Background: Since the previous study dealing with the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio caused by COVID-19, the author has received many comments that prompted the question: "Why did an optimistic prognosis fail?" To answer this question, a more detailed and expanded analysis was carried out in a new study. Objective: To evaluate the dynamics of monthly numbers of cases, deaths, tests and CFR worldwide during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: Twenty three sets of databases, dated the 22nd of each month from January 2020 to November 2021, for 213 countries were collected from the Worldometer website. The number of cases, deaths, tests, CFR, IFR, etc. were counted for various periods of time for each of the 213 countries, then results related to different periods of time were compared. Results: The analysis of the main epidemiological parameters led to the division of three phases of the global pandemic evolution. The first phase (23.01.20-22.07.20), the second phase (23.07.20-22.01.21) and the third phase (23.01.21-22.07.21) were different in terms of the number of tests performed, new cases, and mortality due to COVID-19. By the end of the second phase, the worldwide statistics indicated the imminent end of the pandemic, but the third phase was characterized by a sudden rise in the number of new cases and deaths that could not be explained rationally. The most dramatic evolution of the epidemic curve occurred in the countries where doctors had successfully battled COVID-19 during the first two phases of the pandemic. Conclusions: Despite the decrease in overall death numbers during the latest months analyzed, additional study is necessary to identify the cause for the increase in the number of new cases and deaths during the third phase of the pandemic. Only complete information regarding the positive and negative impact of medical and non-medical methods of diagnostics and prophylaxis of COVID-19 can help to organize effective measures to end the current pandemic and prevent a similar one from occurring in the future. Presumably, there are several causes of the negative evolution of the current pandemic, including the overreliance on PCR tests, application of non-specialized premises for quarantine and treatment, decrease in herd and individual immunity, inadequate change of therapeutic protocols, and ignoring prophylactic treatment. It can be suggested that the use of immunemodulatory drugs, for example, thymus extract or thymic peptides, in groups of people with compromised immunity is necessary, and prophylactic and therapeutic protocols should be changed from the 'standard' types to 'personalized' ones.

In the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, in the global data on the case fatality ratio and other indices reflecting death rate, there is a consistent downward trend from mid-April to mid-August. The downward trend can be an illusion caused by biases and limitations of data or it could faithfully reflect a declining death rate. A variety of explanations for this trend are possible, but a systematic analysis of the testable predictions of the alternative hypotheses has not yet been attempted. We state six testable alternative hypotheses, analyse their testable predictions using public domain data and evaluate their relative contributions to the downward trend. We show that a decline in the death rate is real; changing age structure of the infected population and evolution of the virus towards reduced virulence are the most supported hypotheses and together contribute to major part of the trend. The testable predictions from other explanations including altered testing efficiency, time lag, improved treatment protocols and herd immunity are not consistently supported, or do not appear to make a major contribution to this trend although they may influence some other patterns of the epidemic.

We present a formalism to assess the safety of the COVID19 vaccines and infer a causal relation between vaccine administration and adverse effects, in particular death. We use data on adverse effects from VAERS covering the time interval [01-10-2020, 31-12-2021] (downloaded on 1 Feb 2022). We measure a vaccine fatality rate of order 0.01 for all vaccine manufacturers and identify a strong heterogeneity in the vaccine toxicity across vaccine lots, spanning up to four orders of magnitude. We compute the correlation between vaccination dates and death dates, and produce an estimate of the time lag that maximises the correlation, finding that the onset of adverse effects happened statistically (i.e. 32-41 percentiles) within one day after the vaccine administration and that death happened statistically (i.e. 22-50 percentiles) within about two weeks after the vaccine administration. These results provide data-based insights that can guide public health measures and health insurance policies.

Background: This study aimed to present the development process and characteristics of the Korean Registry of Acute Myocardial Infarction for Regional Cardiocerebrovascular Centers (KRAMI-RCC). Methods: We developed KRAMI-RCC, a web-based registry for patients with AMI. Patients from 14 RCCs were registered for more than 3 years from July 2016. It includes an automatic error-checking system, and user training and on-site monitoring are performed to manage data quality. Results: A total of 11,700 AMI patients were registered in KRAMI-RCC over 3 years (73.9% men). The proportions of patients with ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction at discharge were 43.4% and 56.6%, respectively. Of the total 3-year patients, 5.6% died in the hospital and 4.4% died 12 months after discharge. The case fatality within 12 months was 9.7%. Prehospital care data showed delayed arrival time after onset of symptoms (median 153 min) and low transportation rate by public ambulance (25.2%). Post-hospital care data showed lower participation rate in the second rehabilitation program (16.8%). Conclusions: The recently developed KRAMI-RCC registry has been more focused on pre-hospital and post-hospital data, which will be helpful in understanding the current state of AMI disease management and in making policy decisions to reduce case fatality in Korea.

