In this study, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS (Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity variant of Mixed Data Sampling) model to explore the predictability of commodity return volatility in relation to US climate policy uncertainty (CPU). Our analysis utilizes the 20-day annualized realized commodity volatility returns of nine global commodities (Aluminium, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Cotton, Rice, Soybean, Sugar, and Wheat) to construct the GARCH-MIDAS model, with Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) serving as the predictive variable. The outcomes of our investigation reveal a consistently positive and statistically significant relationship between CPU and the selected commodities. This implies that CPU effectively serves as a robust predictor of volatility in commodity returns. The implications drawn from our results suggest that climate change policies play a pivotal role in influencing economic activities within the commodity market. This underscores the substantial impact of climate change considerations on investment decisions and further emphasizes the integral role of climate change in shaping economic choices.

Cardamom is one of important spice commodities in the world; however, Indonesia’s export contribution to global market is considered low. Cardamom production in Central Java contributes to the export of Indonesian cardamom. Central Java has the potential of human and natural resource for cardamom cultivation, but it has not been optimally utilized. This article aims to study the comparative advantages of cardamom and its sustainability. The design of this study is exploratory research, in which a research aims to obtain description or study on the condition of comparative advantage of cardamom in Central Java. Revealed Comparative Agency (RCA) belongs to one of methods used to find out competitiveness of commodity export of a country viewed from a comparative advantage. Cardamom sustainability is analyzed descriptively based on the actual situation and by using RCA result analysis. The result shows that the RCA value above 1 means in that period the cardamom commodity of Central Java has a strong comparative advantage in the international market. Despite the strong comparative advantage, its value tends to decrease. A serious concern should be given, considering the sharp decline. Therefore, the sustainability of cardamom comparative advantage needs to be improved.

Financial stress can have significant implications for individuals, businesses, asset prices and the economy as a whole. This study examines the nonlinear structure and dynamic changes in the multifractal behavior of cross-correlation between the financial stress index (FSI) and four well-known commodity indices, namely Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRBI), Baltic Dry Index (BDI), London Metal Index (LME) and Brent Oil prices (BROIL), using multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis (MFDCCA). For analysis, we utilized daily values of FSI and commodity index prices from 16th June 2016 to 9th July 2023. The following are the most important empirical findings: (I) All of the chosen commodity market indices show cross correlations with the FSI and have notable multifractal characteristics. (II) The presence of power law cross-correlation implies that a noteworthy shift in FSI is likely to coincide with a considerable shift in the commodity indices. (III) The multifractal cross-correlation is highest between FSI and Brent Oil (BROIL) and lowest with LME. (IV) The rolling windows analysis reveals a varying degree of persistency between FSI and commodity markets. The findings of this study have a number of important implications for commodity market investors and policymakers.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze market reflexivity in agricultural futures contracts with different maturities. To this end, we apply a four-dimensional Hawkes model to storable and non-storable agricultural commodities. We find market reflexivity for both storable and non-storable commodities. Reflexivity accounts for about 50 to 70 percent of the total trading activity. Differences between nearby and deferred contracts are less pronounced for non-storable than for storable commodities. We conclude that the co-existence of exogenous and endogenous price dynamics does not change qualitative characteristics of the price discovery process that have been observed earlier without consideration of market reflexivity.

While deforestation rates decline globally they are rising in the Western Amazon. Artisanal-scale gold mining (ASGM) is a large cause of this deforestation and brings with it extensive environmental, social, governance, and public health impacts, including large carbon emissions and mercury pollution. Underlying ASGM is a broad network of factors that influence its growth, distribution, and practices such as poverty, flows of legal and illegal capital, conflicting governance, and global economic trends. Despite its central role in land use and land cover change in the Western Amazon and the severity of its social and environmental impacts, it is relatively poorly studied. While ASGM in Southeastern Peru has been quantified previously, doing so is difficult due to the heterogeneous nature of the resulting landscape. Using a novel approach to classify mining that relies on a fusion of CLASlite and the Global Forest Change dataset, two Landsat-based deforestation detection tools, we sought to quantify ASGM-caused deforestation in the period 1984–2017 in the southern Peruvian Amazon and examine trends in the geography, methods, and impacts of ASGM across that time. We identify nearly 100,000 ha of deforestation due to ASGM in the 34-year study period, an increase of 21% compared to previous estimates. Further, we find that 10% of that deforestation occurred in 2017, the highest annual amount of deforestation in the study period, with 53% occurring since 2011. Finally, we demonstrate that not all mining is created equal by examining key patterns and changes in ASGM activity and techniques through time and space. We discuss their connections with, and impacts on, socio-economic factors, such as land tenure, infrastructure, international markets, governance efforts, and social and environmental impacts.

Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output, climate change and commodity price volatility of Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria and other developing countries. To fill this gap, this study analyzed the reaction of coffee output to climate change and commodity price volatility. We used secondary data from 1961 to 2015 from reliable sources for Nigeria. The study adopted GARCH, ARCH and FMOLS in analysis of coffee output reaction to climate change and commodity price volatility. The findings show that coffee output in Nigeria is influenced by climate change and the international commodity price of coffee. The study demonstrates the potential benefits of improving coffee output and export through climate mitigation and adaptation measures and revival of Agricultural Commodity Marketing in Nigeria and other developing countries.

(Background:) Raspberry (Rubus idaeus L.) is very popular with consumers around the world for its intense flavor, attractive appearance and health benefits. In recent years, interest in healthy eating and natural products has increased, and raspberry fits perfectly into these trends, which translates into its greater importance on the consumer market. (Aim) The aim of the study was the commodity evaluation of raspberry fruits bearing fruit on 2-year-old shoots, cultivated under the conditions of varied nitrogen fertilization against the background of constant phosphorus-potassium fertilization. The first-order factor were cultivars ('Laszka' and ‘Glen Ample’), and the second-order factor was nitrogen fertilization (0, 50, 100 and 150 kg N ha-1), against the background of constant phosphorus-potassium fertilization (100 kg P2O5 and 120 kg K2O ha-1). The experiment was set up in a dependent split-plot design, in 3 repetitions. (Results) The importance of raspberry on the consumer market was shaped by: taste and quality of fruit, health benefits, naturalness and freshness, universality of use, availability and nutritional trends. (Conclusion) The tested cultivars were characterized by similar production and quality capabilities. Fertilization of the tested cultivars with a dose of 135 kg N·ha-1 turned out to be justified in terms of yield. Increasing nitrogen doses resulted in a significant increase in fresh fruit yield and 1000 fruit weight. Different doses of nitrogen increased fruit resistance to mechanical damage, firmness and improved quality indices.

This article investigates the dynamics of socio-ecological systems (SESs) unsustainability. By adopting a theoretical standpoint grounded in systems’ theory, the analysis shows how SESs’ teleology (or final cause) is of the utmost relevance for understanding unsustainability and how it is pivotal for envisioning possible evolutionary trajectories towards sustainability. Building on the contributions of both system and social scientists, the study argues that SES’s teleology is determined by dominant social ontologies that require a dialectical lens to be properly dealt with. The article therefore proposes the adoption of the adaptive cycle heuristic complemented by an historical-geographical approach based on world-ecology theory as a means to dynamically model of SESs’ behaviour. Such a perspective allows for the direct comparison between the four stages of the panarchy cycle (reorganization, exploitation, conservation, and release) and the four stages theorized by the world-ecology dialectics (expansion, appropriation, capitalization, crisis). In conclusion, the article claims that both system and social scientists would benefit from including in their analysis concepts and definitions from the other field, since both provide valuable insights about SESs' processes of change and both are necessary to envision transition pathways towards sustainability.

In Brazil, the production of corn and soybeans has been growing significantly in recent years. Considering that the strategies for investing in the production of these crops are conditioned by production costs and risk, the objective of this article is to propose a simulation model that indicates the trend of production costs for these commodities, considering the dispersion and correlation of selected key variable prices and corn and soybean production costs practiced between the years of 2018 and 2022. Fifty specialized companies in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, provided data for this study, and Monte Carlo simulations showed that the total cost of corn production/ha is between USD 600.00 and USD 1150.00, with a level of certainty of 84.7%, and soybeans are in the range of USD 260.00 to USD 420.00, with a level of certainty of 86.4%. The model evidenced a trend of decreasing production costs for the crops for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 harvests, as the input with the greatest impact (fertilizer) is showing a downward trend. On the other hand, costs related to labor, soybean seed, and fungicides are showing an upward trend, while dolomitic limestone corrective remains stable.

