ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0068.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Climate; Elderly; Mortality; Meteorological Variables
Online: 3 August 2020 (09:56:17 CEST)
With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate sensitivity is related to their thermal perception. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordão, Ribeirão Preto and Santos, from 1996 to 2017. We applied the Autoregressive Model Integrated with Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordão and lower in Santos (and intermediate values in Ribeirão Preto). Campos do Jordão results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirão Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences. Therefore, this can assist decision makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0276.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; transmission; meteorological impact
Online: 19 July 2022 (04:05:25 CEST)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known globally as COVID-19, originated in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province in China and has rapidly spread across the globe ever since. The first recorded case in sub-Saharan Africa was in Nigeria, on the 25th February, 2020. The virus continues to spread, and new variants of the disease have emerged, the number of deaths and new infections in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa has been relatively low compared to predictive models. This could be due to several factors, such as slower transmission dynamics of the virus, a lower-case fatality rate, or a lack of testing or reliable data. Whilst this may also, in part, be due to the robustness of the nations' public health responses, there is scarce reporting on the specifics of this. However, emerging research has demonstrated that various environmental factors could influence virus transmission. The study adopted collected meteorological data that was critically analysed and discussed. The impact of three factors in the context of sub-Saharan African nations: temperature, ultraviolet (UV) exposure and pre-existing infection with Plasmodium (malaria) were discussed. These factors were discussed critically in light of the reduced rates of transmission and mortality observed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0211.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: particulates; wetland; concentration; meteorological factors; removal efficiency
Online: 22 January 2019 (11:06:49 CET)
Particulate matter is a severe source of atmospheric pollution in urban cities, and it has adverse effects on human health. This study was conducted during the whole year of 2016 to monitor the concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 on the Beijing Hanshiqiao wetland and bare land in Beijing to analyze their correlations with meteorological factors and compare the removal efficiency between two land surface types. The results indicated that (1) the PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations on the bare land were higher than those on wetland as a whole, reaching the highest value both at night and dusk and the lowest value near noon. The average concentration of PM10 was higher in winter (wetland: 137.48 μg·m-3; bare land: 164.75 μg·m-3) and spring (wetland: 205.18 μg·m-3; bare land: 244.85 μg·m-3) and the concentration of PM2.5 on the wetland also reached the higher value in winter and spring with the average of 84.52 μg·m-3 and 98.98 μg·m-3, whereas, it was higher in spring and summer on the bare land; (2) concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 were significantly positively affected by the relative humidity (P < 0.01) and negatively influenced by wind speed (P < 0.05). The relationship between PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations and temperature was found complicated: it showed a significantly negative correlation (P < 0.01) in winter and spring and was insignificant in autumn, but in summer, only the correlation between the PM10 concentration and temperature on wetland was significant (P < 0.01); (3) the removal efficiencies of PM10 and PM2.5 followed the order of spring > winter > autumn > summer on the wetland, and the removal efficiency of PM10 was greater than that of PM2.5. This study is aim to provide practical measures to improve the air quality and facilitate sustainable development in Beijing.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0257.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: remote sensing; vegetation coverage; drought; meteorological conditions; Afghanistan
Online: 18 July 2022 (10:04:50 CEST)
The vulnerability of vegetation in the Middle East to meteorological conditions and climate change, especially those leading to drought, is high. Despite the importance of the Amu Darya and Kabul River Basins (ADB and KRB) as a region in which more than 15 million people live, and its vulnerability to global warming, only several studies addressed the issue of the linkage of meteorological parameters on vegetation for the eastern basins of Afghanistan. In this study, data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), and Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to examine the impact of meteorological parameters on vegetation for the eastern basins of Afghanistan for the period from 2000 to 2021. The study utilized several indices, such as Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI), and Microwave Integrated Drought Index (MIDI). The relationships between meteorological quantities, drought conditions, and