Especially for drought periods, the higher the accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasting, the more reliable the water supply from a dam. The article focuses on probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to reservoirs and determines estimates from the probabilistic seasonal inflow according to drought forecast results. The probabilistic seasonal inflow was forecasted by a copula-based Bayesian network employing a Gaussian copula function. Drought forecasting was performed by calculation of the standardized streamflow index value. The calendar year is divided into four seasons; the total inflow volume of water to a reservoir for a season is referred to as the seasonal inflow. Seasonal inflow forecasting curves conforming to drought stages produce estimates of probabilistic seasonal inflow according to the drought forecast results. The forecasted estimates of seasonal inflow were calculated by using the inflow records of Soyanggang and Andong dams in the Republic of Korea. Under the threshold probability of drought occurrence ranging from 50 to 55 %, the forecasted seasonal inflows reasonably matched critical drought records. Combining the drought forecasting with the seasonal inflow forecasting may produce reasonable estimates of drought inflow from the probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to a reservoir.

This work investigates the utility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Model (NWM) for water management operations by assessing the total inflow into a select number of reservoirs across the Central and Western U.S. Total inflow is generally an unmeasured quantity, though critically important for anticipating both floods and shortages in supply over a short-term (hourly) to sub-seasonal (monthly) time horizon. The NWM offers such information at over 5,000 reservoirs across the U.S., however, its skill at representing inflow processes is largely unknown. The goal of this work is to understand the drivers for both well performing and poor performing NWM inflows such that managers can get a sense of the capability of NWM to capture natural hydrologic processes and in some cases, the effects of upstream management. We analyzed the inflows for a subset of Bureau of Reclamation (BoR) reservoirs within the NWM over the long-term simulations (retrospectively, seven years) and for short, medium and long-range operational forecast cycles over a one-year period. We utilize ancillary reservoir characteristics (e.g. physical and operational) to explain variation in inflow performance across the selected reservoirs. In general, we find that NWM inflows in snow-driven basins outperform those in rain-driven, and that assimilated basin area, upstream management, and calibrated basin area all influence the NWM’s ability to reproduce daily reservoir inflows. The final outcome of this work proposes a framework for how the NWM reservoir inflows can be useful for reservoir management, linking reservoir purposes with the forecast cycles and retrospective simulations.

A thermal system in very deep Lake Tazawa (maximum depth, 423 m) was investigated by estimating the heat budget. In the heat budget estimate, the net heat input at lake surface and the heat input by river inflow and groundwater inflow were considered. Then, the heat loss by snowfall onto lake surface was taken into account. Meanwhile, lake water temperature was monitored at 0.2 m to the bottom by mooring temperature loggers for more than two years. The heat storage change of the lake from the loggers was calibrated by frequent vertical measurements of water temperature at every 0.1 m pitch by a profiler with high accuracy (± 0.01 °C). The heat storage change (W/m2) obtained by the temperature loggers reasonably accords to that from the heat budget estimate. In the heat budget, the net heat input at lake surface dominates the heat storage change, but the significant heat loss by river inflow sporadically occurred, which is caused by the relatively large discharge from a reservoir in the upper region. How deep the vertical water circulation in the lake occurs in winter was judged by the differences between water temperatures at 0.2 m depth and bottom and between vertical profiles of dissolved oxygen over winter. It is strongly suggested that the whole water circulation does not occur every winter, if any, very weak.

During the development of horizontal wells in bottom water reservoirs, the strong heterogeneity of reservoir permeability leads to premature bottom water breakthrough at locations with high permeability in the horizontal wellbore, and the water content rises rapidly, which seriously affects production. In order to cope with this problem, a new technology has emerged in recent years that utilizes gravel filling to block the flow in the annulus between the horizontal well and the borehole, and utilizes the Inflow Control Device (ICD) completion tool to carry out segmental water control in horizontal wells. Unlike conventional horizontal well ICD completions that use packers for segmentation, gravel pack combined with ICD completions breaks the original seg-mentation routine and increases the complexity of production dynamic simulation. In this paper, the flow in different spatial dimensions such as reservoir, gravel packed layer, ICD completion section and horizontal wellbore is modeled separately, and the annular pressure at different locations is used as the solution variable for the coupled solution, which realizes the prediction of oil production, water production and water content of gravel pack combined with ICD completions of horizontal wells. The model was used to calculate the effects of different crude oil viscosities, different reservoir permeabilities, different permeabilities of gravel packed layers, and different development stages on the water control effects of gravel pack combined ICD completions and conventional ICD completions at field conditions. This study provides a basis for using gravel pack combined ICD completions in horizontal wells in bottom water reservoirs.

