Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs). However, several studies have dealt with geographically distributed PVs in a certain area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or whether to wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. For the special case of weather and climate forecasts in the form of normal distributions we derive a simulation algorithm, and equivalent analytical expressions, for calculating these two probabilities. We apply the algorithm to forecasts of temperature and find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes. Similar problems have been studied in many other fields, and we explore some of the connections.

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall event represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to climate change effect on the territory [1, 2] as several studies demonstrate that the increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes [3]. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria Region of central Italy.

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

We provide a comprehensive framework for forecasting five minute load using Gaussian processes with a positive definite kernel specifically designed for load forecasts. Gaussian processes are probabilistic, enabling us to draw samples from a posterior distribution and provide rigorous uncertainty estimates to complement the point forecast, an important benefit for forecast consumers. As part of the modeling process, we discuss various methods for dimension reduction and explore their use in effectively incorporating weather data to the load forecast. We provide guidance for every step of the modeling process, from model construction through optimization and model combination. We provide results on data from the PJMISO for various periods in 2018. The process is transparent, mathematically motivated, and reproducible. The resulting model provides a probability density of five-minute forecasts for 24 hours.

Runtime verification (RV) is a lightweight approach to detecting temporal errors of system at runtime. It confines the verification on observed trajectory which avoids state explosion problem.To predict the future violation, some work proposed the predictive RV which uses the information from models or static analysis. But for software whose models and codes cannot be obtained, or systems running under uncertain environment, these predictive methods cannot take effect. Meanwhile, RV in general takes multi-valued logic as the specification languages, for example the " true, false and inconclusive" in three-valued semantics. They cannot give accurate quantitative description of correctness when "inconclusive" is encountered. We in this paper present a RV method which learns probabilistic model of system and environment from history traces and then generates probabilistic runtime monitor to quantitatively predict the satisfaction of temporal property at each runtime state. In this approach, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is firstly learned and then transformed to Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC). To construct incremental monitor, the monitored LTL property is translated into Deterministic Rabin Automaton (DRA). The final probabilistic monitor is obtained by generating the product of DTMC and DRA, and computing the probabilities for each state. With such method, one can give early warning once the probability of correctness is lower than pre-defined threshold, and have the chance to do adjustment in advance. The method has been implemented and experimented on real UAS (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) simulation platform.

Background: Benveniste’s biology experiments suggested the existence of molecular-like effects without molecules (“memory of water”). In this article, it is proposed that these disputed experiments could have been the consequence of a previously unnoticed and non-conventional experimenter effect. Methods: A probabilistic modelling is built in order to describe an elementary laboratory experiment. A biological system is modelled with two possible states (“resting” and “activated”) and exposed to two experimental conditions labelled “control” and “test”, but both biologically inactive. The modelling takes into account not only the biological system, but also the experimenters. In addition, an outsider standpoint is adopted to describe the experimental situation. Results: A classical approach suggests that, after experiment completion, the “control” and “test” labels of biologically-inactive conditions should be both associated with “resting” state (i.e. no significant relationship between labels and system states). However, if the fluctuations of the biological system are also considered, a quantum-like relationship emerges and connects labels and system states (analogous to a biological “effect” without molecules). Conclusions: No hypotheses about water properties or other exotic explanations are needed to describe Benveniste’s experiments, including their unusual features. This modelling could be extended to other experimental situations in biology, medicine and psychology.

In this study, the probabilistic exergoeconomic analysis was performed for four industrial gas turbine (GT) units comprising of two (GT16 and GT19) units of 100MW GE engine and two (GT8 and GT12) units of 25MW Hitachi engine at Transcorp Power Limited, Ughelli. These four industrial GT engine units were modelled and simulated using natural gas as fuel. The design point (DP) simulation results of the modelled GT engines were validated with the available DP thermodynamic data from original equipment manufacturer (OEM). This was done before the off-design point (ODP) simulation was carried out which represents the plant operations. The results obtained from exergy analysis at full load operation show that the turbine has the highest exergy efficiency followed by compressor and combustion having the least. For turbines these were 96.13% for GT8 unit, 98.02% for GT12 unit, 96.26% for GT16 unit, and 96.30% for GT19 unit. Moreover, the combustion chamber has the highest exergy destruction efficiency of 55.16% GT8 unit, 56.58% GT12 unit, 43.90% GT16 unit, and 43.30% GT19 unit respectively. The exergy analysis results obtained from the four units show that the combustion chamber (CC) is the most significant exergy destruction with lowest exergy efficiency and highest exergy destruction efficiency of plant components. The exergoeconomic analysis results from four units showed combustion chamber energy destruction cost of 531.08 $/h GT8 unit, 584.53 $/h GT12 unit, 2351.81$/h GT16, and 2315.93$/h GT19 unit. The probabilistic results analysis based on the input parameters distributions evaluated and discussed.

