ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0035.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: inflation risk; investment returns; life annuity; longevity risk; post-retirement benefits
Online: 7 December 2016 (10:27:23 CET)
Building a social security system to ensure Singapore residents have peace of mind in funding for retirement has been at the top of Singapore Government’s policy agenda over the last decade. Implementation of the Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) scheme in 2009 clearly shows that the government spares no effort in improving its pension scheme to boost its residents’ income after retirement. Despite the recent modifications to the LIFE scheme, Singapore residents must still choose between two plans: the Standard and Basic plans. To enhance the flexibility of the LIFE scheme while maintaining its simplicity, we propose some plan modifications such that scheme members do not face a dichotomy of plan choices. Instead, they select two age parameters: the Payout Age and the Life-annuity Age. This paper provides an actuarial framework for determining members’ payouts and bequests based on the proposed age parameters. We analyze the net cash receipts and internal rate of return (IRR) for various plan-parameter configurations. This information helps members make their plan choices. To address cost-of-living increases we propose to extend the plan to accommodate an annual step-up of monthly payouts. By deferring the Payout Age from 65 to 68, members can enjoy an annual increase of about 2% of the payouts for the same first-year monthly benefits.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0054.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: Risk assessment; Evidential reasoning; Fire/explosion
Online: 9 November 2016 (10:29:29 CET)
This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1180.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Keywords: enterprise risk management; corporate governance; risk; risk management; COVID-19
Online: 21 November 2023 (10:18:17 CET)
Enterprise risk management (ERM) was introduced in the 1990s and has become an expectation by boards of directors and regulators as a sign of good management and good corporate governance. However, many organizations struggle to implement ERM, and still seek practical ad-vice on ERM implementation. This article explains many of the reasons why organizations are unsuccessful in their efforts at implementation and provides practical solutions by an experienced risk manager and consultant, an ex-Chief Risk Officer, and an academic, all who has writ-ten extensively in the subject. This article should be of interest to practitioners involved in implementing ERM, to consultants in ERM, and to academics teaching courses on ERM, risk management, and related topics. This article also provides a base against which further future re-search can be done as ERM best practices continue to evolve.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0128.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: large scale systems; risk assessment; risk management techniques; risk mitigation
Online: 10 December 2019 (07:14:12 CET)
Risk assessment management have been a hot topic for the researchers since a very long time. Software risk management is an important part of project management as it contains the identification, analysis, estimation and monitoring of different risks present in the system. This helps developers in decision making while assessing the problems that could arise in the software systems. Risk management is very complex in large scale system as these systems have very complex development. The paper describes risk management techniques for large scale system. Furthermore we have provided a detailed comparative analysis of these techniques with commonly identified risks in software systems and have provided a systematic order for risk management process to ensure risk mitigation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.2172.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Networks And Communications Keywords: IoT cyber risk management; Cyber risk assessment; Cyber risk control; Security controls; Internet of Things; Survey; IoT
Online: 30 June 2023 (07:59:54 CEST)
The Internet of Things (IoT) continues to grow at a rapid pace, becoming integrated into the daily operations of individuals and organisations. IoT systems automate crucial services within daily life that users may rely on, which makes the assurance of security towards entities such as devices and information even more significant. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of papers that model cyber risk management processes within the context of IoT, and provide recommendations for further work. Using 39 collected papers, we studied IoT cyber risk management frameworks against four research questions that delve into cyber risk management concepts and human-orientated vulnerabilities. The importance of this work being human-driven is to better understand how individuals can affect risk and the ways that humans can be impacted by attacks within different IoT domains. Through the analysis, we identified open areas for future research and ideas that researchers should consider.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0410.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: disaster; risk management; system; Serbia
Online: 31 December 2019 (11:14:44 CET)
In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia - DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0397.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Demography Keywords: disasters; earthquake; risk perception; management; preparedness
Online: 27 October 2021 (10:53:56 CEST)
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents' preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints201702.0053.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: Systemic risk; Systemically Important Firms(SIFs); Stock Price; Stock Price (Close); Stock Price (Open); Stock Price: Bid; Stock Price: Ask; Stock Price: Spread; Joint Probability of Distress(JPoD); Banking Stability Index (BSI); Co-Risk Model
Online: 15 February 2017 (10:40:33 CET)
The Estimation of systemic risk in India is still in its infancy stage. There are several methods which are available but none of the methods are fully compatible to forecast the systemic risk since under different circumstances the factors responsible for the risk differs. In this paper the systemic risk estimation in India being carried out based on spread in daily stock market price(Difference between the bid and ask price of a share) of the top 100 firms in India according to market capitalization for the period of July2007 to March 2016. The results were compared with the Financial Stability Report published by Reserve Bank Of India for the period of March 2010 to June 2016.The results clearly indicates that there exits relationship between market illiquidity represented by spread and risks associated with the Financial System. In most of the cases the Z score (deviation from the mean/Standard Deviation) of the spread has become negative which provides the spread which is farther from the mean, also a good indicator of volatility in market and risk to financial system. It is also seen that the Systemic Risk Survey conducted by Reserve Bank of India which started during October 2011 has supported the results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0109.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Information Technology, Risk Primary Market, Secondary Market Risk, Non-Financial Risks, Risk Management
Online: 11 January 2019 (10:45:25 CET)
The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: functional dependency; network-based linear dependency modelling; internet of things; micro mort model; goal-oriented approach; transformation roadmap; cyber risk regulations; empirical analysis; cyber risk self-assessment; cyber risk target state.
Online: 25 December 2020 (11:35:48 CET)
The Internet-of-Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state-of-the-art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0246.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Telemedicine; Risk Management; Healthcare; Translational Medicine; Personalized Medicine
Online: 6 October 2023 (11:46:47 CEST)
Telemedicine has been increasingly considered an effective strategy to support patients with several diagnosis and therapies, avoiding the on-site visit and drastically reducing the risks to share infections. In the recent years, a number of different technologies have been developed and applied to clinical studies, with the aim to investigate new ways for increase the early diagnoses and monitor the clinical evolution of the most predictable diseases directly from the patients’ home. Telemedicine refers to all those technological interfaces used to remotely perform clinical procedures. Telemedicine applications could be useful in several medical fields, such as preventive medicine, home patient care, education for healthcare professionals and patients, research, public health, and health management. On the other hand, the synergy of these different technologies has a significant impact on the clinical risks analysis, particularly useful in frail patients. Although Telemedicine shows to have important advantages, undoubtedly important issues still remain. The present work aims to shed light on the main advantages and disadvantages related to of each application’s features, which may serve as a useful tool for researchers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0389.v1
Subject: Engineering, Industrial And Manufacturing Engineering Keywords: Risk management; Defense systems; System of Systems (SoS)
Online: 15 December 2020 (14:05:48 CET)
Identifying and assessing risk is one of the most important processes in managing complex systems and requires careful consideration. The need for an effective, efficient approach to risk management is considerably more important for defense industries, because they are exposed to risk already in early stages of development. This paper uses Heterogeneity and Homogeneity analysis between risk factors with Cochran’s Q test and Multidimensional scaling in order to present the complexity of the risk factors relevant to defense SoS, and proposes a methodology for identifying, analyzing and monitoring the risks that they face. Findings from an in-depth analysis of 46 classified defense SoS shows a need to focus on three main risks faced by defense projects: insufficient human resources, changes in the original specifications, and lack of other (non-human) resources. The paper also presents some recommendations for minimizing risk factors in defense SoS.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0175.v1
Subject: Engineering, Industrial And Manufacturing Engineering Keywords: Risk management; Defense systems; System of Systems (SoS)
Online: 8 September 2020 (06:08:59 CEST)
Identifying and assessing risk is one of the most important processes in managing complex systems and requires careful consideration. The need for an effective, efficient approach to risk management is considerably more important for defense projects based on systems of systems (SoS), because they are exposed to risk already in early stages of development. This paper uses advanced data science tools to present the complexity of the risk factors relevant to defense systems, and proposes a methodology for identifying, analyzing and monitoring the risks that they face. Findings from an in-depth analysis of 46 classified defense projects based on SoS shows a need to focus on three main risks faced by defense projects: uncertainty, the lack of clearly defined goals, and managing a system under constrained conditions. The paper also presents some recommendations for minimizing risk factors in SoS for defense projects.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0163.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: D number, Analytical Network Process (ANP), MABAC, Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), Consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR), Construction project risk, Risk Management
Online: 24 November 2017 (16:46:59 CET)
Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to various risk factors due to dynamic business environments. These risks affect project activities which indirectly impact construction costs, resulting in delays and poor building quality. So, managing these project risks requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. Hence, risk evaluation and assessment of construction projects is a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. In present real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP) methodology in the D number domain to handle three types of ambiguous evaluations, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D number based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D number extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR). An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method in D number is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches (D-COPRAS, D-ARAS, D-MABAC, and D-TOPSIS). Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed for verify the robustness of the proposed method.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0092.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: agricultural diversification; risk management; regret; portfolio; scenario
Online: 10 January 2019 (04:42:17 CET)
Diversification is an important strategy for managing risk in agricultural systems. Risk analysis can help to support farmers’ diversification strategies, but existing analytical methods are complicated and little used. The minimum regret model helps to fill this gap. It provides a simple, transparent calculation procedure that can be executed with existing spreadsheet software. Regret is an important heuristic in the behavioural sciences and regret-based models are used in finance. The article presents the model with a numerical example. It also presents a framework to compare minimum regret portfolios with two limit cases (maximum utility and minimax regret). A case study illustrates the use of the model and the comparative framework.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0156.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Health care risk waste, home-based caregivers
Online: 8 October 2018 (16:02:59 CEST)
The quadruple burden of diseases, early discharge from hospital and hospital at home have resulted in home-based care services becoming a requirement in South Africa. The home-based care services generate a significant amount of health care risk waste that is mismanaged. However, more attention is given to the health care risk waste generated in hospitals and clinics than to health care risk waste generated by home-based caregivers. Therefore, this study investigates the health care risk waste management practices by home-based caregivers. The study adopted a mixed research approach, qualitative and quantitative methods, using a literature review, interviews, and questionnaires as means of data collection. Results show that there are different types of health care risk waste generated as a result of different activities performed by home-based caregivers, but that the waste was found to be managed in an unsafe manner. The majority of households receiving home-based care did not have basic sanitation facilities such as toilets, running water and waste removal services, aggravating the issue of health care risk waste mismanagement. The study recommends a new policy framework that will lead to safe management practices of generated health care risk waste to be adopted by home-based caregivers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1227.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: risk assessment; information security; risk management; segregation of duties; security culture model; SCM; COBIT 2019; unified modelling language; ISO 27001
Online: 19 October 2023 (10:08:06 CEST)
To proactively manage information security, enterprises often employ information security risk assessment techniques. Asset value - which is used to calculate the financial impact of possible threats - is one of the key parameters of information security risk. However, assets in a system are rarely independent, and their values are typically interdependent. Asset owners and IT teams may hold different views as regards these values, and there is thus the need to reduce subjectivity in a qualitative risk assessment. The research entails the development of a conceptual framework derived from the literature to minimize subjectivity, and the design of a system based on those concepts. The study uses the Unified Modeling Language as a design tool and puts forward an object-oriented model for defining asset values, in which the relationships between assets, vulnerabilities and related threats are identified. A “segregation of duties” approach is integrated into the risk management system to mitigate against subjectivity and better determine asset values. Survey responses from 16 practitioners working in the private and public sectors confirm the validity of the approach, but suggest it may be more workable in larger organisations where resources allow dedicated risk professionals to operate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1359.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: atrial fibrillation; risk factors; thromboembolic events; novel oral anticoagulants; complications; hospitalization; medication monitoring
Online: 23 August 2023 (07:49:13 CEST)