For the purpose of clean energy hydropower development, the construction of reservoirs has been continuously promoted in the Jinsha River basin for many years, and how the reservoirs affect the water and sediment process is a very necessary topic to study. This study is based on the gauged water and sediment data (span from the 1960’s to 2020) at Shigu, Panzhihua, and Xiangjiaba stations downstream located in the trunk channel of the river, and uses Mann-Kendall trend test method and double cumulative curve method to comprehensively judge the variation trends of runoff and suspended sediment load and reveal their credible mutation years. The linear regression method is used to reveal the variation characteristics of the relationship between water and sediment before and after the abrupt change years. The results show that the variations in runoff at Shigu and Panzhihua stations have significant and relatively obvious increasing trends, respectively, and that at Panzhihua station has a mutation year of 1985. The runoff at Xiangjiaba Station slightly increased but not significantly. The variation of suspended sediment load showed a temporal and spatial differentiation. The variation of sediment discharge at Shigu Station showed an increasing trend with a mutation year of 1997. For Panzhihua Station, it showed an increasing trend before 1998, but has significantly decreased since 1998. The fluctuation of sediment transport at Xiangjiaba Station was significant before 1998, but the trend is unclear. In the period of 1998−2020, it showed a significant decreasing trend, especially since 2013, when the mean annual suspended sediment load only accounted for 0.61% of its multi-year average. The variations of mean annual sediment concentration and sediment inflow coefficient at the hydrological stations is consistent with the variation trend of sediment transport. Before 2013, the correlation between water and sediment was strong, but thereafter it was extremely weak. The two sudden years of 1998 and 2013 are consistent with the year when large reservoirs were built in the river basin. The construction of large reservoirs and their large amount of sediment retention are the key reasons for the sudden changes in the water-sediment relationship and the sharp decrease in sediment transport in the downstream reach of the reservoir dam. The climate and underlying surface changes in the study area are not significant, and their impact on the water and sediment processes in the watershed is limited.

The analysis of water inflow is a key issue in the construction of subsea tunnels. However, present research on the water inflow of subsea tunnels is predominantly focused on single-bore tunnels. Given the current practices in engineering, it is common to see a parallel configuration of three bores. In such cases, the proximity of tunnels to one another might result in alterations to the water inflow due to the interplay of seepage fields. This paper begins by conducting a numerical simulation to assess the water inflow characteristics of a three-bore parallel subsea tunnel. The study then investigates the impact of many factors, including the permeability coefficient of the surrounding rock, the depth of the seawater, the depth of the tunnel, the spacing between tunnels, and the relative size of the tunnels, on the water inflow phenomenon. Furthermore, based on the principles of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics, a comprehensive assessment framework is developed to evaluate the water inflow of three-bore parallel subsea tunnels. Ultimately, this grade of water inflow is used in practical engineering. The results show that there is mutual influence between the three parallel tunnels, and the predicted water inflow will be too large if the single tunnel model is adopted. The interaction between tunnels should be considered in the water inflow grade evaluation system of the three-hole parallel submarine tunnel. Engineering cases show that using a single-hole tunnel model without considering the interaction between tunnels will lead to higher water inflow grades. The research results of this paper can provide guidance for the waterproofing and drainage design of three parallel subsea tunnels and the stability analysis of surrounding rocks.

Background: The manifestations, severity, and mortality of COVID-19 are considered to be associated with the changes in various hematological parameters and in immunity. Associations of immunoglobulin G antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome-linked coronavirus (IgG-SARS)-positive status with cardiac function and hematological and biochemical parameters in apparently health subjects are poorly understood. Methods: The present cross-sectional study included 307 healthy volunteers (24-69 years of age; 44.8±8.6 years; 80.4% men) and was initiated in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 episodes were confirmed by detection of IgG-SARS against SARS-CoV-2 S1 RBD to reveal 70 IgG-SARS-positive and 237 negative participants. Numerous ultrasound characteristics were assessed by echocardiography, and 15 hematological and biochemical parameters were assayed in the blood. Descriptive and comparative analysis was based on the IgG-SARS status of the participants. Results: The left ventricular mass index, mitral ratio of peak early to late diastolic filling velocity or flow velocity across the mitral valve, and deceleration time of early mitral inflow were decreased (P<0.05) in IgG-SARS-positive participants versus those in IgG-SARS-negative participants according to multivariate logistic regression analysis. Erythrocyte sedimentation rate and platelet count were slightly increased, and blood hemoglobin was decreased in IgG-SARS-positive participants compared with those in IgG-SARS-negative participants. Conclusions: LV filling, inflammation, blood coagulation, and hemoglobin appear to be influenced by COVID-19 infection in healthy participants. These observations contribute to the development of a population recovery strategy after the episodes of COVID-19.