ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0410.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: social representations; natural hazard risk; Alpine hazards; risk communication; risk management; qualitative risk research;
Online: 16 November 2018 (13:35:01 CET)
The term “risk” is connoted with divergent meanings in natural hazard risk research and the practice of risk management. Whilst the technical definition is accurately defined, in practice, the term “risk” is often synonymously used with “danger”. Considering this divergence as a deficiency, risk communication often aims to correct laypersons’ understanding. We suggest in reference to Breakwell (2001) to treat the variety of meanings as a resource for risk communication strategies instead. However, there is no investigation so far, of what laypersons’ meanings of risk actually comprise. To address this gap, we examine the meanings of risk applying a social representations approach (Moscovici, 2001) in a qualitative case study design. Results of the study among inhabitants of Swiss mountain villages show that differences in meanings were found according to hazard experience and community size. We found commonly shared core representations, and single peripheral ones. We conclude with suggestions on how to make usage of the knowledge on SR in risk communication.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0128.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: large scale systems; risk assessment; risk management techniques; risk mitigation
Online: 10 December 2019 (07:14:12 CET)
Risk assessment management have been a hot topic for the researchers since a very long time. Software risk management is an important part of project management as it contains the identification, analysis, estimation and monitoring of different risks present in the system. This helps developers in decision making while assessing the problems that could arise in the software systems. Risk management is very complex in large scale system as these systems have very complex development. The paper describes risk management techniques for large scale system. Furthermore we have provided a detailed comparative analysis of these techniques with commonly identified risks in software systems and have provided a systematic order for risk management process to ensure risk mitigation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0551.v1
Subject: Biology, Ecology Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, biological invasions, regulations, policy, risk management
Online: 22 November 2018 (14:44:57 CET)
This report presents a framework for analysing the risk of alien taxa under South Africa's National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004, and the Alien and Invasive Species Regulations of 2014. While the report was initially designed to meet a specific South Africa need, the risk analysis processes developed can, we believe, be transferred to any specified geographic region. In outlining a series of questions related to a taxon’s likelihood of invasion and the consequences thereof, i.e. the potential impacts, the report provides a structure for collating data relevant to the process of listing taxa as well as a process for developing recommendations that is both mathematically sound, transparent, and that explicitly takes uncertainty into account. The framework is based on collating information according to international standards in biological invasions (specifically the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification of Alien Taxa Scheme, the CBD's scheme for classifying invasion pathways, and the Unified Framework for Biological Invasions proposed by Blackburn et al. 2011). The risk analysis framework is currently being implemented in South Africa in an effort to underpin national regulatory lists of invasive species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0030.v1
Subject: Arts & Humanities, Architecture And Design Keywords: green building; risk management; risk factors, risk mitigation measures; architect
Online: 2 May 2018 (16:55:58 CEST)
The number of green buildings has increased to address the global environmental crisis. However, green buildings face risks resulting from new materials and methods. In addition, these buildings are expected to perform at higher levels than traditional ones. The objectives of this study are to identify the possible risk factors for architects developing green building projects in South Korea and to assess risk mitigation measures. To attain this goal, fourteen risk factors and twelve mitigation measures were identified from a comprehensive literature review. A questionnaire survey was administered to architects practicing green building design. Findings revealed the ‘adoption of new technology and processes’ was the largest difference between green and traditional building projects. This study identified ‘financial risk,’ ‘design changes,’ and ‘client’s goal uncertainty’ as the top three risk factors in green building design. Additionally, the survey proposed the four most effective risk mitigation measures for green building projects: (1) ‘contract indicating each party’s roles, liabilities and limitations clearly’; (2) ‘utilizing integrated design process’; (3) ‘understanding client’s goal in green building projects’; and (4) ‘improving communication and coordination among stakeholders.’ There are a few studies focusing on the architects’ perceived risk concerning green building projects; however, this study expands the knowledge and fills the literature gap. Additionally, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of critical risks and mitigation measures that can benefit South Korea’s green building design practice through better risk management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0104.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: cyber risk; Internet of Things; cyber risk impact assessment; cyber risk estimation; cyber risk insurance
Online: 8 March 2019 (08:50:49 CET)
In this paper we present an understanding of cyber risks in the Internet of Things (IoT), we explain why it is important to understand what IoT cyber risks are and how we can use risk assessment and risk management approaches to deal with these challenges. We introduce the most effective ways of doing Risk assessment and Risk Management of IoT risk. As part of our research, we also developed methodologies to assess and manage risk in this emerging environment. This paper will take you through our research and we will explain: what we mean by the IoT; what we mean by risk and risk in the IoT; why risk assessment and risk management are important; the IoT risk management for incident response and recovery; what open questions on IoT risk assessment and risk management remain.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0119.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: Stress Testing; Credit Risk; Credit Risk Testing; Evaluation of Credit Risk; Credit Risk Management; Organizational Management
Online: 7 October 2021 (13:44:12 CEST)
The stress testing methodology should be implemented and applied to the entity's overall financial system at least annually, and if the organization operates in a volatile economy, it should be performed at least twice a year. Finally, managers should include regular training and development sessions for relevant employees of their organization to be fully informed and more informed and informed, considering the evolving science, theory and practicality of a discrete range of stress testing mechanisms that can be appropriately applied to overall financial framework and system of multiple financial institutions and banks. In addition, stress testing is essentially a methodology that collects and analyzes certain future macro-prudential and micro-prudential economic drivers and indicators, the primary purpose of which is to assess the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a financial institution, bank, organization, credit institution or economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically targeted and incorporated into a paper that substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance of the feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0346.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: environmental health; risk communication; risk management; particulate matter; risk analysis; mass event
Online: 27 April 2018 (05:15:54 CEST)
Atmospheric pollution arising from diesel-powered engines can result in acute and chronic diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. The annual carnival festival that takes place in the city of Salvador, Bahia-Brazil, is a large-scale event that gathers approximately 2 m revelers and 170,000 workers who accompany dozens of sound-trucks, or trios elétricos, for a period of seven days. These slow-moving sound-trucks run on diesel fuel, constantly exposing those around them to exhaust fumes. The present study aimed to evaluate air quality along the approximately 10km-long carnival parade circuit and determine possible impacts on human health. We applied a three-phase risk analysis strategy from 2007–2009: 1) hazard identification, 2) risk characterization and 3) risk management. Our quantification of atmospheric particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations revealed variable levels of PM2.5 ranging from 19 µg/m3 to 580 µg/m3, with peaks of up to 800 μg/m3 at sound-truck concentration areas. We then assessed the effects of air pollution on human health using ophthalmologic parameters obtained from 28 carnival volunteers, who often presented symptoms of eye irritation. Finally, we established strategies to communicate the study’s objectives and obtained results to the population through media outlets and open discussions with government agencies. According to our risk analysis, carnival sound-trucks represent the main source of atmospheric PM2.5 and NO2 pollution during the annual 7-day carnival festival. As a consequence of our research, the municipal government of Salvador issued an addendum to its carnival legislation mandating organizers to monitor atmospheric pollution, and, subsequently, all large-scale public events. Municipal government authorities have also promoted a shift from petroleum-based diesel fuel to biodiesel, a less-polluting fuel, for all adapted carnival sound-trucks. Our approach, which employed easily accessible and inexpensive methodology, provided substantial scientific evidence to support improvements in the regulation of air quality during large-scale public events held in the city of Salvador.Keywords: environmental
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0041.v3
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: uncertainty management; risk management; safety; ISO 31000:2009; ISO 31010:2009; risk management framework; risk-sentience; safety culture; risk culture; enterprise risk management
Online: 19 June 2018 (12:58:28 CEST)
The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0134.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: risk; resilience; pandemic; prioritization; risk management; Arctic
Online: 4 June 2021 (10:40:38 CEST)
The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0422.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: transformation; flood risk reduction; Jakarta; risk governance
Online: 29 May 2018 (09:32:27 CEST)
Jakarta belongs to the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge and increasingly sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing risk reduction and adaption measures is therefore of utmost importance. Against the background, the paper draws on a discourse analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformative from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard will intensify in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning – particularly with regards to the accepted level of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0436.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Uncertainty; Climate risk assessment; Impact chain; Climate change; Risk; Tourism risk; Heat index
Online: 28 September 2022 (09:23:03 CEST)
The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0109.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Organizational Economics & Management Keywords: Information Technology, Risk Primary Market, Secondary Market Risk, Non-Financial Risks, Risk Management
Online: 11 January 2019 (10:45:25 CET)
The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0332.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography Keywords: social risk; risk management; urban renewal; collectivism; China
Online: 18 August 2022 (07:41:22 CEST)
Social sustainability is the major concern of planners and local officials when urban renewal projects are being conducted. Extreme individualism can potentially cause conflicts of interest, making urban renewal in Western cities fraught with various types of social risks. As a country with deep-rooted socialist tradition, urban renewal projects in China are influenced by collectivist culture and show different features from those of the West. The objective of this research is to investigate how different stakeholders in urban redevelopment projects, including local residents, social organizations, the local state, and developers, interact with each other and how the associated social risks are hedged against. Using a recent well-known project in the city of Guangzhou, the authors attempt to present the latest progress in social risk management in China. With the support from a government-sponsored project, the authors have conducted a questionnaire-based survey and year-long follow-up fieldwork. Using ATLAS.ti software, we found that that “residents’ demand”, “status of collaboration”, and “degree of trust” are the keys to risk management. The results of an ordered probit model show that residents are worried about the overall planning, the relocation timetable, and whether their personal needs are taken into account. It is also indicated that the timely disclosure of project information, high-quality public participation, and a reasonable compensation plan can possibly boost the support rate. The authors suggest that utilizing China’s collectivist culture could be an effective way to mitigate social risks, and residents’ personal interests should also be respected.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0202.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Seismic vulnerability; Urban areas; Objective risk; Perceived risk
Online: 14 July 2022 (03:25:12 CEST)
The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact.The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, “hazard”, “exposure” and “vulnerability”. Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk.This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0169.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: asset allocation; risk factor; risk exposure; macro-factor
Online: 12 May 2022 (10:44:13 CEST)
Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0218.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geology Keywords: risk perception; geo-hydrological risk; education; Southern Italy
Online: 26 March 2018 (14:17:57 CEST)
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0047.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: cancer risk; risk assessment; volcanic soils; Santiago Island
Online: 14 August 2017 (09:11:20 CEST)
The hazard and the carcinogenic risks due to the exposure to some potentially toxic elements by the Santiago Island (Cape Verde) population where calculated, considering soil ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact as exposure pathways. The topsoil of Santiago Island is enriched in Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Mn and Cd to upper crust values. Hazard indices (HI) were calculated for these metals and As exposures, of Santiago Island population and the calculations were performed for children and adults. For children HI are higher than 1 for Co, Cr and Mn. So there is indication of potential non-carcinogenic risk for children, due to the high Co (HI=2.995), Cr (HI=1.329) and Mn (HI=1.126), values in soils. For the other elements and for adults there is no potential non-carcinogenic risk. Cancer risk was calculated for As, Cd, Cr and Ni exposures, for adults and children and the results are always lower than the carcinogenic target risk of 1x10-6, for As, Cd, and Ni. However, cancer risk are higher than the carcinogenic target risk for Cr, for adults. Regarding As, for children the fraction due to Riskingestion represents 51.6%, while Riskinhalation represents 48.0% and Riskdermalcontact represents only 0.4% of total risk. For adults Riskinhalation represents 81.3%, Riskingestion represents 16.6% and Riskdermal contact represents 2.1%. These results reflect the higher daily ingestion dose for children and the higher inhalation rate and higher dermal contact surface for adults. For the other elements and for adults the cancer risk due to Cr, Ni and Cd inhalation is always higher than for children, reflecting the higher inhalation rate for adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0109.v2
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: Cyber risk; Internet of Things cyber risk; Digital Economy Risk Assessment; Economic Impact Assessment.
