This paper attempts at applying adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for analysis of the resonant frequency of a microstrip rectangular patch antenna with two equal size slots which are placed on the patch vertically. The resonant frequency is calculated as the position of slots is shifted to the right and left sides on the patch. As a result , the antenna resonates at more than one frequency . Commonly, machine algorithms based on artificial neural networks are employed to recognize the whole resonant frequencies. However ,they fail to estimate the resonant frequencies correctly as in some cases variations are not very sensible and the resonant frequencies overlap each other . It can be concluded that artificial neural networks could be replaced in such designs by the adaptive network-based fuzzy Inference system due to its high approximation capability and much faster convergence rate.

RAxML-NG is a new phylogentic inference tool that replaces the widely-used RAxML and ExaMLtree inference codes. Compared to its predecessors, RAxML-NG offers improvements in accur-acy, flexibility, speed, scalability, and user-friendliness. In this chapter, we provide practicalrecommendations for the most common use cases of RAxML-NG: tree inference, branch supportestimation via non-parametric bootstrapping, and parameter optimization on a fixed tree topo-logy. We also describe best practices for achieving optimal performance with RAxML-NG, inparticular, with respect to parallel tree inferences on computer clusters and supercomputers. AsRAxML-NG is continuously updated, the most up-to-date version of the tutorial described inthis chapter is available online at: https://cme.h-its.org/exelixis/raxml-ng/tutorial .

GPT-4 was released in March 2023 to wide acclaim, marking a very substantial improvement across the board over GPT-3.5 (OpenAI's previously best model, which had powered the initial release of ChatGPT). Despite the genuinely impressive improvement, however, there are good reasons to be highly skeptical of GPT-4's ability to reason. This position paper discusses the nature of reasoning; criticizes the current formulation of reasoning problems in the NLP community and the way in which the reasoning performance of LLMs is currently evaluated; introduces a collection of 21 diverse reasoning problems; and performs a detailed qualitative analysis of GPT-4's performance on these problems. Based on the results of this analysis, the paper argues that, despite the occasional flashes of analytical brilliance, GPT-4 at present is utterly incapable of reasoning.

Predicting electricity prices is a very important issue in modern society, because the associated decision process under uncertainty requires accurate forecasts for the economic agents involved. In this paper, we apply the decision tree extension of Random Forests to the prediction of electricity prices in Spain, but with the novelty of modeling prices jointly with demand, with the purpose of achieving greater accuracy than with univariate response Random Forests, particularly in price prediction, as well as understanding the effect of the input variables (lagged values of price and demand, current production levels of available energy sources) on the joint of the two outputs. The results are very encouraging, providing significant increase in price prediction accuracy. Also, interesting methodological challenges appear as far as the appropriate choice of the relative weights of price and demand in the joint modeling is concerned and a new procedure to provide the importance variable ranking is proposed. The partykit (package of R software) library allowing for multivariate Random Forests has been used.

Solar energy is a renewable resource of energy that is broadly utilized and has the least emissions among the renewable energies. In this study, machine learning methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), least squares support vector machines (LSSVM), and neuro-fuzzy are used for advancing prediction models for thermal performance of a photovoltaic-thermal solar collector (PV/T). In the proposed models, the inlet temperature, flow rate, heat, solar radiation, and the sun heat have been considered as the inputs variables. Data set has been extracted through experimental measurements from a novel solar collector system. Different analyses are performed to examine the credibility of the introduced approaches and evaluate their performance. The proposed LSSVM model outperformed ANFIS and ANNs models. LSSVM model is reported suitable when the laboratory measurements are costly and time-consuming, or achieving such values requires sophisticated interpretations.

The relationship of the animal with its environment has been of longstanding interest in philosophy and science. Here I provide a brief introduction to concepts that place an emphasis on mutualism as the basis of organism - environment interaction, in contrast to the long standing view that the environment exerts an instrumental role in shaping the organism. Two influential theories have been von Uexküll’s theory of umwelt and Gibson’s theory of affordances. The former envisioned the animal as immersed in its surroundings (umwelt) to form a functional unit. In a similar manner, the latter theory describes a unity between 1) environmental information that provides the animal with opportunities for action (affordances) and 2) the ability of the animal to perceive and engage with those affordances. These views have influenced more recent ecological models of the organism as the functional unit of biology and have also influenced models of immune function. In ecological models, agency is seen as the ability of the organism to predict and control its engagement with the environment in order to maintain its integrity. The predominant contemporary model of neural function in which perception and action are understood to operate through Bayes-like active inference complements the concept of agency as proposed by the mutualism models. However, it is suggested that rather than a constant mutualism, encounters between organism and environment range over a dynamic spectrum from dualism to mutualism. It is also suggested that along this spectrum, agency emerges when the balance of instrumentality shifts from the environment to the organism, and that the balance of this relationship can further progress towards a felicitous mutualism. Meaning emerges between environmental information and an agent as opportunity for action. Implications for opportunities to foster agency in animals within our care is noted.

Historic expeditions are events that are flavored by exploratory, scientific, military or geographic characteristics. Such events are often documented in literature, journey notes or personal diaries. A typical historic expedition involves multiple site visits and their descriptions contain spatiotemporal and attributive contexts. Expeditions involve movements in space that can be represented by triplet features (location, time and description). However, such features are implicit and innate parts of textual documents. Extracting the geospatial information from these documents requires understanding the contextualized entities in the text. To this end, we developed a semi-automated framework that has multiple Information Retrieval and Natural Language Processing components to extract the spatiotemporal information from a two-volumes historic expedition gazetteer. Our framework has three basic components, namely, the Text Preprocessor, the Gazetteer Processing Machine and the JAPE (Java Annotation Pattern Engine) Transducer. We used the Brazilian Ornithological Gazetteer as an experimental dataset and extracted the spatial and temporal entities from entries that refer to three expeditioners’ site visits and mapped the trajectory of each expedition using the extracted information. Finally, one of the mapped trajectories was manually compared with a historical reference map of that expedition to assess the reliability of our framework. The reference map was manually prepared in previous research work by others.

What is the function of cognition? On one influential account, cognition evolved to co-ordinate behaviour with environmental change or complexity (Godfrey-Smith 1996). Liberal interpretations of this view ascribe cognition to an extraordinarily broad set of biological systems – even bacteria, which modulate their activity in response to salient external cues, would seem to qualify as cognitive agents. However, equating cognition with adaptive flexibility per se glosses over important distinctions in the way biological organisms deal with environmental complexity. Drawing on contemporary advances in theoretical biology and computational neuroscience, we cash these distinctions out in terms of different kinds of generative models, and the representational and uncertainty-resolving capacities they afford. This analysis leads us to propose a formal criterion for delineating cognition from other, more pervasive forms of adaptive plasticity. On this view, biological cognition is rooted in a particular kind of functional organisation; namely, that which enables the agent to detach from the present and engage in counterfactual (active) inference.

It is increasingly common for experiments in biology and medicine to involve large numbers of hypothesis tests. A natural graphical method for visualizing these tests is to construct a histogram from the p-values of these tests. In this article, we examine the shapes, both normal and abnormal, that these histograms can take on, as well as present simple inferential procedures that help to interpret the shapes in terms of diagnosing potential problems with the experiment. We examine potential causes of these problems in detail, and discuss potential remedies. Throughout, examples of abnormal-looking p-value histograms are provided and based on case studies involving real biological experiments.

Data generation using high throughput technologies has led to the accumulation of diverse types of molecular data.These data have different types (discrete,real,string etc.) and occur in various formats and sizes. Datasets including gene expression, miRNA expression, protein-DNA binding data (ChIP-Seq/ChIP-ChIP), mutation data(copy number variation, single nucleotide polymorphisms), GO annotations, protein-protein interaction and disease-gene association data are some of the commonly used genomic datasets to study biological processes. Each of them provides a unique, complementary and partly independent view of the genome and hence embed essential information about their regulatory mechanisms. In order to understand the functions of genes, proteins and analyze mechanisms arising out of their interactions, information provided by each of these datasets individually may not be sufficient. Therefore integrating these multi-omic data and inferring regulatory interactions from the integrated dataset provides a system level biological insights in predicting gene functions and their phenotypic outcomes. To study genome functionality through interaction networks, different methods have been proposed for collective mining of information from an integrated dataset. We survey here data integration approaches using state-of-the-art techniques such as network integration, Bayesian networks, regularized regression (LASSO) and multiple kernel learning methods.

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success in diverse computer science applications, however, its use in other traditional engineering fields has emerged only recently. In this project, we solved several mechanics problems governed by differential equations, using physics informed neural networks (PINN). The PINN embeds the differential equations into the loss of the neural network using automatic differentiation. We present our developments in the context of solving two main classes of problems: data-driven solutions and data-driven discoveries, and we compare the results with either analytical solutions or numerical solutions using the finite element method. The remarkable achievements of the PINN model shown in this report suggest the bright prospect of the physics-informed surrogate models that are fully differentiable with respect to all input coordinates and free parameters. More broadly, this study shows that PINN provides an attractive alternative to solve traditional engineering problems.

An approach to the assessment of probabilistic inference is described which quantifies the performance on the probability scale. From both information and Bayesian theory, the central tendency of an inference is proven to be the geometric mean of the probabilities reported for the actual outcome and is referred to as the “Accuracy.” Upper and lower error bars on the accuracy are provided by the arithmetic mean and the -2/3 mean. The arithmetic is called the “Decisiveness” due to its similarity with the cost of a decision and the -2/3 mean is called the “Robustness”, due to its sensitivity to outlier errors. Visualization of inference performance is facilitated by plotting the reported model probabilities versus the histogram calculated source probabilities. The visualization of the calibration between model and source is summarized on both axes by the arithmetic, geometric, and -2/3 means. From information theory, the performance of the inference is related to the cross-entropy between the model and source distribution. Just as cross-entropy is the sum of the entropy and the divergence; the accuracy of a model can be decomposed into a component due to the source uncertainty and the divergence between the source and model. Translated to the probability domain these quantities are plotted as the average model probability versus the average source probability. The divergence probability is the average model probability divided by the average source probability. When an inference is over/under-confident, the arithmetic mean of the model increases/decreases, while the -2/3 mean decreases/increases, respectively.

Grading of rice grains has gain attentions due its requirement of quality assessment during import or export. Rice grain quality depends on milling operation, where rice hull is removed with a huller system followed by whitening operation. In such process, adjustment of rollers, control, and operation is important in terms of quality of milled rice. Especially, the basmati rice needed more quality assurance as it is not parboiled rice and exported globally with a high product value. In this present work, the basic problem of quality assessment in rice industry is addressed with digital image processing based technique. Machine vision and digital image processing provide an alternative with the automated, nondestructive, cost-effective, and fast approach as compared with traditional method which is done manually by human inspectors. A model of quality grade testing and identification is built based on morphological features using digital image processing and knowledge based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The qualities of rice kernels are determined with the help of shape descriptors and geometric features using the sample images of milled rice. The adopted technique has been tested on a sufficient number of training images of basmati rice grain. The proposed method gives a promising result in an evaluation of rice quality with 100% classification accuracy for broken and whole grain. The milling efficiency is also assessed using the ratio between head rice and broken rice percentage and it is 77.27% for the test sample. The overall results of the adopted methodology are promising in terms of classification accuracy and efficiency.