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with various risk factors and significant morbidity and mortality. This article presents findings from a study involving 115 patients with permanent AF. The study examined demographics, risk factors, associated pathologies, complications, and anticoagulant therapy. The results showed a slight predominance of AF in males, with the highest incidence in individuals aged 75 and above. Common risk factors included arterial hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes mellitus type 2, and obesity. Comorbidities such as congestive heart failure, mitral valve regurgitation, and pulmonary disorders were prevalent among the patients. Major complications included congestive heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Thromboembolic and bleeding risk assessment using CHAD2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores demonstrated a high thromboembolic risk in all patients. The majority of patients were receiving novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) before admission, while NOACs were also the most prescribed antithrombotic therapy at discharge. The study highlights the importance of risk factor management and appropriate anticoagulant therapy in AF patients to reduce complications and improve outcomes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0063.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: UAS; UAV; Risk assessment; SORA; disaster management
Online: 5 May 2021 (13:28:27 CEST)
Worldwide, there is a significant increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by emergency services. They offer a lot of possibilities during the rescue operation. Such a wide application for various purposes and environments causes many threats related to their use. To minimize the risks associated with conducting air operations with UAVs, the SORA methodology will be important. Due to its level of detail, it is a methodology adapted to civilian use. In this article, the authors' team will try to develop guidelines and directions for adapting SORA to the requirements of the operational work of emergency services. Thus following article aims to present the most important risks related to conducting operations with the use of UAVs by First Responders (FRs) and to show the sample risk analysis performed for this type of operation on the example of the ASSISTANCE project. The paper describes, on the one hand, possibilities offered by UAVs in crisis or disaster management and step-by-step Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) and on the other hand, presents possible threats, consequences and methods of their mitigation during FRs missions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0087.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: sustainable land management; adoption; risk; upland; Vietnam
Online: 8 October 2019 (10:50:40 CEST)
This study investigates how the determinants including risk preference affect farmers’ decision to adopt SLM practices in upland areas of Vietnam. Empirical data collected through in-depth interviews with 200 farmers in Na Ri district, Bac Kan province were used. The factors affecting SLM adoption of farmers in Na Ri district were examined by the 2SLS or IV-Probit model. The estimated 2SLS regression indicated that there is a set of factors affecting SLM adoption, namely, relative risk aversion, farming experience, farm size, knowledge of SLM, membership in farmers’ organization, number of labors, and slope of farm land. Specifically, relative risk aversion had a negative effect on SLM practices adoption. The farmers who are less risk averse are more likely to adopt more SLM practices. This implies that reducing farmer’ risk exposure could promote SLM practices. This result is also helpful for policymakers to understand farmers’ behaviors and promote the diffusion of SLM practices across regions on a large scale.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0016.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: natural language processing; risk management; transmission lines; unstructured data
Online: 4 April 2022 (11:26:15 CEST)
Risk management of electric power transmission lines requires knowledge from different areas such as environment, land, investors, regulations, and engineering. Despite the widespread availability of databases for most of those areas, integrating them into a single database or model is a challenging problem. Instead, in this paper, we use a single source, the Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency’s (ANEEL) weekly reports, which contains decisions about the electrical grid, comprising most of the areas. Since the data is unstructured (text), we employed NLP techniques such as stemming and tokenization to identify keywords related to common causes of risks provided by an expert group on energy transmission. Then, we used models to estimate the probability of each risk. Our results show that we were able to estimate the probability of 97 risks out of 233.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0040.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: machinery safety; risk assessment; effectiveness of the measures
Online: 1 December 2020 (17:36:15 CET)
Even though the rules for free movement of machinery within the European Union market have existed for more than 30 years, accidents related to their activities have constantly been achieving significant value. When designing the machine, a designer must stem from risk assessment, whereas all stages of its life cycle and ways of its use must be taken into consideration. In industrial operations, there is old machinery, which, although fulfilling its function reliably, the safety level is not in accordance with the developing requirements for their safe operation. The proposed methodology of assessment of the machinery safety condition comes out from the presupposition of the right application of steps of risk assessment and their reduction mainly by means of implementation of both effective and efficient preventive measures. The aim of the research applied in 3 operations, was to verify the method of machinery safety management. The created methodology based on 19 requirements for safety evaluates the level of the actual measures by means of the so-called criterion of current status and total efficiency of measures. Its output is the assessment of the efficiency level of implemented safety of each machine as well as of the whole operation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201907.0027.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: risk management; futures studies; stakeholders analysis; scenario planning
Online: 2 July 2019 (03:50:09 CEST)
Controlling and managing risk is always a critical point for the managers, investors and even consultants. Having clear and better percepts about future can reduce the risk of fail. In addition it is important for a risk analyzer to consider the stakeholders views and senses about the risk. This research aimed at framing a comprehensive risk management model which builds up on stakeholder requirements and forecasting techniques. This conceptual model attempts to use the stakeholder’s points of view to write prefer and probable scenarios to neglect critical risks and increase the chance of success in long-term plannings. Using futures studies methods prepare decision makers for the possible upcoming events and donate them a powerful tool to handle the uncertainties cover the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1228.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: financial performance; management; operational risk; SMEs; Visegrad group countries
Online: 16 June 2023 (11:00:57 CEST)
Owners and managers of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have changed their perspective on risk management due to the current global negative threats in the business environment. If they want to be successful and ensure the financial performance of their business, they must accept a proactive approach to reducing strategic risks in connection with operational risks. The aim of the article is to identify and quantify the differences in operational risk management and its effect on the financial management of SMEs between four Central European countries. The statistical sample of SMEs consisted of 1,090 owners and top managers. Data collection was carried out through a questionnaire in the period December 2022-January 2023. Statistical hypotheses were evaluated with the application of correlation analysis and linear regression modelling. Empirical findings have confirmed that operational risk management has a significant positive impact on improving the profitability of the enterprise; on reducing the enterprise's indebtedness as well as in the context of reducing the enterprise's inability to pay its obligations. However, there are disparities in the perception of this influence between owners/managers with regard to the country in which they carry out their business activities. The findings are important for both national and multinational organizations and entities dealing with risk management in the business environment of small and medium-sized enterprises.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0731.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: Risk management; Islamic Banks; Survey Analysis; Random Forest; Machine Learning
Online: 12 October 2023 (02:28:58 CEST)
This study utilizes the Random Forest technique to investigate risk management practices and concerns in Islamic banks using survey data from 2016 to 2021. Findings reveal that larger banks provide more consistent survey responses, driven by their confidence and larger survey budgets. Moreover, a positive link is established between a country's development, characterized by high GDPs and low inflation and interest rates, and the precision of Islamic banks' survey responses. Analyzing risk-related concerns, the study notes a significant reduction in credit portfolio risk, attributed to improved risk management practices, global economic growth, stricter regulations, and diversified asset portfolios. Concerns related to terrorism financing and cybersecurity risks have also decreased due to better enforcement of anti-money laundering regulations and investments in cybersecurity infrastructure and education. This research enhances our understanding of risk management in Islamic banks, highlighting the impact of bank size and country development. Additionally, it emphasizes the need for ongoing analysis beyond 2021 to account for potential COVID-19 effects and evolving risk management and regulatory practices in Islamic banking.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0311.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: risks; COVID-19 pandemics; Russian economy, financial stimulation, risk management.
Online: 17 March 2023 (01:44:15 CET)
The research objects are the tax and budgetary policies of the Russian Federation. In this research, financial (budgetary) risks are understood as a decrease in the balance of the state (national) budget resulting from a reduction in revenues or an increase in expenditures. This research considers production in the main sectors of the economy as a key factor of financial risk in the COVID-19 pandemic. The research aims to analyze the main directions of the budgetary and tax policy of the Russian Federation aiming at supporting the economy and the population during the spread of COVID-19, which is especially relevant in connection with the expected recession in a number of sectors of the economy and a decrease in the level of employment and, accordingly, the well-being of citizens. In these conditions, it is necessary to adjust the budgetary and tax policy to preserve the state’s social obligations and expand social and economic support for businesses and citizens to smooth out the negative consequences of the impact of restrictive measures. The authors applied systemic and institutional approaches and statistical methods. The main results of the research reflect the need to (1) implement support measures (tax and budgetary incentives) for small and medium-sized enterprises, on which the crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic has had the most destructive impact, and (2) to expand the volume of budgetary financing of social programs for financial risk management of the Russian economy during the COVID-19 pandemics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0420.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Government Keywords: communication model, volcanic eruption, contingency planning, risk management, Sinabung
Online: 23 August 2018 (16:06:15 CEST)
This study aims to find a communication model of contingency plan for disaster risk management of Sinabung Volcano eruption, in North Sumatera. The object of the research is communication and coordination across the government, non-government organization, and community. This study used planning theory, the concept of communication planning, and types of disaster management plan as tools for analysing. Descriptive qualitative is used as the method. Data collection was obtained from the focus group discussion (FGD), in-depth interviews, observation, and study documentation. There are three stages in descriptive qualitative research that is data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. An analysis was conducted qualitatively on the program and competence actors. The results found the communication model of disaster risk management through documents of contingency planning to overcome the threat of Mount Sinabung eruption. During the emergency response period a core model was used to reduce the impact of the Mount Sinabung eruption. The contingency plan becomes the Karo District Government’s document. This document were authorized by an authorized official and is ready to be applied to the Emergency Response Operation Plan. Plans for emergency response operations are carried out based on information regarding damage and the need to obtain results of a quick review. Contingency plans are submitted to the legislature for political commitment and support and budget allocation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0267.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: disaster risk management; mitigation; preparedness; response; recovery; Germany; USA; Russia; China
Online: 16 February 2023 (04:00:58 CET)
The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk management systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered – starting from the international level and guidelines given at international conferences, to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurred, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers - whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1894.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; just-in-time; supply chain risk mitigation; supply chain visibility; GSCM
Online: 8 September 2023 (04:28:19 CEST)
There are two purposes for this article. The first purpose is to perform a reiew of previous research on global supply chain management (GSCM) principles that can adapt and survive adversity, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The second purpose is to put forth a conceptual framework for the GSCM that is sustainable in the event of future turbulence similar to that experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. With regard to the issues raised, the article posits the following questions. Is there, perhaps, a sustainable post-COVID-19 pandemic GSCM? Can the COVID-19 pandemic-related international logistics system (GSC) turbulences be predicted with certainty using these sustainable post-COVID-19 pandemic GSCM concepts? Putting it all together, the paper concludes that, while debatable, sustainable GSCM is feasible and can be accomplished utilizing JIT, supply chain mitigation, and supply chain visibility, as demonstrated by the manufacturing firms referenced in the article.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0037.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: decision dilemma; intergenerational welfare; time horizon; risk attitude; inequality aversion; fairness; responsibility; sustainability paradigms
Online: 2 May 2018 (12:41:08 CEST)
We introduce and analyse a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of climate change. In it, each generation can choose between just two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as this one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyse this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Despite the simplicity of the setup, we find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0286.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: military installations project; risk factor; structural equation model
Online: 15 October 2018 (06:32:30 CEST)
Some of the recent large-scale national projects in South Korea are delayed or suspended due to belated responses to risk occurring on site. Currently, the Far East District (FED) project is being implemented to relocate the US Army bases from Yongsan to Pyeongtaek. Because of lack of experience and understanding about the characteristics of such a project, the deadline of taking over to the US Army Korea has been missed. This study identifies problems of each participant in the Yongsan Relocation Plan (YRP) of the US Army Korea with respect to construction project management and establishes a risk management strategy reflecting characteristics of FED project. To derive significant risk factors influencing YRP, various field data like weekly and monthly reports and other reports on construction condition are analyzed, and experts’ advices are collected and a survey is conducted. Mediators and latent variables are ultimately obtained. Furthermore, a structural equation model is used to both analyze and evaluate complex causal relations among many variables of YRP. The impact of risk factors on the schedule, quality and cost of the project is analyzed. In particular, the case of Site A is examined to see how the project is affected by those risk factors.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1436.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Religion; Real Earnings Management; Risk Aversion; Social norm; Financial Statements Disclosure
Online: 21 August 2023 (08:02:44 CEST)