Online: 9 April 2019 (12:26:13 CEST)
We present an updated design process for adapting and integrating existing cyber risk assessment approaches for impact assessment for the risk from IoT to the digital economy. The new design process includes a set of changes to the original standards (e.g. NIST) that are adapted for the IoT cyber risk in this paper. This paper also presents a new framework for impact assessment of IoT cyber risk, specific for the digital economy.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0135.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: cardiovascular risk assessment; postmenopausal women; cardiovascular risk factors; emerging risk factors; hormone replacement therapy
Online: 8 June 2018 (12:46:31 CEST)
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rising rapidly among the postmenopausal woman but they are less likely to identify their risk by an appropriate risk assessment tool. This review evaluates available literature on cardiovascular risk assessment among postmenopausal women to provide a concise view of risk factors and disease burden among them, present risk assessment systems including their drawbacks, emergence of new risk factors and their role in risk prediction, and finally use of hormone replacement therapy during menopause. Results demonstrate that menopause is a transition point for developing CVD not due to physiological changes only but psychosocial factors like depression and marital stress are also responsible. Both conventional and emerging risk factors burden are high among postmenopausal women. Though data regarding CVD risk assessment among postmenopausal population is lacking but existing evidences claimed underestimation or overestimation of risk among women. Moreover application of different tools on same population has revealed significant variation in result. In this regard, recalibration of conventional tools with local data and new risk factors has showed improvement of risk prediction. Hormone replacement therapy during early menopause has reported beneficial to prevent CVD but in secondary prevention it has no role. All of these findings demand further studies on cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in developing countries where women after menopause are not in consideration of health strategy makers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0110.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: IoT Cyber Risk, IoT risk analysis, IoT cyber insurance, IoT MicroMort, Cyber Value-at-Risk
Online: 8 March 2019 (15:24:59 CET)
This paper is focused on mapping the current evolution of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks for the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) sector. We report the results of a qualitative empirical study that correlates academic literature with 14 - I4.0 frameworks and initiatives. We apply the grounded theory approach to synthesise the findings from our literature review, to compare the cyber security frameworks and cyber security quantitative impact assessment models, with the world leading I4.0 technological trends. From the findings, we build a new impact assessment model of IoT cyber risk in Industry 4.0. We therefore advance the efforts of integrating standards and governance into Industry 4.0 and offer a better understanding of economics impact assessment models for I4.0.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0091.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: risk prediction; prediction models; risk of bias; PROBAST; melanoma
Online: 7 May 2022 (03:50:41 CEST)
Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0132.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: risk perception; coronavirus; covid-19; risk communication; global health
Online: 7 May 2020 (15:12:32 CEST)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0020.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: longevity risk; s-forwards; pricing; risk margin; solvency II
Online: 1 May 2017 (11:39:12 CEST)
Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0132.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: fall risk assessment; risk of falling; force platforms; inertial sensors.
Online: 12 August 2016 (09:32:28 CEST)
Purpose: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recently published quality standards for assessment of fall risk and preventing further falls. According to the standards, multifactorial fall risk assessments should include: identification of falls history; analysis of gait, balance, mobility and muscle strength, among other factors. Despite being based on subjective analysis or simple timing and not being multifactorial, physiotherapists and physicians quite often use these tests as reference scales to differentiate between lower and higher risk of falling. Instrumented TUG has been recently reported to provide important additional information to the overall score. Objective: To explore a case-based approach of fall risk assessment to identify the most relevant and informative risk factors that in combination could better define a person risk profile. Materials and Methods: A multifactorial assessment of fall risk through questionnaires, standard functional tests, tests instrumented with inertial sensors, and force platforms has been studied within a group aged 55-80 years old. Different fall risk factors and fall risk assessment methods were analyzed in a case-based descriptive study. Results & Discussion: Subjects at higher risk of falling were identified based on their detailed profiles. A set of features were obtained from the instrumented standard tests differing significantly between subjects presenting higher or lower fall risk. Therefore, instrumenting conventional tests with wearables containing inertial sensors and force platforms gives more detailed and quantitative insights. This information can be used to better define and tailor fall prevention exercises and to improve the follow-up of the evolution of the subject.
Subject: Keywords: Mitigation; Risk Reduction; Global Catastrophic Biological Risk; Epidemics; Disease X; Literature Review; Pandemics; Value of Information; Existential Risk
Online: 28 February 2020 (12:32:33 CET)
There are potentially promising mitigation activities for epidemic and pandemic scenarios that are not currently the subject of significant research effort. Large epidemics and pandemics pose risks that are important to mitigate, even if the likelihood of the events is low and uncertain. While some efforts are the subject of extensive funding and consideration, other approaches are neglected. Here, we consider such neglected interventions which could significantly reduce the impact of such an epidemic or large-scale pandemic. These are identified via a narrative literature review of extant literature reviews and overviews of mitigations in epidemic and pandemic situations, followed by consideration of the economic value of information of further study of heretofore neglected interventions and approaches.Based on that analysis, we considered several classes of mitigations, and conducted more exploratory reviews of each. Those discussed include mitigations for (1) reducing transmission, such as personal protective equipment and encouraging improved hygiene, (2) reducing exposure by changing norms and targeted changes for high-risk or critical professions and activities, (3) reducing impact for those infected, and (4) increasing large scale resilience using disaster and infrastructure continuity planning.Some proposed mitigations are found to be of low marginal value. Other mitigations are likely to be valuable, but the concepts or applications are underdeveloped. In those cases, further research, resources, or preparation are valuable for mitigating both routine and extreme disease outbreak events. Still more areas of research are identified as having uncertain value based on specific but resolvable uncertainties. In both of the latter cases, there is no guarantee that mitigations identified as worthy of further consideration will be valuable, but the argument for further research is clear.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0011.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: Global risk factors; Credit Default Swaps; Sovereign credit risk; Copulas approach
Online: 1 November 2021 (11:50:02 CET)
This study examined the tail dependency structure of sovereign credit risk and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using copulas approach, which is known for its ability to provide the “true” tail correlation based on the correct marginal distribution. The empirical results show that global market risk sentiment comoves with sovereign CDS spreads across BRICS countries under extreme market events, with Brazil having the highest co-dependency followed by China, Russia, and South Africa. Furthermore, oil price volatility is the second biggest risk factor correlated with sovereign CDS spreads for Brazil and South Africa while exchange rate risk exhibits very small co-dependence with sovereign CDS spreads under extreme market conditions dominated by tail events. On the contrary, exchange rate risk is the second largest risk factor co-moving with China and Russia’s sovereign CDS spreads while oil price volatility exhibits the lowest co-dependence to CDS in these countries. Between oil price and currency risk, evidence of single risk factor dominance is found for Russia where exchange rate risk is largely dominant. These results suggest that BRICS policymakers might consider financial sector regulations that mitigate risks spill-over such as targeted capital controls when markets are distressed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0066.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: cyber physical systems; cybercrime; risk mitigation; risk management; industrial control systems
Online: 5 April 2018 (06:10:06 CEST)
Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) is the integration of computation and physical process that makes a complete system such as the physical components, networked systems, embedded computers and software and linking together of devices and sensors for information sharing. Cyber Physical Systems are Smart Systems that comprises of the merging and integration of Industry Control Systems, Critical Infrastructures, Internet of Things (IoT) and Embedded Systems. Major industries such as the Chemical and Industrial Plants, Aviation Systems, National Grid, the Stock Exchange, Military Systems, and others depends heavily on these Cyber Physical Systems for financial and economic growth. The benefits of CPS nationally and globally are in the areas of Manufacturing, Energy, Transport, Healthcare and Communication. Cyber Physical Systems incorporates Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements on network infrastructures to provide interactive systems. However, these three key components the Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements may have inherent threats and vulnerabilities on them that may run the risk of being compromise, exploited, attacked or hacked. Cybercriminals in their quest to bring down these systems and may cause disruption of services either for fame, revenge, political motive, economic war, cyber terrorism and cyber war. The study seeks to review the risks that are associated with these three key components Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements. The study considered four main risk mitigation goals for this purpose, and these are Business Value, Organizational Requirements, Threat Agent and Impact based on the review results. We used Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to determine the relative importance of these goals that contributes to developing cybercrime and rich in CPS. For the results, the prioritized goals are then used to assess the risks using a semi-quantitative approach to determine the net threat level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0035.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: inflation risk; investment returns; life annuity; longevity risk; post-retirement benefits
Online: 7 December 2016 (10:27:23 CET)
Building a social security system to ensure Singapore residents have peace of mind in funding for retirement has been at the top of Singapore Government’s policy agenda over the last decade. Implementation of the Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) scheme in 2009 clearly shows that the government spares no effort in improving its pension scheme to boost its residents’ income after retirement. Despite the recent modifications to the LIFE scheme, Singapore residents must still choose between two plans: the Standard and Basic plans. To enhance the flexibility of the LIFE scheme while maintaining its simplicity, we propose some plan modifications such that scheme members do not face a dichotomy of plan choices. Instead, they select two age parameters: the Payout Age and the Life-annuity Age. This paper provides an actuarial framework for determining members’ payouts and bequests based on the proposed age parameters. We analyze the net cash receipts and internal rate of return (IRR) for various plan-parameter configurations. This information helps members make their plan choices. To address cost-of-living increases we propose to extend the plan to accommodate an annual step-up of monthly payouts. By deferring the Payout Age from 65 to 68, members can enjoy an annual increase of about 2% of the payouts for the same first-year monthly benefits.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201609.0028.v2
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: VOC; technological risk; exposure to risks; DRI; risk mapping; SIG; BTEX
Online: 13 September 2016 (03:42:52 CEST)
The population’s mobility in urban areas is a necessary variable in the modeling of risk scenarios caused by atmospheric contamination. The inclusion of this concept makes static models more dynamic while considering people within a city to be an entity with complex mobility processes. We propose a conceptual and methodological tool to make the representation of the social, economic and territorial components, as well as the patterns in the population´s mobility to delimitate risk areas for human health by exposure of contaminants. In the volatile organic compounds (VOC), benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene and xylene (BTEX) are amongst the most dominant substances in fugitive vapor emissions in gas stations (GS). In urban areas, the exposure to BTEX by residential proximity and proximity to other facilities, which cause intra-urban agglomeration, can impact and affect human health. This model seeks to facilitate the focalization, identification and prioritization of risk areas by BTEX environmental contamination. This article goes beyond de conceptual framework. It suggests methodological and instrumental aspects to be applied in other cities. The government agencies must consider these results when establishing rules, permissions and procedures to reduce environmental pollution for managing the risk in a complex urban environment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0197.v1
Subject: Engineering, Construction Keywords: construction; safety; risk; hazard; critical control risk management; critical control; fatality prevention
Online: 13 July 2022 (09:18:21 CEST)
Across the global construction industry, fatalities continue to occur from high-risk activities where the risk controls have been defined, however were unreliable. In the mining industry, Critical Control Risk Management has provided positive results in reducing major accidents, which raises the question, could the Critical Control approach reduce the fatality rate in the construction industry? This study analysed 10 years of serious and fatal incident investigation reports from four international construction companies to i) assess the reliability of their Critical Controls (CCs) and ii) assess the factors which affect the reliability of CCs. The results show the reliability of CCs, measured by implementation and effectiveness, averaged just 42%. Human performance factors including risk identification, decision-making and competency together with supervision, job planning, communication organisational factors were identified as affecting the reliability of CCs. The study used bow-tie diagrams with real event data to find the actual CC effectiveness. This gave actionable findings directly related to individual CCs enabling the participating organization to focus resources on improving specific verification processes. The results confirm the applicability of CCs for the Major Accident Event hazards analyzed and highlights further review is required of the factors which need to be considered when implementing a CC program. This paper details our methodology and results, to assist others apply CCs as a risk management tool.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0023.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: perturbation expansion; Green’s function; model risk; model uncertainty; credit derivatives; CVA; correlation risk
Online: 4 January 2018 (03:24:24 CET)
We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0071.v1
Online: 6 January 2022 (10:35:42 CET)
The paper is an investigation on the impact of financial markets on the volatility of green bonds credit risk component, measured by the option-adjusted spread/swap curve (OAS) of the Global Bloomberg Barclays MSCI Green Bond Index, for both the non and pandemic periods. For these purpose, after observing the dynamic joint correlations between all the variables through a DCC-GARCH, we adopt GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, putting the OAS as dependent variable. Our main results show that the conditional variance parameters are significant and persistent in both times, testifying the overall impact of the other markets on the OAS. In more detail, we highlight that the gamma in the two EGARCH models is positive: so the “green” credit risk volatility is more sensitive to positive shocks than negative ones. With reference to the conditional mean, we note that if during the non pandemic time only the stock market is significant, during the pandemic also conventional bonds and gold are impacting. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that analyzes the specific credit risk component of green bond yields: we deem our findings useful to observe the change of green bonds creditworthiness in a complex market context.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0713.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: combinatorics, risk analysis, decision analysis.
