ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1197.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: TEVAR; long-term outcome; MACCE
Online: 16 August 2023 (09:17:03 CEST)
Background: To analyze long-term outcomes in patients undergoing thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR). Methods: All consecutive 97 patients undergoing TEVAR between September 2014 and September 2022 were included in the study. Primary outcome was long-term incidence of overall death and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). Results: Mean age was 70.4 years, and 22(23.2%) had cerebrovascular disease (CBVD). A total of 49(51.6%) of patients had prior cardiac surgery intervention and 8(8.5%) had prior aortic valve replacement. Twenty-eight patients(28.8%) presented with aortic dissection, 60(61.8%) had aortic aneurysm, 4(4.1%) had intramural hematoma, and 5(5.1%) had other presentations. An emergent procedure was performed in 6(6.2%) patients, an urgent procedure in 37(38.1%) patients and 54(55.7%) patients had an elective procedure. Intraoperatively, 78.3% had percutaneous TEVAR, 5.1% had ministernotomy TEVAR, while 10.3% had concomitant full sternotomy TEVAR repair. Hospital mortality was 7 patients(7.2%). At 8-years follow-up, 76% were alive, 25.8% had MACCE, 21.6% were diagnosed with endoleaks(13 patients type II and 2 patients type 1) while 10.3% un-derwent repeat intervention. Conclusions: This single center experience in patients undergoing TEVAR evidenced good short and long-term survival and MACCE. Nonetheless, almost half of the patients underwent an ur-gent/emergent procedure, clinical results were favourable for TEVAR.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0310.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: Variola major; phylogeographical analysis; long-term calibrations; short- term calibrations
Online: 14 December 2020 (09:21:34 CET)
In order to reconstruct the origin and pathways of variola virus (VARV) dispersion, we analyzed 47 VARV isolates available in public databases and their SNPs. The mean substitution rate of the whole genomes was 9.41x10-6 (95%HPD:8.5-11.3x10-6) substitutions/site/year. The time of the tree root was estimated to be a mean 68 years (95%HPD:60.5–75.9). The phylogeographical analysis showed that the Far East and India were the most probable locations of the tree root and of the inner nodes, respectively, whereas for the outer nodes it corresponded to the sampling locations. The Bayesian Skyline plot showed that the effective number of infections started to grow exponentially in 1915-1920, peaked in the 1940s, and then decreased to zero. Our results suggests that the VARV major strains circulating between 1940s-1970s probably shared a common ancestor originated in the Far East; subsequently moved to India, which became the center of its dispersion to eastern and southern Africa, and then to central Africa and the Middle East, probably following the movements of people between south-eastern Asia and the other places with a common colonial history. These findings may help to explain the controversial reconstructions of the history of VARV obtained using long- and short- term calibrations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0011.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: long covid; symptom cluster; persistent symptoms; long-term; Mexico; survey
Online: 1 June 2021 (09:44:47 CEST)
Recently, several reports have emerged describing the long-term consequences of COVID-19 that may affect multiple systems, suggesting its chronicity. As further research is needed, we conducted a longitudinal observational study to report the prevalence and associated risk factors of long-term health consequences of COVID-19 by symptom clusters in patients discharged from the Temporary COVID-19 Hospital (TCH) in Mexico City. Self-reported clinical symptom data were collected via telephone calls over 90 days post-discharge. Among 4670 patients discharged from the TCH, we identified 45 symptoms across eight symptom clusters (neurological; mood disorders; systemic; respiratory; musculoskeletal; ear, nose, and throat; dermatological; and gastrointestinal). We observed that the neurological, dermatological, and mood disorder symptom clusters persisted in >30% of patients at 90 days post-discharge. Although most symptoms decreased in frequency between day 30 and 90, alopecia and the dermatological symptom cluster significantly increased (p<0·00001). Women were more prone than men to develop long-term symptoms and invasive mechanical ventilation also increased the frequency of symptoms at 30-days post-discharge. Overall, we observed that symptoms often persisted regardless of disease severity. We hope these findings will help promote public health strategies that ensure equity in the access to solutions focused on the long-term consequences of COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0228.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: long-term care; workplace management; Synergy Model
Online: 4 July 2023 (12:13:49 CEST)
Background: There are ongoing workforce challenges with the delivery of long-term care (LTC), such as staffing decisions based on arbitrary standards. The Synergy tool, a resident-centered approach to staffing, pro-vides objective, real-time acuity and dependency scores (Synergy scores) for residents. The purpose of this study was to implement and evaluate the impact of the Synergy tool on LTC delivery. Methods: A longitudinal mixed methods study took place within two publicly-funded LTC homes in British Columbia, Canada. Quantitative data included weekly Synergy scores for residents (24 weeks), monthly aggregated resident falls data (18 months) and a six-month economic evaluation. Qualitative data were gathered from family caregivers and thematically analyzed. Results: Quantitative findings from Synergy scores revealed considerable variability for resident acuity/dependency needs within and across units; and falls decreased during implementation. The six-month economic evaluation demonstrated some cost savings by comparing Synergy tool training and implementation costs with savings from resident fall rates reductions. Qualitative analyses yielded three positive impacts themes (improved care delivery, better communication, and improved resident-family-staff relationships), and two negative structural themes (language barrier and staff shortages). Conclusions: The Synergy tool provides useful data for enhancing a ‘fit’ between resident needs and available staff.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0201.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biophysics Keywords: Waves; Protein Synthesis; Resonance; Long Term Memory
Online: 12 December 2022 (12:11:00 CET)
Conclusive evidence that specic long-term memory formation relies on den- dritic growth and structural synaptic changes has proven elusive. Connec- tionist models of memory based on this hypothesis are confronted with the so-called plasticity stability dilemma or catastrophic interference. Other fun- damental limitations of these models are the feature binding problem, the speed of learning, the capacity of the memory, the localisation in time of an event and the problem of spatio-temporal pattern generation. This paper suggests that the generalisation and long-term memory mechanisms are not correlated. Only the development and the improvement of the feature ex- tractors in the cortex involves structural synaptic changes. We suggest the long-term memory has a separate mechanism which involves protein synthe- sis to encode the information into the structure of these proteins. A model of memory should be capable of explaining the dierence between memorisation and learning. Learning has in our approach two dierent mechanisms. The generalisation in the brain is handled by the proper development of the links between neurons via synapses. The Hebbian learning rule could be applied only for this part of learning. Storing an internal ring pattern involves, in our approach, a new mechanism which puts the information regarding this ring pattern into the structure of special proteins in such a way that it can be retrieved later. The hypotheses introduced in this article includes a physiological assumption which has not been yet verified because it is not currently experimentally accessible. Keywords: Waves, Protein Synthesis, Resonance, Long Term Memory Preprint submitted to Neural Networks
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0054.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: Cameroon; rainfall; long-term variability; trend tests
Online: 6 October 2022 (08:17:50 CEST)
The rainfall study in the long term is essential for climatic change understanding and socioeconomic development. The main goal of this study is to explore the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in different time scales (seasonal and annual) in Cameroon. The Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests were applied to analyze the precipitation variability. On temporal plan, the different regions of Cameroon have recorded significant drops in annual rainfall that Pet-titt's test generally situates around the 1970s. The decreases observed for the northern part of Cameroon regions are between –5.4% (Adamawa) and –7.4% (Far North). Those of west-ern part regions oscillate between –7.5% (South-West) and –12.5% (West). The southern part of Cameroon regions recorded decreases varying between –4.3% (East) and –5.9% (Center). On spatial plan, the divisions of the northern, western and southern parts of Cameroon respectively recorded after the 1970s (a pivotal period in the evolution of precipitation on temporal plan), a precipitation decrease towards the South, the South-West and the West. This study's findings could be helpful for planning and managing water resources in Cameroon.
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0410.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: long-term care, technology, therapy, virtual reality
Online: 20 September 2018 (13:34:02 CEST)
In this study, 6 residents of a long-term care facility were asked to try on Virtual Reality glasses and report their first experiences with Virtual Reality. The results show that Virtual Reality is of great interest to elderly residents of in-patient long-term care facilities. The wearing period was longer than expected and no symptoms of cyber sickness occurred. For the residents it was exciting to explore the virtual environments. Austrian destinations, nature scenes in the mountains and forests but also trips to the zoo, the museum, in churches or even densely populated areas like shopping streets or train stations would be places for the residents, they would like to explore virtually. Far-off destinations such as Rio de Janeiro or the Caribbean are more of an exception. Biographically relevant places such as the parental home or the location of their wedding were not named. Concerning the usability, an adjustment of the VR glasses is necessary for a longer-term use in any case.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1145.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Neuroscience And Neurology Keywords: muscarinic acetylcholine receptors; hippocampal CA3 pyramidal cells; mossy fiber synapses; frequency facilitation; long-term depression; long-term potentiation
Online: 14 July 2023 (09:24:01 CEST)
Muscarinic acetylcholine receptors are well-known for their crucial involvement in hippocampus-dependent learning and memory, but the exact roles of the various receptor subtypes (M1-M5) are still not fully understood. Here, we studied how M1 and M3 receptors affect plasticity at the mossy fiber (MF)-CA3 pyramidal cell synapse. In hippocampal slices from M1/M3 receptor double knockout (M1/M3-dKO) mice, the signature short-term plasticity of the MF-CA3 synapse was not significantly affected. However, the rather unique, NMDA receptor-independent and presynaptic form of long-term potentiation (LTP) of this synapse was much larger in M1/M3-deficient slices compared to wild type slices, in both field potential and whole-cell recordings. Consistent with its presynaptic origin, induction of MF-LTP strongly enhanced the excitatory drive onto single CA3 pyramidal cells, with the effect being more pronounced in M1/M3-dKO cells. In an earlier study , we found that deletion of M2 receptors in mice disinhibits MF-LTP in a similar fashion, suggesting that endogenous acetylcholine employs both M1/M3 and M2 receptors to constrain MF-LTP. Importantly, such synergism was not observed for MF long-term depression (LTD). Low-frequency stimulation, which reliably induced LTD of MF synapses in control slices, failed to do so in M1/M3-dKO slices and gave rise to LTP instead. In striking contrast, loss of M2 augmented LTD when compared to control slices. Taken together, our data demonstrate convergence of M1/M3 and M2 receptors on MF-LTP, but functional divergence on MF-LTD, the net effect being well-balanced bidirectional plasticity of the MF-CA3 pyramidal cell synapse.
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: CA3-CA1 synapses; NMDA; AMPA; systems biology; multiscale modeling; synaptic plasticity; long term potentiation; long term depression; hippocampus
Online: 8 January 2021 (13:17:31 CET)
Inside hippocampal circuits, neuroplasticity events that individual cells may undergo during synaptic transmissions occur in the form of Long Term Potentiation (LTP) and Long Term Depression (LTD). The high density of NMDA receptors expressed on the surface of the dendritic CA1 spines confers to hippocampal CA3-CA1 synapses, the ability to easily undergo NMDA-mediated LTP and LTD, that is essential for some forms of explicit learning in mammals. Providing a comprehensive kinetic model that can be used for running computer simulations of the synaptic transmission process is currently a major challenge. Here, we propose a compartmentalized kinetic model for CA3-CA1 synaptic transmission. Our major goal was to tune our model in order to predict the functional impact caused by disease associated variants of NMDA receptors related to severe cognitive impairment. Indeed, for variants Glu413Gly and Cys461Phe, our model predicts negative shifts in the glutamate affinity and changes in the kinetic behavior, consistent with experimental data. These results pinpoint to the predictive power of this multiscale viewpoint, which aims to integrate the quantitative kinetic description of large interaction networks typical of system biology approaches with a focus on the quality of few, key, molecular interactions typical of structural biology ones.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.2174.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Time-series; data availability; aggregation; long-term analyses
Online: 1 September 2023 (10:10:24 CEST)
Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archives provide ever-increasing amounts of satellite data for studying land cover and land use change (LCLUC) over the past four decades. However, the availability of cloud-, shadow-, and snow-free observations varies spatially and temporally due to climate and satellite data acquisition schemes. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity poses a major issue for some time-series analysis approaches, but can be addressed with pixel-based compositing that generates temporally equidistant cloud-free or near-cloud free synthetic images. Although much consideration is given to methods identifying the ‘best’ pixel value for each composite, determining the aggregation period receives less attention and is often done arbitrary, or based on expert intuition. Here, we evaluated data compositing windows ranging from five days to one year for 1984-2021 Landsat and 2015-2021 Sentinel‑2 time series across Europe. We considered separate and joint use of both data archives and analyzed spatio-temporal availability of composites during each calendar year and pixel-specific growing season. We reported mean annual composites’ availability investigating differences among biogeographical regions, checked feasibility of pan‑European analyses for three LCLUC applications based on annual, monthly and 10-day composites, and analyzed the shortest feasible compositing window ensuring ≥50% temporal data availability and interpolation of the remaining composites for individual years and across a variety of medium- and long‑term time windows. Our results highlighted low data coverage in the 1980s, 1990s, and in 2012, as well as spatial variability in data availability driven by climate and orbit overlaps, which altogether impact spatio-temporal consistency of medium- and long-term time series, limiting feasibility of some LCLUC analyses. We demonstrated that prior to 2011 monthly composites ensured overall 50-62% data coverage for each calendar year, and ~75% afterwards, with further increase to ~82% when Landsat and Sentinel-2 were combined. Temporal consistency of monthly composites was overall low and temporal interpolation augmenting up to 50% missing data each year and across a time window of interest, ensured feasibility of analyses. Applications based on shorter than monthly composites were challenging without joining Landsat and Sentinel‑2 archives after 2015, and beyond the Mediterranean biogeographical region. Using pixel-specific growing season data typically boosted data availability in most geographies and diminished most of the latitudinal differences, but feasibility of complete time series with sub-monthly compositing windows was still restricted to the most recent years, and required data interpolation. Overall, our analyses provided a detailed assessment of Landsat and Sentinel-2 data availability over Europe, and based on selected application examples, highlighted often lacking spatio-temporal consistency of time series with sub-monthly compositing windows and long-time periods, which might hinder feasibility of some LCLUC applications.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0060.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: Human Memory; Long-term Memory; Episodic; Implicit; Explicit
Online: 2 April 2021 (12:02:21 CEST)
Memory is probably one of the most complex cognitive functions of the human, and in many years, thousands of studies have helped us to better recognize this brain function. One of the reference textbooks in neuroscience, which has also elaborated on the memory function, is written by Prof. Kandel and his colleagues. In this book, I encountered a number of ambiguities when it was explaining the memory system. Here, I am sharing those points, either to find an answer for them, or to let them be a suggestion for our future works. Prof. Kandel has spent most of his meritorious lifetime on studying the memory system; however, the brain is extremely complex, and as a result, we still have many years to comprehensively understand the neural mechanisms of brain functions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0185.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: atmosphere; aerosol; background; particle size; long term; Mediterranean
Online: 8 February 2021 (10:56:35 CET)
The Eastern Mediterranean is a highly populated area with air quality problems as well where climate change already is noticed by higher temperatures and changing precipitation pattern. The anthropogenic aerosol affects health and changing concentra-tions and properties of the atmospheric aerosol affect radiation balance and clouds. Continuous long-term observations are essential in assessing the influence of anthro-pogenic aerosols on climate and health. We present 6 years of observations from Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO), a new station located at the south west tip of Pelo-ponnese, Greece. The two sites at NEO, were evaluated to show the influence of the local meteorology but also to assess the general background aerosol possible. It was found that the background aerosol was originated from aged European aerosols and was strongly influenced by biomass burning, fossil fuel combustion, and industry. When subsiding into the boundary layer, local sources contributed in the air masses moving south. Mesoscale meteorology determined the diurnal variation of aerosol properties such as mass and number by means of typical sea breeze circulation, giving rise to pronounced morning and evening peaks in pollutant levels. While synoptic scale meteorology, mainly large-scale air mass transport and precipitation, strongly influenced the season-ality of the aerosol properties.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0640.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: long-term energy storage; fossil fuels; energy transition
Online: 26 July 2020 (16:38:35 CEST)
Great Britain’s stocks of coal, natural gas, and petroleum have seen major changes to the levels of stored energy over the years 2005 to 2019, a reduction of 200 TWh (35%) from 570 TWh to 370 TWh. The transformation of its electrical system over this timeframe saw a reduction in coal generation, leading to a corresponding reduction of the levels of stockpiled coal of 85 TWh (68%), partially offset by an increase in the stocks of biomass for electrical generation. The reduction in natural gas storage of 24 TWh (44%) was primarily due to the closure of Britain’s only long-term seasonal natural gas storage facility in January 2018. This was partially offset by the construction of medium-term natural gas storage facilities and the use of LNG storage in the years preceding its closure. For stocks of crude oil and oil products the reduction was 35 TWh (21%), linked to the overall reduction in demand.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0180.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: long term survival; Glioblastoma; IDH; EGFR; Ki67; p53
Online: 16 October 2019 (08:30:25 CEST)