In this paper we consider the congruence problem that arises in the post-analysis of Bayesian network models reconstructed from different datasets. Apart from the structure, a typical network numerically encodes relationship intensities, assigning numerical score to network edges via the scoring criterion used in the reconstruction process. This scoring is rarely a directly interpretable quantity with proper units of measure and an absolute scale, and often comes short in desirable characteristics of a true metric. This leads to poor portability of edge magnitude considerations between similar networks, originating from different sources. In this work, we address this problem by estimating the effect that data-specific resolution limit has on conditional independence, as reflected by information-theoretic entropy, and by the appropriate modification of MDL score, which removes the inconsistency between the score components in both the meaning and units. We also numerically validate our findings and expose additional performance advantages obtained via this modification.

The Kolkata Paise Restaurant Problem is a very challenging game, where n agents have to decide where they will have lunch on a busy day during their lunch break. The game is very interesting because there are exactly n restaurants and each restaurant can accommodate only one agent. If two or more agents happen to choose the same restaurants, only one gets served and the others have to return back to work hungry. In this paper, we tackle this problem from an entirely new angle. We abolish certain implicit assumptions, which allows us to propose a novel strategy with greater utilization of the restaurants and overall efficiency. We emphasize the spatially distributed nature of our approach, which, for the first time, perceives the locations of the restaurants as uniformly distributed in the entire city area. This critical change in perspective has profound ramifications in the topological layout of the restaurants, which now makes it completely realistic to assume that every agent has a second chance. Every agent now may visit, in case of failure, more than one restaurants, within the predefined time constraints. From the point of view of each agent, the situation now resembles more that of the iconic travelling salesman, who must compute an optimal route through n cities. Following this shift in paradigm, we advocate the use of metaheuristics, as exacts solution of the TSP are prohibitively expensive, because they can produce near-optimal solutions in a very short amount of time. The use of metaheuristics enables each agent to compute her own personalized solution, incorporating her preferences, and providing alternative destinations in case of successive failures. We analyze rigorously the resulting situation, proving probabilistic formulas that confirm the advantages of this policy and the increase in utilization. The detailed mathematical analysis of our scheme demonstrates that it can achieve utilization ranging from .85 to 0.95 from the first day, while rapidly attaining steady state utilization 1.0. Moreover, the equations we have developed generalize previously presented formulas in the literature, which can be shown to be special cases of our results.

By combining stochastic variational inference with message passing algorithms we show how to solve the highly complex problem of navigation and avoidance in distributed multi-robot systems in a computationally tractable manner, allowing online implementation. Subsequently, the proposed variational method lends itself to more flexible solutions than prior methodologies. Furthermore, the derived method is verified both through simulations with multiple mobile robots and a real world experiment with two mobile robots. In both cases the robots shares the operating space and needs to cross each other’s paths multiple times without colliding.

This is a short note on a new way to describe Haug's newly introduced maximum velocity for matter in relation to the Schwarzschild radius. This leads to a probabilistic Schwarzschild radius for elementary particles with mass smaller than the Planck mass. In addition, our maximum velocity, when linked to the Schwarzschild radius, seems to predict that particles just at that radius cannot move. This implies that radiation from the Schwarzschild radius not can undergo velocity time dilation. Our maximum velocity of matter, therefore, seems to predict no time dilation, even in high Z quasars, as has surprisingly been observed recently.

