Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of links between satellite-measured vegetation vigor and climate variables in Armenian mountain grassland ecosystems in years 1984–2018. NDVI is derived from MODIS and Landsat data, temperature and precipitation data are from meteorological stations. Two study sites were selected, representing arid and semi-arid grassland vegetation types, respectively. Various trend estimators including Mann-Kendall (MK) and derivatives were combined for vegetation change analysis at different time scales. Results suggest that temperature and precipitation had negative and positive impacts on vegetation growth, respectively, in both areas. NDVI-to-precipitation correlation was significant but with an apparent time-lag effect that was further investigated. No significant general changes were observed in vegetation along the observed period. Further comparisons between results from corrected and uncorrected data led us to conclude that MODIS and Landsat data with BRDF, topographic and atmospheric corrections applied are best suited for analyzing relationships between NDVI and climatic factors for the 2000-2018 period in grassland at a very local scale, but in the absence of correction tools and information, uncorrected data can still provide meaningful results. Future refinements will include removal of anthropogenic impact, and deeper investigation of time-lag effects of climatic factors on vegetation dynamics.

Background: Monoclonal antibodies against PD-1 or PD-L1 are established in clinical practice for the treatment of both early and advanced/metastatic triple-negative breast cancer. Beyond the established immune checkpoints (ICPs) (PD-1 and CTLA-4) additional ICPs such as lymphocyte activation gene-3 (LAG-3) are subject of current research. In the present retrospective gene ex-pression analysis, we evaluated the prognostic significance of LAG-3 in 461 patients with early breast cancer. In addition, we examined whether there was a correlation between the different ICPs and CD8 expression. Methods: Using microarray-based gene expression analysis, we examined the prognostic signif-icance for metastasis-free survival (MFS) of LAG-3 mRNA expression in the whole cohort of 461 breast cancer patients and among different molecular subtypes. Correlations were analyzed us-ing Spearman-Rho correlation coefficient. Results: In the whole cohort, LAG-3 expression had no significant impact on MFS (p = 0.712, Log Rank). In the subgroup analyses, there was a trend, that higher LAG-3 expression was associated with favorable outcome in the luminal B (p = 0.217), basal-like (p = 0.370) and HER2 (p = 0.089) subtypes, although significance was not reached. In contrast, in multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, tumor size, axillary nodal status, histological grade of differentiation and the proliferation marker Ki-67, LAG-3 showed a significant influence on MFS (HR 0.574; 95% CI 0.369–0.894; p = 0.014). High LAG-3 significantly correlated with CD8 ( = 0.571; p < 0.001). Conclusion: LAG-3 expression had an independent impact on MFS. In addition to PD-1 and PD-L1, further immune checkpoints such as LAG-3 could serve as therapeutic targets in breast cancer.

The hyper-arid environment is characterized by high inter-annual climatic fluctuations. The yearly average rainfall can change substantially for several years, forming wet or dry sub-periods. Observing rainfall trends over a sub-period can lead to a false perception of a change in the trend but may in fact represent a periodic cycle when examined on a larger time scale. We aimed to better characterize the rainfall regime prevailing in the hyper-arid Arava Valley (Israel/Jordan), and to examine the response of vegetation to annual rainfall. We hypothesized that annual and perennial vegetation would respond differently to wet and dry sub-periods, and that grazing activities will impact vegetation growth. We used a time series of monthly rainfall, from which we calculated Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), and calculated proxies of perennial and annual vegetation over the last four decades using Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We found no clear trend in rainfall amounts during this period, however we did identify wet and dry sub-periods which were statistically distinct in rain and in vegetation patterns from each other. The highest levels of correlation between rainfall and the NDVI derived proxies were found when examining average rainfall over a period of two- three years for the annual vegetation and over four years for perennial vegetation. Using the Mann-Kendall test, we identified a time lag of two to four years, with the proxies of annual vegetation responding faster than the proxies of perennial vegetation, to shifts between wet and dry sub-period. In addition, we found a consistent difference between natural vegetation cover in Jordan (grazed) and Israel (non-grazed), favoring the development of natural vegetation on the Israeli side. We conclude that integrating between long-term remote sensing satellite imagery and climatic records revealed the greater resilience of perennial vegetation in the hyper-arid region to climatic fluctuation, and enabled us to identify the vegetation’s sensitivity to anthropogenic impact.

During the 2008 financial crisis, central banks (such as the Fed) adopted quantitative easing (QE) policy to stimulate their economies and overcome severe economic and financial recessions. However, apart from stimulating the economy by issuing a substantial amount of currency to purchase long-term bonds and suppress interest rates, QE policy also contributed to a boom in the real estate and construction sectors. Therefore, this study employs Data Envelopment Analysis to measure the business performance (BP) of construction companies and explores the impact of QE policy on the BP of construction companies between 2004 and 2015 using ordinary least squares regression. Also, we examine the moderating role of debt ratio on the relationship. Focused on publicly listed construction companies in Taiwan, this research reveals three encouraging find-ings. Firstly, QE policy indeed enhanced the BP of Taiwanese construction companies. Secondly, the performance improvement of construction companies due to QE policy shows a time-diminishing trend, suggesting the importance of seizing the initial policy benefits of QE implementation. Lastly, construction companies with appropriate financial leverage may exhibit better BP. These findings can provide valuable insights for relevant government entities and de-cision-makers in the industry for policy and investment decisions.