Background: Glioblastomas (GBM) is generally burdened, to date, by a dismal prognosis, although Long Term Survivors have a relatively significant incidence. Our specific aim was to determine the exact impact of many surgery-, patient- and tumor-related variable on Survival parameters. Methods: The surgical, radiological and clinical outcomes of patients have been retrospectively reviewed for the present study. All the patients have been operated on in our Institution and classified according their Overall Survival in LTS (Long Term Survivors) and STS (Short Term Survivors). A thorough Review of our surgical series was conducted to compare the oncologic results of the patients in regards to 1. Surgical , 2. Molecular, and 3.Treatment related features. Results: A total of 177 patients were included in the final cohort. Extensive statistical analysis by means of univariate, multivariate and survival analyses disclosed a survival advantage for patients presenting a younger age, a smaller lesion and a better functional status at presentation. From the Histochemical point of view, Ki67(%) was the strongest predictor of better oncologic outcomes. A stepwise analysis of variance outlines the existence of 8 prognostic subgroups according to the molecular patterns of Ki67 overexpression and EGFR, p53 and IDH mutations. Conclusions: On the ground of our statistical analyses we can affirm that the following factors were significant predictors of survival advantage: KPS, Age, Volume of the lesion, Motor disorder at presentation, a Ki67 overexpression. A fine molecular profiling is feasible to precisely stratify the prognosis of GBM patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1537.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Pollution Keywords: Long-term Observations; Trace Elements; Seasonal variation; Atmospheric pollutants
Online: 25 July 2023 (10:17:40 CEST)
The atmospheric concentrations of sodium, aluminum, silicon, sulphur, chlorine, potassium, calcium, titanium, vanadium, chromium, manganese, iron, nickel, copper, zinc, bromine and lead were measured in air filters at the Finnish Meteorological Institute station, in Helsinki, Finland, during a period of 44 years (1962-2005). The mean annual concentrations were calculated and are presented from the lowest values to the highest ones Cr<Ni<Ti<Br<V<Mn<Cu<Zn<Cl<Al<Fe<K<Ca<Na<Pb<Si<S. Most of the elements (Fe, Si, Ti, K, Ca, Zn, Br, Pb, V, Ni, S, Cr, Na, Al, Cl) present higher values during spring and winter season while in summer the elements (Ti, Ca, S, Na) are found in higher concentrations. There is a strong correlation between the elements (V-Ni, Si-Pb, Fe-Ca, V-Cr, Si-K, K-Ca, Fe-Ti, K-Na, Si-Ca, V-S), indicating their common source. The identification of the sources of trace elements was performed based on positive matrix factorization analysis, using SoFi software. Four PM sources were identified: road dust (due to usage of leaded fuel), heavy oil combustion/secondary sulfates, traffic emissions and natural dust (soil). For the total of 44 years studied, significant decreases in concentrations were observed for all trace elements, most of which were over 50%: Na (-74%), Al (-86%), Si (-88%), S (-82%), K (-82%), Ca (-89%), Ti (-80%), V (-89%), Cr (-82%), Mn (-77%), Fe (-77%), Ni (-61%), Zn (-72%), Pb (-95%). The current data are consistent with previous air studies covering the whole territory of Finland. Finally, a significant decline has been observed in the majority of the elemental concentrations since the end of 70s, underlying the effectiveness of different environmental policies that have been applied during the last decades.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0122.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: peri-implantitis; electrolytic cleaning; air abrasive; augmentation; long term
Online: 6 July 2021 (08:06:56 CEST)
Background: this RCT assesses the 18 months clinical outcomes after regenerative therapy of periimplantitis lesions using either an electrolytic method (EC) to remove biofilms or a combination of powder spray and electrolytic method (PEC). Materials and Methods: Twenty-four patients (24 implants) suffering from periimplantitis were randomly treated by EC or PEC followed by augmentation and submerged healing. Probing pocket depth (PPD), Bleeding on Probing (BoP), suppuration and standardized radiographs were assessed before surgery (T0), 6 months after augmentation (T1), 6 (T2) and 12 (T3) months after replacement of the restoration. Results: Mean of PPD changed from 5.8 ± 1.6 mm (T0) to 3.1 ± 1.4 mm (T3). While BoP and suppuration at T0 was 100 % BoP decreased at T2 to 36.8 % and at T3 to 35.3 %. Suppuration could be found 10.6% at T2 and 11.8% at T3. Radiologic bone level measured from the implant shoulder to the first visible bone to implant contact was 4.9 ± 1.9 mm at me-sial and 4.4 ± 2.2 mm at distal sites (T0) and 1.7 ± 1.7 mm and 1.5 ± 17 mm at T3. Conclusions: Significant radiographic bone fill and improvement of clinical parameters were demonstrated 18 months after therapy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0134.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Cardiac arrest; normothermia; EEG; SSEP; GWR; long term predictors
Online: 8 January 2021 (10:26:27 CET)
Introduction Early prediction of long term outcomes in patients resuscitated after cardiac arrest (CA) is still challenging. Guidelines suggested a multimodal approach combining multiple predictors. We evaluated whether the combination of the electroencephalography (EEG) reactivity, somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEPs) cortical complex and Gray to White matter ratio (GWR) on brain computed tomography (CT) at different temperatures could predict survival and good outcome at hospital discharge and after six months. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study including consecutive adult, non-traumatic patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital CA who remained comatose on admission to our intensive care unit from 2013 to 2017. We acquired SSEPs and EEGs during the treatment at 36°C and after rewarming at 37°C, Gray to white matter ratio (GWR) was calculated on the brain computed tomography scan performed within six hours of the hospital admission. We primarily hypothesized that SSEP was associated with favorable functional outcome at distance and secondarily that SSEP provides independent information from EEG and CT. Outcomes were evaluated using the Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) scale at six months from discharge. Results Of 171 resuscitated patients, 75 were excluded due to missing of data or uninterpretable neurophysiological findings. EEG reactivity at 37 °C has been shown the best single predictor of good outcome (AUC 0.803) while N20P25 was the best single predictor for survival at each time point. (AUC 0.775 at discharge and AUC 0.747 at six months follow up) Predictive value of a model including EEG reactivity, average GWR, and SSEP N20P25 amplitude was superior (AUC 0.841 for survival and 0.920 for good outcome) to any combination of two tests or any single test. Conclusion Our study, in which life-sustaining treatments were never suspended, suggests SSEP cortical complex N20P25, after normothermia ad off sedation, is a reliable predictor for survival at any time. When SSEP cortical complex N20P25 is added into a model with GWR average and EEG reactivity, the predictivity for good outcome and survival at distance is superior than each single test alone.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0779.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Social isolation; risk factors; older adults; long-term care
Online: 31 December 2020 (09:24:17 CET)
Objectives: A wealth of literature has established risk factors for social isolation among older people, however much of this research has focused on community-dwelling populations. Relatively little is known about how risk of social isolation is experienced among those living in long-term care (LTC) homes. We conducted a scoping review to identify possible risk factors for social isolation among older adults living in LTC homes. Methods: A systematic search of five online databases retrieved 1535 unique articles. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Results: Thematic analyses revealed that possible risk factors exist at three levels: individual (e.g., communication barriers), systems (e.g., location of LTC facility), and structural factors (e.g., discrimination). Discussion: Our review identified several risk factors for social isolation that have been previously documented in literature, in addition to several risks that may be unique to those living in LTC homes. Results highlight several scholarly and practical implications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0509.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Ophthalmology Keywords: laser excimer; myopia surgery; long term; Femto-LASIK; PRK
Online: 22 July 2020 (09:53:46 CEST)
Refractive surgery is an increasingly popular procedure to decrease spectacle or contact lens dependency. The two most commonly used surgical techniques to correct myopia is Photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and Femtosecond- Lasik (FS-LASIK)There are few publications that gathers such a long term follow up of both surgical techniques (2) Methods It has been performed a retrospective non-randomized study 509 PRK eyes and 310 FS-LASIK surgeries were followed for 10 years for the treatment of myopia and compound myopic astigmatism. Patients were followed up three months, one year, 2 years, 5 and 10 years. The safety index of both procedures was defined as a quotient between the postoperative BCVA (Best Corrected Visual Acuity) and the preoperative BCVA. The predictability is calculated as difference between the expected spherical equivalent and the achieved spherical equivalent. The efficacy index was calculated as a quotient between postoperative UCVA divided by the preoperative BCVA (3) Results. The results were: a safety index higher than 100% (109%) and an efficacy index of 82.4% after 10 years of PRK surgery in both groups. FS-LASIK was the safest surgery after 10 years and the most efficacy technique although in this case there were no statistically significant differences (4) Conclusions. All these data demonstrated better indexes for FS-LASIK
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0359.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: deeply buried tunnels; deep soft rocks; elasto-visco-plastic creep constitutive model; closed-form solutions; long-term stability; structural integrity; long-term monitoring
Online: 6 September 2023 (03:40:19 CEST)
The time-dependent behavior and long-term stability of deep-buried tunnels in soft rocks have received lots of considerations in tunnel engineering and allied sciences. To better explore and deepen the engineering application of rock creep, extensive research studies are still needed, although fruitful outcomes have already obtained in many related investigations. In this article, the Weilai Tunnel in China’s Guangxi province is studied taking its host rocks as the main research object. In fact, aiming at forecasting the time-varying deformation of this tunnel, a novel elasto-visco-plastic creep constitutive model with two variants is proposed, by exploiting the typical complex load-unload process of rock excavation. The model is well validated and good agreements are found with the relevant experimental data. Moreover, the time-dependent de-formation rules are properly established for the surrounding rocks, by designing two new closed-form solutions based on the proposed creep model and the Hoek-Brown criterion. The convergence deformations calculated from the closed-form solutions conform well to the on-site monitoring data. In only 27 days after excavation, the creep deformation of the Weilai tunnel overtakes 400 mm, which is enormous. To guarantee the long-term stability of this tunnel, a ro-bust support scheme and its long-term monitoring with appropriate remote sensors are strongly suggested.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.2165.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Orthopedics And Sports Medicine Keywords: Humeral resurfacing arthroplasty; long-term outcomes; rheumatoid arthritis; avascular necrosis
Online: 31 August 2023 (10:03:19 CEST)
Humeral resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA) entails the substitution of the articular surface alone with a prosthetic cap without stem. It is a more conservative procedure which can be easily converted in a total arthroplasty if necessary. The present study aimed to evaluate the clinical and radiographical outcomes in a series of patients treated with HRA. 33 patients with a mean fol-low-up of 11 years were clinically (Constant score; Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand score, DASH) and radiographically assessed before and after surgery. Constant and DASH score improved significantly after surgery, and only 2 cases needed revision surgery. HRA represents a valid therapeutic option in selected cases to improve the quality of life and delaying the need for more invasive procedures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0437.v3
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: deep neural network; long short-term memory; suspended sediment; discharge
Online: 16 December 2022 (08:08:08 CET)
The dynamics of suspended sediment involves inherent non-linearity and complexity as a result of the presence of both spatial variability of the basin characteristics and temporal climatic patterns. As a result of this complexity, the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) and other empirical methods produce inaccurate predictions. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as one of the advanced modeling techniques capable of addressing inherent non-linearity in hydrological processes over the last few decades. DNN algorithms are used to perform predictive analysis and investigate the interdependencies among the most pivotal water quantity and quality parameters i.e., discharge, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and turbidity. In this study, the Long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm of DNNs is used to model the discharge-suspended sediment relationship for the Stony Clove Creek. The simulations were run using primary data on discharge, SSC and turbidity. For the development of the DNN models and examining the effects of input vectors, combinations of different input vectors (namely discharge, and SSC) for the current and previous days are considered. Furthermore, a suitable modelling approach with an appropriate model input structure is suggested based on model performance indices for the training and testing phases. The performance of developed models is assessed using statistical indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Statistically, the performance of DNN-based models in simulating the daily SSC performed well with observed sediment concentration series data. The study demonstrates the suitability of the DNN approach for simulation and estimation of daily SSC, opening up new research avenues for applying hybrid soft computing models in hydrology.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0278.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Science Keywords: Long Short-Term Memory; time series forecasting; commodities; technical analysis
Online: 15 November 2022 (07:00:55 CET)
This article presents the implementation of a model to estimate the future price of commodities in the Brazilian market from time series of short-term technical evaluation. For this, data from two databases were used, one referring to the foreign market (opening values, maximum, minimum, closing, closing adjustment and volume) and the other, from the Brazilian market (the price of the day), considering commodities, sugar, cotton, corn, soybean and wheat. Subsequently, the technical indicators were calculated from the TA-Lib technical analysis library. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied, records with low correlation were removed, and then the database was consolidated. From the pre-processed data, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks were used to perform data prediction at the one and three day interval. These models were evaluated using the mean square error (MSE), obtaining results between 0.00010 and 0.00037 on test data one day ahead, and from 0.00017 to 0.00042 three days ahead. However, based on the results obtained, it was observed that the developed model obtained a promising forecasting performance for all the commodities evaluated. As a main contribution, there is the consolidation of databases that can be used in future scientific research. Furthermore, based on its interpretation, it can assist in decision making regarding the buying and selling of commodities to increase financial gains.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0051.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Mathematical And Computational Biology Keywords: Glioblastoma; survival prediction; Machine Learning; biomarkers; HumanPSDTM; Long-term survivor
Online: 3 February 2022 (12:00:23 CET)
Glioblastoma (GBM) is a very aggressive malignant brain tumor with the vast majority of patients surviving less than 12 months (Short-term survivors [STS]). Only around 2% of patients survive more than 36 months (Long-term survivors [LTS]). Studying these extreme survival groups might help in better understanding GBM biology. This work aims at exploring application of machine learning methods in predicting survival groups(STS, LTS). We used age and gene expression profiles belonging to 249 samples from publicly available datasets. 10 Machine learning methods have been implemented and compared for their performances. Hyperparameter tuned random forest model performed best with accuracy of 80% (AUC of 74% and F1_score of 85%). The performance of this model is validated on external test data of 16 samples. The model predicted the true survival group for 15 samples achieving an accuracy of 93.75%. This classification model is deployed as a web tool GlioSurvML. The top 1500 features which retained classification efficiency (Accuracy of 80%, AUC of 74%) were studied for enriched pathways and disease-causal biomarker associations using the HumanPSDTM database. We identified 199 genes as possible biomarkers of GBM and/or similar diseases (like Glioma, astrocytoma, and others). 57 of these genes are shown to be differentially expressed across survival groups and/or have impact on survival. This work demonstrates the application of machine learning methods in predicting survival groups of GBM.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0252.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Science Keywords: Recurrent neural network; Long-term short memory; Gated recurrent unit
Online: 12 July 2021 (12:03:06 CEST)
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made a huge impact in the field of machine learning by providing unbeatable humanlike performance to solve real-world problems such as image processing and natural language processing (NLP). Convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) are two typical architectures that are widely used to solve such problems. Time sequence-dependent problems are generally very challenging, and RNN architectures have made an enormous improvement in a wide range of machine learning problems with sequential input involved. In this paper, different types of RNN architectures are compared. Special focus is put on two well-known gated-RNN’s Long Term Short Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). We evaluated these models on the task of force estimation system in pouring. In this study, four different models including multi-layers LSTM, multi-layers GRU, single-layer LSTM and single-layer GRU) were created and trained. The result suggests that multi-layer GRU outperformed other three models.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0177.v3
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: bias; simulation; long-term monitoring; Delta Smelt; San Francisco Estuary
Online: 23 June 2021 (11:50:11 CEST)
In fisheries monitoring, catch is assumed to be a product of fishing intensity, catchability, and availability, where availability is defined as the number or biomass of fish present and catchability refers to the relationship between catch rate and the true population. Ecological monitoring programs use catch per unit of effort (CPUE) to standardize catch and monitor changes in fish populations; however, CPUE is proportional to the portion of the population that is vulnerable to the type of gear that is used in sampling, which is not necessarily the entire population. Programs often deal with this problem by assuming that catchability is constant, but if catchability is not constant, it is not possible to separate the effects of catchability and population size using monitoring data alone. This study uses individual-based simulation to separate the effects of changing environmental conditions on catchability and availability in environmental monitoring data. The simulation combines a module for sampling conditions with a module for individual fish behavior to estimate the proportion of available fish that would escape from the sample. The method is applied to the case study of the well-monitored fish species Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) in the San Francisco Estuary, where it has been hypothesized that changing water clarity may affect catchability for long-term monitoring studies. Results of this study indicate that given constraints on Delta Smelt swimming ability, it is unlikely that the apparent declines in Delta Smelt abundance are due to an effect of changing water clarity on catchability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0722.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Dementia; multicomponent training; long-term care home; social ethical approach
Online: 31 May 2021 (09:45:37 CEST)
Multicomponent training is recommended for people with dementia living in long-term care homes. Nevertheless, evidence is limited and people with severe dementia are often excluded from trials. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate (1) the feasibility and (2) the requirements regarding a multicomponent training for people with moderate to severe dementia. The study was conducted as an uncontrolled single arm pilot study with a mixed methods approach. 15 nursing home residents with a mean age of 82 years (range: 75-90 years; female: 64%) with moderate to severe dementia received 16 weeks of multicomponent training. Feasibility and requirements of the training were assessed by a standardized observation protocol. Eleven participants regularly attended the intervention. The highest active participation was observed during gait exercises (64%), the lowest during strength exercises (33%). It was supportive if exercises were task-specific or related to everyday life. This study confirms that a multicomponent training for the target group is (1) feasible and well accepted. To enhance active participation (2) individual instructions and the implementation of exercises related to everyday life is required. The effectiveness of the adapted training should be tested in future randomized controlled trials.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0325.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: Hazel Grouse; Bohemian Forest; Long-Term Monitoring; Population Trend; TRIM.