In the paper, by virtue of a Lévy–Khintchine representation and an alternative integral representation for the weighted geometric mean, the authors establish a Lévy–Khintchine representation and an alternative integral representation for the Toader–Qi mean. Moreover, the authors also collect an probabilistic interpretation and applications in engineering of the Toader–Qi mean.

Photovoltaic power generation has high variability and uncertainty because it is affected by uncertain factors such as weather conditions. Therefore, probabilistic forecasting is useful for optimal operation and risk hedging in power systems with large amounts of photovoltaic power generation. However, deterministic forecasting is the mainstay of photovoltaic generation forecasting; there are few studies on probabilistic forecasting and feature selection from weather or time-oriented features in such forecasting. In this study, prediction intervals were generated by the lower upper bound estimation using neural networks with two outputs to make probabilistic predictions. The objective was to improve prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), mean prediction interval width (MPIW), and loss, which is the integration of these two metrics, by removing unnecessary features through feature selection. When features with high gain were selected by random forests (RF), in the forecast of 14.7-kW PV systems, loss improved by 1.57 kW, PICP by 0.057, and MPIW by 0.12 kW on average over two weeks compared to the case where all features were used without feature selection. Therefore, the low gain features from RF act as noise in LUBE and reduce the prediction accuracy.

Seismic travel time tomography using surface waves is an effective tool for three-dimensional crustal imaging. Historically, these surface waves are the result of active seismic sources or earthquakes. More recently, however, also surface waves retrieved through the application of seismic interferometry are exploited. Conventionally, two-step inversion algorithms are employed to solve the tomographic inverse problem. That is, a first inversion results in frequency-dependent, two-dimensional maps of phase velocity, which then serve as input for a series of independent, one-dimensional frequency-to-depth inversions. As such, a two-dimensional grid of localized depth-dependent velocity profiles are obtained. Stitching these separate profiles together subsequently yields a three-dimensional velocity model. Relatively recently, a one-step three-dimensional non-linear tomographic algorithm has been proposed. The algorithm is rooted in a Bayesian framework using Markov chains with reversible jumps, and is referred to as transdimensional tomography. Specifically, the three-dimensional velocity field is parameterized by means of a polyhedral Voronoi tessellation. In this study, we investigate the potential of this algorithm for the purpose of recovering the three-dimensional surface-wave-velocity structure from ambient noise recorded on and around the Reykjanes Peninsula, southwest Iceland. To that end, we design a number of synthetic tests that take into account the station configuration of the Reykjanes seismic network. We find that the algorithm is able to recover the 3D velocity structure at various scales in areas where station density is high. In addition, we find that the standard deviation on the recovered velocities is low in those regions. At the same time, the velocity structure is less well recovered in parts of the peninsula sampled by fewer stations. This implies that the algorithm successfully adapts model resolution to the density of rays. Also, it adapts model resolution to the amount of noise on the travel times. Because the algorithm is computationally demanding, we modify the algorithm such that computational costs are reduced while sufficiently preserving non-linearity. We conclude that the algorithm can now be applied adequately to travel times extracted from (time-averaged) station-station cross correlations by the Reykjanes seismic network.

The article analyzes Bernoulli 's binary sequences in representation of empirical events about the distribution of natural resources and population sizes. Considering the event as a nonlinear system, and consisting of two dependent random variables, with memory and probabilities in maximum finite or infinite lengths, constant and equal to ½ for both variables (stationary process). The expressions of the possible trajectories remain constant in sequences that are repeated alternating the presence or absence of one of the variables at each iteration (asymmetric). There are constant oscillations in the event except if the variables X₁ and X₂ are regulated as a function of time Y. It is observed that the variables X₁ and X₂ assume in time T_k → ∞ specific behaviors (geometric variable) that can be used as management tools for random systems. In this way, the article seeks to know from this analyzes, the maximum entropy of information in the system by a theoretical view and how to model resources distribution or containment in the given problem.