Prior research has extensively examined the relationship between religion and accrual-based earnings management. However, there is currently little research in the relationship between religion and real (non-accrual) earnings management, especially in Europe. This paper aims to fill this research gap and examines whether and how the effect of religion could be linked with firms’ real earnings management activities. Four hypotheses are developed and tested with our results providing indications that the degree of overall religiosity is negatively and significantly associated with real earnings management. Furthermore, when investigating the effects of different religions in Europe, Christianity and Islam have the opposite impact on firms’ real earnings management activities. Overall, our paper indicates that in European countries, the religious environment can mitigate firms’ manipulations on earnings.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0388.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: rainfall thresholds; rainstorms; runoff erosion; weather radar; early warning system; risk reduction; resilience
Online: 6 May 2023 (07:55:26 CEST)
The effects of global warming combined with the progressive expansion of urbanization have considerably increased exposure to urban flooding and runoff widespread erosion risk, also causing shallow landslides and mud flows, respectively in urbanized areas of lowland and hill/foothill environments. Increasing urban flooding resilience has become a priority at virtually all levels of governance. The analysis of a different hazard scenarios, in which various hydro-meteorological conditions and management alternatives are examined, should act as the basis for the effective design and evaluation of interventions to improve urban flooding resilience. Turin Metropolitan Area (TMA), located in north-western Italy, represents a unique case due to its complex orography, with a mountainous sector in the west side and a flat or hilly part in the east side. During the warm season, these environmental conditions make the urban area prone to severe atmospheric convection causing frequent hailstorms and rainstorms of high intensity that may impact on urban infrastructures (i.e., drainage system and road network), thus requiring an adequate management as a key factor to reducing risk and losses. The urban areas of TMA are monitored by polarimetric Doppler weather radars and by a dense rain gauges network. Analyzing several case studies of urban flooding, this research work assesses the feasibility of a meteorological radar early warning system based on the identification of rainfall thresholds that characterize urban flooding, occurring in the lowlands, and the runoff erosion phenomena affecting the urbanized hills and foothills.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0047.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: change management; decision-making model; risk management; resource management; process improvement; good governance
Online: 4 October 2019 (10:42:05 CEST)
Abstract: Purpose – In this article we lay out the change management practices adopted by financial firms in small states within the Eurozone. We determine whether these organisations have the ability to identify triggers for change (Red Flags) and subject them to eight thematic elements to understand whether management practices can continue to exist and support operational environments, even when unexpected circumstances affect their day to day operations and processes. In doing this we examine the extent to which the eight thematic elements from the model designed by Dalli Gonzi, (2019) (The Dali Model) can assist organisations in risk identification and business continuity planning. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire purposely designed for this study was administered to personnel working in internal controls within financial institutions of small Eurozone states. The participants were asked to grade statements using a 5-point Likert scale, ‘1’ being ‘totally disagree’ and ‘5’ being totally agree’ to the statement posed under the thematic elements forming the basis of the Dali Model. Findings – Factor analysis provided support for the eight hypothesised dimensions of the decision-making model: connection, capacity, governance, network, policy, training, process improvement, standards. Originality/value – The study provides a better understanding and support of “best practice” in change management through an understanding and assessment of the eight factors that are the basis of this model. It addresses practical recommendations to ensure application to a wider frame of use.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0361.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Other Keywords: Falls; Falls risk assessment tools; geriatric medicine; sarcopenia
Online: 14 April 2023 (09:38:29 CEST)
Background: Falls risk assessment tools are used in hospital inpatient settings to identify pa-tients at increased risk of falls (which may be related to muscle loss/sarcopenia) to guide and target interventions for falls prevention. In 2022, Western Health, Melbourne, Australia, intro-duced a new falls risk assessment tool, the Western Health St. Thomas’ Risk Assessment Tool (WH-STRATIFY), a modified version of The Northern Hospital’s risk tool (TNH-STRATIFY), which replaced the Peninsula Health Risk Screening Tool (PH-FRAT). Aims: To determine the predictive accuracy of three falls risk assessment tools (PH-FRAT, TNH-STRATIFY and WH-STRATIFY) on admission to Geriatric Evaluation Management (GEM) units. Method: A retrospective observational study was conducted on four GEM units. Data was col-lected on 54 consecutive patients who fell during admission and 62 randomly sampled patients who did not fall between December 2020 and June 2021. Participants were scored against three falls risk assessment tools. The event rate Youden (Youden IndexER) indices were calculated and compared using default and optimal cut points to determine which tool was most accurate for predicting falls. Results: Using default cut points to compare falls assessment tools, TNH-STRATIFY had the highest predictive accuracy (Youden IndexER = 0.20, 95% confidence interval CI = 0.07, 0.34). The PH-FRAT (Youden IndexER = 0.01 and 95% CI = -0.04, 0.05) and WH-STRATIFY (Youden IndexER = 0.00 and 95% CI = -0.04, 0.03) were statistically equivalent and not predictive of falls compared to TNH-STRATIFY. When calculated optimal cut points were applied, predictive accuracy im-proved for PH-FRAT (Cut point 17, Youden IndexER = 0.14 and 95% CI = 0.01, 0.29) and WH-STRATIFY (Cut point 7, Youden IndexER = 0.18 and 95% CI = 0.00, 0.35). Overall, all tools had low predictive accuracy for falls. Conclusion: TNH-STRATIFY had the highest predictive accuracy for falls. The predictive accu-racy of WH-STRATIFY improved and was significant when the calculated optimal cut point was applied. The optimal cut points of falls risk assessment tools should be determined and validated in different clinical settings to optimise local predictive accuracy, enabling targeted falls risk mitigation strategies and resource allocation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0674.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Offshore wind; life extension; modern portfolio theory; unsupervised machine learning; monopile; risk management
Online: 27 May 2021 (14:01:13 CEST)
The present study aims to develop a risk-based approach to find optimal solutions for life extension management for offshore wind farms based on Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory, adapted from finance. The developed risk-based approach assumes that the offshore wind turbines (OWT) can be considered as cash-producing tangible assets providing positive return from the initial investment (capital) with a given risk attaining the targeted (expected) return. In this regard, the present study performs a techno-economic life extension analysis within the scope of the multi-objective optimisation problem. The first objective is to maximise the return from the overall wind assets, while the latter aims to minimise the risk associated with obtaining the return. In formulating the multi-dimensional optimisation problem, the life-extension assessment considers the results of a detailed structural integrity analysis, free-cash-flow analysis, and probability of project failure, local and global economic constraints. Further, the risk is identified as the variance from the expected mean of return on investment. The risk-return diagram is utilised to classify the OWTs of different classes using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. The optimal portfolios for the various required rate of return are recommended for different stages of life extension.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0166.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate information services; pilot projects; climate risk management, systematic literature review
Online: 18 February 2019 (16:53:45 CET)
Many pilot-based initiatives have been developed to promote awareness and use of climate information services among vulnerable smallholder farmers in Africa through million-dollar investments. However, despite their experimental nature, these pilot projects have been successful in raising participating farmers’ awareness and use of climate information services and they can inform transferrable good practices. Through a systematic literature review approach, this review sought to understand ways in which these past pilot projects have contributed to climate risk management in the context of smallholder farming and the factors that led to their success. Results showed that climate information services main contribution to climate risk management has been through facilitating farm level decision making. Factors that led to success of the pilots include: use of downscaled information; building institutional partnerships to add value to climate information; involving farmers through the co-designing and co-developing process; face-to-face way of communication; embedding pre-seasonal workshops in the activities of local institutions for sustainability; using diversity of communication channels to enhance reach among others. These factors can be borrowed as good practices to inform future efforts focused on increasing adoption of climate information services among a wider population beyond pilot project reach.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0468.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: temporary grandstand; lateral vibration experiment; vibration dose value; annoyance rate; human health risk
Online: 31 May 2018 (11:03:32 CEST)
Excessive vibration of temporary grandstand owing to crowd has lateral rhythmic motions can cause human in panic, which attracted increasing attention in recent years. This paper focuses on experiments that a temporary grandstand occupied 20 participants is oscillated by a shaking table with a series of random waves and induced by crowd with rhythmic swaying motions at lateral direction, respectively. And then a series of vibration perception questionnaires about crowd reaction are obtained. Evaluation of annoying level derives in concept of degree of membership and annoying rate method is proposed, then the human health risk of vibration serviceability of temporary grandstand is assessed with acceleration vibration dose value(VDV). From these results it is clear that standing crowd is more tolerant to vibration than seated crowd. The measured vibrations generated by crowd activities on temporary grandstand can cause panic in crowd. New relationship between the annoyance rate and structural acceleration VDV at logarithmic coordinate is proposed. The findings of this study can be utilized to manage the vibration of temporary grandstand and assess the human health risk.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201707.0067.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: spatial analysis; risk taking; preparedness of local population; the City of Abhar
Online: 24 July 2017 (12:40:30 CEST)
Understanding the vulnerability of areas and the likelihood of specific disasters, particularly earthquakes, is one of the most important issues in Iran. One of the major concerns in Iran is the resilience of rural communities. The present study is devoted to spatial analysis of risk in rural areas and the evaluation of preparedness in the rural districts of the city of Abhar. In particular, this study evaluates the resilience to earthquakes. The research was conducted in two parts in which the first part has used the VIKOR Multiple criteria decision making model as well as the employment of this model in the ArcGis. The second part of the study used field studies, in the form of questionnaires, to evaluate the readiness of the local population against the risks of earthquakes. Four indicators, individual, physical, economic abilities and access, were assessed. The population included rural districts, where statistical samples were villagers. Results of the spatial analysis indicated that 15 villages are in the high-risk areas, 24 villages were in the medium-risk areas and all other villages were in low-risk areas. In terms of readiness of the locals, the results indicated a lack of planning with regards to the four mentioned indicators.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0383.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; construction project; risk management; use of technology; recovery and resilience
Online: 14 April 2021 (14:12:17 CEST)
The global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has created a whole new set of risks in construction industries generating unprecedented delays, disruptions, and uncertainty on construction projects, and has forced the industries in adopting more sophisticated technologies while combating the reduced workforce on job sites. Further, the post-pandemic era of construction is expected to be a lot different as the industries will embrace the technology as the augmentation and collaboration strategy. Thus, it will be extremely hard to sustain for construction industries in the absence of effective risk management. The existing risk plans need to be inspected for their capability of handling new risks arising from COVID-19 and the project managers will need to make the necessary revisions as needed. This paper discusses on past (NORM), present (NEW NORM), and future (Post COVID-19 NORM) of the construction industry and highlights key strategies for managing projects and construction risks during and post COVID-19 pandemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1421.v2
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: Latin America heritage; Reform in cultural heritage management; UNESCO site at risk
Online: 9 June 2023 (05:44:45 CEST)
Since 2017 Cartagena UNESCO World Heritage has threatened to be categorized as "in Danger" by UNESCO. This research analyzes two main critical aspects, Governance and Current state of the Site. Regarding Governance, the study aims to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and treats in the UNESCO Site. Exemplary heritage management systems are studied to propose an adaptable management approach specifically for Cartagena. On the other hand, a comprehensive analysis is conducted utilizing a photographic report that highlights the major issues arising from inadequate heritage management. Hyperspectral images obtained from a previous study are employed to identify vegetation and asbestos-cement roofs within the cultural heritage Site. The study reveals that the ambiguity surrounding decision-making authority for heritage management, distributed between the Mayor's Office and the Ministry of Culture, is a primary challenge. This fragmentation has resulted in duplicated efforts and a lack of coordinated action, significantly compromising the conservation and protection of the cultural heritage Site. Moreover, twelve current shortcomings of cultural heritage in Cartagena are identified through authors' five-year on-site regular visits, photographic reports and observation. To address the prevailing concerns, a new line of command for cultural heritage management is proposed as the most effective means of tackling these challenges. Additionally, general recommendations are presented to mitigate the existing problems and prevent the classification of Cartagena's heritage as "at risk" by UNESCO in the near future. This research provides a scientific perspective, drawing upon years of experience studying heritage and residing in the city, devoid of political influences or conflicts of interest.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0068.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy process; AHP; fuzzy; project management; risk prioritization; critical success factors; ETL; MCDM; TOPSIS
Online: 5 December 2019 (11:30:08 CET)
Today project management in every field of life is prerequisite for the success of project by increasing quality reduces cost and schedule. But selecting tools and techniques to achieve our objectives and implement our plan fully is very difficult task because choice creates complexity. So, we discuss AHP to make decision simple. Ranking critical success factor, cloud computing services, risk prioritization, selection of right ETL software and many other systems AHP plays its important role. For the improvement of today’s complex systems it is very important to prioritize and select projects to remove the root cause of the problem. To attain the right selection of construction equipment for carrying out schedule tasks with high efficiency, production and financial capability is the main purpose of procurement of construction equipment process. Certain conflicts can occur due to the construction of UML models in a collaborative way. AHP is used to remove these conflicts and for establishing and evaluating modelers judgments. Nowadays it is very important and critical decision to choose the best option from multiple alternatives for a successful career after passing 12th standard and also it affects our future. “AHP and TOPSIS” methods are used for this purpose. In this paper, an “AHP and Fuzzy AHP” based hierarchical trust model has been used to rate the service providers and their various plans for infrastructure as a service.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0730.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: risk management and early measures; Novel Corona Virus (COVID-2019); GHS