Online: 16 February 2021 (13:33:25 CET)
The population dynamics of Hazel Grouse was studied by presence/ absence recording at stationary sites along fixed routes (110 km) during 1972-2019 in the central part of the Bohemian Forest (Šumava, Czech Republic). The 100-km² study area covered altitudes between 600 m (Rejstejn) and 1,253 m a.s.l., (mount Sokol). Our data base contained indices of Hazel Grouse occupancy: positive sites/ controlled sites for a yearly increasing number of Hazel Grouse occurrence sites (N = 134) for 48 years. We used a loglinear Poisson-regression method to analyze the long-term population trend for Hazel Grouse in the study area. In the period 1972 to 2006 we found a stable Hazel Grouse population (p = 0.83). From 2006-2007 to 2019, the population index dropped (-3.8% per year, p < 0.05) for the last 13 years. This decline is assumed to be influenced by habitat loss due to succession resulting in older, more open forest stands, by strongly increasing forestry and windstorm “Kyrill” followed by clear cutting, bark-beetle damage, and removal of pioneer trees in spruce plantations, which diminished buds and catkins, the dominant winter food. The influence of disturbance by increasing touristic activities and/or predation is discussed. Our results could help to optimize conservation efforts for Hazel Grouse in the Bohemian Forest.
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0278.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: FOLFIRINOX; pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; surgery; liver metastases; long term survival
Online: 27 August 2019 (05:16:03 CEST)
Metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma pancreatic (PDAC) is characterized by poor prognosis and short survival. Today, the use of new polytherapeutic regimens increases clinical outcome of these patients opening new clinical scenario. A crucial issue related to the actual improvement achieved with these new regimens is represented by the occasional possibility to observe a radiological complete response of metastatic lesions in patients with synchronous primary tumor. What could be the best therapeutic management of these patients? Could surgery represent an indication? Herein we reported a case of a patient with a PDAC of the head with multiple liver metastasis, who underwent first line chemotherapy with mFOLFIRINOX. After 10 cycles, he achieved a complete radiological response of liver metastases and a partial response of pancreatic lesion. A, duodenocephalopancreasectomy was performed. Due to liver a lung metastases after 8 months from surgery, a second line therapy was started with a disease free survival and overall survival of 8 months and 45 months, respectively. Improvement in the molecular characterization of PDAC could help in the selection of patients suitable for multimodal treatments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0034.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Insect Science Keywords: long-term; sex ratio; action threshold; pest management; insecticide use
Online: 6 May 2019 (08:19:10 CEST)
A long-term investigation of D. suzukii dynamics in wild blueberry fields from 2012 - 2018 demonstrates relative abundance is still increasing seven years after initial invasion. Relative abundance is determined by physiological date of first detection and air temperatures the previous winter. Date of first detection of flies does not determine date of fruit infestation. The level of fruit infestation is determined by year, fly pressure, and insecticide application frequency. Frequency of insecticide application is determined by production system. Non-crop wild fruit and predation influences fly pressure; increased wild fruit abundance results in increased fly pressure. Increased predation rate reduces fly pressure, but only at high abundance of flies, or when high levels of wild fruit are present along field edges. Male sex ratio might be declining over the seven years. Action thresholds were developed from samples of 92 fields from 2012 - 2017 that related cumulative adult male trap capture to the following week likelihood of fruit infestation. A two-parameter gamma density function describing this probability was used to develop a risk-based gradient action threshold system. The action thresholds were validated from 2016-2018 in 35 fields and were shown to work well in two of three years (2016 and 2017).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0105.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Nursing Keywords: depression; total protein; elder people; physical function; long-term care
Online: 6 August 2018 (09:41:35 CEST)
Due to its devastating consequences, late life depression is an important public health problem. The aim of the study was the analysis of variables which may potentially influence risk of depression (GDS-SF). Furthermore, the aim was to study possible mediating effect of given variables on the relationship between the total protein concentration and risk of depression in older-adults with chronic diseases, and physical function impairment. The research sample included a total of 132 older adults with chronic conditions and physical function impairments, remaining under a long-term care in residential environment. Negative linear correlation was observed between patients’ physical functionality, total protein concentration, concentration of HDL cholesterol, arm circumference, and the risk of depression. Considerably stronger relationship was observed between total protein concentration, and GDS-SF, in elderly suffering from sensory dysfunction (b = −6.42, 95% CI = −11.27; −1.58). The effect of the mediation between depression risk is correlated to total protein concentration in blood serum, and the mediators are probably low function impairment and low levels of 25 (OH)D vitamin. Cohort control research is suggested to confirm the hypothesis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0295.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: long-term care, elderly people, behavior assessment, factor analysis, independence
Online: 19 June 2018 (10:59:03 CEST)
The rapid growth rate of the elderly population is a serious current issue in most countries, affecting them economically through needed medical treatment and healthcare planning. The priority concern is how to reduce the number of elderly people requiring long-term healthcare and raise the number who are able to live independently. This study executed a behavior assessment of elderly person’s self-reported use of electric scooters and analyzed their degree of acceptance of these assisted living tools, partly through a related factor analysis of our survey instrument. We used this questionnaire survey as our research method, applying SPSS22 software for factor analysis that revealed five survey facets.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0788.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: patent foramen ovale; complex PFO anatomy; GSO; long-term residual shunt
Online: 12 July 2023 (07:55:03 CEST)
Background: PFO (Patent foramen ovale) is a common defect that affects about 25% of the population. Although its presence is asymptomatic in the majority of the cases, the remaining part becomes overt with different symptoms, including cryptogenic stroke. The PFO closure procedure is widely available to date with the most used Amplatzer PFO Occluder, also in complex anatomy, but the performance of another device, the GORE Septal Occluder (GSO), has not been completely explored with regard to different septal anatomies. Methods: From March 2012 to June 2020, 118 consecutive patients with an indication for PFO closure were treated using the GSO system and included in a prospective analysis and followed. After 12 months, every patient underwent transcranial Doppler to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment. Results: of 111 patients evaluated, 107 showed effective PFO closure (96,4%) and 4 showed a residual shunt (3,6%). To better evaluate the device performance, the overall population was sorted into 2 clusters based on the echocardiographic characteristics. The main difference between groups was for PFO width (4,85 ± 1,8 vs 2,9 ± 1 mm, p <0,001) and PFO tunnel length (12,6 ± 3,8 vs 7,2 ± 2 respectively, p <0,001), allowing identification of complex anatomy and simple anatomy, respectively. Regardless of the aforementioned cluster, the GSO performance to reach an effective closure was independent of anatomy type and the chosen device size. Conclusion: GSO device showed efficacy and safety at 1-year follow-up in patients with at least 1 anatomical factor of complexity of PFO, irrespectively from the level of complexity itself.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0934.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Applied Mathematics Keywords: Time Series; Forecasting, Deep Learning; Genetic Algorithm; Long Short-Term Memory
Online: 12 May 2023 (11:07:28 CEST)
Fluctuating stock prices make it difficult for investors to see investment opportunities. One tool that can help investors overcome this is forecasting techniques. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of deep learning methods used in forecasting time series. The training and success of deep learning is strongly influenced by the selection of hyperparameters. This research uses a hybrid method between the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and LSTM to find a suitable model for predicting stock prices. GA is used in optimizing the architecture such as the number of epochs, window size, and the number of LSTM units in the hidden layer. Tuning optimizer is also carried out using several optimizers to achieve the best value. From method that has been applied, it shows that the method has a good level of accuracy with MAPE values below 10% in every optimizer used. The error rate generated is quite low, in case-1 with a minimum RMSE value of 93.03 and 94.40, & in case-2 with an RMSE value of 104.99 and 150.06 during training and testing. A fairly stable and small value is generated by setting it using the Adam Optimizer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0308.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: cooperative learning; professional capital; learning of education professionals; long-term project
Online: 5 May 2023 (05:41:46 CEST)
This article presents the research results on developing professional capital in Lithuanian schools during the national project "Time for leaders". The longitudinal national initiative aimed to develop professional capital as the synergy of human, social and decisional components (Hargreaves and Fullan, 2019) of schools through the various cooperation-based learning experiences of educational professionals. The article provides an overview of project interventions (activities that stimulated cooperative learning of educational professionals) in the light of cooperative learning principles. The assessment of change over two project years in education professionals' perceptions of professional capital is presented using Cohen's d effect size measure. The measurement sample consisted of teachers (n1=5105; n2=4683) and school leaders (n1=439; n2=405) from 189 schools in 30 Lithuanian municipalities. The findings show a statistically significant medium positive change in professional capital. The most considerable change was estimated in the social and decisional capital dimensions and the relatively smallest - in the field of human capital.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0512.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: fish; functional data analysis; long-term monitoring; habitat; occupancy; modeling; California
Online: 21 March 2023 (10:25:11 CET)
Coincident changes in abundance and behavior pose a challenge for interpreting abundance data from monitoring programs. In the San Francisco Estuary, long-term monitoring documented the declines of many species including the anadromous Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys). We identified seasonal patterns in reginal presence of Longfin Smelt through its life cycle using monitoring data and generalized additive modelling. We then investigated the year-to-year variability in the seasonal patterns of presence using functional data analysis (FDA). FDA separated the variability due to population size from variability due to differences in timing of presence. We found that Longfin Smelt have consistent seasonal distribution patterns and that two trawl types were needed to accurately describe those patterns. After accounting for variability due to year-class strength, shifts in the timing of presence were evident in three regions. The most variable period for the upstream regions Suisun Bay and West Delta was for age-0 fish in summer and for the downstream region Central Bay was for age-0 fish in late fall. This manifested as a delay in the typical fall re-occupation of upstream regions that comprise the study area for another monitoring study (Fall Midwater Trawl). Thus, a portion of the recent reductions in Fall Midwater Trawl abundance of Longfin Smelt resulted from changes in behavior rather than a decline in abundance. The presence of multiple monitoring surveys allowed analysis of distribution from one data set to aid interpretation of patterns in abundance from another monitoring survey. This study highlights how identifying portions of the life cycle with the most and least variability in distribution can help inform the types of management strategies that will be most effective. It also illustrates an analytical method that can be used to address the problem of confounded effects of abundance and behavior on patterns in monitoring data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0104.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: hydrological research basin; precipitation; temperature; long-term trends; climate change; evapotranspiration
Online: 3 June 2021 (11:35:58 CEST)
While the ongoing climate change is well documented, the impacts exhibit a substantial variability, both in direction and magnitude, visible even at regional and local scales. However, the knowledge of regional impacts is crucial for the design of mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly when changes in the hydrological cycle are concerned. In this paper we present hydro-meteorological trends based on observations from a hydrological research basin in Eastern Austria between 1979-2019. The analysed state variables include the air temperature, the precipitation, and the catchment runoff. Additionally, trends for the catchment evapotranspiration were derived. The analysis shows that while the mean annual temperature was decreasing and annual temperature minima remained constant, the annual maxima were rising. The long-term trends indicate a shift of precipitation to the summer with minor variations observed for the remaining seasons and at an annual scale. Observed precipitation intensities mainly increased in spring and summer between 1979-2019. The catchment evapotranspiration, computed based on catchment precipitation and outflow, showed an increasing trend for the observed time period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0401.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Machine learning; Ultrasonic measurements; Long Short-Term Memory; Industrial Digital technologies
Online: 18 February 2021 (09:31:43 CET)
Beer fermentation is typically monitored by periodic sampling and off-line analysis. In-line sensors would remove the need for time-consuming manual operation and provide real-time evaluation of the fermenting media. This work uses a low-cost ultrasonic sensor combined with machine learning to predict the alcohol concentration during beer fermentation. The highest accuracy model (R2=0.952, MAE=0.265, MSE=0.136) used a transmission-based ultrasonic sensing technique along with the measured temperature. However, the second most accurate model (R2=0.948, MAE=0.283, MSE=0.146) used a reflection-based technique without the temperature. Both the reflection-based technique and the omission of the temperature data are novel to this research and demonstrate the potential for a non-invasive sensor to monitor beer fermentation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0629.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Dietetics And Nutrition Keywords: Community Health Survey; CHS; PM10 long-term effect; young adults; BMI
Online: 28 August 2020 (09:26:19 CEST)
Background: The associations between long-term exposure to particulate matters (PM) in residential ambiance and obesity are comparatively less elucidated among young adults. Methods: Using 2017 Community Health Survey data with aged 19−29 participants in 25 communities, Seoul, the relationship between obesity and long−term PM10 levels of living district was examined. We defined obesity as overweight (25≤BMI<30) or obese (30≤BMI) using Body Mass Index (BMI) from self-reported anthropometric information. Analysis was conducted sampling weighted logistic regression models by fitting municipal PM10 levels according to individual residence periods with 10 years and more residing in a current municipality. Socio-demographic factors were adjusted over all models and age−specific effect was explored among aged 19–24 and 25–29. Results: Total study population are 3,655 [men 1,680 (46.0%) and aged 19–24 1,933 (52.9%)] individuals. Among the communities with greater level of PM10; 2001–2005, associations with obesity were increased for overall with residence period; 10 years ≤ [Odds ratio, OR 1.071, 95% Confidence interval (CI) 0.969–1.185], 15 years ≤ [OR 1.118, 95% CI 1.004–1.245], and 20 years ≤ [OR 1.156, 95% CI 1.032–1.294]. However, decreased associations were detected for PM10; 2006–2010, and age–specific effects were modified according to the residence period. Conclusions: Although currently PM10 levels are decreasing, higher levels of PM10 exposure at the residential area during the earlier life-time may contribute in increasing obesity among young adults.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0719.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; long-term; neutralization antibody; lymphocyte functionality; viral pathogenicity.
