ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1668.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Clouds; Remote Sensing; Climate change; Climate Data Records; Essential Climate Variables; Cloud properties; Stability and trends
Online: 23 June 2023 (11:49:48 CEST)
40 years of cloud observations are available globally from satellites allowing derivation of climate data records (CDRs) for climate change studies. The aim of this study is to investigate how stable these cloud CDRs are and whether they qualify stability requirements recommended by the WMO’s Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). We also investigate robust trends in global total cloud amount (CA) and cloud top temperature (CTT) that are significant and common across all CDRs. The latest versions of four global cloud CDRs, namely CLARA-A3, ESA Cloud CCI, PATMOS-x and ISCCP-HGM, are analysed. This assessment finds that all three AVHRR based cloud CDRs satisfy even the strictest GCOS stability requirements for CA and CTT when averaged globally. While CLARA-A3 is most stable in global averages, PATMOS-x offers the most stable CDR spatially. While we find these results highly encouraging, there however remain large spatial differences in the stability of and across the CDRs. All four CDRs continue to agree on the statistically significant decrease in global cloud amount over the last four decades, although this decrease is now weaker compared to the previous assessments. This decreasing trend is stabilizing or even reversing in the last two decades; the latter is seen also in MODIS-Aqua and CALIPSO GEWEX datasets. Statistically significant trends in CTT are observed in global averages in the AVHRR-based CDRs, but the spatial agreement in the sign and the magnitude of the trends is weaker compared to those in CA. We also present maps of Common Stability Coverage and Common Trend Coverage that could provide a valuable metric to carry out an ensemble-based analysis of the CDRs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0442.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Thermometers; Temperature records; Early instrumental meteorological series; Data rescue; Data recovery; Data correction; Climate data analysis
Online: 7 August 2023 (03:01:24 CEST)
A distinction is made between data rescue (i.e., copying, digitizing and archiving) and data recovery that implies deciphering, interpreting and transforming early instrumental readings and their metadata to obtain high-quality datasets in modern units. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes: palaeography and knowledge of Latin and other languages to read the handwritten logs and additional documents; history of science to interpret the original text, data e metadata within the cultural frame of the 17th, 18th and early 19th century; physics and technology to recognize bias of early instruments or calibrations, or to correct for observational bias; astronomy to calculate and transform the original time in canonical hours that started from twilight. The liquid-in-glass thermometer was invented in 1641 and the earliest temperature records started in 1654. Since then, different types of thermometers were invented, based on the thermal expansion of air or selected thermometric liquids with deviation from linearity. Reference points, thermometric scales, calibration methodologies were not comparable, and not always adequately described. Thermometers had various locations and exposures, e.g., indoor, outdoor, on windows, gardens or roofs, facing different directions. Readings were made only one or a few times a day, not necessarily respecting a precise time schedule: this bias is analysed for the most popular combinations of reading times. The time was based on sundials and local Sun, but the hours were counted starting from twilight. In 1789-90 Italy changed system and all cities counted hours from their lower culmination (i.e., local midnight), so that every city had its local time; in 1866, all the Italian cities followed the local time of Rome; in 1893, the whole Italy adopted the present-day system, based on the Coordinated Universal Time and the time zones. In 1873, when the International Meteorological Committee (IMO) was founded, later transformed in World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a standardization of instruments and observational protocols was established, and all data became fully comparable. In the early instrumental period, from 1654 to 1873, the comparison, correction and homogenization of records is quite difficult, mainly because of the scarcity or even absence of metadata. This paper deals about this confused situation, discussing the main problems, but also the methodologies to recognize missing metadata, distinguish indoor from outdoor readings; correct and transform early datasets in unknown or arbitrary units into modern units; finally, in which cases it is possible to reach the quality level required by WMO. The focus is to explain the methodology needed to recover early instrumental records, i.e., the operations that should be performed to interpret, correct, and transform the original raw data into a high-quality dataset of temperature, usable for climate studies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1436.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate normal; climatology; satellite remote sensing; clouds and radiation; climate change; climate data records; climate monitoring; essential climate variables; climate anomalies; WMO
Online: 23 October 2023 (11:06:23 CEST)
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends that the most recent 30-year period, i.e. 1991-2020, shall be used to compute climate normals of geophysical variables. A unique aspect this recent 30-year period is that the satellite-based observations of many different essential climate variables are available during this period, thus opening up new possibilities to provide a robust, global basis for the 30-year reference period in order to allow climate monitoring and climate change studies. Here, using the satellite-based climate data record of cloud and radiation properties, CLARA-A3, for the month of January between 1981 to 2020, we illustrate the difference between climate normal, as defined by guidelines from WMO on calculations of 30-yr climate normals, and climatology. It is shown that this difference is strongly dependent on the climate variable in question. We discuss the impacts of the nature and availability of satellite observations, variable definition, retrieval algorithm and programmatic configuration. It is shown that the satellite-based climate data records show enormous promise in providing climate normal for the recent 30-year period (1991-2020) globally. We finally argue that the holistic perspectives from the global satellite community should be increasingly considered while formulating the future WMO guidelines on computing climate normals.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0600.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Remote Sensing; Climate Data Record; Passive Microwave; Hydrology
Online: 30 July 2018 (22:11:39 CEST)
Passive microwave measurements have been available on satellites dating back to the 1970s on research satellites flown by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since then, several other sensors have been flown to retrieve hydrological products for both operational weather applications (e.g., the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager–SSM/I; the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit–AMSU) and climate applications (e.g., the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–AMSR; the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Microwave Imager–TMI; the Global Precipitation Mission Microwave Imager–GMI). Here the focus is on measurements from the AMSU-A, AMSU-B and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). These sensors have been in operation since 1998 with the launch of NOAA-15, and are also on board NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and the MetOp-A and -B satellites. A data set called the “Hydrological Bundle” is a Climate Data Record (CDR) that utilizes brightness temperatures from Fundamental CDRs to generate Thematic CDRs (TCDR). The TCDR’s include: Total Precipitable Water (TPW), Cloud Liquid Water (CLW), Sea-Ice concentration (SIC), Land surface temperature (LST), Land surface emissivity (LSE) for 23, 31, 50 GHz, rain rate (RR), snow cover (SC), ice water path (IWP), and snow water equivalent (SWE). The TCDR’s are shown to be in general good agreement with similar products from other sources such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2). Because of the careful intercalibration of the FCDR’s, little bias is found among the different TCDR’s produced from individual NOAA and MetOp satellites, except for normal diurnal cycle differences.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: IDF curves; urban drainage; regional climate model; bias correction; climate changes
Online: 4 April 2018 (08:26:21 CEST)
Drainage systems are usually dimensioned for design storms based on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of extreme precipitation. For each location, different IDF curves are established based on local hydrological conditions. Recent research shows that these curves also vary with time, and should be updated with recent data. The purpose of this study is to evaluate IDF curves obtained from precipitation simulations from the Eta RCM, comparing them with IDF curves obtained from data of a rainfall station. Climate models can be a useful tool for assessing the impacts of climate changes on drainage systems, referring precipitation forecasts. In this study, the Eta RCM was forced by two global climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. The bias of the precipitation data, generated by RCM models, was corrected using a Gamma distribution. The Juqueriquerê River Basin, in the cities of Caraguatatuba and São Sebastião, São Paulo State, Brazil, was chosen as a case study. The results show a good correlation between the IDF curves of simulated and observed rainfall for the control period (1960-2005), indicating the strong possibility of using the Eta RCM precipitation forecasts for 2007 - 2099 to establish future IDFs thereby, taking into account climate changes in urban drainage design.