The origins of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) date back to the emergence of ‘graph theory’ in the early 1700s (Biggs et al. 1986). DAGs are conceptual or literal, diagrammatic representations of causal paths between variables which are constructed – as their name suggests – on the basis of two over-riding principles: first, that all causal paths are ‘directed’ (i.e. for each pair of variables, only one can represent the cause, while the other must be its consequence); and second, that no direct cyclical paths, or indirect cyclical pathways (comprising sequences of consecutive paths) are allowed, such that no consequence can be considered its own direct or indirect cause (hence ‘acyclic’; Law et al., 2012). As such DAGs reflect the knowledge, presumptions, assumptions and/or speculation of the analyst(s) concerned regarding the causal relationships between each of the variables included therein. Current convention dictates that variables are represented as nodes/vertices, and that any causal paths between variables are represented as directed arcs/edges/lines, often in the form of arrows (see Figure 1). Although each arc indicates the presence and direction of a known/presumed/assumed/speculative causal relationship between the two variables concerned, drawing an arc does not require the sign, magnitude, precision or shape of the relationship to be known or declared (Tennant et al., 2021). In this respect, DAGs provide a simple, uncomplicated, accessible and entirely nonparametric approach for postulating causal relationships amongst any variables of interest even when these are uncertain, unknown or entirely speculative (Ellison, 2020). Nonetheless, as a result of the parametric constraints imposed by the presence/absence of possible arcs within any given DAG, these also reflect and support a number of more sophisticated statistical applications which make it possible to use DAGs to inform the design of multivariable statistical models that reflect the causal structure(s) involved – albeit without the need to know or understand the mathematical technicalities on which these are based (Lewis and Kuerbis, 2016). These features make DAGs attractive cognitive, educational and analytical tools for strengthening the epistemological, theoretical and empirical basis of causal inference, and there has been a recent proliferation in the use of DAGs across a range of applied scientific disciplines (e.g. Knight and Winship, 2013), and an associated upsurge in analytical methods training (e.g. Elwert, 2011; Gilthorpe, 2017; Hernán 2018; Roy, 2021; Hünermund, 2021). This Chapter reflects on a decade of delivering medical statistics training to undergraduate medical students at the University of Leeds between 2012-2021 in which the third year research, evaluation and special studies module (‘RESS3’) has used DAGs to support the development of applied statistical skills relevant to the extended student-selected research and evaluation projects (ESREP) students undertake in their fourth and final years (Ellison, 2021; Ellison et al., 2014a,b). Based on successive iterations of the structure and content of the RESS3 module, together with notes made during formal and informal planning and review meetings with module leads, lecturers, tutors and students, we draw on the claims and criticisms made of DAGs in the epidemiological literature to identify a number of explicit strengths (and associated, often implicit. weaknesses) that are central to their use in prediction and causal inference modelling. While using DAGs requires (and benefits from) a clear understanding of their non-parametric nature and parametric implications, the weaknesses of DAGs seem likely to reflect both: the challenges inherent in the modelling of data generating processes when these are imperfectly understood; and troublesome cognitive and heuristic tendencies common to all analytical tools – in which the tool facilitates the task in hand by reducing the necessity (and benefits of) exploring uncertainties and identifying assumptions. These, more epistemological considerations appear particularly challenging for medical undergraduates to grasp (Ellison, 2021), but also appear poorly understood by many established analysts and clinical epidemiologists (Ellison, 2020).

This paper presents a method to detect and classify the high impedance fault that occur in the medium voltage distribution network using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The network is designed using Matlab software and various faults such as high impedance, symmetrical and unsymmetrical fault have been applied to study the effectiveness of the proposed ANFIS classifier method. This is achieved by training the ANFIS classifier using the features (standard deviation values) extracted from the three phase fault current signal by DWT technique for various cases of fault with different values of fault resistance in the system. The success and discrimination rate obtained for identifying and classifying the high impedance fault from the proffered method is 100% whereas the values are 66.7% and 85% respectively for conventional fuzzy based approach. The results indicate that the proposed method is more efficient to identify and discriminate the high impedance fault accurately from other power system faults in the system.

Geometric Akaike Information Criteria (G-AICs) for generalized noise-level dependent crystallographic symmetry classifications of two-dimensional (2D) images that are more or less periodic in either two or one dimensions as well as Akaike weights for multi-model inferences and predictions are reviewed. Such novel classifications do not refer to a single crystallographic symmetry class exclusively in a qualitative and definitive way. Instead, they are quantitative, spread over a range of crystallographic symmetry classes, and provide opportunities for inferences from all classes (within the range) simultaneously. The novel classifications are based on information theory and depend only on information that has been extracted from the images themselves by means of maximal likelihood approaches so that these classifications are objective. This is in stark contrast to the common practice whereby arbitrarily set thresholds or null hypothesis tests are employed to force crystallographic symmetry classifications into apparently definitive/exclusive states, while the geometric feature extraction results on which they depend are never definitive in the presence of generalized noise, i.e. in all real world applications. Thus, there is unnecessary subjectivity in the currently practiced ways of making crystallographic symmetry classifications, which can be overcome by the approach outlined in this review.

Education outside the classroom (EOtC) can be beneficial for students. The relationship between biological stress markers and sedentary behavior (SB) plus physical activity (PA) is insufficiently evaluated in school settings. This exploratory study aims to evaluate the association between students’ cortisol, plus circulating cell-free deoxyribonucleic acid (cfDNA) levels, and their SB, light PA (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) during outdoor and indoor classes in different seasons. We assessed data from an education outside the classroom (EOtC) program (n = 48; intervention group [IG], n = 37; control group [CG], n = 11). We sampled data on 3 school-days in three seasons (fall, spring, and summer) in normal teaching indoors (CG) and outdoor lessons (IG) in the forest. SB and PA were evaluated by accelerometry, and cortisol and cfDNA levels by saliva samples. The compositional data analysis approach analyzed SB and PA. Fitted Bayesian hierarchical linear models evaluated the association between cortisol and cfDNA, and SB/LPA/MVPA. A steady decline of cortisol in the outdoor setting is associated with relatively high levels of LPA. SB and MVPA tended to exhibit a similar effect in the indoor setting. CfDNA is positively associated with a relatively high amount of SB in the IG, the same association is likely for LPA and MVPA in both groups. LPA seems to support a healthy cortisol decrease in children during outdoor lessons. The relevance of SB/PA as a composition in relation to students stress response in school should be emphasized. This study facilitates the formulation of straightforward and directed hypotheses for further research.

Robotic decision-support systems must facilitate a robots interactions with their environment, this demands adaptability. Adaptability relates to awareness of the environment and `self-awareness', human behaviour exemplifies the concept of awareness to arrive at an optimal choice of action or decision based on reasoning and inference with learned preferences. A similar conceptual approach is required to implement awareness in autonomous robotic systems which must adapt to the current dynamic environment (the context of use). By incorporating `self-awareness' with knowledge of a Robot's preferences (in decision making) the decision maker interface should adapt to the current context of use. This paper proposes a novel approach to enable an autonomous robotics which implements path planning combining adaptation with knowledge reasoning techniques and hedge algebra to enable an autonomous robot to realise optimal coverage path planning under dynamic uncertainty. The results for a cleaning robot show that using our proposed approach demonstrated the capability to avoid both static and dynamic obstacles while achieving optimal path planning with increased efficiency. The proposed approach achieves the multiple decision-making objectives (path planning) with a high-coverage and low repetition rates. Compared to other current approaches, the proposed approach has demonstrated improved performance over the conventional robot control algorithms.

In this paper, we look at how Artificial Swarm Intelligence can evolve using evolutionary algorithms that try to minimize the sensory surprise of the system. We will show how to apply the free-energy principle, borrowed from statistical physics, to quantitatively describe the optimization method (sensory surprise minimization), which can be used to support lifelong learning. We provide our ideas about how to combine this optimization method with evolutionary algorithms in order to boost the development of specialized Artificial Neural Networks, which define the proprioceptive configuration of particular robotic units that are part of a swarm. We consider how optimization of the free-energy can promote the homeostasis of the swarm system, i.e. ensures that the system remains within its sensory boundaries throughout its active lifetime. We will show how complex distributed cognitive systems can be build in the form of hierarchical modular system, which consists of specialized micro-intelligent agents connected through information channels. We will also consider the co-evolution of various robotic swarm units, which can result in development of proprioception and a comprehensive awareness of the properties of the environment. And finally, we will give a brief outline of how this system can be implemented in practice and of our progress in this area.

The Autopoiesis and Cognition Theory (ACT), by Maturana and Varela, based on the notions of Biological Closure and Structural Coupling, is a well-known theory on how to understand biological organization [1, 2, 3]. Although, for example, the Free Energy Principle framework evokes some entailments of autopoiesis in a more formal setting [4, 5]; and ACT has been used in many fields, its impact has been restricted because it lacks quantitative analysis. Here we present a theoretical framework grounded in accepted and well-developed ideas from Mathematics and Physics which advance the understanding of the Principles of Biological Organization under the guidance of Biological Closure and Structural Coupling. The disciplines of Differential Geometry/Topology, Mechanics and Complex Dynamical Systems provide a powerful, elegant, and well-established body of knowledge to support our Biological Organization Principles (BOP) framework. In particular, Stochastic Mechanics and KAM theory (from Kolmogorov, Arnold and Moser theorem) allow us to develop, using the notions of Biological Closure and Structural Coupling, a central core of BOP termed Dynamical Closure Mechanism. Under the proposed framework, a wide variety of bio- logical phenomena can be understood, shedding new light on biological explanations. However, an understanding of biological organization may require the re-evaluation of dogmas on how we think on biology as it seems inescapable that what is needed is an integration of analysis and notions derived from mathematics, physics, and biology to generate a new landscape of ideas.

We find that the standard relative entropy and the Umegaki entropy are designed for the purpose of inferentially updating probability and density matrices respectively. From the same set of inferentially guided design criteria, both of the previously stated entropies are derived in parallel. This formulates a quantum maximum entropy method for the purpose of inferring density matrices in the absence of complete information.

The mutual information between the state of a neural network and the state of the external world represents the amount of information stored in the neural network that is associated with the external world. In contrast, the surprise of the sensory input indicates the unpredictability of the current input. In other words, this is a measure of inference ability, and an upper bound of the surprise is known as the variational free energy. According to the free-energy principle (FEP), a neural network continuously minimizes the free energy to perceive the external world. For the survival of animals, inference ability is considered to be more important than simply memorized information. In this study, the free energy is shown to represent the gap between the amount of information stored in the neural network and that available for inference. This concept involves both the FEP and the infomax principle, and will be a useful measure for quantifying the amount of information available for inference.

In this paper, we unite concepts from Husserlian phenomenology, the active inference framework in theoretical biology, and category theory in mathematics to develop a comprehensive framework for understanding social action premised on shared goals. We begin with an overview of Husserlian phenomenology, focusing on aspects of inner time consciousness, namely, retention, primal impression, and protention. We then review active inference as a formal approach to modeling agent behavior, based on variational (approximate Bayesian) inference. Expanding upon Husserl’s model of time consciousness, we consider collective goal-directed behavior, emphasizing shared protentions among agents and their connection to the shared generative models of active inference. This integrated framework aims to formalize shared goals in terms of shared protentions, and to thereby shed light on the emergence of group intentionality. Building on this foundation, we incorporate mathematical tools from category theory; particularly, sheaf and topos theory, to furnish a mathematical image of individual and group interactions within a stochastic environment. Specifically, we employ morphisms between polynomial representations of individual agent models, allowing predictions not only of their own behaviors but also those of other agents and environmental responses. Sheaf and topos theory facilitate the construction of coherent agent worldviews and provides a way of representing consensus or shared understanding. We explore the emergence of shared protentions, bridging the phenomenology of temporal structure, multi-agent active inference systems, and category theory. Shared protentions are highlighted as pivotal for coordination and achieving common objectives. We conclude by acknowledging the intricacies stemming from stochastic systems and uncertainties in realizing shared goals.

Many scientific and technological problems are studied with the help of computer codes that simulate the phenomena of interest rather than via traditional laboratory experiments. Such models play an important role in neuroscience where they are used to mimic brain function from the sub-cellular to the macroscopic level. Exploration with computer models carries with it a number of statistical challenges: where to sample the input space for the simulator, how to make sense of the data that is generated, how to estimate unknown parameters in the model, how to validate a model. The simulator setting also has some unique problems and possibilities. This review paper describes statistical research on these issues and how that work might be applied to neural simulations.

