In many research fields, statistical probability models are often used to analyze real-world data. However, data from many fields, such as the environment, economics, and health care, do not necessarily fit traditional models. New empirical models need to be developed to improve their fit. In this paper, we explore a further extension of the quasi-Lindley model. Maximum likelihood, least square error, Anderson-Darling algorithm, and expectation-maximization algorithm are four techniques for estimating the parameters under study. All techniques provide accurate and reliable estimates of the parameters. However, the mean square error of the expectation maximization approach was lower. The usefulness of the proposed model was demonstrated by analyzing a dynamical systems data set, and the analysis shows that it outperforms the other models in all statistical models considered.

In the context of Kalman filters, the predicted error covariance matrix $\mathbf{P}_{k+1}$ and measurement noise covariance matrix $\mathbf{R}$ are used to represent the uncertainty of state variables and measurement noise, respectively. However, in real-world situations, these matrices may vary with time due to measurement faults. To address this issue in CubeSat attitude estimation, an adaptive extended Kalman filter has been proposed that can dynamically estimate the predicted error covariance matrix and measurement noise covariance matrix using an expectation-maximization approach. Simulation experiments have shown that this algorithm outperforms existing methods in terms of attitude estimation accuracy, particularly in sunlit and shadowed phases of the orbit, with the same filtering parameters and initial conditions.

Fetal weight estimation before delivery is important in obstetrics, which assists doctors diagnose abnormal or diseased cases. Linear regression based on ultrasound measures such as bi-parietal diameter (bpd), head circumference (hc), abdominal circumference (ac), and fetal length (fl) is common statistical method for weight estimation but the regression model requires that time points of collecting such measures must not be too far from last ultrasound scans. Therefore this research proposes a method of early weight estimation based on expectation maximization (EM) algorithm so that ultrasound measures can be taken at any time points in gestational period. In other words, gestational sample can lack some or many fetus weights, which gives facilities to practitioners because practitioners need not concern fetus weights when taking ultrasound examinations. The proposed method is called dual regression expectation maximization (DREM) algorithm. Experimental results indicate that accuracy of DREM decreases insignificantly when completion of ultrasound sample decreases significantly. So it is proved that DREM withstands missing values in incomplete sample or sparse sample.

Dyadic data which is also called co-occurrence data (COD) contains co-occurrences of objects. Searching for statistical models to represent dyadic data is necessary. Fortunately, finite mixture model is a solid statistical model to learn and make inference on dyadic data because mixture model is built smoothly and reliably by expectation maximization (EM) algorithm which is suitable to inherent spareness of dyadic data. This research summarizes mixture models for dyadic data. When each co-occurrence in dyadic data is associated with a value, there are many unaccomplished values because a lot of co-occurrences are inexistent. In this research, these unaccomplished values are estimated as mean (expectation) of random variable given partial probabilistic distributions inside dyadic mixture model.

The precise prediction of air contaminant dispersion is essential to the air quality monitoring and the emergency management of the contaminant gases leakage incidents in the chemical industry park. The conventional atmospheric dispersion models can seldom give precise prediction due to inaccurate input parameters. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of dispersion model, two data assimilation methods (i.e. one is merely based on the typical particle filter while the other is a combination of particle filter and expectation-maximization algorithm) are proposed to assimilate the UAV observations into the atmospheric dispersion model. Two emission cases are taken into consideration, the difference between which is the different dimensions of state variables. To test the performances of the proposed methods, experiments corresponding to the two emission cases are designed and implemented. The results show that the particle filter can effectively estimate the model parameters and improve the accuracy of model prediction when the dimension of state variables is low. In contrast, when the dimension of state variables becomes higher, the method of particle filter combining expectation-maximization algorithm performs better in the parameter estimation accuracy and warm-up time. Therefore, the data assimilation methods are able to effectively support the air quality monitoring and emergency management in chemical industry parks.

