The use of logistic regression models in data analysis and machine learning has expanded in recent years and has become the primary preference of researchers in risk assessment studies across a wide range of scientific fields. From the assessment of credit risk in financial institutions to the estimation of risk factors for traffic accidents or the identification of etiological factors for chronic diseases. All logistic models are natural extensions of the simple binary model, and their interpretation is based on it. Using the data of a cross-sectional study on the risk factors of traffic collisions, the two main extended models of logistic techniques, multinomial and ordinal logistic regression, are presented in the article in detail. Emphasis is placed on the use of ordinal regression since the outcome variable of the collision data is defined as ordinal measurement reflecting a latent continuous scale.

There is high prevalence of hypertension and is rapidly increasing around the world, despite the intervention programme implemented, this study aimed at estimating the prevalence rate, test of association between hypertension and risk factors and model hypertension rate. Data used was obtained from the health record of Federal Medical Centre, Keffi from January 2016 – January 2019. Ordinal logistic regression model was used; Model Fitting Information, Goodness-of-Fit, Pseudo R-Square and Test of Parallel Lines are fitted to the data sets to test the accuracy and correctness of the model. The results indicated that the overall prevalence of hypertension rate is high at 36.4%, among the adult population, body mass index and gender are statistically significant, and Age is not significant in the study. Individuals that are overweight are more likely to be hypertensive compare to other weights. At age 40 – 49 years which have the highest rate of 26.5% and the odd ratio is 0.75 compared to others. One year increase in age 30 – 39, the cumulative odd of being hypertensive is 0.91 while other independent variables are held constant. The odd ratio of female being hypertensive is 0.85, therefore the females are more likely to be hypertensive with 54.4% compared to the males at 45.6% . There is no presence of multicolinearity among the variables and Logit models were formulated to calculate probabilities of the various possible outcomes.

During the last years some new variants of Permutation entropy have been introduced and applied to EEG analysis, among them a conditional variant and variants using some additional metric information or being based on entropies different from the Shannon entropy. In some situations it is not completely clear what kind of information the new measures and their algorithmic implementations provide. We discuss the new developments and illustrate them for EEG data.

This paper is devoted to change-point detection using only the ordinal structure of a time series. A statistic based on the conditional entropy of ordinal patterns characterizing the local up and down in a time series is introduced and investigated. The statistic requires only minimal a priori information on given data and shows good performance in numerical experiments.

Being able to forecast events is of great importance in many fields, from brain behavior to earthquakes or stock markets. Because each dynamical system has intrinsic features, different statistical tools have to be used for each system. Here we study the time series of the output intensity of a fiber laser with an ordinal patterns analysis, and we look for temporal correlations in order to statistically forecast the most intense events. We set two thresholds, a low one and a high one, to distinguish between low intensity versus high intensity events. We find that when the time series is performing events below the low threshold it shows some preferred temporal patterns before performing events above a high threshold.

In this paper we address one of the most important topics in the field of Social Networks Analysis: the community detection problem with additional information. That additional information is modeled by a fuzzy measure that represents the possibility of polarization. Particularly, we are interested in dealing with the problem of taking into account the Polarization of nodes in the community detection problem. Adding this type of information to the community detection problem makes it more realistic, as a community is more probably to be defined if the corresponding elements are willing to maintain a peaceful dialogue. The polarization capacity is modeled by a fuzzy measure based on the JDJpol measure of polarization related to two poles. We also present an efficient algorithm for finding groups whose elements are no polarized. Hereafter, we work in a real case. It is a network obtained from Twitter, concerning the political position against the Spanish government taken by several influential users. We analyze how the partitions obtained change when some additional information related to how polarized that society is, is added to the problem.

