The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, apparently the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models - in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy - is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with (log-)normal distribution, the Lee-Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee-Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed.

The article is devoted to infinitesimal transformations. We have obtained that LCK-manifolds do not admit nontrivial infinitesimal projective transformations. Then we study infinitesimal conformal transformations of LCK-manifolds. We have found the expression for the Lie derivative of a Lee form. Also we have obtained the system of partial differential equations for the transformations, and explored its integrability conditions. Hence we have got the necessary and sufficient conditions in order that the an LCK-manifold admits a group of conformal motions. Also we have calculated the number of parameters which the group depends on. We have proved that a group of conformal motions admitted by an LCK-manifold is isomorphic to a homothetic group admitted by corresponding K\"{a}hlerian metric. We also established that an isometric group of an LCK-manifold is isomorphic to a some subgroup of homothetic group of the coresponding local K\"{a}hlerian metric.