Background: Ensemble tree-based models such as Xgboost are highly prognostic in cardiovascular medicine, as measured by the Clinical Effectiveness Metric (CEM). However, their ability to handle correlated data, such as hospital-level effects, are limited. Objectives: The aim of this work is to develop a binary outcome mixed effects Xgboost (BME) model that integrates random effects at the hospital level. To ascertain how well the model handles correlated data in cardiovascular outcomes, we aims to assess its performance and compare it to fixed effects Xgboost and traditional logistic regression models. Methods: A total of 227,087 patients over 17 years of age, undergoing cardiac surgery from 42 UK hospitals between 1 Jan 2012 and 31 Mar 2019 were included. The dataset was split into two cohorts: Training/Validation (n = 157196; 2012-2016) and Holdout (n = 69891; 2017-2019). The outcome variable was 30 days mortality with hospitals considered as clustering variable. The logistic regression, mixed effects logistic regression, Xgboost and binary outcome mixed effects Xgboost (BME) were fitted to both standardized and unstandardized datasets across a range of sample sizes and the estimated prediction power metrics were compared to identify the best approach. Results: The exploratory study found high variability in hospital-related mortality across datasets, which supported the adoption of mixed effects models. Unstandardized Xgboost BME demonstrated marked improvements in predictor power over the Xgboost model at small sample size ranges, but performance differences decreased as dataset sizes increased. Generalized linear models (glm) and generalized linear mixed-effects models (glmer) models followed similar results, with Xgboost models excelling also at greater sample sizes. Conclusions: These findings suggest that integrating mixed effects into machine learning models can enhance their applicability in clinical settings where sample size is small such as rare conditions.

In a wireless network, locations of base stations (BSs)/access points (APs)/sensor nodes can be modeled based on stochastic processes, e.g., a Poisson point process (PPP) or a deterministic pattern planned ahead by providers. While deterministic deployment does not provide tractable interference analysis in general, PPP yields tractable analysis for interference. However, PPP allows APs to be deployed very close to each other and gives pessimistic results compared to the field measurements. In this study, in order to address this issue, Lloyd’s algorithm, which functions as a bridge between random and structural APs deployments, is investigated for analyzing coverage probability in a network. The link distance distribution is modeled as a mixture of Weibull distributions and its parameters are obtained by using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for each iteration of Lloyd’s algorithm. The link distance distribution is further utilized for calculating the coverage probability approximately by exploiting the tractability of PPP.

The underground complicated testing environment and the fan operation instability cause large random errors and outliers of the wind speed signals. The outliers and large random errors result in distortion of mine wind speed monitoring, which possesses safety hazards in mine ventilation system. Application of Kalman filter in velocity monitoring can improve the accuracy of velocity measurement and eliminate the outliers. Adaptive Kalman Filter was built by automatically adjusting process noise covariance and measurement noise covariance depending on the differences between measured and expected speed signals. We analyzed the fluctuation of airflow flow using data of wind speed flow and distribution characteristics of the tunnel obtained by the Laser Doppler Velocimetry system (LDV) studies. A state-space model was built based on the tunnel airflow fluctuations and wind speed signal distribution. The adaptive Kalman Filter was calculated according to the actual measurement data and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The adaptive Kalman filter was used to shield fluid pulsation while preserving system-induced fluctuations. Using the Kalman filter to treat offline wind speed signal acquired by LDV, the reliability of Kalman filter wind speed state model and the characteristics of adaptive Kalman Filter were investigated. Results showed that the adaptive Kalman filter effectively eliminated the outliers and reduced the root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and the adaptive Kalman filter had better performance than the traditional Kalman filter in eliminating outliers and reducing RMSE. Field experiments in online wind speed monitoring were conducted using the optimized adaptive Kalman Filter. Results showed that adaptive Kalman filter treatment could monitor the wind speed with smaller RMSE compared with LVD monitor. The study data demonstrated that the adaptive Kalman filter is reliable and suitable for online signal processing of mine wind speed monitor.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