The issue of measurement reliability is certainly undervalued in the local agricultural marketplace organization. Besides, there was nothing identified concerning the extent of cereal commodity trade measurement cost. Hence, this paper aimed to estimate the magnitude of cereals trade quantity measurement cost caused by instrument error and unreliability; mainly by targeting the local marketplace in Ethiopia. The survey was conducted in six different districts’ marketplaces (n = 602) of Oromia region by employing administered structured questionnaires and site mass measurement calibration. The gathered data were analyzed using independent samples t-test, one sample t-test, and analysis of variance. According to the findings, the actual value measurement means of the quantity of most local units of the farmers were greater than small traders. The independent t-test result indicated that the average values of the quantity of the majority of units of measurement between farmers and small traders were varied significantly. Estimated measuring instruments’ error and unreliability associated average measurement cost of one-day market transaction over total cereals marketed amount were higher comparatively for a sack, bowl, and glass units. This study demonstrates that homogeneity in measurement, policy, and institutions that aid cereals trade would have an indispensable role to reduce measurement costs and ensure equitable exchange.

The widespread integration and growing dependence among currency, stock and commodity markets make these markets often very vulnerable to shocks and at risk of collapse at the same time. As a result, these trends threaten the sustainability of the entire financial system. In this study, we explore the spillovers and nonlinear dependences between the seven major foreign ex-change rates, crude oil and gold prices, a global stock price index, and oil and stock implied volatility indices as proxy variables for global risk factors by em-ploying directional spillover network approach. We also use multi-scale de-composition method and nonlinear causality test between these variables to capture multi-level relationships at short and long horizons. Major findings are summarized as follows. First, from the multi-scale decomposition analysis, we identify that Granger causality test results and the direction and strength of return spillovers change with the level of decomposition. Second, the results of nonlinear causality tests show variation in both the significance and direction of Granger causality relationships between the decomposed currency and other series at different timescales, especially for the decomposed oil, gold, and OVX series. Third, the measured directional spillover indices identify the EUR as the largest contributor of connectedness to the other series. The central role of the EUR is a net transmitter of connectedness to gold, oil, the GBP, JPY, and CHF.

Uncertain price movement in staple food commodities puts agrarian economies at risk if not monitored and managed consistently. Hence, an attempt has been made to analyze the price behavior and integration across major wholesale and retail markets for rice and wheat in India. Monthly data (July 2000 to June 2022) on prices viz., wholesale and retail were sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization and analyzed using growth rate, instability index, seasonal price index, Johansen’s test on cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function. Findings indicated strong evidence of price dynamics in the selected markets in terms of spatial and temporal variation, clear-cut seasonality linking to production, and price divergence between wholesale and retail markets. Johansen’s test indicated a strong integration between wholesale and retail markets exhibiting unidirectional-, bidirectional- and no-causality. Impulse response analysis revealed that the selected wheat and rice markets are efficient in terms of ‘price discovery’ which takes place initially in the wholesale market, and then transmitted to the retail market. The study advocates decision-making information to the producers, traders, and consumers who have a potential interest in getting advantage of the price movement. It is concluded that strengthening market intelligence and reducing the distortion in markets will improve the existing overall performance.

The food system, the most important driver of planetary transformation, is in a deep crisis. Therefore, seeking a sustainable and socially-fair transition pathway becomes an issue of utmost priority for our own survival. The consideration of food as a commodity, a social construct that played a central role in driving this crisis, remains the uncontested narrative to lead the different transition pathways what seems rather contradictory. By exploring the normative values in the transition landscape, this paper seeks to understand how relevant is the hegemonic narrative of “food as commodity” and its alternative of “food as commons” to determine transition trajectories and food policy beliefs. Applying the Multi-level Perspective framework and developing the ill-studied “agency in transition”, this research enquired food-related professionals that belong to an online community of practice (N=95) on valuation of food dimensions and agency in food transitions to check whether the valuation of food is relevant to explain personal stances in transition. Results suggest the socially-constructed view of food as commodity is positively correlated to the gradual reforming attitude, whereas food as commons is positively correlated to the counter-hegemonic transformers regardless the self-defined position in the transition landscape (regime or niches). At personal level, there are multiple loci of resistance with counter-hegemonic attitudes in varied institutions of the regime and the innovative niches, many of them holding this discourse of food as commons. Conversely, alter-hegemonic attitudes are not positively correlated to this alternative discourse and they may inadvertently or purportedly reinforce the ‘‘neoliberal narrative’’. Food as commons, a different narrative whose rationale is explained in the paper, seems to be a relevant framework that could enrich the multiple transformative constituencies that challenge the industrial food system and therefore facilitate the convergence of movements that reject the commodification of food.