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

This paper investigates an inverse problem of option pricing in the extended Black--Scholes model. We identify the model coefficients from the measured data and attempt to find arbitrage opportunities in financial markets using a Bayesian inference approach. The posterior probability density function of the parameters is computed from the measured data. The statistics of the unknown parameters are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which explores the posterior state space. The efficient sampling strategy of MCMC enables us to solve inverse problems by the Bayesian inference technique. Our numerical results indicate that the Bayesian inference approach can simultaneously estimate the unknown drift and volatility coefficients from the measured data.

The models used to estimate disease transmission, susceptibility and severity determine what epidemiology can (and cannot tell) us about COVID-19. These include: ‘model organisms’ chosen for their phylogenetic/aetiological similarities; multivariable statistical models to estimate the strength/direction of (potentially causal) relationships between variables (through ‘causal inference’), and the (past/future) value of unmeasured variables (through ‘classification/prediction’); and a range of modelling techniques to predict beyond the available data (through ‘extrapolation’), compare different hypothetical scenarios (through ‘simulation’), and estimate key features of dynamic processes (through ‘projection’). Each of these models: address different questions using different techniques; involve assumptions that require careful assessment; and are vulnerable to generic and specific biases that can undermine the validity and interpretation of their findings. It is therefore necessary that the models used: can actually address the questions posed; and have been competently applied. In this regard, it is important to stress that extrapolation, simulation and projection cannot offer accurate predictions of future events when the underlying mechanisms (and the contexts involved) are poorly understood and subject to change. Given the importance of understanding such mechanisms/contexts, and the limited opportunity for experimentation during outbreaks of novel diseases, the use of multivariable statistical models to estimate the strength/direction of potentially causal relationships between two variables (and the biases incurred through their misapplication/misinterpretation) warrant particular attention. Such models must be carefully designed to address: ‘selection-collider bias’, ‘unadjusted confounding bias’ and ‘inferential mediator adjustment bias’ – all of which can introduce effects capable of enhancing, masking or reversing the estimated (true) causal relationship between the two variables examined. Selection-collider bias occurs when these two variables independently cause a third (the ‘collider’), and when this collider determines/reflects the basis for selection in the analysis. It is likely to affect all incompletely representative samples, although its effects will be most pronounced wherever selection is constrained (e.g. analyses focusing on infected/hospitalised individuals). Unadjusted confounding bias disrupts the estimated (true) causal relationship between two variables when: these share one (or more) common cause(s); and when the effects of these causes have not been adjusted for in the analyses (e.g. whenever confounders are unknown/unmeasured). Inferentially similar biases can occur when: one (or more) variable(s) (or ‘mediators’) fall on the causal path between the two variables examined (i.e. when such mediators are caused by one of the variables and are causes of the other); and when these mediators are adjusted for in the analysis. Such adjustment is commonplace when: mediators are mistaken for confounders; prediction models are mistakenly repurposed for causal inference; or mediator adjustment is used to estimate direct and indirect causal relationships (in a mistaken attempt at ‘mediation analysis’). These three biases are central to ongoing and unresolved epistemological tensions within epidemiology. All have substantive implications for our understanding of COVID-19, and the future application of artificial intelligence to ‘data-driven’ modelling of similar phenomena. Nonetheless, competently applied and carefully interpreted, multivariable statistical models may yet provide sufficient insight into mechanisms and contexts to permit more accurate projections of future disease outbreaks.

Solar energy is a renewable resources of energy which is broadly utilized and have the least pollution impact between the available alternatives of fossil fuels. In this investigation, machine leaening approaches of neural networks (NN), neuro-fuzzy and least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) are used to build the models for prediction of the thermal performance of a photovoltaic-thermal solar collector (PV/T) by estimating its efficiency as an output of the model while inlet temperature, flow rate, heat, solar radiation, and heat of sun are input of the designed model. Experimental measurements was prepared by designing a solar collector system and 100 data extracted. Different analyses are also performed to examine the credibility of the introduced approaches revealing great performance. The suggested LSSVM model represented the best performance regarding the mean squared error (MSE) of 0.003 and correlation coefficient (R²) value of 0.99, respectively.

A general framework for inference in dynamical systems is described, based on the language of Bayesian probability theory and making use of the maximum entropy principle. Taking as fundamental the concept of a path, the continuity equation and Cauchy's equation for fluid dynamics arise naturally, while the specific information about the system can be included using the Maximum Caliber (or maximum path entropy) principle.

Aim: The paper aims at defining the role of abductive reasoning in the reader’s interpretation of English fiction narrative text. Three research questions are defined as follows: (1) what is the nature of sign interpretation in its application to textual analysis? (2) what linguistic factors determine the use of abduction in the interpretation of signs? (3) how to apply abductive reasoning in the process of reading and interpretation in EFL teaching practice? Abduction is viewed here as a type of reasoning in the three-componential semiotic model of argument and as a deductive hypothesis, responsible for implicit meaning processing (Charles Peirce). Materials and Methods: The paper states the four-stage process of abduction to be a basic inquiry method of the reader on his way to fiction world interpretation. By providing a step-by-step analysis of patterns of abductive reasoning in a short story “Happy Endings” by Margaret Atwood, the paper conducts a textual analysis of narratives in terms of subjectivity theory of communication, reflecting the mechanisms of reader’s manipulation with information as a dynamic semiotic process of interpretation, limited by habit (final interpretant). Results: of the research of the mental operations employed by the reader while processing textual information proved a strong interrelation of reading with writing, and mental sub-processes and operations. As the empirical research shows, the process of conceptualization demands a higher level of cognitive maturity on the part of the reader/writer, as it presupposes “knowledge transforming” operations as opposed to “knowledge telling” strategy (Paltridge et. al. 2009: 20). To represent this process schematically, scholars assign the reader/interpretant the central role in the process of triadic sign interpretation, as he makes the further interpretation possible by a reference to the environment (Scheibmayer 2004: 305). The interpretant (I) and Representamen (R1) refer to the same object (O); as Representamen (R2) stands in the same relation to object, represented by Representamen (R1) and to the system (O2), where it acquires the functions of the observer (Sonnenhauser, 2008: 331). Conclusions: The conclusions coming from this research lead to the recognition of the second-level (or third level) observer as a source of subjectivity. And subjectivity, in its turn, arises from the difference in interpretation of signs recognized and established by the observer (Maturana & Varela, 1980). Thus, the process of differentiation by the observer is expected to fix the possible existence of other meanings, produced by the relations of the interpretant to the environment. This is the notion of thirdness. And, therefore, “sign situation”, plays the role of marking the pairs of differentiation in semiotic interpretation of signs. And it is this differential potential of indexical components of signs, and not their relatedness of meaning, which makes communication dynamic.

The hybridization of machine learning methods with soft computing techniques is an essential approach to improve the performance of the prediction models. Hybrid machine learning models, particularly, have gained popularity in the advancement of the high-performance control systems. Higher accuracy and better performance for prediction models of exergy destruction and energy consumption used in the control circuit of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems can be highly economical in the industrial scale to save energy. This research proposes two hybrid models of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system-particle swarm optimization (ANFIS-PSO), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system-genetic algorithm (ANFIS-GA) for HVAC. The results are further compared with the single ANFIS model. The ANFIS-PSO model with the RMSE of 0.0065, MAE of 0.0028, and R² equal to 0.9999, with a minimum deviation of 0.0691 (KJ/s), outperforms the ANFIS-GA and single ANFIS models.

With the rapidly increasing availability of large genetic data sets in recent years, Mendelian Randomization (MR) has quickly gained popularity as a novel secondary analysis method. Leveraging genetic variants as instrumental variables, MR can be used to estimate the causal effects of one phenotype on another even when experimental research is not feasible, and therefore has the potential to be highly informative. It is dependent on strong assumptions however, often producing strongly biased results if these are not met. It is therefore imperative that these assumptions are well-understood by researchers aiming to use MR, in order to evaluate their validity in the context of their analyses and data. The aim of this perspective is therefore to further elucidate these assumptions and the role they play in MR, as well as how different kinds of data can be used to further support them.

One of the most crucial and economically beneficial tasks for energy customer is peak load curtailment. On account of the fast response of renewable energy resources (RERs) such as photovoltaic (PV) units and battery energy storage system (BESS), this task is closer to be efficiently implemented. Depends on the customer peak load demand and energy characteristics, the feasibility of this strategy may warry. When adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is exploited for forecasting, it can provide many benefits to address the above-mentioned issues and facilitate its easy implementation, with short calculating time and re-trainability. This paper introduces a data driven forecasting method based on fuzzy logic for optimized peak load reduction. First, the amount of energy generated by PV is forecasted using ANFIS which conducts output trend, and then, the BESS capacity is calculated according to the forecasted results. The trend of the load power is then decomposed in Cartesian plane into two parts, left and right from load peak, searching for BESS capacity equal. Network switching sequence over consumption is provided by a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) with respect to BESS capacity and PV energy output. Finally, to prove the effectiveness of the proposed ANFIS-based peak shaving method, offline digital time-domain simulations have been performed on a real-life practical test micro grid system in MATLAB/Simulink environment and the results have been experimentally verified by testing on a practical micro grid system with real-life data obtained from smart meter and also, compared with several previously-reported methods.

Culture exploits the acquisition of meaningful content by crafting regimes of shared attention, determining what is relevant, valuable, and salient. Culture changes the field of relevant social affordances worthy of being acted upon in a context-sensitive manner. When relevant affordances are highly weighted, their attentional capture and their salience increase the probability of them being enacted due to the associated expectation for minimizing prediction error. This process is known as active inference. In the digital era, individuals need to infer the action-related attributes of digital cues, here characterized as digital affordances. The digital affordances of digital social platforms are of particular interest here. Digital social affordances are defined as online possibilities of social interactions. By their own nature, these are salient because they are related to social interactions and relevant social cues. However, the problem of digital social platforms is that they are not equivalent to situated social interactions because their structure is built, mediated, and defined by third-parties with diverse interests. The third-parties behind the digital social platforms are using the same mechanism exploited by culture to manipulate the shared patterns of attention. Moreover, digital social platforms are deliberately designed to be hyper-stimulating, making digital social affordances highly rewarding and increasingly salient. This appropriation, for economic purposes, is an issue of great importance, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic brought deep global changes, pushing societies to an online digital way of life. Here, we examined different types of digital social affordances under an active inference view, placing them into two categories, those for self-identity formation, and those for belief-updating. This paper aims to analyze digital social affordances in light of the prediction error dynamics they might elicit to their users. Although each of the analyzed digital social affordances allows different epistemic and instrumental digital actions, they all share the characteristic of having an "easy" and a fast expected rate of error reduction. Here, we aim to provide a new hypothesis about how the design behind digital social affordances is built on our natural attractiveness to minimize prediction error and the resulting positive embodied feelings when doing so. Finally, it is suggested that because digital social affordances are becoming highly weighted in the field of affordances, this might be putting at risk our context-sensitive grip on a rich, dynamic and varied field of relevant affordances.

Background: All Payer Claims Databases (APCD) are a rich source of health information, however, race and ethnicity (R&E) data are largely missing. Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a common R&E imputation method, yet, validation of BISG in APCDs is lacking. We used the BISG to impute missing R&E in the Oregon APCD. Methods: BISG imputed R&E for Asian Pacific Islanders (API), Blacks, Hispanics and Whites were contrasted to the gold standard (vital statistics) and sensitivity and specificity improvements were assessed. Logistic regression examined whether missing R&E was random across patient characteristics. Results: Among 85,857 individuals in the study, 32.1% (n=27,594) had missing R&E. Missing R&E was not randomly distributed. There were higher odds of missingness among males, Whites, those age 65 and older, and commercially insured individuals. Differences in the percent missing were also found by co-morbid conditions and mortality causes. Imputing the missing R&E with BISG method improved the sensitivity to identify White, Black, API, and Hispanics. Conclusions: APCDs can benefit from enhancing missing R&E with BISG imputation to perform more robust population-health level analyses and identify inequities according to R&E without losing power or dropping non-random records with missing R&E data.