The extensive deployment of wireless infrastructure provides a low-cost way to track mobile users in indoor environment. This paper demonstrates a prototype model of an accurate and reliable room location awareness system in a real public environment, where three typical problems arise. First, a massive number of access points (APs) can be sensed leading to a high-dimensional classification problem. Second, heterogeneous devices record different received signal strength (RSS) levels due to the variations in chip-set and antenna attenuation. Third, APs are not necessarily visible in every scanning cycle leading to missing data. This paper presents a probabilistic Wi-Fi fingerprinting method in a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework for mobile user tracking. Considering the spatial correlation of the signal strengths from multiple APs, a Multivariate Gaussian Mixture Model (MVGMM) is fitted to model the probability distribution of RSS measurements in each cell. Furthermore, the unseen property of invisible AP has been investigated in this research, and demonstrated the efficiency of differentiation between cells. The proposed system is able to achieve comparable localization performance. The filed test results present a reliable 97% localization room level accuracy of multiple mobile users in a real university campus WiFi network without any prior knowledge of the environment.

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a popular method for parameter estimation in both applied probability and statistics but MLE cannot solve the problem of incomplete data or hidden data because it is impossible to maximize likelihood function from hidden data. Expectation maximum (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for solving this problem if there is a relationship between hidden data and observed data. Such hinting relationship is specified by a mapping from hidden data to observed data or by a joint probability between hidden data and observed data. In other words, the relationship helps us know hidden data by surveying observed data. The essential ideology of EM is to maximize the expectation of likelihood function over observed data based on the hinting relationship instead of maximizing directly the likelihood function of hidden data. Pioneers in EM algorithm proved its convergence. As a result, EM algorithm produces parameter estimators as well as MLE does. This tutorial aims to provide explanations of EM algorithm in order to help researchers comprehend it. Moreover some improvements of EM algorithm are also proposed in the tutorial such as combination of EM and third-order convergence Newton-Raphson process, combination of EM and gradient descent method, and combination of EM and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm.

This research article provides a comprehensive analysis of the Expectation of Life at Birth in India and its larger states and union territories (UTs), with a specific focus on rural and urban disparities. The data, obtained from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of India, highlights the variations in life expectancy by sex and area of residence, shedding light on the health and socio-economic conditions in different regions. The article discusses the implications of these findings and their relevance for public health policy and interventions.

This small article examines the pivotal roles of redundant and degenerate neural networks in the brain across three critical dimensions: evolutionary development, early childhood neural formation, and their implications in neurological diseases. Redundant networks, characterized by parallel neural pathways with similar functions, provide a foundation for cognitive resilience, ensuring continuity of brain functions despite damage or developmental anomalies. Degenerate networks, comprising structurally varied but functionally equivalent pathways, contribute to cognitive flexibility and adaptability, essential for innovative problem-solving and learning. From an evolutionary perspective, these networks have been instrumental in the brain's adaptation to diverse environmental challenges, facilitating cognitive maximization and the development of complex behaviors. The genetic underpinnings and environmental influences that shaped these networks are explored, highlighting their contribution to the evolutionary success of the human species. In the realm of early childhood development, the formation and reinforcement of these networks are crucial. The brain's plasticity during this period leads to the establishment of robust redundant networks and versatile degenerate networks, shaped significantly by environmental stimuli and learning experiences. This developmental phase lays the groundwork for cognitive abilities and resilience to neurological challenges later in life. Furthermore, the paper delves into the implications of these networks in the context of brain diseases. The disruption of the equilibrium between redundancy and degeneracy is linked to various neurological conditions, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, stroke and Huntington's disease. Understanding the roles and balances of these networks offers insights into the pathophysiology of these diseases and potential therapeutic approaches. This review underscores the significance of redundant and degenerate neural networks in the evolutionary context, their critical formation during early childhood, and their profound impact on brain health and disease. It highlights the need for further research into these networks to enhance our understanding of brain function and to develop targeted interventions for neurological disorders.