Online: 30 July 2020 (12:16:21 CEST)
COVID-19 patients can recover with a median SARS-CoV-2 clearance of 20 days post initial symptoms (PIS). However, we observed some COVID-19 patients with existing SARS-CoV-2 for more than 50 days PIS. This study aimed to investigate the cause of viral clearance delay and the infectivity in these patients. Demographic data and clinical characteristics of 22 long-term COVID-19 patients were collected. SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid, peripheral lymphocyte count, and functionality were assessed. SARS-CoV-2-specific and neutralization antibodies were detected, followed by virus isolation and genome sequencing. The median age of the studied cohort was 59.83±12.94 years. All patients were clinically cured after long-term SARS-CoV-2 infection ranging from 53 to 112 days PIS. Peripheral lymphocytes counts were normal. Interferon gamma (IFN-ƴ)-generated CD4+ and CD8+ cells were normal as 24.68±9.60% and 66.41±14.87%. However, the number of IFN-ƴ-generated NK cells diminished (58.03±11.78%). All patients presented detectable IgG, which positively correlated with mild neutralizing activity (ID50=157.2, P=0.05). SARS-CoV-2 was not isolated, and a cytopathic effect was lacking. Only three synonymous variants were identified in spike protein coding regions. In conclusion, decreased IFN-γ production by NK cells and low neutralizing antibodies might favor SARS-CoV-2 long-term existence. Further, low viral load and weak viral pathogenicity was observed in COVID-19 patients with long-term SARS-CoV-2 infection.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0009.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Great Recession; health care expenditures; long-term; convergence analysis; Phillips-Sul
Online: 2 December 2019 (10:15:40 CET)
This paper examines whether the Great Recession has altered the disparities of the US regional health care expenditures. We test the null hypothesis of convergence for the US real per capita health expenditure for the period 1980-2014. Our results indicate that the null hypothesis of convergence is clearly rejected for the total sample as well as for the pre-Great Recession period. Thus, no changes are found in this regard. However, we find that the Great Recession has modified the composition of the estimated convergence clubs, offering a much more concentrated picture in 2014 than in 2008, with most of the states included in a big club, and only 5 (Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado and Georgia) exhibiting a different pattern of behavior. These two estimated clubs diverge and, consequently, the disparities in the regional health sector have increased.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0155.v2
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: Long short-term memory; Brain dynamics; Data-driven modeling; Complex systems
Online: 18 September 2019 (13:05:22 CEST)
Modeling brain dynamics to better understand and control complex behaviors underlying various cognitive brain functions are of interests to engineers, mathematicians, and physicists from the last several decades. With a motivation of developing computationally efficient models of brain dynamics to use in designing control-theoretic neurostimulation strategies, we have developed a novel data-driven approach in a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network architecture to predict the temporal dynamics of complex systems over an extended long time-horizon in future. In contrast to recent LSTM-based dynamical modeling approaches that make use of multi-layer perceptrons or linear combination layers as output layers, our architecture uses a single fully connected output layer and reversed-order sequence-to-sequence mapping to improve short time-horizon prediction accuracy and to make multi-timestep predictions of dynamical behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in reconstructing the regular spiking to bursting dynamics exhibited by an experimentally-validated 9-dimensional Hodgkin-Huxley model of hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons. Through simulations, we show that our LSTM neural network can predict the multi-time scale temporal dynamics underlying various spiking patterns with reasonable accuracy. Moreover, our results show that the predictions improve with increasing predictive time-horizon in the multi-timestep deep LSTM neural network.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1863.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: COVID 19; myocardial infarction; cardiovascular burden; long-term outcomes; acute coronary syndrome
Online: 27 September 2023 (11:29:44 CEST)
Coronavirus infection disease -2019 (COVID-19) was a global pandemic with high mortality and morbidity, that lead to an increased health burned all over the world. Although the virus affects mostly pulmonary tract, cardiovascular implications were often among COVID-19 positive patients, and are predictive for poor outcomes. Increased values of myocardial biomarkers such as Troponin I or NT-proBNP were proven to be risk factors for respiratory failure (26). Although the risk of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) was greater in acute-phase of COVID-19, there were lower rates of hospitalization for ACS, due to patient’s hesitation for presenting at the hospital (22). Hospitalized ACS patients with COVID-19 infection, had a prolonged symptom-to-first medical contact time, and longer door-to-balloon time. The mechanisms of myocardial injurie in COVID -19 patients are not still not clear, most often is incriminated: the down-regulation of ACE2 inhibitors, endothelial disfunction, pro-coagulant status, increased levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the long-term outcomes of COVID-19 survivors that presented an acute myocardial infarction by reviewing existing data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0036.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: long-term experiment; shear strength; soil aggregate stability; straw return; cover crop
Online: 1 August 2023 (09:54:32 CEST)
This study investigates the long-term impact of soil tillage systems and crop residue incorporation on agrophysical properties. A long-term field experiment has been conducted since 1999 at the Ex-perimental Station of Vytautas Magnus University Agriculture Academy. According to the latest edition of the International Soil Classification System, the soil in the experimental field was classified as Planosol, with a silty medium loam texture at a depth of 0–20 cm and a silty light loam at a depth of 20–40 cm. This investigation aimed to assess the long-term impact of reduced tillage systems, straw, and green manure combinations on soil physical properties, including soil shear strength, and soil aggregate stability. Studies were carried out on winter wheat crops in 2014, 2017, and 2023. The treatments were arranged using a split-plot design. In a two-factor field experiment, one part of the experimental field had straw removed, while the other part had the entire straw yield chopped and spread at harvest (Factor A). The subplot factor (Factor B) included three different tillage sys-tems: conventional deep ploughing, cover cropping for green manure with no-till, and no-tillage. Soil samples were analysed in the Laboratory of Agrobiology at Vytautas Magnus University Ag-riculture Academy. The findings indicate that long-term application of reduced tillage significantly increases soil shear strength. Shallower tillage depths lead to higher soil shear strength, while the effect of spreading plant residues is relatively lower. Long-term tillage of different intensities, spreading plant residues, and catch crop cultivation for green manure did not significantly affect soil structure. However, soil structural stability was found to be highly dependent on soil tillage. Cover cropping for green manure with no-till and no-tillage positively affected soil aggregate sta-bility in the upper (0–10 cm) and 10–25 cm layers.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.2231.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Neuroscience And Neurology Keywords: neurodevelopmental disorders; hippocampus; long-term potentiation; dendritic spines; prenatal nicotine exposure model
Online: 30 June 2023 (12:16:05 CEST)
Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder with high incidence in children and adolescents characterized by motor hyperactivity, impulsivity, and inattention. MRI-based evidences support that neuroanatomical abnormalities as the volume reduction of neocortex and hippocampus are shared by several neuropsychiatric diseases as schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder and ADHD. In addition, it is well documented the abnormal development and postnatal pruning of dendritic spines of neocortical neurons in schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder and intellectual disability. A recent report using the prenatal nicotine exposure murine model of ADHD support a delay in spine maturation in CA1 neurons correlated with impaired working memory and hippocampal long-term potentiation (LTP). In vivo spine imaging show that dendritic spines are dynamic structures exhibiting Hebbian and homeostatic plasticity triggering intracellular cascades involving glutamate receptors, calcium influx and remodeling of F-actin network. The LTP-induced insertion of postsynaptic glutamate receptors is associated to the enlargement of spine head and long-term depression (LTD) to the spine shrinkage. In this review, we summarize recent evidence emerged from meta-analysis of brain imaging data from ADHD patients, risk loci from global genome-wide analysis and new reports focused on spine molecular structure and dynamics using in vivo imaging in neocortex and hippocampus.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0086.v2
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Deep neural network; long short-term memory; water quality; discharge; stream-water
Online: 17 April 2023 (07:21:31 CEST)
Multivariate predictive analysis of the Stream-Water (SW) parameters (discharge, water level, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and specific conductance) is a pivotal task in the field of water resource management during the era of rapid climate change. The highly dynamic and evolving nature of the meteorological and climatic features have a significant impact on the temporal distribution of the SW variables in recent days making the SW variables forecasting even more complicated for diversified water-related issues. To predict the SW variables, various physics-based numerical models are used using numerous hydrologic parameters. Extensive lab-based investigation and calibration are required to reduce the uncertainty involved in those parameters. However, in the age of data-informed analysis and prediction, several deep learning algorithms showed satisfactory performance in dealing with sequential data. In this research, a comprehensive Explorative Data Analysis (EDA) and feature engineering were performed to prepare the dataset to obtain the best performance of the predictive model. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network regression model is trained using over several years of daily data to predict the SW variables up to one week ahead of time (lead time) with satisfactory performance. The performance of the proposed model is found highly adequate through the comparison of the predicted data with the observed data, visualization of the distribution of the errors, and a set of error matrices. Higher performance is achieved through the increase in the number of epochs and hyperparameter tuning. This model can be transferred to other locations with proper feature engineering and optimization to perform univariate predictive analysis and potentially be used to perform real-time SW variables prediction.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0153.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: long-term trend; meander planform; subcritical flow; width-depth ratio; riparian management
Online: 9 February 2023 (03:58:56 CET)
This study numerically evaluated the long-term and stable trends of meandering channel planform at different mean annual subcritical flows based on a depth-averaged linearized meander evolution model. The calculation cases included an idealized sine-generated meander with moderate max-deflection angle and a typical natural meander - Jiyun River (in China). Within the increase of the selection of the mean annual width-depth ratio in a certain scope, the results showed some specific phase characteristics of channel centerline evolution: (1) the meander straightening trend became weaker in phase 1 (B/H ≤ 16.5) and gradually turned into the meander developing trend in phase 2 (B/H ≤ 27) with the overall immunity to flow magnitude; (2) the symmetric development form along the transverse direction perpendicular to the flow average direction was broken starting from the downstream tail in phase 3 (B/H ≤ 28.9), meantime accompanied by the highlight of flow effects when the mean annual B/H exceeded 28; (3) in phase 4 (B/H ≤ 29.5), there occurred obvious incipience and jump process of the channel sensitivity responding to flow when the selected B/H crossed 29.3, which were very similar to the transition process from the laminar flow to turbulent flow. Besides, the initial sinuosity and curvature-ratio indicator could contribute much to the channel evolutionary state, as demonstrated in the comparison between natural Jiyun River case and the correspondingly idealized sine-generated meander case with the same level of mean annual B/H. This research provides innovation spaces for deeper meander mechanism exploration and effective riparian management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0361.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: Heart Rate Variability; Inflammatory markers; Long-term Covid-19; Autonomic nervous system.
