The RMA11 water quality model, which has been previously calibrated and validated, was coupled with the RMA10 3D hydrodynamic model to evaluate sanitation scenarios in Buenaventura Bay. The bay receives direct discharge of untreated wastewater from 500,000 people through 695 outlets along the coast. Five different effluent reduction scenarios were proposed and compared based on fecal coliform concentration as an indicator. The areas where values exceed the standard for primary contact were also used to evaluate the scenarios. The model results indicate poor water quality in the bay and how that the situation will become even more severe if immediate action is not taken. The proposed reduction in discharges in stages will have temporarily more severe effects than the current situation, but these will end when the treatment plant becomes operational. However, even with the plant in operation, complete sanitation of the bay cannot be achieved, and further measures must be considered.

In China, the majority of mountainous regions are characterized by complex topography and a delicate, sensitive geological environment. Coupled with a generally underdeveloped infrastruc-ture and numerous unreasonable human engineering activities, these regions are often highly susceptible to geological disasters. Geological hazards can cause significant damage to human lives and property, impeding the development of mountainous areas. Consequently, researching the assessment of geological hazard vulnerability is crucial for disaster prevention, emergency management, and economic development in these regions. This study focuses on Xuanwei City and selects eight factors for evaluation, including elevation, gradient, slope aspect, normalized vegetation index, stratigraphic lithology, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from roads. These factors are chosen based on a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and tem-poral distribution of geological hazards and disaster incubation conditions. Two paired models, the deterministic coefficient model + logistic regression model (CF+LR) and the information quan-tity model + logistic regression model (I+LR), were employed to quantitatively assess the study ar-ea. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using ROC curves and AUC values. The results indicate that: (1) The AUC values for the CF+LR and I+LR coupled models are 0.799 and 0.772, respectively, demonstrating that both models can objectively and reliably assess the vulnerability to geological hazards in the study area; (2) Based on the CF+LR model calculations, the geological hazard susceptibility of Xuanwei City can be categorized into four zones: extremely high suscepti-bility (6.09%), high susceptibility (31.08%), medium susceptibility (32.26%), and low susceptibility (30.57%); (3) The CF+LR model more accurately represents the evaluation results and offers a strong reference value.

Well deliverability optimization is essential for oil and gas production and nodal analysis is a common tool used for selecting suitable production parameters. To accurately calculate upstream and downstream pressures at various production rates at a certain selected node, proper modeling of multiphase flow in wellbores is necessary. However, this process is complex due to the inconsistent velocities of the fluids (i.e., oil, gas, and water) and the interaction between the liquids under high temperature and pressure. Empirical models, such as Hagedorn and Brown (1965), Beggs and Brill (1973), and Mukherjee and Brill (1983 and 1985), and the drift-flux model (Zuber 1965) are commonly used for multiphase flow calculations in wellbores. In this paper, we programmed and evaluated three multiphase flow models (Hagedorn-Brown, Mukherjee-Brill, and drift-flux) using Matlab. The programming includes holdup calculation, pressure gradient calculation, pressure traverse calculation, inflow curve determination, inflow performance relationship (IPR) curve determination, and well deliverability determination. Additionally, we conducted a case study to examine the sensitivity of parameters and compare and analyze the results of pressure traverse, tubing intake curve, and deliverability determination between the drift-flux and Mukherjee-Brill models. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on two of the seven parameters in the drift-flux model, and the effects of production and reservoir parameters on well deliverability were analyzed. The case study results indicated that the Mukherjee-Brill model predicted slightly higher bottomhole pressure compared to the drift-flux model at a fixed oil flow rate, but its well deliverability determination was lower. Furthermore, the drift-flux model showed that the pressure increased with an increase in the distribution coefficient for bubble flow (C0_bubble), while the beta parameter had little impact on the calculated pressure in the studied range. The well deliverability increased when the tubing size and reservoir pressure increased, or the tubing head pressure decreased.

Traditionally, studies on freeze–thaw erosion have used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weight of evaluation factors, however, this method cannot accurately depict the fuzziness and randomness of the problem. To overcome this disadvantage, the present study has proposed an improved AHP method based on the cloud model to evaluate the impact factors in freeze–thaw erosion. To establish an improved evaluation method for freeze–thaw erosion in Tibet, the following six factors were selected: annual temperature range, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, vegetation coverage, and topographic relief. The traditional AHP and the cloud model were combined to determine the weight of the impact factors, and a consistency check was performed. The comprehensive evaluation index model was used to evaluate the intensity of freeze–thaw erosion in Tibet. The results show that freeze–thaw erosion is extensive, stretching over approximately 66.1% of Tibet. The problem is the most serious in Ngari Prefecture and Nagqu. However, mild erosion and moderate erosion, accounting for 37.1% and 25.0%, respectively, of the total freeze–thaw erosion are the most widely distributed. The evaluation results for the freeze–thaw erosion was confirmed to be consistent with the actual situation. In brief, this study provided a new approach to evaluate the conditions of freeze–thaw erosion quantitively in Tibet.

A series of novel isobutylchalcones (A1-A20) were prepared, evaluated for their cytotoxic activity and characterized by FTIR, ¹H NMR, ¹³C NMR, and elemental analysis data. The logic behind the design is to synthesize and compare chalcones containing electron releasing lipophilic isobutyl substituent on aromatic ring A and the B ring with aromatic ring containing a range of electron releasing and electron withdrawing groups as well as heteroaromatic rings for their cytotoxic activity. The compounds were tested against HT-29 (colon cancer), MCF-7 (breast cancer) and DU-145 (prostate cancer) cell lines using methotrexate (IC₅₀ 12 ± 1 (HT-29), 9 ±1 (MCF-7) 5 ± 1 (DU-145)) as reference standard. Compound A6 having 2,4-difluorphenyl moiety was most potent of the series against all the three cell lines and notably A6 was mainly effective against DU-145 cell lines with an IC₅₀ value of 18 µg/mL. The critical structural features required for the activity against all the cell lines were identified through pharmacophore model using PHASE^TM which has recognised a 5 point AHHRR model and is consistent with the cytotoxic activity of the tested compounds.

SLEUTH Model (slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) is an important tool for landuse planning and land policy. To evaluate the performance of SLEUTH model, implementation of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is essential. The main limitation of SA in SLEUTH application is a lack of insight into model input self-modification parameters (SMPs) variation, namely, uncertainty involved in the model transfer metrics and model presumptions, which often misled the decision makers and model users. To address this issue, this study divided the forward process into two stages. Firstly, during the transfer process ①, the contribution scores of five SMPs were drawn, and parameters highly sensitive to model output were given. Apart from that, the recommended initial value for SMPs of 0.11, 0.2, 0.87, 1.13, 15, 1.01, 0.49 were found to be subordinated to such a heterogeneous urban area simulation. Secondly, during the transfer process ②, SMP caused imagery metrics indicated the disparity between parameters with Fixed Reference and with Successive Reference. Reversely, it derives reasonable threshold for the best fit values of five prediction coefficients’ initialization by comparing the real image with the predicted one. The framework of SLEUTH model transfer mechanism not only could distinguish highly sensitive SMPs with higher contribution scores, but also could give parametric analysis for simulation imagery based on metrics. The study was found to be a practical tool for quantization response of model input variables for modelling complex urban systems. So, this insight can help geographic information scientists decide how to find out the inner forward transfer mechanism of SLEUTH model for further make good use of it and improve the model.

Uganda’s agriculture depends mainly on rainwater. As farmers are trying to increase on the food output to match the demands of a fast growing population, they are susceptible to make losses due to fluctuating weather patterns which are being caused by the global climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to explore ways of improving water use efficiency in rainfed agricultural systems to save farmers labour and input costs in situations where the grain harvest would be zero due to crop failure. The water driven FAO AquaCrop model is used as a support tool for making informed decisions during planning and situation analysis. In this study, AquaCrop model was evaluated for prediction of maize growth and yields at MUARIK in Uganda, for rainfed agriculture in three growing seasons. The model efficiency (E) and root mean square value (RMSE) for the maize canopy simulation during the September–December 2015 season was 0.945 and 7.24 respectively. The deviation of the simulated final biomass from measured data ranged from −15.4 to 11.6%, while the deviation of the final yield ranged from −2.8 to 2.0. The results suggest that the model can be used in the prediction of rainfed agricultural outputs, hence helping in guiding on management practices to increase food production.

The main purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive view of the application mathematical models in the designing and implementing SSCM beside to solving problems and making decision. The research questions are: what mathematical models are used for designing and implementing sustainable supply chain management, how to use them, which industries implemented in, what modules of SSCM depth in and finally finding the gaps of researches. The methodology of research is Systematic Literature review through peer review papers which are published in high ranking journals. In this paper, First, we search all papers through scientific data bases like Scopus, science direct, MDPI, Springer, Google Scholar, then, screening papers based on the criteria such as subject of paper, journals impact factor which is published in-should be peer review journal- and relative content of the papers. Finally, we selected 245 papers with three steps screening through 2806 papers that they have enough quality and relative to our research goals for context analysis. Through context analysis, first we categorized the information of the papers and drew the current situation of researches in the framework of our topic. Then, we evaluate and compare the goals of sustainability and current situation and found the gapes, then, offered new suggestions like implementing SSCMs models in pollutant industries like casting industry, Heavy industry, coal Industry and so on. On the other hand, there are gaps in researches in some modules of SSCM such as packaging, designing products, etc.

Strategic researches on green mine construction are of great theoretical and practical significance to the sustainable development of China's mining industry as well as the great-leap-forward development strategies of China. Strategies of green mine construction in China are methods summarized to solve all potential problems from mine production to ecological restoration. At present, strategies of green mine construction in China are not fully evaluated and studied yet. Therefore, on the basis of green mine construction related literatures carried out by researchers in China and abroad, this study took the green mine of Yongcheng City in China as the research object to evaluate the current situation of green mine construction in Yongcheng City and put forward corresponding countermeasures. First of all, driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model was introduced for the construction of evaluation index system; construction principles and selection methods of indexes and the index system based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response were constructed. Secondly, principal component analysis (PCA) was adopted to calculate and evaluate data of green mine of Yongcheng City in recent years, and construction state of green mine in Yongcheng City was analyzed concretely according to the evaluation results. Empirical results showed that, the evaluation system constructed in this study was feasible, which could be applied to evaluate construction of green mine effectively.

The Lower Rio Grande Valley, South Texas is considered one of the more vulnerable coastal areas to flooding related with abrupt climate changes. From 1980-2017, there were 7 flooding events, 57 severe storm events, and 8 tropical cyclone events with losses exceeding $1 billion in the State of Texas, according to NOAA NCEI. Coastal flooding is typically a result of storm surge and heavy rainfall produced by hurricanes and tropical storms. In this study, the two-dimensional hydrodynamic flow circulation model is developed to predict the Lower Rio Grande Valley coastal area inundation due to the hurricane storm surge, especially in the case of Hurricane Beulah, 1967. The tropical cyclone properties and tidal constituents were assigned to the updated watershed geographic information with the bottom bathymetric and roughness data. For model validation, the Hurricane Dolly 2008 storm surge due to Hurricane Beulah at the coast and the storm surge reaches up to approximately 40 kilometers west from the coast through a natural river channel. This model can be used for a reliable engineering tool for the coastal hazard emergency management and disaster mitigation.

The naphtha cracking process results in the production of ethylene, propylene, mixed C4, and pygas, which are all olefins. Distillation columns and cracking furnaces are the primary units of operation. The price of raw materials accounts for 80% of production costs. There is also the pos-sibility of using LPG, a less expensive raw material, in place of some of the naphtha. A change in the raw material will affect the operability of the distillation columns and influence the yield on the cracking side. To determine the best naphtha substitution for LPG without creating a hydraulic problem (Jet Flooding) in distillation columns, analysis utilizing simulation tools must be done. To simulate the substitution of naphtha for other feedstocks, a reliability model is being built by comparing simulation results with data from the actual plant. LPG flow is a free variable that is being used to substitute naphtha. The effects of economically advantageous naphtha substitution for LPG can be assessed with the use of simulation tools without impairing plant operability. Optimum naphtha substitution rate is 21.14% from base case which resulting jet flooding occurred at Propylene Fractionator No 2. By implementing this substitution case, benefit that can be driven $22,772.02/ hour.