ARTICLE | doi:10.3390/sci1020049
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; temperature trend; Himalaya; river basin; Nepal
Online: 14 August 2019 (00:00:00 CEST)
Study of spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature is vital to assess changes in climate, especially in the Himalayan region where livelihoods of billions of people living downstream depends on water coming from the melting of snow and glacier ice. To this end, temperature trend analysis is carried out in Narayani river basin, a major river basin of Nepal characterized by three climatic regions: tropical, subtropical and alpine. Temperature data from six stations located within the basin were analyzed. The elevation of these stations ranges from 460 to 3800 m a.s.l. and the time period of available temperature data ranges from 1960–2015. Multiple regression and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) methods were applied to fill in missing data and to detect trends. Annual as well as seasonal trends were analyzed and a Mann-Kendall test was employed to test the statistical significance of detected trends. Results indicate significant cooling trends before 1970s, and warming trends after 1970s in the majority of the stations. The warming trends range from 0.028
" style="position: relative;">∘C year ∘ " style="position: relative;">−1 to 0.035 − 1 " style="position: relative;">∘C year ∘ " style="position: relative;">−1 with a mean increasing trend of 0.03 − 1 " style="position: relative;">∘C year ∘ " style="position: relative;">−1 after 1971. Seasonal trends show highest warming trends in the monsoon season followed by winter, pre-monsoon, and the post-monsoon season. However, difference in warming rates between different seasons was not significant. An average temperature lapse rate of −0.006 − 1 " style="position: relative;">∘C m ∘ " style="position: relative;">−1 with the steepest value (−0.0064 − 1 " style="position: relative;">∘C m ∘ " style="position: relative;">−1) in pre-monsoon season and least negative (−0.0052 − 1 " style="position: relative;">∘C m ∘ " style="position: relative;">−1) in winter season was observed for this basin. A comparative analysis of the gap-filled data with freely available global climate datasets show reasonable correlation thus confirming the suitability of the gap filling methods.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0468.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate data; gridded product; data merging
Online: 18 December 2020 (13:29:38 CET)
This manuscript describes the construction and validation of high resolution daily gridded (0.05° × 0.05°) rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data for Bangladesh : the Enhancing National Climate Services for Bangladesh Meteorological Department (ENACTS-BMD) dataset. The dataset was generated by merging data from weather stations, satellite products (for rainfall) and reanalysis (for temperature). ENACTS-BMD is the first high-resolution gridded surface meteorological dataset developed specifically for studies of surface climate processes in Bangladesh. Its record begins in January 1981 and is updated in real-time monthly and outputs have daily, decadal and monthly time resolution. The Climate Data Tools (CDT), developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, is used to generate the dataset. This data processing includes the collection of weather and gridded data, quality control of stations data, downscaling of the reanalysis for temperature, bias correction of both satellite rainfall and downscaled reanalysis of temperature, and the combination of station and bias-corrected gridded data. The ENACTS-BMD dataset is available as an open-access product at BMD’s official website, allowing the enhancement of the provision of services, overcoming the challenges of data quality, availability, and access, promoting at the same time the engagement and use by stakeholders.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0257.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: climate change adaptation; adaptation plan; small municipality; France, United States; climate services; information
Online: 14 November 2022 (11:10:35 CET)
There is a growing consensus that to effectively adapt to climate change, cities need user-friendly tools and reliable high-resolution biophysical and socio-economic data for analysis, mapping, modeling, and visualization. This study examines availability of various types of information used in climate adaptation plans of 40 municipalities with population less than 300,000 people in the United and in France, probing into the choice and usage of relevant information by small municipalities. We argue that non-climatic spatial data, such as population demographic and socio-economic patterns, urban infrastructure, and environmental data must be integrated with climate tools and datasets to inform effective vulnerability assessment and equitable climate adaptation planning goals. Climate adaptation plans frequently fail to address the existing structural inequalities and environmental injustices in urban infrastructure and land use. Adaptation methodological approaches should be reassessed in the context of much needed societal transformation. Lessons learned from our studies offer valuable insights for potential development of the national and state-level climate adaptation information services for cities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0169.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: GSMaP; station observations; validation; climatology; climate variability
Online: 3 November 2023 (06:32:43 CET)
In this analysis, we assess the performance of GSMaP-GNRT6 data in capturing precipitation climatology and climate variability across China from 2001 to 2020. The evaluation involves comparing four precipitation indices of accumulated precipitation, the number of rainy days, rainstorm days, and precipitation maximum with the daily precipitation data from 2419 stations in China. The findings reveal that the GSMaP data effectively captures the overall spatial distribution of annual, summer, and monthly precipitation. However, it exhibits minor limitations in accurately depicting the spatial distribution of the number of rainy days from July to September and the precipitation maximum during wintertime in eastern China. While the GSMaP data depicts a coherent annual cycle consistent with the station observations, a general underestimation is observed. Notably, the GSMaP data presents a much smoother annual cycle in precipitation maximum. Regarding accumulated precipitation, the number of rainstorm days, and precipitation maximum, the GSMaP data shows an almost consistent interannual variation and increasing trends, aligning with station observations. However, it is noteworthy that the magnitude of the increasing trend based on the GSMaP data is greater, especially entering the early 21st century. Conversely, a significant discrepancy in the annual variation and an almost opposite changing trend are noticed in the number of rainy days between the GSMaP data and station observations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0155.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Space And Planetary Science Keywords: essential climate variables; climate data records; earth observation satellites; quality assurance; traceability; user requirements; climate applications; surface albedo; LAI; FAPAR; NO2; HCHO; CO
Online: 11 June 2018 (11:24:59 CEST)
Data from Earth Observation (EO) satellites are increasingly used to monitor the environment, understand variability and change, inform evaluations of climate model forecasts and manage natural resources. Policy makers are progressively relying on the information derived from these datasets to make decisions on mitigating and adapting to climate change. These decisions should be evidence based, which requires confidence in derived products as well as the reference measurements used to calibrate, validate or inform product development. In support of the European Union’s Earth Observation Programmes Copernicus Climate Change Service, the Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) project fulfilled a gap in the delivery of climate quality satellite derived datasets by prototyping a robust, generic system for the implementation and evaluation of Quality Assurance (QA) measures for satellite-derived ECV climate data record products. The project demonstrated the QA system on six new long-term, climate quality ECV data records for surface Albedo, Leaf Area Index, FAPAR, NO2, HCHO and CO. Provision of standardized QA information provides data users with evidence-based confidence in the products and enables judgement on the fitness-for-purpose of various ECV data products their specific applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0408.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: surface albedo; remote sensing; geostationary satellites; climate data records; essential climate variables; near real-time; operational processing; climate; land surface modeling
Online: 26 June 2018 (10:31:10 CEST)
Land surface albedo determines the splitting of downwelling solar radiation into components which are either reflected back to the atmosphere or absorbed by the surface. Land surface albedo is an important variable for the climate community and therefore was defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Within the scope of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) of EUMETSAT, a near-real time (NRT) daily albedo product was developed in the last decade from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument on board the geostationary satellites of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series. In this study we present a new collection of albedo satellite products based on the same satellite data. The MSG Ten-day ALbedo (MTAL) product incorporates MSG observations over 31 days with a frequency of NRT production of 10 days. The MTAL collection is more dedicated to climate analysis studies compared to the daily albedo that was initially designed for the weather prediction community. For this reason, a homogeneous reprocessing of MTAL was done in 2018 to generate a Climate Data Record (CDR). The resulting product is called MTAL-R and has been made available to the community in addition to the NRT version of the MTAL product which has been available for several years. The retrieval algorithm behind the MTAL products comprises three distinct modules: one for atmospheric correction, one for daily inversion of a semi-empirical model of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function, and one for monthly composition that also determines surface albedo values. In this study the MTAL-R CDR is compared to ground surface measurements and concomitant albedo products collected by sensors on-board polar-orbiting satellites (SPOT-VGT and MODIS). We show that MTAL-R meets the quality requirements if MODIS or SPOT-VGT are considered as reference. This work leads to 14 years of production of geostationary land surface albedo products with a guaranteed continuity in the LSA SAF for the future years with the forthcoming third generation of European geostationary satellites.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0325.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: big data; architecture; agriculture; climate change; systematic literature review