Online: 21 November 2022 (01:21:37 CET)
Background: Heart rate variability is a non-invasive, measurable, and established autonomic nervous system test. Long-term COVID-19 sequelae are unclear; however, acute symptoms have been studied. Objectives: To determine autonomic cardiac differences between long COVID-19 patients and heathy controls and evaluate associations among symptoms, comorbidities, and laboratory findings. Methods: This single-center study included long COVID-19 patients and healthy controls. The heart rate variability (HRV), a quantitative marker of autonomic activity, was monitored for 24 h using an ambulatory electrocardiogram system. HRV indices were compared between case and control groups. Symptom frequency and inflammatory markers were evaluated. The significance level of 5% (p-value 0.05) was adopted. Results: A total of 47 long COVID-19 patients were compared to 42 healthy controls. Patients averaged 43.8 (SD14.8) years old, and 60.3% were female. In total, 52.5% of patients had moderate illness. Post-exercise dyspnea was most common (71.6%), and 53.2% lacked comorbidities. COVID-19 patients had 4 times more dyslipidemia. CNP, D-dimer, and CRP levels were elevated (p-values of 0.0098, 0.0023, and 0.0015, respectively). The control group had greater SDNN24 and SDANNI (OR = 0.98 (0.97 to 0.99; p = 0.01)). Increased low-frequency (LF) indices in COVID-19 patients (OR = 1.002 (1.0001 to 1.004; p = 0.030)) and high-frequency (HF) indices in the control group (OR = 0.987 (0.98 to 0.995; p = 0.001)) were also associated. Conclusions: Patients with long COVID-19 had lower HF values than healthy individuals. These variations are associated with increased parasympathetic activity, which may be related to long COVID-19 symptoms and inflammatory laboratory findings.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0043.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: Commodities; Long Short-Term Memory; Machine Learning; Neural Networks; Prediction; Technical analysis
Online: 5 October 2022 (13:39:16 CEST)
This paper presents the development and implementation of a machine learning model to estimate the future price of commodities in the Brazilian market from technical analysis indicators. For this, two databases were obtained regarding the commodities sugar, cotton, corn, soybean and wheat, which were submitted to the steps of data cleaning, pre-processing and subdivision. From the pre-processed data, recurrent neural networks of the long short-term memory type were used to perform the prediction of data in the interval of 1 and 3 days ahead. These models were evaluated using mean squared error, obtaining an accuracy between 0.00010 and 0.00037 on the test data for 1 day ahead and 0.00015 to 0.00041 for 3 days ahead. However, based on the results obtained, it can be stated that the developed model obtained a good prediction performance for all commodities evaluated.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0239.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Nursing Keywords: long-term care; healthcare workers; mental health; moral distress; resilience; COVID-19
Online: 12 August 2022 (12:43:46 CEST)
Healthcare workers (HCWs) in long-term care (LTC) faced and continue to experience significant emotional and psychological distress throughout the pandemic. Despite this, little is known about the unique experiences of LTC workers. This scoping review synthesizes existing research on the experiences of HCWs in LTC during the COVID-19 pandemic. Following Arksey and O’Malley’s framework, data were extracted from six databases from inception of the pandemic to June 2022. Among 3,808 articles screened, 40 articles were included in the final analysis. Analyses revealed three interrelated themes: carrying the load (moral distress); building pressure and burning out (emotional exhaustion); and working through it (a sense of duty to care). Given the impacts of the pandemic on both HCW wellbeing and patient care, every effort must be made to address the LTC workforce crisis and evaluate best practices for supporting HCWs experiencing mental health concerns during and post-COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0308.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Relational benefits; calculative and affective commitment; long-term orientation; multi-channel agency
Online: 13 July 2021 (12:21:34 CEST)
Our study provides guidelines on how to build long-term customer relationship in the non-contract mechanism context. More specifically, the findings show that special, social, and core benefits influence calculative commitment, and operational and special benefits influence affective commitment. This study also supports that calculative and affective commitment play a crucial role in understanding multi-channel agencies’ loyalty. In sum, this study revealed that calculative and affective commitment can be considered as partial or full mediators in the relationship between RBs (relational benefits) and loyalty. This study not only contributed to the existing SET (social exchange theory) and RBs paradigm but also provided practical implications for food distribution management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0809.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: Long-term care; care homes; nursing homes; dementia; quality improvement; palliative care
Online: 31 December 2020 (13:16:03 CET)
Important policy developments in dementia and palliative care in nursing homes between 2010 and 2015 in Flanders, Belgium might have influenced which people die in nursing homes and how they die. We aimed to examine differences between 2010 and 2015 in the prevalence and characteristics of residents with dementia in nursing homes in Flanders, and their palliative care service use and comfort in the last week of life. We used two retrospective epidemiological studies, including 198 residents in 2010 and 183 in 2015, who died with dementia in representative samples of nursing homes in Flanders. We found a 23%-point increase in dementia prevalence (P-value<0.001), with a total of 11%-point decrease in severe to very severe cognitive impairment (P=0.04). Controlling for this difference in resident characteristics, in the last week of life, there were increases in the use of pain assessment (+20%-point; P<0.001) and assistance with eating and drinking (+10%-point; P=0.02) but no change in total comfort. The higher prevalence of dementia in nursing homes with no improvement in residents’ total comfort while dying emphasize an urgent need to better support nursing homes in improving their capacities to provide timely and high-quality palliative care services to more residents dying with dementia.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0597.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: monarch butterflies; Danaus plexippus; population status; conservation; long-term studies; milkweed limitation
Online: 28 October 2020 (15:32:14 CET)
There are a large number of wildlife and insect species that are in trouble on this planet, and most believe that monarch butterflies in eastern North America are too, because of the well-publicized declines of their winter colonies in central Mexico in the last 25 years. A small number of studies over the last decade have cast doubt on this claim by showing declines are not evident at other stages of the annual cycle. To determine how extensive this pattern is, I conducted an exhaustive review of peer-reviewed and grey literature on (eastern) monarch population censuses and studies, conducted across all seasons, and extracted data from these sources to evaluate how monarch abundance has or has not changed over time. I identified 20 collections of data that included butterfly club reports, compilations of citizen-science observations, migration roost censuses, long-term studies of isotopic signatures, and even museum records. These datasets range in duration from 15 years to over 100 years, and I endeavored to also update each with information from the most current years. I also re-examined the winter colony data after incorporating historical records of colony measurements dating back to 1976. This represents the most complete and up-to-date synthesis of information regarding this population. When I examined the long-term trajectory within each dataset a distinct pattern emerged. Modest declines are evident within the winter colonies (over the full 45 year dataset), and, within three censuses conducted during the spring recolonization. Meanwhile, 16 completely separate monitoring studies conducted during the summer and fall (and from varying locations) revealed either no trend at all or in fact an increase in abundance. While each of these long-term studies has inherent limitations, the fact that all 16 sources of data show the same pattern is undeniable. Moreover, this evidence is consistent with recently-conducted genetic work that shows a lack of decline. Collectively, these results indicate that despite diminishing winter colonies and spring migrations, monarchs in eastern North America are capable of rebounding fully each year, implying that milkweed is not limiting within their collective range. Moreover, there is no indication from these data that the summer population was ever truly diminished by changing agricultural practices in the Midwest that reduced milkweed in crop fields within that region. It is possible that the larger population is not as dependent on Midwestern agricultural milkweed as once thought, and/or that monarchs are adapting to increasingly human-altered landscapes. These results are timely and should bear on the upcoming USFWS decision on whether the monarch requires federal protection in the United States. Importantly, they argue that despite losses of many insects globally, the eastern North American monarch population is not in the same situation.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: precipitation downscaling; convolutional neural networks; long short term memory networks; hydrological simulation
Online: 2 April 2019 (12:37:11 CEST)
Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs’ precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the ECMWF-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including 1) quantile mapping, 2) support vector machine, and 3) convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecast, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from ECMWF model. Compared to ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead time from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases along forecast lead time, as GCM’s skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics being diminished by the chaotic effect. At last, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is just slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE=0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0126.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: Speech/Music Classification; Enhanced Voice Service, Long Short-Term Memory, Big Data
Online: 5 November 2018 (17:02:36 CET)
Speech/music classification that facilitates optimized signal processing from classification results has been extensively adapted as an essential part of various electronics applications, such as multi-rate audio codecs, automatic speech recognition, and multimedia document indexing. In this paper, a new technique to improve the robustness of speech/music classifier for 3GPP enhanced voice service (EVS) using long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed. For effective speech/music classification, feature vectors implemented with the LSTM are chosen from the features of the EVS. Experiments show that LSTM-based speech/music classification produces better results than conventional EVS under a variety of conditions and types of speech/music data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0075.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: Long Term Evolution, LTE; 4G; mobile phone; nociception; pain; thermal pain threshold
Online: 20 August 2018 (15:01:09 CEST)
Although the majority of mobile phone (MP) users do not attribute adverse effects on health or well-being to MP-emitted radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs), the exponential increase in the number of RF devices necessitates continuing research aimed at the objective investigation of such concerns. In this work, we investigate the effects of acute exposure from Long Term Evolution (LTE) MP EMFs on thermal pain threshold in healthy young adults. We use a protocol that was validated in a previous study in a capsaicin-induced hyperalgesia model, and was also successfully used to show that exposure from an RF source mimicking a Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) MP led to mildly stronger desensitization to repeated noxious thermal stimulation relative to the sham condition. Using the same experimental design, we did not find any effects of LTE exposure on thermal pain threshold. The present results are in accordance with previous evidence suggesting that effects are likely to be placebo/nocebo effects and are unrelated to the brief acute LTE EMF exposure itself. The fact that this is dissimilar to our previous results on UMTS exposure implies that RF modulations might differentially affect pain perception, and points to the necessity of further research in the topic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0248.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Ophthalmology Keywords: Ab interno trabeculectomy; Trabectome surgery; long-term outcomes; microinvasive glaucoma surgeries; MIGS
Online: 19 April 2018 (09:41:02 CEST)
Purpose: To analyze the five-year results of Trabectome ab interno trabeculectomy of a single glaucoma center. Method: In this retrospective interventional single-center case series, data of 93 patients undergoing ab interno trabeculotomy between September 2010, and December 2012 were included. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed using success criteria defined as postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) ≤21 mm Hg, or >20% reduction from preoperative IOP, and no need for further glaucoma surgery. Risk factors for failure were identified using Cox proportional hazards ratio (HR). Results: The retention rate for five years follow-up was 66%. The cumulative probability of success at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years was 82.6%, 76.7%, 73.9%, 72.3%, and 67.5%. Risk factors for failure were lower baseline IOP (HR=0.27, P=0.001), younger age (HR=0.25, P=0.02), and higher central corneal thickness (HR=0.18, P= 0.01). Pseudoexfoliation was associated with a higher success rate (HR= 0.39, P=0.02). IOP was decreased significantly from 20.0±5.6 mmHg at baseline to 15.6±4.6 mmHg at 5-year follow-up (P=0.001). The baseline number of glaucoma medications was 1.8±1.2, which decreased to 1.0±1.2 medications at 5 years. Conclusion: Trabectome surgery was associated with a good long-term efficacy and safety profile in this single-center case series with a high retention rate. A higher baseline IOP, older age, thinner cornea, and pseudoexfoliation glaucoma were associated with a higher success rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1115.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: InSAR-based method; coal mine goaf; prediction of long-term land subsidence; concatenation of multiple short-term monitoring data
Online: 18 July 2023 (02:35:57 CEST)
The land subsidence occurring in goafs after coal mining is a protracted process. The accurate prediction of long-term land subsidence in goafs relies heavily on the availability of long-term monitoring data. However, the scarcity of continuous long-term land subsidence monitoring data subsequent to the cessation of mining significantly hinders the accurate prediction of long-term land subsidence in goafs. To address this challenge, this study proposes an innovative method based on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for predicting long-term land subsidence of goafs following coal mining. The proposed method employs a concatenation approach that integrates multiple short-term monitoring data from different coal faces, each with distinct cessation times, into a cohesive and uniform long-term sequence by normalizing the subsidence rates. The method was verified using actual monitoring data from the Yangquan No.2 mine in Shanxi Province, China. Initially, coal faces with same shapes but varying cessation times were selected for analysis. Using InSAR monitoring data collected between June and December of 2016, the average subsidence rate corresponding to the duration after coal mining cessation of each coal face was back-calculated. Subsequently, a function relating subsidence rate to the duration after coal mining cessation was fitted to the data. Finally, the relationship between cumulative subsidence and the duration after coal mining cessation was derived by integrating the function. The results indicated that the relationship between subsidence rate and duration after coal mining cessation followed an exponential function for a given coal face, whereas the relationship between cumulative subsidence and duration after coal mining cessation conformed to the Knothe time function. Notably, after the cessation of coal mining, significant land subsidence persisted in the goaf of the Yangquan No.2 mine for a duration ranging from 5 to 10 years. The cumulative subsidence curve along the long axis of the coal face ultimately exhibited an inclined W-shape. The proposed method enables the quantitative prediction of residual land subsidence in goafs, even in cases where continuous long-term monitoring data are insufficient, thus providing valuable guidance for construction decisions above the goaf.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1531.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: power spectrum prediction; graph convolutional neural networks; tensor graph; long short term memory
Online: 22 August 2023 (09:44:05 CEST)
Generally, when cognitive radio users are in Underlay mode, through the analysis of the electromagnetic spectrum in time, frequency, space, and field of multiple dimensional data accounts for judging the inherent correlation of the radio spectrum used/idle state, this is the realization of cognitive radio users (secondary users, SUs) efficient access to the foundation of the limited spectrum resources. Therefore, how to efficiently use of spectrum status of each SU implementation of reception multidimensional combination forecasting is the core of this paper addressing the problem. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning hybrid model called TensorGCN-LSTM based on the tensor data structure. The model treats SUs deployed at different spatial locations under the same frequency and the spectrum status of SUs themselves under different frequencies in the task area as nodes and constructs two types of graph structures. Graph convolutional operations are used to sequentially extract corresponding spatial-domain and frequency-domain features from the two types of graph structures. Then, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model is used to fuse the spatial, frequency, and temporal features of the cognitive radio environment data. Finally, the prediction task of the spectrum distribution situation is accomplished through fully connected layers. Specifically, the model constructs a tensor graph based on the spatial similarity of SUs' locations and the frequency correlation between different frequency signals received by SUs, which describes the electromagnetic wave's dependency relationship in spatial and frequency domains. LSTM is used to capture the electromagnetic wave's dependency relationship in the temporal domain. To evaluate the effectiveness of the model, we conducted ablation experiments on LSTM, GCN, GC-LSTM, and TensorGCN-LSTM models using simulated data. The experimental results show that our model achieved better prediction performance in RMSE, and the correlation coefficient R2 of 0.8753 also confirmed the feasibility of the model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1325.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: Dependency; elderly; long term care; costs; Sustainable Development Goals; public policies; human rights
Online: 18 August 2023 (09:47:03 CEST)
The rapid ageing of populations around the World is creating complex challenges for national governments. The establishment of sustainable and equitable long-term care systems for old and dependent people is one of the main issues of social policy in developed countries. The aim of this work is to define a cost model for residential and day care centres for dependent persons in Cantabria (Spain). The cost model will make it possible to establish the theoretical cost of attending to the needs of the different types of dependent persons in the different types of care centres, and the methodology used could be extrapolated to other regions. The daily cost per user for elderly residential care is €53.72. The cost per user in elderly day centres (5 days) is 32.56 euros. In residential centres for people with disabilities, the values range between €47.41 and €75.25 depending on the category of the centre. In three categories of centres the public price is not enough to cover the cost (physical disability, intellectual disability, mental illness – low care), and therefore the administration should reconsider their public prices for these kind of centres if they want to really contribute to the sustainability of these residential care centres. This research will have important implications for policy-makers in a context of fulfilment of SDGs and where better support for old and disabled people and their carers, as well as fair and efficient financing of social care services, are essential to address the current and future challenges of dependency.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0682.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: Duffing equation; deep learning; neural networks; recurrent neural networks; long short term memory.