This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a high-resolution spatial grid (1 km) with various combinations of physical parameterization packages to simulate a severe event in August 2021 in the southeastern Brazilian coast. After determining the optimal set of physical parameterizations for representing wind patterns during this event, a year-long evaluation was conducted, covering forecast horizons of 24, 48, and 72 hours. The simulation results were compared with observational wind data from four weather stations. The findings highlight variations in the efficacy of different physical parameterization sets, with certain sets encountering challenges in accurately depicting the peak of the severe event. The most favorable results were achieved using a combination of Tiedtke (cumulus), Thompson (microphysics), TKE (boundary layer), Monin-Obukhov (surface layer), Unified-NOAH (land surface), and RRTMG (shortwave and longwave radiation). Over the one-year forecasting period, the WRF model effectively represented the overall wind pattern, including forecasts up to three days in advance (72-hour forecast horizon). Generally, the statistical metrics indicate robust model performance, even for the 72-hour forecast horizon, with correlation coefficients consistently exceeding 0.60 at all analyzed points. While the model proficiently captured wind distribution, it tended to overestimate northeast wind speed and gust intensities. Notably, forecast accuracy decreased as stations approached the ocean, exemplified by the ATPM station.

In the present research, it has been tried to use the applied research bases in the field of business management with marketing orientation. Since there were wide and diverse spectrums in the field of economic activities in Isfahan province and Isfahan city, the model of economic sectors was used to categorize these activities. In this regard, the specific goals of the research in all five sectors of the model of economic sectors, drawing and prioritizing the components (indices) of the 7P marketing mix model in each of these economic sectors by the related individuals and members of subgroups of guilds and non-governmental organizations in Isfahan province, have been formed, specified and determined. Collecting data for processing and answer the question of this research, after designing a questionnaire in accordance with the AHP model standard, by spending a period of 2 months from September 2022 and ended in November 2022 , from the statistical population has been done.

One of the most significant developments in the sports world over the last two decades has been the use of mathematical methods in conjunction with the massive amounts of data now available to analyze performances, identify trends and patterns, and forecast results. Football analytics has advanced significantly in recent years and continues to evolve as it becomes a more recognized and integral part of the game. Football analytics is also used to forecast game outcomes, allowing bettors to make educated guesses. This article describes mathematical concepts related to football analytics that enable a better betting strategies. We explain how the pitch is partitioned into different zones and we define possession sequences. Furthermore, we explain what an expected goals model is and which expected goals model we use in this research. Furthermore, we define two general characteristics of a player evaluation method, each corresponding to one of the equations of the Dawson model. Based on these characteristics, we describe the developments of several general approaches for evaluating players in the context of the Dawson model.

In the present paper, a measure of the influence of irregularities of the underlying surface (for instance, the real terrain profile) on the dynamics of air flow is estimated. It is shown that these irregularities significantly perturbing the pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow; for perturbed pressure, density, velocity and temperature of air flow the closed formulas in the Fourier integral form are obtained. In addition, in the present paper, it is proved that due to these perturbations, at a certain altitude of the atmosphere some surface of the "sturdy wall" form appears, on which the vertical and horizontal components of the air flow velocity become infinitesimal and infinitely large, respectively.

Development of novel anti-cancer peptides requires a rapid screening process which can be accelerated by using appropriate in vitro tumor models. Breast carcinoma tissue is a three dimensional (3D) microenvironment, which contains a hypoxic center surrounded by dense proliferative tissue. Biochemical clues provided by such 3D cell mass cannot be recapitulated in conventional 2D culture systems. In this experiment, we evaluate the efficacy of the sandalwood peptide, cyclosaplin on established in vitro 3D silk breast cancer model using invasive MDA-MB-231 cell line. The anti-proliferative effect of the peptide on 3D silk tumor model is monitored by alamar blue assay, with conventional 2D culture as control. The proliferation rate, glucose consumed, LDH, and MMP-9 activity of Human breast cancer cells are higher in 3D constructs compared to 2D. A higher concentration of drug is required to achieve 50% cell death in 3D culture than 2D cultures. The cyclosaplin treated MDA-MB-231 cells showed significant decrease in MMP-9 activity in 3D constructs. Microscopic analysis revealed the formation of cell clusters evenly distributed in the scaffolds. The drug treated cells were less in number, smaller and showed unusual morphology. Overall, these findings indicate the role of cyclosaplin as a promising anti-cancer therapeutics.

Water conflicts have been a significant issue in Brazil, especially in the Sao Francisco River basin. Subseasonal forecasts, up to a 60-day forecast range, can provide information to support decision-makers in managing water resources in the river basin, especially before drought events. Predictability in the subseasonal forecasts range is a research topic as this range contains mixed dependence on weather and seasonal phenomena. Numerical models may inherit this mixed dependence on their skills. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the Eta Model simulations to reproduce the drought events between the years 2011 and 2016. Two sets of 60-day simulations were produced; one started in September (SO) and the other in January (JF) each year. These months were chosen to evaluate the model skill to reproduce the onset and the middle of the rainy seasons in Central Brazil, where the Upper Sao Francisco River is located. The SO simulations reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation but underestimated the amounts. Precipitation errors exhibit large variability across the subbasins. The JF simulations also reproduced the observed precipitation distribution but overestimated it in the Upper and Lower subbasins. The JF simulations better captured the interannual variability of precipitation. The 60-day simulations were discretized in six 10-day accumulations to assess the intra-monthly variability. They showed that simulations can capture the onset of the rainy season and the small amounts of the rainy months that occurred in these severe drought years.

The digital era offers many opportunities to the wind energy industry and research community. Digitalisation is one of the key drivers for reducing costs and risks over the whole wind energy project life cycle. One of the largest challenges in successfully implementing digitalisation is the lack of data sharing and collaboration between organisations in the sector. In order to overcome this challenge, a new collaboration method called WeDoWind was developed in recent work. The main innovation of this method is the way it creates tangible incentives to motivate and empower different types of people from all over the world to actually share data and knowledge in practice. In this present paper, the challenges related to comparing and evaluating different SCADA data based wind turbine fault detection models are investigated by carrying out a new case study, the "WinJi Gearbox Fault Detection Challenge", based on the WeDoWind Method. Six new solutions were submitted to the challenge, and a comparison and evaluation of the results show that, in general, some of the approaches (Particle Swarm Optimisation algorithm for constructing health indicators, performance monitoring using Deep Neural Networks, Combined Ward Hierarchical Clustering and Novelty Detection with Local Outlier Factor and Time-to-failure prediction using Random Forest Regression) appear to have a high potential to reach the goals of the Challenge. However, there are a number of concrete things that would have to have been done by the Challenge providers and the Challenge moderators in order to ensure success. This includes enabling access to more details of the different failure types, access to multiple data sets from more wind turbines experiencing gearbox failure, provision of a model or rule relating fault detection times or a remaining useful lifetime to the estimated costs for repairs, replacements and inspections, provision of a clear strategy for training and test periods in advance, as well as provision of a pre-defined template or requirements for the results. These learning outcomes are used directly to define a set of best practice data sharing guidelines for wind turbine fault detection model evaluation. They can be used by the sector in order to improve model evaluation and data sharing in the future.

This study used the ECOSSE model (v. 5.0.1) to simulate soil respiration (Rs) flux-es estimated from ecosystem respiration (Reco) for eight European permanent grassland (PG) sites with varying grass species, soils, and management. The main aim was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model in estimating Rs from grasslands, and to gain a better understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle and how Rs is affect-ed by natural and anthropogenic drivers. Results revealed that the current version of the ECOSSE model may not be reliable for estimating daily Rs fluxes, particularly in dry sites. However, it could still be a valuable tool for predicting cumulative Rs from PG. Additionally, the model demonstrated accurate simulation of Rs in response to grass cutting and slurry application practices. The sensitivity analyses and attribution tests revealed that increased soil organic carbon (SOC), soil pH, temperature, reduced precipitation, and lower water table (WT) depth could lead to increased Rs from soils. The variability of Rs fluxes across sites and years was attributed to climate, weather, soil properties, and management practices. The study suggests the need for additional development and application of the ECOSSE model, specifically in dry and low input sites, to evaluate the impacts of various land management interventions on carbon sequestration and emissions in PG.

By using various skill scores and spatial characteristics of spatial verification methods and tradi-tional techniques of the model evaluation tool (MET, V10.0.0), the gridded precipitation obser-vation CMPAV (V2.0) and three datasets that derived from local (LOC), Shanghai (SHA), and Grapes (GRA) model respectively are conducted to assess the 3 lead day rainfall forecast with 0.5-day intervals during summer of 2020 over central east China. Results have shown that LOC generally outperforms the other two for most skill scores but usually with relatively larger un-certainties than SHA, and it has the least displacement errors for moderate rainfall among the three datasets. However, the rainfall of GRA has been heavily underestimated and accompanied with large displacement error. Both LOC and SHA have shown almost equitable abilities in forecasting convection and rainstorms of the large area but with a slightly over-forecast of local convection, while LOC likely over-forecasts the local rainstorms. In addition, SHA slightly favors over-forecast on a broad scale range and a broad threshold range, and LOC slightly misses the rainfall exceeding 100 mm. Generally, for a broadly comparative evaluation on rainfall, the popular dichotomous methods should be recommended under considering reasonable classifi-cation of thresholds if the accuracy is highly demanded. And most spatial methods should be suggested to conduct with proper pre-handling of non-rainfall event cases. Especially, the veri-fications including spatial characteristic difference information could be recommended in a computationally sufficient environment.

Spatial pattern-oriented evaluations of distributed hydrological models have contributed towards an improved realism of hydrological simulations. This advancement was supported by the broad range of readily available satellite-based datasets of key hydrological variables, such as evapotranspiration (ET). At larger scale, spatial patterns of ET are often characterized by an underlying climate gradient, and with this study, we argue that gradient dominated patterns may hamper the potential of spatial pattern-oriented evaluation frameworks. We hypothesize that the climate control of spatial patterns of ET overshadows the effect model parameters have on the simulated variability. To solve this limitation, we propose a climate normalization strategy. This is demonstrated for the Senegal River basin as modeling case study, where the dominant north-south precipitation gradient is the main driver of the observed hydrological variability. Two multi-objective calibration experiments investigate the effect of climate normalization. Both calibrations utilize observed discharge (Q) in combination with remote sensing ET data, where one is based on the original ET pattern and the other utilizes the normalized ET pattern. We identify parameter sets that balance the tradeoffs between the two independent observations and find that the calibration using the normalized ET pattern does not compromise the spatial patern performance of the original pattern. However, vice versa, this is not necessarily the case, since the calibration using the original ET pattern showed a poorer performance for the normalized pattern. Both calibrations reached comparable performance of Q. With this study, we identified a general shortcoming of spatial pattern-oriented model evaluations using ET in basins dominated by a climate gradient, but we argue that this also applies to other variables such as, soil moisture or land surface temperature.

