ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0718.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading
Online: 30 March 2021 (09:40:33 CEST)
With the now available vaccination against Covid-19 it is quantitatively explored how vaccination campaigns influence the mathematical modeling of epidemics. The standard susceptible-infectious-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemic model is extended to the fourth compartment V of vaccinated persons and the vaccination rate v(t) that regulates the relation between susceptible and vaccinated persons. The vaccination rate v(t) competes with the infection (a(t)) and recovery (\mu(t)) rates in determining the time evolution of epidemics. In order for a pandemic outburst with rising rates of new infections it is required that k+b<1-2\eta, where k=\mu_0/a_0 and b=v_0/a_0 denote the initial ratios of the three rates, respectively, and \eta << 1 is the initial fraction of infected persons. Exact analytical inverse solutions t(Q) for all relevant quantities Q=[S,I,R,V] of the resulting SIRV-model in terms of Lambert functions are derived for the semi-time case with time-independent ratios k and b between the recovery and vaccination rates to the infection rate, respectively. These inverse solutions can be approximated with high accuracy yielding the explicit time-dependences Q(t) by inverting the Lambert functions. The values of the three parameters k, b and \eta completely determine the reduced time evolution the SIRV-quantities Q(\tau). The influence of vaccinations on the total cumulative number and the maximum rate of new infections in different countries is calculated by comparing with monitored real time Covid-19 data. The reduction in the final cumulative fraction of infected persons and in the maximum daily rate of new infections is quantitatively determined by using the actual pandemic parameters in different countries. Moreover, a new criterion is developed that decides on the occurrence of future Covid-19 waves in these countries. Apart from Israel this can happen in all countries considered.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0238.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Applied Mathematics Keywords: Corona Virus; Covid-19; India; Pandemic; Mathematical modeling
Online: 19 June 2020 (10:31:02 CEST)
In the present time, the biggest problem of the world is the outbreak of novel coronavirus. Novel coronavirus (COVID-19), this one name has become a part of our daily lives over the past few months. Beyond the boundaries of medical science, coronavirus is now the main subject of research in all fields like Applied Mathematics, Economy, Philosophy, Sociology, Politics upto living room. The epidemic has brought unimaginable changes in our traditional habits and daily routines. Thousands of people in our country are fighting with the rest of the world to survive in various new situations. There are different kinds of coronavirus appeared in different times. In this time, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19). This virus was first identified towards the end of 2019 in the city of Wuhan in the province of Hubei in China. Within very short duration of time and very fast, it has spread throughout a large part of the world. In this study, the main aim is to investigate the spreading rate, death rate, recovery rate due to corona virus infection and to study the future of the coronavirus in India by using mathematical modeling based on the previous data. Mathematical models, in this situation, are the important tools in recruiting effective strategies to fight this epidemic. India is at high risk of spreading the disease and is facing many losses in socio-economic aspects. With current infection rates and existing levels of personal alertness, the number of infected people in India will increase at least in the next three months. Proper social awareness, maintain of social distance, large rate of testing and separation may break the chain of the Coronavirus-2.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0628.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: Volatility; COVID-19 Pandemic; GARCH models; Euro area stock indices.
Online: 25 March 2021 (14:44:00 CET)
Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. Thus, this investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of ten euro area stock indices from 4th January 2016 to 31th December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with large and middle financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0372.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus; Pandemic; Epidemiological Analysis; Exponential Growth; Herd Immunity; Doubling Period
Online: 23 May 2020 (10:36:33 CEST)
As an on-going pandemic caused by the out-break of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or simply COVID-19 sweeps through the globe at an unprecedented rate leaving behind trails of high infection and mortality, it is crucial to understand the propagation dynamics of the virus in a host population in order to take urgent and effective remedial and mitigating steps to save life. It is already observed in many countries and communities that accurate and timely testing, tracing, and tracking of the infection lead to better containment and slowing down of the spread. In this exploratory research, the early growth dynamics of infection within a population is pursued based on real data. The study posits that the early growth in a homogenous population follows an exponential pattern motivating further rigorous quantitative treatment based on a number of analytical models such as logistic model, Richard’s model, and Gompertz model– the acceleration pattern of the outbreak is ascertained from the daily inflection data, and regression analysis against population models yields dynamic growth indices which allow very accurate prediction of the successive outbreak size when calibrated continually with updated data. The performance of the various models is evaluated with the real dataset. More, the basic reproduction number of the COVID-19 virus propagation in the community is estimated based on the on-set phase dataset using multi-compartmental epidemiological model. Also, the maximum infection size, infection doubling time and the scope of the herd immunity are also inferred for COVID-19 in a population.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0495.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Analysis Keywords: coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19); analysis; modeling; recommendations; surveillance; social media analytics; meteorological effects; image processing; business and economy
Online: 24 August 2020 (02:54:47 CEST)
COVID-19 has created anxiety not only in individuals but also in health organizations, and countries worldwide. Not a single industry is left un-influenced and loss is being estimated in billions of dollars. The widespread of this pandemic disease has challenged researchers all over the world. Some of the researchers are working to invent its cure while, others are applying computing technologies to stop its spread, by analyzing and identifying patterns for prediction and forecasting. This is by no doubt the hottest area of research for the last 100 years. This survey has targeted the research published in computing sub-domains to combat the pandemic. The survey has clustered the scientific efforts into logical groups: surveillance, metrological effects, social media analytics, image processing and business and economy, analysis and modeling. It will serve as a leading source for the followings: researchers who want to identify what has been achieved in different computing sub-domains, those who need fresh authenticated datasets openly accessible for different research contexts and what are future directions in this area of research. The findings of analysis and modeling can be also useful for government agencies who want to set priorities and formulate policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0531.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Sars-CoV-2; confirmed daily infections; mathematical model
Online: 20 November 2020 (09:37:07 CET)
The developments of confirmed daily Sars-CoV-2 infections can be modeled a posteriori in a comparatively simple and satisfactory way by means of a special exponential function: its exponential coefficient varies exponentially with time itself. This property enables the function to directly simulate the „daily case“ curve fragments observed for the first waves of the current epidemics in a number of counties and countries. Linear combinations of two or more of the functions allow for the modeling of the complete curves observed in the vast majority of all regions for which case number developments have been tabulated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0293.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: filovirus; pandemic preparedness; synergy; viral pathogens; mathematical modeling; projected benefit in humans
Online: 12 February 2021 (08:43:41 CET)
Outbreaks of Ebola ebolavirus (EBOV) have been associated with high morbidity and mortality. Milestones have been reached recently in the management of EBOV disease (EVD) with licensure of an EBOV vaccine and two monoclonal antibody therapies. However, neither vaccines nor therapies are available for other disease-causing filoviruses. In preparation for such outbreaks, and for more facile and cost-effective management of EVD, we seek a cocktail containing orally available and room temperature stable drugs with strong activity against multiple filoviruses. We previously showed that (bepridil + sertraline) and (sertraline + toremifene) synergistically suppress EBOV in cell cultures. Here we describe steps towards testing these combinations in a mouse model of EVD. We identified a vehicle suitable for oral delivery of the component drugs and determined that, thus formulated the drugs are equally active against EBOV as preparations in DMSO, and they maintain activity upon storage in solution for up to seven days. Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies indicated that the drugs in the oral delivery vehicle are well tolerated in mice at the highest doses tested. Collectively the data support advancement of these combinations to tests for synergy in a mouse model of EVD. Moreover, mathematical modeling based on human oral PK projects that the combinations would be more active in humans than their component single drugs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1783.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: Covid-19; Pandemic; Agent-Based Models (ABM); Human Movement Modeling; Envi-ronment modeling; Disease Propagation and Containment
Online: 25 May 2023 (09:01:44 CEST)
It is crucial to immediately curb the spread of a disease once an outbreak is identified in a pandemic. An agent based simulator will enable the policymakers to evaluate the effectiveness of different hypothetical strategies and policies with a higher level of granularity. This will allow them to identify the vulnerabilities and asses the threat level more effectively, which in turn can be used to build resilience within the community against a pandemic. This study proposes a PanDemic SIMulator (PDSIM ) which is capable of modeling complex environments while simulating realistic human motion patterns. The ability of PDSIM to track the infection propagation patterns, contact paths, places visited, characteristics of people, vaccination, and testing information of the population, allows the user to check the efficacy of different containment strategies and testing protocols. The results obtained based on the case studies of Covid-19 are used to validate the proposed model. However, it is highly extendable to all pandemics in general, enabling robust planning for more sustainable communities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0240.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: COVID19,PANDEMIC
Online: 14 May 2020 (12:08:06 CEST)
Aim of the study: Aim of he study was to analyse correlation of daily maximum temperature on corona virus daily growth rate as well as effect of lockdown on daily growth rate of cases. Materials and Methods:All the data regarding new cases of covid 19 Pandemic in Gujarat was collected from Gujarat health department website., Temperature details were collected from www.accuweather.com. Growth rate was calculated as a percent increase of new cases daily compared to previous day active cases. Relations between trends were calculated from correlation and regression studies. MANNOVA analysis was performed. Results:Total 6625 cases, 4729 active cases and 380 deaths were reported as on 6th May 2020 in Gujarat. Daily maximum temperature was significantly correlated inversely with daily growth rate. (p value= 0.010) with Pearson correlation coefficient =-0.363. Correlation between time since lock down to daily case growth rate was non significant. (p=0.123). Phases of lockdown and growth rates showed significant inverse correlation. (p=0.002). Multivariate ANOVA showed there was statistical significant difference in case growth rate based on daily temperature [p= 0.006 F=4.71] and progression of phases of lockdown (p=0.018, F=3.55). Conclusion:Conclusion increase in temperature has inverse relationship in growth rate in covid 19 pandemic. Lockdown may be useful in decreasing growth.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0054.v1
Subject: Engineering, Industrial And Manufacturing Engineering Keywords: pandemic; influenza pandemic; open source; open hardware; COVID-19; COVID-19 pandemic; medical hardware; open source medicine
Online: 6 April 2020 (12:38:59 CEST)
Distributed digital manufacturing offers a solution to medical supply and technology shortages during pandemics. To prepare for the next pandemic, this study reviews the state-of-the-art for open hardware designs needed in a COVID-19-like pandemic. It evaluates the readiness of the top twenty technologies requested by the Government of India. The results show that the majority of the actual medical products have had some open source development, however, only 15% of the supporting technologies that make the open source device possible are freely available. The results show there is still considerable work needed to provide open source paths for the development of all the medical hardware needed during pandemics. Five core areas of future work are discussed that include: i) technical development of a wide-range of open source solutions for all medical supplies and devices, ii) policies that protect the productivity of laboratories, makerspaces and fabrication facilities during a pandemic, as well as iii) streamlining the regulatory process, iv) developing Good-Samaritan laws to protect makers and designers of open medical hardware, as well as to compel those with knowledge that will save lives to share it, and v) requiring all citizen-funded research to be released with free and open source licenses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0240.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: diagnostics, manufacturing, pandemic preparedness,
Online: 14 December 2022 (01:17:31 CET)
Rapidly providing a definitive diagnostic test that can be used broadly by healthcare providers and members of the public in the setting of a disease emergency is critical to limit pathogen spread, develop and deploy medical countermeasures, and mitigate the social and economic harms of a serious epidemic or pandemic. There is extraordinary expertise within and outside of government working on these issues, and major accomplishments have been made to accelerate test development, expand laboratory testing capacity, and establish widespread point-of-care testing. Still, the United States does not have a plan to rapidly respond, to develop, manufacture, or deploy at national scale diagnostic testing in the earliest days of a new infectious disease crisis. Nor does the nation have a plan to sustain testing capacity at high volume over the course ofan enduring epidemic or pandemic. To address this gap, we are proposing a National Diagnostics Action Plan that describes the steps that are urgently needed to prepare for future infectious disease emergencies, as well as the actions we must take at the first signs of such events. These recommendations require substantial collaboration between the US government (USG) and the private sector to solve a series of challenges now, as well as to prepare for the massive and rapid scale-up of laboratory and point-of-care test development and testing capacity in future emergencies. The recommendations include establishing pre-event contracts; ensuring rapid access to clinical samples; creating a permanent public-private testing coordinating body to allow for rapid information sharing and improved cooperation among the USG, test developers, and clinical laboratories; and accelerating testing rollout at the beginning of an event—andthus, the effective public health management of a disease crisis. These recommendations were informed by extensive discussion with people who managed the COVID-19 and monkeypox responses, review of past reports written on diagnostic challenges, and the experiences of the authors.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0607.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Nursing Keywords: Nurses; Covid-19 pandemic
