Practitioners who assess the risk associated with urban trees often factor in the presence or absence of visual tree defects when determining whether a tree may fail. While these defects are a main fixture in many tree risk assessment systems and best management practices, the research supporting their usefulness in predicting tree failure during storms is limited. When looking at past research involving populations of storm-damaged trees, there are several defects that have never predicted failure (or have been associated with reduced rates of failure). In this study, we took a closer look at four such defects: codominant branches; branch unions with included bark; multiple stems originating from the same point; and overextended branches. After Hurricane Ian, we revisited 1519 risk assessed trees where one of these four defects was identified as the primary condition of concern. Fourteen of these trees experienced branch failure during the storm (which hit the study area as a downgraded tropical storm). Upon closer inspection, none of these failures occurred at the defect of concern. Our findings indicate that none of the defects assessed appeared to increase the likelihood of tree failure in the species tested. Our results are in line with past research on these defects derived from post-storm assessments and analysis.

We replace the current industry-standard empirical forecasts of oil production from hydrofractured horizontal wells in shales with a statistically and physically robust, accurate and precise approach, using the Bakken shale as an illustration. The proposed oil production forecasting method extends our previous work on predicting fieldwide gas production in the Barnett shale and merges it with our new scaling of oil production in shales. We first divide the existing 14,678 horizontal oil wells in the Bakken into 12 static samples in which depositional settings and completion technologies are similar. For each sample, we construct a purely data-driven P50 well prototype by merging the GEV distribution fits of oil production from appropriate well cohorts. We fit the parameters of our physics-based scaling curve to the statistical well prototypes, and obtain their smooth extrapolations to 30 years on production. By calculating the number of potential wells of each Bakken region, and scheduling future drilling programs, we stack up the extended well prototypes to achieve the most plausible forecast. We predict that Bakken will ultimately produce 5 billion barrels of oil from the existing wells, with the possible increments of 2 and 6 billion barrels from core and noncore areas.

The increasing popularity of unconventional wells has sparked a heightened interest in evaluating and predicting their production performance. With the use of extended reach well structures, these wells are able to generate and access larger reservoir volumes. Hence, it is crucial to understand how the well's lateral trajectory affects its transient production performance. The assessment of lateral trajectory undulating amplitude effect on the flow behavior is performed in the current study based on the experimental results obtained at the University of North Dakota, Undulated Two-Phase (UTP) Flow Loop, injecting air and water mixture through a variable undulating amplitude section followed by a vertical section. The experiments showed that the undulating amplitude increase induced lower translational velocity, frequency, and length, with a consistent slug acceleration through the system profile from the inlet to the vertical section and a decreasing frequency when the slugs travel through the vertical section. Measured data shows that an increase of the horizontal pressure losses and variability is expected with a higher undulation amplitude, translating the fact that larger instabilities are observed for higher amplitudes. The numerical simulation predicted lower translational velocity and frequency, higher slug’s lengths, and similar vertical pressure losses when compared to the experimental results.