Online: 31 August 2020 (17:56:33 CEST)
This research paper is mainly aimed to elaborate the initial risk management and measures which government of Pakistan took towards Novel Corona Virus (COVID-2019). This initial response and planning was devised after the early outbreak of COVID-2019 in Wuhan, China in early time of January 2020. Pakistan devised a comprehensive plan that not to evacuate their student from Wuhan, China. The government of Pakistan in compliance with the National Institute of Health (NIH) devised and documented comprehensive plans such as the flight operations postponed related to Umerah pilgrims, which were intended to go to sacred places of KSA (The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). The process of visa, immigration policy totally changed and the government of Pakistan notified it officially that, no new visas of visit, student, and business would be issued in due course of uncertainty due to COVID-2019. The government of Pakistan also announced medical emergency and notified through the country’s provinces the process of testing and treatment of COVID-2019. The government of Pakistan also allocated funds for medical supplies and named out the particular country’s best laboratories. The government of Pakistan also locked down all the cities with the emergency announcement that people should stay inside the home in quarantine or self-isolation. NIH (The National Institute of Health) played a vital role in executing the planning to cope with COVID – 2019). The National Institute of Health responded as “The Centre for Disease Control”. In aid to the government, the national army of Pakistan responded in a proactive manner towards planed execution. The medical corps of Pakistan army dedicated themselves to treat the suspected patients of COVID – 2019. Due to plans, policies being documented, implemented in such a way productive way that from February 28, 2020 to till date there is not much critical situation and issues are not present. There are much productive results as there is not much boom in a rise of COVID-2019 patients. This lockdown under the authority of the provinces resulted in fruitful outcomes. Background: On January 02, 2020, authorities of the People Republic of China elaborated that they have encountered with a novel type of infectious viral disease 2019. Later on January 12, the authorities from China elaborated the related sequence of Corona Virus diseases 2019 names as COVID – 2019. When COVID-2019 being identified in Wuhan, Hubei China, as an early response the Government of Pakistan in support of the National Institute of Health (Field Epidemiology & Disease Surveillance Division) published a health advisory about novel coronavirus. Methods: According to Global Health Security Index, Pakistan is ranked as 105th country among 195 countries in GHS index. Overall Score of Pakistan is 35.5. The score of Early Detection and Reporting for Epidemics of Potential International Concern is 41.7. A Graphical depiction of the COVID-19 cases placed until April 10, 2020 as well as a graph trend line of recovered as well as death rate is also depicted. According to the graphical facts of Government of Pakistan and World meters, the recovery rate of COVID-19 is about 98 percent and 2.1 percent death rate is reported against the total cases. Trend analysis with line graph was drawn based on available data from official dashboard web portal of the government of Pakistan and worldometers.info. Data figures were incorporated from March to August 18, 2020 in MS Excel and then subsequently deployed to draw trend analysis from managing risk to recovery. Results: The line graph showed a slowdown in the COVID-19 cases and high rate of recoveries from COVID-19 in Pakistan. On March 11, 2020, there were 20 confirmed cases of coronavirus reported in Pakistan. No death was recorded in very first seven days, on March 18, 2020 only two deaths were reported. On August 18, 2020, there were 272128 recoveries, 6201 deaths, total confirmed cases 290445, and total test were 2340072 in Pakistan. As a results, we can report that due to early measures taken by government of Pakistan no mass scale destruction in terms of death and cases been recorded in Pakistan. Conclusions: To till date, the government of Pakistan tried its level best to minimize the coronavirus cases as much as they can. However, the ending of the potential attack of an outbreak would depend upon the well organized and coordinated approach at all levels such as true directed decisions, fully preparedness, as well implementation and evaluation of continuous decisions. As the recovery rate of the cases is 98 percent and merely death rate is 2.1 percent, concluded that in future it would be a good sign to stop the potential outbreak. Also, lock down as well as precautionary measurement taken by the provincial governments resulted a decline number of COVID-19 cases in the country. Another good sign is that merely 4 percent population of Pakistan is of more than 60 years of old it can be concluded that there are less chances of mass death due to outbreak of COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0485.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: cell proliferation; epithelial glands; interactive biopsy guidance; malignancy score; risk stratification; individual treatment recommendations.
Online: 26 December 2022 (10:59:37 CET)
A key step in providing management/treatment options to men with suspected prostate cancer (PCa) is categorizing the risk for the presence of benign, low risk, intermediate risk, or high-risk disease. Our novel modality brings new evidence, based on the long-known hallmark characteristic of PCa – decreased Zinc (Zn), which is the most direct metabolic sign of malignancy and its aggressiveness. To date, this approach has not been adopted for clinical use for a number of reasons that are described in this article and which have been addressed by our approach: Zn has to be measured on fresh samples, prior to fixating in formalin, therefore samples have to be scanned during the biopsy session; as Zn depletion occurs in the glands, where the tumors develop, estimation of the glands’ levels in the scanned tissue along with their compactness, are essential for accurate diagnosis. Combined with the Zn depletion, this facilitates a reliable assessment of the disease aggressiveness. Data gathered in the clinical study described here indicate that in addition to improving the biopsy quality by real-time interactive guidance, a malignancy score can now be established for the entire prostate, allowing higher granularity personalized risk stratification and more decisive treatment decisions for all PCa patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0261.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: Risk management; Laos; livelihood; swidden; upland rice; rice bank; NTFPs; market economy; livestock
Online: 28 January 2018 (16:32:52 CET)
In areas with strongly seasonal climates, local people often use complex strategies to manage agricultural production shortages, including diverse activities such as hunting, selling and consuming non-agricultural products, and wage labor. We surveyed all the households in a village in northern Laos to evaluate how such livelihood activities varied during years with differing agricultural production conditions. We compared two years with normal rice production conditions (2010, 2012) and one year with a severe rice shortage (2011) due to a rodent outbreak. Earning wages inside and outside the village was the most important activity for mitigating rice shortages, followed by selling livestock and using/selling non-timber forest products. Villagers also borrowed rice from a village rice bank. Most cash income was earned from selling rice. We concluded that a balance of traditional risk management activities under the swidden system (e.g., raising livestock) with the more recent rice bank system and wages from the market economy will be critical for the sustainable development of mountain villages in northern Laos. Permanent crops and monocultures tend to make local livelihoods more dependent on a single crop, but maintaining the traditional swidden system will help local people to manage agricultural production shortages.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1613.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Other Keywords: Smart Data Models; Remote sensing; Satellite Imagery; Flood Monitoring and Mapping; Flood Risk Assessment; Data Sharing; Interoperability; Water Data Management
Online: 24 November 2023 (15:08:26 CET)
The increasing rate of adoption of innovative technological achievements along with the penetration of the Next Generation Internet (NGI) technologies and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the water sector, are leading to a shift to a Water-Smart Society. New challenges have emerged in terms of data interoperability, sharing, and trustworthiness due to the rapidly increasing volume of heterogeneous data generated by multiple technologies. Hence, there is a need for efficient harmonisation and smart modeling of the data to foster advanced AI analytical processes which will lead to efficient water data management. The main objective of this work is to propose two Smart Data Models focusing on the modeling of the Satellite Imaginary data and the Flood Risk Assessment processes. The utilisation of those models reinforces the fusion and homogenisation of diverse information and data facilitating the adoption of AI technologies for flood mapping and monitoring. Furthermore, a holistic framework has been developed and evaluated via qualitative and quantitative performance indicators revealing the efficacy of the proposed models concerning the usage of the models in real cases. The framework is based on the well-known and compatible technologies on NGSI-LD standards which are customised and applicable easily to support the water data management processes effectively.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0012.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Project Management; Artificial Intelligence (AI); Project Schedule Management; Project Cost Management; Project Risk Management
Online: 1 September 2023 (11:34:59 CEST)
The aim of this paper is to study the main areas in which Artificial Intelligence (AI) will impact the field of project management that relates to cost, risk and scheduling. The research model was based on a previous study of the ten project management knowledge areas presented in the PMI’s PMBOK 6th edition where project schedule-, cost- and risk management knowledge areas were identified as being the ones most likely to be affected by the development of AI. A group of experts that participated in the study agreed that AI will affect the project management profession in the future. Different elements of the three knowledge areas were considered to be affected more by AI than others. The schedule baseline is the element believed to be affected the most out of the project schedule management elements. For project cost management, the estimation of resource cost is believed to be affected the most. In the case of project risk management, the application of AI will have the strongest impact on the probability and impact format.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0303.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: depopulation; inland areas; rural areas; seismic risk; hydraulic risk; hydrogeological risk; risk mitigation; risk measures; RI.P.R.O.VA.RE. project
Online: 3 August 2023 (10:50:47 CEST)
The abandonment of inland areas has become a major demographical challenge, establishing a condition of local fragility in terms of spatial marginalization. To deal with this issue, a number of policy actions have been released over the time, namely the National Strategy for Inland Areas, established in Italy a decade ago, and more recently the Next Generation EU (NGEU) to foster local economic recovery and employment. In this context, RI.P.R.O.VA.RE., a project funded by the former Italian Ministry of the Environment and Protection of Land and Sea (MATTM), aimed at strengthening the resilience characteristics of communities and territories, focusing on areas falling in the Matese and Ufita in Campania Region and the Medio Agri in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy). Besides the ability to respond to different pressure factors (demographics, economic, geophysical, etc.), the project dealt with seismic, hydraulic and landslide risk conditions in the Matese area, proposing mitigation measures. After presenting the developed methodology, the results obtained for the study area are presented and discussed. The procedure can be applied as supporting tool to enhance the regeneration of inland areas.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0937.v1
Online: 12 May 2023 (11:15:15 CEST)
Risk protection and precaution are noticeable present, especially in times of a pandemic like Covid 19. However, it is not only in times of abruptly upcoming and unexpected situations like Corona that companies and economic entities are exposed to opportunities and threats. Internal and external developments that could influence the organization’s aims are defined as risks. Hence, it is important to emphasize that every operational activity is associated with risks and is consequently a challenge for companies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the identification and classification of individual risks. In this regard, the objectives and relevance of risk management are highlighted. Through the accomplishment of a classic literature review and the application of a comparative methodology the procedure of how hedging instruments are applied, is elaborated. The analysis indicates that various business concerns have a high awareness of risks inherent in business transactions, although they are still very hesitant to insert hedging instruments. Their uncertainties consist in defining and classifying the relevant risks plus identifying the appropriate hedging methods for them. Thus, this research can add new dimensions to hedging transactions and, particularly, express the benefits and opportunities of hedge accounting.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0410.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: social representations; natural hazard risk; Alpine hazards; risk communication; risk management; qualitative risk research;
Online: 16 November 2018 (13:35:01 CET)
The term “risk” is connoted with divergent meanings in natural hazard risk research and the practice of risk management. Whilst the technical definition is accurately defined, in practice, the term “risk” is often synonymously used with “danger”. Considering this divergence as a deficiency, risk communication often aims to correct laypersons’ understanding. We suggest in reference to Breakwell (2001) to treat the variety of meanings as a resource for risk communication strategies instead. However, there is no investigation so far, of what laypersons’ meanings of risk actually comprise. To address this gap, we examine the meanings of risk applying a social representations approach (Moscovici, 2001) in a qualitative case study design. Results of the study among inhabitants of Swiss mountain villages show that differences in meanings were found according to hazard experience and community size. We found commonly shared core representations, and single peripheral ones. We conclude with suggestions on how to make usage of the knowledge on SR in risk communication.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1556.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Food Science And Technology Keywords: risk analysis; risk communication; hazard; risk; food regulation; food safety
Online: 21 June 2023 (13:04:04 CEST)
For risk communication, it is important to understand the difference between "hazard" and "risk". Definitions can be found in Codex Alimentarius and the European Union (EU) General Food Regulation (EC) No 178/2002. The use of these terms as synonyms or their interchange is a recurrent issue in the area of food safety, despite awareness-raising messages sent by EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) and other interested entities. A quick screening of EU’s food regulations revealed several inconsistencies. Hence, it was considered necessary to further investigate if regulations could act as a source for this problem. A software tool was developed to support the detection and listing of inconsistent translations of “hazard” and “risk” in certain EU food regulations. Subsequently, native-speaking experts working in food safety, from each EU country, were asked to provide their individual scientific opinion on the prepared list. All data was statistically analyzed after applying numerical scores (1-5) describing different levels of consistency. Results showed that the most common problem was the interchange of “hazard” with “risk” and vice versa. This lack of consistency can create confusion that can further translate into misjudgments at food risk assessment and communication level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0551.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, biological invasions, regulations, policy, risk management
Online: 22 November 2018 (14:44:57 CET)