Covid-19 fatality rates of 0.37% (Gangelt, Germany) and 0.17% (Santa Clara, USA) have been reported, estimated from serological studies. We show that the two confidence intervals strongly overlap when the uncertainty in the number of deaths is taken into account, so that the two investigations may be regarded as representative of the same population (tentatively: “Western society with no overload of the Health Care System during the pandemic”). Combining the results, the Covid-19 fatality rate is estimated to be found with 95% confidence in the range [0.1%; 0.3%].

The SARS-CoV-2 have caused a devastating pandemic of all times in the recent human history. However, there is a serious paucity in high quality data on aggravating factors and mechanisms of co-infection. This study aimed to identify the trending patterns of bacterial co-infections and types and associated outcomes in three phases of the pandemic. Using quality hospital data, we have investigated the SARS-CoV-2 fatality rates, profiles, and types of bacterial co-infections before, during, and after COVID-19 vaccinations. Out of 389 isolates used in different aspects, 298 was examined before and during the pandemic (n=149 before, n=149 during), death rates were 32% during compared to only 7.4% before pandemic with significant association (P value = 0.000000075). Death rate was 34% in co-infected (n = 170) compared to non-co-infected patients (n = 128) indicating a highly significant value (P value = 0.00000000000088). However, analysis of patients without other respiratory problems (n=28) indicated that among the remaining 270 patients, death was 30% in co-infected patients (n=150) and only 0.8% in non-coinfected (n=120) with high significant P value= 0.00000000076. The trending patterns of co-infections before, during, and after vaccinations showed a significant decline in Staphylococcus aureus with concomitant peaks in Gram-negatives in totals of (n= 149 before/n= 149 during): Klebsiella pneumonia (n = 11/49 before/during; E. coli n=10/24, A. baumannii n=8/25, and Ps. Aeruginosa n= 5/16, and S. aureus 13/1. Nevertheless, in post vaccination phase, (n= 91) gender-specific co-infections were examined for potential differences in susceptibility. Methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) dominated both genders followed by E. coli in males and females with the latter gender showing higher rates of isolations in both species. Klebsiella pneumoniae declined to third place mostly in male patients. The drastic decline in K. pneumoniae and Gram-negatives post-vaccination strongly imply a potential co-protection in vaccines. Future analysis would gain more insights into molecular mimicry.

The initial outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan (China) during the latter part of December 2019. Indonesia has the fourth-largest population globally and reported the country’s first case of the virus on 2nd March 2020. The World Health Organisation (WHO) in addition to several neighbouring provinces and educational institutions within the region began questioning the Indonesian government upon the initial case reported. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia during March 2020. The data were collected from Indonesian government databases and non-government organisations (NGOs). The data were analysed using Microsoft Office 2019 (Excel) and Adobe Illustrator 2017 software, was used in drawing the map depicting the distribution of COVID-19 in Indonesia. As at 31st March 2020, a total of 1,528 people in Indonesia have been infected by COVID-19, in addition to 136 mortalities (CFR of 8.9%). Jakarta, as the principal capital of Indonesia, quickly has become the epicentre of the virus since this period. Most patient cases were attributed to those aged between 31 and 70 years (72.64%), with male patients (64.93%) representing the highest incidence of cases compared to female patients (35.07%). The number of ventilating machines was 3,326, with hospital numbers at 859. The distribution of cases depicting COVID-19 was mainly seen in urban areas compared to rural areas. Males compared to females, are at a higher risk of contracting COVID-19, including those aged below 30, between 30 and 60 or above. Indonesia also has the highest case fatality rate (CFR) with respect to mortalities in Southeast Asia and has the second-highest CFR globally. Similarly, while the number of ventilator machines as at 31st March 2020 were sufficient in meeting the growing number of COVID-19 cases in the country, it is possible that the government may need to increase the number of ventilators if the cases continue to escalate.

In attempting to predict the further course of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers. Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models include assumptions about the percentage of detected cases among total infections while others completely neglect undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in model predictions can be significantly reduced by representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone undetected thus far.

The prevalence and case fatality rates of Pediatric Lassa fever disease (LFD) are not well documented. This study was aimed at determining the prevalence, pattern and outcome of Pediatric LFD. It was a prospective observational study. A total of 183 subjects that met the criteria for LFD suspects were recruited consecutively and subjected to Lassa virus PCR test. Structured questionnaire was used to collect information. Of the 183 children recruited, 24 tested positive to Lassa virus PCR, giving a positivity rate of 13.1%. Mean duration of illness at presentation was 8.54 ± 3.83 days. Fever, abdominal pain and vomiting were the three highest presenting complaints. Seven out of 24 children died giving a case fatality rate (CFR) of 29.2%. Subjects with bleeding, poor urine output, convulsions and unconsciousness were more likely to die of LFD. Positivity and CFR of LFD are high. Improved case finding and prompt treatment is advocated.