Online: 24 December 2020 (08:54:34 CET)
The Saudi government has undertaken rapid and swift actions, such as suspending Omrah and holding international flights. Such affirmative actions enhanced citizens and residents’ confidence in the government officials’ ability to fight the pandemic. However, there are more than 361,178 reported cases of Covid-19 with 6131 deaths as of December 22, 202. As nurses are the largest component of the health care workforce in Saudi Arabia, it is important that they are trained and have the skills and resources to adapt, whether on the frontline of a crisis or in a clinical environment. Nurses play a key function in fulfilling the needs of medical treatment by being the most important part of the health care delivery system.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0160.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: Pandemic; ICT; Teaching; Learning; Evaluation
Online: 10 May 2021 (10:27:12 CEST)
The Coronavirus outbreak that began in December, 2019 became a worldwide pandemic by March, 2020. The education industry had to adapt to this new change in a speedy and most feasible way by shifting to virtual classes over the internet and other available resources. WhatsApp has turned out to be a boon in academic’s section where in all the teachers have their own subject-wise groups on the said application. This not only helps them to share the necessary information resources but also to have discussion regarding the subject matter. On the other side, this application allows easy access for the students to all the resources shared by the teacher, and they can share their assignments without much difficulty with their subject teachers. Therefore, it has become a primary tool for conducting teaching, learning and evaluation online. The researchers have tried to analyze impact of online classes and the efforts required by the students to learn online with the help of survey conducted with the sample size of 514. The survey questionnaire was grouped into 4 categories namely; Opinion on Information and Communications Technology (ICT) based Teaching, Changes in communication behavior due to ICT using WhatsApp, the main hindrance for integration of ICT (Information Communication Technology) in the teaching-learning process and disadvantages of using ICT for teaching and learning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0129.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Impact; Bangladesh
Online: 7 July 2020 (16:26:57 CEST)
The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in a developing country like Bangladesh is enormous. A research conducted by South Asian network of Economic Modelling predicted that the pandemic could double the poverty. But it is not that only the socioeconomic condition is dropping in Bangladesh, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic is manifold. The poor condition of Bangladesh's health sector has also been exposed due to the pandemic. People are not getting proper treatment due to lack of isolation beds, oxygen, ICU etc. The health sector of Bangladesh is not much developed and now with this pandemic it has become impossible to provide treatment facility for all the patients. Education sector, which is the backbone of a country,has also been greatly affected by the pandemic. We know that different types of cultural occasions are an inherited tradition of Bangladesh, COVID-19 have not even spared these traditions, all the cultural programes and festivals have been cancelled due to this pandemic.In this paper, our aim is to present the present status of all these sectors.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0309.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: security; resilience; pandemic; COVID-19
Online: 26 June 2020 (12:14:21 CEST)
This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation and subsequent resumption of those patterns. The validity of the proposed resilience assessment tool is demonstrated using commercial theft data from the COVID-19 pandemic period. A 64 per cent reduction in crime was found in the studied city (China) during an 83-day period, before daily crime levels bounced back to higher than expected values. The proposed resilience indicators are recommended as benchmarking instruments for evaluating and comparing the global impact of COVID-19 policies on crime and public safety.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0161.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: COVID 19; mortality; Iran; pandemic
Online: 9 May 2020 (10:08:24 CEST)
Background: Corona virus disease was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei province, China. Soon the corona virus disease has spread to many countries. World health organization has described the situation as Pandemic. By 12 March 2020, corona virus disease has affected 125 countries around the world. Corona virus was first confirmed in Iran on 19 February 2020. Objective: The aim of writing this small article is to determine the mortality rate of corona virus disease in different cities of Iran. This article will give readers an idea of different ways to control spread of corona virus disease in Iran. Methods: Author has collected the data of daily confirmed cases from different diagnostic centers and hospitals across the country from 19 February 2020 to 1 April 2020. Results: Mortality rate of corona virus disease is roughly 4%. Conclusions: Mortality rate could rise if COVID 19 infection is not controlled.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0449.v2
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; Covid-19; pandemic; primer; India; mortality rate; evolution; updated primer; evolving pandemic
Online: 1 June 2020 (11:08:03 CEST)
In this paper we first provide a primer on SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 delineating the etiopathogenesis, epidemiology, clinical manifestations and the natural history of the disease. We then trace the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic highlighting the characteristics of the epidemic in China where the pandemic originated, select countries of Europe which peaked during April, and Brazil, US and India where the pandemic has taken serious turns recently. We also project some possible trajectories for the mega cities of India based on the demographic characteristics of these cities in comparison to New York city. This is an updated version of the article from mid-April published online.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0318.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Other Keywords: ventilator; pandemic; ventilation; influenza pandemic; coronavirus; coronavirus pandemic; pandemic ventilator; single-limb; open source; open hardware; COVID-19; medical hardware; RepRap; 3-D printing; open source medical hardware; embedded systems; real-time operating system
Online: 26 June 2020 (17:25:16 CEST)
This study describes the development of an automated bag valve mask (BVM) compression system, which, during acute shortages and supply chain disruptions can serve as a temporary emergency ventilator. The resuscitation system is based on the Arduino controller with a real-time operating system installed on a largely RepRap 3-D printable parametric component-based structure. The cost of the system is under $170, which makes it affordable for replication by makers around the world. The device provides a controlled breathing mode with tidal volumes from 100 to 800 milliliters, breathing rates from 5 to 40 breaths/minute, and inspiratory-to-expiratory ratio from 1:1 to 1:4. The system is designed for reliability and scalability of measurement circuits through the use of the serial peripheral interface and has the ability to connect additional hardware due to the object-oriented algorithmic approach. Experimental results demonstrate repeatability and accuracy exceeding human capabilities in BVM-based manual ventilation. Future work is necessary to further develop and test the system to make it acceptable for deployment outside of emergencies in clinical environments, however, the nature of the design is such that desired features are relatively easy to add with the test using protocols and parametric design files provided.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2211.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Psychiatry And Mental Health Keywords: Dentist; stress; resilience; Covid 19; Pandemic
Online: 31 May 2023 (11:03:07 CEST)
The novel coronavirus has affected the mental state of the general public, more so among healthcare workers. During the pandemic when the infectivity had become intense, dental professionals were at stake as their work demanded more proximity with oral and nasal secretions. Many dentists had to close their clinics for fear of infection. This had a significant impact on their financial, social and emotional wellbeing. Stress is what arises when something we care about is at stake. Dentistry which is already a stressful discipline, the pandemic has multiplied the already existing pressures of isolation, the focus on perfectionism, compromise on treatment, and time pressures. Our study has attempted to assess the perceived stress among dentists and the various correlates impacting the same. Resilience is the capacity to bounce back productively during stressful situations. Resilience acts like a buffer to wither stress. Resilience is neither permanent nor global. In our study, we have attempted to assess resilience among dentists using a standard validated scale and various sociodemographic factors impacting resilience. Further, we have tried to assess the correlation between stress and resilience. We found that senior dentists with more years of experience had more resilience and their perceived stress was less. Though we found increased perceived stress among women dentists, resilience did not have any gender difference. It is essential to be pandemic prepared with the implementation of resilience-building strategies at various levels.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1927.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Neuroscience And Neurology Keywords: COVID19; Children; Epilepsy; Adolescents; Pediatric; Pandemic
Online: 26 May 2023 (11:00:40 CEST)
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted health care worldwide. As the pandemic has been prolonged, quarantine restrictions have been lightened gradu-ally, which can influence outcomes of pediatric patients with chronic disease such as epi-lepsy by increase of susceptibility of the COVID-19 infection. The aim of this study was to determine impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on seizure control and identify potential risk factors that might worsen seizure attacks during the pandemic in children with epilepsy. We performed a retrospective chart review of 48 pediatric patients with epilepsy during the COVID-19 pandemic from January 2016 to July 2022. During the COVID-19 pandemic period, 25% of pediatric patients experienced sei-zure worsening, showing an increase in seizure frequency or duration or both. Factors associated with worsening seizures during pandemic were: diagnosis of epi-lepsy less than one year, comorbid conditions with cerebral palsy or having a tracheosto-my or a PEG, and infection with other viruses (respiratory syncytial virus, influenza virus A, influenza virus B) rather than COVID-19 infection. Our finding highlights the need to proactively monitor and regularly follow up (es-pecially short period of time) patients after they are diagnosed with epilepsy. It is also important to properly manage those who are susceptible to serious illness and keep sea-sonal viral infections under surveillance to manage exacerbated seizure in children with epilepsy. Furthermore, pediatric physicians should not overlook surveillance of seasonal respiratory viruses since quarantine restrictions are getting eased.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1856.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: COVID-19; suicide; accident; pandemic; impact
Online: 26 May 2023 (05:07:16 CEST)
Globally 703 000 people commit suicide (4th leading cause of mortality among 15-29 year-olds, 1.4% of all deaths globally) every year, which have a negative effect on families, colleagues, and societies. India accounts for 36.6 percent of global suicide in women and 24.3 percent among men, while having only 17.8 percent of the global population, also remarkable fact is that the suicide ratio for female is 14.7 per 100,000 compared to 21.2 per 100,000 of male which is 2.1 times the global average in female, while 1.4 times higher for men. COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019) pandemic has certainly affected the physical, mental, economical and social well being of global population directly or indirectly in different ways. Deteriorating physical, mental, economical and social health of an individual could increase the suicidal tendency, leading to accidents and suicide. This study tried to find out the COVID-19 pandemic situation impact on accidental death as well as suicide rates in India. The study period is from 1st January 1967 to 31st December 2021, to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic situation on suicide and accidental death rates. This study revealed that the suicide deaths percentage among males increased significantly in comparison to females in COVID-19 era and actual count and incidence also increased. This study revealed that the mean accidental death and suicide both increased during COVID period of study as compared to pre-pandemic whole period from 1967 by 25.47 % and 30.61% respectively. Alternatively we can say that the accidental death and suicides increased significantly in India, which is largely preventable.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0577.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: parenting; gender; children’s behavioral changes; pandemic
Online: 9 May 2023 (05:40:29 CEST)
In a previous Argentine study, we found that, in the critical con-text of social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were changes in maternal practices that influenced the relationship with their children. We also found that the impact of mandatory isolation was moderated positively by protective factors such as positive parenting and maternal school support, or negatively by risk factors such as maternal stress. Although this study only analyzed maternal behavior, we were interested in studying the behavior of both parents, comparing the parenting (positive parenting, parental stress, and school support) of the father and mother and the perceived behavioral changes in their children. The sample consisted of 120 Argentinean parents (70 mothers and 50 fathers) aged be-tween 27 and 56 years (M = 38.84; SD = 5.03). Questionnaires were administered on sociodemo-graphic and behavioral data of the children, as well as a brief scale to assess parenting. Mann Whitney U and MANOVA were used to analyze the influence of gender on perceived changes in children's behavior and perceived parenting, respectively. Mothers perceived more significant changes than fathers in their children's behavior. In addition, women reported more parental stress, greater child school sup-port, and greater perceived positive parenting, compared to men. These findings support the hypothesis that parenting developed differently in fathers and mothers which is likely influenced by culture.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0895.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Covid pandemic; Bed Management; system solidness.