This report presents a framework for analysing the risk of alien taxa under South Africa's National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004, and the Alien and Invasive Species Regulations of 2014. While the report was initially designed to meet a specific South Africa need, the risk analysis processes developed can, we believe, be transferred to any specified geographic region. In outlining a series of questions related to a taxon’s likelihood of invasion and the consequences thereof, i.e. the potential impacts, the report provides a structure for collating data relevant to the process of listing taxa as well as a process for developing recommendations that is both mathematically sound, transparent, and that explicitly takes uncertainty into account. The framework is based on collating information according to international standards in biological invasions (specifically the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification of Alien Taxa Scheme, the CBD's scheme for classifying invasion pathways, and the Unified Framework for Biological Invasions proposed by Blackburn et al. 2011). The risk analysis framework is currently being implemented in South Africa in an effort to underpin national regulatory lists of invasive species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0030.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Architecture Keywords: green building; risk management; risk factors, risk mitigation measures; architect
Online: 2 May 2018 (16:55:58 CEST)
The number of green buildings has increased to address the global environmental crisis. However, green buildings face risks resulting from new materials and methods. In addition, these buildings are expected to perform at higher levels than traditional ones. The objectives of this study are to identify the possible risk factors for architects developing green building projects in South Korea and to assess risk mitigation measures. To attain this goal, fourteen risk factors and twelve mitigation measures were identified from a comprehensive literature review. A questionnaire survey was administered to architects practicing green building design. Findings revealed the ‘adoption of new technology and processes’ was the largest difference between green and traditional building projects. This study identified ‘financial risk,’ ‘design changes,’ and ‘client’s goal uncertainty’ as the top three risk factors in green building design. Additionally, the survey proposed the four most effective risk mitigation measures for green building projects: (1) ‘contract indicating each party’s roles, liabilities and limitations clearly’; (2) ‘utilizing integrated design process’; (3) ‘understanding client’s goal in green building projects’; and (4) ‘improving communication and coordination among stakeholders.’ There are a few studies focusing on the architects’ perceived risk concerning green building projects; however, this study expands the knowledge and fills the literature gap. Additionally, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of critical risks and mitigation measures that can benefit South Korea’s green building design practice through better risk management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0104.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: cyber risk; Internet of Things; cyber risk impact assessment; cyber risk estimation; cyber risk insurance
Online: 8 March 2019 (08:50:49 CET)
In this paper we present an understanding of cyber risks in the Internet of Things (IoT), we explain why it is important to understand what IoT cyber risks are and how we can use risk assessment and risk management approaches to deal with these challenges. We introduce the most effective ways of doing Risk assessment and Risk Management of IoT risk. As part of our research, we also developed methodologies to assess and manage risk in this emerging environment. This paper will take you through our research and we will explain: what we mean by the IoT; what we mean by risk and risk in the IoT; why risk assessment and risk management are important; the IoT risk management for incident response and recovery; what open questions on IoT risk assessment and risk management remain.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0119.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: Stress Testing; Credit Risk; Credit Risk Testing; Evaluation of Credit Risk; Credit Risk Management; Organizational Management
Online: 7 October 2021 (13:44:12 CEST)
The stress testing methodology should be implemented and applied to the entity's overall financial system at least annually, and if the organization operates in a volatile economy, it should be performed at least twice a year. Finally, managers should include regular training and development sessions for relevant employees of their organization to be fully informed and more informed and informed, considering the evolving science, theory and practicality of a discrete range of stress testing mechanisms that can be appropriately applied to overall financial framework and system of multiple financial institutions and banks. In addition, stress testing is essentially a methodology that collects and analyzes certain future macro-prudential and micro-prudential economic drivers and indicators, the primary purpose of which is to assess the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a financial institution, bank, organization, credit institution or economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically targeted and incorporated into a paper that substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance of the feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. with the primary intention of assessing the future financial and economic well-being, level of growth and status quo of a group of financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries. region. the level of growth and status quo of the financial institutions, banks, organizations, credit institutions or the economy or the nation as a whole. In addition, several of these reviews were specifically focused and incorporated into the paper, which substantially and broadly discussed and summarized the importance, feasibility and implementation and conclusions of different stress testing approaches for financial institutions and banks, especially in European and Chinese countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0002.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: water supply and demand; risk analysis; decision analysis; climate change; multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA); Denver-Colorado Metro Area (DCMA)
Online: 1 November 2023 (04:08:05 CET)
This study examines the DCMA concerning the future risk of the water security status. We considered three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and natural water supply demand differences. In the risk analysis part, we consulted with experts from several sectors including academia, Non-Governmental Organization (NGOs), and industry, to predict that the probability of future water stresses in high, medium, and low scenarios are 0.73, 0.24, and 0.03, respectively. In the decision analysis part, we adopted two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches that include Multiple Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to evaluate the best alternative decision to alleviate future water stresses in the DCMA. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the best option closely connects to the weighting scheme of the criteria considered in the framework. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework to analyze the water security status associated with the future water supply and demand gap decrease caused by three risk factors: population growth, climate change, and natural water supply.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0352.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: risk connectedness; network approach; value-at-risk; international stock market; extreme risk
Online: 20 March 2023 (07:57:54 CET)
We analyze the upside and downside risk connectedness among international stock markets. We characterize the connectedness among international stock returns using the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index approach and compute the upside and downside value-at-risk. We document that the connectedness level of the downside risk is higher than that of the upside risk and that stock markets are more sensitive when the stock market declines. We also find that specific periods (e.g., the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 turmoil) intensify the spillover effects across international stock markets. Our results demonstrate that the EU, Ger-many, and the US acted as net transmitters of dynamic connectedness; however, Japan (JP), China (CH), and India (IN) acted as net receivers of dynamic connectedness during the sample period. These findings provide significant new information to policymakers and market participants.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0346.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: environmental health; risk communication; risk management; particulate matter; risk analysis; mass event
Online: 27 April 2018 (05:15:54 CEST)
Atmospheric pollution arising from diesel-powered engines can result in acute and chronic diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. The annual carnival festival that takes place in the city of Salvador, Bahia-Brazil, is a large-scale event that gathers approximately 2 m revelers and 170,000 workers who accompany dozens of sound-trucks, or trios elétricos, for a period of seven days. These slow-moving sound-trucks run on diesel fuel, constantly exposing those around them to exhaust fumes. The present study aimed to evaluate air quality along the approximately 10km-long carnival parade circuit and determine possible impacts on human health. We applied a three-phase risk analysis strategy from 2007–2009: 1) hazard identification, 2) risk characterization and 3) risk management. Our quantification of atmospheric particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations revealed variable levels of PM2.5 ranging from 19 µg/m3 to 580 µg/m3, with peaks of up to 800 μg/m3 at sound-truck concentration areas. We then assessed the effects of air pollution on human health using ophthalmologic parameters obtained from 28 carnival volunteers, who often presented symptoms of eye irritation. Finally, we established strategies to communicate the study’s objectives and obtained results to the population through media outlets and open discussions with government agencies. According to our risk analysis, carnival sound-trucks represent the main source of atmospheric PM2.5 and NO2 pollution during the annual 7-day carnival festival. As a consequence of our research, the municipal government of Salvador issued an addendum to its carnival legislation mandating organizers to monitor atmospheric pollution, and, subsequently, all large-scale public events. Municipal government authorities have also promoted a shift from petroleum-based diesel fuel to biodiesel, a less-polluting fuel, for all adapted carnival sound-trucks. Our approach, which employed easily accessible and inexpensive methodology, provided substantial scientific evidence to support improvements in the regulation of air quality during large-scale public events held in the city of Salvador.Keywords: environmental
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0041.v3
Subject: Social Sciences, Safety Research Keywords: uncertainty management; risk management; safety; ISO 31000:2009; ISO 31010:2009; risk management framework; risk-sentience; safety culture; risk culture; enterprise risk management
Online: 19 June 2018 (12:58:28 CEST)
The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0134.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: risk; resilience; pandemic; prioritization; risk management; Arctic
Online: 4 June 2021 (10:40:38 CEST)
The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0422.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: transformation; flood risk reduction; Jakarta; risk governance
Online: 29 May 2018 (09:32:27 CEST)
Jakarta belongs to the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge and increasingly sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing risk reduction and adaption measures is therefore of utmost importance. Against the background, the paper draws on a discourse analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformative from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard will intensify in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning – particularly with regards to the accepted level of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0436.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Uncertainty; Climate risk assessment; Impact chain; Climate change; Risk; Tourism risk; Heat index
Online: 28 September 2022 (09:23:03 CEST)
The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0332.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: social risk; risk management; urban renewal; collectivism; China
Online: 18 August 2022 (07:41:22 CEST)
Social sustainability is the major concern of planners and local officials when urban renewal projects are being conducted. Extreme individualism can potentially cause conflicts of interest, making urban renewal in Western cities fraught with various types of social risks. As a country with deep-rooted socialist tradition, urban renewal projects in China are influenced by collectivist culture and show different features from those of the West. The objective of this research is to investigate how different stakeholders in urban redevelopment projects, including local residents, social organizations, the local state, and developers, interact with each other and how the associated social risks are hedged against. Using a recent well-known project in the city of Guangzhou, the authors attempt to present the latest progress in social risk management in China. With the support from a government-sponsored project, the authors have conducted a questionnaire-based survey and year-long follow-up fieldwork. Using ATLAS.ti software, we found that that “residents’ demand”, “status of collaboration”, and “degree of trust” are the keys to risk management. The results of an ordered probit model show that residents are worried about the overall planning, the relocation timetable, and whether their personal needs are taken into account. It is also indicated that the timely disclosure of project information, high-quality public participation, and a reasonable compensation plan can possibly boost the support rate. The authors suggest that utilizing China’s collectivist culture could be an effective way to mitigate social risks, and residents’ personal interests should also be respected.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0202.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Seismic vulnerability; Urban areas; Objective risk; Perceived risk
Online: 14 July 2022 (03:25:12 CEST)
The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact.The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, “hazard”, “exposure” and “vulnerability”. Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk.This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0169.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: asset allocation; risk factor; risk exposure; macro-factor
Online: 12 May 2022 (10:44:13 CEST)
Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0218.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: risk perception; geo-hydrological risk; education; Southern Italy
Online: 26 March 2018 (14:17:57 CEST)
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of disastrous events in the world, but several disparities in population vulnerability are being registered. One of the causes of these variances is different public risk perception also due to the degree of education and knowledge of the population. In this study, some of the results obtained in a risk perception survey are presented. The survey was carried out in an area of Calabria (Southern Italy) hit by geo-hydrological events that have occurred in recent years with damage to roads, tourism facilities and private houses. A statistical interpretation of the results highlights the importance of education and knowledge to risk perception on the part of the population investigated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0047.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geochemistry And Petrology Keywords: cancer risk; risk assessment; volcanic soils; Santiago Island
Online: 14 August 2017 (09:11:20 CEST)
The hazard and the carcinogenic risks due to the exposure to some potentially toxic elements by the Santiago Island (Cape Verde) population where calculated, considering soil ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact as exposure pathways. The topsoil of Santiago Island is enriched in Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Mn and Cd to upper crust values. Hazard indices (HI) were calculated for these metals and As exposures, of Santiago Island population and the calculations were performed for children and adults. For children HI are higher than 1 for Co, Cr and Mn. So there is indication of potential non-carcinogenic risk for children, due to the high Co (HI=2.995), Cr (HI=1.329) and Mn (HI=1.126), values in soils. For the other elements and for adults there is no potential non-carcinogenic risk. Cancer risk was calculated for As, Cd, Cr and Ni exposures, for adults and children and the results are always lower than the carcinogenic target risk of 1x10-6, for As, Cd, and Ni. However, cancer risk are higher than the carcinogenic target risk for Cr, for adults. Regarding As, for children the fraction due to Riskingestion represents 51.6%, while Riskinhalation represents 48.0% and Riskdermalcontact represents only 0.4% of total risk. For adults Riskinhalation represents 81.3%, Riskingestion represents 16.6% and Riskdermal contact represents 2.1%. These results reflect the higher daily ingestion dose for children and the higher inhalation rate and higher dermal contact surface for adults. For the other elements and for adults the cancer risk due to Cr, Ni and Cd inhalation is always higher than for children, reflecting the higher inhalation rate for adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0109.v2
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: Cyber risk; Internet of Things cyber risk; Digital Economy Risk Assessment; Economic Impact Assessment.