Online: 8 August 2023 (12:58:08 CEST)
This study uses machine learning to predict the convergence results of the Duffing equation with and without damping. The Duffing equation represents a nonlinear second-order differential equation with interesting behavior in undamped free vibration and forced vibration with damping. Convergence alternates randomly between 1 and -1 in undamped free vibration, depending on initial conditions. For forced vibration with damping, multiple factors influence vibration patterns. We utilize the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method to collect convergence results for both conditions. Machine learning techniques, specifically the long short term memory (LSTM) and LSTM-Neural Network (LSTM-NN) method, are employed to predict these convergence values. The LSTM-NN model is a hybrid approach that combines the LSTM method with the addition of hidden layers of neurons. Both the LSTM and LSTM-NN models are thoroughly explored and analyzed in this research. The research process involves three stages: data preprocessing, training, and verification. The results show that the LSTM-NN model becomes more adept at predicting binary datasets, boasting an impressive accuracy of up to 98%. However, when it comes to predicting multiple solutions, the traditional LSTM method outperforms the LSTM-NN approach.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1975.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: manufacturing execution system; quality prediction; discrete manufacturing; Multivariate Long and short-term memory
Online: 28 June 2023 (09:28:24 CEST)
The deployment of a manufacturing execution system (MES) holds promising potential in facilitating the accumulation of a substantial amount of inspection data. Low quality levels in discrete manufacturing environments are the result of multi-factor coupling and failure to find quality issues in a timely manner within manufacturing settings may trigger the propagation of defects downstream. Currently, most of the inspection quality methods are direct measurement followed by manual judgment. The integration of deep learning methods provides a feasible way to identify defects in a timely manner, thus improving the acceptance rate of factories. This paper focuses on the design of a data-driven quality prediction and control model around discrete manufacturing characteristics, and use fuzzy theory to evaluate the quality level of production stages. Building Multivariate Long and short-term memory learning hidden quality representations to extract predictions from multi-level inspection data in manufacturing systems. Finally, by validating the data of actual produced water dispensers according to three evaluation indexes, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, the results show that Multivariate Long and short-term memory has better prediction performance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1233.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: Dynamic Friction Model; Commercial Stick-Slip Friction Models; Long-term Stick; Multibody Dynamics
Online: 19 June 2023 (09:44:43 CEST)
Friction has long been an important issue in multibody dynamics. Static friction models apply appropriate regularization techniques to convert the stick inequality and the non-smooth stick-slip transition of Coulomb’s approach into a continuous and smooth function of the sliding velocity. However, a regularized friction force is not able to maintain long-term stick. That is why, dynamic friction models were developed in the last decades. The friction force depends herein not only on the sliding velocity but also on internal states. The probably best known representative, the LuGre friction model, is based on a fictitious bristle but realizes a too simple approximation. The recently published second order dynamic friction model describes the dynamics of a fictitious bristle more accurately. Its performance is compared here to stick-slip friction models, developed and launched not long ago by commercial multibody software packages.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0370.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Nursing Keywords: COVID-19; visitation restrictions; psychological distress; cognitive disfunction; long-term care; rehabilitation ward
Online: 28 March 2022 (15:13:31 CEST)
This report is a narrative of a certified nurse working on a long-term rehabilitation ward for patients with dementia in Japan during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time visitation restrictions had been implemented to prevent the spread of COVID-19 causing psychological distress for patients and their families which nurses had to cope with . The nurse was interviewed twice September–October 2020. The recordings were transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. Three themes were identified relating to changes in care in response to the pandemic which nurses had to adapt to: the risk of collapse of family members’ roles, anxiety caused by patients forgetting family members and family memories and increased disorientation. During the pandemic, nursing care needs to adapt, ensuring that family attachments and ties continue and minimizing the disruption caused by the pandemic, while ensuring that everyone remains Covid-safe.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0140.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Vision And Graphics Keywords: Left ventricular ejection fraction; Left ventricle segmentation; Convolutional long short-term memory; Echocardiography
Online: 10 March 2022 (04:19:30 CET)
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. A key factor in assessing the risk of cardiovascular disease is left ventricular functional evaluation. Left ventricular (LV) systolic function is evaluated by measuring the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) using echocardiography data. Therefore, quick and accurate left ventricle segmentation is important for estimating the LVEF. However, it is difficult to accurately segment the left ventricle due to changes in the shape and area of the left ventricle during cardiac cycles. In this study, we proposed a framework that considers changes in the shape and area of the left ventricle during the cardiac cycle by applying the convolutional long short-term memory (CLSTM) approach. In addition, we evaluated the left ventricular segmentation and multidimensional quantification of the proposed system in comparison to manual and automated segmentation methods. In addition, to assess the validity of CLSTM, the values of multi-dimensional quantification metrics were compared and analyzed using graphs and Bland–Altman plots on a frame-by-frame basis. We demonstrated that the CLSTM method effectively segments the left ventricle by considering the LV activity. In conclusion, we demonstrated that LV segmentation based on our framework may be utilized to accurately estimate LVEF values.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0182.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: Electricity peak load; Taoussa’s energy sources; Long-term electricity demand planning; Scenarios simulation
Online: 12 October 2021 (12:53:37 CEST)
A long-term forecast study on the electricity demand of Taoussa of Mali is conducted in this paper, with various scenarios of socioeconomic and technological conditions. The analysis tool, which is applied in scenarios simulation, is the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The analysis results are annual electricity demand and peak load forecast for the electrification from the period 2020 to 2035. During the planning period, the analysis results show that the electricity demand will increase to 49.40 MW (332.57 GWh) for the low scenario (LS), 66.46 MW (472.61 GWh) for the reference scenario (RS), and 89.47 MW (635 GWh) for the high scenario (HS). In addition, the total electricity demand increased at an average rate of 8.13% in the LS, 10.31% in the RS and 12.56% in the HS in all sectors. The electricity peak demand is expected to grow at 7.92%, 10.53% and 12.91% corresponding to the three scenarios; in this case, the system peak demand in 2035 will increase to 64.88 MW for the LS, 92.2 MW for the RS and 126.22 MW, the days of peak load are between 17th -23rd in May. The Industry sector will be the biggest electricity consumer of Taoussa area.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0316.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: temporal lobe epilepsy; hippocampus; 4-aminopyridine; epilepsy model; long-term potentiation; AMPA receptor.
Online: 17 September 2021 (12:45:31 CEST)
Even brief epileptic seizures can lead to activity-dependent structural remodeling of neural circuitry. Animal models show that the functional plasticity of synapses and changes in the intrinsic excitability of neurons can be crucial for epileptogenesis. However, the exact mechanisms underlying epileptogenesis remain unclear. We induced epileptiform activity in rat hippocampal slices for 15 min using a 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) in vitro model and observed hippocampal hyperexcitability for at least 1 hour. We tested several possible mechanisms of this hyperexcitability, including changes in intrinsic membrane properties of neurons, presynaptic and postsynaptic alterations. Neither input resistance nor other essential biophysical properties of hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons were affected by epileptiform activity. The glutamate release probability also remained unchanged, as the frequency of miniature EPSCs and the paired amplitude ratio of evoked responses did not change after epileptiform activity. However, we found an increase in the AMPA/NMDA ratio, suggesting alterations in the properties of postsynaptic glutamatergic receptors. Thus, the increase in excitability of hippocampal neural networks is realized through postsynaptic mechanisms. In contrast, the intrinsic membrane properties of neurons and the probability of glutamate release from presynaptic terminals are not affected in a 4-AP model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0269.v1
Subject: Engineering, Transportation Science And Technology Keywords: Travel Time Prediction; Deep Learning; Long Short Term Memory Networks; transit; temporal correlation
Online: 9 April 2021 (15:04:06 CEST)
This study introduces a comparative analysis of two deep learning (multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN) and the long short term memory networks (LSTMN)) models for transit travel time prediction. The two models were trained and tested using one-year worth of data for a bus route in Blacksburg, Virginia. In this study, the travel time was predicted between each two successive stations to all the model to be extended to include bus dwell times. Additionally, two additional models were developed for each category (MLP of LSTM): one for only segments including controlled intersections (controlled segments) and another for segments with no control devices along them (uncontrolled segments). The results show that the LSTM models outperform the MLP models with a RMSE of 17.69 sec compared to 18.81 sec. When splitting the data into controlled and uncontrolled segments, the RMSE values reduced to 17.33 sec for the controlled segments and 4.28 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the LSTM model. Whereas, the RMSE values were 19.39 sec for the controlled segments and 4.67 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the MLP model. These results demonstrate that the uncertainty in traffic conditions introduced by traffic control devices has a significant impact on travel time predictions. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that the LSTMN is a promising tool that can has the ability to account for the temporal correlation within the data. The developed models are also promising tools for reasonable travel time predictions in transit applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0211.v2
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy And Rehabilitation Keywords: Rehabilitation, Stroke, Long-term care, Quality of life, Post-stroke checklist, Unmet needs
Online: 26 August 2019 (12:21:22 CEST)
Background: This study investigated the prevalence of worsening problems using Post Stroke Checklist (PSC) at 3, 6, and 12 months post-stroke and their associations with health-related quality of life. Methods: In stroke patients admitted between June 2014 and December 2015, PSC and EuroQol-5Dthree level (EQ-5D-3L) were assessed at post-stroke 3 (n=181), 6 (n=175), and 12months (n=89). The prevalence of worsening problems and its association withEQ-5D-3L at post-stroke 3 and 6months were analyzed. Results: An average of 0.59 (range 0–12), 1.47 (range 0–12), and 1.00 (range 0–10) worsening problems per patient was identified at 3, 6, and 12months after stroke, respectively. The most frequently and continuously identified worsening problems were mood disturbances (reported by 8.8%, 16.0% and13.5% of patients at 3, 6, and 12 months post-stroke, respectively). Worsening mobility was significantly associated with worse EQ-5D index at post-stroke 3 months (β,-0.583; 95% CI, -1.045 to -0.120). The worsening of mobility and communication was significantly associated with worse EQ-5D index at post-stroke 6 months (mobility: β,-0.170; 95% CI, -0.305 to -0.034, communication: β,-0.164; 95% CI, -0.309 to -0.020). Conclusions: PSC may be useful for the detection of various subjective worsening problems during serial clinical follow-up after stroke. Appropriate rehabilitation and management strategy to solve the identified problems could improve the quality of life in stroke survivors.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: riparian restoration; water quality; vegetation; geomorphological condition assessment; long-term monitoring; aerial imagery
Online: 25 April 2019 (12:50:44 CEST)
Riparian restoration is an important objective for landscape managers seeking to redress the widespread degradation of riparian areas and the ecosystem services they provide. This study investigated the long-term outcomes of ‘one-off’ restoration activities undertaken in the Upper Murrumbidgee Catchment, NSW, Australia. The objective of the restoration was to protect and enhance riparian vegetation and control erosion, and consequently reduce sediment and nutrient delivery into the Murrumbidgee River. To evaluate the outcomes 10 years after restoration, rapid riparian vegetation and geomorphological assessments were undertaken at 29 sites spanning the four different restoration methods used (at least five replicates per treatment), as well as at nine comparable untreated sites. We also trialed the use of aerial imagery to compare width of riparian canopy vegetation and projective foliage cover prior to restoration with that observed after 10 years. Aerial imagery demonstrated the width of riparian canopy vegetation and projective foliage cover increased in all restored sites, especially those with native plantings. The rapid assessment process indicated that 10 years after riparian restoration, the riparian vegetation was in a better condition at treated sites compared to untreated sites. Width of riparian canopy vegetation, native mid-storey cover, native canopy cover and seedling recruitment were significantly greater in treated sites compared to untreated sites. Geomorphological condition of treated sites was significantly better than untreated sites, demonstrating the importance of livestock exclusion to improve bank and channel condition. Our findings illustrate the value of ‘one-off’ restoration activities in achieving long-term benefits for riparian health. We have demonstrated that rapid assessments of the vegetation and geomorphological condition can be undertaken post-hoc to determine the long-term outcomes, especially when supported with analysis of historical aerial imagery.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0058.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Science Keywords: Smartphone sensing; mobile-social integration; automatic recognition; social data; long-term health monitoring
Online: 10 March 2017 (17:32:31 CET)
Over the past decades, overweight and obesity has become a global epidemic and the leading threat for death. To prevent the serious risk, an overweight or obese individual must apply a long-term weight-management strategy to control food intake and physical activities, which is however, not easy. Recently, with the advances of information technology, more and more people can use wearable devices and smartphones to obtain physical activity information, while they can also access various health-related information from Internet online social networks (OSNs). Nevertheless, there is a lack of an integrated approach that can combine these two methods in an efficient way. In this paper, we address this issue and propose a novel mobile-social framework for health recognition and recommendation, namely, H-Rec2. The main ideas of H-Rec2 include (1) to recognize the individual's health status using smartphone as a general platform, and (2) to recommend physical activity and food intake based on personal health information, life science principles, and health-related information obtained from OSNs. To demonstrate the potentials of the H-Rec2 framework, we develop a prototype that consists of four important components: (1) an activity recognition module that senses physical activity using accelerometer, (2) a health status modeling module that applies a novel algorithm to generate personalized health status index, (3) a restaurant information collection module that collects relevant information from OSN, and (4) a restaurant recommendation module that provides personalized and context-aware recommendation. To evaluate the prototype, we conduct both objective and subjective experiments, which confirm the performance and effectiveness of the proposed system.
