The Sars-CoV-2 is the causative agent of the current coronavirus disease pandemic. To effectively fight this pathogen, it is important to understand its evolution and the mechanism of adaptation to the host. A software workflow has been utilized to scan 26,016 Sars-CoV-2 genomes available in GISAID databank to analyse the distribution and frequency of mutations in the corresponding proteomes. A filtering procedure has been applied to remove data inconsistencies and redundancies. The number of observed mutations appears proportional to protein sequence length except for ORF3a, Nucleocapsid and Nsp2 that seem to accept more mutations than expected. The most pervasive mutations of the three proteins have been reported and the most variable and conservative regions mapped onto the respective sequences. The results suggest that these proteins may have a role in the adaptation of virus to new hosts and influence its pathogenicity and replication. These considerations prompt the experimental study and characterization of the three proteins.

The development of universal influenza vaccines, i.e. vaccines that can provide broad protection against seasonal and potentially pandemic influenza viruses, has been a priority for more than 20 years. Several approaches have been proposed that redirect the adaptive immune responses from immunodominant hypervariable regions to low-immunogenic but highly conserved regions of viral proteins. Here we induced broadly reactive anti-hemagglutinin (HA) stalk antibody by sequential immunizations with live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) expressing chimeric HA (cHA). These vaccines contained the HA stalk domain from H1N1pdm09 virus but antigenically unrelated globular head domains from avian influenza viruses H5N1, H8N4 and H9N2. In addition, the source of the viral nucleoprotein (NP) of the LAIV strains was changed from A/Leningrad/17 master donor virus (MDV) to wild-type (WT) H1N1pdm09 virus, in order to induce CD8 T-cell immune responses more relevant to current infections. To avoid any difference in protective effect of the various anti-neuraminidase (NA) antibodies, all LAIVs were engineered to contain the NA gene of Len/17 MDV. Naïve ferrets were immunized with three doses of (i) classical LAIVs containing non-chimeric HA and NP from MDV (LAIVs (NP-MDV)); (ii) cHA-based LAIVs containing NP from MDV (cHA LAIVs (NP-MDV)); and (iii) cHA-based LAIVs containing NP from H1N1pdm09 virus (cHA LAIVs (NP-WT)). A high-dose challenge with H1N1pdm09 virus induced significant pathology in the control, non-immunized ferrets, including high virus titers in respiratory tissues, clinical signs of disease and histopathological changes in nasal turbinates and lung tissues. All three vaccination regimens protected animals from clinical manifestations of disease: immunized ferrets did not lose weight or show clinical symptoms, and their fever was significantly lower than in the control group. Further analysis of virological and pathological data revealed the following hierarchy in the cross-protective efficacy of the vaccines: cHA LAIVs (NP-WT) > cHA LAIVs (NP-MDV) > LAIVs (NP-MDV). This ferret study showed that prototype universal LAIVs that combine the two approaches of inducing anti-HA stalk antibody and more relevant CD8 T-cell immune responses are highly promising candidates for further clinical development.

SARS-CoV-2 was empirically and computationally found to be of a specific but peculiar evolution. Shell disorder models found that the outer shell (M protein) of SARS-CoV-2 to be among the hardest in its CoV family. The hard outer shell (low M percentage of disorder (PID)) is likely to be related to the SARS-CoV-2 resistance to the antimicrobial enzymes in saliva and mucus, and be responsible for the high-level of viral shedding which has been observed clinically. Experimental studies have also shown that SARS-CoV-2 is more resilient in the environment than many other CoVs, including SARS-CoV-1. Another aspect of the shell disorder models predicts that SARS-CoV-1 is more virulent than SARS-CoV-2 because of higher inner shell disorder (N PID) that helps SARS-CoV-1 replicate faster in vital organs despite being of lesser viral loads in the saliva and mucus, unlike SARS-CoV-2. This has been reaffirmed experimentally, where higher levels (50 folds) of infectious particles were detected in the SARS-CoV-1 samples in comparison with those of SARS-CoV-2. The hard outer shell of SARS-CoV-2 has been found to be associated with burrowing animals, particularly pangolins, which are often in contact with buried feces. For these reasons, the M protein is highly conserved among close relatives of SARS-CoV-2. The phylogenetic tree using M, unlike the genome-wide one, shows that pangolin-CoVs are more closely related to SARS-CoV-2 than bat-RaTG13. Previous phylogenetic studies may have been confused by recombinations that are usually poorly handled. According to the shell disorder models based on the N PID, an attenuated COVID-19 strain is likely to have entered humans via pangolins in 2017 or before, which provides the virus enough time to adapt to humans. This could explain why the SARS-CoV-2 S protein is highly adapted to the human ACE-2. The specific but peculiar evolution has a wide range of clinical, immunological, and epidemiological implications.