Online: 25 April 2023 (07:13:13 CEST)
The last decade was characterized by the reduction of hospital beds throughout Europe. When facing Covid pandemic, this has been an issue of major importance as hospitals were seriously overloaded with an unexpected growth in demand. The dichotomy formed by the scarcity of beds and the need for acute care was handled by the Bed Management (BM) function. This study explores how BM was able to help the solidness of the healthcare system, managing hospital beds at best and recruiting others in different set-tings as intermediate care, in a large Local Health Authority (LHA) in central Italy. Ad-ministrative data show how the provision of appropriate care was achieved recruiting approximately 500 beds belonging to private healthcare facilities affiliated with the re-gional healthcare system and exercising at best the BM function. The ability of the system to absorb the extra demand caused by Covid was made possible using intermediate care beds, which allowed to stretch the logistic boundaries of the hospitals, and by the promptness of Bed Management in converting beds in Covid beds and reconverting them and timely managing internal patient logistic, thus creating space according to the healthcare demand.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0075.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Humanities Keywords: pandemic; social worker; Kerala; policies; education
Online: 3 September 2021 (20:50:56 CEST)
Abstract It is impossible to overstate the importance of social workers as frontline responders to this pandemic. However, it appears that social workers in Kerala are unaware of the many roles they may perform. The study suggests that social work instructors should be more proactive in their course interpretation. The article discusses about the current situation of Novel Corona Virus also called as the COVID-19 that hinder for all human’s life including the education. Rapidly escalating COVID-19, has caused havoc in quality education and every educational institution are closed. As the UNESCO report it showed that 1.6 billion children being affected due to the close of institution across 191 countries. With the alternative method every education institution started blended learning virtual classes in order to continue learning environment in students. The articles investigate COVID-19 impact on student’s quality education in Kerala and social work implication. The findings of the study shows that the COVID-19 has seriously effects on the students learning environment. It showed the huge gap between getting the good education in Kerala. However, Kerala has also made some policies to provide equal quality education to all the children through the ICT and also encourage social work to actively participate on providing education to all the majority of group children in Kerala. Whereas social work applied the micro, messo, and macro level of implication in practice to provide the education for children in remote area of Kerala.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0694.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: H9N2; influenza; aerosol; interspecies; zoonotic; pandemic
Online: 30 July 2021 (10:13:42 CEST)
Influenza A viruses (IAV) are widespread viruses affecting avian and mammalian species worldwide. Outbreaks of IAV in poultry are usually associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, significantly affecting the poultry industry and food security. IAVs from avian species can be transmitted to mammals including humans and, thus, they are of inherent pandemic concern. Most of the efforts to understand the pathogenicity and transmission of avian origin IAVs have been focused on H5 and H7 subtypes due to their highly pathogenic phenotype in poultry. However, IAV of the H9 subtype that circulate endemically in poultry flocks in some regions of the world have also been associated with cases of zoonotic infections. As a result, the World Health Organization includes avian origin H9N2 IAV among the top in the list of IAVs of pandemic concern. In this review, we discuss the interspecies transmission of H9N2 between avian and mammalian species and the molecular factors that are thought relevant for this spillover. Additionally, we discuss factors that have been associated with the ability of these viruses to transmit through the respiratory route in mammalian species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0307.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Government Keywords: Policy; Poverty; Covid-19 Pandemic; Government
Online: 11 June 2021 (09:02:07 CEST)
Poverty is one of the indexes that can see how a country succeeds in development. In Indonesia, the poverty rate is high as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic increases over time. Therefore, a solution is embraced in the form of government policies in tackling poverty in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the poverty caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.What is the current state of poverty caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia? and what are the previous government policies that have succeeded in reducing poverty in Indonesia? The method used in this study is the literature review method based on the results of critical analysis of journal articles that are relevant to the topic of discussion. The results showed that three government policies have succeeded in lowering the poverty level in Indonesia, namely the PKH program policy, the zakat policy as an indicator of poverty reduction, and the Bank Wakaf Mikro policy. Therefore, this study focuses on the policy as a study for government policy in lowering poverty levels due to the Covid-19 Pandemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0725.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: COVID-19, Students' learning habits, Pandemic
Online: 27 April 2021 (14:18:23 CEST)
The novel coronavirus has had the world on halt for a few months now. Changes in lifestyles have become a part and parcel of our daily lives, especially for students. With new teaching practices undertaken, new reforms are being made from students in kindergarten to college. This paper presents insights on the changing learning habits of Indian students due to the hit of novel coronavirus (COVID-19). A total of 648 students from various institutes took part in the survey by responding to the questionnaires on time spent by them both for online and offline studies and others asked in closed format options. The insights are derived by comparing the performance of students based on their institute types, hours spent on self-study as well as the assistance provided by the colleges. The overall confidence in particular subjects by the end of the semester is being determined as the end result.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0565.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: nCOVID-19; pandemic; impacts of Coronavirus
Online: 23 March 2021 (11:31:44 CET)
The Novel Coronavirus Disease (nCOVID) has grabed the whole world recently since its origin in Wuhan city of China. There is very dire consequences the whole world is going through because of nCOVID. The unprecedented nCOVID and associated consequences pushed the public health system in the crisis. Undoubtedly, it has affected almost all countries of the world. Nevertheless, hardly a few country it has spared from its dire consequences in terms social and economical losses. However, it is worth of observing that some of the positive consequences are also results of this pandemic. Consequently, this paper discusses the pros and cons of the pandemic from various perspective such as social and economical impacts on human lives and livelihoods.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0702.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pharmacy Keywords: Coronavirus; Lockdown; Pandemic; Survey; Students; WHO
Online: 29 July 2020 (17:35:57 CEST)
The world is suffering from the Coronavirus pandemic and is undergoing some drastic changes in day to day lives. The survey was conducted to analyze the situation of Pharmacy students in India. What are the types of challenges being faced by them during this lockdown due to the Pandemic COVID-19 and how are they getting adapted to the situations? A cross sectional survey was conducted via snowball sampling technique in which 226 participants submitted their response. The chief issue of concern to students was the change in the study pattern which has made the process much difficult for both the faculties and students. Online examination was also be reported as a point of concern. The normal life that we used to have is not acceptable in today’s scenario, hence, the institutions have to make the students more comfortable and adaptable towards the online studies and make the most out of it.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0179.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; World Health Organisation; Pandemic
Online: 10 May 2020 (17:52:56 CEST)
George Satayana stated that “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. As our UK “good outcome” death toll of 20,000 from coronavirus (SARS CoV -2/ COVID -19) in 2020 has sadly been surpassed; never has a phrase been more pertinent. The last major pandemic on a similar scale to COVID-19 is “Spanish Flu” from 1918. We aim to delineate the timeline of events in response to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and compare this to the timeline of COVID 19 response, given that the NHS and WHO have since both been long established. In the last 102 years many changes have occurred. Health services across the world have significantly improved, with the advent of mechanical ventilation and antimicrobial treatments. Vaccination programmes against common pathogens have prevented many large-scale disease threats, however novel illnesses have also emerged. Worldwide communication through the Internet and many agencies including the World Health Organisation has improved, and the awareness and surveillance of disease is more prominent. Despite advances in healthcare and communication, the national and international timeline for public health intervention in the current COVID pandemic in comparison to the Spanish flu pandemic of more than 100 years ago is virtually identical. The World Health Organisation operates to promote global health and prevent spread of disease, with this in mind; should the WHO have intervened earlier? We need to learn quickly from this pandemic and improve planning for the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0507.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Vision And Graphics Keywords: virus graphs; COVID-19; pandemic; epidemic
Online: 29 April 2020 (12:32:24 CEST)
Graph theory plays significant role in every field of science as well as technology. Every situation can be articulated in terms of suitable graphs by using various approaches of graph theory. Considering the recent pandemic in the world and the precautions taken for prevention of the COVID 19, it is the most appropriate way to exercise the graph models with theoretical as well as practical aspects to control this epidemic. This paper defines the variable set, variable graphs and their types with respect to variable vertex sets and variable edge sets. Depending upon the nature of the pandemic, there are four types of Virus graphs. Virus graph I and III are not so perilous for all living beings. Although, Virus graphs II and IV are extremely hazardous for the harmony of the world. In view of different aspects for expand of pandemic, growth types of virus graphs are divided in 1-1, 1-P and 1-all growth types. The COVID19 initially was in Virus graph-I type, but presently it is in Virus graph-II types. We present the table involving the number of infected people after n days with respect to different values of P and growth rates with I0 = 100. Moreover, the country wise starting dates of stages of the virus graph-I and II are specified. The concept of cut sets is applicable for prevention of COVID19 and the whole world is using the same analogy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0455.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pharmacology And Toxicology Keywords: resistant bacteria; COVID-19 pandemic era; antibiotics
Online: 27 March 2023 (08:59:13 CEST)
Abstract: The overuse of antibiotic prophylaxis during the COVID-19 pandemic would have led to the devel-opment of antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains, thereby increasing the epidemiological burden of antimicrobi-al resistance. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and antibiotic resistance pattern of bacte-ria isolated in 02 referral health facilities in Yaoundé before and during the COVID-19 pandemic era. We conducted a retrospective study over a period of 03 years (from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2021) in the bacteriology units of the Central and General Hospitals of Yaoundé, Cameroon. The review of the services' registers was done to record bacterial isolates (Streptococcus, Staphylococcus, Neisseria meningitidis and Entero-bacteriaceae) as well as their susceptibility to selected, specific and highly potent antibiotics: Cefixime, Azythromycin and Erythromycin. The relationship between each group of resistant bacteria and the antibiotic of interest was determined by simple linear regression; the comparison of the prevalences of before (2019) and during 2 consecutive years of the COVID-19 pandemic onset (2020 and 2021) was done by the Chi2 test of in-dependence. In all, 426 bacterial strains were included. It appeared that the highest number of bacteria iso-lates and lowest rate of bacterial resistance were recorded during the pre-COVID 2019 period in 2019 (160 isolates vs. 58.8% resistance rate). Conversely, lower bacteria stains but greater resistance burden were rec-orded during the pandemic era (2020 and 2021) with the lowest bacteria amount and peak of bacteria re-sistance registered in 2020, the year of COVID-19 onset (120 isolates vs. 70% resistance in 2020 and 146 iso-lates vs.58.9% resistance in 2021). In contrast to almost all others groups of bacteria where the resistance burden was quite constant over years, the Enterobacteriaceae exhibited greater resistance rate during the pandemic period [60%(48/80) in 2019 to 86.9%(60/69) in 2020 and 64.5%(61/95) in 2021)]. Concerning antibiotics, unlike Erythromycin, Azythromycin related resitance increased during the pandemic period and the resistance to Cefixim tends to decrease the year of the pandemic onset (2020) and re-increase one year therafter. A significant association was found between resistant Enterobacteriaceae strains and Cefixime (R= 0.7; P-value= 0.0001) and also, between resistant Staphylococcus strains and Erythromycin (R= 0.8; P-value= 0.0001). It could be that the more frequent use of these antibiotics has increased resistance rate especially in Enterobacteriaceae. Anticromicrobial resistance should be closely monitor during and after COVID pandemic era.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0401.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Obstetrics And Gynaecology Keywords: pregnant women; quarantine; mental health; pandemic; survey
Online: 26 July 2022 (09:54:30 CEST)
The objective of this study was to compare the mental well-being of French women who were and were not pregnant during the first COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. We performed a nationwide online quantitative survey including all women between 18 and 45 years of age during the second and third weeks of global lockdown (March 25–April 07, 2020). The main outcome measures was the mental well-being measured by the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (WEMWBS). This study analysed 275 responses from pregnant women and compared them with those from a propensity score–matched sample of 825 non-pregnant women. The median WEMWBS score was 49.0 and did not differ by pregnancy status. Women living in urban areas reported better well-being, while those with sleep disorders or who spent more than an hour a day watching the news reported poorer well-being. During the first lockdown in France, women had relatively low mental well-being scores, with no significant difference between pregnant and non-pregnant women. More than ever, health-care workers need to find a way to maintain their support for women’s well-being. Minor daily annoyances of pregnancy, such as insomnia, should not be trivialised because they are a potential sign of poor well-being.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0041.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computational Mathematics Keywords: coronavirus; COVID-19; pandemic; compartmental model; Nigeria
Online: 4 July 2022 (08:42:03 CEST)
It is no news that the COVID–19 pandemic has affected many persons in different ways. As the number of reported cases rises across the globe, efforts are geared towards production and administration of effective vaccines for the disease. However, many developing countries are faced with the dilemma of how to slow the spread and flatten the curves of the disease as the available vaccines are not enough. Interestingly, the dynamics of the disease can be analysed to get useful insights to enhance the making of suitable preventive policies that will slow the spread, ultimately flatten the curves of the disease and also help in managing any future occurrence. In this work, the aim is to analyse the dynamics, and estimate the basic reproduction number of the second wave of the pandemic in Nigeria using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) compartmental–based model. The dynamics of the disease is described by a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model takes into consideration the current control policies in place - social distancing, mask usage, personal hygiene and quarantine. Available data provided by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), World Health Organization (WHO) and Wolfram Data Repository were used for the computations. The Quasi–Newton algorithm was implemented in fitting the proposed model to the available data and a sensitivity analysis was presented. Major parameters - effective contact rate, average recovery time, average mortality rate, and overall effectiveness of the control policies - influencing the dynamics of the disease, and the basic reproduction numbers were estimated. The turning points of the disease during the second wave were also obtained. The proposed model gave estimated values for the parameters influencing the spread of the disease. Also, the measure of the overall effectiveness of the current control policies gave insight into how effective the measures are.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0172.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: Migrants; COVID-19 pandemic; Public Health; Islam
Online: 19 April 2022 (03:49:32 CEST)
This study explored the living situations, financial conditions, religious obligations, and social distancing of Muslims during the covid 19 pandemic. In total, 20 Muslim community members living in the Kanto region were recruited, 15 of them were included in the in-depth qualitative and five in the focus group interviews. The Snowball method was used, and the questionnaires were designed into four themes. The audio/video interviews were conducted via Zoom and NAVIO was used to analyse the data thematically. The major Muslim events were cancelled, and the recommended physical distancing was maintained during the prayers at home and in the mosques. The Japanese government's financial support to each person was a beneficial step towards social protection, which was highlighted and praised by every single participant. Regardless of religious obligations, the closer of all major mosques in Tokyo demonstrates to the Japanese community how serious they are about adhering to the public health guidelines during the pandemic. This study highlighted that the pandemic has affected the religious patterns and behaviour of Muslims from inclusive to exclusive in a community and narrated the significance of religious commitments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0231.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: Pandemic; Covid-19; Online learning; Teachers; Kenya
Online: 16 March 2022 (10:13:01 CET)
Majority of published articles have talked about the challenges faced by students in learning online however, little has been talked about what the teachers have gone through especially during these times of the pandemic. This paper discusses the factors university teachers face when teaching online. These factors include accessibility to the internet, level of interaction between teachers and students, costs incurred, availability of training and academic policies kept in place to enhance effectiveness of teaching online. These are further divided into personal, social and economic factors where the teachers’ age, gender, remuneration, availability of resources, location and the economic status of the country is discussed in relation to the effectiveness of online learning. Upon carrying out a literature review on articles written on the effectiveness of online learning with the main focus being teachers, it was noted that the main factors affecting the effectiveness of online learning was the availability of internet connection and training provided to teachers. In Kenya, majority of the rural areas lack access to the internet and devices to learn online which makes it difficult for a teacher to teach effectively given the pandemic constraints. This study sheds light on the need for institutions and governments to take input from their teachers and train them on how to make online learning more effective. It also shows the status of universities in Kenya which had to shift to learning online due to the pandemic. Majority of them took time to adapt to this new change due to the discussed factors. Therefore it is recommended that the Government should train teachers and address the issue of lack of internet and electricity in Kenya.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0510.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: coronavirus pandemic; Online Final Examination; mathematics course
Online: 30 September 2021 (11:21:08 CEST)
The National Examination in Indonesia has been abolished since 2020. Hence, the Indonesian junior high schools makes its final examination items for the 9th-grade, and from the results, the school determines students' graduation. The final examination has an important role and significant value in making decisions about students' graduation. Therefore, this study is aimed to analyze the Online Final Examination items in one of the public junior high schools in Bandung. The sample was 234 students in grade 9 using their mathematics examination tests, comprising 20 multiple-choice items with 4 options, while the data processing used Winsteps software with the Rasch modeling technique. Subsequently, the Rasch model results showed an acceptable person separation statistic of 1.54 and sufficient person reliability at 0.74. The item separation statistics was in a good category at 4.59, while the item reliability at 0.95 was excellent. Although four online final examination items were in the fit category, 16 were good and capable of dividing students according to their abilities. The result also provided very detailed data about the quality of the items and the ability of each grade 9 student. Since each test item is included in the fit category, this study contributes information on preparing and analyzing the Online Final Examination to teachers..