The study considers building a dynamic model of profit maximization for the car-sharing system and its verification on the example of implementing such a system in Astana (Republic of Kazakhstan). The region, bounded by the administrative boundaries of Astana, was divided into subregions by covering the region with regular hexagons placed side by side. A dataset was built with information on 1168 trips to Astana from January to March 2023. The Kepler visualization service constructed maps of the beginning and end of trips in the region and a map of trips binding to the hexagonal grid cells. Each cell of the grid corresponds to a specific sub-region, for which the quantitative parameters necessary for solving the profit maximization problem in the car-sharing system are calculated. Stations with cars will be placed in the cells of the grid, which will be available to car-sharing service customers. Based on the collected data, a dynamic (four periods per day) and static profit maximization model in the car-sharing system was built. Modeling was carried out based on the built models in the example of Astana. It was established that using a dynamic model of profit maximization in the car-sharing system increases the profit by 3.7%.

Different from national systems of innovation, a knowledge-based economy is grounded in the volatility of discursive knowledge enabling us to specify expectations. Expectations can be improved by testing against observations. Furthermore, expectations can differently be codified; for example, in terms of market perspectives and technological opportunities. The Triple Helix of university-industry-government relations provides first a (neo-)institutional model. However, three functions are recombined at the systems level in each instantiation: wealth generation (by industry), novelty production (academia), and legislation and regulation (government). The Triple-Helix synergy indicator enables us to use the institutional arrangements as instantiations of the knowledge-dynamics and thus to assess the generation of options and reduction of uncertainty in information-theoretical terms. The Fourth Industrial Revolution entails the transition to the reflexive entertaining of expectations in terms of models as increasingly the sources of innovations.

The sustainable development of mines has been the focus of attention in recent years, in China, there are a large number of untreated mined-out areas, and a series of disasters caused by instability of the goaf will bring heavy blows to people’s safety and financial resources. Mined-out areas management is an important part that cannot be ignored in mine sustainable development, and filling management is one of the most effective ways to solve the hidden danger of mined-out areas. Among them, cemented filling with tailings and the ultra-high-water backfilling are commonly used in mining enterprises. However, filling treatment will lead to increasing cost and the decreasing profits, which seriously depresses the motivation of mining enterprises and even leads to mor-al hazard. Therefore, the analysis of the economic benefits of goaf control plays a vital role in the sustainable construction and long-term development of mines. This paper proposed the mine-out area treatment economic model, the proposed method employs the guiding philosophy of news-boy model to create a mathematical economy model that provides the basis of goaf management mode for mine. The following research results are achieved: (1) The economic model of mined-out area backfilling treatment is constructed, and which is classified three different modes. (2) Com-bined with mathematical derivation and simulation, the influence of relevant variable parameters on each type of filling mode is discussed. (3) Various types of goaf filling treatment mode are com-pared with non-filling scheme (benchmark mode), so as to provide theoretical support for mining enterprises to choose the appropriate filling scheme. The results shows that the economic model of mined-out area management provides the optimal mode for mined-out area filling, the balance of tailings and ultra-high water filling materials procurement is realized, to making maximum profits. In this paper, the use of economic thinking has an important impact on the sustainable development of safety goaf management. To evaluate the sustainable development of goaf management by building economic models. It has important theoretical basis and practical guiding significance for the development and exploration of mined-out area management by combining economy with sustainable development.

Information-theoretically provable unique true random numbers, which cannot be correlated or controlled by an attacker, can be generated based on quantum measurement of vacuum state and universal-hashing randomness extraction. Quantum entropy in the measurements decides the quality and security of the random number generator (RNG). At the same time, it directly determines the extraction ratio of true randomness from the raw data, in other words, it obviously affects quantum random bits generating rate. In this work, we commit to enhancing quantum entropy content in the vacuum noise based quantum RNG. We have taken into account main factors in this proposal to establish the theoretical model of quantum entropy content, including the effects of classical noise, the optimum dynamical analog-digital convertor (ADC) range, the local gain and the electronic gain of the homodyne system. We demonstrate that by amplifying the vacuum quantum noise, abundant quantum entropy is extractable in the step of post-processing even classical noise excursion, which may be deliberately induced by an eavesdropper, is large. Based on the discussion and the fact that the bandwidth of quantum vacuum noise is infinite, we propose large dynamical range and moderate TIA gain to pursue higher local oscillator (LO) amplification of vacuum quadrature and broader detection bandwidth in homodyne system. High true randomness extraction ratio together with high sampling rate is attainable. Experimentally, an extraction ratio of true randomness of 85.3% is achieved by finite enhancement of the laser power of the LO when classical noise excursions of the raw data is obvious.