The relationship between pangolin-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 has been a subject of debate. Further evidence of a special relationship between the two viruses can be found by the fact that all known COVID-19 viruses have abnormally hard outer shell (low M disorder; i.e., low content of intrinsically disordered residues in the membrane (M) protein) that so far was found in CoVs associated with burrowing animals, such as rabbits and pangolins, in which transmission involves virus remaining in buried feces for a long time. While a hard outer shell is necessary for viral survival, a harder inner shell could also help. For this reason, the N disorder range of pangolin-CoVs, not bat-CoVs, more closely matches that of SARS-CoV-2 especially when Omicron is included. The low N disorder (i.e., low content of intrinsically disordered residues in the nucleocapsid (N) protein), first observed in pangolin-CoV-2017 amd later in Omicron, is associated with attenuation according to the Shell-Disorder-Model. Our experimental study revealed that pangolin-CoV-2017 and SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (XBB.1.16 subvariant) show similar attenuations with respect to viral growth and plaque formation. Subtle differences have been observed that are consistent with disorder-centric computational analysis.

A model to predict the relative levels of respiratory and fecal-oral transmission potentials of coronaviruses (CoVs) by measuring the percentage of protein intrinsic disorder (PID) of the M (Membrane) and N (nucleoprotein) proteins in their outer and inner shells, respectively, was built before the MERS-CoV outbreak. Application of this model to the 2003 SARS-CoV indicated that this virus with M_PID = 8.6% and N_PID = 50.2% falls into group B, which consists of CoVs with intermediate levels of both fecal-oral and respiratory transmission potentials. Further validation of the model came with MERS-CoV (M_PID = 9%, N_PID = 44%) and SARS-CoV-2 (M_PID = 5.5%, N_PID = 48%) falling into the groups C and B, respectively. Group C contains CoVs with higher fecal-oral but lower respiratory transmission potentials. Unlike SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 with M_PID = 5.5% has one of the hardest outer shells among CoVs. This shell hardness is believed to be responsible for high viral loads in the mucus and saliva making it more contagious than SARS-CoV. The hard shell is able to resist the anti-microbial enzymes in body fluids. Further searches have found that high rigidity of outer shell is characteristic for the CoVs of burrowing animals, such as rabbits (M_PID = 5.6%) and pangolins (M_PID = 5-6%), which are in contact with the buried feces. A closer inspection of pangolin-CoVs from 2017-19 reveals that these animals provided a unique window of opportunity for the entry of an attenuated SARS-CoV-2 precursor into the human population in 2017 or earlier, with the subsequent slow and silent spread as a mild cold that followed by its mutations into the current more virulent form. Evidence of this lies in the similarity of shell disorder and genetic proximity of the pangolin-CoVs to SARS-CoV-2 (~90%). A 2017 pangolin-CoV strain shows evidence of higher levels of attenuation and higher fecal-oral transmission associated with lower human infectivity via having lower N_PID (44.8%). Our shell disorder analysis also revealed that lower inner shell disorder is associated with the lesser virulence in a variety of viruses.

A model that predicts levels of coronavirus (CoV) respiratory/fecal-oral transmission potentials based on the outer shell hardness has been built using neural network (artificial intelligence, AI) analysis of the percentage of disorder (PID) in the nucleocapsid, N, and membrane, M, proteins of the inner and outer viral shells, respectively. Based mainly on the PID of N, SARS-CoV-2 is categorized as having intermediate levels of both respiratory and fecal oral transmission potential. Related to this, other studies have found strong positive correlations between virulence and inner shell disorder among numerous viruses, including Nipah, Ebola, and Dengue viruses. There is some evidence that this is also true for SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which have N PIDs of 48% and 50%, and are characterized by case-fatality rates of 7.1% and 10.9%, respectively. The link between levels of respiratory transmission and virulence lies in viral load of body fluids and organ respectively. A virus can be infectious via respiratory modes only if the viral loads in saliva and mucus exceed certain minima. Likewise, a person may die, if the viral load is too high especially in viral organs. Inner shell proteins of viruses play important roles in the replication of viruses, and structural disorder enhances these roles by providing greater efficiency in protein-protein/DNA/RNA/lipid binding. This paper outlines a novel strategy in attenuating viruses involving comparison of disorder patterns of inner shells of related viruses to identify residues and regions that could be ideal for mutation. The M protein of SARS-CoV-2 has one of the lowest M PID values (6%) in its family, and therefore this virus has one of the hardest outer shells, which makes it resistant to antimicrobial enzymes in body fluid. While this is likely responsible for its contagiousness, the risks of creating an attenuated virus with a more disordered M are discussed.