Online: 27 April 2021 (12:33:23 CEST)
Let us assume that defence mechanisms are so strong that the average outcome of a hacking attack is unsuccessful. How to calculate the costs arising from false positives and false negatives in intruder detection? Is it better for the hacker to make fewer but more effective attacks rather than several but less effective attacks? How to calculate the difference between these alternative strategies?
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0410.v1
Online: 31 December 2019 (11:14:44 CET)
In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia - DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0224.v1
Online: 17 April 2018 (11:17:49 CEST)
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) created a list of Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) with the intention of determining which financial institutions were important enough to the global market that their failure would result in systemic collapse. In this work we create a model that modifies the BCBS's five indicators of size, interconnectedness, cross-jurisdictional activities, complexity, and substitutability and applies these measures of systemic stress to governments. The original application of the model is to track the systemic interdependence of the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on the case of Greece. We anticipate this model can be used in regional fiscal situations beyond the Eurozone.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0584.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: Parkinson’s disease; parkinsonism; LRRK2; neuropathology; modifier; genetics; GWAS; environmental risk factors; polygenic risk score
Online: 23 December 2020 (10:49:22 CET)
Missense mutations in the LRRK2 gene were first identified as a pathogenic cause of Parkinson’s disease (PD) in 2004. Soon thereafter, a founder mutation in LRRK2, p.Gly2019Ser (rs34637584), was described, and it is now estimated that there are approximately 100,000 people worldwide that carry this risk variant. While the clinical presentation of LRRK2 parkinsonism has been largely indistinguishable from sporadic PD, disease penetrance and age at onset can be quite variable. In addition, its neuropathological features span a wide range from nigrostriatal loss with Lewy body pathology, lack thereof, or atypical neuropathology including a large proportion of cases with concomitant Alzheimer’s pathology, hailing LRRK2 parkinsonism as the "Rosetta stone" of parkinsonian disorders. These differences may result from interactions between LRRK2 mutant protein and other proteins or environmental factors that modify LRRK2 function, and thereby influence pathobiology. This review explores how potential genetic and biochemical modifiers of LRRK2 function may contribute to the onset and clinical presentation of LRRK2 parkinsonism. We review, which genetic modifiers of LRRK2 influence clinical symptoms, age at onset, and penetrance, what LRRK2 mutations are associated with pleomorphic LRRK2 neuropathology, and which environmental modifiers can augment LRRK2 mutant pathophysiology. Understanding how LRRK2 function is influenced and modulated by other interactors and environmental factors –either increasing toxicity or providing resilience- will inform targeted therapeutic development in the years to come. This will allow developing disease-modifying therapies for PD and LRRK2-related neurodegeneration.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0263.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: utility; uncertainty; risk averse; wellness output; treatment inputs; coronavirus; psychological risk attitude; dynamic interactions
Online: 16 May 2020 (15:42:42 CEST)
A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0038.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: asset pricing; credit risk modeling; unilateral; bilateral; multilateral credit risk; collateralization; comvariance; comrelation; correlation
Online: 3 October 2019 (04:49:57 CEST)
This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: risk measure; value at risk; tail conditional expectation; expected shortfall; bank capital; Basel accords
Online: 16 April 2019 (10:48:48 CEST)
The use of risk measures such as the Value at Risk (VaR) or Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE) is required by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in determining a bank’s risk profile. However, both measures can be shown to have shortcomings in the information that they provide to regulators and investors. In this paper we present an introduction to risk measure calculations before demonstrating the weaknesses of these measures. Through the exploration of specific cases we show how familiar yet differing risk profiles have identical values for combinations of these measures. From this evidence we recommend that a sequence of several risk measures should be used to give a more accurate representation of the risk contained on banking balance sheet.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0215.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: street dust; PAHs; source evaluation; incremental lifetime cancer risk; cancer risk assessment; coastal city
Online: 10 October 2018 (10:49:21 CEST)
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in street dust pose a serious problem threatening both environment and human health. Street dust were collected from five different land use patterns (traffic areas TRA, urban area URA, residential areas REA, mixed residential commercial areas MCRA and suburban areas SUA) in a Saudi coastal city, Jeddah, and one in rural area (RUA) in Hada Al Sham. This study aimed to investigate the status, profile, sources of PAHs and estimate their human health risk. The results revealed an average concentration of total PAHs of 3320 ng/g in street dust of Jeddah and 223 ng/g in RUA dust. PAHs with high molecular weight represented 83.38% of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah, while the carcinogenic PAH compounds accounted 57.84%. The highest average concentration of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah was found in TRA (4980 ng/g) and the lowest in REA (1660 ng/g). PAHs ratios indicated that the principal source of PAHs in street dust of Jeddah is pyrogenic, mainly traffic emission. Benzo(a)anthracene/ chrysene (BaA/CHR) ratio suggests that PAHs in street dusts of Jeddah come mainly from emission of local sources, while PAHs in RUA might be transported from the surrounding urban areas. The estimated Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) associated with exposure to PAHs in street dusts indicated that both dermal contact and ingestion pathways are major contributed to cancer risk for both children and adults. Based on BaPequivalence concentrations of total PAHs, ILCRIngestion, ILCRdermal and cancer risk values for children and adults exposed to PAHs in street dust of different areas in Jeddah were found between 10−6 and 10−4, indicating potential risk. The sequence of cancer risk was TRA > URA > MCRA > SUA > REA. Only exposure to BaP and DBA compounds had potential risk for both children and adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0080.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control & Systems Engineering Keywords: Internet of Things; Micro Mart model; Goal-Oriented Approach; transformation roadmap; Cyber risk regulations; empirical analysis; cyber risk self-assessment; cyber risk target state
Online: 6 March 2019 (11:47:04 CET)
The Internet-of-Things (IoT) enables enterprises to obtain profits from data but triggers data protection questions and new types of cyber risk. Cyber risk regulations for the IoT however do not exist. The IoT risk is not included in the cyber security assessment standards, hence, often not visible to cyber security experts. This is concerning, because companies integrating IoT devices and services need to perform a self-assessment of its IoT cyber security posture. The outcome of such self-assessment needs to define a current and target state, prior to creating a transformation roadmap outlining tasks to achieve the stated target state. In this article, a comparative empirical analysis is performed of multiple cyber risk assessment approaches, to define a high-level potential target state for company integrating IoT devices and/or services. Defining a high-level potential target state represent is followed by a high-level transformation roadmap, describing how company can achieve their target state, based on their current state. The transformation roadmap is used to adapt IoT risk impact assessment with a Goal-Oriented Approach and the Internet of Things Micro Mart model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0656.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19; non-pharmaceutical interventions; vaccinations; vaccine doses; pre-existing condition; high risk; low risk
Online: 26 April 2021 (11:00:59 CEST)
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the U.S. on December 29, 2019 and has spread rapidly throughout the country, affecting individuals with varying severity due to their risk status. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at higher risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a COVID-19 vaccine among low and high risk groups. Numerical simulations shows vaccinating both low and high risk groups simultaneously, rather than prioritizing the vaccine on high risk group only, further reduces the daily mortality. The result supports the need for an aggressive vaccination program, regardless of whether individuals are within the low or high risk population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201911.0184.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: flood disaster risk; vulnerability to flood disaster risk; arc-geographical information system (arcgis); geo-mapping
Online: 15 November 2019 (16:54:51 CET)
Flood is identified as one of the major disasters in the world; it destroys both human and properties across the world, where lives are lost, properties, public infrastructure, farmlands and agricultural produce with farm crops carted away as a result of flood disaster. Studies revealed that the flood in itself is not the danger, but the level of human vulnerability to flooding disaster risk, which enhances its destructive capabilities. However, based on the challenges poses by flood disaster risk, this research identifies Ala river in Akure as a potential cause of flood, considering its location and other human activities around the river. Therefore, the research used Ala-river a case study to identify and mapped out areas susceptible to flood disaster risk. The research made use of both literature review and conducted goe-data gathering with the application GIS-computer database to retrieve georeferencing relevant data from the fieldwork in the study area of Ala-river basin to mapped out locations vulnerable to achieve the research aim. The research adopted a Geo-mapping of the vulnerable area to Ala-River basin using arc-GIS tool in combination with other software such as IKONAS and OLI (Operation Land Imager) for the production of the study area imagery, ER-ITERIM was used for the collection of rainfall data and FAO was applied for digital soil mapping. These applications produced; the land use/land cover map, digital elevation map, buffer map using 30 meters setback, annual rainfall map, soil types map, vulnerability map and soil textural table for the study area. Analysis of the produced and generated maps shows 316 buildings vulnerability to flood disaster risk; the soil texture and types, and alternative use to which the soil types can be useful. The research recommends that demolition of the identified 316 buildings prone to flood disaster and compliance of building construction to 30 meters setback by developers. Others are the conversion of the future land setback for urban agricultural purposes and preservation of water retention areas for agricultural activities during the dry season among others. The study concludes that relevant government agencies in the State and in particular in Akure South Local Government should ensure prompt compliance and implementation of the recommendations to avoid potential flood disaster risks.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0135.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: Sporadic Parkinson’s disease. Drosophila, genetic risk factor, environmental risk factor,Serendipity, dopamine, neurodegeneration, animal model
Online: 7 September 2018 (12:40:50 CEST)
Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the most common cause of movement disorder characterized by the progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. It is increasingly recognized as a complex group of disorders presenting widely heterogenous symptoms and pathology. Except for the rare monogenic forms, the majority of the PD cases result from an interaction between multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. The search for these risk factors and the development of preclinical animal models are in progress hand in hand, providing mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of PD. This review summarizes the studies that capitalize on modeling sporadic (i.e. non-familial) PD using Drosophila melanogaster and discuss their methodology, new findings and future perspective.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0174.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Clinical Psychology Keywords: apolipoprotein; suicide; biomarker; psychiatry; risk factor
Online: 9 August 2022 (05:10:32 CEST)
Every year around 800 000 people commit suicide, this represents one death every 40 seconds. In the search for possible biological biomarkers associated with suicide and/or psychiatric disorders, serum cholesterol levels have been extensively explored. Several studies have indicated that cholesterol and associated proteins, especially apolipoproteins (Apos), may play an important role in the diagnosis, prognosis, and susceptibility of suicide. Here, we describe the current knowledge and findings in the relationship between apolipoproteins and suicide.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0005.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Durability; Reinforced concrete; Automated visualization; Risk
Online: 1 August 2022 (05:09:38 CEST)
Reinforced Concrete (RC) durability is a crucial feature to estimate the long-term quality and structural performance. Since life span estimation is vital for maintenance resource planning, a degradation model of RC component extracts by updating the status of structures and trending the components’ state over time in terms of durability. Surface erosion, spalling, cracks, and other expose defects on the RC component lead to increase factors adversely affecting concrete durability in structures. This research presents an approach based on automated visualization for extracting quantitative indexes beside or instead of visual inspection without subjective interspersion of humans or probable human errors during the inspection. The durability index (D_i) will extract based on damage probability and its growth in order to extract the severity of failure and risk. Measurement operation by automated software has been double-checked by manual measurement tools, and data will verify randomly in this method. The result shows damage growth in this load-bearing component by 24 percentages over the definite time. According to degradation models, it shows this component may pass the relative thresholds as a limit state of operation to fail. This significant difference between expected time and designing time determines the D_i equal to 5 out of 10.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0343.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: resilience; communication; systemic risk; systemic recovery
Online: 25 March 2022 (09:02:49 CET)
This work reviews three frameworks for responding to economic disruption: risk mitigation, systemic recovery, and economic resilience. Specifically, by reviewing extant literature in economics, communication, and other disciplines, we argue that current approaches to understanding resilience in economics largely fail to address ongoing and emergent disruptions to the economic and social world. In response to these issues, we work to synthesize economic frameworks and the communication theory of resilience to forward a new way of examining the overlapping questions of economic resilience related to metatheoretical commitments, analytic contexts, and implications for theory, method, and practice.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0148.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: Pneumonic plague; transmission; risk; frequency; epidemic
Online: 9 December 2021 (10:32:40 CET)