Online: 24 May 2022 (07:42:55 CEST)
Climate change is currently one of the main problems facing agriculture to achieve sustainability. It causes situations such as drought, increased rainfall, and increased diseases, causing a decrease in food production. In order to combat these problems, Agricultural Big Data contributes with tools that allow improving the understanding of complex, multivariate, and unpredictable agricultural ecosystems through the collection, storage, processing, and analysis of vast amounts of data from diverse heterogeneous sources. This research aims to discuss the advancement of technologies used in Agricultural Big Data architectures in the context of climate change. The study aims to highlight the tools used to process, analyze, and visualize the data and discuss the use of the architectures in the crop, water, climate, and soil management, especially to analyze the context, whether it is in Resilience Mitigation or Adaptation. The PRISMA protocol guided the study, finding 33 relevant papers. Despite the advances in this line of research, few papers were found that mention the components of the architectures, in addition to the lack of standards and the use of reference architectures, which allow the proper development of Agricultural Big Data in the context of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0267.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Trend analysis, Extremes indices, Climate change, ETCCDI
Online: 26 June 2019 (13:50:18 CEST)
This paper performs non-parametric Mann Kendall (MK) trend analysis of historical hydroclimatic data (1961-2016), an ensemble climate model validation and a computation of 16 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature and rainfall extremes indices. The climate indices are evaluated using MK test and annual trend analysis for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) future scenarios from 2020 to 2045 over Mono River Basin (MRB) in Togo. The annual and seasonal trend analyses are assessed on historical potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, rainfall and discharge data. Results show positive and negative trends of hydroclimatic data over MRB from1961 to 2016. Mean temperatures increase significantly in most of the stations while a negative non-significant trend is noticed for rainfall. Meanwhile, the discharge presents a significant seasonal and annual trend for three gauge stations (Corrokope, Nangbéto and Athiémé). Validation of the ensemble climate models reveals that the model under-estimates observations at Sokode, Atkakpamé and Tabligbo stations, however linear regression and spatial correlation coefficients are higher than 0.6. Moreover, the percentage of bias between climate model and observations are less than 15% at most of the stations. Finally, the computation of extreme climatic indices under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios shows a significant annual trend of some extreme climatic indices of rainfall and temperature at selected stations between 2020 and 2045 in the MRB. Therefore, relevant governmental politics are needed to elaborate strategies and measures to cope with projected climate changes impacts in the country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0271.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Gastroenterology And Hepatology Keywords: peptic ulcers; seasonal variation; Superposition Mechanism; climate; work; vacation; environmental factor; psychological stress
Online: 20 September 2023 (03:32:52 CEST)
Background: The seasonal variation of peptic ulcers is a rhythmic phenomenon reported worldwide, exhibiting diverse patterns and controversies. Unfortunately, it has remained an unresolved mystery for more than 90 years. Numerous studies have found that this phenomenon was closely associated with multiple environmental factors, but the underlying mechanism has never been elucidated. Objectives: This study aims to elucidate the seasonal variation of peptic ulcers and identify the role of environmental factors in the disease. Methods: Based on a recently identified etiology of peptic ulcers, two inverse operations in calculus, differentiation and integration, are iterated to analyze the existing data. First, the fluctuation curve in the seasonal variation is differentiated twice into the monthly incidences caused by multiple individual environmental factors, and the fluctuation curve due to each individual environmental factor is generated separately. Second, the monthly incidences caused by the individual environmental factors are integrated twice to reproduce the fluctuation curves in the seasonal variation of peptic ulcers. Results: The differentiations of the fluctuation curves in the season variation reveal a parallel relationship between the psychological impacts of each individual environmental factor and the monthly incidences of peptic ulcers. The integrations of the monthly incidences caused by 3 environmental factors reproduce the fluctuation curves in 3 representative seasonal patterns of peptic ulcers but make the parallel relationships invisible. Discussion: The parallel relationships revealed a causal role of environmental factors in peptic ulcers, whereas the reproduction of the fluctuation curves elucidated that multiple environmental factors cause the seasonal variation of peptic ulcers by Superposition Mechanism. The regional differences in environmental factors result in the diverse patterns, as well as the controversy questioning the seasonality of peptic ulcers. Significantly, the data analyses exemplify the application of a new concept, Superposition Mechanism, which might be an indispensable methodological complement to life science and medicine.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.2057.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Temperature; Rainfall; Concrete pavement; ARIMA; Climate change
Online: 1 November 2023 (03:12:46 CET)
Climate change is one of the most concerning global issues and has the potential to influence every aspect of human life. Like different components of society, it can impose significant adverse impacts on pavement infrastructure. Although several research efforts have focused on studying the effects of climate change on natural and built systems, its impact on pavement performance has not been studied extensively. Due to the weather effect the lifetime of pavement is getting lower on the other hand maintenance cost is getting higher and higher. The data has been collected from LTTP website and as a site The State of Texas has been considered. The primary objective of this project is to quantify the effect of temperature as well as precipitation changes on pavement response and performance prediction using the ARIMA model and develop a logistic regression model to analyze the forecast data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0271.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: sustainable developments goals; cultural heritage; eco-design; climate education; COPERNICUS CDS; climate change impact; regenerative design; renewable energy resources
Online: 3 August 2023 (05:21:39 CEST)
The A.C.Q.U.A. (Advisable Conscious Quality Use from Assisi) project, promoted by the Climate and Energy and Heritage Design courses of the Planet Life Design Master Program, addresses the theme of the recovery and regeneration of ancient wash-houses in the context of energy, environmental sustainability and innovation, a way of understanding cultural heritage in the wider sense of heritage community through the active participation of all the actors involved: universities, institutions, businesses, students and citizens. The proposal, tested in the municipalities of Assisi and Ruviano (ITALY), involves the creation of a "Community Wash House", a new way of carrying out the usual domestic act of washing clothes in the open air, next to the places where this rite was traditionally performed, in technologically innovative constructions that use renewable energy sources and encourage a reduction in household consumption of water and energy. This project is part of the training of professionals in the new inter-university course that combines knowledge of the tools of technical and scientific design with historical and cultural perspectives in a perspective of sustainable redevelopment of existing structures in the area and the use of alternative energy sources with low climate impact, calculated using the statistics of the Copernicus CDS.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0549.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Psychiatry And Mental Health Keywords: air pollution; PM2.5; depression; inflammation; ecological analysis; climate; gender
Online: 29 November 2022 (10:12:54 CET)