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0504.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: humanitarian logistics; pandemic; economic reactivation; spatial modelling
Online: 21 July 2021 (18:27:42 CEST)
In this article we propose an application of humanitarian logistics theory to build a supportive framework for economic reactivation and pandemic management based on province vulnerability against COVID-19. The main research question is: which factors are related to COVID-19 mortality between Peruvian provinces? We conduct a spatial regression analysis to explore which factors determines the differences in COVID-19 cumulative mortality rates for 189 Peruvian provinces up to December 2020. The most vulnerable provinces are characterized by having low outcomes of long-run poverty and high population density. Low poverty means a high economic activity that leads to more deaths of COVID-19. There is a lack of supply of a set of relief goods defined as Pandemic Response and Recovery Supportive Goods and Services (PRRSGS). These goods must be delivered in order to mitigate the risk associated to COVID-19. A supportive framework for economic reactivation can be built based on regression results and a delivery strategy can be discussed according to the spatial patterns that we found for mortality rates.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0085.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: user studies; pandemic; COVID-19; hygiene concept
Online: 5 July 2021 (09:59:16 CEST)
The SARS coronavirus 2 pandemic affected many areas of public life and industry. This also applies to research particularly that which relies on user test studies. In order to minimize the risk of infection, several aspects of experiment design including the setting might require alteration. In order to develop a step-by-step approach to plan a study with regard to infection protection, an extensive review of the latest research involving the SARS coronavirus 2 pandemic as a blueprint for dealing with other health situations. As a result, a six-step concept was developed that is applicable for user test studies in both stationary rooms and vehicles which can be adapted to the respective circumstances. The infection protection measures determined through research were implemented in the individual sub-steps from study planning to execution. They allow a step-by-step approach to prevent infections in user test studies during a pandemic and in situations where increased hygiene measures are required, in order to continue to carry out user test studies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0134.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: risk; resilience; pandemic; prioritization; risk management; Arctic
Online: 4 June 2021 (10:40:38 CEST)
The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalised yet remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored, Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk – nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic – with a sustainability categorisation of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies which prioritise health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge concerning the genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0130.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Medicine And Pharmacology Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Natural Products; NF-KB
Online: 4 June 2021 (10:00:12 CEST)
Many inflammatory mechanisms are involved in the pathophysiology of COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 inhibits IFN antiviral responses, so we should expect an out-of-control viral replication. “Cytokine storms” occur due to the over-production of pro-inflammatory cytokines after an influx of neutrophils and monocytes/macrophages and may be responsible for the immunopathology of the lung involvement. Several cascades have been reported in the activation process of NF-κB. In this paper, to find new therapeutic options for COVID-19 infection, we reviewed some natural products that could potentially inhibit the NF-κB pathway. We found that sevoflurane, quercetin, resveratrol, curcumin, KIOM-C, bergenin, garcinia kola, shenfu, piperlongumine, wogonin, oroxylin, plantamajoside, naringin, ginseng, kaempferol, allium sativum L, illicium henryi, isoliquiritigenin, lianhua qingwen, magnoflorine, and ma Huang Tang might be effective in inhibiting the NF-KB pathway. These natural products could be helpful in the control of COVID-19 infections. However, larger clinical trials are needed to ascertain the efficacy of these products fully.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0122.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: state defense, millennial, covid-19 pandemic, character
Online: 7 May 2021 (08:57:27 CEST)
Covid-19 has become a non-natural national disaster that affects the national resilience of the Indonesian state. In maintaining national resilience, the implementation of state defense is needed. This research aims to describe the awareness of defending the state of millennials during the current situation of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia by using a quantitative approach with descriptive analysis methods with survey techniques. The results of this study indicate that most millennials are aware of the obligation to defend the state amid the current Covid-19 pandemic, namely by implementing health protocols such as preparing cleaning equipment, conducting social distancing, and working from home. However, there are still millennials who cannot run it for some reason. Based on the results of this study, it concluded that most millennials are aware of the obligation to defend the state during a pandemic by complying with health protocols as a form of state defense character.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0429.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: coronavirus; pandemic; population survey; suicidal behavior; suicide
Online: 19 February 2021 (09:56:01 CET)
The aim of the study was to examine the prevalence of suicide thoughts and -attempts during the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak and examine factors associated with suicide thoughts in the general Norwegian population. A sample of 4527 adults living in Norway were recruited via social media. Data related to suicide thoughts and attempts, mental health variables, pandemic-related concerns and sociodemographic variables were collected. Associations with suicide thoughts were analyzed with logistic regression analysis. In the sample, 3.6 % reported suicide thoughts during the last month, while 0.2 % had attempted to commit suicide during the same period. Lower age (OR: 0.66, p < 0.001), daily alcohol use (OR: 3.29, p < 0.001), being in the risk group for COVID-19 complications (OR: 2.38, p < 0.01), and having economic concerns related to the pandemic (OR: 2.51, p < 0.001) were associated with having suicide thoughts. In addition to known risk factors, the study suggests that aspects specific to COVID-19 may be important for suicidal behaviors during the pandemic.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: coronavirus; statistical analysis; Covid-19; pandemic spreading
Online: 13 January 2021 (12:50:37 CET)
The earlier analytical analysis (part A) of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemics model for a constant ratio k of infection to recovery rates is extended here to the semi-time case which is particularly appropriate for modeling the temporal evolution of later (than the first) pandemic waves when a greater population fraction from the first wave has been infected. In the semi-time case the SIR model does not describe the quantities in the past; instead they only hold for times later than the initial time t=0 of the newly occurring wave. Simple exact and approximative expressions are derived for the final and maximum values of the infected, susceptible and revovered/removed population fractions as well the daily rate and cumulative number of new infections. It is demonstrated that two types of temporal evolution of the daily rate of new infections j(tau) occur depending on the values of k and the initial value of the infected fraction I(0)=eta: in the decay case for k > 1-2 eta the daily rate monotonically decreases at all positive times from its initial maximum value j(0)=eta (1-eta). Alternatively, in the peak case for k<1-2 eta the daily rate attains a maximum at a finite positive time. By comparing the approximated analytical solutions for j(tau) and J(tau) with the exact ones obtained by numerical integration, it is shown that the analytical approximations are accurate within at most only 2.5 percent. It is found that the initial fraction of infected persons sensitively influences the late time dependence of the epidemics, the maximum daily rate and its peak time. Such dependencies do not exist in the earlier investigated all-time case.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0463.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: psychological wellbeing; burnout; health personnel; caregiver; pandemic
Online: 18 December 2020 (11:58:12 CET)
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global health threat and has placed an extraordinary demand for healthcare workers around the world. In this study, we aim to examine the prevalence of burnout, its associating factors, and experience among Malaysian healthcare workers through an embedded mixed-method study design. We found that more than half of Malaysian health care workers in this sample experienced burnout. Direct involvement in COVID-19 screening or treatment, having a medical condition, and less psychological support in the workplace emerged to be the significant factors for personal-, work- and patient-related burnout. Participants described workload, uncertainties from the pandemic, challenged work-family balance and stretched workplace relationships as the sources of burnout. Exhaustion appeared to be the major symptom and many participants utilized problem-focused coping to deal with the adversities experienced during the pandemic. Participants reported physical, occupational, psychological, and social-related negative impacts emanating from burnout. As the pandemic trajectory is yet unknown, the findings provide early insight and guidance for possible interventions.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0203.v4
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; masks; pandemic
Online: 2 November 2020 (10:18:00 CET)
The science around the use of masks by the general public to impede COVID-19 transmission is advancing rapidly. Policymakers need guidance on how masks should be used by the general population to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. In this narrative review, we develop an analytical framework to examine mask usage, considering and synthesizing the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: population impact; transmission characteristics; source control; PPE; sociological considerations; and implementation considerations. A primary route of transmission of COVID-19 is via respiratory droplets, and is known to be transmissible from presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Reducing disease spread requires two things: first, limit contacts of infected individuals via physical distancing and other measures, and second, reduce the transmission probability per contact. The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces the transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected droplets in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at reducing spread of the virus when compliance is high. The decreased transmissibility could substantially reduce the death toll and economic impact while the cost of the intervention is low. Given the current shortages of medical masks we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. Because many respiratory droplets become smaller due to evaporation, we recommend increasing focus on a previously overlooked aspect of mask usage: mask-wearing by infectious people ("source control") with benefits at the population-level, rather than mask-wearing by susceptible people, such as health-care workers, with focus on individual outcomes. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: academic; mothers; COVID-19; pandemic; leaky pipeline
Online: 26 September 2020 (13:08:55 CEST)
The issues mothers face in the academy have been discussed for decades. Routinely, new studies report significant differences between women and men at comparable career stages with respect to salary, service demands, publications, grant submissions, and overall funding rates. The COVID-19 pandemic is further exposing these inequalities as women scientists who are parenting while also engaging in a combination of academic related duties are falling further behind. COVID-19 is shaking the very foundations of our society and laying bare the many inequalities that defined our pre-COVID world. We can solve these inequities by investing strategically in creative solutions, thereby making the most of women’s contributions to scientific endeavors. Here we describe strategies that would make the academy more equitable for working mothers now and into the future. Importantly, while the data are clear that mothers are being disproportionally impacted by COVID-19, many groups could benefit from these same ideas. Now is the time to act. Rather than rebuilding what we once knew, let us be the architects of a new world.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0535.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Global health; Health inequalities
Online: 23 September 2020 (04:13:51 CEST)
The COVID-19 crisis has brought unprecedented strain on healthcare systems around the world. It has perhaps taught us some key lessons that are worth considering and addressing to help build more sustainable health systems as well as improve our ability to combat future epidemics.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; globalization; health systems; pandemic; preparedness
Online: 30 August 2020 (11:38:30 CEST)
The socio-economic benefits of globalization cannot be overemphasized. However, the global spread of infectious diseases has so followed a parallel course. The recent wave of pandemics with emerging new diseases has shown that no part of the world is immune from the spread of infectious diseases. COVID-19 like previous pandemics has exposed inadequacies of our healthcare systems and global capacity for prevention, early detection, and response in pandemic outbreaks. Given the highly interconnected global economy and the high potential for passim spread of infections, every nation must not only come up with concerted efforts to prevent and better prepare for pandemics, international solidarity and engagements will also be critical to ensure a long-lasting and sustainable solution. We are only as strong as our weakest health system, global support to strengthen all health systems around the world is the most effective way to be pandemic – ready. ‘All for one and one for all’.