Pneumonic plague outbreaks are relatively infrequent in modern times but in the early part of the 20th century, they were commonplace including several well-documented epidemics responsible for the deaths of thousands. The transmissibility of this disease seems to be discontinuous since in some outbreaks few transmissions occur, while in others, the progression of the epidemic is explosive. Modern epidemiological studies explain that transmissibility within populations is heterogenous with relatively few subjects likely to be responsible for most transmissions and that ‘super spreading events’, particularly at the start of an outbreak, can lead to a rapid expansion of cases. These findings concur with outbreaks observed in real-world situations. It is often reported that pneumonic plague is rare and not easily transmitted but this view could lead to unnecessary complacency since future risks such as the spontaneous incidence of anti-microbial strains, climate change leading to a disruption of natural cycles within plague foci and use of plague as a bioweapon cannot be discounted. Carers and first responders are vulnerable, particularly in poorer countries where access to medicines may be limited, out-breaks occur in inaccessible areas or where there is a lack of surveillance due to a paucity of funds.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0397.v1
Online: 27 October 2021 (10:53:56 CEST)
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents' preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0178.v1
Online: 6 April 2021 (13:30:25 CEST)
Background Pregnancy is a process of maturity for women that requires adaptation to the changes in their new roles. Adjustment to a new role is not easy, especially if the pregnancy is accompanied by risks, so it is necessary to get treatment to minimize complications. Dyad models that optimize husband or family support are very important to prevent the risk of complications and adapt mothers to their new roles. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the dyad model on high-risk pregnancies. The method used with a literature review is through the collection of articles from Scopus, ebsco, ProQuest and PubMed. The results obtained were articles from Scopus 9, Ebsco 107, PubMed 214 and ProQuest 85 which carried out identification, screening and eligibility for 25 articles. Overall results mention. Journals are categorized into 4 groups, Dyad Model and social support, high-risk pregnancy, maternal role and Self Efficacy. Conclusion, there is an effect of the dyad model on care for high-risk pregnancies.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0679.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Syncope; Emergency Department; Diagnosis; Risk stratification
Online: 29 March 2021 (10:44:36 CEST)
Background and Objectives: Overuse and inappropriate use of testing and hospital admission are common in syncope evaluation and management. Though guidelines are available to optimize syncope care, study suggested that the current clinical guidelines have not significantly impacted resource utilization surrounding emergency department (ED) evaluation of syncope. Matching implementation strategies to barriers and facilitators and tailoring strategies to local context hold significant promise for a successful implementation of clinical practice guideline (CPG). Our team applied implementation science principles to develop a stakeholder-based implementation strategy. Methods and Materials: We partnered with patients, family caregivers, frontline clinicians and staff, and health system administrators at four health systems to conduct quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews for context assessment. The identification of implementation strategies was done by applying the CFIR-ERIC Implementation Strategy Matching Tool and soliciting stakeholders’ inputs. We then co-designed with patients and frontline teams, developed and tested specific strategies. Results: 114 clinicians completed surveys and 32 clinicians and stake-holders participated in interviews. Results from the surveys and interview indicated low awareness of syncope guidelines, and communication challenges with patients, lack of CPG protocol integration into ED workflows, and organizational process to change were recognized as major barriers. Thirty-one patients and their family caregivers participated in interviews and ex-pressed their expectations: clarity regarding their diagnosis, context surrounding care plan and diagnostic testing, and a desire to feel cared about. After identifying change methods to address those barriers, the multilevel, multicomponent implementation strategy, MISSION, included pa-tient educational materials, mentored implementation, academic detailing, Syncope Optimal Care Pathway and corresponding Mobile App, and Lean quality improvement methods. The pilot of MISSION demonstrated feasibility, acceptability and initial success on appropriate testing. Con-clusions: Effect multifaceted implementation strategies that target individuals, teams, and healthcare systems can be employed to plan successful implementation and promote adherence to syncope CPGs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0551.v1
Online: 27 January 2021 (10:24:09 CET)
The data for the study on the epidemiology of bovine mastitis were collected fromNovember 2015 to February 2016 to investigate the prevalence of mastitis in administrative towns of three selected districts of Arsi zone, Oromia Regional State, namely Iteya, Sagure, and Asella, Ethiopia; and to analyze the association between the risk factors and mastitis occurrence. Sample cows were selected and examined for clinical mastitis and at the same time, milk samples were evaluated both clinically and using the California Mastitis Test (CMT). Some parameters of the cows which have biological relation with this disease together with other potential risk factors were collected along with primary data collection. The analysis of the primary data showed that overall mastitis prevalence in the locations covered by the study was 28.6% of which 83.3% was subclinical, while 16.7% were clinical mastitis cases. Analysis related to the investigation of the existence of an association between risk factors and mastitis revealed that there was a significant association between the occurrence of mastitis and two of the risk factors evaluated, breed and age of the cow. The other risk factors investigated (i.e. parity, location, and lactation stage had no significant association with mastitis occurrence). Since mastitis is a complex disease that results from the interaction of different factors, it may be difficult to limit it to only some given factors. Environment and management factors and their combination may also have an additional impact on the epidemiology of the disease. A prevalence with the indicated magnitude together with the added effect of a lower level of awareness of the society about milk-associated zoonoses implies that this disease causes significant public health problems. In addition, mastitis may cause silent economic loss through unnoticed production loss along with reduced milk yield from subclinical and clinical (e.g. blind teats) cases. Due to a lack of awareness about mastitis and/or negligence, farmers in all corners of the country are suffering from economic and public health problems imposed by mastitis. This lack of awareness about mastitis-associated problems and/or negligence could be a possible reason for the use of raw milk which is a common scenario particularly in pastoral areas and the selling of adulterated milk which is becoming increasingly practiced in Ethiopia which is also true in these specific localities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0371.v1
Online: 15 December 2020 (10:35:17 CET)
Abstract: The study aimed to determine the factors associated with the avoidance of dental preventive care in adolescents and their parents in the framework of The Youth and Parents Risk Factor Behavior Survey in Slovakia has been initiated during the years 2015/2016. The data were collected using two separate standardized questionnaires: (i) the questionnaire for adolescents (n=515) and (ii) the questionnaire for parents (n=681). The study group consisted of 57 adolescents (54.4% males) who did not visit the dentist for preventive care in the previous year. The control group consisted of 458 adolescents (35.8% males) who visited a dentist for preventive care at least once in the previous year. A significantly higher number of males (54.4%), older adolescents (21.4%) were not visiting dental preventive care regularly. Incomplete family (56.1%), stressful situations at home (17.5%), and feeling unwell were observed as the factors contributing to the avoidance of dental preventive care. More than 34.5% of adolescents were not visiting either dental preventive care but also pediatric preventive care (AOR=5.14; 95%CI=2.40, 10.99). Divorced mothers and mothers with household income lower than 900 € had significantly higher dental care avoidance in their children. A significantly higher percentage of fathers from the exposed group were not visiting dental preventive care regularly (47.8%; p< .05). The results of the study can be used as an educational intervention steps focusing on the influence of parental and adolescent behavior in dental preventive care.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0391.v3
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Other Keywords: COVID-19; risk analysis; heuristic; probability; ascertainment; vaccination
Online: 12 January 2021 (12:26:41 CET)
This paper provides a framework for the assessment of household-level risk, incorporating both a individual social risk perspective and a location-based perspective. We use this framework as a heuristic to explore the effect of social reintegration choices individuals face, which are not be addressed by current policies. For example, we explore how integrating extended family households during COVID-19 without social distancing may affect household and community risk. The goal is to aid individual decision makers, who are seeking to maintain quality-of-life while navigating local policy, with nuance relating to location-specific behavior and disease prevalence.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0433.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: COVID 19; Risk Zone; Empirical parameters
Online: 26 May 2020 (13:21:57 CEST)
All transmission disease depends on the transmission opportunity or medium like humans in COVID-19. Due to globalization and regular movement of people from one country to another, spread of COVID 19 reached to 208 countries till May 10, 2020. For any society health is major concern for humanity as well as administration. Any pandemic is declared as and when it reached at a particular severity level and control vice versa. So, we have continued the daily COVID 19 cases analysis and segregated till May 10, 2020. We have included at least 25 countries for the analysis purpose due to limitation of number of observations in the analysis. Maximum number of day’s data available for China is for 100 days, followed by Iran for 81 days, minimum number of days data is for 16 days for Western Sahara and Tajikistan.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0280.v1
Online: 25 September 2019 (09:09:06 CEST)
This paper models and estimates the volatility of nonfinancial, innovative and hi-tech focused stock index, the Nasdaq-100, using univariate symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We employ GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH using daily data over the period January 4, 2000 through March 19, 2019. We find that the volatility shocks on the index returns are quite persistent. Furthermore, our findings show that the index has leverage effect, and the impact of shocks is asymmetric, whereby the impacts of negative shocks on volatility are higher than those of positive shocks of the same magnitude.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0210.v1
Online: 21 February 2019 (13:30:48 CET)
Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0135.v1
Online: 14 February 2019 (11:30:03 CET)
Based on a rich data set of recoveries donated by a debt collection business, recovery rates for non-performing loans taken from a single European country are modelled using linear regression, linear regression with Lasso, beta regression and inflated beta regression. We also propose a two-stage model: beta mixture model combined with a logistic regression model. The proposed model allows us to model the multimodal distribution we find for these recovery rates. All models are built using loan characteristics, default data and collections data prior to purchase by the debt collection business. The intended use of the models is to estimate future recovery rates for improved risk assessment, capital requirement calculations and bad debt management. They are compared using a range of quantitative performance measures under K-fold cross validation. Among all the models, we find that the proposed two-stage beta mixture model performs best.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0020.v1
Online: 1 October 2018 (17:07:21 CEST)
Contract between grower and integrator has been used extensively in broiler industry all over the world. One important advantages of contract is risk management, in which contract shifts a portion of grower risk to integrator. Thus, this paper attempted to measure the amount of risk shifted from grower to integrator and the consequences of this benefit to grower. Using a panel data of actual production records of 46 Indonesian broiler growers for the period of January 2014 through December 2017, we systematically measure the amount of risk shifted to integrator and its consequences to grower. The results showed that 78.43% grower risk is shifted to integrator. However, to acquire this benefit grower receive 15% less income. Furthermore, grower face the possibility of losing their asset and stopping their production as the consequences of entering contract.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0155.v1
Online: 19 March 2018 (10:45:19 CET)
The effects of buckwheat intake on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have not been systematically investigated. The aim of the present study was to comprehensively summarise studies in humans and animals evaluating the impact of buckwheat consumption on CVD risk markers and to conduct a meta-analysis of relevant data. Thirteen randomised, controlled human studies, two cross-sectional human studies and twenty-one animal studies were identified. Using random effects models, the weighted mean difference of post-intervention concentrations of blood glucose, total cholesterol and triglycerides were significantly decreased following buckwheat intervention compared with controls [differences in blood glucose: -0.85 mmol/L (95% CI: -1.31, -0.39), total cholesterol: 0.50 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.80, -0.20) and triglycerides: 0.25 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.49, -0.02)]. Responses of a similar magnitude were seen in two cross-sectional studies. For animal studies, nineteen of twenty-one studies showed a significant reduction in total cholesterol of between 12 and 54%, and fourteen of twenty studies showed a significant reduction in triglycerides of between 2 and 74%. All exhibited high unexplained heterogeneity. There was inconsistency in HDL cholesterol outcomes in both human and animal studies. It remains unclear whether increased buckwheat intake significantly benefits other markers of CVD risk, such as weight, blood pressure, insulin, and LDL-cholesterol, and underlying mechanisms responsible for any effects are unclear.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0089.v1
Online: 14 December 2017 (11:06:18 CET)
The current study aimed to: i) Monitor levels of PM10, at Shebika, Haram, Masfala, Azizia, Awali and Mina in Makkah city, KSA during the period of 01 Shawwal 1436H – 27 Rabi Al-Awwal 1437H, by using LVS instruments; and; 2) assess health risk (non-cancer and cancer risks) on humans (children and adult) exposed to PM10 in ambient air of Makkah city.The results showed that: the high PM10 levels were found in Haram site, while the lower levels were found in Awali site. These levels were lower than that set for PM10 by PME (Daily limit of 340 µg/m3). Vehicles emissions and constructions sources may be the main source of PM10 levels in Makkah city. The human health risk assessments showed that: the daily exposure doses of PM10 were ranked in the order: Ding > Ddermal > Dinh for children and adult in Makkah city. Ingestion of PM10 particles was the main exposure pathway for both children and adults. The HIs and cancer risk values were within the safe level, indicating that (non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic) risks for humans exposed to PM10 in Makkah city were negligible.