Ziyuan-3 (ZY-3) satellite is the first civilian stereo mapping satellite in China and was designed to achieve the 1: 50000 scale mapping for land and ocean. Rigorous sensor model (RSM) is required to build the relationship between the three-dimensional (3D) object space and two-dimensional (2D) image space of ZY-3 satellite imagery. However, each satellite sensor has its own imaging system with different physical sensor models, which increase the difficulty of geometric integration of multi-source images with different sensor models. Therefore, it is critical to generate generic model， especially rational polynomial coefficients (RPCs) of optical imagery. Recently, relatively a few researches have been conducted on RPCs generation to ZY-3 satellite. This paper proposes an approach to evaluate the performance of RPCs generation from RSM of ZY-3 imagery. Three scenarios experiments with different terrain features (such as ocean, city and grassland) are designed and conducted to comprehensively evaluate the replacement accuracies of this approach and analyze the RPCs fitting error. All the experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieved the encouraging accuracy of better than 1.946E-04 pixel in both x-axis direction and y-axis direction, and it indicates that the RPCs is suitable for ZY-3 imagery and can be used as a replacement for the RSM of ZY-3 imagery.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology offers a national operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecast service covering regions of high environmental, economic and social significance. This semi-automated service generates streamflow forecasts every morning and is seamlessly integrated into the Bureau's Hydrologic Forecasting System (HyFS). Ensemble rainfall forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poor Man's Ensemble (PME), available in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) suite, are used to generate these streamflow forecasts. The NWP rainfall undergoes pre-processing using the Catchment Hydrologic Pre-Processer (CHyPP) before being fed into the GR4H rainfall-runoff model, which is embedded in the Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) hydrological modelling package. The simulated streamflow is then post-processed using the Error Representation and Reduction In Stages (ERRIS). We evaluated the performance of the operational rainfall and streamflow forecasts for 96 catchments using four years of operational data between January 2020 and December 2023. Performance evaluation metrics included CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS, and PIT-Alpha for ensemble forecasts and NSE, PCC, MAE, KGE, PBias and RMSE and three categorical metrics CSI, FAR and POD for deterministic forecasts. The skill scores CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS and PIT-Alpha, gradually decreased for both rainfall and streamflow as the forecast horizon increased from Day 1 to Day 7. A similar pattern emerged for NSE, KGE, PCC, MAE and RMSE as well as the categorical metrics. Forecast performance also progressively decreased with the higher streamflow regime. Most catchments showed positive performance skills, meaning the ensemble forecast outperformed climatology. Both streamflow and rainfall forecast skills varied spatially across the country – and were generally better in the high runoff generating catchments, and poorer in the drier catchments situated in the western part of the Great Dividing Range, South Australia and mid-west of Western Australia. We did not find any association between model forecast skill and the catchment area. Our findings demonstrate that the 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service is robust and draws great confidence from agencies that use these forecasts to support decisions around water resources management.

Background: Functional Movement Screening (FMS) allows for rapid assessment of an individual’s physical activity level and timely detection of sports injury risk. However, traditional functional movement screening often requires on-site assessment by experts, which is time-consuming and prone to subjective bias. Therefore, the study of automated functional movement screening has become increasingly important. Methods: In this study, we propose an automated assessment method for FMS based on the improved Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). First, the oversampling of minority samples is conducted, the movement features are manually extracted from the FMS dataset collected with two Azure Kinect depth sensors, then we train the Gaussian mixture model with different scores (1 point, 2 points, 3 points) of feature data separately, finally, we conducted FMS assessment by the Maximum Likelihood estimation. Results: The improved GMM has a higher scoring accuracy (Improved GMM:0.8) compared to other models (Traditional GMM=0.38, Adaboost.M1=0.7, Naïve-Bayes=0.75), and the scoring results of improved GMM have a high level of agreement with the expert scoring (kappa=0.67). Conclusions: The results show that the proposed method based on the improved Gaussian mixture model can effectively perform the FMS assessment task and it is potentially feasible to use depth cameras for FMS assessment.

With the focus of great concern of the sustainable development, its evaluation system has become an important operational strategy and practical values. For the purpose of obtaining the stronger indicators and the larger contribution ones, evaluation indicators screening is carried out using interval estimation model, which takes location of production and service facilities of company A as an example. And the weight value of each indicator is further explored, which can provide an direction of decision-making. The result shows that this screening method provides a more scientific evaluation method for enterprise location, decision-making basis for sustainable development of enterprises, and a solid foundation for the construction of the post-evaluation system. The present work implies that this screening method is affected, to different degrees, by the ability, knowledge reserve of the evaluators, which should be more systematic and standardized, and the concept of sustainable development should be strengthened.

Staphylococcus aureus(S. aureus) is associated with mastitis in dairy cows, this study investigates the therapeutic effect of maggot antimicrobial peptides on S. aureus induced mastitis in mice. The maggot AMP was isolated and purified, tested for antimicrobial activity, and used to treat a pathological model of rat mastitis. The concentration of 1.5mg/（Kg. BW）AMP was selected as intramammary treatment in S. aureus-induced mastitis in mice. The mice were divided into four groups of 30 mice each: group I (healthy control), group II (disease control), group III (AMP), and group IV (ciprofloxacin). To evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of maggot AMP in mastitis induced by S. aureus based on clinical presentation, mammary gland structure, bacterial load, histopathology, and cure. During the 7-day treatment period, all the mice in Group II died in the afternoon of the fifth day, and the clinical signs of the mice in Group III began to improve on the third day, as evidenced by the gradual recovery of the mice's mental status, dietary intake, and water intake. During the treatment period, the bacterial load count of Group III was significantly lower than that of Group II but higher than that of Group IV, while the bacterial load count of Group III gradually decreased and approached that of Group IV from the fifth to the seventh day. The levels of TNF-α in groups III and IV were significantly lower than those in group II, suggesting that maggot AMP has a certain inhibitory effect on TNF-α. Treatment with AMP@ 1.5 mg/(Kg. BW) showed restoration of clinical signs, reduced bacterial load, and lower TNF-α levels in mice, leading to significant improvement in histopathological changes as compared to disease controls. The final cure rate was 40% for mice in Group III compared to 70% for mice in Group IV, compared to all mice in Group II that died. From this study, it can be concluded that maggot AMP can be used as a potential alternative treatment option to antibiotics for the treatment of bovine mastitis.

Compressed carbon dioxide energy storage (CCES) offers several benefits over other existing energy storage systems, including ease of liquefaction, high energy storage density, and environmental friendliness. As a result, the research progress, economic and technological feasibility, and system operation of the CCES system are all discussed in depth in this study. The system evaluation method is summarized and the compressed carbon dioxide storage is analyzed, and the performance optimization direction of the compressed carbon dioxide energy storage technology is discussed. When the overall performance of a transcritical CCES system, a supercritical CCES system and a liquid CCES system are compared, it is discovered that the supercritical CCES system has better thermodynamic characteristics and a simpler system configuration, making it suitable for large-scale development and use. The goal of the CCES system's future development is to create a design with an optimum compression and expansion ratio, a more precise analysis and system model, and multi-field coupling. This review's discussion serves as a guide for the best design and use of the CCES system.

In the present work, we evaluate the prediction capability of six Pedotransfer functions (PTFs), reported in the literature, for the saturated hydraulic conductivity estimations (Ks). We used a database with 900 measured samples obtained from the Irrigation District 023, in San Juan del Rio, Queretaro, Mexico. Additionally, six new PTFs were construct for Ks from clay percentage, bulk density and saturation water content data. The results show, for the evaluated models, that one model present an overestimation for Ks>0.5 cm h-1 values, three models have a underestimation for Ks>1.0 cm h-1 and two models have a good correlation (R2>0.98) but are necessary more than three parameters. Nevertheless, the last two models requires from three to four parameters in order to get the optimization. By other hand, the models proposed in this work have a similar correlation with a less number of parameters: the fit is seen to be much better than using the existing ones, achieving a correlation of R2 = 0.9822 with only one variable and a R2 = 0.9901 when we use two.

This paper presents a concise exploration of several analytical methods for extracting the parameters of the single-diode model (SDM) of a photovoltaic (PV) module under standard test conditions (STC). The paper investigates six methods and presents the detailed mathematical analysis leading to the development of each method. To evaluate the performance of these methods, MATLAB-based software has been developed and deployed to synthesize the results of each method when used to extract the SDM parameters of various PV test modules of different PV technologies. Similar software has also been developed to extract the same parameters using well-established numerical and iterative techniques. A comparison is subsequently made between the synthesized results and those obtained using numerical and iterative methods. The comparison indicates that in spite of the fact that analytical methods may involve fair amount of approximations, their accuracy can be comparable to that of their numerical and iterative counterparts, with the added advantage of significant reduction in computational complexity, and without the initialization and convergence difficulties, which are normally associated with numerical methods.

Accurate monthly runoff estimation is fundamental in water resources management, planning, and development, resulting in preventing and reducing water-related problems, such as flooding and drought. This article evaluates the performance of the monthly hydrological rainfall-runoff model, GR2M model, in Thailand's southern basins. The GR2M model requires only two parameters, and no prior research has been reported on its application in this region. The 37 runoff stations, which are distributively located in three sub-watersheds of Thailand's southern region, namely; Thale Sap Songkhla, Peninsular-East Coast, and Peninsular-West Coast, were selected as study cases. The available monthly hydrological data of runoff, rainfall, air temperature from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) were collected and analyzed. Thornthwaite method was utilized for the determination of evapotranspiration. The model's performance was conducted using three statistical indices: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), and Overall Index (OPI). The model's calibration results for 37 runoff stations gave the average of NSE, r, and OPI of 0.637, 0.825, and 0.757, and those values for verification of 0.465, 0.750, and 0.639, respectively. It indicated a model's acceptable performance and could apply the GR2M model for determining monthly runoff variation in this region. The spatial distribution of X1 and X2 values was conducted by using IDW method. It was susceptible to the X1 value and X2 value of approximately more than 0.90 gave the higher model's performance.

Tight gas, a category of Deep Green Energy Resources, rely on advanced intelligent monitoring methods for their extraction. Conventional logging for reservoir evaluation relies on logging data and the manual setting of evaluation criteria to classify reservoirs. However, the complexity and heterogeneity of tight reservoirs pose challenges in accurately identifying target layers by using traditional well-logging techniques. Machine learning may hold the key to solving this problem, as it enables computers to learn without being explicitly programmed and manually added rules. Therefore, it is possible to make reservoir evaluation via using machine learning methods. In this paper, the reservoir quality index (RQI) and porous geometric parameters obtained from the optimized inversion of the spherical-tubular model are adopted to evaluate the reservoir. Then, three different machine learning approaches, the random forest (RF) algorithm, support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithm, are utilized for reservoir classification. The selected dataset covers more than 7,000 samples from five wells. The data from four wells are arranged as the training dataset, and the data of the remaining one well is designed as the testing dataset to calculate the prediction accuracies of different machine learning algorithms. Among them, accuracies of RF, SVM, and XGB are all higher than 90%, and XGB owns the highest result by reaching 97%. Machine learning based approaches can greatly assist reservoir prediction by implementing the well-logging data. The research highlights the application of reservoir classification with a higher prediction accuracy by combining machine learning algorithms with NMR logging based pore structure characterization, which can provide a guideline for sweet spot identification within the tight formation. This not only optimizes resource extraction but also aligns with the global shift towards clean and renewable energy sources, promoting sustainability and reducing the carbon footprint associated with conventional energy production. In summary, the fusion of machine learning and NMR logging based reservoir evaluation plays a crucial role in advancing both energy efficiency and the transition to cleaner energy sources.

The poor success rate of preclinical drugs which target the nervous system is related to the highly complex nature of brain physiology and pathophysiology. For in vitro drug screening in this field, the two-dimensional (2D) approach - where cells are incubated in a monolayer - is not physiologically relevant. In contrast, in vivo rodent models are very low throughput and expensive. As such, improved, well-characterised three dimensional (3D) in vitro models should be employed to bridge the gap between 2D in vitro primary screening and rodent models by incorporating aspects of the in vivo brain environment. These key features include the extracellular matrix (ECM) and a multidimensional relationship of supporting cells. In this study, a neural progenitor cell line was differentiated into the main types of cells found in brain, including neurons and astrocytes. This model was designed in a 3D extracellular matrix replacement in a minimalised manner. Different culture formats using multi-well plates were explored and a high-throughput cellular imaging platform was applied. Next, we applied this model to assess neural toxicity of a newly synthesised dual-specificity tyrosine-regulated kinase 1 (DYRK1) inhibitor derived from natural compounds, which is structurally related to a natural DYRK1A inhibitor harmine, K04179. Chemical studies have already shown that K04179 has higher specificity to DYRK1A compared with previously reported DYRK1 inhibitors, such as INDY. We have produced the first report of the biological effects of this new compound on the new 3D minimalised mid-brain model with quantification of both neuronal and astrocyte populations in tandem, revealing differential toxic effects of DYRK1 inhibitor compounds K04179 and INDY on neurons and glia.