Throughout the world, disabilities people have worse health prospects, lower education levels, lower economic participation, and higher poverty rate in comparative terms to people without disabilities. For disabilities people achieve better, more long-lasting prospects, we must empower these people and remove barriers that restrict them from participating in the community have access to quality education, to find decent work and have their voices heard. In statistical terms, a very useful alternative that can provide support and monitoring of public policies in this area is proposing to be used continuously. A risk index called risk index disabled person who is to assess which factors are associated to this risk, as well as the intensity and direction of each of these factors, yielding a final score that can be sorted or classified according to the probability of people acquire a certain disability. In the Brazilian case, we propose the use of techniques such as binary and ordinal logistic regression to select the most significant factors using criteria such as AIC, BIC and DIC. Calculate the risk probability for different disabilities (see, hear, move and intellectual) and number of disabilities to the dataset Sample of respondents for Full Questionnaire at IBGE 2010 Census. In this work, by using stereotype ordinal logistic model with ordinal response, it was possible to improve the fit quality, to be compared with binary response logistic model. By using ordinal response merged the disability risk for different severity degree and amount of deficiencies. Mains conclusions were: i)the model required a smaller number of explanatory variables was intellectual or mental and greater number was disabilities; ii) the most sensitive adjust was using stereotype ordinal logistic; iii) different disabilities aren´t homogenous as the different predictor variables, and finally; iv) higher incidence of risks were noted visual disability, living in the northeast, female, age 80, yellow race, instruction level until incomplete fundamental, works production form their own consumption and high number of children.

This article is devoted to methods of processing random processes. Of particular relevance is the task of processing broadband non-stationary random processes. The processing of random processes is usually related to the assessment of their probabilistic characteristics. Very often, a non-stationary broadband random process is represented by a single implementation in a priori uncertainty about the type of distribution function. Such random processes occur in information and measuring communication systems in which information is transmitted at a real time pace (for example, radio telemetry systems of spacecraft). The use of methods of traditional mathematical statistics, for example, maximum likelihood methods to determine probability characteristics, in this case is not possible. The article discusses a method of processing non-stationary broadband random processes based on the use of non-parametric methods of decision theory. An algorithm for dividing the observation interval into stationary intervals using non-parametric Kendall statistics is considered, as well as methods for estimating probabilistic characteristics on the stationary interval using ordinal statistics. The article presents the results of statistical modeling using the Mathcad program.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is known for its high car ownership and usage as well its high GDP per capita. This is combined with low/ or no provision of public transportation (PT) systems, has been resulting in perceptual attitudes of full dependency on private car travel. The level of awareness of the benefits of reducing car use and increasing the travel by more sustainable options, has a great impact on social change and behaviour. The Kingdom is currently progressing towards a new phase of “national transfer” through implementation of strategic and sustainable measures and programs. The city of Riyadh is construction a massive metro-system in Riyadh, that is nearing completion and operation. The public is aware of the national agenda, aware of the newly constructed projects and aware of the needed social change to realize the new vision of the country. This paper aims to assess travel behaviour and attitudes towards public transportation of Saudi travellers’ who are witnessing the new transformation in the Kingdom and who are aware of the new sustainable projects. Depicted from the theory of random utility, a discrete choice model of the intent to use public transportation is calibrated as a function of social and attitudinal factors. An online survey was designed and carried out using social media means; a completed 399 questionnaires have been obtained and studied. The methodology includes examining attitudes and preferences of the participants towards using public transportation options against participants’ socio-economic data. The analysis was carried out using ordinal logistic regression analysis (OLR) which is an efficient technique that is derived from the theory of random utility. The results show a good support for PT; a higher support for public transportation modes, form participants who are young females, lower income groups and the university graduates were reported. The level of support seems higher with the higher level of awareness about the new PT system.

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is deemed the most appropriate instrument for assessing violence risks and management because of its balanced approach between dynamic risk and protective factors. Although several facets of reliability and predictive validity of this tool were strong, its inter-rater reliability, construct validity, and implementation in Asian population were under-investigated. The objective of this research was to examine the inter-rater reliability and construct validity of the START: Thai version within forensic psychiatric inpatients. The participants consisted of 118 forensic psychiatric inpatients hospitalized at Galya Rajanagarindra Institute in Thailand. Trained mental health professionals (i.e., psychiatrists, forensic nurses, clinical psychologists, social workers, and occupational therapists) assessed each participant across twenty domains of the Thai START. The inter-rater reliability was examined using the intraclass correlation coefficient and a confirmatory factor analysis for ordinal data was used to test the construct validity of the scale. The main finding showed a good-to-excellent inter-rater reliability and supported two relational constructs (i.e., strength vs vulnerability subscales) of the Thai START. The Thai START is a promising tool for using in Thai forensic psychiatric setting but some items were not significant in contributing to the scale. This study also provides the guideline for implementing the tool in non-Western forensic psychiatric populations.