vegetation variations were examined by analyzing the anomalies and using regression methods. The results showed that the years 2000, 2001, and 2008 had the lowest vegetation coverage (VC) (56, 56, and 55% of the study area, respectively). On the other hand, the years 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2020 had the highest VC (71, 71, 72, and 72% of the study area, respectively). The trend of the VC for the eastern basins of Afghanistan for the period from 2000 to 2021 was upward. High correlations between VC and soil moisture (R = 0.70, p = 0.0004), and precipitation (R = 0.5, p = 0.008) were found, whereas no significant correlation was found between VC and drought index MIDI. It was revealed that soil moisture, precipitation, land surface temperature, and area under meteorological drought conditions explained 45% of annual VC variability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0389.v1
Online: 14 April 2021 (16:06:14 CEST)
In this study, we have first studied the trend in meteorological data from the Harmaleh, Vanai and Farsesh stations in the 50-year period in the Dez catchment area. The meteorological data will be then forecasted using SWAT and Mann-Kendall. Forecasting the results in the Mann-Kendall and SWAT model has been done using the code written in MATLAB software and RCP (4.5, 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Studying the results of the trend in the data of meteorological stations in this catchment area indicated that these two parametric and non-parametric methods have been used to determine trends in meteorological data. The results of the parametric method are positive in all meteorological parameters. Non-parametric method over a period of 50 years shows the presence of trends in the data. The comparison on the forecasting results at maximum temperature suggested that during summer, we will see an increase in temperature compared to the ground state in all three forecasts. The results of the minimum temperature forecast show a decrease in the minimum increase during the winter and the precipitation forecast indicates that at the end of autumn (Nov) precipitation decreased by 20 mm in the Mann-Kendall and 4.5 RCP while RCP8.5 suggests the increase in precipitation compared to the ground state. Studying the runoff forecast results using SWOT show that at the end of winter (Feb) and almost all spring (Mar, Apr) a decrease of about 40%, 15% and 14% will be seen, respectively
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0123.v1
Subject: Biology, Anatomy & Morphology Keywords: Reference evapotranspiration; agro-meteorological; multifractal; scaling; cross-correlations; persistence
Online: 6 October 2020 (11:17:39 CEST)
This paper examined the multifractal properties of six acknowledged agro-meteorological parameters, such as reference evapotranspiration (ET0), wind speed (U), incoming solar radiation (SR), air temperature (T), air pressure (P), and relative air humidity (RH) of five stations in California, USA. The investigation of multifractality of datasets from stations with differing terrain conditions: Dagget, Bakersfield, Santa Maria, Los Angeles and San Diego using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis showed the existence of a long term persistence and multifractality irrespective of the location. The scaling exponents of SR and ET0 time series are found to be higher for stations with higher altitudes. Subsequently, this study proposed using the novel multifractal cross correlation (MFCCA) method to examine the multiscale-multifractal correlations properties between ET0 and other investigated variables. MFCCA could successfully capture the scale dependent association of different variables and the dynamics in the nature of their associations from seasonal to multi-annual time scale. The multifractal exponents of pressure and relative air humidity are consistently lower than the exponents of ET0, irrespective of station location. This study found that joint scaling exponent was nearly the average of scaling exponents of individual series in different pairs of variables. Additionally, the α-values of joint multifractal spectrum were lower than the α values of both of the individual spectra, validating two universal properties in the mutifractal cross correlation studies for agro-meteorological time series. The temporal evolution of cross-correlation showed similar pattern for all pair-wise associations involving ET0, except for the RH-ET0 link.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0274.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: meteorological drought; effective drought index; bangladesh; frequency of drought
Online: 24 September 2019 (12:17:36 CEST)
This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological droughts in Bangladesh during 1981–2015 using the Effective Drought Index (EDI). Monthly precipitation data for 36 years (1980-2015) obtained from 27 metrological stations, were used in this study. The EDI performance was evaluated for four sub-regions over the country through comparisons with historical drought records identified at the regional scale. Analysis at a regional level showed that EDI could reasonably detect the drought years/events during the study period. The study also revealed that the overall drought severity had increased during the past 35 y; the most significant increasing trend was observed in the central region. The characteristics (severity and duration) of drought were also analysed in terms of spatiotemporal evolution of the frequency of drought events. It was found that the