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and nonlinear interactions related to society, economy, water resources and the water environment. A full understanding of its internal mechanism is conducive to the further improvement of the regional WRCC. This article focuses on the temporal and spatial variability of WRCC to explore a method of dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR)framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, The Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process-entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision of the water resources shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which makes the province's water resources carrying capacity have a tendency to become better gradually. At the same time, the system dynamics model (SD) of water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of the model structure was established. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water-saving, cross-regional water transfer and coordinated development, each scenario divided into high and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes, then total 6 schemes between 2023 and 2030 were simulated and predicted respectively. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of economy and population, the efficient water conservation and inter-basin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high-speed) is the best choice for sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are regarded as a promising alternative to traditional antibiotics in the face of ever-increasing resistance. Our research has focused on crotalicidin (Ctn), an AMP from a snake venom, and a fragment thereof, Ctn[15-34], with improved in vitro antimicrobial and anticancer activities and remarkable serum stability. As the retroenantio versions of both AMPs maintained favorable profiles, in this work we evaluate the in vivo efficacy of both the na-tive-sequence AMPs and their retroenantio counterparts in a murine infection model with Aci-netobacter baumannii. A significant reduction in bacterial levels is found in the mice treated with Ctn[15-34]. However, contrary to expectations, the retroenantio analogues either exhibit toxicity or lack efficacy when administered to mice.

An Oscillating Water Column device, specifically a Savonius turbine, underwent comprehensive testing within an air duct to evaluate its performance under varying rotational speeds, flow directions, and the presence of power augmenters positioned both in front of and behind the device. The experimental setup involved the utilization of load cells and pressure transducers, with their data utilized to calculate pressure differentials across the turbine and torque. Subsequently, a predictive model based on decision trees was developed using Machine Learning. This model was then used to analyze the influence of various features on predicting the pressure difference, considered as the output. The results of the validation (10-fold cross-validation) and test phases were thoroughly investigated. Moreover, obtaining a predictive model allows for the exploration of different scenarios without relying solely on physical experimentation, thereby broadening the scope for further testing.

This paper describes the load capacity of short fiber-reinforced polymer lugs with Ti-6Al-4V selective laser-melted bushings with the original embedded element surface roughness and after sandblasting and vibratory finishing. Lugs are an important part of pin-joints. Adhesion between PA6 and SLM produced titanium is not fully studied. The cohesive zone material Mode II model parameters were calibrated experimentally by extruding a cylindrical bushing along the lug axis. The values of the maximum equivalent tangential contact stress were fitted for cases with investigated embed element roughness. The critical fracture energy for tangential slip was also estimated. Validation of the constructed CZM Mode II models with the results of strength experiments was performed. In both the experiment and the calculation, greater bushing roughness provides greater lug load-bearing capacity. The presented models can be used for the preliminary evaluation of SFRP PA6 parts with titanium embedded elements bearing capacity.

Patients who survived critical COVID-19 frequently reported post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) such as psychosomatic and neurocognitive health problems. The goal of this study was to identify clinical risk factors and other predictors for such long-term consequences in severely ill COVID-19 patients. Adult COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) survivors from August 2020 to May 2021 were enrolled. A broad range of clinical, laboratory and chest computed tomography (CT) data was collected during ICU stay. The association between ICU predictors and psychosomatic, respiratory and neurocognitive assessments 12 months after ICU discharge was analyzed using univariate regression analysis. In 17 patients (mean age 58.9 ± 11.4 years), laboratory markers (CRP, lymphocytes, hemoglobin), ICU severity (SOFA, SAPS II, need for mechanical ventilation), complications (ARDS), and lung CT data (ground-glass opacity) were promising predictors of depressive and anxiety symptoms, fatigue, and sleep problems. Recovery of psychosomatic health such as fatigue, depression and anxiety correlated with lower levels of inflammation and high hemoglobin levels. ARDS, mechanical ventilation and worse SOFA and SAPS II scores were further risk factors for depressive and anxiety symptoms. Our study identified novel associations such as pulmonary ground-glass opacity being positively associated with depression, anxiety, fatigue, and insomnia levels.

This study determines the threshold for the computational rate of actuator motor controllers for unmanned underwater vehicles necessary to accurately follow discontinuous square wave commands. Motors must track challenging square-wave inputs, and identification of key computational rates permit application of deterministic artificial intelligence (D.A.I.) to achieve tracking to a machine-precision degree of accuracy in direct comparison to other state-of-art approaches. All modeling approaches are validated in MATLAB simulations where the motor process is discretized at varying step-sizes (inversely proportional to computational rate). At a large step-size (fast computational rate), discrete D.A.I. shows a mean error more than three times larger than that of a ubiquitous model-following approach. Yet, at a smaller step size (slower computational rate), the mean error decreases by a factor of 10, only three percent larger than that of continuous D.A.I. Hence, the performance of discrete D.A.I. is critically affected by the sampling period for discretization of the system equations and computational rate. Discrete D.A.I. should be avoided when small step-size discretization is unavailable. In fact, continuous D.A.I. has surpassed all modeling approaches which makes it the safest and most viable solution to future commercial applications in unmanned underwater vehicles.

Different toll collection types of vehicles and different distribution of tollbooths lead to the toll plaza diverging area becoming a typical vehicle weaving area with frequent crossing behaviors and conflicts on highways. This study aims to identify contributing factors to conflict risks of four vehicle-following patterns in a toll plaza diverging area by developing random parameters ordered logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances. The model can flexibly capture the unobserved heterogeneity of the contributing factors in different vehicle-following patterns. Real-world vehicle trajectory data obtained from the toll plaza diverging area in Nanjing, China, are used for model estimation. The results show that vehicle-following patterns with the same toll collection types have higher percentage of severe conflict risks. The average acceleration of the following vehicles, lane marking indicator, the initial lanes and lane-changes of vehicles are significantly associated with the collision risk levels. The standard deviation of surrogate safety measures of all vehicles in sub-segments are found differ significantly between vehicle-following patterns. Furthermore, a series of likelihood ratio tests are adopted to test the spatial dependence in sub-segments of the diverging area. The findings of this study could provide valuable information for safety improvement in toll plazas.

Background: Little is known about the decisional background of choosing an appropriate disease model. Therefore, this paper aims, (1) to identify a spectrum of reasons for choosing between animal and non-animal disease models and (2) provides an ethical analysis of these reasons. Methods: 13 researchers from basic and preclinical research were interviewed, the interviews were analyzed qualitatively and the results were categorized. The ethical analysis was based on the principlism approach and a value judgement model. Results: This paper presents 66 reasons why researchers use animal (41 %) or alternative, non-animal disease models (59 %). Most of the reasons were be assigned to the work environment (29 reasons) and scientific standards (22 reasons). Other reasons were assigned to personal attitudes (11 reasons) and animal welfare (4 reasons). Qualitative relevant normative differences are presented in the ethical analysis. Even if few reasons can be rejected outright from an ethical point of view, there are good reasons to give some more weight than others. Conclusions: The spectrum of reasons and its ethical assessment provide a framework for reflection for researchers who may have to choose between animal models and (investing in) alternatives. This can help to reflect on and justify decisions.

Ammonium ion is a chemical species that is found in abundance in natural waters, whether underground or surface, but also in wastewater resulting from agricultural and industrial activities. Even if the removal of the ammonium ion from water has been studied for a very long time, it has been found that its removal is far from being solved. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the ammonium ions adsorption process on two adsorbents, zeolite clinoptilolite, ZR, (manufacturer Zeolite Develop-ment SRL, Rupea, Brasov, Romania) and the other granular activated carbon type Norit GAC 830 W. In the first step the paper presents the mineralogical (XRD) and structural (SEM and EDX) characterization of the ZR and determination of the pH zero-point charge, pHZPC, for all the adsorbents. Studies were carried out in equilibrium and kinetic conditions. The efficiency of the adsorbent was investigated in different experimental conditions by varying the initial concentration, particle size, temperature, pH, ionic strength and contact time. The mathematical models and parameters specific to the adsorption isotherms that best describe the experimental results were identified. Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin-Radushkevich mathematical models were used for comparison. The Langmuir isotherm proved to be the most appropriate to describe the adsorption of ammonium ions on all types of adsorbents used. The adsorption capacity of ammonium ion from synthetic solutions, at 20 °C, pH = 6.09, for the range of initial concentrations 0 - 50 mg/L for Rupea Zeolite is in the range of 10.46 mg/g -12.34 mg/g and for granular activated carbon GAC W830 is 16.64 mg/g. It was found that the increase in temperature and pH have a positive effect on the adsorption capacity of the ammonium ion on the studied adsorbents, and the ionic strength determines the decrease in the adsorption capacity. Kinetic models were also identified that best describe the experimental processes. In this sense, pseudo first order, pseudo second order, intraparticle diffusion and the Elovich model were used. The results of the investigation showed that second-order kinetics governs the adsorption process on ZR zeolites and pseudo-first order for activated carbon.

Consumer products contain the chemical substances that threaten human health. The modeling methods and experimental methods have been used to estimate the inhalation exposure concentration by the consumer products. The model and measurement methods have the spatial property problem and time/cost consuming problem, respectively. For solving the problems due to the conventional methodology, this study performed the feasibility of applying CFD for evaluation of inhalation exposure by comparing the experiment results and the zero-dimensional results with CFD results. To calculate the aerosol concentration, the CFD was performed by combined the 3D Reynolds averaged Navier Stoke’s equation and discrete phased model using ANSYS FLUENT. As a result of comparing the three methodologies performed under the same simulation/experimental conditions, we found the zero-dimensional spray model shows approximately 5 times underestimated inhalation exposure concentration when compared with the CFD results and measurement results in near field. Also, the results of the measured concentration of aerosols at five locations and the CFD results at the same location were compared to show the possibility of evaluating inhalation exposure at various locations using CFD instead of experimental method. The CFD results according to measurement positions can predict rationally the measurement results with low error. In conclusion, in the field of exposure science, a guideline for exposure evaluation using CFD was found that complements the shortcomings of the conventional methodology, the zero-dimensional spray model and measurement method.

Fatigue loading is critical to fibre reinforced polymer composites due to their anisotropic and heterogenous nature. This study investigated the tensile fatigue behaviour of polyester and vinyl ester based GFRP laminates to understand the critical aspects of failure mode and fatigue life under cyclic loading. GFRP laminates with two different resin systems (polyester and vinyl ester), two different stress ratios (0.1 and 0.5) and two different environmental conditions (air and water) were investigated at an applied stress of 80%, 60% and 40% of the ultimate capacity. Based on the investigated parameters (i.e., resin types, stress ratio, environmental conditioning and maximum applied stress), a fatigue model was proposed. Results show that the resin system plays a great role in fatigue failure mode while the stress ratio and environmental condition significantly affect the tensile fatigue life of GFRP laminates. The types of resin used in GFRP laminates and environmental conditions as input parameter in the proposed fatigue model is a unique contribution.

The implementation of grey and green infrastructure is an effective mean to address urban flooding and nonpoint source pollution, but due to the complexity of the process and the diver-sity of benefits, there is a lack of measurement for their comprehensive benefits. Adopting a typ-ical university in Beijing as an example, this paper simulated the multidimensional benefits of the water quantity, water quality, and ecology of grey and green facility renovation by coupling the storm water management model (SWMM) and InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Manage-ment (ICM). Monetization methods and economical means were employed to characterize the comprehensive benefits. The results showed that grey and green infrastructure retrofitting re-duces the number of severe overflow nodes in the study area by 54.35%, the total overflow vol-ume by 22.17%, and the nonpoint source pollution level by approximately 80% under the heavy rain scenario and 60% under the rainstorm scenario. The annual benefits of grey and green infra-structure renovation reached ¥765,600/year, of this amount, ¥83,100/year is from hydrological regulation, ¥454,100/year is from nonpoint source pollution reduction, and ¥228,300/year is from ecological improvement. The benefits of green facilities were higher than those of grey facilities, and the combined benefits were negatively correlated with the rainfall level, with a total bene-fit–cost ratio of 1.19. The results provide methodological and data support for grey and green in-frastructure retrofitting within the context of sponge cities.