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Mathematics Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, population, density, hospital, pandemic
Online: 20 August 2020 (13:18:03 CEST)
In this four-month-long study (from April 1, 2020 to August 1, 2020), we have collected, modeled, and analyzed COVID-19 data from the top five most infected counties per top six most infected states in the United States (30 counties total). More specifically, we collected data on each state’s total COVID-19 cases, deaths, tests conducted, and their counties’ population, density, percentage of seniors, number of hospitals, total COVID-19 cases, and total COVID-19 related deaths. In this study, we have models illustrating the growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths per county, growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths per state (which is really the sum of our chosen five counties), and growth of COVID-19 tests conducted per state. In addition, our study also contains models illustrating the statistics of several variables that might have affected a county’s COVID-19 data, which has been mentioned above: population, density, percentage of seniors, and number of hospitals. An interesting finding we have noticed upon modeling the 30 counties’ density and total COVID-19 cases as an xy scatter plot is that there is a considerably strong relationship between the two variables. Los Angeles County (which was an extreme outlier), in particular, supports the idea that a county’s most populous city can greatly affect its entire county’s COVID-19 cases; if the largest city is extremely dense, it appears that the entire county has a greater total COVID-19 case count.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0549.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Corona virus: COVID-19; Saudi Arabia; pandemic
Online: 23 July 2020 (11:32:34 CEST)
Introduction Most cases of COVID-19 coronavirus infection occurred in the Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of December 2019 in the form of acute pneumonia. COVID-19 virus infects people of all ages. The most affected elderly people with underlying medical conditions. This may cause various symptoms such as fever, difficulty breathing, lung infection, coughing and sneezing. Aim The aim of the present study to highlight the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. Method A search was conducted using the relevant keywords to retrieve the studies conducted in Saudi Arabia regarding COVID-19. The search was by Google Scholar, Pub MED, and Twitter. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic carries multiple-risk, and public health groups, such as the United States' Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organisation (WHO), are monitoring the pandemic and posting updates on their website. These groups have also made recommendations on disease prevention and treatment, and according to the Saudi Centres for Disease Control, they have also included the necessary public health measures for mandatory reporting by calling a certain number and through the e-health monitoring network.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0405.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Analysis Keywords: Data Visualization; Information Visualization; COVID 19 Pandemic
Online: 24 May 2020 (20:23:04 CEST)
This paper presents a new interactive visualization system to represent and compare rate of spread of COVID 19 pandemic across different countries over time. We surveyed existing visualization techniques used in various websites and media outlets and introduced use of a knee detection algorithm that divides the exponential spread in multiple linear components. A set of use cases demonstrates the utility of the system in comparing the spread across different countries for both analysis and prediction.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0513.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: COVID-19; social distancing; infectious diseases; pandemic
Online: 29 April 2020 (14:16:47 CEST)
In late February 2020, Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has aggressively spread around many bordering provinces of the three most productive regions of northern Italy (Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia Romagna). The first outbreak exploded in the municipality of Codogno (Lombardy). The province of Ferrara (Emilia Romagna) has been indicated as an anomaly due to the lower number of confirmed cases (1·065 cases per 1000 population). We argue that the spread of the virus throughout Emilia Romagna has a possible explanation in the geographical location of most of its provinces along the Via Emilia, an ancient Roman road that runs throughout the region, which we consider as a proxy for citizens’ movement, number of contacts, and social interactions. In order to test this hypothesis, we used a non-linear multiple regression analysis on aggregate province data to investigate the association between the rates of confirmed cases and the distance from the Via Emilia. The results indicate that the infection rate decreases proportionally to the distance from Via Emilia (-14% every 10 km, p<0·001). Further studies are needed, but Ferrara’s “peculiarity” might have a geographical/behavioral explanation, due to its isolation from the regional main connection routes, which are still revolving around a road built by the ancient Romans 2,000 years ago.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0443.v2
Subject: Social Sciences, Library And Information Sciences Keywords: COVID-19; open science; data; bibliometric; pandemic
Online: 22 April 2020 (06:15:34 CEST)
Introduction: The Pandemic of COVID-19, an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 motivated the scientific community to work together in order to gather, organize, process and distribute data on the novel biomedical hazard. Here, we analyzed how the scientific community responded to this challenge by quantifying distribution and availability patterns of the academic information related to COVID-19. The aim of our study was to assess the quality of the information flow and scientific collaboration, two factors we believe to be critical for finding new solutions for the ongoing pandemic. Materials and methods: The RISmed R package, and a custom Python script were used to fetch metadata on articles indexed in PubMed and published on Rxiv preprint server. Scopus was manually searched and the metadata was exported in BibTex file. Publication rate and publication status, affiliation and author count per article, and submission-to-publication time were analysed in R. Biblioshiny application was used to create a world collaboration map. Results: Our preliminary data suggest that COVID-19 pandemic resulted in generation of a large amount of scientific data, and demonstrates potential problems regarding the information velocity, availability, and scientific collaboration in the early stages of the pandemic. More specifically, our results indicate precarious overload of the standard publication systems, significant problems with data availability and apparent deficient collaboration. Conclusion: In conclusion, we believe the scientific community could have used the data more efficiently in order to create proper foundations for finding new solutions for the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, we believe we can learn from this on the go and adopt open science principles and a more mindful approach to COVID-19-related data to accelerate the discovery of more efficient solutions. We take this opportunity to invite our colleagues to contribute to this global scientific collaboration by publishing their findings with maximal transparency.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0313.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Mathematical And Computational Biology Keywords: covid-19; forecast; epidemic; logistic model; pandemic
Online: 19 April 2020 (02:21:53 CEST)
This note applies the Logistic model approximation to determine the suitable start and end dates for the observed epidemic curves in the total number of cases for different countries. The Logistic model is presented and explicit relations for the beginning and end dates are obtained together with the total epidemic duration. Using data from Brazil, Germany, Italy, and South Korea, the extreme dates are calculated. Since the epidemic onset time is found, a fair comparison of the epidemic curve for these countries is obtained. The result does not depend on the poor statistics available in the early phase of the epidemic when the initial number of infectives is unknown. In fact, the total duration depends only on the characteristic time parameter of the LM model.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0006.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: zinc; antiviral; COVID-19; pandemic; host resistance
Online: 1 April 2020 (09:30:36 CEST)
The novel coronavirus, COVID-19 is now officially declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), and most parts of the world are taking drastic measures to restrict human movements to contain the infection. Like millions of others around the world, I am wondering, is there anything that could be done, other than keeping high personal hygiene, and be vigilant of symptoms, to reduce the chances of infection, or at least to reduce the burden of the disease. So far, the National and International health agencies, including the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the WHO have provided clear guidelines for both preventive and treatment suggestions. In this opinion-based article, I want to discuss, why keeping the adequate micronutrient balance might enhance the host response and be protective of viral infections. A detailed in-depth discussion of various micronutrients is not the purpose of this article, I will mostly emphasize on the role of zinc in viral infection.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0664.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Engineering education; choice characteristics; institutional influence; pandemic influence; suitability under the COVID-19 and COVID-19 pandemic situations
Online: 26 March 2021 (12:25:18 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced Indian engineering institutions (EIs) to bring their previous half-shut shades completely down. Fetching new admissions to EI campuses during the pandemic has become a ‘now or never’ situation for EIs. During crisis situations, institutions have struggled to return to the normal track. The pandemic has drastically changed students’ behavior and family preferences due to mental stress and the emotional life attached to it. Consequently, it becomes a prerequisite, and emergencies need to examine the choice characteristics influencing the selection of EI during the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to critically examine institutional influence and pandemic influence due to COVID-19 that affects students’ choice about an engineering institution (EI) and consequently to explore relationships between institutional and pandemic influence. The findings of this quantitative research, conducted through a self-reported survey, have revealed that institutional and pandemic influence have governed EI choice under the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, pandemic influence is positively affected by institutional influence. The study demonstrated that EIs will have to reposition themselves to normalize pandemic influence by tuning institutional characteristics that regulate situational influence and new enrollments. It can be yardstick for policy makers to attract new enrollments under pandemic situations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0048.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Urban Studies And Planning Keywords: covid 19; urban life; behaviour; change; impact; pandemic
Online: 1 June 2023 (07:26:39 CEST)
During the Covid 19 pandemic, we saw a huge impact on the lives of individuals in cities. The way people responded was controlled and limited. The lockdown restricted a lot of movements in the cities as well as contained the citizens in their houses. Through a semi-structured interview, the research aims to understand the change in behaviour and response of individuals across various cities. The paper aims to understand how people change their day-to-day life in cities during the pandemic and while the restrictions getting released post the first wave. The paper also understands how the pandemic impacted urban spaces and what value they hold for people. By interviewing individuals from different cities, the data were transcribed and analysed to understand this behavioural change and the attitude of people. The outcome of the research was derived as a concept map through the codes generated during the research.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.1085.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Clinical Medicine Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; pandemic; children infection; respiratory failure
Online: 28 April 2023 (03:02:24 CEST)
Background: Children suffering from COVID-19 constitute about 10% of the entire population infected with the virus. In most of them, we observe asymptomatic or mild course; however, about 1% of affected children require a stay in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) due to the severe life-threatening course. The risk of respiratory failure, as in adults, is associated with the coexistence of concomitant diseases. The aim of our study was to analyze patients admitted to PICUs due to severe course of SARS-CoV-19 infection. Methods: A retrospective multi-center study, the analysis covered all children with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection, who were admitted to PICUs, in the period from November 2020 to August 2021. We studied epidemiological and laboratory parameters, and the endpoint – survival or death. Results: The study analyzed 45 patients (0.075% of all children hospitalized in Poland due to COVID-19 at that time). Mortality calculated in the entire study group was 40% (n=18). Statistically significant differences between the compared groups (survived and died) concerned the parameters of the respiratory system, Lung Injury Score and Pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment . A significant correlation between disease severity and the patient's prognosis was shown by the liver function parameter AST (p=0.028). Analyzing patients requiring mechanical ventilation and assuming survival as the primary outcome, a significantly higher oxygen index on the first day of hospitalization, lower pSOFA scores and lower AST levels (p: 0.007; 0.043; 0.020; 0.005; 0.039, respectively) were found. Conclusions: As in adults, children with comorbidities are most frequently at risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Increasing symptoms of respiratory failure, the need for mechanical ventilation and persistently high values of aspartate aminotransferase are indicators of poor prognosis.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0515.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading
Online: 30 March 2023 (02:30:40 CEST)
Monitored infection and vaccination rates during past past Corona waves are used to infer a posteriori two key parameter of the SIRV-epidemic model, namely the real time variation of the (i) ratio of recovery to infection rate and (ii) ratio of vaccination to infection rate. We demonstrate that using the classical SIR model the ratio between recovery and infection rates tends to overestimate the true ratio, that is of relevance in predicting the dynamics of an epidemics in the presence of vaccinations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0154.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Nursing Keywords: Simulation; Nursing competences; Critical patient; Training; Education; Pandemic
Online: 9 February 2023 (04:47:44 CET)