Several studies have identified a relationship between air pollution and depression, particularly in relation to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure. However, the strength of this association appears to be moderated by variables such as age, gender, genetic vulnerability, physical activity and climatic conditions, and has not been assessed at a cross-national level to date. The current study examines the association between the prevalence of depression in each country, based on the most recent Global Burden of Disease Study data, and the average national level of PM2.5 based on the World Health Organization’s database. The observed associations were adjusted for age, gender, level of physical activity, income, education, population density, climate, and type of depression. It was observed that there was a modest but significant positive correlation between PM2.5 level and the prevalence of depression even after adjusting for the above confounders. This association was more marked above a certain threshold and applied chiefly to major depressive episodes. These findings are of significant public health importance in terms of preventive strategies aimed at reducing the population-level burden of depression.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0264.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Waste Management And Disposal Keywords: snow; semi-arid climate; data assimilation; particle filter; SWE; MERRA-2
Online: 12 October 2018 (11:17:16 CEST)
The snow melt from the High Atlas is a critical water resource in Morocco. In spite of its importance, monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of key snow cover properties like the snow water equivalent remains challenging due to the lack of in situ measurements at high elevation. Since 2015, the Sentinel-2 mission provides high spatial resolution images with a 5 day revisit time, which offers new opportunities to characterize snow cover distribution in mountain regions. Here we present a new data assimilation scheme to estimate the state of the snowpack without in situ data. The model was forced using MERRA-2 data and a particle filter was developed to dynamically reduce the biases in temperature and precipitation using Sentinel-2 observations of the snow cover area. The assimilation scheme was implemented using SnowModel, a distributed energy-balance snowpack model and tested in a pilot catchment in the High Atlas. The study period covers 2015-2016 snow season which corresponds to the first operational year of Sentinel-2A, therefore the full revisit capacity was not yet achieved. Yet, we show that the data assimilation led to a better agreement with independent observations of the snow height at an automatic weather station and the snow cover extent from MODIS. The performance of the data assimilation scheme should benefit from the continuous improvements in MERRA-2 reanalyses and the full revisit capacity of Sentinel-2.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0035.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Climate change; Ecological dynamics; Mathematical programming; Optimization; Spatial analysis; Systematic Conservation Planning
Online: 2 December 2021 (11:59:43 CET)
Biodiversity conservation questions human practices towards biodiversity and, therefore, largely conflicts with ordinary societal aspirations. Decisions on the location of protected areas, one of the most convincing conservation tools, reflect such a competitive endeavor. Operations Research (OR) brings a set of analytical models and tools capable of resolving the conflicting interests between ecology and economy. Recent technological advances have boosted the size and variety of data available to planners, thus challenging conventional approaches bounded on optimized solutions. New models and methods are requested to use such a massive amount of data in integrative schemes addressing a large variety of concerns. Here, we provide an overview on the past, present and future challenges that characterize spatial conservation models supported by OR. By enlarging the spatial, temporal, taxonomic and societal horizons of biodiversity conservation planners navigate around multiple bio-socioeconomic equilibria and are able to decide on cost-effective strategies to improve biodiversity persistence.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2022.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Water Science And Technology Keywords: Gridded dataset; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); Drought regionalization; Kernel occurrence rate estimator; Trend analysis; Climate indices
Online: 28 September 2023 (13:30:24 CEST)
Droughts are among the major natural hazards that are spreading to many parts of the world with huge multi-dimensional impacts. For Continental Croatia an extensive analysis of drought phenomenon is presented based on meteorological E-OBS gridded dataset (0.25° x 0.25°), within the period of 1950 to 2022. The drought events were characterized by the Standardized Precipita-tion Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) applied to different time-scales (6 and 12 months) in order to describe the subannual and annual variability of drought. The spatiotemporal patterns of drought are obtained through principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering (KMC) applied to the SPEI field. An areal drought evolution analysis and the changes in the frequency of occur-rence of the periods under drought conditions were achieved by using a kernel occurrence rate es-timator (KORE). The Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test coupled with the Sen’s slope estimator test are applied to the SPEI series in order to quantify the drought trends throughout the country. According to drought events history and considering the different morphoclimatic characteristics of the study area the results showed that Croatia could be divided into three different and spatial-ly well-defined regions with specific temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts (Central North, Eastern and Southern regions). It is shown that there is a manifest increase in the percent-age of area affected by drought as well as in the yearly drought occurrences rates in both Central North and Eastern regions and an evident decrease in the Southern region for both 6 and 12 month SPEI time-scales. In the observation of the drought temporal characteristics, it was found that downward trends expressing increasing drought severities were strongly significant in North and Eastern regions while a few significant upward trends were seen in Southern region. From this study, it is possible to obtain a broader view of the historical behaviour of droughts in Croatia with results providing useful support for drought risk assessment and decision-making processes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1313.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Radio Occultation; COSMIC-2; water vapor profiles; climate; numerical weather prediction
Online: 18 August 2023 (09:25:44 CEST)
Recently, NOAA has included GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Radio Occultation (RO) data as one of the crucial long-term observables for weather and climate applications. To include more GNSS RO data in the numerical weather prediction system, the NOAA Commercial Weather Data Pilot program (CWDP) started to explore the commercial RO data available on the market. After two rounds of pilot studies, the CDWP decided to award the first Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract to GeoOptics and Spire Incs. in 2020. This study examines the quality of Spire data products for weather and climate applications. Spire RO data are collected from commercial CubeSats through careful comparison with the data from Formosa Satellite Mission 7–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2), ERA-5, and high-quality radiosonde data. The results demonstrated that although with lower Signal-Noise-Ratio (SNR) in general, the pattern of the lowest penetration height for Spire is similar to those for COSMIC-2. The Spire and COSMIC-2 penetrate heights are between 0.6 and 0.8 km altitude at the tropical oceans. Although using different GNSS RO receivers, the precision of Spire STRASP receivers is of the same quality as those of COSMIC-2 Global Positioning System - GPS, GALILEO, and GLObal NAvigation Satellite System – GLONASS (TGRS) receivers. The retrieval accuracy from Spire is very compatible with those from COSMIC-2. We validated Spire temperature and water vapor profiles by comparing them with collocated radiosonde data. Generally, over the height region between 8 km and 16.5 km, the Spire temperature profiles match those from RS41 RAOB very well with temperature biases < 0.02 K. Over the height range from 17.8 to 26.4 km, the temperature differences are ~-0.034 K with RS41 RAOB being warmer. We also estimated the error covariance matrix for Spire, COSMIC-2, and KOMPSAT-5. Results showed that the COSMIC-2 estimated error covariance values are slightly more significant over the oceans at the mid-latitudes (45oN-30oN and 30oS-45oS), which may also be owing to COSMIC-2 SNR being lower at those latitudinal zones.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1519.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Deep Learning; Implicit Neural Representation; Sea Surface Temperature; Super Resolution; Satellite Retrieval Climate Data; Temporal Information
Online: 24 October 2023 (13:26:54 CEST)
Accurate climate data at fine spatial resolution are essential for scientific research and the development and planning of crucial social systems, such as energy and agriculture. Among them, sea surface temperature plays a critical role as the associated El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered a significant signal of global interannual climate system. In this paper, we propose an implicit neural representation-based interpolation method with temporal information (T_INRI) to reconstruct climate data of high spatial resolution, with sea surface temperature as the research object. Traditional deep learning models for generating high-resolution climate data are only applicable to fixed resolution enhancement scales. In contrast, the proposed T_INRI method is not limited to the enhancement scale provided during the training process and its results indicate that it can enhance low-resolution input by arbitrary scale. Additionally, we discuss the impact of temporal information on the generation of high-resolution climate data, specifically, which month the low-resolution sea surface temperature data is from. Our experimental results indicate that T_INRI is advantageous over traditional interpolation methods under different enhancement scales, and the temporal information can improve T_INRI performance for a different calendar month. We also examined the potential capability of T_INRI in recovering missing grid value. These results demonstrate that the proposed T_INRI is a promising method for generating high-resolution climate data and has significant implications for climate research and related applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0809.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: NEX-GDDP-CMIP6; extreme precipitation; climate change; Huaihe River Basin