In the present work, a novel and the robust computational investigation is carried out to estimate solubility of different acids in supercritical carbon dioxide. Four different algorithms such as radial basis function artificial neural network, Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN), Least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are developed to predict the solubility of different acids in carbon dioxide based on the temperature, pressure, hydrogen number, carbon number, molecular weight, and acid dissociation constant of acid. In the purpose of best evaluation of proposed models, different graphical and statistical analyses and also a novel sensitivity analysis are carried out. The present study proposed the great manners for best acid solubility estimation in supercritical carbon dioxide, which can be helpful for engineers and chemists to predict operational conditions in industries.

Here we present a fast and highly scalable community structure preserving network module detection that recursively integrates graph sparsification and clustering. Our algorithm, called SparseClust, participated in the most recent DREAM community challenge on disease module identification, an open competition to comprehensively assess module identification methods across a wide range of biological networks.

The creation of computer models is often driven by the need to make predictions in regions where there is no data (i.e. extrapolations). This makes validation challenging as it is difficult to ensure that a model will be suitable when it is applied in a region where there are no observations of the system of interest. The current paper proposes a method that can reveal flaws in a model which may be difficult to identify using traditional approaches for model calibration and validation. The method specifically targets the situation where one is attempting to model a dynamical system that is believed to possess time-invariant calibration parameters. The proposed approach allows these parameters to vary with time, even though it is believed that they are time-invariant. The of such an analysis is to identify key discrepancies - indications that a model has inherent flaws and, as a result, should not be used to influence decisions in regions where there is no data. The proposed method isn't necessarily a predictor of extrapolation performance, rather, it is a stringent test that, the authors believe, should be applied before extrapolation is attempted. The approach could therefore form a useful part of wider validation frameworks in the future.

The combination of artificial intelligence algorithms and numerical methods has recently become popular in the prediction of macroscopic and microscopic hydrodynamics parameters of bubble column reactors. The multi inputs and outputs machine learning can cover small phase interactions or large fluid behavior in industrial domains. This numerical combination can develop the smart multiphase bubble column reactor with the ability of low-cost computational time. It can also decrease case studies for the optimization process when big data is appropriately used during learning. There are still many model parameters that need to be optimized for a very accurate artificial algorithm, including data processing and initialization, the combination of inputs and outputs, number of inputs and model tuning parameters. For this study, we aim to train four inputs big data during learning process by an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system or adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method, and we consider the superficial gas velocity as one of the input variables, while for the first time, one of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) outputs named gas velocity is used as an output of the artificial algorithm. The results show that the increasing number of input variables improves the intelligence of the ANFIS method up to , and the number of rules during learning process has a significant effect on the accuracy of this type of modeling. The results also show that propper selection of model parameters results in more accuracy in prediction of the flow characteristics in the column structure.

With the rapid growth of large language models (LLMs), there is increasing demand for memory and computation for LLMs. Recent efforts on post-training pruning of LLMs aim to reduce the model size and computation, yet the performance is still sub-optimal. In this paper, we present a plug-and-play solution for post-training pruning of LLMs. The proposed solution has two innovative components: 1) **Relative Importance and Activations** (RIA), a new pruning metric that jointly considers the weight and activations efficiently on LLMs; and 2) **Channel Permutation**, a new approach to maximally preserve important weights under N:M sparsity. The proposed two components can be readily combined to further enhance the N:M structuredly pruned LLMs. Our empirical experiments show that RIA alone can already surpass all existing post-training pruning methods on prevalent LLMs, e.g., LLaMA ranging from 7B to 65B. Furthermore, N:M structured pruning with channel permutation can even outperform the original LLaMA2 70B on zero-shot tasks, together with practical speed-up on specific hardware.

As the era of omics continues to expand, omics-based experiments have become popular in industrial biotechnology. They promise deeper biological understanding, which may be leveraged to develop novel solutions to bioprocess optimization and cell line engineering strategies. Despite this expansion, naivety about what omic data offers and how to best handle such data can challenge the extraction of actionable value. However, the value of omic experiments in biotechnology research and development can be maximized with deliberate application of omic approaches and forethought about analysis techniques. Here we describe important considerations when designing and implementing omic-based experiments, and discuss how systems biology analysis strategies can enhance efforts to obtain actionable insights in biomanufacturing.

A vivid debate is ongoing in the scientific community about statistical malpractice and the related publication bias. No general consensus exists on the consequences and this is reflected in heterogeneous rules defined by scientific journals on the use and reporting of statistical inference. This paper aims at discussing how the debate is perceived by the agricultural economics community and implications for our roles as researchers, contributors to the scientific publication process, and teachers. We start by summarizing the current state of the p-value debate and the replication crisis, and commonly applied statistical practices in our community. This is followed by motivation, design, results and discussion of a survey on statistical knowledge and practice among the researchers in the agricultural economics community in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. We conclude that beyond short-term measures like changing rules of reporting in publications, a cultural change regarding empirical scientific practices is needed that stretches across all our roles in the scientific process. Acceptance of scientific work should largely be based on the theoretical and methodological rigor and where the perceived relevance arises from the questions asked, the methodology employed, and the data used but not from the results generated. Revised and clear journal guidelines, the creation of resources for teaching and research, and public recognition of good practice are suggested measures to move forward.

A paradigm shift away from null hypothesis significance testing seems in progress. Based on simulations, we illustrate some of the underlying motivations. First, P-values vary strongly from study to study, hence dichotomous inference using significance thresholds is usually unjustified. Second, statistically significant results have overestimated effect sizes, a bias declining with increasing statistical power. Third, statistically non-significant results have underestimated effect sizes, and this bias gets stronger with higher statistical power. Fourth, the tested statistical hypotheses usually lack biological justification and are often uninformative. Despite these problems, a screen of 48 papers from the 2020 volume of the Journal of Evolutionary Biology exemplifies that significance testing is still used almost universally in evolutionary biology. All screened studies tested default null hypotheses of zero effect with the default significance threshold of p = 0.05, none presented a pre-specified alternative hypothesis, pre-study power calculation, and the probability of ‘false negatives’(beta error). The results sections of the papers presented 49 significance tests on average (median 23, range 0–390). Of 41 studies that contained verbal descriptions of a ‘statistically non-significant’ result, 26 (63%) falsely claimed the absence of an effect. We conclude that studies in ecology and evolutionary biology are mostly exploratory and descriptive. We should thus shift from claiming to ‘test’ specific hypotheses statistically to describing and discussing many hypotheses (possible true effect sizes) that are most compatible with our data, given our statistical model. We already have the means for doing so, because we routinely present compatibility (‘confidence’) intervals covering these hypotheses.

This paper investigates the inverse option problems (IOP) in the extended Black--Scholes model arising in financial markets. We identify the volatility and the drift coefficient from the measured data in financial markets using a Bayesian inference approach, which is presented as an IOP solution. The posterior probability density function of the parameters is computed from the measured data. The statistics of the unknown parameters are estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which exploits the posterior state space. The efficient sampling strategy of the MCMC algorithm enables us to solve inverse problems by the Bayesian inference technique. Our numerical results indicate that the Bayesian inference approach can simultaneously estimate the unknown trend and volatility coefficients from the measured data.

In the past few decades, probabilistic interpretations of brain functions have become widespread in cognitive science and neuroscience. In particular, the free energy principle and active inference are increasingly popular theories of cognitive functions that claim to offer a unified understanding of life and cognition within a general mathematical framework derived from information and control theory, and statistical mechanics. However, we argue that if the active inference proposal is to be taken as a general process theory for biological systems, it is necessary to understand how it relates to existing control theoretical approaches routinely used to study and explain biological systems. For example, recently, PID control has been shown to be implemented in simple molecular systems and is becoming a popular mechanistic explanation of behaviours such as chemotaxis in bacteria and amoebae, and robust adaptation in biochemical networks. In this work, we will show how PID controllers can fit a more general theory of life and cognition under the principle of (variational) free energy minimisation when using approximate linear generative models of the world. This more general interpretation provides also a new perspective on traditional problems of PID controllers such as parameter tuning as well as the need to balance performances and robustness conditions of a controller. Specifically, we then show how these problems can be understood in terms of the optimisation of the precisions (inverse variances) modulating different prediction errors in the free energy functional.

Boolean functions and networks are commonly used in the modeling and analysis of complex biological systems, and this paradigm is highly relevant in other important areas in data science and decision making, such as in the medical field and in the finance industry. In a Boolean model, the truth state of a variable is either 0 or 1 at a given time. Despite its apparent simplicity, Boolean networks are surprisingly relevant in many areas of application such as in bioinformatics to model gene expressions and interactions. In the latter case, a gene is either ``on" or ``off" depending on its expression level. Despite the promising utility of Boolean modeling, in most practical applications the Boolean network is not known. Automated learning of a Boolean network and Boolean functions, from data, is a challenging task due in part to the large number of unknowns (including both the structure of the network and the functions) to be estimated, for which a brute force approach would be exponentially complex. In this paper we develop a new information theoretic methodology that we show to be significantly more efficient than previous approaches. Building on the recently developed optimal causation entropy principle (oCSE), that we proved can correctly infer networks distinguishing between direct versus indirect connections, we develop here an efficient algorithm that furthermore infers a Boolean network (including both its structure and function) based on data observed from the evolving states at nodes. We call this new inference method, Boolean optimal causation entropy (BoCSE), which we will show that our method is both computationally efficient and also resilient to noise. Furthermore, it allows for selection of a set of features that best explains the process, a statement that can be described as a networked Boolean function reduced order model. We highlight our method to the feature selection in several real-world examples: (1) diagnosis of urinary diseases, (2) Cardiac SPECT diagnosis, (3) informative positions in the game Tic-Tac-Toe, and (4) risk causality analysis of loans in default status. Our proposed method is effective and efficient in all examples.

The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) protects the personal data of natural persons and at the same time allows the free movement of such data within the European Union (EU). Hailed as majestic by admirers and dismissed as protectionist by critics, the Regulation is expected to have a profound impact around the world, including in the African Union (AU). For European–African consortia conducting research that may affect the privacy of African citizens, the question is ‘how to protect personal data of data subjects while at the same time ensuring a just distribution of the benefits of a global digital ecosystem?’ We use location privacy as a point of departure, because information about an individual’s location is different from other kinds of personally identifiable information. We analyse privacy at two levels, individual and cultural. Our perspective is interdisciplinary: we draw from computer science to describe three scenarios of transformation of volunteered/observed information to inferred information about a natural person and from cultural theory to distinguish four privacy cultures emerging within the EU in the wake of GDPR. We highlight recent data protection legislation in the AU and discuss factors that may accelerate or inhibit the alignment of data protection legislation in the AU with the GDPR.

The free energy principle (FEP) is a mathematical and scientific principle that describes the relationship between the physical behavior of a dynamical system and the interpretation of such behavior as carrying out inference. It blurs the boundary between the ontological mode of the system of interest and the epistemological significance it acquires through its dynamic interaction with the environment. New materialism (or neo-materialism), despite lacking a single definition, refers to a range of emerging perspectives that attempt to dismantle the long-held divisions between ontology, epistemology, and even ethics, with the aim of achieving a comprehensive transformation of naturalized thinking. In this context, new materialism provides powerful tools to reframe some of the conceptual foundations of the FEP. This paper is the first in a series that aims to systematically construct a neo-materialistic perspective for the FEP, exploring its wide-ranging implications. It serves as an introduction to the series, arguing for the justification of deploying new materialism to reframe the FEP and introducing some essential concepts to be utilized in developing a neo-materialistic account of the FEP.