Based on the theory of behavioral economics, this study deeply analyzes the principles of behavioral economics involved in the development of mass sports, including psychological expectation, selection deviation and incentive mechanism, rationalize the current situation of group sports development, discusses how to effectively promote the development of mass sports, and puts forward a series of concrete countermeasures. In view of the problem of behavioral expectations, it is suggested to establish a comprehensive publicity and education system to improve the public's awareness and understanding of sports, and to stimulate individuals' active participation through self-setting goals and planning methods. In view of the selection bias, it is suggested that the government and relevant institutions provide diversified and attractive sports activity options, and make full use of technological means to increase the visibility and participation of activities.In addition, in view of the incentive mechanism problem, it is advocated to adopt differentiated incentive measures to meet the needs of different groups. The government can provide some preferential policies and establish incentive mechanisms to provide support for the organization of mass sports activities. It is expected that this research can stimulate the enthusiasm of the masses to participate in sports and promote the healthy development of mass sports.

The aim of the existing study is to investigate the influence of teacher expectation on students’ achievement and their attitudes towards English lesson and to increase the students’ academic success and positive attitudes towards this issue. In the study, a process which defined the existing situtation and which provided the educational processes to improve by changing the existing situation could be seen. For this reason, emancipatory/improving/critical action research model was used. The study was carried out on a sample group consisting of 87 students; 43 6th graders and 44 8th graders attending a school located in the city center of Düzce during the 2015-2016 academic year. In order to collect the data, “Teacher Expectancy Scale” developed by the researchers, “Attitude Scale towards English Course” and 7 test exams prepared by Turkish Ministry of National Education (MoNE) were used. The study was conducted for a total 48 hours in 12 weeks, 4 hours a week. As the result of the study, it was revealed that teacher expectation influenced the attitudes of the students towards the English lesson in a positive way and increased their academic achievements.

Nowadays, we use social networks such as Twitter, Facebook, WeChat and Weibo as means to communicate with each other and get to know others. Gradually social networks has become indispensable in our everyday life, and we cannot absolutely imagine what the daily life would be like without social networks. Through social networks, we can access friends' opinions and behaviors easily and are influenced by them in turn. Thus, an effective algorithm to find the top-K influential nodes (the problem of influence maximization) in the social network is critical for various downstream tasks such as viral marketing, anticipating natural hazards, reducing gang violence, public opinion supervision etc. Solving the problem of influence maximization in real-world propagation scenarios often involves estimating influence strength (influence probability between two nodes), which cannot directly observed. To estimate influence strength, conventional approaches propose various humanly-devised rules to extract features of user interactions, the effectiveness of which heavily depends on domain expert knowledge. Besides, they are often applicable for special scenarios or specific diffusion models. Consequently, they are difficult to be generalized into different scenarios, diffusion models and even domains. Inspired by the powerful ability of neural networks in the field of representation learning, we design a deep hierarchical network embedding model HGE to map nodes (with attributes) into latent space automatically. In general, HGE takes an attributed social network as the input for learning latent network representation of each node, incorporating hierarchical community structure, node attributes and general network structure into a unified deep generative framework. Then, with the leaned latent representation of each node, we propose a HGE-GA algorithm to predict influence strength and compute the top-K influential nodes through a greedy-based maximization algorithm. Extensive experiments on real-world attributed networks demonstrate the outstanding superiority of the proposed HGE model and HGE-GA algorithm compared with the state-of-the-art methods, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

Most of the existing influence maximization algorithms are not suitable for large-scale social networks due to their high time complexity or limited influence propagation range. Therefore, a D-RIS influence maximization algorithm is proposed based on the independent cascade model and combined with the reverse reachable set sampling. Under the premise that the influence propagation function satisfies monotonicity and submodularity, the D-RIS algorithm uses automatic debugging method to determine the critical value of the number of reverse reachable sets, which not only obtains a better influence propagation range, and greatly reduce the time complexity. The experimental results on the two real data sets of Slashdot and Epinions show that D-RIS algorithm is close to the CELF algorithm and higher than RIS algorithm, HighDegree algorithm, LIR algorithm and pBmH algorithm in influence propagation range. At the same time, it is significantly better than the CELF algorithm and RIS algorithm in running time, which indicates that D-RIS algorithm is more suitable for large scale social network.