Online: 13 September 2023 (09:52:52 CEST)
This research analyses extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin in China, a densely populated region with a history of human settlements and agricultural activities. This study aims to explore the impact of extreme precipitation index changes and provide decision-making suggestions for flood early warning and agricultural development in the Huaihe River Basin. The study utilises the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate models dataset and the daily value dataset (V3.0) from China's national surface weather stations to investigate temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation indices from 1960 to 2014 and future projections. At the same time, this study adopted the RclimDex model, Taylor diagram and Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis research methods to analyse the data. The results reveal a slight increase in extreme precipitation indices from northwest to southeast within the basin, except for CDD, which shows a decreasing trend. Regarding spatial, the future increase of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin will show a spatial variation characteristic that decreases from northwest to southeast. These findings suggest that extreme precipitation events are intensifying in the region. Understanding these trends and their implications is vital for adaptation strategy planning and mitigating the risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0058.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: climate change; Ethiopia; climate finance, Climate-Resilient
Online: 5 March 2019 (11:36:43 CET)
Achieving and sustaining stability for economic growth remain the greatest and most immediate development challenge for Ethiopia. For natural resource-based economies especially maintaining stability and growth depends fundamentally upon climate change adaptation and mitigation. The close links between climate and Ethiopia’s economy are reflected by the strong relationship between GDP growth rate and rainfall variability. A study by the World Bank projects that unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year. Along with the challenges posed by climate change, a number of development opportunities are emerging in response to climate change which includes access to international climate finance. The international response to climate change in the form of external development finance plays a key role to support developing countries in their transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient and sustainable development pathway. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the flow and the overall contribution of climate finance to sustainable development in Ethiopia. Specifically, focused on outlining how climate finance is currently reconciled in the existing Ethiopian climate change governance and its contribution to sustainable development. In order to achieve these objectives, data were collected from different sources. The Rio Marker methodology applied to review climate financial flow over the 5 year period. The result reveals that, climate change is central to development agendas despite its recent emergence in the mainstream, with various initiatives under way to combat or reduce its impacts in Ethiopia. In addition, the amount of climate finance from the developed countries to Ethiopia shows some fluctuation for the past five years. In general, the overall flow of climate finance mostly targeted climate adaptation actions which spur and enable the transition towards climate-resilient growth and sustainable development.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0108.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: GCMs; PDF; Trend Test; IDW; QM; PCA; DTW; bias correction; Ethiopia; climate change
Online: 7 September 2022 (10:18:17 CEST)
Climate change is a phenomenon that makes the climate system of a given region to be more unpredictable and increases the risk of water-related problems. GCMs under the new CMIP6 framework holds several climate models with many improvements as compared to past similar efforts. The improvements are mainly in the number of scenarios formulated, setup, parametrization, and resolution. In this study, 10 downscaled climate models from CMIP6 are evaluated by applying statistical and data mining tools and are ranked based on their capability to describe the historical observed series. The result of the analysis showed that the outputs of the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model have a good overall ranking among those 10 models. The output of this top-ranked model is used to understand future climate over UASB after properly bias-corrected using the QM method. Results of the bias correction step show that average annual precipitation has shown an increment of 6.5\% in the middle (SSP2-4.5) and 10.3\% in the worst (SSP5-8.5) case scenarios for the mid-century (2040 - 2069). Similarly, for the end of the century (2070 - 2099) an increment of 4.7\% and 17.5\% was predicted for the two scenarios respectively. Whereas average annual maximum temperature series showed an increment of 1.5 $\degree C$ for middle and 2.6 $\degree C$ for the worst case in the mid-century. At the same time, an increment of 2.2 $\degree C$ and 3.5 $\degree C$ were predicted for the end of the century similarly for those scenarios. Furthermore, it was predicted that the average annual minimum temperature series will have an increment of 2.6 $\degree C$ and 3.1 $\degree C$ for mid-century and 3.1 $\degree C$ and 4.7 $\degree C$ for the end century for the two scenarios respectively. An increase in precipitation with increased land degradation problems in the sub-basin increases the risk of flood events in the future.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Marine boundary layer height; Numerical regulation method; Double-parameter model function method; COSMIC data; Climate characteristics
Online: 7 July 2020 (16:56:28 CEST)
The boundary layer height (BLH) distinguishes the interface between the lower and free atmosphere, which is a key variable in numerical simulation, aerosol, and environmental pollution studies. Thus, the goal of this work is to propose a novel method conjuncting with numerical regularization to analyze climate characteristics of the marine boundary layer height (MBLH) using 2007-2011 GPS-RO data from the COSMIC mission. While traditionally, the difference method has been used to achieve this aim, herein, we propose an innovative method, in which the bending angle profile gradient was calculated using the numerical regulation method where the regulation parameters are determined by the double-parameter model function method. Then, the MBLH was determined by employing the maximum gradient method to ascertain the height corresponding to the smallest gradient. The results show a correlation between currents and the MBLH—a relationship that has not been previously demonstrated. A low MBLH is associated with seasons and regions where cold ocean currents are prevailing; whereas a high MBLH is observed in the seasons and places where warm currents are prevailing. This correlation was validated by comparing the obtained results with different occultation data—i.e., atmprf and echprf—which also established that atmprf is more sensitive to convective cloud top capture. In seas with active convection, the armprf calculated bending angle is higher than that from echprf. Subsequently, the standard deviation was used to express the MBLH confidence level. The results show that the MBLH standard deviation is highest in low latitudes and lowest in the middle and high latitudes. Furthermore, we analyzed the interannual MBLH variation trend, which displayed a seasonal variation and spatial distribution corresponding with the current and subsolar point. Finally, we conducted a case study in the South China Sea, and identified a distinctive seasonal change and downward trend.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0082.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: Climate Change; Climate-Smart; Climate-Smart Agroforestry; Agriculture
Online: 2 March 2021 (11:47:29 CET)
This study assessed stakeholders’ perception on the prospects and challenges of practising Climate–Smart Agroforestry in the Asunafo North Municipal Assembly in the Ahafo Region in Ghana. Interviewer administered questionnaires were used to collect cross-sectional data from 250 cocoa, food and cash crop farmers drawn from four (4) communities using simple random sampling. And nine (9) in-depth interviews were also conducted to elicit key stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholders also held the view that Climate-Smart Agroforestry encourages the use of stress-tolerant crop varieties, increase income, improve soil productivity, diversify farm produce, urges the reduction of input supply and recommends the timely usage of the inputs, ensures better market system for farm produce, cost of production decreases during the practice of Agroforestry, agro-ecological functions and Climate-Smart Agroforestry can best help adapt to the threats of climate change in the agriculture sector. The challenges included insecure tree ownership right, fast-declining soil fertility and long maturity period of Agroforestry trees, land tenure issues, illegal tree logging (chainsaw operators) on farms, lack of practical understanding of the approach, inadequate knowledge and information and inadequate supportive facilities in the study area. The study recommends further studies on the existing forest policy and legislations and its implications on the practice and adoption of Climate-Smart Agroforestry in respond to climate change in the area.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0301.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: Salinity intrusion; climate change; rising sea level; electrical conductivity; Landsat 8 OLI; Tra Vinh Province; Mekong Delta