DATA DESCRIPTOR | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0088.v3
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: pesticide dissipation; risk assessment; environmental fate
Online: 28 August 2017 (16:51:22 CEST)
Data relating to the rate at which pesticide active substances dissipate on or within various plant matrices are important for a range of different risk assessments; however, despite the importance of this data, dissipation rates are not included in the most common online data resources. Databases have been collated in the past, but these tend not to be maintained or regularly updated. The purpose of the exercise described herein was to collate a new database in a format compatible with the main online pesticide database resource (the Pesticide Properties Database, PPDB), to validate this database in line with the Pesticide Properties Database protocols and thus ensure that the data is maintained and updated in future. Data was collated using a systematic review approach using several scientific databases. Collated literature was subjected to a quality assessment, and then data was extracted into an MS Excel spreadsheet. The outcome of the study is a database based on data collated from 1390 published articles covering over 400 pesticides and over 200 crops across a wide variety of different matrices (leaves, fruits, seeds etc.) for pesticide residues on the crop surface, as well as residues absorbed within the plant material. This data is now fully incorporated into the PPDB.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0054.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Information Technology & Data Management Keywords: Risk assessment; Evidential reasoning; Fire/explosion
Online: 9 November 2016 (10:29:29 CET)
This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0005.v2
Online: 3 November 2016 (08:39:30 CET)
Severe early childhood caries remains the most common chronic disease affecting children. Its multifactorial etiology has established a controversy about which risk factors were more significant to its development. Therefore our study aimed through meticulous statistical analysis to arrange the “well agreed upon” common risk factors in order of significance, to aid the clinician in tailoring an adequate preventive program for this affected age group. The study reshuffled the risk factors contributing to severe early childhood caries and placed them in the order of their significance as follows: snacking of sugary food several times a day, increased number of siblings to 3 or more, night feeding, child self-employed brushing, mother caries experience, 2 siblings, on demand feeding, once/day sugary food, sharing utensils, 1 Sibling, male gender, father’s education, late first child dental visit, brushing time, mother’s education, no dental visit, decreased brushing frequency & no night brushing.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0058.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: climate risk; climate change; public perception
Online: 6 August 2016 (04:59:47 CEST)
Even though Greece is considered a vulnerable region in terms of climate hazards, public perception and attitude do not always identify climate change as an important environmental area of concern, especially when compared to socio-economic issues. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this paper analyses trends that exist, peoples’ opinion and awareness with regards to climate risk and how willing they are to change current lifestyle, to pay or to act to minimize or to prevent the risk. Conventional wisdom of this paper is to highlight factors that influence individual perception and point out drivers of behavior change that can support efficiently future adaptation plans.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0226.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Analysis Keywords: Supply Chain Management (SCM); Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM); risk modelling; time-series analysis; machine learning
Online: 20 January 2020 (10:21:00 CET)
Risk modelling along with multi-objective optimization problems have been at theepicenter of attention for supply chain managers. In this paper, we introduce a datasetfor risk modelling in sophisticated supply chain networks based on formal mathematical models. We have discussed the methodology and simulation tools used to synthesize the dataset. Additionally, the underlying mathematical models are discussed in granular details along with providing directions to conducting statistical analyses or neural machine learning models. The simulation is performed using MATLAB ™Simulink and the models are illustrated as well.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0024.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: contextual risk factors; gender; individual risk factors; life-work interference; self-employed; wellbeing; work-life interference
Online: 3 July 2018 (05:56:36 CEST)
This study explores individual and contextual risk factors for the onset of work interfering with private life (WIL) and private life interfering with work (LIW) among self-employed men and women across European countries. It also studies the relationship between interference (LIW and WIL) and wellbeing among self-employed men and women and the effect of macro level risk factors. Data from the fifth round of European Working Conditions Survey was utilized and a sample of self-employed men and women with active businesses was extracted. Applying multilevel regressions, results show that though business characteristics are important for level of WIL, time demand is the most evident risk factor for WIL and LIW. There is a relationship between wellbeing and WIL and LIW respectively, and time demands is the most important factor in this relationship. Gender equality on the labor market did not relate to level of interference, nor did it mediate the relationship between interference and wellbeing. However, the main and most important risk factor for experiencing WIL and LIW and for how interference relate to wellbeing is gender relation processes in work and life, both on individual and contextual level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0757.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: food security; global catastrophic risk; resilience; pandemic; existential risk; COVID-19; soybeans; agriculture; chickens; rabbits; distributed production
Online: 28 April 2021 (15:42:45 CEST)
To safeguard against meat supply shortages during pandemics or other catastrophes, this study analyzed the potential to provide the average household’s entire protein consumption using either soybean production or distributed meat production at the household level in the U.S. with: 1) pasture-fed rabbits, 2) pellet and hay-fed rabbits, or 3) pellet-fed chickens. Only using the average backyard resources, soybean cultivation can provide 80%-160% of household protein and 0%-50% of a household’s protein needs can be provided by pasture-fed rabbits using only the yard grass as feed. If external supplementation of feed is available, raising 52 chickens while also harvesting the concomitant eggs or alternately 107 grain-fed rabbits can meet 100% of an average household’s protein requirements. These results show that resilience to future pandemics and challenges associated with growing meat demands can be incrementally addressed through backyard distributed protein production. Backyard production of chicken meat, eggs, and rabbit meat reduces environmental costs of protein due to savings in production, transportation, and refrigeration of meat products and even more so with soybeans. Generally, distributed production of protein was found to be economically competitive with centralized production of meat if distributed labor costs were ignored.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0153.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pharmacology & Toxicology Keywords: unrecorded alcohol; home-produced fruit spirits; metals; lead; cadmium; ethanol; health risk; risk assessment; margin of exposure
Online: 10 March 2020 (02:44:16 CET)
Unrecorded alcohol comprises all types of alcohol that is not registered in the jurisdiction where it is consumed. In some countries in Central and Eastern parts of Europe as well as the Balkan, the major amount of unrecorded alcohol consumption may derive from homeproduction of fruit spirits. Some studies found a high prevalence of lead and cadmium in such spirits. This article provides a quantitative comparative risk assessment using the margin of exposure (MOE) methodology for lead and cadmium, compared to ethanol, for unrecorded fruit spirits. For average concentration levels, the lowest MOE (0.8) was calculated for ethanol (alcohol itself). For lead, the MOE was 13 for moderate daily drinking and 0.9 for the worst case. For cadmium, the MOE was 1982 for moderate daily drinking and 113 for the worst case. The results of this study are consistent with previous comparative risk assessments that ethanol itself comprises by far the highest risk of all compounds in alcoholic beverages. Regarding the metal contaminants, the risk of cadmium appears negligible, however, lead may pose an additional health risk in heavy drinking circumstances. Strategies to avoid metal contamination in settings of artisanal homeproduction of spirits need to be developed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0499.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: HAPE; risk factors; echocardiography; pulmonary pressure; workload
Online: 30 August 2022 (03:18:35 CEST)
Background: At altitudes beyond 2500 m the risk of developing high altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE) grows with the increases in pulmonary arterial pressure. HAPE is characterized by severe pulmonary hypertension, though the incidence and relevance of individual risk factors are not yet predictable. However, the systolic pulmonary pressure (SPAP) and peak in tricuspid regurgitation velocity (TVR) are crucial factors when diagnosing pulmonary hypertension by echocardiography. Methods: The SPAP and TVR of 27 trekkers aged 20-65 years en route in the Solu Khumbu region of Nepal was assessed. Echocardiograph measurements were performed at Lukla (2,860 m), Gorak Shep (5170 m), and the summit of Kala Patthar (5,675 m). The altitude profile and the participant’s characteristics were also compiled for correlation with the measured data. Results: The results showed a highly significant increase of SPAP and TVR after ascending Kala Patthar. The study revealed a lower increase of SPAP and TVR in the group of older participants, although the initial respective measurements in Gorak Shep were significantly higher for this group. A similar finding occurred in those using Diamox® as prophylaxis. There was an inverse relationship between TVR and SPAP, the peripheral capillary oxygen saturation and heart rate. Conclusions: The echocardiograph results indicate that older people are a risk group for developing a HAPE. The prophylactic use of acetazolamid led to higher initial SPAP values in Gorak Shep, and a lower increase of SPAP as well as TRV after ascending Kala Patthar. Arterial oxygen saturation measurements can provide an indicator for the self-assessment for the risk of developing HAPE and provide a rule of thumb for the altitude profile but does not replace a HAPE diagnosis. The collected data variables concerning backpack weight, sex, workload (actual ascent speed), and pre-existing diseases were not statistically significant factors related to SPAP and TVR (p=<0.05).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0162.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: COVID-19, Cryptocurrency Return, Risk, Transaction Volume
Online: 8 August 2022 (13:48:44 CEST)
Cryptocurrencies are now the most popular investment instruments among millenials. Crypto offers great returns in a short period of time. Prior to COVID-19, Crypto experienced significant price fluctuations accompanied by an increase in the number of high transaction volumes. This situation was disrupted by the presence of the COVID-19 which made the world economy devastated, marked by the decline of stock prices in the world, especially in Indonesia. A paired test was conducted in this study to compare the state of Crypto before and during COVID-19 with the variables of Risk, Transaction Volume, Return, and Sharpe Performance. The results showed that there was a significant difference in the variables of Transaction Volume and Return. However, there was no significant difference in the Risk and Sharpe performance before and during COVID-19. This study shows that despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the enthusiasm of investors who transact crypto assets is not affected and they still get returns in accordance with the investments made. The high risk will be followed by a high standard deviation, so that the Sharpe Performance is small. Cryptocurrencies still have many gaps to research, such as regulation, so that many countries have not legalized Crypto transactions. If there is no regulation for Crypto, it is certain that an increase in cybercrime harms crypto investors and threatens global financial stability. Nevertheles, with or without COVID-19, investment transactions gain and lose based on confidence in the limited market. Therefore, the success of confidence fluctuations in crypto encourages the emergence of alternative coins created by investors to conduct an Initial Coin Offering (ICO).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0417.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: COVID-19; Eswatini; risk mapping; Poisson regression
Online: 31 May 2022 (11:04:12 CEST)