western and central regions of the country are comparatively more vulnerable to drought. Moreover, the southwestern region is more prone to extreme drought, whereas the central region is more prone to severe droughts. In addition, the central region was more prone to extra-long-term droughts, while the coastal areas in the southwestern as well as in the central and north-western region were more prone to long-term droughts. The frequency of droughts in all categories significantly increased during the last quinquennial period (2011 to 2015). The seasonal analysis showed that the north-western areas were prone to extreme droughts during the Kharif (wet) and Rabi (dry) seasons. The central and northern regions were affected by recurring severe droughts in all cropping seasons. Further, the most significant increasing trend of the drought-affected area was observed within the central region, especially during the pre-monsoon (March-May) season. The results of this study can aid policymakers in the development of drought mitigation strategies in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201610.0068.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: particulate matter; dust storm; meteorological parameter; HYSPLIT; WRF/Chem
Online: 17 October 2016 (12:16:08 CEST)
Background: Long-range transport of dust aerosol has intense impacts on the atmospheric environment over wide areas. Methods: The annual and seasonal changes in meteorological parameters associated with the occurrence of dust storms were studied. The features of an intense dust storm and its transport characteristics were studied during June 7th to June 9th 2010 in Ahvaz city. Temporal and spatial distribution of Middle Eastern dust storm event was analyzed by models of HYSPLIT and WRF/Chem, and in- situ observations. Results: A disagreement between the occurrences of dust storms, temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, show the major source of dust storms over Ahvaz city are neighboring countries. Using HYSPLIT results, the dust particles are mainly transported from north western region of Iraq and eastern Syria to downward areas including Ahvaz city. The arrived Dust aerosols mixed with local anthropogenic emissions, led to the highest PM10 concentration of 4200 ppm. The model results were found to well reproduce temporal and spatial distribution of mineral dust concentrations according to in-situ measurements. Conclusion: The performance of WRF/Chem was acceptable for simulation of temporal and spatial distributions of dust storm events. Therefore, it can be taken as a reference in daily air quality forecasting.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0444.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Tonle Sap; meteorological drought; agricultural drought; drought index; drought duration
Online: 28 January 2022 (18:04:28 CET)
Rice production in the Tonle Sap basin is one of the main drivers for economic and social development in Cambodia. The Tonle Sap basin has experienced many different forms of disasters while more attention has been drawn to drought disaster. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of drought on agriculture and food security through a case study of the Baribo basin, a sub-basin of Tonle Sap basin, Cambodia. Ground observations and satellite-based products were used for drought assessment from 1985 to 2008 which was the period with relatively good data quality. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Vegetation Index (SVI) were selected for meteorological and agricultural droughts assessment, correspondingly. Both SPI and SVI consistently suggested that drought is a major natural hazard causing food insecurity in the target basin. The highest drought intensity (DI) and severity (DS) occurred between 1993-1994 and the longest drought duration (DD) occurred between 2002 and 2006. The most severe damage to rice production was in 2004, affecting about 46% of the total cultivated area. The analysis showed that drought duration had a strong relationship with the affected area growing rice as well as food insecurity in the Tonle Sap basin.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0297.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Psychiatry & Mental Health Studies Keywords: foehn wind; psychopathology; BSCL; mental health; weather; meteorological factors; climate change
Online: 17 August 2022 (04:04:41 CEST)
Psychiatric patients are particularly vulnerable to strong weather stimuli, such as foehn, a hot wind that occurs in the alps. However, there is a dearth of research regarding its impact on mental health. This study investigated the impact of foehn wind among patients of a psychiatric hospital located in a foehn area in the Swiss Alps. Analysis was based on anonymized datasets obtained from routine records on admission and discharge, including the Brief Symptom Checklist (BSCL) questionnaire, as well as sociodemographic parameters (age, sex, and diagnosis). Between 2013 and 2020 a total of 10,456 admission days and 10,575 discharge days were recorded. All meteorological data were extracted from the database of the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology of Switzerland. We estimated the effect of foehn on the BSCL items using a distributed lag model. Significant differences were found between foehn and non-foehn admissions in obsession-compulsion, Interpersonal Sensitivity, depression, Anxiety, Phobic Anxiety, Paranoid Ideation, and General Severity Index (GSI) (p <.05). Our findings suggest that foehn wind events may negatively affect specific mental health parameters in patients. More research is needed to fully understand the impact of foehn’s events on mental health.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0085.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Meteorological instruments; Drop size distribution; DSD; Huancayo Observatory; Peruvian Central Andes