The integration of transportation systems with land use through the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) model can effectively promote sustainable development in cities. By increasing the intensive use of land within the supply capacity of urban public transportation, this model can comprehensively improve the efficiency of urban transportation and land use, while also addressing problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. To implement this model, a "Node-Place-Function" (NPF) framework is proposed based on the coordination degree between rail transit and land use in Qingdao. A comprehensive evaluation system is constructed to quantitatively assess the TOD level and comprehensive development level of land use around rail transit stations from three dimensions. By applying the NSGA-II genetic algorithm, a land use allocation optimization model is developed to maximize rail transit station accessibility, land economic benefits, and environmental comfort. The research results guide other cities in China to implement TOD in land use planning and promote coordinated development between urban rail transit and land use.

Deception Island is an active volcano with a submerged caldera open to the sea, giving it a horseshoe-shaped structure. Several post-caldera-collapsed volcanic events, as well as hydrodynamics within this natural bay, have modified its inner coastline, shaping new tephra deposits and altering the landscape. A hydrodynamic model is presented to predict accretion and erosion trends on the coast, which impact the mobility of researchers and tourists, whether on foot or by boat. Historical orthophoto images and spatiotemporal differences in digital elevation and bathymetric models have been used for validation purposes. The model reveals that the south-facing coast is more susceptible to erosion, while the east-west-facing coast experiences sedimentation. However, a visual study of the coastline has indicated erosion ratios in cliff areas in sedimentary zones. This is likely due to the erosive effect caused by ice floe fragments accumulating in these areas due to wave action. Only a portion of the significant total loss of surface material is received within the bay, including its own erosion, and accumulates on the bay's floor. This is partially due to the volume being composed of snow, and there is also a transfer of material to the exterior to balance the figures.

We examine how observations can be used to evaluate an air quality analysis by verifying against passive observations (i.e. cross-validation) that are not used to create the analysis and we compare these verifications to those made against the same set of (active) observations that were used to generate the analysis. The results show that both active and passive observations can be used to evaluate of first moment metrics (e.g. bias) but only passive observations are useful to evaluate second moment metrics such as variance of observed-minus-analysis and correlation between observations and analysis. We derive a set of diagnostics based on passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and we show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on any statistical optimality assumption. This diagnostic is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the analysis error using several different methods. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth Lonnberg, Desroziers, a diagnostic we introduce, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that as long as the analysis is optimal, all estimates agrees within a certain error margin. The analysis error variance at passive observation sites is also obtained.

The exposure of Mediterranean forests to large wildfires requires mechanisms to prevent and mitigate their negative effects on the territory and ecosystems. Fuel models synthesize the complexity and heterogeneity of forest fuels and allow understanding and modelling of fire behavior. However, it is sometimes challenging to define the fuel type in a structurally heterogeneous forest stand due to the mixture of characteristics from different types and limitations of qualitative field observation and passive and active airborne remote sensing. This can impact the performance of classification models that rely on in situ identification of fuel type as ground-truth, which can lead to a mistaken prediction of fuel types over larger areas in fire prediction models. In this study, a handheld mobile laser scanner (HMLS) system were used to assess its capability to define Prometheus fuel types in 43 forest plots in Aragón (NE Spain). The HMLS system captured the vertical and horizontal distribution of fuel at extremely high resolution to derive high-density three-dimensional point clouds (average: 63,148 points/m2) which were discretized into voxels of 0.05 m3. The total number of voxels in each 5 cm height stratum was calculated to quantify the fuel volume in each stratum, providing the vertical distribution of fuels (m3/m2) for each plot at centimetric scale. Additionally, fuel volume was computed for each Prometheus height stratum (0.60, 2, and 4 m) for each plot. The Prometheus fuel types were satisfactory identified for each plot, which was compared with the fuel type estimated in the field. This led to the modification of the ground-truth in 10 out of the 43 plots, with estimation errors between types 2–3, 5–6, and 6–7. These results demonstrate the ability of HMLS systems to capture fuel heterogeneity at centimetric scales for the definition of fuel types in Mediterranean forests, making them powerful tools for fuel mapping and fire modelling, and ultimately for improving wildfire prevention and forest management.

The city administration of China planned numerous metro projects and more metros can hardly avoid undercrossing a bridge. While metro shield construction when undercrossing a bridge (MSCUB) is frequently located in complicated natural and social context, which made the construction process more susceptible to safety accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to look into safety risk of MSCUB. The paper identified the safety risk factors during SSCUR by using literature review and experts’ evaluation, proposed a novel safety risk assessment model by integrating CFA and FER, and then selected a project case to test the validity of the suggested model. Research results show that (a) a safety risk factors list of MSCUB was identified, including 4 first-level safety risks and 37 second-level safety risk factors; (b) the proposed safety risk assessment model can be used to measure the risk values of the overall worksite safety risk, the first-level safety risks and the safety risk factors of MSCUB; (c) environment-type safety risk and personnel-type safety risk have higher risk values when shield construction undercrossing a bridge; (d) when compared to worker-type safety risk, manager-type safety risk is the higher risk value. The research can enrich the theoretic knowledge of MSCUB safety risk assessment and provide references to safety managers for conducting scientific and effective safety management on the construction site when subway undercrossing a river.

Based on the topology of wide area protection system (WAPS), after studying the reliability of hardware system and information flow in the WAPS and establishing the reliability assessment model, the multi-service reliability analysis method with multi monitoring and protection tasks in WAPS was proposed. In the model, the impact of network quality of service (QoS) such as information flow loss and delay, is studied. On the base of the model, the multi-service reliability evaluation method is employed to analyze the reliability of a WAPS of IEEE14 node power system, and the key nodes of the WAPS is given, which provides a basis for improving the reliability of the WAPS.

In eutrophic waters, such as Mikawa Bay, Japan, anoxic bottom water develops in summer. This causes sulfide release into seawater by sulfate reduction in the sediment, leading to environmental problems. The addition of iron to sediments is a method used to improve the sediment environment, which was devised from a natural phenomenon. However, this method has not yet been quantitatively evaluated. In this study, we aim to quantitatively evaluate the suppressive effect of iron on sulfide release. First, we develop a sediment model that focuses on S and Fe. We then attempted to reproduce the observations and experiments on sulfide dynamics using the model. Consequently, the proposed model was able to reproduce field sulfur and Fe dynamics in sediments. Additionally, the model described the characteristics of sulfide release considering the effects of additive iron materials. Finally, we conducted predictive calculations and quantitatively evaluated the effects of adding iron materials to the sediments in terms of sulfur and iron cycles.

The detrimental consequences of soil pollution caused by crude oil or petroleum products are immense, leading to land degradation, property damage, and rendering agricultural practices ineffective. Extensive research has been conducted in the field of soil remediation, but further studies are still required to explore additional details of the remedial process. As a result, this study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of Vernonia Galamensis and Vernonia Amygdalina, commonly known as bitter leaf, in remediating hydrocarbon-contaminated soil. In the analysis of micro-organisms, it was found that the bitter leaf extracts contained three types of bacteria: Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli. The leaf extracts were prepared using different methods, including sun drying, room drying, and using them in their wet form, which were then blended into the contaminated soil. The study also took into consideration three different types of soil: sandy-loamy soil, clay soil, and swamp soil. These advanced techniques and considerations are relevant to the topic of revolutionizing soil remediation, as they explore the potential of bitter leaf extracts and different soil types in effectively mitigating the effects of hydrocarbon contamination.The findings revealed that the wet blended extracts of Vernonia performed exceptionally well in the remediation process, surpassing a 50% reduction in the initial contamination levels. The study involved utilizing a quantity of bitter leaf ranging from 10g to 40g, which was added to the contaminated soils and monitored for a duration of 40 days. Remarkably, this approach led to a significant decrease in the concentration of contaminants within the soil, indicating the effectiveness of the bitter leaf extracts in the remediation process. Towards the conclusion of the study, predictive models were constructed to forecast the impact of hydrocarbon content, as well as the levels of lead, zinc, and chromium in the soil. These variables served as the dependent variables in the models, while the mass of bitter leaf, the duration of treatment, and the pH of the soil were considered as independent variables. Significantly, the models achieved a level of significance of less than 0.05, indicating their statistical validity. Furthermore, the r2 value, which represents the goodness of fit, demonstrated an appreciable level of accuracy in predicting the remediation effects. These results highlight the potential of the developed models in assessing and predicting the remedial outcomes of hydrocarbon contamination using bitter leaf extract.

The textbook analysis of vacuum energy density (VED) in flat spacetime follows from Pauli’s lectures of 1951, in which quantum vacuum is modeled as a reservoir of free harmonic oscillators. In his lectures, Pauli shows that deriving a nearly vanishing VED is contingent upon fulfilling three corollary conditions called polynomial-in-mass-constraints. The goal of this work is to evaluate Pauli’s constraints against the Standard Model parameters and the Higgs mechanism of spontaneous symmetry breaking.

Solar energy is a renewable resource of energy that is broadly utilized and has the least emissions among the renewable energies. In this study, machine learning methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), least squares support vector machines (LSSVM), and neuro-fuzzy are used for advancing prediction models for thermal performance of a photovoltaic-thermal solar collector (PV/T). In the proposed models, the inlet temperature, flow rate, heat, solar radiation, and the sun heat have been considered as the inputs variables. Data set has been extracted through experimental measurements from a novel solar collector system. Different analyses are performed to examine the credibility of the introduced approaches and evaluate their performance. The proposed LSSVM model outperformed ANFIS and ANNs models. LSSVM model is reported suitable when the laboratory measurements are costly and time-consuming, or achieving such values requires sophisticated interpretations.

Dry powder inhalers are used by a large number of patients worldwide to treat respiratory diseases. The objective of this work is to experimentally investigate changes in aerosol particle diameter and particle number concentration of pharmaceutical aerosols generated by five dry powder inhalers under realistic inhalation and exhalation conditions. The active respiratory system model (xPULM™) was used as a model of the human respiratory system and to simulate a patient undergoing inhalation therapy. A mechanical upper airway model was developed, manufactured and introduced as a part of the xPULM™ to represent the human upper respiratory tract with high fidelity. Integration of optical aerosol spectrometry technique into the setup allowed for evaluation of pharmaceutical aerosols. The results show that the upper airway model increases the resistance of the overall system and act as a filter for bigger particles (>3 µm). Furthermore, there is a significant difference (p < 0.05) in mean particle diameter between inhaled and exhaled particles with the majority of the particles depositing in the lung. The minimum deposition is reached for particle size of 0.5 µm. The mean particle number concentrations exhaled are 2.94% (BreezHaler®), 2.66% (Diskus®), 10.24% (Ellipta®) 2.13% (HandiHaler®) and 6.22% (Turbohaler®). In conclusion, the xPULM™ active respiratory system model is a viable option for studying interactions of pharmaceutical aerosols and the respiratory tract in terms of applicable deposition mechanisms. The model can support the reduction of animal experimentation in aerosol research and provide an alternative to experiments with human subjects.

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. To overcome this, simpler modules such as modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) can be used. In this study, the coupling of the Carbon Bond Mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and MAM3 chemistry modules in WRF-CAM5 was improved by adding biomass-burning emissions to both gas- and particle-phase chemistry and incorporating a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs). The study conducted six simulations over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region and compared the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The results showed that the model with enhanced chemistry capabilities had a 31% and 58% reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) surface concentrations, respectively. The earlier release of the WRF-CAM5 version had two deficiencies that were addressed in this study. This research highlights the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models for improving accuracy and reducing errors in simulations.