Online: 17 August 2018 (11:41:14 CEST)
Salinity intrusion is one of the most serious consequences of climate change coupled with rising sea level that significantly affects agricultural activities in many parts of the world. This phenomenon has increasingly become more serious and frequently occurred in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. As a result, Vietnam has been ranked among top five countries where have been devastatingly impacted by climate change, in particular, its Tra Vinh Province characterized by coastal plain and alluvial deposit. In addition, this area is of the tropical monsoon zone of long rainy season with source of salt brought from the sea by the tides and sea level rise. Regions that are contaminated by salt are located in lowland and often suffer from floods linking to tidal effects with salty water from river systems and channels. Soil salinity evaluation is critical for coastal protection, restoration, and agricultural planning since it can be considered as an agricultural indicator to evaluate quality of soil. Here, we attempt to estimate the soil salinity in Tra Vinh Province, in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Landsat 8 OLI images are utilized to derive indices for soil salinity evaluation including single bands, Vegetation Soil Salinity Index (VSSI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Salinity Index (NDSI). Subsequently, satistical analysis between soil salinity, electrical conductivity (EC, dS/m), and environmental indices derived from Landsat 8 OLI image is performed. Results indicate that spectral value of Near Infrared (NIR) band and VSSI are highly correlated with EC (R2 = 0.7779 and R2 = 0.6957, respectively) in comparison with the other indices. Comparative results show that soil salinity derived from Landsat 8 is consistent with in situ data. Findings of this study demonstrate that Landsat 8 OLI images reveal a high potential for spatiotemporally monitoring the magnitude of soil salinity at the top soil layer. Outcomes of this study are useful for agricultural activities, planners, and farmers by providing the base map of soil salinity contamination for better selection of accomodating crop types to reduce economical lost in the context of climate change. Our proposed method that estimates soil salinity using satellite-derived variables can be applied in the other regions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1846.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: remote sensing; spatial modeling; climate change; pendjari; W Biosphere Reserve; vegetation
Online: 30 October 2023 (09:03:36 CET)
Today, satellite imagery has made a major contribution to the reconstruction and spatial prediction of sensitive or complex areas such as Pendjari and W Transboundary Reserves which constitute biodiversity reservoirs and habitats for wildlife conservation. Despite the protection to which they are subject, they remain dependent on climatic hazards that can influence their stability. This study has applied remote sensing techniques, combined with climate records from the last thirty years, to analyze the past dynamics of land use and climate changes, to predict the future states of the vegetation cover of the two national parks in Benin, as well as their periphery. The methodology used remote sensing and GIS techniques that allowed the supervised classification of Landsat images of 1985, 2000 and 2015. Climatic data were combined in R software to identify the break periods for climatic parameters. Finally, the predictive vegetation cover for the year 2030 was made by combining vegetation and climate in the "Land Change Modeler" extension. Ten land use and land cover classes were obtained. These are the agglomerations, mosaics of fields and fallows, water bodies, dense forests, gallery forests, clear forests and wooded savannahs, swamp forests and shrubby wooded savannahs, saxicolous savannahs and bare ground. The natural vegetation decreased from 90.85% in 1985 to 83.54% in 2000 then to 79.56% in 2015, a decline of 11.39% over a 30-year period. The analysis of the climatic curves revealed the presence of break, meaning drought frequency. The predictive modeling revealed that land use units projected to 2030 are consistent with past trends, but with the continued expansion of fields and fallows (2%) at the expense of vegetation cover. This study will motivate many others in the field.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0237.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: Colombia; Colombian Caribbean; marine climate; Mallorquín Lagoon; Puerto Colombia; Wave Watch III; wave; wind
Online: 17 February 2020 (03:32:48 CET)
This work presents an application called APPMAR 1.0 based on Python ® environment, built to perform the downloading, treatment and analysis of meteorological and marine information. This application is composed of two main modules: the first module allows the downloading of information from the database (NOAA - WW3); the second module uses the principles of statistical mathematics for the treatment of waves and wind. The importance of this simple application is based on the free and agile access to meteorological and marine information for a coastal project. The determination of representative conditions of sea states ultimately will govern the process of design of coastal and oceanic infrastructure. The analysis of historical time series of local waves and winds allows the evaluation of average regimes or operational design, the ultimate limit states or extreme design, and the storms or design by persistence. In spite that the former analysis is a common task for coastal engineers, the codes generated are seldom shared for public use. In summary, for operational purposes is useful to have a freeware that can assist in the data processing for decision making and forcing of the mathematical models that are part of the common practice of coastal, oceanic and offshore engineering. This application has been tested in the Caribbean area of Colombia where meteorological and marine information are scarce.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0163.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), temperate sub-continental climate, Lombardy, temperature, solar radiation
Online: 6 August 2020 (11:39:41 CEST)
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the defining global health and socioeconomic crisis of our time and represents the greatest challenge faced by the world since the end of the Second World War. The academic literature indicates that climatic features, specifically the temperature and absolute humidity, are very important factors affecting infectious pulmonary disease epidemics (e.g., SARS, MERS); however, the influence of climatic parameters on COVID-19 remains extremely controversial. The goal of this study is to quantify the existing relationship between several daily climate parameters (temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, solar radiation, wind direction and intensity, and evaporation), local morphological parameters, and new daily positive swabs for COVID-19, which represents the only parameter that can be statistically used to quantify the pandemic. The daily deaths parameter was not considered because it is not reliable due to frequent administrative errors. Daily data on meteorological conditions and new cases of COVID-19 were collected for the Lombardy area from March 1, 2020, to April 20, 2020. This region in Italy exhibited the largest number of official deaths in the world per million inhabitants, with a value of approximately 1700 per million on june 30, 2020. Moreover, the apparent lethality was approximately 17% in this area, mainly due to the considerable housing density and the extensive presence of industrial and craft areas. The Mann-Kendall test and multivariate statistical analysis showed that none of the considered climatic variables exhibited statistically significant relationships with the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19, at least in the spring months in temperate subcontinental climate areas, with the exception of solar radiation, which was directly related and showed an otherwise low explained variability of approximately 20%. Furthermore, the average temperatures of two highly representative meteorological stations of Molise and Lucania, the most weakly affected by the pandemic. The temperatures at these stations were approximately 1.5°C lower than that in the cities in Lombardy of Bergamo and Brescia, again confirming that a significant relationship between the increase in temperature and decrease in virology from COVID-19 was not evident, at least in the Italian peninsula.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0093.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: WRF; Modelling; Climate; Climate Extremes; LIDAR
Online: 6 September 2021 (12:57:23 CEST)
Storm Ophelia made landfall over Ireland as an extra-tropical storm on the morning of the 16th of October 2017. The storm caused major power outages, lifted roofs, caused coastal flooding in Ireland, and resulted in the loss of three lives. A model’s capability to forecast extreme weather events such as Storm Ophelia is of utmost importance and now with a changing climate, it becomes more important to improve and enhance model forecasting capability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model V3.9 has been configured for the Irish domain and this study presents a preliminary evaluation of the Model during Storm Ophelia. Simulated wind speed and direction were compared with hourly remote sensing (lidar) and in-situ (wind speed and wind direction at 10m) observations at the coastal site of Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station on the West coast of Ireland (53.33◦ N, 9.90 49 ◦ W). The model simulation has generally small biases in the simulated wind speed and wind direction during this case study. The model also realistically simulated the magnitude and geographical distribution of the wind speed and wind direction observed during Ophelia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0180.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate; climate change; water; hydrology; climatology.