Online: 7 February 2022 (12:51:55 CET)
The research presents the inter-comparison of atmospheric variables measured by 9 automatic meteorological stations. This set of data was compared with the measurements of other meteorological stations in order to standardize the values that must be adjusted when taken to different areas. The data of a set of a total of 9 GMX500, which measures conventional meteorological variables, and 10 WS100 sensors, which measures precipitation parameters. The automatic stations were set up at the Huancayo Observatory (Geophysical Institute of Peru) for a period of 5 months. The data set of GMX500 were evaluated comparing with the average of the 9 sensors and the WS100 was compared with a optical disdrometer Parsivel2. The temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall rate, and drop size distribution was evaluated. A pair of GMX500 sensors presented high data dispersion, it was found found that the errors came from a bad configuration; once this problem was solved, good agreement was archived, with low RMSE and high correlation. I was found that the WS100 sensors overestimate the precipitation with a percent bias close to 100% and the differences increase with the greater intensity of rain. The DSD retrieved by WS100 have unrealistic behavior with higher concentrations in diameters of 1 mm and 5 mm, in addition to a flattened curve.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0123.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geophysics Keywords: IWV; GNSS; iGMAS; RBMC; meteorological data; MODIS; radiosonde; Rio de Janeiro
Online: 11 October 2019 (03:52:06 CEST)
There is crescent demand for knowledge improvement of the integrated water vapor (IWV) distribution in regions affected by heat islands that are associated with extreme rainfall events such as in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ). This work assessed the suitability and distribution of IWV in the MARJ using products from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and radiosonde. GNSS data were collected by the tracking station named RDJN, from the cooperation of the International GNSS Monitoring and Assessment System (iGMAS) and the National Observatory of Brazil (Observatório Nacional - ON), and the tracking stations ONRJ, RIOD, and RJCG belonging to the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring (RBMC) in the period of January 2015–August 2018. High variability of the near surface air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) were observed among eight meteorological sites considered. The mean T differences between sites, up to 4.4 °C, led to mean differences as high as 3.1 K for weighted mean temperature (Tm) and hence 0.83 mm for IWV differences. The performance of the MODIS MOD07 and MYD07 products provided a reasonably good representation of the mean spatial distribution of IWV, especially during the daylight passages of the satellites TERRA and AQUA. Local grid points of MODIS IWV estimates had relatively good agreement with the GNSS-derived IWV, with mean differences from -2.4–1.1 mm considering only daytime passages of the satellites TERRA and AQUA. During nighttime, MODIS underestimated IWV (from -9–-3 mm) with respect to GNSS, due to attenuation of IR radiation by clouds. A contrasting behavior was found in the radiosonde IWV estimates compared with the estimates from GNSS. There were dry biases of 1.4 mm (3.7% lower than expected) by radiosonde IWV during the daytime considering that all other estimates were unbiased and the differences between IWV GNSS and IWV RADS were consistent. Based on the IWV comparisons between radiosonde and GNSS at nighttime, the atmosphere over the radiosonde site is about 1.2 (2.3) mm wetter than over RIOD (RDJN) station. The long time series of the comparisons between IWVRDJN and IWVRIOD showed that the highest values of IWV occurred from the afternoon to nocturnal hours. Further, the atmosphere over the site RIOD was consistently about 1 mm wetter than over RDJN. These results showed the feasibility of the iGMAS RDJN station data compared with the RBMC, MODIS, and radiosonde data to investigate IWV in a region with occurrence of heat islands, and the peculiar physiographic and meteorological characteristics as in the MARJ. This work recommended the usage of complete meteorological station data collocated near every GNSS receiver aiming improvements of local GNSS IWV estimates and serving as additional support for operational numerical assimilation, weather forecast, and nowcast of extreme rainfall events.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0150.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: Quantitative Precipitation Estimates; Validation; PERSIANN-CCS; meteorological radar; Satellite Rainfall Estimates
Online: 9 May 2018 (15:37:29 CEST)