COVID-19 national spikes had been reported at varying temporal scales as a result of differences in the driving factors. Factors affecting case load and mortality rates have varied between countries and regions. We investigated the association between various socio-economic, demographic and health variables with the spread on COVID-19 cases in Eswatini using the maximum likelihood estimation method for count data. A generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model was fitted with the data comprising of fifteen covariates to predict COVID-19 risk in Eswatini. The results showed that variables that were key determinants in the spread of the disease were those that included the proportion of elderly above 55 years at 98% (95% CI: 97%-99%) and the proportion of youth below 35 years at 0.08% (95% CI: 0.017%-38%) with a pseudo R-square of 0.72. However, in the early phase of the virus when cases were fewer, results from the Poisson regression showed that household size, household density and poverty index were associated with COVID-19. We produced a risk map of predicted COVID-19 in Eswatini using the variables that were selected at 5% significance level. The map could be used by the country to plan and prioritize health interventions against COVID-19. The identified areas of high risk may be further investigated in order to find out the risk amplifiers and assess what could be done to prevent them.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0014.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pediatrics Keywords: screen view time; children; risk factors; India
Online: 4 April 2022 (10:57:14 CEST)
Screen viewing time is the total time spent by a child on any digital/electronic device. The objective of the present study was to determine the incidence and predictors of excessive screen viewing time in children in Ujjain, India. This cross-sectional, community-based study was conducted through house-to-house survey by using the three-stage cluster sampling method in 36 urban wards and 36 villages of Ujjain district, India. Excessive screen viewing time was defined as screen viewing for > 2 h/day. The prevalence of excessive screen viewing time was 17.83%. Risk factors identified using the multivariate logistic regression model were: age (OR: 1.5, P < 0.001); mobile phone use before bedtime (OR: 3.17, P = 0.008); parents’ perception about the child habituated to screen (OR: 14.03, P < 0.001); television in bedroom (OR: 48.69, P < 0.001); morning mobile screen viewing time (OR: 9.27, P < 0.001); not reading books other than textbooks (OR: 9.71, P < 0.001); and lack of outdoor play for >2 h (OR: 4.20, P < 0.001). Presence of eye pain was a protective factor for excessive screen viewing time (OR: 0.12, P = 0.011). The study identified multiple modifiable risk factors for excessive screen viewing time.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0015.v1
Online: 1 September 2021 (12:18:07 CEST)
Several factors enhance the possibility of vertical HIV transmission in the pediatric population. Unfortunately, the data of the prevalence of HIV and associated risk factors in these populations remain limited in Rwanda. The study aimed to assess HIV prevalence and risk factors for infants born to mothers on ARV treatment at CHUB/Rwanda. MethodsA cross-sectional study was carried out on infants who were born to mothers under ARV treatment at CHUB. The associated risk factors were retrospectively assessed using prevention vertical HIV transmission records, and Dried Blood spots (DBS) were prospectively tested using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Data were analyzed by logistic regression. Ethical clearance (Ref: CMHS/IRB/198/2017) was issued by University of Rwanda to fulfill research ethical consideration.ResultsAmong 185(100%) infants born to HIV-positive mothers under ARV treatment, 5(2.7%) were HIV positive. The most associated risk factors were increased to over 1log copies/ml mother’s viral load (OR 9.3, 95% CI 1.01-85.45, P= 0.04) and mother’s CD4 count lower than 350 cells/µl (OR 6.4, 95% CI 1.03-40.06, P=0.04). The factors found to reduce the rate of vertical transmission of HIV were health facility as a delivery place (P=0.03), exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months (P= 0.006), and attending the antenatal care (P=0.01) while feeding children and vaginal delivery were associated risks but not statistically significant.ConclusionThe current study supports that the more mothers’ viral load and CD4 count decrease, so does the risk of HIV to their infants. A fact which indicates that both prevalence and risk factors remain an alarming issue. Much effort and multi-disciplinary approach are highly recommended.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0680.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: NEC; Surgical; Medical; Risk factor; Outcome; Neonate
Online: 30 July 2021 (09:11:09 CEST)
Background: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is one of the leading causes of death in newborns, however, little is understood of which patients can be treated medically or require surgery. The purpose of our study is to analyze the associated factors of surgically treated patients compared to patients requiring only medical treatment. Methods: Patients diagnosed with necrotizing enterocolitis over a period of 14 years in a single children’s hospital were retrospectively enrolled. Demographics and clinical data patients were collected and analyzed. Results: A total of 189 patients with NEC were included. Surgically treated patients had a lower gestational age (P = .018), body weight at birth (P = .034), and percentage of exclusive breast milk feeding (P= .001). They had increased comorbidity with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) (P = .005), number of days of antibiotic use (P = .014), and length of hospital stay (P = .000). In multivariate logistic analysis, a lower percentage of exclusive breast milk feeding (OR = 0.366, 95% CI: 0.164-0.817) and a longer hospital stay (OR = 1.010, 95% CI: 1.001- 1.019) was associated with surgical NEC. Conclusion: Comparing medical and surgical NEC, a significantly lower percentage of surgical NEC patients were exclusively fed breast milk and their hospital stays were longer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0064.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: CINV; breast cancer; antiemetic guidelines; risk factors
Online: 2 June 2021 (10:06:30 CEST)
Aims: To assess the occurrence of Chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) after standard antiemetic therapy in the acute (24 h post-chemotherapy) and delayed (2–5 days post-chemotherapy) phases, as well as to identify risk factors for CINV in the acute and delayed phases. Methods: This prospective longitudinal and observational study analyzed the data of 400 breast cancer patients scheduled for chemotherapy over two cycles in two hospitals. The self-report survey was developed to assess the occurrence of CINV and their associated factors. CINV was evaluated with a Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer Antiemetic Tool (MAT) on days 2 and 6 of chemotherapy. The incidence of acute and delayed CINV were presented by frequency and percentage. Generalized equation estimates (GEE) was used to identify risk factors of acute and delayed CINV. Results: There were 400 evaluable patients with complete Round 1 data, 334 for Round 2 data. Among 400 patients, 29.8% and 23.5% experienced acute and delayed CINV, respectively. Risk factors associated with for acute CINV were pain/insomnia, history of CINV, history of motion sickness (MS), and highly emetogenic chemotherapy regimen, while history of MS, CINV history, number of completed chemotherapy cycle number < 3, and the incidence of acute CINV were risk factors of delayed CINV (all p < 0.05). Conclusions: The findings may help nurses working for Chinese population in identifying patients at risk for CINV and in planning effective program to reduce the occurrence of CINV.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0063.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: UAS; UAV; Risk assessment; SORA; disaster management
Online: 5 May 2021 (13:28:27 CEST)
Worldwide, there is a significant increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by emergency services. They offer a lot of possibilities during the rescue operation. Such a wide application for various purposes and environments causes many threats related to their use. To minimize the risks associated with conducting air operations with UAVs, the SORA methodology will be important. Due to its level of detail, it is a methodology adapted to civilian use. In this article, the authors' team will try to develop guidelines and directions for adapting SORA to the requirements of the operational work of emergency services. Thus following article aims to present the most important risks related to conducting operations with the use of UAVs by First Responders (FRs) and to show the sample risk analysis performed for this type of operation on the example of the ASSISTANCE project. The paper describes, on the one hand, possibilities offered by UAVs in crisis or disaster management and step-by-step Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) and on the other hand, presents possible threats, consequences and methods of their mitigation during FRs missions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0733.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: thoracic aorta; atherosclerosis; vascular calcification; risk factors
Online: 30 March 2021 (11:42:32 CEST)
Thoracic aortic calcium (TAC) appears to be a subclinical marker of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to predict CV mortality. However, studies on TAC use tomographic scans obtained for coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, which does not include the aortic arch. This study evaluates TAC prevalence in aortic arch (AAC), ascending (ATAC) and descending thoracic aorta (DTAC) and verify whether they are associated with the same CV risk factors. Cross-sectional analysis, including 2,427 participants (mean age 55.6 ± 8.7; 54,1% women) of the ELSA-Brasil cohort. Nonenhanced ECG-gated tomographies were performed in 2015-2016. Multivariable logistic regression estimated the CV risk factors associated with calcium in each segment. Overall prevalence of ATAC, AAC and DTAC was, 23,1%, 62.1%, and 31.2%, respectively. About 90.4% of the individuals with TAC had AAC and only 19.5% had calcium in all segments. In the multivariable analysis, increasing age, lower levels of schooling, current smoking, higher body mass index, and hypertension remained associated with calcium in all segments. No sex or race/ethnicity differences were found in any aortic segment. Diabetes and Dyslipidemia were associated with ATAC and DTAC, but not with AAC, suggesting that AAC may reflect an overlap of mechanisms that impact vascular health, including atherosclerosis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0378.v1
Subject: Chemistry, Analytical Chemistry Keywords: DON; corn; corn products; exposure; risk assessment
Online: 15 March 2021 (12:04:05 CET)
The study focused on investigating the natural incidence of deoxynivalenol (DON) in corn and products from corn producing districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The analysis was carried out using HPLC with UV detector and immunoaffinity cleanup columns. The detection limit (LOD) and limit of quantification were 25 and 50 µg/kg, respectively. Total 1220 samples of corn and products were analyzed to detect the DON, and 539 (44.2%) samples were observed to be contaminated with DON (n ≥ LOD). Furthermore, 92 (7.5%) samples of corn & products have DON levels, elevated than the proposed limits of the EU. The data is significantly different from a normal distribution for DON in corn and products samples and from different locations (p < 0.05) for Shapiro-Wilk and Kolmogorov-Smirnov values. However, a significant difference in DON levels was found between corn and corn derived-products types (p ≤ 0.05). The lowest and highest exposure & hazard quotient (HQ) of 0.92 and 9.68 µg/kg bw/d were documented in cornflour samples.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0519.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: rockfall; failure; propagation; hazard; risk; probability; frequency
Online: 23 February 2021 (14:23:02 CET)
There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests to use terms that appear to be the more logic and explicit as possible, and describes methods to derive some of the main hazard and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized hazards and diffused hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the propagation probability and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (reach frequency) can be derived. However, when the element at risk is not replaced or repaired, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall must be considered.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0572.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: waterlogging; vulnerability; risk; participatory survey; GIS; Chattogram
Online: 27 January 2021 (16:48:08 CET)
In recent years, rainfall-induced waterlogging has become a common hazard in the highly urbanized coastal city of Chattogram, Bangladesh resulting in high magnitude of property damage and economic loss. Therefore, the primary objective of this research is to prepare a waterlogging inventory map and understand the spatial variation of the risk by means of hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerability of waterlogging. In this research, the inventory map and factors influencing waterlogging hazard were determined from a participatory survey and other spatial data including land elevation, population, and structural data were collected from secondary sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process was applied to measure the hazard intensity and the exposure and vulnerability were estimated by overlaying the spatial data onto the hazard intensity map. A total of 58 locations in 22 wards have been identified as waterlogging affected, which covers ~8.42% of the city area. Obtained waterlogging vulnerability index map suggests that ward no. 5, 6, 16, 17, and 33 are greatly vulnerable to waterlogging in terms of their social, infrastructure, critical facilities, economic and environmental vulnerability. We show that ~2.71% of the study area is at very high risk, while the risk score is considerably higher for ward no. 5, 8, 17, 19, and 33.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0027.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: landslide; rockfall; risk; stochastic; uncertainty; transportation corridors
Online: 4 January 2021 (12:17:48 CET)