The implementation of green roofs as sustainable urban drainage systems provides benefits for stormwater control and the environment and is always more encouraged. In this paper, the estimation of the probability of vegetation survival without irrigation has been proposed as a guide to choose the proper values for the design parameters; in particular the growing medium thickness has been related to the average return interval of the water content at the end of the dry period. Moreover the study represents an improvement of the analytical probabilistic approach since a chain of consecutive rainfall events has been considered, in order to take into account the possibility that the storage capacity is not completely available at the beginning of each event because of the pre-filling from more than one previous rainfall as typically happens for green roofs. Finally, developed equations have been validated by means of their application to two case studies, respectively in northern and southern Italy.

The age of information (AoI) metric was proposed to measure the freshness of messages obtained at the terminal node of a status updating system. In this paper, the AoI of discrete time status updating system with probabilistic packet preemption is investigated by analyzing the steady state of a three-dimensional discrete stochastic process. Assuming the queue used in system is Ber/Geo/1/2*/η, which represents that the system size is 2 and the packet in buffer can be preempted by fresher packet with probability η. Instead of considering system’s AoI separately, we use a three-dimensional state vector (n,m,l) to simultaneously track the real time changes of the AoI, the age of packet in server, and the age of packet waiting in buffer. We give the explicit expression of system’s average AoI, and show that the average AoI of system without packet preemption is obtained by letting η=0. When η is set to 1, the mean of AoI of system having Ber/Geo/1/2* queue is obtained as well. Combining the results we have obtained and comparing them with corresponding average continuous AoIs, we propose a possible relationship between average discrete AoI with Ber/Geo/1/c queue and the average continuous AoI with M/M/1/c queue. For each of two extreme cases where η=0 and η=1, we also determine the stationary distribution of AoI using the probability generation function (PGF) method. The relations between average AoI and the packet preemption probability η, as well as AoI’s distribution curves in two extreme cases are illustrated by numerical simulations. Notice that the probabilistic packet preemption may occur, for example, in an energy harvest (EH) node of wireless sensor network, where the packet in buffer can be replaced only when the node collects enough energy. In particular, to exhibit the usefulness of our idea and methods and highlight the merits of considering discrete time systems, in this paper we give much more explanations showing that how the results about continuous AoI is derived by analyzing the corresponding discrete time system, and how the discrete age analysis is generalized to the system with multiple sources. In terms of packet service process, we also propose our idea to analyze system’s AoI when the service time distribution is relaxed to be arbitrary.

Multiple governmental agencies and private organisations have made commitments for the colonisation of Mars. Such colonisation requires complex systems and infrastructure that could be very costly to repair or replace in cases of cyber-attacks. This paper surveys deep learning algorithms, IoT cyber security and risk models, and established mathematical formulas to identify the best approach for developing a dynamic and self-adapting system for predictive cyber risk analytics supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning and real-time intelligence in edge computing. The paper presents a new mathematical approach for integrating concepts for cognition engine design, edge computing and Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to automate anomaly detection. This engine instigates a step change by applying Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning embedded at the edge of IoT networks, to deliver safe and functional real- time intelligence for predictive cyber risk analytics. This will enhance capacities for risk analytics and assists in the creation of a comprehensive and systematic understanding of the opportunities and threats that arise when edge computing nodes are deployed, and when Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning technologies are migrated to the periphery of the internet and into local IoT networks.

Since its post-World War II inception, the science of record linkage has grown exponentially and is used across industrial, governmental, and academic agencies. The academic fields that rely on record linkage are diverse, ranging from history to public health to demography. In this paper, we introduce the different types of data linkage and give a historical context to their development. We then introduce the three types of underlying models for probabilistic record linkage: Fellegi-Sunter based methods, machine learning methods, and Bayesian methods. Practical considerations such as data standardization and privacy concerns are then discussed. Finally, recommendations are given for organizations developing or maintaining record linkage programs, with an emphasis on organizations measuring long-term complications of disasters such as 9/11.