Electron Beam Melting (EBM) is an increasingly used Additive Manufacturing (AM) technique employed by many industrial sectors, including the medical device and aerospace industries. In EBM process monitoring, data analysis for processed layer quality evaluation is currently focused on the extraction of information from the raw data collected in-EBM process, i.e. thermal/ optical / electronic images, and the comparison between the collected data and the Computed Tomography (CT)/ microscopy images generated post-EBM process. This article postulates that a stack of bitmaps could be generated from the 3D model at a range of Z heights during file preparation of the EBM process, and serve as a reference image set. In-EBM process comparison between that and the workpiece images collected during the EBM process could then be used for quality assessment purposes. In addition, despite the extensive literature on 3D model slicing and contour generation for AM process preparation, no methods regarding image generation from cross sections of the 3D models have been disseminated in details. This article aims to address this by presenting a piece of 3D model-image generation software. The software is capable of generating binary 3D model reference images with user-defined Region-of-Interest (ROI) of the processing area, and Z heights of the model. It is envisaged that this 3D model-reference image generation ability opens up new opportunities in quality assessment for the in-process monitoring of the EBM process.

: Introduction: Discovering compounds with antibacterial activity is crucial in the current fight against antibiotic-resistance. Material and Methods: We generate two QSAR model to design six new heteroaryl drug candidates; we assessed the antibacterial properties of the compounds against nine ATCC strains, the majority being part of the ESKAPE group, that include Enterococcus faecalis, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and also Salmonella enterica and Escherichia coli. We performed a synergic assay in which we combined PB4, a compound that we have previously tested in published studies, with GC-VI-70, one of the new compounds with the best cytotoxicity/MIC profile. We tested sub-MIC concentrations of PB4 with five antibiotics (linezolid, gentamycin, ampicillin, erythromycin, rifampin and imipenem) to examine the synergic effect on the ATCC strains. To evaluate compounds’ cytotoxicity, we performed a 24-hour and 48-hour 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay on Colorectal Adenocarcinoma (CaCo-2) cells. The antibiotics were tested, alone and in combination with PB4. Results: PB4 lowered the MIC measured for GC-VI-70 and for the various antibiotics employed in clinical use, and all the compounds presented in this study have cytotoxic activity against cells. Conclusions: These compounds show promising use in combination with antibiotics to improve their effectiveness at low concentrations, to prevent unwanted cytotoxic effects.

Access to reliable, clean, modern cooking enhances life chances. One option is photovoltaic cooking systems. Accurate solar data is needed to ascertain to what extent these can satisfy the needs of local people. This paper investigates how to choose the most accurate satellite derived solar irradiance database for use in Africa. This is necessary because there is a general shortage of ground measurements for Africa. The solar data is needed to model the output of solar cooking systems, for instance, a solar panel, battery and electric pressure cooker. Four easily accessible satellite databases are validated against ground measurements using a range of statistical tests. Results demonstrate the impact of the mathematical measure used and the phenomenon of balancing errors. Fitting of the satellite model to appropriate climate zone and/or nearby measurements improves accuracy, as does higher spatial and temporal resolution of input parameters. That said, all the four databases reviewed were found to be suitable for simulating PV yield in East Africa.

In this paper, experimental results about the performance of a Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Controller (TSFC) for an EV3 Ballbot Robotic System (EV3BRS) are reported. The physical configuration for the EV3BRS has the form of an inverted pendulum mounted on a ball. The EV3BRS is an underactuated robotic system with four outputs and two control torques. The Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Model (TSFM) design comes from linearization of the nonlinear model around two operation points near from the upright position of the EV3BRS's body. The Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) approach is used to the design of the TSFC. The Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) approach is used to get the feedback gains for every local linear controller guaranteeing global asymptotically stability, via a more relaxed stability condition, of the overall fuzzy control system. Measurement and control data from and to the EV3BRS are transferred via telecontrol and telemetry.

We enhanced the agro-hydrologic VegET model to include snow accumulation and melt processes and the separation of runoff into surface runoff and deep drainage. Driven by global weather datasets and parameterized by Land Surface Phenology (LSP), the enhanced VegET model was implemented in the cloud to simulate daily soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (ETa), and runoff (R) for the conterminous United States (CONUS) and the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Evaluation of the VegET model with independent data showed satisfactory performance, capturing the temporal variability of SM (Pearson correlation r: 0.22–0.97), snowpack (r: 0.86–0.88), ETa (r: 0.41–0.97), and spatial variability of R (r: 0.81–0.90). Absolute magnitudes showed some biases, indicating the need of calibrating the model for water budget analysis. The seasonal Landscape Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (L-WRSI) for CONUS and GHA showed realistic depictions of drought hazard extent and severity, indicating the usefulness of the L-WRSI for the convergence of evidence toolkit used by the Famine Early Warning System Network to monitor potential food insecurity conditions in different parts of the world. Using projected weather datasets and landcover-based LSP, the VegET model can be used not only for global monitoring of drought conditions, but also for evaluating scenarios on the effect of a changing climate and land cover on agriculture and water resources.

Currently, urban renewal activities in China are booming. And promoting the renovation of public buildings is the key due to its large scale, high cost and significant impact to the nature and social environment. To reduce the ambiguity and uncertainty in evaluating the potential for renewal of existing public buildings, a renewal potential evaluation model combining game theory combination weighting method and cloud model theory is proposed. The paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system based on relevant standards and literature. Game theory is used to optimize the weights obtained by AHP and entropy weight methods to obtain a combined weight. MATLAB programming is used to calculate the comprehensive cloud parameters of the evaluation index for the potential renewal of existing public buildings and therefore generate cloud Graphs. Through case study in Nanjing of China, it has been demonstrated that the combination empowerment cloud model can objectively reflect the relationship between the fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators for public building renewal potential. The expression of cloud Graphs can intuitively reflect the magnitude of renewal and renovation potential and the degree of uncertainty in evaluation results. The research result provides useful references for the sustainable utilization of building resources in the era of building.

The research field of energy system analysis is dealing with increasingly complex energy systems and their respective challenges. Moreover, the requirement for open science has become a focal point of public interest. Both drivers have triggered the development of a broad range of (open) energy models and frameworks in recent years. However, there are hardly any approaches on how to evaluate these tools in terms of their capabilities to tackle energy system modelling challenges. This paper describes a first step towards a flexible evaluation of software to model energy systems. We propose a qualitative approach as an useful supplementary to existing model fact sheets and transparency checklists. We demonstrate the applicability by evaluating the newly developed “Open Energy Modelling Framework” with respect to existing challenges in energy system modelling. The case study results highlight that challenges related to complexity and scientific standards can be tackled to a large extent while the challenges of model utilization and interdisciplinary modelling are only tackled partially. However, the challenge of uncertainty remains for the most part unaddressed at present. Advantages of the evaluation approach lie in its simplicity, flexibility and transferability to other tools. Disadvantages mostly stem from its qualitative nature. Our analysis reveals that some challenges in the field of energy system modelling cannot be addressed by a software as they are on meta level like model result communication and interdisciplinary modelling.

Coseismic landslides pose significant threats, causing widespread destruction of buildings, roads, pipelines, and leading to numerous casualties. In recent years, the frequency of earthquakes has increased, prompting a growing interest in regional-scale assessment techniques for coseismic landslides. The infinite slope model proposed by Newmark is widely used to evaluate coseismic landslide hazard. However, the infinite slope model fails to reflect the impact of rock mass structure on the stability of slopes. This paper proposes a novel approach for mapping the hazards of coseismic landslides by considering the roughness of the potential slide surfaces in the inner slope. The proposed method is validated using data from the 2013 Lushan earthquake. The datasets, including geological units, peak ground acceleration (PGA), and high-resolution digital elevation models of topography, are rasterized at a grid spacing of 30 meters. They are then combined within an infinite slope model based on Newmark permanent-deformation analysis, enabling the estimation of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid area resulting from the Lushan earthquake. The modeled displacements are compared with the inventory of landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake, allowing the derivation of a confidence level function that relates predicted displacement to the spatial variation of coseismic landslides. Ultimately, a hazard map of coseismic landslides is generated based on the established confidence level function. This map serves as a valuable tool for predicting the hazard zone of seismic regions and offers essential insights for decision-making related to infrastructure development and post-earthquake construction.

The study used ERA5 reanalysis SST dataset re-gridded to a common grid of 0.25° X 0.25° spatial resolution (latitude × longitude) for the historic (1940–2014) and projected (2015–2100). The SST simulation under the SSP5-8.5 scenarios was carried out with output from 8 General Circulation Models (GCMs). The bias-corrected dataset was developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping EQM for the historical (1940-2015) and the future (2030-2100) while the CMIP6 model simulation was evaluated against the ERA5 monthly rainfall observed data for monthly and annual sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Gulf of Guinea. ). The CMIP6 models simulation for SST projection from 2030-20100 based on SSPS 8.5 SST is projected to increase by 4.61o (31oC) in 2030 to 35oC in 20100 in the coastal GOG and 2.6oC in the Western GOG (Sahel). The correlation coefficient (r) was used to evaluate the performance of the CMIP6 models and the analysis showed ACCESS 0.1,CAMS CSM 0.2, CAN ESM 0.3, CMCC, 0.3 and MCM, 0.4 indicating that all models performed well in capturing the climatological pattern of the SST. The.CMIP6 bias corrected model simulations showed increased SST warming over the GOG will be higher in the Far period end than the Near-term climate. The study affirmed that the CMIP6 projections can be used for multiple assessments related to climate and hydrological impact studies and for the development of mitigation measures under a warming climate

Brazil has a large availability of natural resources and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle are particularly concerning since water resources are used for electricity production, representing approximately 65% of the Brazilian electricity matrix. This study, therefore, aims to evaluate the hydroclimatic extreme trends of river basins located in the Northeast and South regions of the country. For this purpose, we carried out a flow analysis from 2020 to 2100, considering the precipitation data from the BCC CSM1-1, CCSM4, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M models presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC. We used the SMAP rainfall-runoff model to obtain future flow projections for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As a result, we observed a trend toward water loss and intensification of extreme events, with an increase in variability in both scenarios. We also noted that these climate models have difficulty reproducing the natural variability of southern basins, as the simplification of atmospheric phenomena parameterization prevents them from correctly projecting the precipitation.

Evaluating the economic and environmental effects of farmers' green production behaviors holds important reference value for promoting sustainable agricultural development, alleviating agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution, and achieving the organic combination of environmental protection and economic development. This paper utilizes survey data from 1,345 farm households in the main rice production areas of Jiangxi Province, China, using the example of reduced fertilizer application (RFA) among rice farmers. By constructing a DEA—SBM model with undesirable outputs to measure environmental effects, and applying an endogenous switching model to test the economic and environmental effects of farmers' adoption of green production technologies. The study found that: (1)The behavior of RFA by farmers has a significant positive impact on their net profit per mu(NPPA), helping farmers increase their income, with the increase ranging from 2.05% to 6.54%. (2)The behavior of RFA by farmers has a significant positive impact on agricultural green productivity(AGP), contributing to the improvement of the environment, with the improvement ranging from 44.09% to 45.35%. (3)Heterogeneity analysis found inconsistencies in the income-enhancing and environmental-enhancing effects at different quantiles of NPPA and AGP. Therefore, attention should be placed on improving the agricultural product quality supervision system under the market circulation mechanism, creating land scale conditions conducive to the promotion and application of fertilizer reduction technologies, and promoting the implementation of externality internalization compensation systems.

Tuberculosis (TB) is still a worldwide major health problem and models using non-human primates (NHP) provide the most relevant approach for vaccine testing. In this study we have analysed CT images collected from cynomolgus and rhesus macaques, following exposure to ultra-low dose Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) aerosols, and monitored them for 16 weeks to evaluate the impact of prior intradermal or inhaled BCG-vaccination on the progression of lung disease. All lesions found (2553) have been classified according to their size and we have subclassified small micronodules (<4.4 mm) as ‘isolated’, or as ‘daughter’ when they are in contact with consolidation (described as lesions ≥ 4.5 mm). Our data links the higher capacity to contain Mtb infection in cynomolgus with the reduced incidence of daughter micronodules, thus avoiding the development of consolidated lesions and their consequent enlargement and evolution to cavitation. In the case of rhesus, intradermal vaccination has a higher capacity to reduce the formation of daughter. This study supports the ‘Bubble Model’ defined with the C3HBe/FeJ mice and proposes a new method to evaluate outcome in experimental models of TB in NHP based on CT images, which would fit a future machine learning approach to evaluate new vaccines.