Based on a previous risk calculation study along a road corridor, risk is recalculated using stochastic simulation by introducing variability for most of the parameters in the risk equation. This leads to an exceedance curve comparable to that of catastrophe models. This approach introduces uncertainty into the risk calculation in a simple way, which can be used for poorly documented cases to fulfil lack of data. This approach seems to tend to minimize risk or to question risk calculations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0191.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: stocks portfolio; loss risk; heteroscedastic; VaR; backtesting
Online: 9 October 2020 (09:04:18 CEST)
Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the value at risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroscedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio formed from Astra Agro Lestari Ltd (AALI) and Indofood Ltd (INDF) stocks from 10/02/2012 to 10/01/2019. The results showed that the best model is ARIMA(0,0,)-GARCH(1,2) with AIC of -5.604 and MSE 1.874e-07.At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the ARIMA(0,0,)-GARCH(1,2) was -0.3464. Based on the backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the violation ratio (VR) is equal to 0.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0235.v1
Online: 10 August 2020 (04:45:36 CEST)
Background: Twitter is a major tool for communication in emergencies such as natural disasters. This online social network allows the user to produce content, and it is not designed exclusively for news releases, as opposed to other service providers. Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate Twitter uses in natural disasters and pandemics. Methods: The included studies reported the role of Twitter in natural disasters. The studies that report in settings other than the natural disasters (such as man-made disasters) and other social media were excluded. Electronic databases for a comprehensive literature search including MEDLINE, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and EMBASE were used to identify the records that match the mentioned inclusion criteria published till May 2020. The study characteristics were extracted from the qualified studies including year of publication, findings, and geographical location of the study conduct. A narrative synthesis for this literature review was used. Results: The search identified 822 articles of which 780 articles were removed, 256 were not available, 311 papers were not relevant, 16 were duplicated articles, and 197 were non-related to the emergencies. 45 articles met the selection criteria and were included in the review. eleven themes were found in the narrative synthesis including early warning, disseminating information and misinformation, advocacy, personal gains, assessment, various roles of organizations, public mood, geographical analysis, charity, using influencers, and trust. Conclusions: It is recommended that influential individuals be identified in each country and community before disasters occur so that the necessary information can be disseminated in response to disasters. Preventing the spread of misinformation is one of the most important issues in times of disaster, especially pandemics. Disseminating accurate, transparent, and prompt information from relief organizations and governments can help. Also, analyzing Twitter data can be a good source for understanding the mental state of the community, estimating the number of injured people, estimating the points affected by natural disasters, and modeling the prevalence of epidemics. Therefore, various groups such as politicians, the government, non-governmental organizations, aid workers, and the health system can use this information to plan and implement interventions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0087.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Other Keywords: sustainable land management; adoption; risk; upland; Vietnam
Online: 8 October 2019 (10:50:40 CEST)
This study investigates how the determinants including risk preference affect farmers’ decision to adopt SLM practices in upland areas of Vietnam. Empirical data collected through in-depth interviews with 200 farmers in Na Ri district, Bac Kan province were used. The factors affecting SLM adoption of farmers in Na Ri district were examined by the 2SLS or IV-Probit model. The estimated 2SLS regression indicated that there is a set of factors affecting SLM adoption, namely, relative risk aversion, farming experience, farm size, knowledge of SLM, membership in farmers’ organization, number of labors, and slope of farm land. Specifically, relative risk aversion had a negative effect on SLM practices adoption. The farmers who are less risk averse are more likely to adopt more SLM practices. This implies that reducing farmer’ risk exposure could promote SLM practices. This result is also helpful for policymakers to understand farmers’ behaviors and promote the diffusion of SLM practices across regions on a large scale.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0086.v1
Online: 11 June 2019 (08:04:40 CEST)
Introduction and objectives: a close association between metabolic syndrome among subjects with erectile dysfunction has been addressed, since mechanisms underlying metabolic syndrome compromise the blood flow to the penis in numerous ways. This study aims to analyze the relationship between erectile dysfunction and metabolic syndrome in a group of Mexican patients, to study the influence of other morbidity factors on erectile dysfunction, and to define the specific metabolic syndrome components most associated with erectile dysfunction severity. Methods: a descriptive and cross-sectional study was completed in a group of 86 adult Mexican patients with previous diagnosis of erectile dysfunction. Participants were classified as with or without metabolic syndrome. Erectile dysfunction severity, alcohol or tobacco consumption, and depressive behavior were identified through validated questionnaires and compared between both groups, as well as anthropometric, biochemical, and clinical parameters. Results: anthropometric measures, laboratory values, clinical characteristics and the Beck Depression Inventory score were significantly different among both groups. Additionally, more patients affected by severe and moderate erectile dysfunction were identified in the group with metabolic syndrome. Among the metabolic syndrome components, HbA1c >5.7% and fasting glucose >110 mg/dl were significantly associated to the development of erectile dysfunction (p = 0.004 and 0.04, respectively). Conclusions: metabolic syndrome components aggravate erectile dysfunction, particularly the lack of glycemic control manifested by Hb1Ac >5.7% and/or fasting glucose >110 mg/dL. The inclusion of fasting glucose and HbA1c as a complementary biochemical screening among patients with erectile dysfunction should be assessed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0092.v1
Subject: Biology, Agricultural Sciences & Agronomy Keywords: agricultural diversification; risk management; regret; portfolio; scenario
Online: 10 January 2019 (04:42:17 CET)
Diversification is an important strategy for managing risk in agricultural systems. Risk analysis can help to support farmers’ diversification strategies, but existing analytical methods are complicated and little used. The minimum regret model helps to fill this gap. It provides a simple, transparent calculation procedure that can be executed with existing spreadsheet software. Regret is an important heuristic in the behavioural sciences and regret-based models are used in finance. The article presents the model with a numerical example. It also presents a framework to compare minimum regret portfolios with two limit cases (maximum utility and minimax regret). A case study illustrates the use of the model and the comparative framework.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0138.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Clinical Neurology Keywords: dengue fever; transverse myelitis; risk; systematic review
Online: 12 December 2018 (05:22:13 CET)
Dengue virus (DENV) is the most common arbovirus disease, with wide spectrum of presentation. Spinal cord involvement in dengue infection (DF) is rare. However, the risk of transverse myelitis (TM) following Dengue has not been systematically assessed. Methods: We undertook a systematic review of the English literature published from January 1974 to December 2017 to assess risk of TM and outcomes following DF. Data sources included MEDLINE, EMBASE Cochrane library, and references within identified articles. Results: We identified 242 potential studies, 62 were duplicates. A further 136 were excluded on the basis of title and abstract and 19 studies did not meet the eligibility criteria on full text screening. We included 25 publications involving 2672 cases of DF. 10.8% (289/2672) had neurological complications, of which 2.3% (61/2672) was TM. For articles reporting epidemiological data, the neurological complication was twice in males compared to female 67.7% (130/192) vs 32.7% (62/192) and 1.5 fold increase TM for males 59.3% (32/54) vs 40.7% (22/54). The mean age at presentation was 33.1years (Range 0.75 – 61), with onset at 11.7days. The method of diagnosing TM due to DF was mainly IgM seropositivity 92% (n=23/25) and the commonest treatment modality was steroid 78.3% (n=18/23). Only half had full recovery 50.8% (n=31/61). There was no mortality following dengue, however, the crude case fatality rate following TM was 3.3% (n=2/61). Conclusion: This review highlights the risk of TM following dengue. Although neurological complications are rare, especially TM, once set in, it is associated with a significant morbidity.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0050.v2
Online: 9 November 2018 (04:28:29 CET)
Sulfotransferases (SULTs) family plays a significant role in the biotransformation of a variety of xenobiotics and endogenous compounds by which carcinogenesis and mutagenicity of different malignancies are increasingly affected. Recent data identified various genetically polymorphic SULTs enzymes with significant variations in the enzyme activity. This study aimed to investigate the impact of SULT1A1 gene polymorphism and and its potential risk on females with breast cancer in Jordan using a PCR-RFLP and Sanger Sequencing methods. The analysis showed that 24.7% of the patients and 25.3% of the controls were homozygous for the SULT1A1*1 allele (SULT1A1*1/SULT1A1*1) compared to 8.8% and 5.7% homozygous for the SULT1A1*2 allele (SULT1A1*2/SULT1A1*2) for patients and controls respectively. Most of the patients and controls were heterozygous for SULT1A1*1 allele (SULT1A1*1/SULT1A1*2) with rates of 66.5% and 69.0% in patients and controls respectively. In addition, the frequencies of the mutant SULT1A1*2 allele were 0.42 and 0.4 in the patient and control groups respectively. No significant difference in genotype and allele distribution was noted between the breast cancer and control groups. The risk of breast cancer in individuals carrying the SULT1A1*2 allele was determined by combining the SULT1A1*1/SULT1A1*2 and ULT1A1*2/SULT1A1*2 genotypes. No association was observed between SULT1A1 polymorphism and breast cancer incidence (P = 0.63; OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.68–1.26). However, SULT1A1*2 allele was found to increase the risk of breast cancer by 1.26-fold.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0084.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Genetics Keywords: Donkey; breeding; twinning; heritability; REML; risk factors
Online: 5 November 2018 (04:13:35 CET)
Multiple births or twinning in equids are dangerous, undesirable situations that compromise the life of the dam and resulting offspring. However, embryo vitrification and freezing techniques take advantage of individuals whose multiple ovulations allow flushing more fertilised embryos from the oviduct to be collected, increasing the productivity and profitability of such techniques. Embryo preservation is especially important in highly endangered populations such as certain donkey (Equus asinus) breeds; for which conventional reproductive techniques have previously failed. For instance, becoming an effective alternative to artificial insemination with frozen semen to preserve the individuals’ genetic material. The objective of this study was to examine the historical foaling records of Andalusian donkeys to estimate genetic parameters for multiple births, assessing the historical foal number born per animal, maximum foal number per birth and multiple birth number per animal. We designed an Animal Model with single records considering the fixed effects of birthyear, birth season, sex, farm, and husbandry system, and age as a linear and quadratic covariate. Restricted maximum likelihood reported heritability estimates ranging from 0.18±0.01 to 0.24±0.01. Genetic and phenotypic correlations ranged from 0.01±0.01 to 0.83±0.01 and 0.12±0.01 and 0.53±0.01, respectively. These estimates enable the potential for selection against/for these traits, offering a new perspective for donkey breeding and conservation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0156.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Health care risk waste, home-based caregivers
Online: 8 October 2018 (16:02:59 CEST)
The quadruple burden of diseases, early discharge from hospital and hospital at home have resulted in home-based care services becoming a requirement in South Africa. The home-based care services generate a significant amount of health care risk waste that is mismanaged. However, more attention is given to the health care risk waste generated in hospitals and clinics than to health care risk waste generated by home-based caregivers. Therefore, this study investigates the health care risk waste management practices by home-based caregivers. The study adopted a mixed research approach, qualitative and quantitative methods, using a literature review, interviews, and questionnaires as means of data collection. Results show that there are different types of health care risk waste generated as a result of different activities performed by home-based caregivers, but that the waste was found to be managed in an unsafe manner. The majority of households receiving home-based care did not have basic sanitation facilities such as toilets, running water and waste removal services, aggravating the issue of health care risk waste mismanagement. The study recommends a new policy framework that will lead to safe management practices of generated health care risk waste to be adopted by home-based caregivers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0607.v1