Several studies have analyzed human gait data obtained from inertial gyroscope and accelerometer sensors mounted on different parts of the body. In this article, we take a step further in gait analysis and provide a methodology for predicting the movements of the missing parts of the legs. In particular, we propose a method, called GaIn, to control non-invasive, robotic, prosthetic legs. GaIn can infer the movements of both missing shanks and feet for humans suffering from double trans-femoral amputation using biologically inspired recurrent neural networks. Predictions are performed for casual walking related activities such as walking, taking stairs, and running based on thigh movement. In our experimental tests, GaIn achieved a 4.55 degree prediction error for shank movements on average. However, a patient's intention to stand up and sit down cannot be inferred from thigh movements. In fact, intention causes thigh movements while the shanks and feet remain roughly still. The GaIn system can be triggered by thigh muscle activities measured with electromyography (EMG) sensors to make robotic prosthetic legs perform standing up and sitting down actions. The GaIn system has low prediction latency and is fast and computationally inexpensive to be deployed on mobile platforms and portable devices.

The spread of ideas is a fundamental concern of today’s news ecology. Understanding the dynamics of the spread of information and its co-option by interested parties is of critical importance. Research on this topic has shown that individuals tend to cluster in echo-chambers and are driven by confirmation bias. In this paper, we leverage the active inference framework to provide an in silico model of confirmation bias and its effect on echo-chamber formation. We build a model based on active inference, where agents tend to sample information in order to justify their own view of reality, which eventually leads to them to have a high degree of certainty about their own beliefs. We show that, once agents have reached a certain level of certainty about their beliefs, it becomes very difficult to get them to change their views. This system of self-confirming beliefs is upheld and reinforced by the evolving relationship between agent's beliefs and its observations, which over time will continue to provide evidence for their ingrained ideas about the world. The epistemic communities that are consolidated by these shared beliefs, in turn, tend to produce perceptions of reality that reinforce those shared beliefs. We provide an active inference account of this community formation mechanism. We postulate that agents are driven by the epistemic value that they obtain from sampling or observing the behaviors of other agents. Inspired by digital social networks like Twitter, we build a generative model in which agents generate observable social claims or posts (e.g. `tweets') while reading the socially-observable claims of other agents, that lend support towards one of two mutually-exclusive abstract topics. Agents can choose which other agent they pay attention to at each timestep, and crucially who they attend to and what they choose to read influences their beliefs about the world. Agents also assess their local network’s perspective, influencing which kinds of posts they expect to see other agents making. The model was built and simulated simulated using the freely-available Python package pymdp. The proposed active inference model can reproduce the formation of echo-chambers over social networks, and gives us insight into the cognitive processes that lead to this phenomenon.

The object of this research is designing of new robot-to-robot communication system working in the middle of highway/roads to support mobile safety for approaching vehicles. The result of research project directs to a group of safety robot devices which induce a vehicle on a bypass route, as a vehicle guidance method using the same, and a vehicle safety guidance system. According to an embodiment of the present invention, a safety device includes a detector configured to detect a vehicle approaching the safety device, and an image projector configured to project an image onto a road surface approaching the vehicle when the detector recognizes an approach of the vehicle. It can include. According to the present invention, when it is necessary to guide the vehicle to the bypass route, the driver of the vehicle can grasp the detour route in time and move the vehicle to the next lane.

Power Electronic development determines introduction of nonlinear devices in Electric Power Systems. Introduction of nonlinear devices increase current harmonics in Transmission and Distribution Power Systems. Distribution transformers and feeders increase power losses and their nominal parameters are reduced. Present work introduces a procedure to evaluate maximum permissible load in single phase distribution transformers with massive introduction of a new type of nonlinear load which changes daily demand graphs.

Computer systems are involved in many critical human applications today, so that a small error can lead to serious and dangerous problems. These errors can be from an error in the incorrect design of the user interface to an error in the program code. The success of a software product depends on several factors. Given that different organizations and institutions use software products, the need to have a quality and desirable Software according to the goals and needs of the organization makes measuring the quality of software products. an important issue for most organizations and institutions, To be sure of having the right software. It is necessary to use a standard quality model to examine the features and sub-features for a detailed and principled study in the quality discussion. In this study, the quality of Word software was measured by Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System. In recent years, powerful systems called fuzzy inference systems on The basis of adaptive neural network (ANFIS) has been used in various sciences. Using the power of neural network training and the linguistic advantage of fuzzy systems, these types of systems have been able to realize the advantages of the two in terms of analyzing very powerful complex processes. Considering the importance of software quality and to have a good and usable software in terms of quality and measuring the quality of software during the study. It was applied at different levels to make the result of measuring the quality of Word software more accurate and closer to reality. In this research, the quality of the software product is measured based on the adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system in ISO standard. According to the results obtained in this study, it is understood that quality is a continuous and hierarchical concept and the quality of each part of the software at any stage of production can lead to high quality products.

This work presents significant results obtained by the application of global optimization techniques to the design of finite, normal form games with mixed strategies. To that end, the Fuzzy ASA global optimization method is applied to several design examples of strategic games, demonstrating its effectiveness in obtaining payoff functions whose corresponding games present a previously established Nash equilibrium. In other words, the game designer becomes able to choose a convenient Nash equilibrium for a generic finite state strategic game and the proposed method computes payoff functions that will realize the desired equilibrium, making it possible for the players to reach the favorable conditions represented by the chosen equilibrium. Considering that game theory is a very significant approach for modeling interactions between competing agents, and Nash equilibrium represents a powerful solution concept, portraying situations in which joint strategies are optimal in the sense that players cannot benefit from individually modifying their current strategies provided that other players do not change their strategies as well, it is natural to infer that the proposed method may be very useful for strategists in general. In summary, it is a genuine instance of artificial inference of payoff functions after a process of global machine learning, applied to their numerical components.

This paper presents a novel method of restoring the electron beam (EB) measurements that are degraded by linear motion blur. This is based on a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Wiener inverse filter, together providing autonomy, reliability, flexibility and real-time execution. This system is capable of restoring highly degraded signals without requiring the exact knowledge of EB probe size. The FIS is formed of three inputs, eight fuzzy rules and one output. The FIS is responsible to monitor the restoration results, grade their validity and choose the one that yields to a better grade. These grades are produced autonomously by analyzing results of Wiener inverse filter. To benchmark the performance of the system, ground truth signals obtained using an 18 um wire probe are compared with the restorations. Main aims are therefore a) Provide unsupervised deblurring for device independent EB measurement; b) Improve the reliability of the process; c) Apply deblurring without knowing the probe size. These, further facilitates the deployment and manufacturing of EB probes and probe independent and accurate EB characterization. It also makes restoration of previously collected EB measurements easier, where the probe sizes are not known or recorded.

Intelligent algorithms are recently used in the optimization process in chemical engineering and application of multiphase flows such as bubbling flow. This overview of modeling can be a great replacement with complex numerical methods or very time-consuming and disruptive measurement experimental process. In this study, we develop the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method for mapping inputs and outputs together and understand the behavior of the fluid flow from other output parameters of the bubble column reactor. Neural cells can fully learn the process in their memory and after the training stage, the fuzzy structure predicts the multiphase flow data. Four inputs such as x coordinate, y coordinate, z coordinate, and air superficial velocity and one output such as pressure gradient are considered in the learning process of the ANFIS method. During the learning process, the different number of the membership function, type of membership functions and the number of inputs are examined to achieve the intelligent algorithm with high accuracy. The results show that as the number of inputs increases the accuracy of the ANFIS method rises up to almost for all cases, while the increment in the number of rules has a effect on the intelligence of artificial algorithm. This finding shows that the density of neural objects or higher input parameters enables the moded for better understanding. We also proposed a new evaluation of data in the bubble column reactor by mapping inputs and outputs and shuffle all parameters together to understand the behaviour of the multiphase flow as a function of either inputs or outputs. This new process of mapping inputs and outputs data provides a framework to fully understand the flow in the fluid domain in a short time of fuzzy structure calculation.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

Accurate prediction of mercury content emitted from fossil-fueled power stations is of utmost importance for environmental pollution assessment and hazard mitigation. In this paper, mercury content in the output gas of power stations’ boilers was predicted using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method integrated with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The input parameters of the model include coal characteristics and the operational parameters of the boilers. The dataset has been collected from 82 power plants and employed to educate and examine the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid model of ANFIS-PSO model, the statistical meter of MARE% was implemented, which resulted in 0.003266 and 0.013272 for training and testing, respectively. Furthermore, relative errors between acquired data and predicted values were between -0.25% and 0.1%, which confirm the accuracy of the model to deal nonlinearity and representing the dependency of flue gas mercury content into the specifications of coal and the boiler type.

Classical methods for inverse problems are mainly based on regularization theory. In particular those which are based on optimization of a criterion with two parts: a data-model matching and a regularization term. Different choices for these two terms and great number of optimization algorithms have been proposed. When these two terms are distance or divergence measures, they can have a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) interpretation where these two terms correspond, respectively, to the likelihood and prior probability models.

Probabilistic inference problems have very broad practical applications. To solve this kind of problems under conditions of certainty, an effective mathematical apparatus has been developed. In real situations, obtaining deterministic estimates of relevant probabilities is often difficult; therefore, problems with handling uncertain estimates of probabilities appear. This paper examines the problem of probabilistic inference with probability trees provided that the initial probabilities are given in the form of intervals of their possible values.

Climate change impacts and adaptations is subject to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable development and management of the energy. In this study, spatial variation of wind power density at the turbine hub-height and its variability under future climatic scenarios are taken under consideration. An ANFIS based post-processing technique was employed to match the power outputs of the regional climate model with those obtained from the reference data. The near-surface wind data obtained from a regional climate model are employed to investigate climate change impacts on the wind power resources in the Caspian Sea. Subsequent to converting near-surface wind speed to turbine hub-height speed and computation of wind power density, the results have been investigated to reveal mean annual power, seasonal, and monthly variability for a 20-year period in the present (1981-2000) and in the future (2081-2100). The results of this study revealed that climate change does not affect the wind climate over the study area, remarkably. However, a small decrease was projected for future simulation revealing a slightly decrease in mean annual wind power in the future compared to historical simulations. Moreover, the results demonstrated strong variation in wind power in terms of temporal and spatial distribution when winter and summer have the highest values of power. The findings of this study indicated that the middle and northern parts of the Caspian Sea are placed with the highest values of wind power. However, the results of the post-processing technique using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model showed that the real potential of the wind power in the area is lower than those of projected from the regional climate model.

Corynebacterium glutamicum is a Gram-positive bacterium found in soil where the condition changes demand plasticity of the regulatory interactions, which study at the global scale has been challenged by the lack of data integration. Here, we update the manually-curated C. glutamicum transcriptional regulatory network, now including protein-protein interactions having a direct effect on gene transcription. The network model with regulations supported by any experimental evidence increased by 557 interactions regarding the previous (2018) version. 73 interactions supported by directed experiments were also included in a second model. We included 545 sRNA-mediated regulations in a third model with a total of 5164 interactions. We deposited the three network models in Abasy Atlas v2.4. We study the C. glutamicum regulatory structure by comparing it against the networks for more than 40 species, finding it to contrast in several global structural properties. We analyze the system-level components of the networks, finding that the inclusion of the sRNAs regulations changes their proportions, transferring part of the basal machinery to the modular class and increasing the number of modules while decreasing their size. Finally, we use strong networks of three model organisms to provide insights in future directions of the C. glutamicum network characterization.

Rapid post-earthquake damage diagnosis of bridges can guide decision-making for emergency response management and recovery. This can be facilitated using digital technologies to remove the barriers of manual post-event inspections. Prior mechanics-based Finite Element (FE) models can be used for post-event response simulation using the measured ground motions at nearby stations; however, the damage assessment outcomes would suffer from uncertainties in structural and soil material properties, input excitations, etc. For instrumented bridges, these uncertainties can be reduced by integrating sensory data with prior models through a model updating approach. This study presents a sequential Bayesian model updating technique, through which a linear/nonlinear FE model, including soil-structure interaction effects, and the foundation input motions are jointly identified from measured acceleration responses. The efficacy of the presented model updating technique is first examined through a numerical verification study. Then, seismic data recorded from the San Rogue Canyon Bridge in California are used for a real-world case study. Comparison between the free-field and the foundation input motions reveals valuable information regarding the soil-structure interaction effects at the bridge site. Moreover, the reasonable agreement between the recorded and estimated bridge responses shows the potentials of the presented model updating technique for real-world applications. The updated FE model is considered as the digital twin of the bridge and can be used to analyze the bridge and monitor the structural response at element, section, and fiber levels to diagnose the location and severity of any potential damage mechanism.