This is the first study to comprehensively evaluate the benefit of urban open spaces and cropland with different adjacent public facilities seen as locally undesirable (“not in my backyard,” NIMBY) or desirable (“yes in my backyard,” YIMBY). The total benefit increases or decreases for urban open space and cropland with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities in a municipality in Taiwan. The results show that for the city as a whole, the current arrangement of NIMBY and YIMBY in different zones decreases the total benefit of urban open spaces in highly urbanized zones and increases the total damage to cropland in extremely rural zones. This indicates a need to avoid further installing NIMBY or YIMBY facilities in already occupied urban open spaces. The results also demonstrate that locating NIMBY or YIMBY facilities near cropland fails to highlight the benefit of YIMBY facilities and magnifies opposition to NIMBY facilities. For individual housing units, the total damage is 1.87% of the average housing price for cropland-type open space with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities, and the total benefit is 7.43% of the average housing price for urban-type open space in a highly urbanized area. In contrast, the total benefit for open space with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities is a 2.95%-13.80% increase in the average housing price for areas with mixed urban open space and cropland.

Aortic disease has a significant impact on quality of life. Involvement of the aortic arch requires preservation of blood supply to the brain during surgery. Deep hypothermic circulatory arrest is an established technique for this purpose although neurological injury remains high. Additional techniques have been used to reduce the risk although controversy still remains. A three-way cannulation approach, including both carotid arteries and the femoral artery or the ascending aorta, has been used successfully for aortic arch replacement and redo procedures. We have de-veloped circuits of the circulation to simulate blood flow during this type of cannulation set up. The aim is to analyse using CARDIOSIM© cardiovascular simulation platform, how the haemodynamic and energetic parameters are affected and the benefit derived with particular reference to the cerebral circulation.

We present a general theory of estimation of analysis error covariances based on cross-validation as well as a geometric interpretation of the method. In particular we use the variance of passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on the optimality assumption. This approach is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the air quality analysis error using several different methods at active and passive observation sites. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth-Lönnberg, Desroziers et al., a new diagnostic we developed, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that, as long as the analysis is near optimal, all estimates agree within a certain error margin.

Modern war is sudden and rapid, and once the battle starts, the demand for equipment maintenance and guarantee will show an outburst situation, which puts equipment maintenance and guarantee capability to a severe test. To accurately grasp the civil-military integration of aviation maintenance and guarantee capabilities, it is necessary to evaluate their capabilities. To this end, the evaluation indicator system is established by using the three-dimensional indicator system construction model of "maintenance task → task demand → capability demand", and the evaluation method based on intuitionistic fuzzy entropy and normal grey cloud model is proposed, using intuitionistic fuzzy entropy theory to determine the expert weights and indicator weights, and the grey cloud model theory to determine the capability evaluation level. Finally, the application process of the evaluation model is demonstrated through specific examples, and the evaluation results are analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation model.

Modern war is sudden and rapid, and once the battle starts, the demand for equipment maintenance and guarantee will show an outburst situation, which puts equipment maintenance and guarantee capability to a severe test. To accurately grasp the civil-military integration of aviation maintenance and guarantee capabilities, it is necessary to evaluate their capabilities. To this end, the evaluation indicator system is established by using the three-dimensional indicator system construction model of "maintenance task → task demand → capability demand", and the evaluation method based on intuitionistic fuzzy entropy and normal grey cloud model is proposed, using intuitionistic fuzzy entropy theory to determine the expert weights and indicator weights, and the grey cloud model theory to determine the capability evaluation level. Finally, the application process of the evaluation model is demonstrated through specific examples, and the evaluation results are analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation model.

Parkinson's Disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that affects the motor system of the human body. Currently, the available treatments are limited and often have undesirable side effects. In this context, the aim of this study was to develop a novel combinational formulation of Apomorphine and Quetiapine and evaluate its efficacy in a rat model of PD. The formulation was prepared using the solvent evaporation technique and characterized for its physicochemical properties. The in-vitro drug release was evaluated using the Franz diffusion cell method, and the pharmacokinetics of the combination was studied in rats. The behavioural and biochemical parameters were evaluated in the rats using the Rotarod, pole test, and biochemical assays. The results showed that the developed formulation had satisfactory physicochemical properties and exhibited sustained drug release. The pharmacokinetic studies showed that the combination exhibited a longer residence time than the individual drugs. The behavioural and biochemical parameters showed that the combination was effective in improving motor function and reducing oxidative stress. In conclusion, the developed Apomorphine and Quetiapine combination formulation showed promising results in improving motor function and reducing oxidative stress in rat model of PD. Further studies are required to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the developed formulation in humans.

Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is an important index to evaluate radiation performance and image quality of optical imaging systems under low illumination background. Under the nighttime lighting condition, the illumination of remote sensing objects is low and varies greatly, usually ranging from several lux to tens of thousands of lux. Nighttime light remote sensing imaging requires high sensitivity and large dynamic range of detectors. Luojia 1-01 is the first professional nighttime light remote sensing satellite in the world. In this paper, we took the nighttime light remote sensing camera carried on the satellite as research object, proposed an in-orbit SNR test method based on time series images to overcome the problem of low spatial resolution. We first analyzed the process of luminous flux transmission between objects and satellite and established a radiative transfer model. By combining the parameters of large relative aperture optical system and high sensitivity CMOS device, we established SNR model and specially analyzed the effect of exposure time and quantization bits on SNR. Finally we used the proposed in-orbit test method to calculate SNR of lighting images acquired by satellite. And the measured result is in good agreement with the model predicted data. Under the condition of 10lx illumination, the SNR of typical objects can reach 27.02dB, which is much better than the requirement of 20dB for engineering application.

Aims: This study aims to evaluate the impact of family-centered empowerment on Jordanian adolescents with type 1 diabetes (T1DM), focusing on their HbA1c levels, self-efficacy, and quality of life (QOL). Background: Poor glycemic management in adolescents with type 1 diabetes increases complications. Improved control is linked to various variables, but few studies focus on Middle Eastern populations. Methods: An experimental study involved 68 adolescents with T1DM visiting Jordanian Royal Medical Services' clinics. Two sets of participants were created: control (n = 34) and intervention (n = 34). Data was collected through face-to-face interviews and medical records. Results: The study found significant differences in self-efficacy scores between the intervention and control groups, with the intervention group experiencing a significant decrease in HbA1c readings and a significant difference in QOL between pre-program and post-program phases. Discussion: Family empowerment can significantly improve the lives of Jordanian teenagers with type 1 diabetes. This strategy leads to improved glycemic management, increased self-efficacy, and improved quality of life. Future treatments and health policies should recognize and value the critical role families play in the care of this population. Conclusion: The study suggests that patients with T1DM should receive continuous care education sessions, including self-care training, to improve their health. Nurses should also incorporate these training into treatment plans and educational programs for adolescents to enhance their QOL.

Citizen participation has always been of vital importance in decision-making processes and, likewise, joint work in the formulation and execution of projects that respond to territorial needs. This in order to ensure the best impact of public or private investment, optimizing the result and community articulation. For this reason, this investigation proposes a methodology of evaluation and prioritization of projects based on an approach integrated between the modelling in dynamics systems (SDM) and the Analytical process network (ANP), in which the citizen factors are used as qualitative and quantitative variables inside the posed balance sheet model. This is how the model developed by the Stella Architect software, it offers to the decision makers approximate information about the reality of the community, especially those who were affected by the Colombian conflict and where the expectations of a comprehensive repair could disrupt the socioeconomic system and reveal more pressing interests than those of the central government. The methodology is described by the information gotten through the participatory workshops done in the California county that belongs to the Magdalena region, this is a very affected region by the conflict in Colombia. The investigation results confirm the useful of, first of all, the use of the modelling as an information-generating tool by allowing the simulation of relevant variables in the evaluation and prioritization of projects at different moments of time and, in second place, use the knowledge of the experts that expose the ANP method for establishing the importance of each variable compared with other variables and, likewise of each project compared to the rest of the alternatives in each of the different instants of time in which the evaluation is carried out, given that the results could change in any time, the official ranking is showed after an optimization process with partial results.

The three-armed cluster-randomized trial ARena (Sustainable reduction of antibiotic-induced antimicrobial resistance) aimed to foster appropriate antibiotic use and reduce overprescribing in German ambulatory care to counter antibiotic resistance. Multi-faceted interventions targeted primary care physicians, teams and patients. This study examined effectiveness of the implementation program. ARena was conducted in 14 primary care networks with 196 practices. All arms received data-based feedback on antibiotics prescribing and quality circles. Arms II and III received different add-on components each. Primary outcome examined is the prescribing rate for systemic antibiotics for cases with non-complicated acute infections (upper respiratory tract, bronchitis, sinusitis, tonsillitis, otitis media). Secondary outcomes refer to prescribing of quinolones and guideline-recommended antibiotics. Based on pseudonymized quarterly claims data, mixed logistic regression models examined pre-post intervention antibiotic prescribing rate changes and compared to matched standard care. A significant rate reduction (arm I 11.7%; arm II 9.9%; arm III 12.7%) and significantly lower prescribing rates were observed for all arms (20.1%, 18.9% and 23.6%) compared to matched standard care (29.4%). Fluoroquinolone prescribing was reduced in all intervention arms and rates for recommended substances generally increased. No significant post-interventional difference between intervention arms was detected. Findings indicate implementation program impact compared to standard care. Trial registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN58150046

The Oxford English Dictionary includes 17 definitions for the word “model” as a noun and other 11 as a verb. Therefore, context is necessary to understand the meaning of the word model. For in-stance, “model railways” refer to replicas of railways and trains at a smaller scale and a “model student” refers to an exemplar individual. In some cases, a specific context, like cancer research, may not be sufficient to provide one specific meaning of a model. Even if the context is narrowed, specifically to the research related to the tumour microenvironment, a “model” can be understood in a wide variety of ways, from an animal model, to a mathematical expression. This paper presents a review of the different “models” of the tumour microenvironment grouped by the different def-initions of the word into four categories: model organisms, in vitro models, mathematical models, and computational models. Then, the frequency of different meanings of the word “model” related to the tumour microenvironment is measured from the number of entries in the MEDLINE database of the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health. The frequency of the main components of the microenvironment and the organ-related cancers modelled are also assessed quantitatively with specific keywords. Whilst animal models, in particular xenografts and mouse models are the most common used “models”, the number of entries have been slowly de-creasing. Mathematical models, prognostic and risk models follow in frequency and these have been growing in use.

This study investigates the long-term stability of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) moderate-resolution Thermal Emissive Bands (M TEBs; M12 – M16) covering a period from February 2012 to August 2020. It also assesses inter-sensor consistency of the VIIRS M TEBs among three satellites-S-NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21 over eight months spanning from March 18 to November 30, 2023. The field of interesting is limited to the ocean surface between 60°S and 60°N, specifically under clear-sky conditions. Taking radiative transfer modeling (RTM) as the transfer reference, we employed the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) to simulate VIIRS TEB brightness temperature (BTs), incorporating European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data as inputs. Our results reveal two key findings. Firstly, the reprocessed S-NPP VIIRS TEBs exhibit a robust long-term stability, as demonstrated through analyses of the observation minus background BT differences (O-B ∆BTs) between VIIRS measurements (O) and CRTM simulations (B). The drifts of the O-B BT differences are consistently less than 0.105 K/Decade across all S-NPP VIIRS M TEB bands. Notably, observations from VIIRS M14 and M16 stand out with drifts well within 0.04 K/Decade, reinforcing their exceptional reliability for climate change studies. Secondly, excellent inter-sensor consistency among these three VIIRS instruments is confirmed through the double-difference analysis method (O-O). This method relies on the O-B BT differences obtained from daily data. The mean inter-VIIRS O-O BT differences remain within 0.08 K for all M TEBs, except for M13. Even in the case of M13, the O-O BT differences between NOAA-21 and NOAA-20/S-NPP have values of 0.312 K and 0.234 K, respectively, which are comparable to the 0.2 K difference between some TEBs among VIIRS and MODIS. These disparities are primarily attributed to the significant differences in the Spectral Response Function (SRF) of NOAA-21 compared to NOAA-20 and S-NPP. Our study confirms the RTM-based TEB quality evaluation method’s versatility and effectiveness in assessing long-term sensor stability and inter-sensor consistency. The double-difference approach effectively mitigates uncertainties and biases inherent to CRTM simulations, establishing itself a robust mechanism for assessing inter-sensor consistency. In addition, we’ve observed that, except for M13, M12 always exhibits larger spatial variations of O-O BT differences with greater uncertainties compared to the other M TEBs. The influence of solar contribution through sea surface reflection on the Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiance measurements during daytime in M12 should not be underestimated.