Online: 3 March 2021 (10:12:40 CET)
We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate has been established during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times, after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acted. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of stochastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic variability. Given this variability, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleonasm as climate, like weather, has been ever changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing the true roles and causality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate and not the opposite.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0058.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate risk; climate change; public perception
Online: 6 August 2016 (04:59:47 CEST)
Even though Greece is considered a vulnerable region in terms of climate hazards, public perception and attitude do not always identify climate change as an important environmental area of concern, especially when compared to socio-economic issues. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this paper analyses trends that exist, peoples’ opinion and awareness with regards to climate risk and how willing they are to change current lifestyle, to pay or to act to minimize or to prevent the risk. Conventional wisdom of this paper is to highlight factors that influence individual perception and point out drivers of behavior change that can support efficiently future adaptation plans.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0056.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: Novaya Zemlya; Altimetry; Gravity; Russian High Arctic; Glaciers and Ice Caps; Remote Sensing; Climate Change;
Online: 3 October 2018 (14:37:48 CEST)
We examine the mass balance of the glaciers in the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, located in the Russian High Arctic using time series of time-variable gravity from the NASA/DLR Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, laser altimetry data from the NASA Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission, and radar altimetry data from the ESA CryoSat-2 mission. We present a new algorithm for detecting changes in glacier elevation from these satellite altimetry data and evaluate its performance in the case Novaya Zemlya by comparing the results with GRACE. We find that the mass loss of Novaya Zemlya increased from 10±5 Gt/yr over 2003-2009 to 14±4 Gt/yr over 2010-2016, with a brief period of near mass balance between 2009 and 2011. The results are consistent across the gravimetric and altimetric methods. Furthermore, the analysis of elevation change from CryoSat-2 indicates that 60\% of the mass loss occurs at low elevation, where thinning rates are highest. We also find that marine-terminating glaciers in Novaya Zemlya are thinning significantly faster than land-terminating glaciers, which indicates an important role of ice dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. We posit that the glacier changes have been caused by changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures. We find that the increase in mass loss after 2010 is associated with a warming in air temperatures, which increased the surface melt rates. There is no enough information on the ocean temperature at the front of the glaciers to conclude on the role of the ocean, but we posit that the temperature of subsurface ocean waters must have increased during the observation period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.2031.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: climate change anxiety; climate change despair; climate change hope; climate change perception; pro-environment behavior; political orientation
Online: 31 October 2023 (09:09:13 CET)
The main objective of this paper is to assess pro-environmental behavior, climate change perception, anxiety, hope and despair in different political orientations. Specific aims included to validate all the instruments; to assess whether the factor structure of the scales were valid across political orientations; to evaluate their reliability; to assess differences concerning age, gender and political orientation; to know the variables that explain pro-environment behavior; and to evaluate the moderating role of climate change perception, despair and hope in the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFAs), multi-group CFAs (to measurement invariance), multiple linear regressions and moderations were performed. Results showed that pro-environment behavior and climate change hope achieved the four levels of invariance across different political orientations; climate change anxiety achieved the three first levels of invariance; climate change perception and climate change despair achieved configural invariance. Climate change anxiety personal experience, climate change perception total, reality and consequences present higher values in left political orientation that in right or center. Climate change anxiety variables contribute most to explaining pro-environmental behaviors. Hope, despair and climate change perception consequences moderate de relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environment behavior. These results open up new avenues of investigation, namely, to understand why high levels of anxiety lead to more pro-environment al behaviors.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0496.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; city resilience; sustainable development, urban planning, remote sensing, internet of things, water management, heat islands, digital transformation, data analytics
Online: 26 July 2021 (11:38:06 CEST)
Specific climate adaptation and resilience measures can be efficiently designed and implemented at the regional and local level. Climate and environmental databases are of critical importance to achieving sustainability goals (SDGs) and for the efficient planning and implementation of suitable mitigation measures: Available databases can serve municipalities as a vital starting points to determine requirements, prioritize resources and allocate investments under consideration of commonly tight budget restrictions. High-quality geo, climate and environmental data are now available – data from remote sensing, i.e. Copernicus services will be of crucial importance. Forward-looking approaches exist to using such data to derive forecasts for urban planning process optimization for municipal administrations. On municipal level, however, the existing data have so far only been used to a limited extent, since there are no practical tools for urban planning that can be used to merge and meaningfully combine remote sensing data with local data and to further process and apply in municipal planning processes. Therefore, our project CoKLIMAx aims at the development of new digital products, advanced urban services and procedures, such as the development of practice-oriented technical tools that acquire various remote sensing and in-situ data sets for validation and further processing.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0110.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Sustainable Science And Technology Keywords: Climate change; perception; Climate smart agriculture; Adoption
Online: 12 May 2023 (11:31:38 CEST)
Abstract: Climate change is one of the main barriers for agricultural production and productivity globally. Hence, understanding farmers’ adoption level of CSA practices and determinants is of highly important for policy decisions. Consequently, the study's purpose was to assess adoption level of multiple CSA practices and determinants of climate-smart agriculture practices in the study area. The study was conducted in Welmera Woreda, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. From the Woreda, three kebeles were identified, and 306 respondent farmers were selected. A cross-sectional household survey, focus group discussion, and key informant interviews were used. Multivariate probit model was used to examine adoption determinants of multiple climate-smart agriculture practices. According to the result, Conservation agriculture, integrated soil fertility management, and crop diversification are the most commonly practiced CSA techniques in the study area. Demographic factors result indicated that being male as compared with female farmers, has positive and significant effect on crop diversification and improved livestock feed and feeding practices. Age of farmers significantly and negatively affecting the probability of adoption of improved soil fertility management practices and crop diversification. However, it affects the adoption of agroforestry practices positively and significantly. Based on the result of economic factors, having relatively large farm land size significantly increases the adoption of conservation agriculture, improved soil fertility management, crop diversification, improved livestock feed and feeding practices, and postharvest technology practice. Better farm income increases the likelihood of uptake of improved livestock feed and feeding. Having a large number of livestock positively influences adoption of conservation agriculture and having access to credit services positively influences the implementation of agroforestry, crop diversification, and postharvest technology. In addition, institutional factors such as access to agricultural extension service and training found that significantly and positively influences the adoption of crop diversification; access to participation on farmers’ field day similarly significantly and positively influence the adoption of both conservation agriculture and improved soil fertility management practice. Awareness creation for farmers and experts about climate change and including location specific CSA practices in to agricultural program is crucial.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0091.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: E-tourism; Climate; Climate Change; Tourism Industry