This paper uncovers that quantum uncertain principle makes the single particle with global property have no certain path, and then wave of quantum particle can simultaneously do pass the double slits. The two subwaves after passing Young’s double slits are entanglement, they may form interference of subwaves. Consequently, we find a kind of quantum probabilistic entanglements with Wheeler's delayed choice. Quantum particles such as photons, electrons, neutrons, protons etc mean that wave of the quantum particle can simultaneously do pass through Young's double slits, rather than individual quantum particle may pass through Young's double slits at the same time. When considering wave property, we cannot consider particle property (Just as in the photoelectric effect, considering the particle nature of the system, people cannot consider wave property, otherwise the photoelectric effect cannot appear). Therefore, this paper discovers that the ability of single photon to hit electrons out in photoelectric effect is complementarily equivalent to the ability of wave of the single photon to simultaneously pass through Young's double slits in wave-particle duality. Objective criteria for distinguishing classical and quantum particles are discovered and objectively give the applicable realm of quantum mechanics for the first time. The crisis of the single particle’s simultaneously passing through Young's double slits, which has been plaguing physicists in the whole world up to now for decades, is solved, in which the studies are classified as classical and quantum particles, the classical particle and quantum particle wave cannot and can pass the Young’s slits, respectively. This paper discovers both the new physics mechanism of passing the double slits of the wave with the amplitude of 4-dimensional momentum representation wave function reflecting particle nature and the principle of self-adaptive emergence of wave-particle duality, and then using the principle, this paper gives both direct explanations to the current experiments and new predictions of new some experiments for wave-particle duality. All the deduced results here are consistent with all relevant physics experiments.

Activation Functions are crucial parts of the Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks. From the Biological point of view, a neuron is just a node with many inputs and one output. A neural network consists of many interconnected neurons. It is a “simple” device that receives data at the input and provides a response. The function of neurons is to process and transmit information; the neuron is the basic unit in the nervous system. Carly Vandergriendt (2018) stated the human brain at birth consists of an estimated 100 billion Neurons. The ability of a machine to mimic human intelligence is called Machine Learning. Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks was designed to work like a human brain with the aid of arbitrary choice of Non-linear Activation Functions. Currently, there is no rule of thumb on the choice of Activation Functions, “Try out different things and see what combinations lead to the best performance”, however, sincerely; the choice of Activation Functions should not be Trial and error. Jamilu (2019) proposed that Activation Functions shall be emanated from AI-ML-Purified Data Set and its choice shall satisfy Jameel’s ANNAF Stochastic and or Deterministic Criterion. The objectives of this paper are to propose instances where Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks are SUPERINTELLIGENT. Using Jameel’s ANNAF Stochastic and or Deterministic Criterion, the paper proposed four classes where Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks are Superintelligent namely; Stochastic Superintelligent, Deterministic Superintelligent, and Stochastic-Deterministic 1^st and 2^nd Levels Superintelligence. Also, a Normal Probabilistic-Deterministic case was proposed.

We investigate the power of time series analysis based on a variety of information-theoretic approaches from statistics (AIC, BIC) and machine learning (Minimum Message Length) - and we then compare their efficacy with traditional time series model and with hybrids involving deep learning. More specifically, we develop AIC, BIC and Minimum Message Length (MML) ARMA (autoregressive moving average) time series models - with this Bayesian information-theoretic MML ARMA modelling already being new work. We then study deep learning based algorithms in time series forecasting, using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), and we then combine this with the ARMA modelling to produce a hybrid ARMA-LSTM prediction. Part of the purpose of the use of LSTM is to seek capture any hidden information in the residuals left from the traditional ARMA model. We show that MML not only outperforms earlier statistical approaches to ARMA modelling, but we further show that the hybrid MML ARMA-LSTM models outperform both ARMA models and LSTM models.

Reassessment of the fatigue life for wind turbines structural components is typically performed using deterministic methods with the same partial safety factors as used for the original design. However, in relation to life extension, the conditions are generally different from the assumptions used for calibration of partial safety factors; and using a deterministic assessment method with these partial safety factors might not lead to optimal decisions. In this paper, the deterministic assessment method is compared to probabilistic and risk-based approaches, and the economic feasibility is assessed for a case wind farm. Using the models also used for calibration of partial safety factors in IEC61400-1 ed. 4 it is found that the probabilistic assessment generally leads to longer additional fatigue life than the deterministic assessment method. The longer duration of the extended life can make life extension feasible in more situations. The risk-based model is applied to include the risk of failure directly in the economic feasibility assessment and it is found that the reliability can be much lower than the target for new turbines, without compromising the economic feasibility.