Subject: Chemistry, Applied Chemistry Keywords: Roasted Fish Skin, PAHs mutagenicity risk, Limonene
Online: 30 September 2018 (10:03:24 CEST)
Traditional edible barbecue products use with lemon juice not only make the barbecue more delicious but also reduce the risk of PAHs in the barbecue products. One of the major economics crops in Taiwan, the waste from citrus fruits was very tremendous mass. However, the peelings of citrus fruits are rich in essential oil, especially, the limonene is the major. Whether the anti-carcinogenesis activities of terpene, such as limonene, in citrus fruits essential oil extraction. This study to demonstrate the PAHs content in fish skin increased markedly after being roasted at 210℃ for 20 minutes and greater mutagenicity risk of roasted fish skin was observed by Ame's test. The reduction of mutagenicity risk of roasted fish skin, which the antimutagenic abilities of substances in descending order were limonene > cold pressure oil > lemon >grapefruit. The antimutagenicity rate and ability of the three extracts were limonene: 18–23%; cold-pressed lemon oil: 18–22%; and steam distilled lemon essential oil: 8–16%. The obvious anti- mutagenicity effects against the PAHs mutagenicity of roasted fish skins can be found in citrus fruits essential oil extraction.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0323.v1
Online: 17 September 2018 (16:11:45 CEST)
Fracking in the UK has yet to reach full industrial development but it is still subject to significant opposition. This study uses Beck’s Risk Society theory and anti-politics to examine the views voiced by opponents to fracking in Yorkshire, England. A qualitative approach was used; local newspaper reports were evaluated alongside semi-structured interviews with protesters to provide a thematic analysis. Although there are signs of post-materialist concerns with the environment these issues did not dominate the discussion. Scientists were not held responsible for the risks involved in fracking. Instead economic greediness of politicians and austerity measures were perceived as putting the environment and people’s health at risk. Interviewees thought fossil fuel energy production was economically advantaged over more sustainable energy and jobs in the low carbon economy. Protesters’ trust in politicians had been eroded but faith in democracy remained. It is suggested a citizen-led deliberative approach to all the concerns raised, not simply those relating to scientific risk, might achieve some level of resolution over fracking in the UK.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0163.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: smoking; pathologic stage; pathologic grade; low risk
Online: 10 July 2018 (10:00:46 CEST)
Introduction: We investigated the potential effect of smoking on pathological staging in clinically low-risk patients. Material-Methods: Data of 59 patients who were diagnosed with a bladder tumor for the first time and had a single lesion radiologically and endoscopically smaller than 3 cm were investigated, retrospectively. A total of 33 patients who currently smoke or smoked were classified as ever smokers group and 26 patients who did not ever smoke were classified as never smokers group. Pathological diagnoses of the patients in both groups were compared. Results: A total of 9 patients (27.3%) in ever smokers group and 18 patients (69.2%) in never smokers group had Ta disease (p<0.05). Morover, 19 patients (57.6%) in ever smokers group and 5 patients (19.2%) in never smokers group had T1 disease (p<0.05). The number of patients with low grade (LG) tumor were 8 (24.2%) and 19 (73.1%) in ever smoking and never smoking groups, respectively (p<0.05). The number of patients with high grade (HG) tumor were 25 (75.8%) and 7 (26.9%) in ever smoking and never smoking groups, respectively (p<0.05). Ta HG was detected in 9 (27.3%) patients in ever smoking group. In contrast, no patients in never smoking group had Ta HG disease (p<0.05). The number of patients with T1 HG was 17 (51.5%) in ever smoking group and 2 (7.69%) in never smoking group (p<0.05). Conclusion:Smoking seems to associate with pathologically worse stage and grade in patients with primary, single, < 3cm bladder cancer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0377.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: risk culture; honourable merchant; decision-making; responsibility
Online: 25 June 2018 (10:21:18 CEST)
The current discussion about a “risk culture” in financial services was triggered by the recent series of crisis (from the US subprime mortgage crisis to the lock-in trap of central banks in the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis). The last decade saw a long list of hybris, misconduct and criminal activities by human beings on a single or even a collective basis in banks, in the industry or in the whole economy. As a counter-reaction, financial authorities called for a guidance by a “new” risk culture in financial institutions based on a set of abstract, formal and normative governance processes. In the humanities, culture is a paraphrase for the behaviour in collectives and dynamics of organization found in human societies. Therefore, a “risk culture” should be a link between those normative guidelines and the positive “real-world” decision-making in financial services. This paper will focus on “risk culture” from the perspective of human beings interacting in dynamical and intertemporal commercial relations. In this context, “risk” is perceived by economic agents ex-ante as the consequence of the time-lag between the present and the uncertain future development (compared to a probability distribution calculated by observers ex-post). For all those individual decisions – to be made under uncertainty – future “risk” includes the so-called “normal accidents”, i.e. failures that will happen at some uncertain point in time but inevitable, and it is only the questions, when failure will happen and how to maintain function in the first line of defence. Finally, the sum of all decisions with individual responsibility for things to come is the positive economical context of a “risk culture” in the sense of the (rational) behaviour of an honourable merchant in long-term and repeated commercial relations in a merchant community, as this is a heritage of European business culture.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0320.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: smoking; pathologic stage; pathologic grade; low risk
Online: 23 May 2018 (08:48:03 CEST)
AbstractWe investigated the effect of cigarette smoking on pathological staging in clinically low-risk patients. Data of 59 patients who were diagnosed with bladder tumor for the first time and had a single lesion radiologically and endoscopically smaller than 3 cm were investigated retrospectively. 33 patients who smoked were classified as Group I, and 26 patients who did not smoke were classified as Group II. Pathological diagnoses of the patients in both groups were compared. The mean age of the patients were 64.8 (20–86) years. In Group II, 5 (19.2%) were female and 21 (80.8%) were male (p < 0.05). Nine patients (27.3%) in Group I and 18 patients (69.2%) in Group II had Ta disease (p < 0.05). Nineteen patients (57.6%) in Group I and 5 patients (19.2%) in Group II had T1 disease (p < 0.05). The number of patients with low grade (LG) tumor were 8 (24.2%) and 19 (73.1%) in Group I and in Group II, respectively (p < 0.05). The number of patients with high grade(HG) tumor were 25 (75.8%) and 7 (26.9%) in Group I and in Group II, respectively (p < 0.05). TaHG was detected in 9 (27.3%) patients in Group I. In contrast, no patients in Group II had TaHG disease (p < 0.05). The number of patients with T1HG was 17(51.5%) patients in Group I and 2 (7.69%) patients in Group II (p < 0.05). Smoking is associated with pathologically HG and stage in patients with first time bladder tumor which is single and smaller than 3 cm.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0042.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: geospatial economic supply; biomass; risk assessment; vulnerability
Online: 4 April 2018 (04:17:33 CEST)
Assessing the economic supply of biomass in a geospatial context while accounting for risk from natural disasters was studied. Risk levels were estimated from a component of factors which included: population density, road density, federal ownership, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ecoregions, and Presidential Disaster Declarations. The Presidential Disaster Declarations included risks due to: coastal storm, drought, fire, flood, freezing, hurricane, mud land slide, severe ices, severe storms, snow, tornado, and tropical storm. Presidential Disaster Declarations included summaries based on a short-term time period from 2000-2011, and on a long-term time period from 1964-2011. Risk categories were developed as a function of the number of disaster declarations, agricultural-to-forest land ratio, average road density, and average population density. A significant contribution of the research was the allocation of spatially explicit data using GIS technology at the 5-digit zip code tabulation area. The average area for 5-digit ZCTAs in the Eastern U.S. study region was approximately 169 kilometers2. Long-term risk (1964-2011) from disaster declarations had a greater impact on the economic availability of biomass supply relative to short-term declarations (2000-2011). The greatest risk to biomass supply came from population density relative to the other risk factors studies. Of the 25,044 total ZCTAs, 12,256 ZCTAs were in locations that did not include population density ≥ 150/km2, road density ≥ 14 km/km2, federal ownership, and US Environmental Protection Agency Level III ecoregions. Of the remaining 12,256 ZCTAs, 26.8% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on short-term declarations (2000-2011) and 29.4% were considered to be moderate-to-high risk based on long-term declarations (1964-2011). Lower risk locations for procuring biomass supply for both short-term and long-term declarations, across all risk factors, were in southern Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0120.v2
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: water distribution; management; mechanical reliability; risk assessment
Online: 13 February 2018 (16:04:12 CET)
The management of existing water distribution system (WDS) is challenged by ageing of infrastructure, population growth, increasing of urbanization, climate change impacts and environmental pollution. Therefore, there is a need for integrated solutions that support decision makers to plan today, while taking into account the effect of these factors in the mid and long term. The paper is part of a more comprehensive project, where advanced hydraulic analysis for WDS is coupled with a dynamic resources input-output analysis model. The proposed modeling solution can be used to optimize the performance of a water supply system while considering also the energy consumption and consequently the environmental impacts. Therefore, as a support tool in the management of a water supply system also in the intervention planning. Here a possible application is presented for rehabilitation/replacement planning while maximizing the network mechanical reliability and minimizing risk of unsupplied demand and pressure deficit, under given economic constraints.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0066.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: cardiovascular diseases; risk factors; nutrition; ecological study
Online: 8 February 2018 (03:22:54 CET)
The aim of this study was a large-scale ecological analysis of nutritional and other environmental factors potentially associated with the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the global context. Indicators of CVDs from 158 countries were compared with the statistics of mean intake (supply) of 60 food items between 1993 and 2011, obesity rates, health expenditure and life expectancy. This comparison shows that the relationship between CVD indicators (raised blood pressure, CVD mortality, raised blood glucose) and independent variables in the global context is influenced by various factors such as short life expectancy, religiously conditioned dietary customs, the imprecision of some statistics and undernutrition. However, regardless of the statistical method used, the results always show very similar trends and identify high carbohydrate consumption (mainly in the form of cereals and wheat in particular) as a dietary factor most consistently associated with the risk of CVDs. These findings are in line with the changing view of the causes of CVDs. Because only the statistics of raised blood glucose include people using medications and reflect true prevalence that is independent of healthcare, more objective data on the prevalence of CVDs are needed to confirm these observed trends.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201707.0082.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: thiazide diuretics; cardiovascular risk; osteoporosis; vertebral fractures
Online: 28 July 2017 (12:20:23 CEST)
An alleged association of chronic use of thiazide diuretics with an increased risk of bone fragility fractures has been highlighted by a relatively recent prospective cohort study (Am J Med. 2016 Dec; 129(12):1299-1306). However, the concept that thiazides exert a beneficial effect on osteoporosis is still a predominant view. This effect would be mediated by the decrease in renal clearance of calcium ions, a pharmacological feature recognized for a long time now to this class of drugs , as opposed to the increase in calcium urinary excretion attributed instead to loop diuretics, i.e. furosemide and similar drugs . The purpose of this retrospective study is to attempt to clarify whether regular use of thiazide diuretics as antihypertensive therapeutics is associated with a significantly increased risk of osteoporotic fractures in female patients, aged over 70 years.