On 11 March 2020, the COVID-19 emergency was declared and a large number of patients were admitted to the ICUs. Consequently, ICUs had to recruit nurses from other units as well as Nursing students without working experience in critical patients care. Since Critical nursing competence is crucial to avoid medical errors, the aim of this study was, to describe the level of safety and nursing competence in critical patient care of recruited nurses and students, during the COVID-19 pandemic in ICUs. A cross-sectional descriptive study of 66 participants using the validated competency assessment questionnaire for nurses in hospital care (COM-VA©) was performed. Our results showed that the level of safety perceived in critical patients care by the students on placement in ICUs and mentors scored higher than the rest of the participants. Interestingly, whereas the participant’s COM-VA© score indicated a level of competence good enough to work autonomously, the supervisor/mentor’s COM-VA© evaluation showed that only the group of students on placement obtained this level of competency. Altogether, we found that students on placement in ICU possesses a higher level of safety and COM-VA© scores than the rest of participants probably due to the close support of the mentor.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0188.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading
Online: 11 January 2023 (02:14:27 CET)
Monitored differential infection rates of past Corona waves are used to infer, a posteriori, the real time variation of the ratio of recovery to infection rate as key parameter of the SIR-epidemic model. From monitored Corona waves in five different countries it is found that this ratio exhibits a linear increase at early times below the first maximum of the differential infection rate before the ratios approach a nearly constant value close to unity at the time of the first maximum with small amplitude oscillations at later times. The observed time dependencies at early times and at times near the first maximum agree favorably well with the behavior of the calculated ratio for the Gaussian temporal evolution of the rate of new infections, although the predicted linear increase of the Gauss ratio at late times is not observed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0016.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: public institutions; transformations; professional training; pandemic; reform; model
Online: 1 July 2022 (15:57:13 CEST)
This article analyzes the perspectives of professional training of the public administration staff, from the viewpoint of the sustainability criteria, starting from the experiences of the online courses run in the last two years. In order to understand the nature, type and magnitude of the changes caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in the field of professional training for public administration, we performed a survey among public institution employees, by applying a questionnaire. The instrument included qualitative elements, to allow the framing of statistical results. The article is grounded on the hypothesis that the professional training activities in the last two years were organized preponderantly online and it aims to analyze the sustainability of the new teaching systems/methods. The limitations of the study are given by the fact that each administrative system has structure particularities and its own legal framework regarding the professional training of public administration staff, what makes that the model proposed cannot be applied in all countries. The study provides a model of online professional training for public administration staff, sustainable, based on the experience accumulated in the last two years.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0137.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: FAIR; epidemiology; models; pandemic forecast; SIR modelling; standards
Online: 9 June 2022 (07:55:55 CEST)
A major challenge for the dissemination, replication, and reuse of epidemiological forecasting studies during COVID-19 pandemics is the lack of clear guidelines and platforms to exchange models in a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) manner, facilitating reproducibility of research outcomes. During the beginning of pandemics, models were developed in diverse tools that were not interoperable, opaque without traceability and semantics, and scattered across various platforms - making them hard to locate, infer and reuse. In this work, we demonstrate that implementing the standards developed by the systems biology community to encode and share COVID-19 epidemiological models can serve as a roadmap to implement models as a tool in medical informatics, in general. As a proof-of-concept, we encoded and shared 24 epidemiological models using the standard format for model exchange in systems biology, annotated them with cross-references to data resources, packed up all associated files in COMBINE archives for easy sharing, and finally, disseminated the models through BioModels repository to significantly enhance their reproducibility and repurposing potential. We recommend the use of systems biology standards to encode and share models of epidemic and pandemic forecasts to improve their findability, accessibility, interoperability, reusability, and reproducibility.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0243.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccines; Adverse Events; Self-reporting; Pandemic
Online: 18 May 2022 (11:06:19 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic has put a lot of pressure on health systems worldwide. Mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has reduced morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite their safety profiles, vaccines like any other medical product can cause adverse events. Yet, in countries with poor epidemiological surveillance and monitoring systems, reporting vaccine-related adverse events is scarce. The objective of this study was to describe self-reported vaccine adverse events after receiving one of the available COVID-19 vaccine schemes in Ecuador. A cross-sectional analysis based on an online self-reporting 32-questionnaire was conducted in Ecuador from April 1st to July 15th, 2021. Participants were invited by social media, radio, and TV to voluntarily participate in our study. A total of 6,654 participants were included in this study. A 38.2% of the participants reported having at least one comorbidity. Patients received AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Sinovac vaccines, and these were distributed 38.4%, 31.1%, and 30.5%, respectively. Pain, inflammation at the injection site (20,01%), and headache (16,91%) were the most reported adverse events. Women addressed ESAVIs (64%), more often than men (36%). After receiving the first dose of any available COVID-19 vaccine, a total of 19,481 self-reported ESAVIs were informed (86.9% were mild, 11.6% moderate and 1.5% severe). In terms of vaccine type and brand, the most reactogenic vaccine was AstraZeneca with 57.8%, followed by Pfizer (24.9%) and Sinovac (17, 3 %). After the second dose, 6,757 self-reported ESAVIs were reported (87.0% mild, 10.9% moderate, and 2.1% severe). AstraZeneca vaccine users reported a higher proportion of ESAVIs (72.2%) in comparison to Pfizer/BioNTech (15.9%) and Sinovac Vaccine (11.9%). Swelling at the injection site, headache, muscle pain, and fatigue were the most common ESAVIs for the first as well as second dose. In conclusion, most ESAVIs were mild. AstraZeneca users were more likely to report adverse events. Participants without a history of COVID-19 infection, as well as those who receive the first dose, were more prone to report ESAVIs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0199.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; stress; coping; older adults; resilience
Online: 10 November 2021 (09:00:20 CET)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing measures were put into place to flatten the pandemic curve. It was projected older adults were at increased risk for poor psychological and health outcomes resulting from increased social isolation and loneliness. However, little re-search has supported this projection among community-dwelling older adults. While growing body of research has examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on older adults, there is a paucity of qualitative research that captures the lived experience of community-dwelling older adults. The current study aimed to better understand the lived experience of community-dwelling older adults during the first six months of the pandemic. Semi-structured one on one interviews were conducting with independent living older adults aged 65 years and older. After achieving saturation, 22 interview were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Following a recursive process, two overarching themes emerged from the data: perceived threat and challenges of the pandemic and coping with the pandemic. Specifically, participants reflected on the threat of contracting the virus and challenges associated with living arrangement, social isolation, and financial insecurity. Participants shared their coping strategies to maintain health and wellbeing, including behavioral strategies, emotion-focused strategies, and social support. Overall, this re-search highlights resilience among older adults during the first six months of the pandemic.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0071.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; receptors; COVID-19; pandemic
Online: 3 August 2021 (11:05:23 CEST)
Several recent surges in COVID-19 cases due to newly emerging variant strains of SARS-CoV-2 with greater transmissibility have highlighted the virus’s capability to directly modulate spike-ACE2 interactions and promote immune evasion by sterically masking the immunogenic epitopes. Recently, there have also been reports of the bidirectional transfer of coronavirus between different animal species and humans. The ability of coronavirus to infect and adapt to a wide range of hosts can be attributed to new variants that modify the molecular recognition profile of the spike protein (S protein). The receptor-binding domain of the spike protein specifically interacts with key host receptor molecules present on the host cell membranes to gain entry into the host and begin the infection cycle. In this review, we discuss the molecular, structural, and functional diversity associated with the coronavirus receptors across their different phylogenetic lineages and its relevance to various symptomatology in the rapid human-to-human infection in COVID-19 patients, tropism, and zoonosis. Despite this seeming diversity of host receptors, there may be some common underlying mechanisms that influence the host range, virus transmissibility, and pathogenicity. Understanding these mechanisms may be crucial in not only controlling the ongoing pandemic but also help in stopping the resurgence of such virus threats in the future.
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: COVID-19; Food Supply Chain; Epidemic; Pandemic, Disruptions
Online: 9 July 2021 (09:37:29 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the food supply chain, including producers, retailers, wholesalers, and customers. To minimize the impacts caused by pandemics and epidemics on food supply chains, it is fundamental to implement effective policies that ensure continuity in the provision, affordability, and distribution of basic food items. This research aims to identify the main impacts of pandemics and epidemics on food supply chains and policies that can minimize these impacts. Based on a systematic literature review (SLR), 174 documents are analysed to propose a taxonomy of impacts on four supply chain links: demand-side, supply-side, logistics and infrastructure, and management and operation. The taxonomy presents the main impacts, as well as the respective mitigation policies simultaneously. In addition, the literature review leads to the development of a comprehensive causal loop diagram (CLD) with the identification of main variables and their relationship with food supply chains. Finally, a specific research agenda is proposed by identifying main research gaps. These findings provide a structured method for evaluating policies that ensure the functioning of food supply chains, particularly in disruptions such epidemics and pandemics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0534.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; pandemic; bibliometric analysis; MERS; SARS
Online: 22 June 2021 (08:33:26 CEST)
India is ranked 5th in world in terms of Covid-19 publications accounting for 6.7% of the total. About 60% of the Covid-19 publications in the year 2020 are from United States, China, UK, Italy, and India. We present a bibliometrics analysis of the publi-cation trends and citation structure along with identification of major research clusters. By performing network analysis of authors, citations, institutions, key-words, and countries, we explore semantic associations by applying visualization techniques. Our study shows lead taken by United States, China, UK, Italy, India in Covid-19 research may be attributed to the high prevalence of Covid-19 cases in those countries witnessing the first outbreak and also due to access to Covid-19 data, access to labs for experimental trials, immediate funding, and overall support from the govt. agencies. Large number of publications and citations from India are due to co-authored publications with countries like United States, UK, China, and Saudi Arabia. Findings show health sciences with highest the number of publications and citations, while physical sciences and social sciences and humanities counts were low. A large proportion of publications fall into the open access category. With India as focus, by comparing three major pandemics SARS, MERS, Covid-19 from biblio-metrics perspective, we observe much broader involvement of authors from multiple countries for Covid-19 studies as compared to SARS and MERS. Finally, by applying bibliometric indicators, we see an increasing number of sustainable develop-ment-related studies from the Covid-19 domain, particularly concerning the topic of good health and well-being. This study allows for a deeper understanding on how the scholarly community from a populous country like India pursued research in the midst of a major pandemic which resulted in closure of scientific institutions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0179.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: fit-for-purpose land administration; climate; resilience; pandemic.
Online: 6 April 2021 (13:34:53 CEST)
The major global pressures of rapid urbanization and urban growth are compounded by climate impacts resulting in increased vulnerability for urban dwellers, with these vulnerabilities exacerbated during COVID-19. Much of this is concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas where urban development spreads into hazard-prone areas. Often this development is dominated by poor quality homes in informal settlements or slums with poor tenure security. Lessons from a current resilience-building project shows that the fit-for-purpose (FFP) approach to land administration can provide a solution to increase the number of households with security of tenure and improve resilience outcomes as informal settlements grow. This paper discusses the influence of FFP land administration on vulnerabilities to multiple shocks related to climate change and COVID-19. This paper proposes ways the growth of human settlements can be better managed through responsible governance of land tenure rights, and effective land-use planning to improve resilience to different shocks and stresses and provide adequate access to safe land and shelter. Land administration systems can support improved resilience to the multiple stressors of climate and pandemics through improving tenure security and enhancing land use planning controls. Climate change adaptation and risk management need to be better mainstreamed into two major elements of land governance: (i) securing and safeguarding of land rights, and (ii) planning and control of land-use.