The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of diffusion and thermal loading due to pulsed laser heating on a thermoelastic solid with voids in the context of the model of three-phase-lag. The non-dimensional governing equations are formulated and then the exact expressions for the temperature field, the displacement components, the stress components, the concentration field and the change in the volume fraction field are obtained using the normal mode technique. The material is an isotropic, homogeneous elastic half-space and heated by a non-Gaussian laser beam with pulse duration of ps. The magnesium crystal element is used as an application to compare the predictions induced by diffusion and laser pulse on poro-thermoelastic medium of the model of three-phase-lag with those for the theory of Green–Naghdi of type III. The results obtained for thermal changes are verified by comparison with two theories of thermoelasticity, namely the model of three-phase lag (3PHL) and the Green and Nagdi type III theory. Plot the expressions to examine the effect of the laser pulse at two different values of time and the effect void parameter. This study also yields some interesting special cases.

Predicting the tidal wave is essential not only to better understand hydrological cycle at the boundary between land and ocean but also to improve energy production in the coastal area. As affected by various factors such as astronomical, meteorological, and hydrological effects, predicting the tidal wave at the estuary remains uncertain. In this study, we present a novel method to improve short-term tidal wave predictions using a fixed-lag smoother based on sequential data assimilation (DA). The proposed method is implemented for the tidal wave predictions at the estuary of Nakdong River. As a result, the prediction accuracy was improved by 63.9% with DA and the calibration using the regression. Although the accuracy of DA diminished for increasing forecast lead times, the 1-hr lead forecast by DA had still 44.4% improvement over the open loop without DA. Plus, the optimal conditions for the fixed-lag smoother were analyzed in terms of the order of a smoothing function and the length of assimilation window and forecast lead time. It was suggested that the optimal DA configuration could be obtained with the 8th order polynomial as a smoothing function assimilated under 6-hr or longer past and future DA windows.

Optimal use of Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) assembled aerosol optical depth (AOD)-PM2.5 fused surfaces in epidemiologic studies requires homogeneous temporal and spatial fused surfaces. No analytical method is available to evaluate spatial heterogeneity. The temporal case-crossover design was modified to assess the spatial association between four experimental AOD-PM2.5 fused surfaces and four respiratory-cardiovascular hospital events in 12 km2 grids. The maximum number of adjacent lag grids with significant odds ratios (ORs) identified homogeneous spatial areas (HOSAs). The largest HOSA included 5 grids (lag grids 04; 720 km2) and the smallest HOSA contained 2 grids (lag grids 01; 288 km2). Emergency department asthma and inpatient asthma, myocardial infarction, and heart failure ORs were significantly higher in rural grids without air monitors than in urban grids with air monitors at lag grids 0, 1, and 01. Rural grids had higher AOD-PM2.5 concentration levels, population density, and poverty percent than urban grids. Warm season ORs were significantly higher than cold season ORs for all health outcomes at lag grids 0, 1, 01, and 04. The possibility of elevated fine and ultrafine PM and other demographic and environmental risk factors synergistically contributing to elevated respiratory-cardiovascular chronic diseases in persons residing in rural areas was discussed

In this paper we re-investigated the relationship between the symmetry of inertial systems and the Lorentz transformation. We found that when we just follow the following three principles: (1)we can define the time in the whole space with a prescribed clock synchronization, (2)the time-space is uniform and the space is isotropic and (3)all the inertial systems are equivalent, then we can totally construct a general coordinate transformation to meet the symmetry of inertial systems, and with a special assumption on the speed of light, we can construct a non-Lorentz transformation between inertial systems to make the particle’s energy have a limited value, which is similar to the rainbow model. Similar to the usual Lorentz violating models, the non-Lorentz transformation in this paper lead to a new modified disperse relation. We applied the obtained disperse relation to analyze the photon’s arrival time lag effect in astronomy and found that the "maximum energy" derived in our model is somewhat related to the "maximum energy" assumed in the rainbow model.

Abstract: rainfall is the main driver of soil erosion. With the daily rainfall, riverine flow discharge and sediment load in the upper Lianjiang River watershed from 1990 to 2020, extreme rainfall events were defined by the 95th percentile method and minimum event interval time (MIT), change trends and mutations of yearly rainfall, riverine flow discharge and sediment load were identified using the Mann-Kendall test, then the optimum lag response time and antecedent rainfall were investigated with the multiple linear regression. The results showed that (1) the sediment changed significantly and abruptly in 1995 due to the expansion of the garden land. (2) Compared with ordinary rainfall, extreme rainfall events explained more variations of riverine flow and sediment with a higher degree, and had a more significant effect on the lag time of runoff and sediment. (3) Garden land expansion in extreme rainfall scenarios resulted in longer lag times for runoff and sediment and decreased demand for antecedent rainfall with more pre-event time. Therefore, taking the rainfall event as a breakthrough, analyzing the antecedent rainfall and the lag response of riverine flow discharge and sediment load is conducive to revealing the response mechanism of riverine flow discharge and sediment load and improving the simulation accuracy of riverine flow and sediment under extreme rainfall condition, thus help for the soil erosion control under extreme rainfall.