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: wind power forecasting; short-term prediction; hybrid deep learning; wind farm; long short term memory; gated recurrent network and convolutional layers
Online: 22 September 2020 (03:45:59 CEST)
Accurate forecasting of wind power generation plays a key role in improving the operation and management of a power system network and thereby its reliability and security. However, predicting wind power is complex due to the existence of high non-linearity in wind speed that eventually relies on prevailing weather conditions. In this paper, a novel hybrid deep learning model is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of very short-term wind power generation for the Bodangora Wind Farm located in New South Wales, Australia. The hybrid model consists of convolutional layers, gated recurrent unit (GRU) layers and a fully connected neural network. The convolutional layers have the ability to automatically learn complex features from raw data while the GRU layers are capable of directly learning multiple parallel sequences of input data. The data sets of five-minute intervals from the wind farm are used in case studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model against other advanced existing models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), GRU, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM), which are tuned to optimise outcome. It is observed that the hybrid deep learning model exhibits superior performance over other forecasting models to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting, numerically, up to 1.59 per cent in mean absolute error, 3.73 per cent in root mean square error and 8.13 per cent in mean absolute percentage error.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1627.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Orthopedics And Sports Medicine Keywords: Transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion; TLIF; Unilateral instrumentation; Bilateral instrumentation; Coronal alignment; Long-term outcome
Online: 26 September 2023 (02:48:02 CEST)
Background and Objective: There is a paucity of literature comparing unilateral instrumented transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (UITLIF) with bilateral instrumented TLIF (BITLIF) regarding radiological alignment, including the coronal balance, even though UITLIF might have asymmetric characteristics in the coronal plane. This retrospective study aimed to compare the clinical and long-term radiological outcomes of 1-level UITLIF and BITLIF in lumbar degenerative diseases (LDD). Materials and Methods: Patients who underwent 1-level UITLIF with two rectangular polyetheretherketone (PEEK) cages or BITLIF with ≥ 5 years of follow-up at a single hospital were included. We compared the clinical and radiological outcomes between the UITLIF and BITLIF. Results: In total, 63 and 111 patients who underwent UITLIF and BITLIF, respectively, were enrolled. The median follow-up was 85.55 months (range: 60–130). The UITLIF group had a significantly shorter operation time (185.0 [170.0–210.0] vs. 225.0 [200.0–265.0], p < 0.001) and lower estimated blood loss (300.0 [250.0–500.0] vs. 550.0 [400.0–800.0], p < 0.001) than BITLIF group. Regarding the clinical outcomes, there were no significant differences in the intermittent claudication score (p = 0.495) and Kirkaldy–Willis criteria (p = 0.707) at 1 year postoperatively. The interval changes of the local coronal Cobb angle at the index level, L1-S1 lordotic angle, and coronal off-balance from the immediate postoperative radiograph to the last follow-up were not significantly different (p = 0.687, p = 0.701, and p = 0.367, respectively). Conclusion: UITLIF with two rectangular PEEK cages is a viable option for providing comparable clinical outcomes and radiological longevity to BITLIF in 1-level LDD. In addition, UITLIF has advantages over BITLIF in terms of operative time and blood loss.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0108.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Soil Science Keywords: soil organic matter; greenhouse gases; climatic change scenarios; adaptation; long-term experiment; black fallow
Online: 4 September 2023 (15:45:06 CEST)
Arable Сhernozems with high SOC contents have the potential to be significant sources of GHGs, and climate change is likely to increase SOC losses, making the issue of carbon sequestration in this region even more important. The prospect of maintaining SOC stock or increasing it by 4% an-nually under planned management practice modifications for the period up to 2090 was evaluated using a long-term experiment on Haplic Chernozem in the Rostov Region, Russia. In this study, we used the RothC model to evaluate SOC dynamics for three treatments with mineral and organic fertilization under two adaptation scenarios vs. business as usual, as well as under two climate change scenarios. Correction of crop rotation and the application of organic fertilizers at high rates are essential tools for maintaining and increasing SOC stocks. This can maintain SOC stock at the level of 84–87 Mg∙ha-1 until the middle of the 21st century, as the first half of the century is con-sidered the most promising period for the introduction of adaptation measures for the additional accumulation of SOC on Chernozems. Part of the additional accumulated SOC is expected to be lost before 2090.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1605.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: air pollution; long-term exposure; particles; nitrogen oxides; Cox regression; proportional hazard; hazard ratio
Online: 23 August 2023 (09:12:45 CEST)
In this study, long-term mortality effects associated with exposure to PM10, PM2.5, BC (black carbon), and NOx were analyzed in a cohort in southern Sweden during the period from 1991‒2016. Participants (those residing in Malmö, Sweden, born between 1923‒1950) were randomly recruited from 1991‒1996. At enrollment, 30,438 participants underwent a health screening, which consisted of questionnaires about lifestyle and diet, a clinical examination, and blood sampling. Mortality data were retrieved from the Swedish national cause of death register. The modeled concentrations of PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 10 µm), PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 µm), BC (black carbon), and NOx (nitrogen oxides) at the cohort participants' home addresses were used to assess air pollution exposure. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the associations between long-term exposure to PM10, PM2.5, BC, and NOx and the time until death among the participants during the period from 1991‒2016. The hazard ratios (HRs) associated with an interquartile range (IQR) increase in each air pollutant were calculated based on the exposure lag windows of the same year (lag0), 1‒5 years (lag1‒5), and 6‒10 years (lag6‒10). Three models were used with varying adjustments for possible confounders including both single-pollutant estimates and two-pollutant estimates. With adjustments for all covariates, the HRs for PM10, PM2.5, BC, and NOx in the single-pollutant models at lag1‒5 were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02‒1.11), 1.01 (95% CI: 0.95‒1.08), 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04‒1.11), and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07‒1.16) per IQR increase, respectively. The HRs were in most cases decreased by the inclusion of a larger number of covariates in the models. The most robust associations were shown for NOx, with statistically significant positive HRs in all models. An overall conclusion is that road traffic-related pollutants had a significant association with mortality in the cohort.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0504.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: fly ash-based geopolymer composite; long-term properties under cyclic load; fibre-reinforced geopolymer
Online: 8 August 2023 (05:26:25 CEST)
This study investigates the cyclic load application impact on fly ash-based geopolymer composites that are reinforced with a low amount of fibre reinforcement. For reinforcement purposes, PVA and steel fibres are used. For testing purposes, four geopolymer composite mixes were made, 3 of which had fibre reinforcement. Simultaneously specimens were tested for shrinkage, static load-induced creep, and cyclic load-induced creep. For static and cyclic creep testing, specimens were loaded with 20% of their strength. For cyclic creep testing, load application and release cycles were seven days long. When each cycle was introduced, the load was added in steps. In 5 minutes, by 25% steps of the necessary load, the specimens were loaded or unloaded. Only plain specimens show that static creep strains are within cyclic creep strains. For all the other specimens, the static load is higher than the cyclic load-induced creep amplitude. Also, 1% PVA fibre-reinforced specimens show the most elastic characteristics under cyclic load, and 1% steel fibre-reinforced specimens appear to be the most resistant to the cyclic load introduction.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0135.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: Energy consumption prediction; Time-series forecasting; Forecasting Building Energy Consumption; Long Short-Term memory
Online: 2 June 2023 (05:11:04 CEST)
The global demand for energy has been steadily increasing due to population growth, urbanization, and industrialization. Numerous researchers worldwide are striving to create precise forecasting models for predicting energy consumption to manage supply and demand effectively. In this research, a time-series forecasting model based on multivariate multilayered long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed for forecasting energy consumption and tested using data obtained from commercial buildings in Melbourne, Australia: the Advanced Technologies Center, Advanced Manufacturing and Design Center, and Knox Innovation, Opportunity, and Sustainability Center buildings. This research specifically identifies the best forecasting method for subtropical conditions and evaluates its performance by comparing it with the most used methods at present, including LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, and linear regression. The proposed multivariate multilayered LSTM model was assessed by comparing mean average error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values with and without labeled time. Results indicate that the proposed model exhibits optimal performance with improved precision and accuracy. Specifically, the proposed LSTM model achieved a decrease in MAE by 30%, RMSE by 25%, and MAPE by 20% compared to the LSTM method. Moreover, it outperformed the bidirectional LSTM method with a reduction in MAE by 10%, RMSE by 20%, and MAPE by 18%. Furthermore, the proposed model surpassed linear regression with a decrease in MAE by 2%, RMSE by 7%, and MAPE by 10%. These findings highlight the significant performance increase achieved by the proposed multivariate multilayered LSTM model in energy consumption forecasting.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0037.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Language And Linguistics Keywords: non-native speech learning; talker variability; phonetically-irrelevant variability; long-term retention; cognitive abilities
Online: 2 November 2022 (03:05:23 CET)
Talker variability has been reported to facilitate generalization and retention of speech learning, but is also shown to place demands on cognitive resources. Our recent study provided evidence that phonetically-irrelevant acoustic variability in single-talker (ST) speech is sufficient to induce equivalent amounts of learning to the use of multiple-talker (MT) training. This study is a follow-up contrasting MT versus ST training with varying degrees of temporal exaggeration to examine how cognitive measures of individual learners may influence the role of input variability in immediate learning and long-term retention. Native Chinese-speaking adults were trained on the English /i/-/ɪ/ contrast. We assessed the trainees’ working memory and selective attention before training. Trained participants showed retention of more native-like cue weighting in both perception and production regardless of talker variability condition. The ST training group showed long-term benefit in word identification, whereas the MT training group did not retain the improvement. The results demonstrate the role of phonetically-irrelevant variability in robust speech learning and modulatory functions of nonlinguistic working memory and selective attention, highlighting the necessity to consider the interaction between input characteristics, task difficulty, and individual differences in cognitive abilities in assessing learning outcomes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0004.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: Electrical Power Grids; Fault Forecasting; Long Short-Term Memory; Time Series Forecasting; Wavelet Transform
Online: 3 October 2022 (10:36:14 CEST)
The electric power distribution utility is responsible for providing energy to consumers in a continuous and stable way, failures in the electrical power system reduce the reliability indexes of the grid, directly harming its performance. For this reason, there is a need for failure prediction to reestablish power in the shortest possible time. Considering an evaluation of the number of failures over time, this paper proposes to perform a failure prediction during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil (2020) to verify the feasibility of using time series forecasting models for fault prediction. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model will be evaluated to obtain a forecast result that can be used by the electric power utility to organize the maintenance teams. The Wavelet transform shows to be promising in improving the predictive ability of the LSTM, making the Wavelet LSTM model suitable for the study at hand. The results show that the proposed approach has better results regarding the evaluation of the error in prediction and has robustness when a statistical analysis is performed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0279.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: Long Term Evolution; Radio Resource Management; Packet Scheduling; Cognitive Radio; Multi agent Qlearning; Matlab
Online: 21 June 2022 (03:57:22 CEST)
In this paper, we propose, implement, and test two novel downlink LTE scheduling algorithms. The implementation and testing of these algorithms were in Matlab, and they are based on the use of Reinforcement Learning, more specifically, the Qlearning technique for scheduling two types of users. The first algorithm is called a Collaborative scheduling algorithm, and the second algorithm is called a Competitive scheduling algorithm. The first type of the scheduled users is the Primary Users, and they are the licensed subscribers that pay for their service. The second type of the scheduled users is the Secondary Users, and they could be unlicensed subscribers that dont pay for their service, device to device communications, or sensors. Each user whether it is a primary or secondary is considered as an agent. In the Collaborative scheduling algorithm, the primary user agents will collaborate in order to make a joint scheduling decision about allocating the resource blocks to each one of them, then the secondary user agents will compete among themselves to use the remaining resource blocks. In the Competitive scheduling algorithm, the primary user agents will compete among themselves over the available resources, then the secondary user agents will compete among themselves over the remaining resources. Experimental results show that both scheduling algorithms converged to almost ninety percent utilization of the spectrum, and provided fair shares of the spectrum among users.
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Computational fluid dynamic; Long short term memory; Vortex bladeless wind turbine; Prediction; Correlation matrix.
Online: 9 June 2021 (07:38:21 CEST)
Energy harvesting from wind turbines has been explored by researchers for more than a century from conventional turbines up to the latest bladeless turbines. Amongst these bladeless turbines, vortex bladeless wind turbine (VBT) harvests energy from oscillation of a turbine body. Due to the novelty of this science and the widespread researches around the world, one of the most important issues is to optimize and predict produced power. To enhance the produced output electrical power of VBT, the fluid-solid interactions (FSI) were analyzed to collect a dataset for predicting procedure. Long short-term memory (LSTM) method has been used to predict the produced power of VBT from the collected data. The reason of choosing LSTM from various artificial neural network methods is that the parameters of VBT study are all time- dependent and the LSTM is one of the most accruable algorithms for predicting time series data. In order to find the relationship between the parameter and the variables used in this research, a correlation matrix was presented. According to the value of 0.3 for the root mean square error (RMSE), a comparative analysis between the simulation results and its prediction shows that the LSTM method is very accurate for these types of research. Furthermore, the LSTM method has significantly reduced the computation time so that the prediction time of desired values has been reduced from an average of 2 and a half hours to two minutes. Also, one of the most important achievements of this study is to suggest a mathematical relation of VBT output power which helps to extend it in a different size of VBT with a high range of parameter variations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0302.v2
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: Searaser; Flow-3D; Prediction; Long short term memory; deep neural network; Root mean error.
Online: 13 April 2021 (09:51:25 CEST)
Accurate forecasts of ocean waves energy can not only reduce costs for investment but it is also essential for management and operation of electrical power. This paper presents an innovative approach based on the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the power generation of an economical wave energy converter named “Searaser”. The data for analyzing is provided by collecting the experimental data from another study and the exerted data from numerical simulation of searaser. The simulation is done with Flow-3D software which has high capability in analyzing the fluid solid interactions. The lack of relation between wind speed and output power in previous studies needs to be investigated in this field. Therefore, in this study the wind speed and output power are related with a LSTM method. Moreover, it can be inferred that the LSTM Network is able to predict power in terms of height more accurately and faster than the numerical solution in a field of predicting. The network output figures show a great agreement and the root mean square is 0.49 in the mean value related to the accuracy of LSTM method. Furthermore, the mathematical relation between the generated power and wave height was introduced by curve fitting of the power function to the result of LSTM method.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0302.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: carbon-ion radiotherapy; uterine cervical cancer; adenocarcinoma; long-term follow-up; cisplatin; concurrent chemoradiotherapy
Online: 12 April 2021 (12:51:36 CEST)
The clinical significance of carbon-ion radiotherapy (CIRT) for adenocarcinoma (AC) of the uterine cervix has been assessed in several single-institutional studies. To validate the significance, we conducted a multi-institutional survey of CIRT for locally advanced AC (LAAC) of the uterine cervix. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical outcomes of patients with stage IIB–IVA LAAC of the uterine cervix who underwent chemo-CIRT or CIRT alone between April 2010 and April 2016. Patients received 74.4 Gy (relative biological effectiveness [RBE]) in 20 fractions of CIRT or 55.2 Gy (RBE) in 16 fractions of CIRT plus 3 sessions of brachytherapy. Patients aged ≤70 years with adequate bone marrow and organ function were administered cisplatin weekly (40 mg/m2 per week for up to 5 weeks). Fifty-five patients were enrolled in this study. The median follow-up period was 67.5 months. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and local control (LC) rates were 68.6% and 65.2%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that the initial tumor response within 6 months was significantly associated with LC and OS. The present study represents promising outcomes of CIRT or chemo-CIRT for LAAC of the uterine cervix, especially in the cases showing initial rapid regression of the tumor.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0205.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: Neural Networks; Long-Short Term Model; Water demand; Forecasting; Sustainable development goals; Water Goal.