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: drone; Covid-19; pandemic; disinfection; surface coverage; effectiveness
Online: 30 March 2021 (14:18:15 CEST)
The Covid-19 pandemic caused very serious problems almost to the whole world, so every opportunity must be considered to improve the situation. Decontamination carried out from the air can also be considered for surface clearance of larger areas, so the possibility of this application should also be investigated regarding pandemic. There are many examples of the use of drones for disinfection to improve the epidemic situation, but good practices, as well as factors influencing the effectiveness, have not yet been identified. In the case of using drone for disinfections during a pandemic, based on the reports, we can clearly discover the adapted use of agricultural drones. In this paper, the authors perform calculations with different values of flight speed (10 to 50 km/h), flight altitude (1 to 5 m), and flow rate (1 to 5 l / min) to determine the possible amount of disinfectant fluid per unit area. The results show that by changing the parameters, the amount of disinfectant per unit area can be given within quite wide limits (30 - 0.24 g/m2). Although the results raise many new questions it can help to identify adequate flight parameters depending on different disinfectant liquids.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0641.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; pandemic; autopsy; medico-legal procedures
Online: 25 March 2021 (16:14:21 CET)
Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in post-mortem swabs of subjects who died from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: The presence of the virus was evaluated post-mortem from airways of 27 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients at three different time points (T1 2 hours; T2 12 hours – T3 24 hours) by real-time PCR. Detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was performed by Maglumi 2019-nCoV IgM/IgG chemiluminescence assay. Results: SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA was still detectable in 70,3% of cases within 2 hours after death and in 66,6% of cases up to 24 hours after death. Our data showed an increase of the viral load in 78,6% of positive individuals 24 hours post-mortem (T3) in comparison to that evaluated 2 hours after death (T1). Noteworthy, we detected a positive T3 post-mortem swab (24 hours after death) from 4 subjects who were negative at T1 (2 hours after death). Conclusion: The results of our study may have an important value in the management of deceased subjects not only with a suspected or confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2, but also for unspecified causes and in the absence of clinical documentation or medical assistance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0449.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading
Online: 22 January 2021 (14:00:51 CET)
We start out by deriving simple analytic expressions for all measurable amounts of cases and fatalities during a pandemic evolution exhibiting multiple waves, described by the semi-time SIR model. The approximant shares all relevant features with the exact solution, including time and position of the peak of daily new infections, as well as the asymptotic behaviors at small and large times. We derive exact analytic expressions for the early doubling time, late half decay time, and a half-early peak law, characterizing the dynamical evolution. We show, in particular, how the asymmetry of the first epidemic wave and its exponential tails are affected by the initial conditions; a feature that has no analogue in the all-time SIR model. We apply the approach to available data from different continents. Our analysis reveals that the immunity is very strongly increasing during the 2nd wave, while it was still at a very moderate level of a few percent in several countries at the end of the first wave. The wave-specific SIR parameters describing the infection and recovery rates we find to behave in a similar fashion, while their ratio k was decreasing only by a about 5% for most countries. Still, an apparently moderate change of k can have significant consequences for the relevant numbers like the final amount of infected or deceased population. As we show, the probability for an additional wave is however low in several countries due to the fraction of immune inhabitants at the end of the 2nd wave, irrespective the currently ongoing vaccination efforts. We compare with alternate approaches.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0542.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Health policies; Finance; Systems Thinking
Online: 20 November 2020 (12:15:32 CET)
The Coronavirus pandemic is a major challenge to human wellbeing; it directly affects health, and indirectly involves the economic, politic and social spheres. This, in turn, is going to have major systemic, worldwide health, social and environmental consequences. In this paper, I will briefly sum up the history of the pandemic, the worldwide diffusion, the major different political reactions, as well as health and political countermeasures, and the economic consequences / evaluations for the future. The aim of this paper is to show and address all the different spheres involved and their relationships. Emphasis will be placed on the paradoxical presence of a large amount of data and the big uncertainty for the future. The outcomes will be briefly analyzed on a healthcare, political and socio-economical level. The point of view is systemic with human beings, institutions and the environment seen as a whole. Systemic thinking allows interdisciplinary research to be decisive in understanding the worldwide reaction to the pandemic. The global response to this crisis is of historical significance, and therefore potentially decisive for the multi-layered future of the world.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0633.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; tourism; tourist behavior; tourism sustainability
Online: 26 September 2020 (13:19:47 CEST)
This research aims to understand the vision and the reaction of the population towards tourism and holidays during this period of the COVID-19 pandemic. It investigates also the tourist needs of the Algerian population after the closure of international borders. Methods: The data were collected using mixed quantitative and qualitative methods through a questionnaire applied to 203 people in different regions of Algeria (a North African country) from 1st June to 13 July 2020. Results: The needs of Algerian tourists are characterized by a great need for leisure to relieve psychological stress caused by COVID-19 (M = 25.33) among the study sample (p <0.05). The results also show an average need to rationalize the costs of tourist services (M = 5.26) according to the respondents (p <0.01). This is in addition to the great need (M = 7.75) among respondents (p <0.05) of the awareness that the tourism sector can contribute to the economic recovery in Algeria after the confinement period. About 75.86% of respondents demand the cleanliness of tourist sites, while 69.95% recommend improving safety because of the size of tourist sites in the Algerian territory and also measures related to social distancing. The results show that 53.69% of respondents preferred the month of August to go on vacation, 29.06% chose the month of September, and 17.25% would prefer the months of October, November and December since they expect a reduction in the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the tourism needs of the Algerian population, which has become increasingly aware of the consequences of the pandemic in relation to their health and on the country's economy. These results can help the authorities of the tourism sector to better understand and identify the tourism needs of this population in the current period and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0422.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: telemedicine; COVID-19; telehealth; health service lines; pandemic
Online: 20 August 2020 (04:10:27 CEST)
Background – The profound impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. healthcare industry cannot be overstated. Telemedicine utilization exploded virtually overnight as healthcare systems, hospitals, and clinical practices rushed to implement this delivery model to ensure accessibility and continuity of patient care access across myriad service lines and dimensions. Objective – The purpose of this systematic literature review is to examine the measures that were implemented to accommodate community and individual patient needs not only to afford access to critical services, but to also maintain safety standards for affected parties. Methods – Boolean operators were crafted with the expressed intent of identifying articles within multiple database domains germane to our chosen topic. Results – 52,206 articles were captured from a general search query and subsequently distilled to 44 through group consensus based on pertinence to our basic research question. The four health service lines identified encountered similar, surmountable obstacles in their care delivery models, but adapted accordingly to the respective needs of their patient populations. Conclusion – This review showcased the healthcare industry’s ability to rapidly acclimate and change due to the pervasive spread of COVID-19 throughout the U.S. Although imperfect, unique responses were developed within telemedicine platforms to broadly and effectively mitigate disruptions in care and treatment modalities.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0132.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Materials Science And Technology Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; masks materials; pandemic
Online: 11 June 2020 (11:44:17 CEST)
It is highly likely that the wearing of face masks reduces the rate of respiratory infections (e.g. SARS-CoV-2), to protect both the user and those around them. This paper sets out to review the areas that effect the efficacy of masks, the materials, design, hygiene and fit testing, in order to make recommendations as to how to make mask from resources found in most homes for when commercial models are unavailable. This paper finds that a mask constructed with a filter made from high thread count cotton is likely to provide a reasonable level of protection (~70% filtration) and that if a layers of other materials such as chiffon or silk is added the filtration may be much higher (~90%). There is also some promise in less available materials such as vacuum cleaner bags and air conditioner filters. Examples of fabric and rigid designs are reviewed but most are limited by the fit to the users which is hard to determine in a home setting. It would be extremely helpful if a method was devised for people to test or be tested for the fit of home made masks. In the mean time careful thought should be given to whether the user judges a good fit. Users should also be careful to practice other means of hygiene and distancing.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0027.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; Artificial Intelligence; prevention; testing; treatment
Online: 4 June 2020 (06:30:35 CEST)
Globally, an approximate of 380,000 patients succumbed to death due to the pandemic COVID-19 which also infected more than six million people since December 2019. Not sparing anyone, COVID-19 infections are widely reported among healthcare professionals, sanitation workers and researchers too while global leaders and various governments are providing their best in defending their citizens against this airborne and contact spread virus. In order to contain the virus and protect millions of lives from this deadly coronavirus, there is a need to have a combination of advanced engineering technology and medical facilities. Application of applied science, engineering and technology diffuse almost every aspect of contemporary living. Grasping the fundamentals to determine humanity's most imperative and forthcoming challenges is essential. Artificial Intelligence, the technology that learns, adapts and reciprocates the actions according to the situations, finds optimum position in the fight against corona virus and acts as a powerful tool against this pandemic. In this research article, the authors discusses how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be leveraged to fight the deadly virus. The research paper further discusses the efficient utilization of AI across the globe to help in testing, treating and serving the population in these hard times. This manuscript focuses on the potential impact of the process in which AI can be implemented to prevent, test and treat.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0461.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: COVID-19; Economy; GDP; Global; Impact; Market; Pandemic
Online: 29 May 2020 (12:27:24 CEST)
The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus obstructed the Chinese economy and has expanded to the rest of the world at a rapid pace affecting at least 215 countries, areas and territories. The advancement of the disease and its economic repercussions is profoundly ambiguous, making it challenging for policymakers to formulate suitable microeconomic and macroeconomic policy responses. The scenarios in this paper illustrate how an outbreak could significantly affect the global economy in the short run. It has been estimated that each additional month of crisis would cost from about 2.5-3% of the global GDP and that the GDP growth would take a blow, reaching about 3-6%, depending on the country. Scenarios also suggest that GDP can drop by more than 10% and even exceed 15% in some countries. Via addressing the economic consequence of COVID-19 in different industries and countries, the paper presents assessments of the likely global economic costs of COVID-19 and the GDP growth of different countries. Economies will be negatively affected because of the high number of jobs at risk. Countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. Given that disease and its economic influence are highly unpredictable in numerous aspects, the global economy at the moment is the most critically threatened in history.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0399.v2
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Analysis Keywords: IR; ML; Data Analysis; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Pandemic
Online: 28 May 2020 (03:09:38 CEST)
The world is facing new challenges every day; however, with the spread of the pandemic around the world, this new challenge is different. The pandemic is increasing and concentrating various challenges simultaneously. Although different sectors are facing consequences, the most important sectors, that is, health and economy are the most affected. When the pandemic began, it was not known how long it would last, which complicated health and economic planning. Therefore, it is important for decision makers and the public to know the predictions and expectations of the future of these challenges. In this work, the current situation is analyzed. Then, an expectation model is developed based on the statistics of the pandemic using a growth rate model based on an exponential and logarithmic rate of increase. Based on the available open data about the pandemic spread, the model can successfully predict future expectations, including the duration and maximum number of cases of the pandemic. The model uses the equilibrium point as the day the cases decrease. The model can be used for planning and the development of strategies to overcome these challenges.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0435.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: COVID-19; Bangladesh; SARS-CoV-2; Outbreak; Pandemic
Online: 27 May 2020 (04:23:44 CEST)
This paper is purposed to delineate the current situation around Bangladesh as well as impacts of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) around the country and how the people over here are encountering this threatening pandemic. COVID-19 is an international epidemic that has got rapid wide-spread throughout different countries of the world to date. After its first outbreak in China different continents started to make sense and get aware against COVID-19 though, due to its special strategy of transmission several countries have been quite deteriorated preventing it. All the countries are moving at their best forward to find out any solution so that whole world could get rid of this horrifying situation as soon as possible. The authors here have reported an overview of how the outbreak of COVID-19 had put its commence in Bangladesh and to date how people over here have been tracing the way to tackle this havoc. Also, the changes that have brought around due to the crisis have offered us some fertile lessons that are enunciated here by the authors. To conclude, special considerations are anticipated to be highlighted pertaining COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0257.v2
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: COVID-19; Predictive Analytics; Machine Learning; Prediction; Pandemic
Online: 14 May 2020 (09:03:52 CEST)
Globally, there is massive uptake and explosion of data and challenge is to address issues like scale, pace, velocity, variety, volume and complexity of this big data. Considering the recent epidemic in China, modeling of COVID-19 epidemic for cumulative number of infected cases using data available in early phase was big challenge. Being COVID-19 pandemic during very short time span, it is very important to analyze the trend of these spread and infected cases. This chapter presents medical perspective of COVID-19 towards epidemiological triad and the study of state-of-the-art. The main aim this chapter is to present different predictive analytics techniques available for trend analysis, different models and algorithms and their comparison. Finally, this chapter concludes with the prediction of COVID-19 using Prophet algorithm indicating more faster spread in short term. These predictions will be useful to government and healthcare communities to initiate appropriate measures to control this outbreak in time.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0219.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading
Online: 13 May 2020 (03:40:22 CEST)
The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors such as doubling times and reproduction factors currently in use to judge about lock-downs and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact, and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), and the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors including basic reproduction numbers.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0379.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: coronavirus; statistical analysis; extrapolation; parameter estimation; pandemic spreading
Online: 21 April 2020 (08:14:23 CEST)
The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave allows to draw conclusions on the dark number of infections, the amount of heard immunization, the used maximum capacity of breathing apparati and the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in different countries. In Germany, Switzerland and Sweden the dark numbers are 7.4 +/- 6.1, 11.1 +/- 8.5 and 25 +/- 25, respectively. Our method of estimating dark numbers from modeling both, infection and death rates simultaneously spares these countries the laborious, time-consuming and costly medical testing for antibodies of large portions of the population. In Germany the total number of infected persons, including the dark number of infections by the first wave is estimated to be 1.06 +/- 0.60 million, corresponding to 1.28 +/- 0.72 percent of the German population. We work out direct implications from these predictions for managing the 2nd and further corona waves.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0283.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Covid-19; coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; review; pandemic
Online: 16 April 2020 (15:55:12 CEST)
Coronaviruses are an extensive family of viruses that can cause disease in both animals and humans. The current classification of coronaviruses recognizes 39 species in 27 subgenera that belong to the family Coronaviridae. From those, at least seven coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections in humans. Four of these viruses can cause common cold-like symptoms, while others that infect animals can evolve and become infectious to humans. Three recent examples of this viral jumps include SARS CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS CoV-2 virus. They are responsible for causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and the most recently discovered coronavirus disease during 2019 (COVID-19).COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020. The rapid spread of the disease has taken the scientific and medical community by surprise. Latest figures from 14 April 2020 show more than 2 million people had been infected with the virus, causing more than 120,000 deaths in over 210 countries worldwide. The large amount of information we receive every day concerning this new disease is so abundant and dynamic that medical staff, health authorities, academics and the media are not able to keep up with this new pandemic. In order to offer a clear insight of the extensive literature available, we have conducted a comprehensive literature review of the SARS CoV-2 Virus and the Coronavirus Diseases 2019 (COVID-19).