QPEs (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates) obtained from remote sensing or ground-based radars could complement or even be an alternative to rain gauge readings. However, to be used in operational applications, a validation process has to be carried out, usually by comparing their estimates with those of a rain gauges network. In this paper, the accuracy of two QPEs are evaluated for three extreme precipitation events in the last decade in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The first QPE is PERSIANN-CCS, a satellite-based QPE. The second is a meteorological radar with Doppler capabilities that works in the C band. Pixel-to-point comparisons are made between the values offered by the QPEs and those obtained by two networks of rain gauges. The results obtained indicate that both QPEs were well below the rain gauge values, especially in extreme rainfall time slots. There seems to be a weak linear association between the value of the discrepancies and the precipitation value of the QPEs. It does not seem that radar is more accurate than PERSIANN-CCS, despite its larger spatial resolution and its commonly higher effectiveness. The main conclusion is that neither PERSIANN-CCS nor radar, without empirical calibration, are acceptable QPEs for the real-time monitoring of meteorological extremes in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0002.v1
Subject: Keywords: cardiovascular disease; human reproduction system; meteorological factor; SARS-COV-2; antigen testing
Online: 1 September 2020 (09:46:24 CEST)
A COVID-19 disease threatens the population and the economies of the countries significantly. Till now, this pandemic has affected 215 counties or territories. Unavailability of vaccine is the primary concern for the society. To avoid the spread of this disease, social isolation must be preserved and the inter and intra-population movement must be minimized. To reduce the possibility of transmission, the categorization of regions based on susceptibility to COVID-19 infection is a must.Due to the unavailability of a large amount of paper collection for this novel COVID-19 diseases, we used current literature available on a COVID-19 susceptibility of the diabetic patient, human reproductivity, hemodialysis patient’s, pregnant women and meteorological factors and geographical location. Countries in the cold region are more susceptible to the risk of COVID-19 transmission. There was no evidence of the spread of this disease from non-respiratory bodies. Diabetic patients and pregnant women were found to be more susceptible to COVID-19 infection. Anosmia was observed in the majority of the COVID-19 infected cases in European countries. No evidence indicates COVID-19's impact on the human reproductive system explicitly. No cases of vertical transmission of this disease have been observed until now. All the studies available till now is the small scale study. Correlation with something always does not mean causation. There are certain factor like pollution level, temperature Diurnal temperature range, geographical factor, humidity, pollution level, wind speed, population density, medical healthcare facilities social and political factor plays a critical role in transmitting the SARS-COV-2 virus. Besides the adverse effects, it has taught us to shed our selfish goals and to promote the welfare of all.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0347.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: COVID-19; Meteorological variables; Spearman rank and Kendall correlation; Social engineering; Bangladesh
Online: 28 June 2020 (20:02:34 CEST)
COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, is responsible for widespread mortality and economic loss across almost 212 countries. The distribution of disease prevalence is, however, uneven and likely dependent on the range of human behavior and/or the pathogen and environmental variables. Here in this research we examined the correlation between daily and total COVID-19 case reports from Bangladesh and meteorological variables (average temperature, average humidity, and average wind speed) against one another using Spearman rank and Kendall correlation tests to highlight significant meteorological variables in relation to COVID-19. The tests revealed that both temperature and humidity had a non-significant correlation with COVID-19 transmission amid epicenter (EC) and non-epicenter (NEC) areas. However, a weak (KCC: 0.168, p < 0.05; SCC: 0.271, p < 0.05) correlation was found for temperature in ECs. Wind speed showed moderate to strong correlation in ECs with a very high statistical significance to both daily new cases [(KCC: 0.494, p < 0.01); (SCC: 0.689, p < 0.01)] and total cases [(KCC: 0.426, p < 0.01); (SCC: 0.617, p < 0.01)]. The COVID-19 transmission was found to have a weak (KCC: 0.354, p < 0.01) to moderate (SCC: 0.465, p < 0.01) correlation with daily new cases; however, a moderate (KCC: 0.497, p < 0.01) to strong (SCC: 0.712, p < 0.01) correlation with total cases was found in NECs. The results suggest that temperature and humidity have little influence on COVID-19 transmission, but wind speed may have some influence. Countries should prioritize social engineering to modify human behavior in order to combat the spread of COVID-19 and future pandemics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0132.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: multinomial logistic regression; K-means clustering; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; meteorological variables
Online: 5 April 2021 (12:49:33 CEST)