The severe respiratory distress syndrome (SRDS) has been a significant clinical issue in modern respiratory medicine. Its role in COVID-19 pandemic is not well defined. Outside-the-hospital SRDS is usually community-acquired septic pneumonia; however, in-hospitals incidences are complicated by co-infections. While SRDS is genetically selected in European and African origins, these are not clear in Middle East, particularly in COVID-19 backgrounds. There is a severe paucity in high quality data on correlations between COVID-19, ARDS, co-infectome, and patient demographics. We have conducted a comprehensive investigation on 298 patients for associations of SRDS, coinfections, and patient demographics on COVID-19 patients’ outcomes. Of these, 9.4% (n=28) had SRDS, and the rest (90.6%) had not. 54% of those with SRDS died while 84% survived; SRDS fatality was highly significant (Chi-square test P-value = 0.00000246). Irrespective of gender, the age of patients was significantly associated with SRDS (72.9 +/-8.9) compared to those without it (56.2 +/-15.1). However, there was no significant difference neither in the age of admitted patients before COVID-19 (58.5 +/-15.3) and during COVID-19 (57.2 +/-15.5) nor in the gender and COVID-19 fatality (Fisher Exact test 2-sided 1.000, 1-sided .546) ruling out that SRDS age-specificity were selected by virus susceptibility. A 100% of SRDS patients without bacterial co-infections survived while only 25% of those with co- infectome did not; this association was highly significant (P value= 0.00041). Co-infections alone without underlying SRDS was also associated with high fatality among patients (P value= 0.00000000076). Almost all COVID-19 patients without co-infectome (99.2%) survived while 28% of those with bacterial co-infection died. The major bacterial pathogens that potentially predisposed to SRDS, were Acinetobacter baumannii, and Escherichia coli either alone or in a mixed infection with Klebsiella pneumoniae were predominant species identified during SRDS attack. Thus, Gram-negative co-infectome potentially induced fatal SRDS aggravating COVID-19 outcome. These findings have significant clinical implications in specific differential diagnosis of SRDS syndromes for subsequent empiric therapy and patient management strategies. Future vertical investigation for similar mechanisms of cytokine-induced SRDS by Gram negative pathogens is imperative since hypervirulent strains are rapidly circulating in the region. The study is limited by a single center study confined to Ha’il hospitals; large scale investigation in major national hospitals would gain more insights.

There are two contrary opinions regarding the risk if mainland China (MC) moves away from its zero-COVID policy. Some experts think the risk shall be much lower than influenza as per MC’s own COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR), while some other experts think the risk shall be much higher than influenza as per the COVID-19 CFRs of other regions. We elucidate here that this and multiple other striking differences in the CFR between various scenarios all support and substantially resulted from the view that good IDM is highly powerful to mitigate COVID-19, where IDM (isolation-disinfection-maintenance) means isolation of COVID-19 cases from other people, disinfection of their living environments, and health maintenance (e.g., rest, nutrition, breathing). The high effect of good IDM is also supported by the theoretic functions of IDM in minimizing co-infections and maintaining body functions, and the fact that all the 505 COVID-19 deaths reported in MC in 2022 before May 5 died directly of severe underlying diseases with COVID-19. Although it is tough for people in poverty to obtain good IDM, good IDM can be feasible at home for the most mild cases and in hospitals for the most severe cases. Therefore, good IDM can be crucial to mitigating COVID-19 worldwide. It also suggests that the risk for China to end its zero-COVID policy depends on China’s control policies or measures. Based on the effect of IDM, the cautious co-existence policy was proposed for COVID-19 control. This policy could reduce the whole death toll in MC because good IDM is non-specific and can reduce deaths of various other diseases. The cautious co-existence policy (non-specific) and the vaccination policy (specific) aid each other to mitigate COVID-19, and they cannot replace each other. Those who are qualified in health for vaccination should be vaccinated against COVID-19 timely.

Across the global construction industry, fatalities continue to occur from high-risk activities where the risk controls have been defined, however were unreliable. In the mining industry, Critical Control Risk Management has provided positive results in reducing major accidents, which raises the question, could the Critical Control approach reduce the fatality rate in the construction industry? This study analysed 10 years of serious and fatal incident investigation reports from four international construction companies to i) assess the reliability of their Critical Controls (CCs) and ii) assess the factors which affect the reliability of CCs. The results show the reliability of CCs, measured by implementation and effectiveness, averaged just 42%. Human performance factors including risk identification, decision-making and competency together with supervision, job planning, communication organisational factors were identified as affecting the reliability of CCs. The study used bow-tie diagrams with real event data to find the actual CC effectiveness. This gave actionable findings directly related to individual CCs enabling the participating organization to focus resources on improving specific verification processes. The results confirm the applicability of CCs for the Major Accident Event hazards analyzed and highlights further review is required of the factors which need to be considered when implementing a CC program. This paper details our methodology and results, to assist others apply CCs as a risk management tool.