Corona virus disease (COVID-19) has infected over more than 10 million people around the globe and killed at least 500K worldwide by the end of June 2020. As this disease continues to evolve and scientists and researchers around the world now trying to find out the way to combat this disease in most effective way. Chest X-rays are widely available modality for immediate care in diagnosing COVID-19. Precise detection and diagnosis of COVID-19 from these chest X-rays would be practical for the current situation. This paper proposes one shot cluster based approach for the accurate detection of COVID-19 chest x-rays. The main objective of one shot learning (OSL) is to mimic the way humans learn in order to make classification or prediction on a wide range of similar but novel problems. The core constraint of this type of task is that the algorithm should decide on the class of a test instance after seeing just one test example. For this purpose we have experimented with widely known Generalized Regression and Probabilistic Neural Networks. Experiments conducted with publicly available chest x-ray images demonstrate that the method can detect COVID-19 accurately with high precision. The obtained results have outperformed many of the convolutional neural network based existing methods proposed in the literature.

Blockchain technology has been gaining great interest from a variety of sectors including healthcare, supply chain, and cryptocurrencies. However, Blockchain suffers from its limited ability to scale (i.e. low throughput and high latency). Several solutions have been proposed to tackle this. In particular, sharding proved that it is one of the most promising solutions to Blockchain’s scalability issue. Sharding can be divided into two major categories: (1) Sharding-based Proof-of-Work (PoW) Blockchain protocols, and (2) Sharding-based Proof-of-Stake (PoS) Blockchain protocols. The two categories achieve good performances (i.e. good throughput with a reasonable latency), but raise security issues. This article focuses on the second category. In this paper, we start by introducing the key components of sharding-based PoS Blockchain protocols. Then, we briefly introduce two consensus mechanisms, namely PoS and practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (pBFT), and discuss their use and limitations in the context of sharding-based Blockchain protocols. Next, we provide a probabilistic model to analyze the security of these protocols. More specifically, we compute the probability of committing a faulty block and measure the security by computing the number of years to fail. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model via numerical analysis.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

The present work deals with the development of finite element methodology for obtaining the stress distributions in thick cylindrical HK40 stainless steel pipe that carry high temperature fluids. The material properties and loading are assumed to be random variables. Thermal stresses that are generated along radial, axial and tangential directions are computed generally using analytical expressions which are very complex. To circumvent such an issue, the probability theory and mathematical statistics have been applied to many engineering problems which allows to determine the safety both quantitatively and objectively based on the concepts of reliability. Monte Carlo simulation methodology is used to study the probabilistic characteristics of thermal stresses which is used for estimating the probabilistic distributions of stresses against the variations arising due to material properties and load. A 2-D Probabilistic finite element code is developed in MATLAB and the deterministic solution is compared with ABAQUS solutions. The values of stresses that are obtained from the variation of elastic modulus are found to be low as compared to the case where the load alone is varying. The probability of failure of the pipe structure is predicted against the variations in internal pressure and thermal gradient. These finite element framework developments are useful for the life estimation of piping structures in high temperature applications and subsequently quantifying the uncertainties in loading and material properties.

Probabilistic inference problems have very broad practical applications. To solve this kind of problems under conditions of certainty, an effective mathematical apparatus has been developed. In real situations, obtaining deterministic estimates of relevant probabilities is often difficult; therefore, problems with handling uncertain estimates of probabilities appear. This paper examines the problem of probabilistic inference with probability trees provided that the initial probabilities are given in the form of intervals of their possible values.

Inspired by the reflective and deliberative control mechanisms used in cognitive architectures such as SOAR and Sigma, we propose an alternative decision mechanism driven by architectural appraisals allowing robots to overcome impasses. The presented work builds on and improves on our previous work on a generally applicable decision mechanism with roots in the Standard Model of the Mind and the Generalized Cognitive Hour-glass Model. The proposed decision mechanism provides automatic context-dependent switching between exploration-oriented, goal-oriented, and backtracking behavior, allowing a robot to overcome impasses. A simulation study of two applications utilizing the proposed decision mechanism is presented demonstrating the applicability of the proposed decision mechanism.