The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported an extremely high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported too few COVID-19 related cases and mortality. In this paper, the factors that could affect the transmission of COVID-19 and its risk level in different counties have been determined and analyzed. Using Pearson Correlation, K-means clustering, and several classification models, the most critical ones were determined. Results showed that mean temperature, percent of people below poverty, percent of adults with obesity, air pressure, percentage of rural areas, and percent of uninsured people in each county were the most significant and effective attributes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0291.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: Effective Drought Index (EDI); meteorological drought; climate change; GCMs under RCP scenarios; future drought projections; Bangladesh
Online: 26 September 2019 (03:49:09 CEST)
The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and end of this century (2070–2099) relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase of rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201907.0351.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Keywords: evaporation; meteorological parameters; Gaussian process regression; support vector regression; machine learning modeling; hydrology; prediction; data science; hydroinformatics
Online: 31 July 2019 (10:58:29 CEST)
Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon; therefore, the data-based methods can be used to have precise estimations of it. In this regard, in the present study, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Nearest-Neighbor (IBK), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to estimate the pan evaporation (PE) in the meteorological stations of Golestan Province, Iran. For this purpose, meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W) and sunny hours (S) collected from the Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The outcome indicates that the optimum state of Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with the error values of 1.521, 1.244, and 1.254, the Nearest-Neighbor (IBK) with error values of 1.991, 1.775, and 1.577, Random Forest (RF) with error values of 1.614, 1.337, and 1.316, and Support Vector Regression (SVR) with error values of 1.55, 1.262, and 1.275, respectively, have more appropriate performances in estimating PE. It found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W, and S had the most accurate performances and proposed for precise estimation of PE. Due to the high rate of evaporation in Iran and the lack of measurement instruments, the findings of the current study indicated that the PE values might be estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters accurately.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0495.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Analysis Keywords: coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19); analysis; modeling; recommendations; surveillance; social media analytics; meteorological effects; image processing; business and economy
Online: 24 August 2020 (02:54:47 CEST)
COVID-19 has created anxiety not only in individuals but also in health organizations, and countries worldwide. Not a single industry is left un-influenced and loss is being estimated in billions of dollars. The widespread of this pandemic disease has challenged researchers all over the world. Some of the researchers are working to invent its cure while, others are applying computing technologies to stop its spread, by analyzing and identifying patterns for prediction and forecasting. This is by no doubt the hottest area of research for the last 100 years. This survey has targeted the research published in computing sub-domains to combat the pandemic. The survey has clustered the scientific efforts into logical groups: surveillance, metrological effects, social media analytics, image processing and business and economy, analysis and modeling. It will serve as a leading source for the followings: researchers who want to identify what has been achieved in different computing sub-domains, those who need fresh authenticated datasets openly accessible for different research contexts and what are future directions in this area of research. The findings of analysis and modeling can be also useful for government agencies who want to set priorities and formulate policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0629.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: hydro-meteorological factors; large-scale atmospheric circulation systems; South Asia monsoon; streamflows; source region of the Yangtze River
Online: 26 October 2018 (11:52:13 CEST)
Studying hydro-meteorological factors variations and its links to large-scale atmospheric circulation systems can facilitate the understanding of the hydrological processes and sustainable water resources management in the source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR). Currently, researches mostly focused on the temporal and spatial variation characteristics in hydro-meteorological factors; however, researches on the hydro-meteorological variations and its links to large-scale atmospheric circulation systems in the SRYR are scarce. Based on long-term hydro-meteorological and reanalysis data, this research investigated multiscale variations of hydro-meteorological factors and its links to large-scale atmospheric circulation characteristic indices during 1957~2012 in the SRYR. The results showed that the amounts of streamflows and precipitation in the SRYR declined during the 1990s. Since the 2000s, the amounts of streamflows and precipitation had increased significantly climate in the SRYR. The change trends of precipitation and streamflows in the SRYR are synergetic at annual and seasonal scales, and have three significant periods, namely 3~5 years, 15–20 years and 30–40 years. The South Asia monsoon (SAM) plays a relatively more important role in the hydro-meteorological factors changes in the SRYR. The relative contributions of SAM to streamflows and precipitation changes were 83.6% and 78%, respectively. During the driest (wettest) year, the SAM is relatively weak (strong), and brings less (more) southwest airflow into the SRYR, less (more) precipitation and streamflows will be generated in the SRYR.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0213.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Remote Sensing Techniques; Tropospheric NO2 Column Retrieval; Air Mass Factor (AMF); Meteorological Reformulation; MAX-DOAS measurements; Satellite Informatics