Online: 9 April 2019 (12:26:13 CEST)
We present an updated design process for adapting and integrating existing cyber risk assessment approaches for impact assessment for the risk from IoT to the digital economy. The new design process includes a set of changes to the original standards (e.g. NIST) that are adapted for the IoT cyber risk in this paper. This paper also presents a new framework for impact assessment of IoT cyber risk, specific for the digital economy.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0135.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: cardiovascular risk assessment; postmenopausal women; cardiovascular risk factors; emerging risk factors; hormone replacement therapy
Online: 8 June 2018 (12:46:31 CEST)
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rising rapidly among the postmenopausal woman but they are less likely to identify their risk by an appropriate risk assessment tool. This review evaluates available literature on cardiovascular risk assessment among postmenopausal women to provide a concise view of risk factors and disease burden among them, present risk assessment systems including their drawbacks, emergence of new risk factors and their role in risk prediction, and finally use of hormone replacement therapy during menopause. Results demonstrate that menopause is a transition point for developing CVD not due to physiological changes only but psychosocial factors like depression and marital stress are also responsible. Both conventional and emerging risk factors burden are high among postmenopausal women. Though data regarding CVD risk assessment among postmenopausal population is lacking but existing evidences claimed underestimation or overestimation of risk among women. Moreover application of different tools on same population has revealed significant variation in result. In this regard, recalibration of conventional tools with local data and new risk factors has showed improvement of risk prediction. Hormone replacement therapy during early menopause has reported beneficial to prevent CVD but in secondary prevention it has no role. All of these findings demand further studies on cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in developing countries where women after menopause are not in consideration of health strategy makers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0110.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: IoT Cyber Risk, IoT risk analysis, IoT cyber insurance, IoT MicroMort, Cyber Value-at-Risk
Online: 8 March 2019 (15:24:59 CET)
This paper is focused on mapping the current evolution of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks for the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) sector. We report the results of a qualitative empirical study that correlates academic literature with 14 - I4.0 frameworks and initiatives. We apply the grounded theory approach to synthesise the findings from our literature review, to compare the cyber security frameworks and cyber security quantitative impact assessment models, with the world leading I4.0 technological trends. From the findings, we build a new impact assessment model of IoT cyber risk in Industry 4.0. We therefore advance the efforts of integrating standards and governance into Industry 4.0 and offer a better understanding of economics impact assessment models for I4.0.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0987.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: market timing; risk management; risk hedging; equity market crashes
Online: 15 November 2023 (09:49:37 CET)
For a long-only active equity manager (or investor), the ability to hedge the downside risk before a significant price correction is a valuable skill. The authors proposed constructing a signal that provides timing information for a manager to hedge the downside risk. This systematic signal can help a manager put on a hedge before the price corrections of the dot com bubble in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. The signal is constructed for each GICS sector index in the S&P 500. When a sector’s PE indicates a high valuation and, at the same time, if the high valuation sector’s correlations with some other sectors are out of their historical norm, then these two conditions contribute a timing signal for the significant price swing of the index during the following six months. After observing the timing signal, managers can benefit significantly by hedging the downside risk. The signal can also be interpreted as the beginning of a high volatility regime for a sector.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0816.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Other Keywords: Framingham Risk Score; cardiovascular disease; prediction; risk factors; recalibration
Online: 12 October 2023 (16:24:30 CEST)
1. Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are India’s leading cause of mortality. This study aimed to recalibrate the original Framingham Risk Score (FRS) equations among adults in Kerala state. 2. Methods: Baseline survey data from the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program were analyzed: 921 males and 567 females for lipid-based FRS scores and 1042 males and 646 females for BMI-based FRS scores. Recalibration of the original FRS scores was performed using local data on CVD risk factors and CVD mortality. 3. Results: Among males, the median 10-year CVD risk with the recalibrated lipid-based FRS score was 7.34 (IQR 4.33-12.42), compared with the original score of 8.88 (5.23-14.87) (p<0.001). For BMI-based FRS scores, the median 10-year CVD risk was 7.40 (4.27-11.83) with the recalibrated score, compared to 9.32 (5.40-14.80) for the original score (p<0.001). In females, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.83 (2.90-8.36) with the recalibrated score, compared to 2.85 (IQR 1.71-4.98) with the original score (p<0.001). Similarly, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.66 (2.74-8.81) with the recalibrated BMI-based FRS score, compared to 2.95 (1.72-5.61) with the original score (p<0.001). 4. Conclusions: Recalibrated FRS scores estimated a significantly lower 10-year CVD risk in males and a higher risk in females than the original FRS scores.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1308.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Risk amplification effect; Risk preference; GM agricultural products; China
Online: 18 August 2023 (09:43:31 CEST)
Consumer preference for products made from transgenic technology has been widely studied, yet few studies exist exploring the factors influencing producers’ adoption of transgenic technology. Based on field surveys in Chinese provinces of Shanxi, Henan and Shandong, we employed a gambling experiment to capture producers’ risk preferences by estimating their risk aversion coefficients. We further estimated producers’ risk amplification and risk perception of GM technology. Using ordered logit model and Poisson model we identified the major factors influencing producers’ adoption of transgenic technology. We found the factors impacted the decision of producers from different regions in different ways. The results showed that over 60% of participants amplified the risk of transgenic crops. When there was potential risk, producers might not be rational even if they had high level of knowledge and cognition about the technology. Our results shed light on government policies aiming to increase the adoption of new technologies by producers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0019.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Robotics Keywords: Drone operation; Bayesian network; Risk modelling; Risk analysis; Indonesia
Online: 1 March 2023 (10:24:40 CET)
Limited accessibility in some parts of Indonesia causes difficulties in logistic distribution, especially for emergency and medical supplies. Emerging drone cargo technology is a potential solution to improve logistic distribution in those areas. However, implementing drone cargo technology involves unknown risks, both in technical and non-technical aspects. Since data on drone operations in Indonesia is limited, a new method is explored to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for risk analysis of drone crashes in Indonesia’s outermost and underdeveloped areas. The method optimizes the modelling process, in which significant risk factors are selected based on three drone operator companies’ experiences, which include wind speed, rain intensity, and system component failure or malfunction. Real wind speed and rain probability data are then implemented in the model. The operator’s data shows that wind speed contributes to drone crashes, which can be appropriately modelled in the BN model. The model produced a probability of safe operation of 94.1%, comparable to the annual operator’s data. The result shows that most operations are safe, with a minimum case of crashing and no case of harming human life.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0091.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: risk prediction; prediction models; risk of bias; PROBAST; melanoma
Online: 7 May 2022 (03:50:41 CEST)
Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict the individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall rating of ROB. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether 42 studies were assessed, of which a vast majority (n=34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our results of the temporal analysis showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain analysis. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0132.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: risk perception; coronavirus; covid-19; risk communication; global health
Online: 7 May 2020 (15:12:32 CEST)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0020.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: longevity risk; s-forwards; pricing; risk margin; solvency II
Online: 1 May 2017 (11:39:12 CEST)
Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1657.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: capital allocation problem; risk management; optimization; haircut principle; risk sharing
Online: 25 July 2023 (09:19:29 CEST)
The capital allocation framework proposed by  presents capital allocation principles as solutions to particular optimization problems and provides a general solution of the quadratic allocation problem via a geometric proof. However, the widely used haircut allocation principle is not reconcilable with that optimization setting. In this paper we provide an alternative proof of the quadratic allocation problem based on the Lagrange multipliers method to reach the general solution. We show that the haircut allocation principle can be accommodated to the optimization setting with the quadratic optimization criterion if one of the original conditions is relaxed. Two examples are provided to illustrate the accommodation of this allocation principle.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0811.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Sustainable Science And Technology Keywords: Heavy metals; Vegetables; Contamination; Pollution indicators; Cancer risk; Health risk
Online: 12 July 2023 (11:24:32 CEST)
Contamination of soil and crops with heavy metals (HMs) poses a significant environmental challenge in the United States. Hence, this study aimed to assess HM contamination levels from sampled Ohio and West Virginia soils using various pollution indicators analyses, including Enrichment Factor (EF), Geo-accumulation index (lgeo), Contamination Factor (CF), and Pollution Load Index (PLI) and identify the Translocation Factor (TF) of HMs in the edible part of the vegetables and further evaluate health risks associated with dietary exposure through estimations of Estimated Daily Intake (EDI), Hazard Index (HI), Target Hazard Quotient (THQ), Cancer Risk (CR) and Target Cancer Risk (TCR) on adults and children. In this study, Fe was the most predominant contaminant, ranging from 28.41 to 67.36 g/kg in the soil. Cancer risk assessment revealed that Ni poses significant risks. Therefore, regular monitoring of metal concentrations in soil and vegetables grown in these regions might mitigate potential health hazards in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0259.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Primary Health Care Keywords: prediction; risk factors; falls risk; Muslim; community-dwelling; elders; Pakistan
Online: 4 May 2023 (10:38:49 CEST)
Falls are the third-leading cause of disabilities among the elderly population worldwide. In Pakistan, the prevalence is 44%; out of them, 8% develop injuries, placing them at high risk for hospitalization or even premature death. Interestingly, fall is multifactorial, and fall risk depends on individual characteristics (intrinsic factors) and environmental features (extrinsic factors), which can be different from context to context. Therefore, regular assessment of fall risk factors is required to develop a strategy for fall prevention. This study aimed to identify intrinsic risk factors for falls in Pakistani elders living in the communities, and provide evidence for preventive strategies of falls in elderlies. Data were collected from 140 Muslim elders from two residential areas of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, from July 2022 to August 25, 2022, after taking permission from Zhengzhou University Ethical Review Board (ZUIRB #202254), and District Health Department Office (DHO #14207).Participants were informed and concern was taken before collect data. Data were collected using the Time Up and Go Test (TUGT), the Mini-Mental Status Examination, and interviews regarding the prayer practice. Factors associated with falls were; age, gender, education, cognitive status, TUGT level, incorrect prayer postures, poor vision, and history of falls with a significance of (P.<0.05). Poor cognition, low vision, poor walking speed, and prayers without body movements have good membership with falls risk prediction as (P<0.005) in Omnibus, Lemeshow score (0.77). Hence, our study provides a road map for future risk assessment for falls by adding the four mentioned risk factors as offered in the proposed model to facilitate taking timely action to prevent fall-related ailments in Pakistani elders.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0190.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: obesity; risk assessment; metabolic syndrome; AIP; HOMA-IR; risk stratification
Online: 4 May 2023 (04:32:38 CEST)
The pandemic of obesity worldwide has been recognized as a very important challenge. Within its complexity the identification of higher risk patients becomes essential since it seems unsustainable trying to offer access to treatment to all people with obesity. Several new approaches have recently been presented as important tools for risk stratification. This research applied some of these tools in a cross-sectional study involving adults with obesity classes I, II, III and super obesity. The participants had their cardiometabolic risk profile assessed. The study included adults with obesity, aged 18 to 50 years (n=404) who were evaluated for anthropometric, body composition, hemodynamic, physical fitness and biochemical assessments. These variables were used to identify the prevalence of risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases according to the classes of obesity, by gender and age group. The results showed a high prevalence of risk factors, especially among the upper classes of obesity (BMI > 35 kg/m2) using single parameters as the waist circumference with almost 90% above the cut-off point. But there were also smaller numbers as the Glycated Hemoglobin whose prevalence was around 30%. Indexes like the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) had the highest prevalence, with 100% of the male participants identified with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0132.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Other Keywords: fall risk assessment; risk of falling; force platforms; inertial sensors.