Disasters related to climate change on our water resources are on the rise in terms of scale and severity. Therefore, predicting groundwater levels (GWL) is a crucial means to aid adaptive capacity towards disasters related to climate change in our water resources. In this study Gradient Boosting (GB) regression modelling approach for GWL prediction as a function of rainfall and antecedent GWL is used. Firstly, we sought to demonstrate the effects of rainfall changes on our groundwater resources through a Mann-Kendall trend analysis. Secondly, we evaluated the relationship between the input and response variables and determined the optimal lag times between the variables using autocorrelations and cross-correlations. Lastly a predictive model was developed for eight groundwater stations in the Upper Crocodile. 50 % of the groundwater stations revealed declining trends, while 25% had no trends and the other 25% showed an increasing trend. Generally low cross-correlation maximum (CCmax) were obtained, with the highest CCmax being 0.299 at an optimal lag of 2-month. While the highest autocorrelation was 0.969 at a 1-month lag. The best groundwater predictive model had R2 and MSE of 0.66 and 0.06, respectively. The stations that generally performed better had both high autocorrelation and cross-correlation coefficients. GB model performed satisfactorily in predicting GWL for most of the stations in the study area. Therefore, GB can be used for GWL prediction in the Upper Crocodile.

This paper contains a concise overview of the deployment of scattered solar power plants in Poland, mainly from the perspective of their communication networks, and how the recent development of the Polish 4G networks has a very positive impact for the performance of the whole monitoring system (production control and video-surveillance), with a special emphasis on video-analytics, due to its higher bandwidth demand. All the information will be shown from the point of view of the solar photovoltaics developer I+D Energías, and therefore it constitutes a real user’s experience.

Herein, we examined the effects of weather parameters and individual clinicodemographic risk factors on hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence, severity on admission, and disability at discharge in a harsh desert climate. In a retrospective design we studied patients admitted to a stroke unit in Arab Emirates in 2016-2019. With a distributed lag nonlinear model we explored immediate and delayed effects of weather on stroke incidence. Supervised machine learning was used to build models predictive of scores in NIHSS and mRS scales. We assessed model performance by calculating ROC AUC, F1 scores, specificity, and sensitivity. HS risk increased after a significant change in any weather parameter. The risk was reduced below baseline after 1-week adjustment to environmental changes. Climate input from the previous 3 days yielded reliable classification models. Humidex was a better predictor of severity than air temperature, whereas body mass index, age, and time of day at stroke onset were the strongest clinical predictors. Weather parameters before admission were stronger predictors of disease severity than individual clinical factors. We addressed limitations of previous studies by analyzing a full set of climate parameters: ambient temperature, relative humidity, humidex, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed. Predictive models may help to optimize patient management and develop preventative strategies.

Conventional economic theory outlines that developing countries experience economic growth through an undervalued exchange rate and that exchange rate overvaluations has negative long term effects on economic growth. This paper examined the impact of exchange rate movements as well as exchange rate misalignments on economic growth for the Trinidad and Tobago economy over the period 1960 to 2016. We find statistically significant evidence that both exchange rate appreciation and misalignments impact negatively on economic growth in the T&T economy. Drilling deeper we find interestingly that there exist no non-linear effects of exchange rate misalignments on growth. Specifically we find statistically significant evidence that both overvaluations and undervaluations hamper economic growth in the Trinidad and Tobago economy. We attribute this to T&T’s small and underdeveloped manufacturing sector that tends to be overlooked on account of its energy resources, in addition to the fact that its manufacturing sector is highly import oriented. A major policy recommendation would be for the critical reassessment of the rules governing the HSF, as government expenditure was allowed to follow energy revenues due to its current limitations.

Distributed deformation based on Fiber Bragg Grating sensors or other kinds of strain sensors can be used to evaluate safety in operating periods of bridges. However, most of the published researches about distributed deformation monitoring are focused on solid rectangular beam rather than box girder—a kind of typical hollow beam widely employed in actual bridges. Considering that the entire deformation of a single-cell box girder contains not only bending deflection but also two additional deformations respectively caused by shear lag and shearing action, this paper again revises the improved conjugated beam method (ICBM) based on the LFBG sensors to satisfy the requirements for monitoring two mentioned additional deformations. The best choice for the LFBG sensor placement in box gilder is also proposed in this paper due to strain fluctuation on flange caused by shear lag effect. Results from numerical simulations show that most of the theoretical monitoring errors of the revised ICBM are 0.3%~1.5%, and the maximum error is 2.4%. A loading experiment for a single-cell box gilder monitored by LFBG sensors show that most of the practical monitoring errors are 6%~8%, and the maximum error is 11%.