Online: 10 October 2018 (10:08:58 CEST)
Improving air quality and reducing human exposure to unhealthy levels of airborne chemicals are important global missions, particularly in China. Satellite remote sensing offers a powerful tool to examine regional trends in NO2, thus providing a direct measure of key parameters that strongly affect surface air quality. To accurately resolve spatial gradients in NO2 concentration using satellite observations and thus understand local and regional aspects of air quality, a priori input data at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to account for pixel-to-pixel variability in the characteristics of the land and atmosphere are required. In this paper, we adapt the Berkeley High Resolution product (BEHR v3.0A, v3.0B and v3.0C) and meteorological outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to describe column NO2 in southern China. The BEHR approach is particularly useful for places with large spatial variabilities and terrain height differences such as China. We retrieved tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (TVCD) within part of southern China, for four seasons of 2015, based upon satellite datasets from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Retrieval results are validated by comparing with MAX-DOAS tropospheric column measurements conducted in Guangzhou. BEHR retrieval algorithms are more consistent with MAX-DOAS measurements than OMI-NASA retrieval, opening new windows into research questions that require high spatial resolution, for example retrieving NO2 vertical column and ground pollutant concentration in China and other countries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0476.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: remotely sensed drought indices (RSDIs); Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); meteorological drought; Skill Score (SS); Yellow River basin (YRB)
Online: 19 November 2018 (17:26:37 CET)
Due to the advantages of wide coverage and continuity, remotely sensed data are widely used for large-scale drought monitoring to compensate the deficiency and discontinuity of meteorological data. However, few researches have focused on the capability of various remotely sensed drought indices (RSDIs) for representing the spatio-temporal variations of the meteorological droughts. In this study, five RSDIs, namely Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Modified Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (MTVDI) and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI) were calculated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly NDVI and LST. The monthly NDVI and LST data were filtered by Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filtering method. Meteorological station-based drought index represented by Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was compared with RSDIs. And the dimensionless Skill Score (SS) method was adopted to identify the spatiotemporally optimal RSDIs for presenting the meteorological droughts in the Yellow River basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2015. The results indicated that (1) RSDIs revealed a decreasing trend to the overall YRB consistent with SPEI except for in winter, and different variations of seasonal trends spatially; (2) the optimal RSDIs in spring, summer, autumn and winter were VHI, TCI, MTVDI and VCI, respectively, and the average correlation coefficient between the RSDIs and SPEI was 0.577 (=0.05); (3) different RSDIs have a 0–3 months’ time-lags compared with meteorological drought index.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0235.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: database; disaster prevention; disaster risk reduction (DRR); climate change adaptation (CCA); stakeholders; nature-based solutions (NBS); mountain; hydro-meteorological risks
Online: 9 December 2020 (16:48:34 CET)
In the context of global changes, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) increasingly draw attention as a possible way to reduce disaster risk associated with extreme hydro-meteorological events while providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits at the same time. The PHUSICOS platform is dedicated to gather and analyse relevant NBSs used to reduce disaster risk associated with extreme hydro-meteorological events in mountainous and hilly lands. To design the platform, an in-depth review of 11 existing platforms has been performed. The platform currently references 152 literature NBS cases and is continuously enriched with demonstrator sites through the contribution of NBS community. The platform also proposes a qualitative assessment of the NBSs collected according to 15 criteria related with five ambits: disaster risk reduction, technical and economical feasibility, environment, society and local economy. This paper presents the structure of the platform and a first analysis of its content.