Online: 12 August 2016 (09:32:28 CEST)
Purpose: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recently published quality standards for assessment of fall risk and preventing further falls. According to the standards, multifactorial fall risk assessments should include: identification of falls history; analysis of gait, balance, mobility and muscle strength, among other factors. Despite being based on subjective analysis or simple timing and not being multifactorial, physiotherapists and physicians quite often use these tests as reference scales to differentiate between lower and higher risk of falling. Instrumented TUG has been recently reported to provide important additional information to the overall score. Objective: To explore a case-based approach of fall risk assessment to identify the most relevant and informative risk factors that in combination could better define a person risk profile. Materials and Methods: A multifactorial assessment of fall risk through questionnaires, standard functional tests, tests instrumented with inertial sensors, and force platforms has been studied within a group aged 55-80 years old. Different fall risk factors and fall risk assessment methods were analyzed in a case-based descriptive study. Results & Discussion: Subjects at higher risk of falling were identified based on their detailed profiles. A set of features were obtained from the instrumented standard tests differing significantly between subjects presenting higher or lower fall risk. Therefore, instrumenting conventional tests with wearables containing inertial sensors and force platforms gives more detailed and quantitative insights. This information can be used to better define and tailor fall prevention exercises and to improve the follow-up of the evolution of the subject.
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: Mitigation; Risk Reduction; Global Catastrophic Biological Risk; Epidemics; Disease X; Literature Review; Pandemics; Value of Information; Existential Risk
Online: 28 February 2020 (12:32:33 CET)
There are potentially promising mitigation activities for epidemic and pandemic scenarios that are not currently the subject of significant research effort. Large epidemics and pandemics pose risks that are important to mitigate, even if the likelihood of the events is low and uncertain. While some efforts are the subject of extensive funding and consideration, other approaches are neglected. Here, we consider such neglected interventions which could significantly reduce the impact of such an epidemic or large-scale pandemic. These are identified via a narrative literature review of extant literature reviews and overviews of mitigations in epidemic and pandemic situations, followed by consideration of the economic value of information of further study of heretofore neglected interventions and approaches.Based on that analysis, we considered several classes of mitigations, and conducted more exploratory reviews of each. Those discussed include mitigations for (1) reducing transmission, such as personal protective equipment and encouraging improved hygiene, (2) reducing exposure by changing norms and targeted changes for high-risk or critical professions and activities, (3) reducing impact for those infected, and (4) increasing large scale resilience using disaster and infrastructure continuity planning.Some proposed mitigations are found to be of low marginal value. Other mitigations are likely to be valuable, but the concepts or applications are underdeveloped. In those cases, further research, resources, or preparation are valuable for mitigating both routine and extreme disease outbreak events. Still more areas of research are identified as having uncertain value based on specific but resolvable uncertainties. In both of the latter cases, there is no guarantee that mitigations identified as worthy of further consideration will be valuable, but the argument for further research is clear.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0011.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: Global risk factors; Credit Default Swaps; Sovereign credit risk; Copulas approach
Online: 1 November 2021 (11:50:02 CET)
This study examined the tail dependency structure of sovereign credit risk and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using copulas approach, which is known for its ability to provide the “true” tail correlation based on the correct marginal distribution. The empirical results show that global market risk sentiment comoves with sovereign CDS spreads across BRICS countries under extreme market events, with Brazil having the highest co-dependency followed by China, Russia, and South Africa. Furthermore, oil price volatility is the second biggest risk factor correlated with sovereign CDS spreads for Brazil and South Africa while exchange rate risk exhibits very small co-dependence with sovereign CDS spreads under extreme market conditions dominated by tail events. On the contrary, exchange rate risk is the second largest risk factor co-moving with China and Russia’s sovereign CDS spreads while oil price volatility exhibits the lowest co-dependence to CDS in these countries. Between oil price and currency risk, evidence of single risk factor dominance is found for Russia where exchange rate risk is largely dominant. These results suggest that BRICS policymakers might consider financial sector regulations that mitigate risks spill-over such as targeted capital controls when markets are distressed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0066.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: cyber physical systems; cybercrime; risk mitigation; risk management; industrial control systems
Online: 5 April 2018 (06:10:06 CEST)
Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) is the integration of computation and physical process that makes a complete system such as the physical components, networked systems, embedded computers and software and linking together of devices and sensors for information sharing. Cyber Physical Systems are Smart Systems that comprises of the merging and integration of Industry Control Systems, Critical Infrastructures, Internet of Things (IoT) and Embedded Systems. Major industries such as the Chemical and Industrial Plants, Aviation Systems, National Grid, the Stock Exchange, Military Systems, and others depends heavily on these Cyber Physical Systems for financial and economic growth. The benefits of CPS nationally and globally are in the areas of Manufacturing, Energy, Transport, Healthcare and Communication. Cyber Physical Systems incorporates Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements on network infrastructures to provide interactive systems. However, these three key components the Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements may have inherent threats and vulnerabilities on them that may run the risk of being compromise, exploited, attacked or hacked. Cybercriminals in their quest to bring down these systems and may cause disruption of services either for fame, revenge, political motive, economic war, cyber terrorism and cyber war. The study seeks to review the risks that are associated with these three key components Physical systems, Digital systems and Human elements. The study considered four main risk mitigation goals for this purpose, and these are Business Value, Organizational Requirements, Threat Agent and Impact based on the review results. We used Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to determine the relative importance of these goals that contributes to developing cybercrime and rich in CPS. For the results, the prioritized goals are then used to assess the risks using a semi-quantitative approach to determine the net threat level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201609.0028.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: VOC; technological risk; exposure to risks; DRI; risk mapping; SIG; BTEX
Online: 13 September 2016 (03:42:52 CEST)
The population’s mobility in urban areas is a necessary variable in the modeling of risk scenarios caused by atmospheric contamination. The inclusion of this concept makes static models more dynamic while considering people within a city to be an entity with complex mobility processes. We propose a conceptual and methodological tool to make the representation of the social, economic and territorial components, as well as the patterns in the population´s mobility to delimitate risk areas for human health by exposure of contaminants. In the volatile organic compounds (VOC), benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene and xylene (BTEX) are amongst the most dominant substances in fugitive vapor emissions in gas stations (GS). In urban areas, the exposure to BTEX by residential proximity and proximity to other facilities, which cause intra-urban agglomeration, can impact and affect human health. This model seeks to facilitate the focalization, identification and prioritization of risk areas by BTEX environmental contamination. This article goes beyond de conceptual framework. It suggests methodological and instrumental aspects to be applied in other cities. The government agencies must consider these results when establishing rules, permissions and procedures to reduce environmental pollution for managing the risk in a complex urban environment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0662.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Flood, Risk, Profile, Nigeria
Online: 11 October 2023 (09:26:34 CEST)
Flooding in Nigeria has recently acquired a new dimension and turned into a significant concern in terms of the total amount of property destroyed and the number of people affected. Flooding is one of the top ten natural disasters in the globe. The frequent flooding in Nigeria, which is often related to climate change and poor urban design, is a major worry from the standpoint of the country's development. Flooding and other related threats are becoming more likely to affect infrastructure and population.Neighbourhoods around the nation are increasingly more significantly impacted. Populations and infrastructure are significantly impacted by urban facilities encroaching on floodplains and low implementation of physical planning requirements for floodplain management and waterway development. Because of this, livelihoods are less able to repair after a storm. The nation's rapid urbanisation and population growth have raised the danger of flooding to both people and properties. Critically, a major obstacle to risk control is a lack of understanding of the risk. As a result, there is a significant knowledge vacuum regarding how to improve current efforts to solve the problems caused by Nigeria's floods as efforts to address the threat appear to be limited.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1630.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: Random Forest; Loan Risk
Online: 22 June 2023 (12:50:50 CEST)
As people's consumption habits change, loan plays a crucial role in our modern society. It provides individuals who do not have sufficient money with funds to purchase residential property or start a business. However, for avoiding unpleasant loan defaults, all financial institutions will first assess the borrower's risk index. By predicting the default risk of the borrower to decide whether to lend money. Machine learning algorithms, including random forest, linear regression and so on, have been benefited most of the real-world applications. With the development of machine learning methods, this paper, based on the personal history loan data of an institution studies the loan default risk, and uses the random forest classification model to predict the possibility of loan default. The result showed that the accuracy of this method was 85.62%, which show its application ability of real-world loan prediction and benefits the manager to decide the degree of risk for loan grant.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2005.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Aquatic Science Keywords: Risk assessment; tidal stream energy; environmental effects; collision risk; marine renewable energy
Online: 28 September 2023 (13:04:49 CEST)
Commercial development of tidal stream energy is hampered by technical and financial challenges, and impeded by uncertainty about potential environmental effects that drive environmental risk assessments and permitting (consenting) processes. The effect of greatest concern for operational tidal stream energy devices is the potential for marine animals to collide with turbine blades, resulting in injury or death. Due to the turbulent and often turbid waters that frequently characterize tidal turbine sites, there is an absence of empirical evidence about collisions with marine animals. This paucity of observations often leads to risk-averse permitting decisions that further restrict the deployment of tidal energy devices that are needed to collect this evidence. This paper relies on the framework of stressors and receptors that is used widely in marine energy studies and outlines a stepwise probabilistic methodology that applies existing knowledge to further elucidate the risk to marine animals from operational tidal turbines. A case study using striped bass from the Bay of Fundy, Canada, accompanies the methodology, to partially demonstrate its application.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0247.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: risk communication; resilience; psychometric paradigm; analytical hierarchal process.; risk perception; natural hazards
Online: 5 June 2023 (05:40:41 CEST)
Understanding how the public perceives various risks and hazards associated with our well-being and health is crucial for government and policymakers. The present research aimed to assess the public's perception of various risks and hazards associated with their well-being and health. The study combined two well-known approaches to risk assessment, namely, the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and the psychometric paradigm. Seven risk attributes were chosen from the risk perception literature to evaluate 27 risks and hazard activities using a survey questionnaire developed based on the psychometric paradigm literature. The collected data was then analyzed using AHP to determine the priority weight for each risk attribute. The results showed that the most important risk attribute was voluntariness of risk, followed by chronic-catastrophic and newness of risk. Furthermore, the study found that natural hazards were ranked the highest, followed by refugee influx and fire hazards. In contrast, the mobile phone was perceived as the lowest type of risk. The findings can be used by policymakers to develop effective and sustainable risk communication strategies. Policymakers can use the research findings to create effective and sustainable risk communication strategies that help the government to inform and educate the public about potential risks, improve coordination among agencies and stakeholders, and enhance public trust in government decision-making.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2019.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: aortic stenosis; transcatheter aortic valve replacement; age; surgical risk; low-intermediate risk