Objectives: COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by SARS-COV2 and transmitted from person-to-person through viral droplets remains a global pandemic. There is a need to understand the transmission modes, populations at risk, and how to mitigate the spread and case fatality in the United States (US) and globally. The current study aimed to assess the global COVID-19 transmission and case fatality, examine similar parameters by countries and determine evidence-based practice in extreme epidemiology response in epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction. Methods: A cross-sectional ecologic design was used to assess the preexisting data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality in March 2020 from the CDC, WHO, Worldodomter, and STATISTA. A rapid assessment between March 23^rd and 31^st, 2020, was utilized for the extreme epidemiology response. The case fatality, termed fatality proportion, was examined using mortality in relation to confirmed cases involving the world, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Italy, France, Spain, China, Germany, India and South Korea. Results: The COVID-19 is a global pandemic, with the US as the epicenter for transmission, representing 20.9% of all confirmed cases worldwide, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality, 30.6% of mortality as at 03/31/ 2020. The fatality proportion (FP) in Italy was 11.4%, Spain (8.8%), France (6.8%) and UK (6.4%). Despite the increased number of confirmed cases, the lowest FP was observed in Germany (0.96%) and South Korea (1.66%). There is increasing linear tends in transmission in the US, R²=0.97 as well as positive daily percentage change, ranging from 1.27% to 20.5%. Conclusions: The USA remains the epicenter for COVID-19 transmission, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality. The observed relatively low case fatality in Germany and South Korea is due to an “extreme epidemiology” response through the application of Wuhan, China’s early data on COVID-19 transmission control measures and optimized patient care. These data are suggestive of relaxing the clinical guidelines in the United States in COVID-19 testing, application of contact tracing and testing, case isolation and most importantly enhancing resources for case management and social and physical distancing globally, hence epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction.

Since identified as the pathogen responsible for an outbreak of severe respiratory distress in Wuhan, China, the 2019-nCoV coronavirus has caused over 30M cases and 1M deaths globally. Sporadic cases were identified in several states in the US from early January, and large-scale community transmission is believed to have started in late February, leading to a first spike in COVID-19 deaths and overall mortality in late April, and a second spike later in the summer. I show here that the dynamics of the pandemic were different in different regions of the US, showing a north-south pattern, with a first pandemic wave mainly in northern regions, followed by a second wave mainly in southern regions. Analysis of overall mortality data shows that the increase in mortality correlates well with COVID-19 incidence in most regions, and that from April through August COVID-19 deaths accounted for a substantial proportion of all deaths in all parts of the US.

There is much discussion among clinicians, epidemiologists, and public health experts about why case fatality rate from COVID-19 in Italy (at 13.3% as of April 20, 2020, versus a global case fatality rate of 6.9%) is considerably higher than estimates from other countries (especially China, South Korea, and Germany). In this article, we propose several potential explanations for these differences. We suggest that Italy’s overall and relative case fatality rate, as reported by public health authorities, is likely to be inflated by such factors as heterogeneous reporting of coronavirus-related fatalities across countries and the iceberg effect of under-testing, yielding a distorted view of the global severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also acknowledge that deaths from COVID-19 in Italy are still likely to be higher than in other equally affected nations due to its unique demographic and socio-economic profile. Lastly, we discuss the important role of the stress imparted by the epidemic on the Italian healthcare system, which weakened its capacity to adequately respond to the sudden influx of COVID-19 patients in the most affected areas of the country, especially in the Lombardy region.

late in December 2019 2019-nCoV was identified as the pathogen responsible for an outbreak of severe respiratory distress in Wuhan, China. The virus was detected in multiple countries during January, but it is believed widespread community transmission began late in February or early March. Since March the virus has caused over 100k confirmed deaths in the US, with some states more severely impacted, notably NY and NJ. Here I examine excess mortality at the national and state level from January through July 2020. I find that the increase in excess mortality began in late February, suggesting the pathogen was circulating undetected earlier than assumed. The timing and intensity of the increase in excess mortality varied across states, with two patterns emerging: an early, sharp increase reaching a peak during April-May, best exemplified by NY and NJ, and a shallower, sustained increase, reaching a peak in late July, observed mostly in the southern regions of the US.