Microarray gene expression-based detection and classification of medical conditions have been prominent in research studies over the past few decades. However, extracting relevant data from the high-volume microarray gene expression with inherent nonlinearity and inseparable noise components raises significant challenges during data classification and disease detection. So, this paper proposes a two-level strategy involving feature extraction and selection methods before the classification step. The feature extraction step utilizes Short Term Fourier Transform (STFT), and the feature selection step employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Harmonic Search (HS) metaheuristic methods. The classifiers employed are Non-Linear Regression, Gaussian Mixture Model, Softmax Discriminant, Naive Bayes, SVM (Linear), SVM (Polynomial), and SVM (RBF). The two-level extracted relevant features are compared with raw data classification results, including Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) Methodology. Among the methods, STFT with PSO feature selection and SVM (RBF) classifier produced the highest accuracy of 94.47%.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

In this paper, we integrate the Finite Element Method (FEM) with orthogonal polynomial approximation in high-dimensional spaces to innovatively model the Moon’s surface gravity anomaly. Our aim is to approximate solutions to Laplace’s classical differential equations of gravity, employing classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions. Using classical Chebyshev polynomials as basis functions, the least-squares approximation was used to approximate discrete samples of the approximation function. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. These test functions provide an understanding of errors in approximation and corresponding errors due to differentiation and integration. The first application of this project is to substitute the globally-valid classical spherical harmonic series of approximations with locally-valid series of orthogonal polynomial approximations (i.e. using the FEM approach). With an error tolerance set at 10−9ms−2, we use this method to adapt the gravity model radially upwards from the lunar surface. The results showcase a need for a higher degree of approximation on and near the lunar surface, with the necessity decreasing as the radius increases. Notably, this method achieves a computational speedup of five orders of magnitude when applying the method to radial adaptation. More intrinsically, our second application involves using the methodology as an effective tool in solving boundary value problems. Specifically, we implement this approach to solve classical differential equations involved with high precision, long-term orbit propagation. This application provides a four-order of magnitude speedup in computational time while maintaining an error within the 10−10ms−2 error range for various orbit propagation tests. Alongside the advancements in orthogonal approximation theory, the FEM enables revolutionary speedups in orbit propagation without compromising accuracy.

Monitoring and protecting flowing watercourses is a complex and challenging task that requires the collaboration and coordination of various stakeholders such as governments, industries, farmers, consumers and environmental groups. The study of the dynamics of the concentration of polluting factors and especially the concentrations of heavy metals and highlighting a seasonal variation is a necessary element from this point of view. In this article, we present the results of our analyzes carried out in two measurement campaigns executed in 10 monitoring points along the Danube River, between Braila city and Isaccea city in the pre-deltaic area, during the summer season and autumn season 2022. The importance of this area is given by the fact that the Dan-ube Delta is part of the UNESCO heritage and the monitoring of polluting factors is a necessity in the desire to protect this area. The data measured during the July and August 2022 campaign co-vers a wide range of chemical species: Phosphate, CCO, CBO5, NH4+, N-NO2, N-NO3-, N-Total, P-PO4 3-, SO42-, Cl-, phenols, as well as metals with a harmful effect: Aluminum, Arsenic, Cad-mium, Chromium, Iron. The study includes an evaluation based on the statistical approach of the results to highlight the significant correlations and differences identified between the two data sets. Next, to highlight the obtained results, a numerical model was considered using HEC-RAS and ESRI ArcGis applications in a two-dimensional unsteady flow model in order to get the non-homogenous concentrations’distributions in the studied area. These two-dimensional models have been less studied in the specialized literature. In this way, interesting results could be ob-tained and prediction methods regarding the dynamics of metal concentrations could be struc-tured. The data obtained was used for the terrain model from the USGS service and the flows of the Danube and its two tributaries were simulated using the data provided by the national ser-vices. In this work, we present the results obtained for the dynamics of the concentrations of the metals Aluminum, Arsenic, Cadmium, Chromium and Iron and the evaluation of the specific ab-sorption coefficients for the explanation and correlation with the results of the measurements. The study is part of a more complex project in which the spatio-temporal distribution of the polluting factors in the water was evaluated and the habitats in the study area were inventoried - especially those of community interest. the aspects related to the influence of the distribution of polluting factors on the state of health will be the subject of another article.

This study systematically addresses the challenge of accurately modeling memristors, focusing on four distinct types doped with tungsten, tin, chromium, and carbon, fabricated by Known Inc. A comprehensive characterization was performed by subjecting the devices to sinusoidal excitations with varying frequencies and amplitudes, followed by data averaging and high-frequency filtering. The resulting measurements were fitted using three prominent memristor models: VTEAM, MMS, and Yakopcic, with additional bespoke modifications assessed. These models, typically formulated as coupled algebraic-differential equations integrating electrical quantities (voltage and current) with internal state variables governing device dynamics, were optimized using two robust approaches: (1) interior-point optimization with gradient-based search, and (2) Nelder-Mead gradient-free optimization, both with box constraints applied. A thorough comparison and discussion of the optimized model parameters ensued, accompanied by an examination of sensitivity to diverse frequency and amplitude ranges. The findings inform conclusions and provide a foundation for future refinements, underscoring the importance of multi-model evaluation and advanced optimization strategies in precise memristor modeling. The presented methodology offers a valuable framework for elucidating optimal modeling paradigms tailored to specific memristor architectures and operating regimes, ultimately enhancing their integration in emerging neuromorphic and computational applications.

In Model-Driven Development (MDD), the models, their generation, and imposing changes on them (model transformation) are used for the development of software. Models provide a framework to start from the imagination and abstraction to create and accomplish the final system. Models create a slow and steady transition from whatness to howness, i.e. from the natural path of the generation of software. For supporting this path, the Logic and Functionality of software must be changeable during its evolution. Here we provide a brief introduction to the concept of Model Driven Development.

Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Configuration techniques have been used in several fields, such as the design of business process models. Sometimes these models depend on the data dependencies, being easier to describe "what" has to be done instead of "how". Configuration models enable to use a declarative representation of business processes, deciding the most appropriate work-flow in each case. Unfortunately, data dependencies among the activities and how they can affect the correct execution of the process, has been overlooked in the declarative specifications and configurable systems found in the literature. In order to find the best process configuration for optimizing the execution time of processes according to data dependencies, we propose the use of Constraint Programming paradigm with the aim of obtaining an adaptable imperative model in function of the data dependencies of the activities described declarative.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

This paper describes a memory model with 2 levels of information. The lower-level stores source data, is Markov-like and unweighted. Then an upper-level ontology is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information, by transposing from an ensemble to a hierarchy at each level. The ontology is useful for search processes and the aggregating process transposes the information from horizontal set-based sequences to more vertical typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be sent by the calling module. This therefore allows different weight sets to be imposed on the same linking structure. The success of the ontology typing is open to interpretation, but the author would suggest that when clustering text, the result was types based more on use and context, for example, 'linking' with 'structure' or 'provide' with 'web,' for a document describing distributed service-based networks. This allows the system to economise over symbol use, where links to related symbols will be clustered together. The author then conjectures that a third level would be more neural in nature and would include functions or operations to be performed on the data, along with related memory information.

Brain models present a viewpoint on the fundamental structural components of the brain and their mutual organization, generally relative to a particular concept of the brain axis. A model may be based on adult brain structure or on developmental morphogenetic aspects. Brain models usually have functional implications, depending on which functional properties derive from the postulated organization. This essay examines the present scenario about brain models, emphasizing the contrast between columnar or other longitudinal models and transverse subdivisional neuromeric models. In each case, the main functional implications and apparent problems are explored and commented. Particular attention is given to the modern molecularly based ‘prosomeric model’, which postulates a set of 20 transverse prosomeres as the developmental units that serve to construct all the cerebral parts and the particular typology of many different neuronal populations within the forebrain and the hindbrain, plus a number of additional spinal cord units. These metameric developmental units (serially repeated, but with unique molecular profiles) confer to this model remarkable functional properties based mainly on its multiplicity and modularity. Many important brain functions can be decomposed into subfunctions attended to by combined sets of neuronal elements derived from different neuromeres. Each neuromere may participate in multiple functions. Most aspects related to creation of precise order in neural connections (axonal navigation and synaptogenesis) and function is due to the influence of neuromeric anteroposterior and dorsoventral positional information. Research on neuromeric functionality aspects is increasing significantly in recent times.

Small island developing states (SIDS) traditionally face a set of challenges like the narrow economic structure, environmental issues, and dependence on a few ranges of economic activities forcing them to open the economy to the exterior. Therefore, their development model, like in Cape Verde depends on migration, remittances, dependence on aid, tourism, and state employment. The current research offers an insight about the nature of Cape Verde’s economy as a SIDS and the degree to which its economy depends on tourism and government services, both of which are supported through aid programs. Understanding Cape Verde’s development model is important to clarify the challenges the country faces, and its development needs to gather a long-term resilience and to understand if it is changing from a MIRAB (Migrations, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy) model into another one.

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

As the problem of air pollution becomes more urgent, the precise determination of the characteristics of air pollution and the associated mechanisms of transport of pollutants becomes an increasingly urgent task. The simulation results of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) [18] were used as initial data sets. The area of the Crimean Peninsula (within coordinates 44.50 latitude, 33.50 longitude) in 23 - 26 January, 2019 was chosen for the study. That time concentrations of pollutants (aerosol particles with a diameter of 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 micrometers (PM10)) steadily increased and reached the maximum value. Four kinds of meteorological data sets were used in the work. The first and second data sets were the global NCEP/NCAR and (ERA-5) re-analyses. The third and fourth meteorological data sets were obtained using the Weather tracking and Forecasting model (WRF) as domains on high-resolution grids: 9 km and 2 km. The analysis of meteorological data sets was carried out to analyze the nature of the air masses movement in the studied region. Using the HYSPLIT model simulation was carried out to determine area of the sources of negative impact. The emissions transfer from the supposed sources of negative impact on the Crimea region is analyzed. The sensitivity of simulation the inverse and direct trajectories of air masses transfer was studied based a set of simulation results. On the basis of HYSPLIT model the simulation was carried out separately using meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolutions. In general, the simulation results allowed us to conclude that the HYSPLIT model in combination with high-resolution meteorological input data of the WRF model are good to identify the sources of possible negative effects on atmospheric air located at long distances from the study site.

During the past two decades of e-commerce growth, the concept of a business model has become increasingly popular. More recently, the research on this realm has grown rapidly, with diverse research activity covering a wide range of application areas. Considering the sustainable development goals, the innovative business models have brought a competitive advantage to improve the sustainability performance of organizations. The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of a business strategy. Different industries and businesses have utilized sustainable business models’ concept to satisfy their economic, environmental, and social goals simultaneously. However, the success, popularity, and progress of sustainable business models in different application domains are not clear. To explore this issue, this research provides a comprehensive review of sustainable business models literature in various application areas. Notable sustainable business models are identified and further classified in fourteen unique categories, and in every category, the progress -either failure or success- has been reviewed, and the research gaps are discussed. Taxonomy of the applications includes innovation, management and marketing, entrepreneurship, energy, fashion, healthcare, agri-food, supply chain management, circular economy, developing countries, engineering, construction and real estate, mobility and transportation, and hospitality. The key contribution of this study is that it provides an insight into the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and future research directions. This paper concludes that popularity and the success rate of sustainable business models in all application domains have been increased along with the increasing use of advanced technologies.