Online: 29 May 2023 (14:36:38 CEST)
Background: Current European guidelines support transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TA-VI) in intermediate to low-risk patients ≥75 years-old but its prognostic relevance is unknown. Methods: Intermediate-to-low-risk (Society of Thoracic Surgeon score <8%) patients enrolled in the HORSE registry were included. We compared the population with less versus more than 75 years old. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Results: A total of 2685 patients were included, 280 (8.6%) <75 and 2405 ≥75 years. Through a mean follow-up of 437 ± 381 days, 198 (8.2%) and 23 (8.2%) patients died in the two arms, without statistically significant differences (log-rank p=0.925). At Cox regression analysis, age did not predict the occurrence of all-cause death, neither as a continuous variable (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04, p=0.294) nor dichotomizing according to the prespecified cutoff of 75 years (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.63-1.51p=0.924). Time-to-event ROC curves showed low accuracy of age to predict all-cause mortality (area under the curve of 0.54 for both 1-year and 2-year outcomes). Conclusions: TAVI has comparable benefits across age strata in intermediate-to-low risk patients. The age cut-off suggested by current guidelines is not predictive of the risk of adverse events during hospital stay, neither of all-cause mortality through a mid-term follow-up.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0197.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: construction; safety; risk; hazard; critical control risk management; critical control; fatality prevention
Online: 13 July 2022 (09:18:21 CEST)
Across the global construction industry, fatalities continue to occur from high-risk activities where the risk controls have been defined, however were unreliable. In the mining industry, Critical Control Risk Management has provided positive results in reducing major accidents, which raises the question, could the Critical Control approach reduce the fatality rate in the construction industry? This study analysed 10 years of serious and fatal incident investigation reports from four international construction companies to i) assess the reliability of their Critical Controls (CCs) and ii) assess the factors which affect the reliability of CCs. The results show the reliability of CCs, measured by implementation and effectiveness, averaged just 42%. Human performance factors including risk identification, decision-making and competency together with supervision, job planning, communication organisational factors were identified as affecting the reliability of CCs. The study used bow-tie diagrams with real event data to find the actual CC effectiveness. This gave actionable findings directly related to individual CCs enabling the participating organization to focus resources on improving specific verification processes. The results confirm the applicability of CCs for the Major Accident Event hazards analyzed and highlights further review is required of the factors which need to be considered when implementing a CC program. This paper details our methodology and results, to assist others apply CCs as a risk management tool.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0970.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Forestry Keywords: tree risk assessment; decay; resistance drilling; tomography; tree risk assessment qualification; tree stem
Online: 26 April 2023 (07:41:38 CEST)
Arborists commonly investigate the extent of stem decay to assess the likelihood of stem failure when conducting tree risk assessments. Studies have shown that (i) arborists can sometimes judge the extent of internal decay based on external signs; (ii) sophisticated tools can reliably illustrate the extent of internal decay; and (iii) assessing components of tree risk can be highly subjective. We recruited 18 experienced tree risk assessors who held the International Society of Arboriculture’s Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ) to assess the likelihood of stem failure due to decay after each of 5 consecutive assessments on 30 individuals of 2 genera. Five assessment techniques, in stepwise order, were 1) visual, 2) sounding the trunk with a mallet, 3) viewing a scaled diagram of the cross-section that revealed sound and decayed wood ascertained from resistance drilling, 4) viewing sonic and electrical resistance tomograms, and 5) consulting with a peer. For each technique, assessors assigned two or more likelihood of failure ratings (LoFRs) for at least 83% of trees, which were proportionally greatest after assessors viewed tomograms; the proportions did not differ among the other four assessment techniques. Covariates that influenced the distribution of LoFRs included percent of the cross-section that was decayed, and assessors’ experience using resistance drilling devices and tomography in regular practice. Practitioners should be aware that disagreement on the likelihood of tree failure exists even among experienced arborists.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0023.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: perturbation expansion; Green’s function; model risk; model uncertainty; credit derivatives; CVA; correlation risk
Online: 4 January 2018 (03:24:24 CET)
We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.2037.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: hypertension; risk factors; Huambo; Angola
Online: 31 October 2023 (08:56:04 CET)
WHO estimates that around 600 million people suffer from high blood pressure which causes high costs for health systems and influences the economy of these countries. In this study, we investigate the sociodemographic characteristics and risk factors related to hypertension among individuals from Huambo, Angola. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 158 participants consulted in the Cardiology services at Hospital Geral do Huambo, between January and July 2023. A total of 67.1% of the studied patients were hypertensive. The mean age of the hypertensive (55.8±11.3) patients was higher than non-hypertensive (53.1±13.4) patients, although no significance was observed (p=0.199). Patients aged between 30 and 40 (OR=1.19, P=0493), male (OR=1.17, P=660), employees (OR=9.94, P=0935), patients consuming alcohol (OR=1.11, P=0.864), and practising physical activity (OR=1.12, P=0.742) presented a high chance of developing hypertension, while those living in urbanized areas (OR=0.78, P=0.59) and with a low educational level (OR=0.43, P=0.194), had a low chance to develop hypertension. There was no statistical significance between demographic or behavioural characteristics with hypertension (P>0.05). Regarding clinical characteristics, body mass index was statistically related to hypertension (p=0.011). Our findings show that hypertension is a major health problem for the young population of Huambo. There is an urgent need to create strategies to improve the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of hypertension, not only in Huambo but throughout the country. Further studies to understand determinants related to hypertension should be carried out among the young population in Angola.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1106.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: sensor networks; risk; security; vulnerability
Online: 18 October 2023 (10:21:41 CEST)
in our increasingly interconnected world, sensor networks are critical in gathering and sending data for various applications, from environmental monitoring and industrial automation to healthcare and smart cities. However, as sensor networks expand in importance, so does the need to solve the multidimensional concerns of security, privacy, and forensics. This article explores the complex world of sensor network security, the delicate balance between data privacy and utility, and the emerging area of sensor network forensics. This article focuses on risk assessment of a network.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1672.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Food Science And Technology Keywords: lymph node; risk assessment; quantification
Online: 25 September 2023 (11:02:19 CEST)
Previous bio-mapping studies of pork processing facilities have indicated a need for mitigation strategies in trim and ground products due to Salmonella prevalence. Lymph nodes have been identified as a source of Salmonella in pork products. The objective of this study was to determine if the removal of glands and lymph nodes in pork would reduce Salmonella and indicator organisms in comminuted products. Samples from a commercial pork facility were divided into three treatment groups; 1) untreated control, 2) topical glands removed before final processing, and 3) topical, jowl, and internal lymph nodes and glands removed before final processing. Samples were evaluated for indicator organisms and quantity of Salmonella using the BioMérieux TEMPO® system and BAX® System Real-Time Salmonella SalQuant™ methodology, respectively. The results of this study indicate that the removal of the topical, internal, and jowl lymph nodes was effective at significantly (P > 0.05) reducing the prevalence of both Salmonella and indicator organisms. Salmonella was reduced from 2.5-Log CFU/Sample and 3.8-Log CFU/Sample of Salmonella in control group ground and trim samples, to less than 1-Log CFU/sample in both matrices from treatment 3. These data indicate that samples from treatment 3 had an average of a 3-Log reduction, and treatment 2 had a 2.5-Log reduction, of Salmonella when compared to the control samples. This indicates that the physical removal of glands and lymph nodes can influence Salmonella and indicator organism prevalence in the final product.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1018.v2
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: cyber risk; contagion; autoregressive models
Online: 23 August 2023 (07:56:09 CEST)
Financial technologies, stemming from the application of artificial intelligence to big data in finance, are continuously expanding, across different markets and financial services. While financial technologies bring many opportunities, such as reduced costs and extended inclusion, they also bring risks, among which cyber risks, which are constantly increasing and are difficult to measure. Among the difficulties in measurement lies the existence of interdependence among different cyber risks. The study of interdependence and possible contagion channels between cyber attacks to different institutions and economic sectors is indeed increasingly important to ensure economic and financial sustainability. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a multivariate model for count time series of cyber risk events, in which the time-varying intensity parameter determining the probability that a cyber attack occurs evolves according to general autoregressive score models, taking both time and sectorial dependence into account. The model is particularly suitable for studying how the behaviors of different markets or sectors are interconnected and it constitutes a new approach to the multivariate analysis of count time series of cyber loss events.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1152.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Anesthesiology And Pain Medicine Keywords: Hypothermia; abdominal surgery; Risk factors
Online: 16 May 2023 (10:33:27 CEST)
Objective: To describe the proportion of patients undergoing major abdominal surgery who develop postoperative hypothermia, and the variables associated with its occurrence. Material and Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study in a tertiary care referral hospital in Mexico City to describe the incidence of perioperative hypothermia and factors associated with postoperative hypothermia. A repeated measures ANOVA model was used to compare preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative temperatures. Potential variables associated with hypothermia were evaluated with a logistic regression analysis. Results: A total of 110 patients were included in the analysis. Of them, 61% (n=67) were women. The mean age was 56.7 years (SD: 16.3, range: 75). The most frequently involved organ on which surgery was performed was kidney or urinary tract (21.8%), followed by large bowel (14.5%) and exploratory laparotomy (14.5%). The incidence of postoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery was 57.3%, while preoperative and intraoperative hypothermia occurred in 55.5% and 79.1%, respectively. Age over 60 years was the only variable associated with postoperative hypothermia after multivariable adjustment for sex, age, and time surgery (OR=18.4, 95% CI:3.79-89.6, p<0.0001). Conclusion: Increasing age was the only variable associated with postoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0100.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Security Systems Keywords: Blockchain Technologies; Cryptocurrencies; Risk; Value
Online: 6 April 2023 (13:45:45 CEST)
The aim of the article is to present a snapshot in time, of the current state in cryptocurrencies, the values and risks associated to blockchains. With emergence of over 20,000 crypto projects, the first objective of this article is to present the stage as it is in 2023, with historical overview since Satoshi presented the first paper on decentralised blockchains, until today. Second objective of the article is to review the values and risks associated to cryptocurrencies, and to clarify the differences between cryptocurrencies from blockchain technologies. The research questions that drive this article are related determining if the blockchain technology an innovation or its already obsolete technology? Are there any significant risks from cryptocurrencies? And are the potential values to society and economy worth pursuing? Would developed or developing countries benefit more from these technologies? And which blockchain projects will survive in the long run? In other words, where is the money and is there money or just hype. The review discusses the high probability that some crypto projects will fail, and given the vast number of cryptos, the article acknowledges that many of these projects are nothing more than ponzies. These are discussed and acknowledged, then the focus is shifted to the real-world use cases of blockchain projects.