterns. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate sub-seasonal and seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought hazards across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under projected future climate conditions and LULC patterns. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent future climate for 2025-2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future LULC distributions. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks across different YRB zones are evaluated through a copula-based risk assessment approach, based on the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. The results indicate that sub-seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts will likely be the primary concern moving forward. Specifically, the upper YRB (zones A, B, C) exhibits greater vulnerability to sub-seasonal meteorological drought, while the Loess Plateau (zones C, E) shows higher susceptibility to sub-seasonal hydrological drought. Moreover, zone F in the downstream region may experience increased seasonal hydrological drought risk due to projected urban expansion in the middle and lower portions of the YRB.

The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and end of this century (2070–2099) relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase of rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

The target area of the present study is the entrance to the Sulina channel in the Black Sea, the zero-kilometer of the Danube River. This represents the southern gate of the seventh Pan-European transport corridor and is subjected to high navigation traffic. The coastal environment at the Danube’s mouth is very often subjected to strong environmental conditions inducing high risks for navigation hazards. From this perspective, the objective of the present work is to provide a more comprehensive picture concerning the past and future expected dynamics of the environmental matrix in this area, including especially wind and wave conditions. An analysis of some in situ measurements performed at the zero kilometer of the Danube is first carried out for the 15 years 2009-2023. A second analysis is based on data provided by regional climate wind models. Two 30-year periods are considered, the recent past (1976-2005), when also comparisons with ERA5 reanalysis data were performed, and the near future (2041-2070), when two different models and three climate scenarios were considered. Finally, using as a forcing factor each of the wind fields before analyzed, simulations with a spectral wave model were carried out and the nearshore wave conditions were evaluated. The results show that both extreme wind and wave conditions are expected to be slightly enhanced in the future. Strong wind fields are characteristic in this area, with wind gusts exceeding on average with more than 70% the maximum hourly averaged wind speed. As regards the waves, due to the complex nearshore phenomena, considerable enhancements in terms of significant wave heights are induced. Furthermore, there is also a high risk of rogue wave’s occurrence.

Background: Learning arrangements in health care profession education are increasingly taking place in digital environments. VR in nursing education, as one of the digital elements, is the subject of controversial debate. On the one hand it supports the authenticity of case studies by adding realistic perspectives and information. On the other hand, the costs of developing and maintaining software and hardware hinder long-term implementation. Methods: In this paper, we describe our findings and insights from two different research projects focused on the incorporation of digital tools, particularly virtual reality (VR), into nursing education. Based on the German context, our aim is to promote the adoption of innovative digital methods in nursing education and to offer invaluable experiences from the field. Results: Starting with a brief recapitulation of the projects, we then elucidate the pedagogical strategies for embedding VR-driven scenarios in nursing education. Based on our experiences during the projects we identify various positive aspects, such as change of perspective and simulating acute situations. Key findings: Although potential drawbacks remain, we advocate long-term implementation and specific use of VR at the interface between theory and practice. Nevertheless it is crucial to establish regular evaluation observing the value of digitalisation, especially VR; for nursing education.

The World Health Organization estimates that every year air pollution kills seven million people worldwide. As it is expected that climate change will affect future air quality patterns, the full understanding of the links between air pollution and climate change, and how they affect human health, are challenges of future research. In this scope, a methodology to assess the air quality impacts on health was developed. The WRF-CAMx modelling framework was applied for the medium-term future climate (considering the SSP24.5 scenario) and for the recent past (considered as baseline). Following the WHO recommendations, mortality health indicators were used to estimate health impacts of long-term exposures. For that, the Aveiro Region, in Portugal, was considered as a case study. Future climate results indicate the occurrence of higher temperatures, and lower total precipitation. Despite that, improvements in the main pollutants’ concentrations, and consequently in the reduction of the related premature deaths are foreseen, mainly due to the reduction of pollutants emissions imposed by the European legislation for the upcoming years. The applied approach constitutes an added value in this research field, being crucial to anticipate the effects of climate change on air quality and evaluate their impacts on human health.

Changes in extreme weather patterns are expected under climate change. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted using 4 building damage history datasets and 33 weather datasets (precipitation, wind speed, snow, and temperature) from 230 regions in South Korea to quantitatively analyze and predict building damage caused by potential future natural disasters. Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate building damage risk in 230 regions. The decision tree model to determine the risk of flood, gale, and typhoon was generated, which excluded gales, with less damage. The weight (variable importance) and limit value (damage limit) of the weather variables ware derived using the decision tree model. Using these two factors, we assessed the building damage risk in 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of flood damage increased by more than 30% in average. Conversely, regions at risk of snowfall damage decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, and the number of regions at high risk of typhoon damage increased by up to 62.5% in RCP 8.5. These results can be used as objective data to minimize future building damage throughout South Korea, representing the first step towards sustainable development in the region with respect to disaster response.