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0362.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Free and Open Source Hardware; COVID-19; pandemic
Online: 24 March 2020 (14:46:29 CET)
With the current rapid spread of COVID-19, global health systems are increasingly overburdened by the sheer number of people that need diagnosis, isolation and treatment. Shortcomings are evident across the board, from staffing, facilities for rapid and reliable testing to availability of hospital beds and key medical-grade equipment. The scale and breadth of the problem calls for an equally substantive response not only from frontline workers such as medical staff and scientists, but from skilled members of the public who have the time, facilities and knowledge to meaningfully contribute to a consolidated global response. Here, we summarise community-driven approaches based on Free and Open Source scientific and medical Hardware (FOSH) currently being developed and deployed to bolster access to personal protective equipment (PPE), patient treatment and diagnostics.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0085.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: H9N2; avian influenza viruses; zoonotic; pandemic potential; poultry
Online: 11 June 2019 (07:44:44 CEST)
H9N2 avian influenza viruses have become globally widespread in poultry over the last two decades and represent a genuine threat both to the global poultry industry but also humans through their high rates of zoonotic infection and pandemic potential. H9N2 viruses are generally hyperendemic in effected countries and have been found in poultry in many new regions in recent years. In this review we examine the current global spread of H9N2 avian influenza viruses as well as their host range, tropism, transmission routes and the risk posed by these viruses to human health.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0115.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: blockchain; federated learning; pandemic prevention and control; privacy-preserving
Online: 3 May 2023 (08:16:57 CEST)
A pandemic can have a huge impact on normal human life and the economy, taking COVID-19 as an example. While the population flow between countries and regions is the main factor affecting the change of a pandemic, exactly as the airline network. Therefore, realizing the overall control of airports is an effective way to control a pandemic. However, restricted to the differences in prevention and control policies in different areas and privacy issues, the patients’ personal data of the medical center cannot be effectively combined with the passengers’ personal data. This prevents more precise airport control decisions from being made. To the end, this paper designs a novel data sharing framework (i.e., PPChain) based on blockchain and federated learning. The experiment shows that the relationship between the epidemic and aircraft transport can be effectively explored by PPChain, without sharing raw data. This approach does not require centralized trust and improves the security of the shareing process.The scheme can help formulate more scientific and rational prevention and control policies on airports’ control. And it can use aerial data to predict pandemics more accurately.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0338.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: Pedagogical Residency Program; Pedagogical Practice; Pandemic of Covid-19
Online: 19 January 2023 (01:25:53 CET)
This article aims to discuss the activities developed through the Pedagogical Residency Program for literacy of the Pedagogy course at UFF (Universidade Federal Fluminense) at INFES (Northwest Fluminense Institute of Higher Education) located in Santo Antônio de Pádua/Rio de Janeiro/Brazil, which due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, it started to be carried out remotely, in a virtual context, using digital technologies. We will describe the context and activities that were carried out within this new reality.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0018.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; Variant of Concern; BA.4; pandemic
Online: 6 May 2022 (11:55:20 CEST)
The rapid emergence and worldwide detection of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant underscore the importance of robust genomic surveillance systems and prompt information sharing among global public health partners. The Omicron variant has rapidly replaced the delta variant as a dominating SARS-CoV-2 variant because of natural selection, favoring the variant with higher infectivity and more strong vaccine breakthrough ability. Also known as B.1.1.529, Omicron has four sub-variants, BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, and BA.4. Among them, BA.1 is the currently prevailing sub-variant, BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly re-infect patients initially infected by omicron BA.1. BA.3 sub-variants is a combination of mutations of BA.1 and BA.2, especially in the spike protein. Today emerging is the BA.4, herein described and first detected in Italy, harboring a new mutation, specifically a deletion in the ORF 1 ab gene, corresponding to KSF141_del in non-structural protein 1 (nsp1), a critical virulence factor able to suppress host translation. The bioinformatics comparison analysis with the other three sub-variants pointed out that the deletion was not present previously and was never reported until now. Therefore, we can speculate that omicron BA.4; will become a new dominating “variant of concern” and might also break vaccine protection . On the other hand, we show that other proteins are mutated in the BA.4 in particular, seven mutations are recognized in the nucleocapsid (N) protein, the capability of five different types of rapid antigenic tests to recognize it.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0690.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: pandemic; monetary theory; financial sustainability; Wellbeing Economics; Political Economy.
Online: 29 March 2021 (12:43:54 CEST)
This paper analyses the COVID-19 crisis and its management, under the Austrian Economics. The attention is focused in the States’ coercive intervention, to evaluate the positive or negative effects of pandemic, according to the Principles of Political Economy and the theory of capital and economic cycles. The paper examines the specific case of massive intervention by governments and, especially, central banks in monetary and financial markets to deal with the pandemic by seeking to lessen its effects. Also, it is offered a critical analysis on simultaneous government policies involving taxes and an increase in public spending which are presented as the panacea and universal remedy for the evils that afflict the society, instead of promoting the transit to Wellbeing Economics. To conclude the review, there is a proposal of paradigm review, in the way to offer a sustainable model.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0217.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Psychiatry And Mental Health Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; mental health; psychological health; anxiety; suicide
Online: 8 March 2021 (13:32:36 CET)
Since its initial outbreak in late 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the global community. In addition to the negative health consequences of contracting COVID-19, the implementation of strict quarantine and lockdown measures has also disrupted social networks and devastated the global economy. As a result, there is rising concern that the pandemic has taken a toll on the mental health of the general population. To better understand its impact, an increasing number of studies examined the effects of the pandemic on mental health and psychosocial implications of enforced quarantine and lockdown. In this article, we aim to review and summarize the findings from a variety of studies that have explored the psychosociological effects of the pandemic and its impact on the mental well-being of the general population. We will also examine how various demographic groups, such as the elderly and youth, can be more susceptible or resilient to the pandemic’s mental health effects. We hope to provide a broader understanding of the underlying causes of mental health issues triggered by the pandemic and provide recommendations that may be employed to address mental health issues in the population over the long-term.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0119.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; pandemic; medical staff; vaccine
Online: 3 March 2021 (09:36:41 CET)
Introduction: The SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the need for developing rapidly effective and safety vaccines to prevent infection, particularly in those at-risk populations such as medical personnel. The objective of this study was to assess perception of COVID-19 vaccination amongst Colombian physicians featuring two different sceneries of COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: A cross-sectional analytical study was carried out through an online survey, directed at medical staff in several cities in Colombia. The percentage of physicians who have a positive perception to be vaccinated and the associated factors that determine that decision were determined. A binomial regression analysis adjusted for age and sex was carried out, taking as a dependent variable the acceptance of free vaccination with an effectiveness of 60 and 80%. The most significant factors were determined in the non-acceptance of vaccination. Results: Between 77.1% and 90.8% of physicians in Colombia, accept COVID-19 vaccination, according to the scenario evaluated where the effectiveness of the vaccine was 60 or 80%, respectively. Medical specialty, have ever paid for a vaccine, recommend administrating the vaccine to their parents or people over 70 years and dispense the vaccine to their children were the factors to be vaccinated for free with an effectiveness of 60% and 80%. Conclusions: There is a high perception of the intention to vaccinate physicians in Colombia against COVID-19. But it is very similar to that of the general population, according to results reported in other studies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0492.v2
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; misconception; mathematical modeling; infectious disease; Nigeria
Online: 20 January 2021 (14:11:38 CET)
In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, to be a pandemic. Since the declaration, Nigeria economy has been greatly impacted thus resulting in a recession. This paper considers a couple of misconceptions among Nigerian people in the COVID-19 pandemic era thereby causing the spread of the novel virus and hence making the situation difficult for the government to handle. In particular, we discuss the first and second waves of the pandemic as it affects the Nigerian people. The impact of the pandemic on animals and the role of mathematical epidemiologists in combatting the spread is discussed herein. We give some recommendations that could be adopted by the government and the good people of Nigeria to reduce the further spread of the virus.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0321.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: CoViD-19; Mortality; Weekly Cycle; Weekly Mortality Cycle; Pandemic
Online: 17 December 2020 (11:40:15 CET)
Background. The Weekly Mortality Cycle among CoViD-19 patients has been studied.Methods. Mortality data obtained from the 'Worldometer' website were analyzed with a comparison of absolute values, percentages, and p-value. Results. For patients suffering from CoViD-19, the most favorable or the safest days of the week were Sundays and Mondays. Conclusion. The weekly cycle with decreased mortality on Sundays and Mondays is a unique phenomenon observed among victims of CoViD-19. Presumably the decreased mortality on certain days of the week related to the optimized therapeutic protocols used on the "safest days".
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0199.v2
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; children; schools; schools closures; global health
Online: 14 December 2020 (11:54:04 CET)
School closures (SC) were adopted globally as a COVID-19 disease pandemic containment strategy. This extreme measure provoked a disruption of the educational system involving hundreds of million children worldwide. The return of children to school has been variable and is still an unresolved and contentious issue. Importantly the process has not been directly correlated to the severity of the pandemic s impact and has fueled the widening of disparities, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable populations. Available evidence shows SC added little benefit to COVID-19 control whereas the harms related to SC severely affected children and adolescents. This unresolved issue has put children and young people at high risk of social, economic and health-related harm for years to come, triggering severe consequences during their lifespan. In this article we describe the process of SC and the reopening timetable across the globe. We highlight the data regarding the international state of educational systems around the world, putting emphasis on the rights of children to come back to school.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0639.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: COVID 19; response strategies; African continent; pandemic; innovative solutions
Online: 25 November 2020 (12:53:22 CET)
The ongoing crisis of COVID-19 pandemic that swept across the world, poses serious challenges on health delivery systems particularly in developing countries. In Africa however, the crisis rather inspires and sparks creativity and innovation at the national, institutional, organizational, and individual levels. This paper unravels Africa’s response mechanisms to the virus that might have relatively contributed to the low infection rate of the pandemic within the continent. Some criteria are adopted to assess and assemble the most influential government policies and home-grown innovations from various African countries and territories within the continent. It is found that, some of the innovations do not only help in combating the virus, but also have socio-economic benefits as they substantially complement government efforts in easing the burden of the citizenry as they cope with preventive protocols imposed on them. This study will be helpful in identifying the most significant home-based innovations that can be improved and used to reduce health delivery crises within the continent even after COVID-19.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: COVID 19; Health Education; RCSI; teaching and learning; Pandemic
Online: 30 October 2020 (10:13:08 CET)
Background: The Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland - Bahrain (RCSI Bahrain) was closed due to COVID 19. The aim of this paper is to present our experience, in managing teaching and learning, during this pandemic. Methods: Following, ethical approval, several meetings were held with the senior faculty and student representatives to select alternative virtual approaches for teaching, learning and assessment with evidence-based instructional design. Informed consent was obtained from all study participants. All procedures were carried out in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations. In alignment with global scenario, we decided upon early graduation for our students, and expedited the clinical examinations, with special permission from health and education ministries. Two major clinical examinations were redesigned to form a single hybrid clinical examination with two parts. Following all COVID 19 preventive measures, students were taken in groups of seven and simulated patients were substituted for real patients. No more than 40 students were present at any point of time, with no more than 10 examined in one block. 149 out of 152 RCSI students attended the clinical examinations and 524 students from the three RCSI campuses attended the written online examination. A structured survey was conducted to elicit students’ perceptions and participation was entirely voluntary. Results: 82% of students were happier to be joining the workforce early and, 22% expressed concerns. A comparison of student performance in these examinations against the equivalent components from semester one yielded no significant deviation in student performance, illustrating that the quality was consistent. Conclusion: We recommend that the government accredit online or distance learning programmes and explore appropriate methodologies for evaluation of online learning and assessment. Incorporating practical/clinical training, will continue to be a great challenge.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0299.v4
Subject: Social Sciences, Sociology Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; pandemic; science; social science; bibliometric analysis
Online: 12 September 2020 (09:49:40 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan City, Hubei province of China at the end of 2019, has radically transformed the lives of people around the world. Due to its fast spreading, it is currently considered as a worldwide health, social and economic concern. The lack of knowledge on this area has encouraged academic sphere for extensive research, which is reflected in exponentially growing scientific literature in this area. However, current state of COVID-19 research reveals only early development of knowledge, while a comprehensive and in-depth overview remains neglected. Accordingly, the main aim of this paper is to fill the aforementioned gap in the literature and provide an extensive bibliometric analysis of COVID-19 research across science and social science research landscape, using innovative and sophisticated bibliometric approaches (e.g. Venn diagram, Biblioshiny descriptive statistics, VOSviewer co-occurrence network analysis, Jaccard distance cluster analysis, text mining based on logistic regression). The bibliometric analysis is based on the Scopus database including all relevant and latest information on COVID-19 related publications (n=16,866) in the first half of 2020. The empirical results indicate that there is still a lack of publications of COVID-19 and its implications in less-explored (non-health) sciences, especially in social sciences. Accordingly, the findings emphasize an importance of a comprehensive and in-depth approach considering different scientific disciplines in COVID-19 research. The understanding of the evolution of emerging scientific knowledge on COVID-19 is beneficial not only for scientific community but also for evidence-based policymaking in order to prevent and address the COVID-19 pandemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0364.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: coronavirus; urban socio-spatial vulnerability; health inequity; pandemic outbreak
Online: 17 August 2020 (11:42:07 CEST)
The pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 had begun in March of 2020 on a global scale. This outbreak has originated numerous questions for society and many challenges for public managers. The disease is worrying because it has a high propagation velocity, high lethality levels, and there is no cure. Some groups are considered more vulnerable due to pre-existing disease conditions, age-range, and living conditions. In Latin American countries, people live in different conditions than those who live in countries located in the North hemisphere, such as climatic conditions, less favorable socioeconomic conditions, different educational levels, inequality, precarious urban infrastructure, etc. These factors generate even more concern and uncertainty about the pandemic than in developed countries. This study aimed, although preliminarily, to identify areas of great socio-spatial vulnerability and susceptibility of infection of people over 60 years old of COVID-19 in Brasília, Brazil. In this research, publicly available data and information about the population characteristics and social aspects were used, all connected directly to the census sectors. With the support of Geographic Information System (GIS), a matrix was used to cross-check the data and, thereby, achieve the objective of identifying the most vulnerable sectors for people aged over 60 years old. The results point out to more than 400 census sectors classified as Extremely Vulnerable in Brasília and it should be the object of special attention for public managers to do specific health care actions.