Nowadays, many political campaigns are using social influence (SI) in order to convince voters to support/oppose a specific candidate/party. In election control via SI problem, an attacker tries to find a set of limited influencers to start disseminating a political message in a social network of voters. A voter will change his opinion when he receives and accepts the message. In constructive case, the goal is to maximize the number of votes/winners of a target candidate/party, while in destructive case, the attacker tries to minimize them. Recent works considered the problem in different models and presented some hardness and approximation results. In this work, we consider multi-winner election control through SI on different graph structures and diffusion models, and our goal is to maximize/minimize the number of winners in our target party. We show that the problem is hard to approximate when voters' connections form a graph, and the diffusion model is the linear threshold model. We also prove the same result considering an arborescence under independent cascade model. Moreover, we present a dynamic programming algorithm for the cases that the voting system is a variation of straight-party voting, and voters form a tree.

The article proposes a method for determining the p-value of correlations in compositional data, i.e., those data that arise as a result of dividing the original values by their sum. Data organized in this way are typical for many fields of knowledge, but there is still no consensus on methods for interpreting correlations in such data. In a space closed by normalizing quantity, correlation coefficients behave differently than under normal conditions: their probabilities of occurrence do not coincide with those inherent in the standard scale of estimates. In the tens of the new millennium, almost all newly emerging methods for estimating correlation in compositional data began to require mandatory log-transformation of the variable values. In the method proposed here there are no log-transformations. We return to the early stages of attempting to solve the problem and rely on negative shifts in correlations in the multinomial distribution. In modeling the data, we use a hybrid method that combines the hypergeometric distribution with the distribution of any other law. During our work on the calculation method, we found that the number of degrees of freedom in compositional data measures discretely only when all the normalizing sums are equal and that it decreases when the sums are not equal, becoming a continuously varying quantity. Estimation of the number of degrees of freedom and the strength of its influence on the magnitude of the shift in the distribution of correlation coefficients is the basis of the proposed method.

The maximization of entropy S within a closed system is accepted as an inevitability (as the second law of thermodynamics) by statistical inference alone. The Maximum Entropy Production Principle (MEPP) states that not only S maximizes, but $\dot{S}$ as well: a system will dissipate as fast as possible. There is still no consensus on the general validity of this MEPP, even though it shows remarkable explanatory power (both qualitatively and quantitatively), and has been empirically demonstrated for many domains. In this theoretical paper I provide a generalization of entropy gradients, to show that the MEPP actually follows from the same statistical inference, as that of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. For this generalization I only use the concepts of super-statespaces and microstate-density. These concepts also allow for the abstraction of 'Self Organizing Criticality' to a bifurcating local difference in this density, and allow for a generalization of the fundamentally unresolved concepts of 'chaos' and 'order'.

Despite the global richness of food plants, only a small portion is used as food for humans. Although most wild food plants (WFPs) are underutilized as food, they can contribute to food security and biocultural conservation through sustainable management. The goal of this research was to identify the best terminological presentation of a novel food product and to understand the influences of the expectations on products with WFP. This research was conducted using an online questionnaire with a final national sample of 724 people. The participants answered questions about their socioeconomic profile, food neophobia, prior knowledge, and expectations regarding the taste and appropriateness of native fruit juices. The questions were randomized so that a person would not receive the same picture or product name more than once. The results show that taste expectancy decreases in relation to products associated with WFP names and forest environments. Food neophobia is the variable that influences expectations the most. To ensure biocultural conservation and cultural valuation, WFP popularization programs should maintain the original (popular) name of the species. However, to help more distant consumers develop familiarity, the flavor, shape, color, or texture of these products can be associated with those of conventional plants.