Climate change, biodiversity loss, and other social and environmental problems pose grave risks. Progress so far has been incremental and insufficient, and as a result scientists, global policy experts, and the general public increasingly conclude that bold change is required across all sectors of society. At least two kinds of bold change are conceivable: reform of existing societal systems (e.g., financial, economic, legal, and governance systems), including their institutions, policies, rules, and priorities; and transformation, understood as the de novo development of and migration to new, improved systems. This paper is the second in a series of three that together propose a novel science-driven research and development program aimed at societal transformation. Moreover, the series advances a conceptual framework and formal mechanics by which societal transformation might be approached. Two of the underlying hypotheses are that new societal systems can be developed in a science-driven process to be fit for purpose, and system fitness can be compared across designs. Societies are viewed as superorganisms, and systems are viewed as a societal cognitive architecture. The first paper in the series provides definitions, aims, hypotheses, and a worldview. This paper discusses motivations, the role of science in societal transformation, a theory of change, and fitness metrics. The proposed R&D program and theory of change are sound, viable, and affordable. The local-global-viral strategy invites the global science community to play a unique co-leadership role with local communities in the development, testing, and monitoring of new societal systems. Systems are implemented via a novel civic club model, where participation is voluntary. Clubs grow and replicate based on merit and aided by club networks, whose systems are also viewed as societal cognitive architectures. Benefits of the program and strategy are discussed.

We present a formalism to assess the safety of the COVID19 vaccines and infer a causal relation between vaccine administration and adverse effects, in particular death. We use data on adverse effects from VAERS covering the time interval [01-10-2020, 31-12-2021] (downloaded on 1 Feb 2022). We measure a vaccine fatality rate of order 0.01 for all vaccine manufacturers and identify a strong heterogeneity in the vaccine toxicity across vaccine lots, spanning up to four orders of magnitude. We compute the correlation between vaccination dates and death dates, and produce an estimate of the time lag that maximises the correlation, finding that the onset of adverse effects happened statistically (i.e. 32-41 percentiles) within one day after the vaccine administration and that death happened statistically (i.e. 22-50 percentiles) within about two weeks after the vaccine administration. These results provide data-based insights that can guide public health measures and health insurance policies.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) was the first biomedical signal where digital signal processing techniques were extensively applied. By its own nature, the ECG is typically a sparse signal, composed of regular activations (the QRS complexes and other waveforms, like the P and T waves) and periods of inactivity (corresponding to isoelectric intervals, like the PQ or ST segments), plus noise and interferences. In this work, we describe an efficient method to construct an overcomplete and multi-scale dictionary for sparse ECG representation using waveforms recorded from real-world patients. Unlike most existing methods (which require multiple alternative iterations of the dictionary learning and sparse representation stages), the proposed approach learns the dictionary first, and then applies an efficient sparse inference algorithm to model the signal using the learnt dictionary. As a result, our method is much more efficient from a computational point of view than other existing methods, thus becoming amenable to deal with long recordings from multiple patients. Regarding the dictionary construction, we locate first all the QRS complexes in the training database, then we compute a single average waveform per patient, and finally we select the most representative waveforms (using a correlation-based approach) as the basic atoms that will be resampled to construct the multi-scale dictionary. Simulations on real-world records from Physionet's PTB database show the good performance of the proposed approach.

A Mamdani-type fuzzy-logic model has been developed to link Mediterranean seagrass abundance to the prevailing environmental conditions. Big Databases, as UNEP-WCMC (seagrass abundance), CMEMS and EMODnet (oceanographic/environmental) and human-impact parameters were utilized for this expert system. Model structure and input parameters were tested according to their capacity to accurately predict seagrass families at specific locations. The optimum FIS comprised of four input variables: water depth, sea surface temperature and nitrates and bottom chlorophyll-a concentration, exhibiting fair accuracy (76%). Results illustrated that Posidoniaceae prefers cool (16-18oC) and low chlorophyll-a presence (< 0.2 mg/m3); Zosteraceae favors cool (16-18oC) and mesotrophic waters (Chl-a > 0.2 mg/m3), but also slightly warmer (18-19.5 oC) with lower Chl-a levels (< 0.2 mg/m3); Cymodoceaceae lives from warm, oligotrophic (19.5-21.0oC and Chl-a < 0.3 mg/m3) to moderately warm mesotrophic sites (18-21.3oC and 0.3 – 0.4 mg/m3 Chl-a). Finally, Hydrocharitaceae thrives in warm Mediterranaean waters (21-23oC) of low chlorophyll-a content (< 0.25 mg/m3). Climate change scenarios showed that Posidoniaceae and Zosteraceae tolerate bathymetric changes, Posidoniaceae and Zosteraceae are mostly affected by sea temperature rise, while Hydrocharitaceae exhibits tolerance in higher sea temperature rise. This FIS could be used by national and regional policy-makers and public authorities.

Industrial dynamical systems often exhibit multi-scale response due to material heterogeneities, operation conditions and complex environmental loadings. In such problems, it is the case that the smallest length-scale of the systems dynamics controls the numerical resolution required to effectively resolve the embedded physics. In practice however, high numerical resolutions is only required in a confined region of the system where fast dynamics or localized material variability are exhibited, whereas a coarser discretization can be sufficient in the rest majority of the system. To this end, a unified computational scheme with uniform spatio-temporal resolutions for uncertainty quantification can be very computationally demanding. Partitioning the complex dynamical system into smaller easier-to-solve problems based of the localized dynamics and material variability can reduce the overall computational cost. However, identifying the region of interest for high-resolution and intensive uncertainty quantification can be a problem dependent. The region of interest can be specified based on the localization features of the solution, user interest, and correlation length of the random material properties. For problems where a region of interest is not evident, Bayesian inference can provide a feasible solution. In this work, we employ a Bayesian framework to update our prior knowledge on the localized region of interest using measurements and system response. To address the computational cost of the Bayesian inference, we construct a Gaussian process surrogate for the forward model. Once, the localized region of interest is identified, we use polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the localization uncertainty. We demonstrate our framework through numerical experiments on a three-dimensional elastodynamic problem

The accurate prediction of the solar Diffuse Fraction (DF), sometimes called the Diffuse Ratio, is an important topic for solar energy research. In the present study, the current state of Diffuse Irradiance research is discussed and then three robust, Machine Learning (ML) models, are examined using a large dataset (almost 8 years) of hourly readings from Almeria, Spain. The ML models used herein, are a hybrid Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a single Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a hybrid Multi-Layer Perceptron-Grey Wolf Optimizer (MLP-GWO). These models were evaluated for their predictive precision, using various Solar and Diffuse Fraction (DF) irradiance data, from Spain. The results were then evaluated using two frequently used evaluation criteria, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that the MLP-GWO model, followed by the ANFIS model, provided a higher performance, in both the training and the testing procedures.

We propose a partial information decomposition based on the newly introduced framework of causal tensors, i.e., multilinear stochastic maps that transform source data into destination data. The innovation that causal tensors introduce is that the framework allows for an exact expression of an indirect association in terms of the constituting, direct associations. This is not possible when expressing associations only in measures like mutual information or transfer entropy. Instead of a priori expressing associations in terms of mutual information or transfer entropy, the a posteriori expression of associations in these terms results in an intuitive definition of a nonnegative and left monotonic redundancy, which also meets the identity property. Our proposed redundancy satisfies the three axioms introduced by Williams and Beer. Symmetry and self-redundancy axioms follow directly from our definition. The data processing inequality ensures that the monotonicity axiom is satisfied. Because causal tensors can describe both mutual information as transfer entropy, the partial information decomposition applies to both measures. Results show that the decomposition closely resembles the decomposition of other another approach that expresses associations in terms of mutual information a posteriori. A negative synergistic term could indicate that there is an unobserved common cause.

In this paper, we present the results of the research concerning extraction of informative gene expression profiles from high-dimensional array of gene expressions considering the state of patients' health using clustering method, ensemble of binary classifiers and fuzzy inference system. Applying of the proposed stepwise procedure can allow us to extract the most informative genes taking into account both the subtypes of disease or state of the patient's health for further reconstruction of gene regulatory networks based on the allocated genes and following simulation of the reconstructed models. We used the publicly available gene expressions data as the experimental ones which were obtained using DNA microarray experiments and contained two types of patients' gene expression profiles: the patients with lung cancer tumor and healthy patients. The stepwise procedure of the data processing assumes the following steps: in beginning, we reduce the number of genes by removing non-informative genes in terms of statistical criteria and Shannon entropy; then, we perform the stepwise hierarchical clustering of gene expression profiles at hierarchical levels from 1 to 10 using SOTA clustering algorithm with correlation distance metric. The quality of the obtained clustering was evaluated using complex clustering quality criterion which is considered both the gene expression profiles distribution relative to center of the clusters were these gene expression profiles are allocated and the centers of the clusters distribution. The result of this stage execution was selection of the optimal cluster at each of the hierarchical levels which corresponded to minimum value of the quality criterion. At the next step, we have implemented classification procedure of the examined objects using four well known binary classifiers: logistic regression, support-vector machine, decision trees and random forest classifier. The effectiveness of the appropriate technique was evaluated based on the use of ROC analysis using criteria included as the components the errors of both the first and the second kinds. The final decision concerning extraction of the most informative subset of gene expression profiles was taken based on the use of fuzzy inference system, the inputs of which are the results of the appropriate single classifiers operation and output is the final solution concerning state of the patient's health. To our mind, the implementation of the proposed stepwise procedure of the informative gene expression profiles extraction create the conditions for increasing effectiveness of the further procedure of gene regulatory networks reconstruction and the following simulation of the reconstructed models considering the subtypes of the disease and/or state of the patient’s health.

Lysine is the first limiting essential amino acid in rice because it is present in the lowest quantity compared to all the other amino acids. Amino acids are the building block of proteins and play an essential role in maintaining the human body’s healthy functioning. Rice is a staple food for large proportion of the global population, thus increasing the lysine content in rice will improve its nutritional value. In this paper, we studied the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice (Oryza Sativa) to identify the regulators of the lysine reporter gene LYSA (LOC_Os02g24354). Genetically intervening at the regulators has the potential to increase the overall lysine content in rice. We modeled the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice seedlings under normal and saline (NaCl) stress conditions using Bayesian networks. We estimated the model parameters using experimental data and identified the gene DAPF(LOC_Os12g37960) as a positive regulator of the lysine reporter gene LYSA under both normal and saline stress conditions. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the gene DAPF is a potent candidate for genetic intervention. Upregulating DAPF using methods such as CRISPR-Cas9 has the potential to upregulate the lysine reporter gene LYSA and increase the overall lysine content in rice.

Bayesian techniques for engineering problems, that rely on Gaussian process (GP) regression, are known for their ability to quantify epistemic and aleatory uncertainties and for being data efficient. The mathematical elegance of applying these methods usually comes at a high computational cost when compared to deterministic and empirical Bayesian methods. Furthermore, using these methods becomes practically infeasible in scenarios characterized by a large number of inputs and thousands of training data. The focus of this work is on enhancing Gaussian Process-based metamodeling and model calibration tasks, when the size of the training datasets is significantly large. To achieve this goal, we employ a stochastic variational inference algorithm that enables rapid statistical learning of the calibration parameters and hyperparameter tuning, while retaining the rigor of Bayesian inference. The numerical performance of the algorithm is demonstrated on multiple metamodeling and model calibration problems with thousands of training data.