Online: 5 November 2020 (10:17:30 CET)
Climate change has become the greatest threat to the survival of world and its ecosystem. With the irreversible impact on the ecosystem, problems like rise in sea level, food-insecurity, natural resources scarcity, seasonal disorders have increased over the past few years. Among these problems, the issue of water scarcity due to the lack of water resources and global warming has plagued several nations. Owing to the rising concerns over water scarcity United Nations (UN) has acknowledged water as a primary resource to the development of societies under the ‘Water Goal’ of the sustainable development goals. As the changing climate and intermittent availability of water resources pose major challenges to forecast demand, especially in countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which has one of the highest per capita residential water consumption rates in the world. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an accurate water demand forecasting technique that incorporates all significant factors to predict the future water demands of the UAE. The forecasting model used is the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), with the factors considered are mean temperature, mean rainfall, relative humidity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and population growth. The LSTM model predicts the water demand forecasting in the UAE showing that the future demand will decrease from 1821 million m3 in 2018 to 1809.9 million m3 in 2027.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0176.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: soil health; soil organic matter; greenhouse gases; climatic change scenarios; Chernozems; long-term experiment
Online: 8 September 2020 (06:11:53 CEST)
Organic carbon (OC) accumulation in soil mitigates greenhouse gases emission and improves soil health. We aimed to quantify the dynamics of OC stock in soils and to justify technologies that allow annual increasing OC stock in the arable soil layer by 4‰. We based the study on a field experiment established in 1936 in the 9-field crop rotation with a fallow on Chernozem in European Russia. The RothC version 26.3 was used for the reproducing and forecasting OC dynamics. In all fertilizer applications at FYM background, there was a decrease in the OC stock with preferable loss of active OC, except the period 1964-71 with 2-5‰ annual OC increase. The model estimated the annual C input in the arable soil layer as 1,900 kg·ha-1. For increasing OC stocks by 4‰ per year, one should raise input to 2400 kg·ha-1. Simulation was made for 2016-2090 using climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Crop rotation without fallowing provided an initial increase of 3‰ and 6‰ of stocks in the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios accordingly, followed by a loss in accumulated OC. Simulation demonstrates difficulties to increase OC concentration in Chernozems under intensive farming and potential capacity to rise OC stock through yield management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0295.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Hepatitis B virus; hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 alpha; long-term infection; ERK signaling pathway
Online: 25 January 2020 (15:25:57 CET)
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major factor in development of various liver diseases such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Among HBV encoded proteins, HBV X protein (HBx) is known to play key role in development of HCC. Hepatocyte nuclear factor 4α (HNF4α) is a nuclear transcription factor which is critical for hepatocyte differentiation. However, the expression level as well as its regulatory mechanism in HBV infection have yet to be clarified. Here, we observed the suppression of HNF4α in cells which stably express HBV whole genome or HBx protein alone, while transient transfection of HBV replicon or HBx plasmid had no effect on the HNF4α level. Importantly, in the stable HBV- or HBx-expressing hepatocytes, the downregulated level of HNF4α was restored by inhibiting ERK signaling pathway. Our data showed that HNF4α was suppressed during long-term HBV infection in cultured HepG2-NTCP cells as well as in mouse model following hydrodynamic injection of pAAV-HBV or in mice intravenously infected with rAAV-HBV. Importantly, HNF4α downregulation increased cell proliferation which contributed to the formation and development of tumor in xenograft nude mice. The data presented here provided several proofs for the effect of HBV infection in manipulating HNF4α regulatory pathway in HCC development.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0097.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: deep learning; automatic modulation classification; classifier fusion; convolutional neural network; long short-term memory
Online: 11 January 2018 (04:47:00 CET)
Deep learning has recently attracted much attention due to its excellent performance in processing audio, image, and video data. However, few studies are devoted to the field of automatic modulation classification (AMC). It is one of the most well-known research topics in communication signal recognition, which remains challenging for traditional methods due to the complex disturbance from other sources. This paper proposes a heterogeneous deep model fusion (HDMF) method to solve the problem in a unified framework. The contributions include: 1) The convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) are combined by two different ways without prior knowledge involved; 2) A large database, including eleven types of single-carrier modulation signals with various noises as well as a fading channel, is collected with various signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) based on a real geographical environment; and 3) Experimental results demonstrate that HDMF is super capable of copping with the AMC problem, and achieves much better performance when compared with the independent network. The source code and the database will be publically available.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0789.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: accuracy; data-driven approach, feed forward neural network; gated recurrent unit; hyper-parameters tuning; long short-term memory; short-term demand forecasting
Online: 12 July 2023 (11:29:06 CEST)
Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor to optimize power generation, consumption, saving energy resources, and determining the energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power which are highly non-linear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases uncertainty in generation, adds the challenges for precise forecast. To tackle these challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in literature. We have developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) based deep learning models that can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on the pattern of dataset, four different scenarios were developed and two best scenarios were selected for prediction. Dozens of models were developed and tested in deep AI networks. In the first scenario (Scenario1), data for weekdays excluding holidays was taken and in the second scenario (Scenario2) all the data in the basket was taken. Remaining two scenarios, weekends and holidays were tested and neglected because of their high prediction error. To find the optimal configuration, models were trained and tested within a large space of alternatives called hyper-parameters. In this study, an Aritificial Neural Network (ANN) based Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 while a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) showed the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. While comparing the accuracy, the lowest MAPE of 2.47% was obtained from FNN for Scenario1. When evaluating the same testing dataset (non-holidays) of Scenario2, the RNN-GRU model achieved the lowest MAPE of 2.71%. Therefore, we can conclude that grouping of weekdays as Senario1 prepared by excluding the holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the single group approach used in Scenario2, where all the dataset is considered together. However, Scenario2 is equally important to predict the demand for weekends and holidays.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1232.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: lightning prediction; deep learning; spatio-temporal features; convolutional neural networks; long short-term memory networks
Online: 19 September 2023 (13:32:06 CEST)
The escalation of climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events have amplified the importance of precise and timely lightning prediction. This predictive capability is pivotal for the preservation of life, protection of property, and maintenance of crucial infrastructure safety. Recently, the rapid advancement and successful application of data-driven deep learning across diverse sectors, particularly in computer vision and spatio-temporal data analysis, have opened up innovative avenues for enhancing both the accuracy and efficiency of lightning prediction. This article presents a comprehensive review of the broad spectrum of existing lightning prediction methodologies. Starting from traditional numerical forecasting techniques, we traverse the path to the most recent breakthroughs in deep learning research. We encapsulate these diverse methods, shedding light on their progression and summarizing their capabilities, while also predicting their future development trajectories. This exploration is designed to enhance our understanding of these methodologies, allowing us to better utilize their strengths, navigate their limitations, and potentially integrate these techniques to create novel and powerful lightning prediction tools. Through such endeavors, our aim is to bolster our preparedness against the growing unpredictability of our climate and ensure a proactive stance towards lightning prediction.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0676.v1
Subject: Engineering, Mechanical Engineering Keywords: remaining useful life; maximum correlation kurtosis deconvolution; multi-scale permutation entropy; long short-term memory
Online: 11 September 2023 (11:30:22 CEST)
The performance of bearings plays a pivotal role in determining the dependability and security of rotating machinery. In intricate systems demanding exceptional reliability and safety, the ability to accurately forecast fault occurrences during operation holds profound significance. Such predictions serve as invaluable guides for crafting well-considered reliability strategies and executing maintenance practices aimed at enhancing reliability. In order to ensure the reliability of bearing operation, this article investigates the application of three advanced techniques—Maximum Correlation Kurtosis Deconvolution (MCKD), Multi-Scale Permutation Entropy (MPE), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks—for the prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of rolling bearings. Each technique's principles, methodologies, and applications are comprehensively reviewed, offering insights into their respective strengths and limitations. Case studies and experimental evaluations are presented to assess their performance in RUL prediction. Findings reveal that MCKD enhances fault signatures, MPE captures complexity, and LSTM excels in modeling temporal patterns. The root mean square error of the prediction results is 0.007. The fusion of these techniques offers a comprehensive approach to RUL prediction, leveraging their unique attributes for more accurate and reliable predictions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.2161.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Water Science And Technology Keywords: CE-QUAL-W2; Daecheong Reservoir; Long short-term memory; Process guided deep learning; Water temperature
Online: 1 August 2023 (07:16:22 CEST)
Data-driven models (DDMs) are extensively used in environmental modeling but face challenges due to limited training data and potential results not adhering to physical laws. To address this challenge, this study developed a process-guided deep learning (PGDL) model, integrating a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and a process-based model (PBM), CE-QUAL-W2 (W2), to predict water temperature in a stratified reservoir. The PGDL included an energy constraint term from W2's thermal energy equilibrium into the cost function of the LSTM, besides the mean square error term. In PGDL, parameters were optimized by penalizing deviations from the energy law, ensuring adherence to physical constraints. Compared to LSTM, PGDL demonstrated enhanced satisfaction with the energy balance and superior performance in water temperature prediction. Even with less field data for training, PGDL outperformed both LSTM and calibrated W2 after pre-training with data generated using the uncalibrated W2. Therefore, integration of DDM with a PBM ensured physical consistency in water temperature prediction for complex stratified reservoirs with limited data. Moreover, pre-training the PGDL with PBM proved highly effective in mitigating bias and variance due to insufficient field measurement data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0124.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: Digital Systems; Educational Systems; State-space Models; Optimal Control; Long-term learning prediction; Learning Analytics
Online: 5 August 2022 (14:37:36 CEST)
Every month teachers face the dilemma of what exercises should their students practice, and what their consequences are on long-term learning. Since teachers prefer to pose their own exercises, this generates a large number of questions, each one attempted by a small number of students. Thus, we couldn’t use models based on big data such as deep learning. Instead, we developed a simple to understand state-space model that predicts end-of-year national test scores. We used 2,386 online fourth-grade mathematic questions designed by teachers and each attempted by some of the 500 students in 24 low socioeconomic schools. We found that the state-space model predictions improved month-by-month and that in most months it outperformed linear regression models. Moreover, the state-space estimator provides for each month a direct mechanism to simulate different practice strategies and compute their impact on the end-of-year standardized national test. We built iso-impact curves based on two critical variables: the number of questions solved correctly in the first attempt and the total number of exercises attempted. This allows the teacher to visualize the trade-off between asking students to do exercises more carefully or doing more exercises. To the best of our knowledge, this model is the first of its kind in education. It is a novel tool that supports teachers drive whole classes to achieve long-term learning targets.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0237.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: Software reliability; deep learning; long short-term memory; project similarity and clustering; cross-project prediction
Online: 18 October 2021 (10:33:39 CEST)
Software reliability is an important characteristic for ensuring the qualities of software products. Predicting the potential number of bugs from the beginning of a development project allows practitioners to make the appropriate decisions regarding testing activities. In the initial development phases, applying traditional software reliability growth models (SRGMs) with limited past data does not always provide reliable prediction result for decision making. To overcome this, herein we propose a new software reliability modeling method called deep cross-project software reliability growth model (DC-SRGM). DC-SRGM is a cross-project prediction method that uses features of previous projects’ data through project similarity. Specifically, the proposed method applies cluster-based project selection for training data source and modeling by a deep learning method. Experiments involving 15 real datasets from a company and 11 open source software datasets show that DC-SRGM can more precisely describe the reliability of ongoing development projects than existing traditional SRGMs and the LSTM model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0011.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Elderly with dementia; needs; utilization; essential care service package; long-term care system; health policy
Online: 1 February 2021 (11:24:37 CET)
Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) remain a public health challenge in developing counties. We developed a needs-based essential care service package (ECSP) for care planning of persons living with dementia (PLWD) using a cross-sectional survey among PLWD in institutions in six cities in China (n= 1,299). Face-to-face interviews were conducted with caregivers of PLWD by trained staff between 2018 and 2019. Care service needs and utilization by the level of cognitive impairment were summarized. The average age of PLWD was 80.7 years. 76% of participants had severe cognitive impairment. The needs-based ECSP with 30 service items would be sufficient in supporting care services of PLWD in China, of which seven items are core care. The selection plan for ECSP at different levels is designed as “General Care Services + Selective Care Services”, in which service items for low-, mid-and high-level care for PLWD are 7+3, 7+6, and 7+10, respectively. The findings provide the first large-scale data on service needs and utilization of PLWD in mainland China. The ECSP for PLWD advanced in the paper was a practicable and effective quantitative management means. It is deserved to application in a large scale.
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: generational responsibility; sustainable consumption; economic crises; long‐term orientation; collectivism; corporate social responsibility; competitive strategies
Online: 24 December 2020 (14:23:51 CET)
The rise of Asian and the stagnation of Western middle classes over the last thirty years have resulted in gradual convergence of income of large parts of the world’s population. Recent global crises ‐ the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic ‐ have led to a decline in income and increase in income uncertainty. Rise in consumption of lower quality goods of shorter durability and an overall decline in demand and economic activity resulted as challenges to the global economy. In this paper, we argue that generational responsibility in consumption can be an environmentally sustainable response to crises which enables the economies to overcome the crisis of confidence and reaffirms community ties. As an element of long‐term orientation in consumption, generational responsibility is a cultural phenomenon dependent on solidarity within family and the wider community. It is characterized by consideration of consequences of consumption choices on the environment, and the abundance of savings and the usability of goods to be inherited by future generations. For companies, willing to revisit their traditional business models and incorporate principles of sustainability in their competitive strategies, promotion of generational responsibility can become a new source of competitive advantage and a driver of economic recovery.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0527.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: epilepsy; seizure detection; electroencephalography; classification with a deferral option; home monitoring; long-term monitoring; wearables
Online: 21 December 2020 (13:40:43 CET)
Wearable technology will become available and allow prolonged electroencephalography (EEG) monitoring in the home environment of patients with epilepsy. Neurologists analyse the EEG visually and annotate all seizures, which patients often under report. Visual analysis of a 24 hour EEG recording typically takes one to two hours. Reliable automated seizure detection algorithms will be crucial to reduce this analysis. We study a dataset of behind-the-ear EEG measurements. Our first aim was to develop a methodology to reduce the EEG dataset by classifying part of the data automatically, while retaining 100% detection sensitivity (DS). Prediction confidences are determined by temperature scaling of the classification model outputs and trust scores. A DS of approximately 90% (99%) can be achieved when automatically classifying around 90% (60%) of the data. Perfect DS can be achieved when automatically classifying 50% of the data. Our second contribution demonstrates that a common modelling strategy, where predictions from several short EEG segments are used to obtain a final prediction, can be improved by filtering out untrustworthy segments with low trust scores. The false detection rate shows a relative decrease between 21% and 43%, and the DS shows a small increase or decrease.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0133.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: soil organic carbon; long-term experiments; RothC model; climate change; "4 per 1000" initiative; Retisols
Online: 7 December 2020 (09:36:42 CET)
Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in arable soils is a challenging goal for soil management. Multiple factors should be considered for the prediction of the soil capacity to fix atmospheric carbon. In this study, we focused on the effect of crop rotation and previous land use for future carbon sequestration on two experimental fields with identical soils (Retisols) and input of organic fertilizers. We analyzed the SOC dynamics and used the Roth C model to forecast SOC changes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Our experimental and modelling results indicated a consistent increase in SOC stocks and the stable fractions of soil organic matter (SOM). The increase in SOC was higher in the experiment with the crop-grassland rotation that in the experiment with a rotation of row crops and barley. With similar total SOC stocks, the efficiency of soil management differed as reflected by the contrasting composition of SOM, as fields with a long cultivation history showed higher SOM stability. The goal of 4‰ annual increase of SOC stocks may be reached under crop- grassland rotation in 2020-40 and 2080-90 when applying mineral or organic fertilizer system for scenario RCP4.5, and mineral fertilizer system in 2080-2090 for scenario RCP8.5.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0628.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Air pollution; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs); Adverse Perinatal Out-come; Inhalation Intake model; Long-term Exposure
Online: 11 September 2023 (07:48:35 CEST)
Air pollution includes particle-bound Polycyclic Aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) which eventually reach the placenta triggering adverse perinatal outcomes by long-term exposure. Late-ly, air pollution has increased over the Metropolitan Area of Medellin-Colombia (MAMC) but its effects on pregnancy are still unknown. In this research, we made a real-time analysis of airborne total PAHs using a photoelectric sensor for residential places influenced by industrial and traffic sources contrasting southern and northern MAMC during the second peak of the bimodal ten-dency for PM2.5 emissions in this region. Additionally, we analyzed individual PAHs by GC/MS coupled to pressurized hot water extraction methodology. Data was applied in an Inhalation In-take Model to assess pregnancy exposure. The average concentration of PAHs over southern MAMC was three times higher than over northern MAMC where the abortion rate has been 1.4 times higher presented in database. Previous research found that PAHs act as an Endo-crine-Disrupting Chemical (EDC) during pregnancy and even heavy congeners could reside in umbilical cord blood. Finally, the annual series of abortion rates in the MAMC showed a signifi-cant correlation with the annual average levels of PM2.5 which are associate to PAHs. Although this significant correlation does not imply causality, our results suggest an important connection between both variables. This latter finding opens a gap in deeply understanding how regions with high PAHs-convergence influences abortion rates in MAMC.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0783.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: cancer, cancer survivor, exercise, athletes, competition, long-term effects, late effects, living with and beyond cancer
Online: 31 May 2021 (14:02:13 CEST)
Athletes living with and beyond cancer can continue to train and, in some cases, compete during treatment. Following cancer treatment, athletes can return to competitive sport but need to learn to adapt their physical strength and training to lingering effects of cancer. It is critical for oncology healthcare providers to use the principles of assess, refer and advise to exercise oncology programs that are appropriate for the individual. Managing side effects of treatment is key to being able to train during and immediately following cancer treatment. Keen attention to fatigue is important at any point in the cancer spectrum to avoid overtraining and optimize the effects of training.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0315.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computer Science Keywords: Intrusion Detection Systems; Anomaly detection; Sequential analysis; Random Forest; Multi-Layer Perceptron; Long-Short Term Memory
Online: 14 December 2020 (09:36:58 CET)
With the latest advances in information and communication technologies, greater amounts of sensitive user and corporate information are constantly shared across the network making it susceptible to an attack that can compromise data confidentiality, integrity and availability. Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) are important security mechanisms that can perform a timely detection of malicious events through the inspection of network traffic or host-based logs. Throughout the years, many machine learning techniques have proven to be successful at conducting anomaly detection but only a few considered the sequential nature of data. This work proposes a sequential approach and evaluates the performance of a Random Forest (RF), a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) on the CIDDS-001 dataset. The resulting performance measures of this particular approach are compared with the ones obtained from a more traditional one, that only considers individual flow information, in order to determine which methodology best suits the concerned scenario. The experimental outcomes lead to believe that anomaly detection can be better addressed from a sequential perspective and that the LSTM is a very reliable model for acquiring sequential patterns in network traffic data, achieving an accuracy of 99.94% and a f1-score of 91.66%.