China’s Grassland Eco-Subsidy Program has been implemented since 2011 to protect and sustain grassland resources and improve the economic situation of herders. In this case study, we evaluated the policy from the perspective of pastoral differentiations and their willingness to accept (WTA) the eco-subsidy. Using the contingent valuation method (CVM), we interviewed 410 herder households in the grass-livestock balance sub-policy zones across Inner Mongolia, and examined how their horizontal and vertical differentiation affected their WTA and compensation expectations in a sorted Logistic model and a Tobit model, respectively. Our findings suggest that horizontal differentiation of herders (variations of income sources and employments) promoted the WTA for eco-subsidy and inhibited the increase of compensation expectations. A large vertical differentiation extent (income disparity) lowered the WTA but raised expectations for payment levels. Besides, factors such as operating pasture area, precipitation, and supervision intensity had significant impacts. Grazing income remained the primary income source for most herder households, reflecting the characteristics of "the rational economic man." Our results suggest a need for policy improvements to guide herders towards becoming "rational ecological men.” By considering this differentiation, policymakers can better tailor the program to meet the needs and expectations of diverse herder households.

The use of risk measures such as the Value at Risk (VaR) or Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE) is required by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in determining a bank’s risk profile. However, both measures can be shown to have shortcomings in the information that they provide to regulators and investors. In this paper we present an introduction to risk measure calculations before demonstrating the weaknesses of these measures. Through the exploration of specific cases we show how familiar yet differing risk profiles have identical values for combinations of these measures. From this evidence we recommend that a sequence of several risk measures should be used to give a more accurate representation of the risk contained on banking balance sheet.

Financial time series and other human-driven, non-natural processes are known to exhibit fat-tailed outcome distributions. That is, such processes demonstrate a greater tendency for extreme outcomes than the normal distribution or other natural distributional processes would predict. We examine the mathematical expectation, or simply "expectation," traditionally the probability-weighted outcome, regarded since the seventeenth century as the mathematical definition of "expectation." However, when considering the "expectation" of an individual confronted with a finite sequence of outcomes, particularly existential outcomes (e.g., a trader with a limited time to perform or lose his position in a trading operation), we find this individual "expects" the median terminal outcome over those finite trials, with the classical seventeenth-century definition being the asymptotic limit as trials increase to this. Since such finite-sequence "expectations" often differ in values from the classic one, so do the optimal allocations (e.g., growth-optimal). We examine these for fat-tailed distributions. The focus is on implementation, and the techniques described can be applied to all distributional forms.

As one of the world's most populous countries, Indonesia is struggling with the composition of its people, the majority of whom are unemployed productive-age individuals with low education levels. Another issue is the high poverty rate, which is followed by issues of gender inequality. The government cannot solve these social issues on its own. There is a need for community support to solve these problems through sustainable social entrepreneurship activities. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior and Outcome Expectation, this study will determine the factors that influence the interest of individuals known as the Z and Millennial generation, aged 18 to 34 years old, in becoming social entrepreneurs. This study applied a quantitative approach with a judgmental sampling technique to a sample of Generation Z and Millennials who have ever participated in social activities but have not yet started their own business. The study gathered 210 respondents, who were then analyzed using the PLS-SEM method with multiple group analysis generation-based comparison. According to the findings, the Millennial Generation's Attitude Toward Behavior, Subjective Norms, and Outcome Expectation all had a positive impact on Social Entrepreneurial Intention. Meanwhile, Subjective Norms had no effect on Social Entrepreneurial Intention in the Z Generation. Only attitude toward behavior, perceived behavioral control, and outcome expectation have a positive effect on the development of social entrepreneurial intentions. Furthermore, the findings of this study confirm that subjective norms influence attitude toward behavior and Perceived Behavioral Control in both Generation Z and millennials.

Research for a theory of quantum gravity has recently led to the use of presheaf topos. Quantum uncertainty is linked to the truth values of intuitionistic logic. This paper proposes transposing this model into a classic probability context, that of conditional mathematical expectations. A simulation of Brownian motion is offered for illustrative purposes.