Impulsive noise is the main limiting factor for transmission over channels affected by electromagnetic interference. We study the estimation of (correlated) Gaussian signals in an impulsive noise scenarios. In this work, we analyze some of the existing as well as some novel estimation algorithms. Their performance is compared, for the first time, for different channel conditions, including the Markov-Middleton scenario, where the impulsive noise switches between different noise states. Following a modern approach in digital communications, the receiver design is based on a factor graph model and implements a message passing algorithm. The correlation among signal samples as well as among noise states brings about a loopy factor graph, where an iterative message passing scheme should be employed. As it is well known, approximate variational inference techniques are necessary in these cases. We propose and analyze different algorithms and provide a complete performance comparison among them, showing that both Expectation Propagation, Transparent Propagation, and the Parallel Iterative Schedule approaches reach a performance close to the optimal, at different channel conditions.

Humanity faces serious social and environmental problems, including climate change and biodiversity loss. Risks are increasing and conditions deteriorating. Increasingly, scientists, global policy experts, and the general public conclude that incremental approaches are insufficient and transformative change is needed across all sectors of society. However, the meaning of transformation is still unsettled in the literature, as is the proper role of science in fostering it. This paper is the first in a three-part series that adds to the discussion by proposing a novel science-driven research-and-development program aimed at societal transformation. More than a proposal, it offers a perspective and conceptual framework from which societal transformation might be approached and understood. While acknowledging the necessity of reform to existing societal systems (e.g., governance, economic, and financial systems), the focus of the series is on transformation understood as systems change or systems migration—the de novo development of and migration to new societal systems. The series provides definitions, aims, reasoning, worldview, and a theory of change, and discusses fitness metrics and design principles for new systems. This first paper proposes a worldview built using ideas from evolutionary biology, complex systems science, cognitive sciences, and information theory that is intended to serve as the foundation for the R&D program.

By combining stochastic variational inference with message passing algorithms we show how to solve the highly complex problem of navigation and avoidance in distributed multi-robot systems in a computationally tractable manner, allowing online implementation. Subsequently, the proposed variational method lends itself to more flexible solutions than prior methodologies. Furthermore, the derived method is verified both through simulations with multiple mobile robots and a real world experiment with two mobile robots. In both cases the robots shares the operating space and needs to cross each other’s paths multiple times without colliding.

In this paper, we introduce the application of Type-I fuzzy inference systems (FIS) as an alternative to improve the prioritization in the FMECA analysis applied in cyber-power grids. Classical FMECA assesses the risk level through the Risk Priority Number (RPN). The multiplication between three integer numbers computes this, called risk factors, representing the severity, occurrence, and detectability of each failure mode and are defined by a team of experts. The RPN does not consider any relative importance between the risk factors and may not necessarily represent the real risk perception of the FMECA team members, usually expressed by natural language; this is the main FMECA shortcoming criticized in the literature. Our approach considers fuzzy variables defined by FMECA experts to represent the uncertainty associated with the human language and a rule base consisting of 125 fuzzy rules to represent the risk perception of the experts. To test our approach, we select a cyber-power grid previously analyzed by the authors using the classical FMECA. The results reveal our proposed fuzzy approach as promissory to represent the uncertainty associated with expert knowledge and to perform an accurate prioritization of failure modes in the context of electrical power systems.

The description of stellar interiors remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter $\rho _{0} = 2.8\times 10^{14} {\rm\ g\ cm^{-3}}$, regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to five to twenty times $\rho_{0}$, little can be said about the microphysics of such obejects. Here, we employ an MCMC strategy in order to access the variability of polytropic three-pircewised models for neutron star equation of states. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses up to 2.5 $M_{\odot}$. In addition, we also discuss the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from LIGO was used as inputs and treated as data set for testing case.

Bayesian models allow us to investigate children’s belief revision alongside physiological states like “surprise”. Recent work finds that pupil dilation (or the “pupillary surprise response”) following expectancy-violations may be predictive of belief revision. How can probabilistic models inform interpretations of “surprise”? Shannon Information considers the likelihood of an observed event, given prior beliefs – suggesting stronger surprise occurs following unlikely events. In contrast, Kullback-Leibler divergence considers the “dissimilarity” between prior beliefs and updated beliefs following observations – with greater surprise indicating more change between belief states to accommodate information. To assess these accounts under different learning contexts, we use Bayesian models that compare these computational measures of “surprise” to contexts where children are asked to either predict or to evaluate the same evidence during a water displacement task. We find correlations between the computed Kullback-Leibler divergence and children’s pupillometry responses only when children actively make predictions, and no correlation between Shannon Information and pupillometry. This suggests that when children attend to their beliefs and make predictions, pupillary responses may signal the degree of divergence between a child’s current beliefs and updated, more accommodating beliefs.

Observational studies have linked vitamin D insufficiency to pediatric type 2 diabetes (T2D) , but evidence from vitamin D supplementation trials is sparse. Given the rising prevalence of pediatric T2D in all ethnicities, determining a protective role of vitamin D has significant public health importance. We tested whether serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels are causally linked to youth-onset T2D risk using Mendelian randomization (MR). We selected 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with 25OHD in a European genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 443,734 individuals and obtained their effects on pediatric T2D from the multi-ethnic PRODIGY GWAS (3,006 cases/6,061 controls). We applied inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR, and a series of MR methods to control for pleiotropy. We undertook sensitivity analyses in ethnic sub-cohorts of PRODIGY, and using SNPs in core vitamin D genes or ancestry-informed 25OHD SNPs. Multivariable MR accounted for mediating effects of body mass index. We found that a standard deviation increase in 25OHD in the logarithmic scale did not affect youth-onset T2D risk (IVW MR odds ratio (OR) = 1.04, 95% CI=0.96-1.13, P=0.35) in the multi-ethnic analysis, and sensitivity, ancestry-specific and multivariable MR analyses showed consistent results. Our study had limited power to detect small/moderate effects of 25OHD (OR of pediatric T2D < 1.39 to 2.1). In conclusion, 25OHD levels are unlikely to have large effects on risk of youth-onset T2D across different ethnicities.

This paper presents an extension of the results obtained in previous work concerning the application of global optimization techniques to the design of finite strategic games with mixed strategies. In that publication the Fuzzy ASA global optimization method was applied to many examples of synthesis of strategic games with one previously specified Nash equilibrium, evidencing its ability in finding payoff functions whose respective games present those equilibria, possibly among others. That is to say, it was shown it is possible to establish in advance a Nash equilibrium for a generic finite state strategic game and to compute payoff functions that will make it feasible to reach the chosen equilibrium, allowing players to converge to the desired profile, con- sidering that it is an equilibrium of the game as well. Going beyond this state of affairs, the present article shows that it is possible to ”impose” multiple Nash equilibria to finite strategic games by following the same reasoning as before, but with a fundamental change: using the same fundamental theorem of Richard McKelvey, modifying the originally prescribed objective function and globally minimizing it. The proposed method, in principle, is able to find payoff functions that result in games featuring an arbitrary number of Nash equilibria, paving the way to a substantial number of potential applications.

In recent years, large language models have demonstrated remarkable performance across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, deploying these models for real-world applications often requires efficient inference solutions to handle the computational demands. In this paper, we explore the utilization of CPUs for accelerating the inference of large language models. Specifically, we introduce a parallelized approach to enhance throughput by 1) Exploiting the parallel processing capabilities of modern CPU architectures, 2) Batching the inference request. Our evaluation shows the accelerated inference engine gives an 18-22x improvement in the generated token per sec. The improvement is more with longer sequence and larger models. In addition to this, we can also run multiple workers in the same machine with NUMA node isolation to further improvement in tokens/s. Table 2, we have received 4x additional improvement with 4 workers. This would also make Gen-AI based products and companies’ environment friendly, our estimates shows that CPU usage for Inference could reduce the power consumption of LLMs by 48.9% (1252 W for A100 with AMD EPYC 7V13 vs 613 W for Intel® Xeon® Gold 6538N) while providing production ready throughput & latency.

Self-esteem, the evaluation of one's own worth or value, is a critical aspect of psychological well-being and mental health. In this paper, we propose an active inference account of self-esteem, casting it as a sociometer, or an inferential capacity to interpret one's standing within a social group. This approach allows us to explore the interaction between an individual's self-perception and the expectations of their social environment.When there's a mismatch between these perceptions and expectations, the individual needs to adjust their actions or update their self-perception to better align with their current experiences. We also consider this hypothesis in relation to recent research on affective inference, suggesting that self-esteem enables the individual to track and respond to this discrepancy through affective states such as anxiety or positive affect. By acting as an inferential sociometer, self-esteem allows individuals to navigate and adapt to their social environment, ultimately impacting their psychological well-being and mental health.

The traditional manual recording of vaccination records in Germany faced challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting the introduction of a Covid smartphone app with QR codes. However, this solution brought new challenges, emphasizing the need for a centrally managed European digital vaccination record for efficiency and validity. Thus, this study assesses the feasibility of using the HL7 FHIR standard in the healthcare industry for implementing a digital vaccination pass management and monitoring system. The system aims to offer convenience and improved efficiency for both patients and healthcare providers while promoting interoperability with other healthcare systems. We developed a prototype using modern technologies, such as React, Quarkus, and Keycloak, evaluating the applicability of FHIR in promoting interoperability within the healthcare industry. Results indicate potential benefits for patients and healthcare providers, offering secure access to immunization records, personalized recommendations, and streamlined management. However, challenges in integrating nuanced vaccination processes into the standardized FHIR system, necessitating custom extensions, and issues with manual data entry and identity provider integration, pose obstacles. Despite these challenges, the study suggests that implementing HL7 FHIR can enhance efficiency, data accessibility, and accuracy in the vaccination process, supporting broader digitization efforts in the German healthcare system and beyond.

Zearalenone is one of the most prevalent estrogenic mycotoxins produced mainly by Fusarium family fungi, and harmed the heath of animals. Zearalenone hydrolase is an important enzyme capable of degrading zearalenone into a non-toxic compound. Although previous research has investigated the catalytic mechanism of zearalenone hydrolase, information on its dynamic interaction with zearalenone remains unknown. This study aimed to develop a pipeline for identifying the allosteric pathway of zearalenone hydrolase. Using an identity analysis, we identified hub genes whose sequences can generalize a set of sequences in a protein family. We then utilized a neural relational inference (NRI) model to identify the allosteric pathway of the protein throughout the entire molecular dynamics simulation. The production run lasted 1 microsecond, and we analyzed residues 139-222 for the allosteric pathway using the NRI model. We found that the cap domain of the protein opened up during catalysis, resembling a hemostatic tape. We used umbrella sampling to simulate the dynamic docking phase of the ligand-protein complex and found that the protein took on a square sandwich shape. Our energy analysis using both MMPBSA and PMF analysis showed discrepancies, with scores of -8.45 kcal/mol and -1.95 kcal/mol, respectively. MMPBSA, however, obtained a similar score to that of a previous report.

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure, alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the actual estimation of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can be also performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.

This paper aims to introduce an overview of several aspects of the so-called Artificial Intelligence, their potential impacts on economic and social dimen- sions, and suggestions for possible approaches of investiment based upon effective and mature techniques. In this fashion, it is important to address from educational and academic issues to industrial densities and profiles, rel- atively to a given region, country or continent. Even etymological adequacy and psychological consequences of the denomination ”Artificial Intelligence” need some reflection, and suggestions for a lucid replacement are presented. In addition, suggestions about how can specific firms choose the right type of technique in order to improve profit and organizational efficiency. After all, what are the main transformations needed to amplify gains and structural improvements from the use of higher level technological mecha- nisms? Which connections can be established between the pillars of evolu- tionary economics and this field of knowledge? Which institutional contexts are able to benefit from AI tools, inducing constructive externalities to firms in terms of education, technical and scientific skills upgrading, so as to reach higher levels of employment in the long term and limit unemployment in the short one? Which branches of the so-called Artificial Intelligence are best suited to which types of activities? This work aims to contribute in the search for answers to these questions.

Coastal marine ecosystems worldwide, like Florida Bay, are increasingly affected by tide alteration and anthropogenic disturbances which affect water quality imbalance leading to algal blooms. Increased bloom persistence is a serious threat due to the long-lasting impact on processes like carbon cycle and services like species presence. However, exploring eco-environmental feedback patterns of algal blooms remains challenging and poorly investigated, also due to the paucity of data. Florida Bay, taken as an epitome, has long experienced algal blooms in its central and western regions, and in 2006 an unprecedented bloom occurred in the eastern habitats. We analyzed the occurrence of blooms from three perspectives: (1) the spatial spreading networks of chlorophyll-a (CHLa) that pinpoints source and unbalanced habitats; (2) the fluctuations of water quality factors pre- and post-bloom outbreaks to in assess environmental impacts of ecological dysbiosis and target prevention and control of algal of blooms; and (3) the biogeochemical-spreading network topological co-evolution to quantify ecosystemic stability and ecological shift likelihood in long-term. Here, we propose Transfer Entropy (TE) to quantify dynamical interactions between spatial areas and biogeochemical factors (ecosystem connectome) underpinning bloom emergence and spreading, as well as environmental effects; the Pareto principle is defined for identifying the salient eco-environmental interactions of CHLa. We quantified the spatial dynamics of algal blooms, and thus obtained areas in need for ecological monitoring and potential bloom control. Results show that algal blooms are increasingly persistent over space with long-term negative effects on water quality factor. A dichotomy is reported between spatial ecological corridors of spreading and biogeochemical networks as well as divergence from the optimal eco-organization: randomization of the former due to nutrients' overload and temperature increase leads to scale-free CHLa spreading and extreme outbreaks a posteriori. Subsequently this increases bloom persistence, turbidity and salinity with potentially strong ecological effects on highly biodiverse and vulnerable areas such as tidal flats and marshes. Algal blooms are important ecosystem regulators of nutrient cycles; however, beyond limit chlorophyll-a outbreaks cause aquatic species mortality due to their effect on water turbidity, nutrient balance (nitrogen and phosphorus in particular), salinity and temperature. Beyond compromising local environmental quality, socio-ecological services are also compromised at large scales, yet ecological assessment models like the one presented are in need of application in subtropical and tropical bays worldwide.

Vegetation status assessment is crucial for agricultural monitoring and management. Vegetation indices derived from high resolution image time series can be used to derive key phenological parameters for annual crops. In this work, we propose a procedure for the estimation of these parameters and their associated uncertainties. The approach uses Bayesian inference through Markov Chain Monte Carlo in order to obtain the full joint posterior distribution of the phenological parameters given the satellite observations. The proposed algorithm is quantitatively validated on synthetic data. Its use on real data is presented together with an application to real-time within season estimation allowing for phenology forecasting.

Deep learning heavily relies on statistical correlations to drive artificial intelligence (AI) innovations, particularly in computer vision applications like autonomous driving and robotics. However, despite providing a solid foundation for deep learning, these statistical correlations can be vulnerable to unforeseen and uncontrolled factors. The lack of prior knowledge guidance can result in spurious correlations, introducing confounding factors and affecting the model's robustness. To address this challenge, recent research efforts have focused on integrating causal theory into deep learning methodologies. By modelling the inherent and unbiased causal structure, causal theory can potentially mitigate the impact of spurious correlations effectively. Hence, this paper explores the basics of causal methodologies in image classification.

The work proposes a new approach for evolutionary global optimization which, in simple terms, may be described as a fusion of quantum and simulated annealing. This becomes possible by using basic concepts from Homotopy Theory, conjugated to the already existing Fuzzy Adaptive Simulated Annealing paradigm and other components. In this fashion, it occurs a temporal and nonlinear superposition of the two types of annealing, provoking interesting effects in runtime, including the so-called quantum tunneling, when there is a sudden transition between attraction basins of different minima without "climbing" potential barriers. In addition, the proposal includes a generalization of the "deformation" of Hamiltonians used in quantum annealing by suggesting the use of general homotopies between the surface corresponding to the cost function under processing and another specific landscape, being this possible because of the ability of Fuzzy ASA of handling time-varying objective functions. The proposed paradigm shows that it is possible and beneficial to superpose the two types of annealing, displaying amazing numerical results and suggesting a kind of interlacing or synergic behavior - perhaps we could call it an "annealing entanglement". Finally, given the fast advances in commercial quantum annealing processors, it seems sensible to expect that an implementation of the proposed approach using such devices may occur very soon. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm, some significant and detailed examples are included in the text, so as to illustrate and clarify the presented ideas.

This paper presents a method of fusion of identification (attribute) information provided by two types of sensors: combined primary and secondary (IFF) surveillance radars and ESM (Electronic Support Measures). In the first section, the basic taxonomy of attribute identification is adopted in accordance with the standards of STANAG 1241 ed. 5 and STANAG 1241 ed. 6 (draft). These standards provide the following basic values of the attribute identifications: FRIEND, HOSTILE, NEUTRAL, UNKNOWN and additional values: ASSUMED FRIEND and SUSPECT. The basis of theoretical considerations is Dezert-Smarandache theory (DSmT) of inference. The paper presents and practically uses for combining identification information from different ESM sensors and radars six information fusion rules proposed by DSmT - the Proportional Conflict Redistribution rules (PCR1, PCR2, PCR3, PCR4, PCR5 and PCR6). In the paper, rules of determining attribute information by ESM sensor equipped with the data base of radar emitters are presented. It was proposed that each signal vector sent by the ESM sensor contained an extension specifying a randomized identification declaration (hypothesis) - basic belief assignment (BBA). The paper also presents a model for determining the basic belief assignment for a combined primary and secondary radar. Results of the PCR rules of sensor information combining for different scenarios of radio-electronic situation (deterministic and Monte Carlo) are presented in the final part of the paper. They confirm the legitimacy of the use of Dezert-Smarandache theory into information fusion for primary radars, secondary radars and ESM sensors.

Most studies modelling population mobility and the spread of infectious diseases, particularly using meta-population-multi-patched models, tend to focus on theoretical properties and numerical simulations of such models. There is relatively scanty literature published on fit, inference and uncertainty quantification on epidemic models with population mobility. In this research, we have used three estimation techniques to solve an inverse problem and quantify its uncertainty on a human mobility-based multi-patched epidemic model, using mobile phone sensing data and COVID-19 confirmed positive cases in Hermosillo, Mexico. First, we have utilized a Brownian bridge model using mobile phone GPS data to estimate residence and mobility parameters of the epidemic model. In the second step, we have estimated the optimal model epidemiological parameters by deterministically inverting the model using a Darwinian inspired evolutionary algorithm (EA) known as the genetic algorithm (GA). The third part of the analysis involves performing inference and uncertainty quantification on the epidemic model using two Bayesian Monte Carlo sampling methods: t-walk and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The results show that the estimated model parameters and incidence adequately fit the observed daily COVID-19 incidence in Hermosillo. Moreover, the estimated parameters from HMC result into large credible intervals, improving their coverage for the observed and predicted daily incidences. We also observe improved predictions when using multi-patch model with mobility against the single-patch model.

Deploying UAVs as aerial base stations is an exceptional approach to reinforce terrestrial infrastructure owing to their remarkable flexibility and superior agility. However, it is essential to design their flight trajectory effectively to make the most of UAV-assisted wireless communications. This paper presents a novel method for improving wireless connectivity between UAVs and terrestrial users through effective path planning. This is achieved by developing a goal-directed trajectory planning method using active inference. First, we create a global dictionary using TSPWP instances executed on various training examples. This dictionary contains letters representing available hotspots, tokens representing local paths, and words depicting complete trajectories and hotspot order. By using this world model, the UAV can understand the TSPWP’s decision-making grammar and how to use the available letters to form tokens and words at various levels of abstraction and time scales. With this knowledge, the UAV can assess encountered situations and deduce optimal routes based on the belief encoded in the world model. Our proposed method outperforms traditional Q-learning by providing fast, stable, and reliable solutions with good generalization ability.

Equipping autonomous agents for dynamic interaction and navigation is a significant challenge in intelligent transportation systems. This study aims to address this by implementing a brain-inspired model for decision-making in autonomous vehicles. We employ active inference, a Bayesian approach that models decision-making processes similar to the human brain, focusing on the agent's preferences and the principle of free energy. This approach is combined with imitation learning to enhance the vehicle's ability to adapt to new observations and make human-like decisions. The research involved developing a multi-modal self-awareness architecture for autonomous driving systems and testing this model in driving scenarios, including abnormal observations. The results demonstrated the model's effectiveness in enabling the vehicle to make safe decisions, particularly in unobserved or dynamic environments. The study concludes that the integration of active inference with imitation learning significantly improves the performance of autonomous vehicles, offering a promising direction for future developments in intelligent transportation systems.

The hybrid method proposed in the study, ANFIS-GWO, combines the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) for the diagnosis of liver disorders. ANFIS is a powerful tool that combines the advantages of neural networks and fuzzy logic to create a hybrid model capable of handling complex and uncertain data. GWO is a metaheuristic optimization algorithm inspired by the social behaviour of grey wolves. In the ANFIS-GWO method, the hyperparameters of ANFIS are optimized using GWO. This optimization process aims to fine-tune the ANFIS model based on the available dataset, which consists of 7 characteristic attributes and 354 samples related to liver diseases. By adopting the hyper-parameters, the ANFIS-GWO method enhances the overall performance and accuracy of the diagnostic system. To evaluate the effectiveness of the ANFIS-GWO intelligent medical system, the study employs classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity analysis. Classification accuracy measures the overall correctness of the system in predicting liver disease cases. Sensitivity refers to the system’s ability to correctly identify individuals with liver disorders, while specificity measures its ability to correctly identify those without liver disorders. Experimental results demonstrate that the performance of the ANFIS-GWO method surpasses that of traditional Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) and ANFIS models that do not undergo an optimization phase. This suggests that the integration of GWO optimization significantly improves the diagnostic accuracy of the ANFIS model for liver disease diagnosis.

A theoretical account of development in mesocortical anatomy is derived from the free energy principle, operating in a neural field with both Hebbian and anti-Hebbian neural plasticity. An elementary structural unit is proposed, in which synaptic connections at mesoscale are arranged in paired patterns with mirror symmetry. Exchanges of synaptic flux in each pattern form coupled spatial eigenmodes, and the line of mirror reflection between the paired patterns operates as a Markov blanket, so that prediction errors in exchanges between the pairs are minimized. The theoretical analysis is then compared to the outcomes from a biological model of cortical neurodevelopment, in which neuron precursors are selected by apoptosis for cell body and synaptic connections maximizing synchrony and also minimizing axonal length. It is shown that this model results in patterns of connection with the anticipated mirror symmetries, at micro-, meso- and inter-arial scales, among lateral connections, and in cortical depth, explaining the spatial organization and functional significance of neuron response preferences, and compatible with features of both columnar and noncolumnar cortex. Multi-way interactions of mirrored representations provide a preliminary anatomically realistic model of cortical information processing.

Inspired by the reflective and deliberative control mechanisms used in cognitive architectures such as SOAR and Sigma, we propose an alternative decision mechanism driven by architectural appraisals allowing robots to overcome impasses. The presented work builds on and improves on our previous work on a generally applicable decision mechanism with roots in the Standard Model of the Mind and the Generalized Cognitive Hour-glass Model. The proposed decision mechanism provides automatic context-dependent switching between exploration-oriented, goal-oriented, and backtracking behavior, allowing a robot to overcome impasses. A simulation study of two applications utilizing the proposed decision mechanism is presented demonstrating the applicability of the proposed decision mechanism.

People with Intellectual Disability (ID) encounter several problems in their daily living regarding their needs, activities, interrelationships, and communication. On this concept, an interactive platform is proposed, aiming to provide personalized recommendations for information and entertainment, including creative and educational activities, tailored to the special users’ needs of this population. Furthermore, the proposed platform integrates capabilities of automatic recognition of health related emergencies, such as fever, oxygen saturation decline and tachycardia, as well as location tracking and detection of wandering behavior based on smartwatch/smartphone sensors, while providing automated assistance and appropriate alerts and notifications to the caregivers.