Online: 5 July 2020 (17:04:13 CEST)
In the recent century, the tourism industry and within it the tourism economy are one of the most important and fundamental sectors of engaged business. E-tourism can be used as a dynamic tool in up to date areas of informative information and tourism marketing will be considered as a suitable field for the tourism industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change and the amount of revenues from the tourism industry relying on a tool called e-tourism, and informing and providing services through this way so that Iran can achieve a greater share of export of a single-product oil economy combined with economic growth and sustainable development goals. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0029.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate change; HBV; climate projection; Ethiopian highland
Online: 5 October 2017 (13:50:02 CEST)
This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period (1961 to 1990). The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons 2020 - 2045, 2045 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6oC and 2.4oC, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, though trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201707.0008.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate policy; Nepal; NAPA; LAPA; climate experts
Online: 5 July 2017 (04:51:31 CEST)
The government of Nepal (GoN) has developed and implemented climate policies, plans and frameworks such as NAPA, National Climate Change Policy, LAPA and currently in the process of developing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). These policies and plans are in different states of its implementation with diverse opinions and perceptions of the stakeholders. The paper has explored these opinions and experiences of climate experts in Nepal on state of climate policies, inter-linkages, roles and responsibilities of ministries/departments, important factors and subjective indicators for effective implementation of the policies. Altogether 30 experts responded the questionnaire sent via the email, LinkedIn and Skype Interview in the 1st phase of Delphi research technique. The experiences of these experts range from 2-30 years representing government, non-government sectors, media and independent experts. As per most of the experts interviewed, the policies and plans are progressing in strategic direction with national and local priorities. The LAPA is the pioneer framework to address the local climatic issues, originated in Nepal. However, lack of clarity on roles/responsibilities and coordination among the ministries/departments; clear mechanisms for implementation of these policies; lack of sensitization, decentralization and delegation of finance and technologies; capacity of the stakeholders are the major challenges identified.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Bibliometric Analysis; Scientometrics; Human Influence on Climate; Natural Control of Climate; Climatic and Non-climatic Effects on Living Organisms; Improving Climate Monitoring; Climate Variability; Climate Models; CO2
Online: 3 May 2021 (17:01:28 CEST)
This article presents and discusses analytical data on the scientific publication record from 1910 to 2020 on two topics: "climate" and "climate change/global warming/climate emergency". The goal is to visualize how the publication record on these two topics has evolved over time, from different classification perspectives (year, country, source and organization). Three hypotheses are tested using data collected from Web of Science and various graphical representations of the data. It is found that research output related to the Earth’s contemporary changing climate overtook that of general climate research in 2011, and the publication ratio has been expanding in the last decade. There are significant differences in the publication countries and sources between the two topics, and conversely less significant differences in terms of organizations publishing these works. Differentiation factors that affect the level of research output and engagement on the climate challenge include: island versus landlocked nations, specialized versus general scientific journals, academic versus institutional organizations. The future of the publication records is discussed, such as the emergence of new terms to refer to the climate challenge, such as “climate emergency”.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0645.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Law Keywords: climate change; Paris Agreement; human rights; IPCC; climate policy; Climate Litigation; precautionary principle
Online: 8 June 2023 (12:21:26 CEST)
The German Constitutional Court’s climate verdict provides a re-interpretation of liberal- democratic core concepts and is highly relevant for liberal constitutional law in general – including EU and international law. The verdict accepts human rights as intertemporal and globally applicable; it applies the precautionary principle to these rights and frees them from the misleading causality debate. However, the court fails to address the most important violations of human rights, and it categorised climate policy as a greater threat to freedom than climate change. And the court does not make it clear that the Paris 1.5-degree limit implies a radically smaller carbon budget. Furthermore, little attention has so far been paid to the fact that the ruling implies an obligation for more EU climate protection, especially since most emissions are regulated supranationally. To be effective, the EU emissions trading system demands a reform, which should go well beyond the existing EU proposals to enable societal transformation to sustainability.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1257.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Animal Science, Veterinary Science And Zoology Keywords: Climate Change; Net Zero Emissions; Dairy Farming; Big Data; Artificial Intelligence (AI); Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Sustainable Agriculture; Technological Innovation; Policy Framework; Environmental Sustainability
Online: 20 November 2023 (16:16:51 CET)
This paper provides an in-depth exploration of the role of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in advancing dairy farming towards net zero emissions, a critical goal in the face of the global climate crisis. The study emphasizes how these technologies significantly enhance the management of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and optimize resource use, thereby contributing to environmental sustainability in agriculture. A key aspect of this transition is the alignment with international climate commitments, such as the Paris Agreement, which are instrumental in steering global efforts toward emission reduction and mitigating climate change. The integration of Big Data and AI in dairy farming emerges as a powerful tool to reduce the sector's environmental impact while sustaining economic growth. The paper delves into the specific applications of these technologies in emission management, including predictive analytics for feed optimization, manure management, and energy efficiency enhancements. It also addresses the broader implications of technological integration in dairy farming, considering aspects like benchmarking standards, data privacy, and the role of policy in fostering sustainable practices. The study underscores the challenges inherent in adopting these advanced technologies, including the need for improved farmer training, data quality, and compatibility with existing systems. It also advocates for enhanced policy frameworks that support sustainable practices, encourage technological adoption, and balance economic viability with environmental responsibility. This comprehensive analysis offers valuable insights into harnessing digital technologies for climate change mitigation and delineates a path for the dairy industry towards achieving net zero emissions, thereby contributing significantly to global environmental sustainability efforts.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2067.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: Climate communication; storytelling; public engagement; climate action; sustainability
Online: 30 September 2023 (10:19:00 CEST)
For achieving climate targets, public engagement is key. Climate communication can play an important role here. Telling regional stories of successful climate action seems a promising form of climate communication: It may convey a feeling of ‘So this is what climate action looks like – and it is people like you and me who are starting to take action.’ This transformative research project (1) formulates hypotheses on what could make such local climate stories effective, (2) then identifies, produces and disseminates stories in the region of Konstanz, Germany, following a rapid prototyping approach, and (3) analyzes the effect of the stories by using focus groups. So far, two prototyping series of filmic story production have been completed in 2022/2023 and some initial insights were derived: Potential protagonists seem willing to tell their stories, and the stories have a potential to inspire people. Technical film quality is relevant. The stories must be selected and told carefully (who is portrayed, which actions are interpreted as success, through which channels are the stories shared), in order to create resonance with different target groups. Next steps are continuation of film production prototyping, a broader sharing of stories, and thorough impact research by focus groups.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0881.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: Climate change; livestock farmers; rural livelihoods; climate education.
Online: 12 May 2023 (04:33:58 CEST)
Climate change mainly affects production and consumption systems, such as: food, livelihoods, production (e.g., reduced milk production), water, and land use. The role of local knowledge has been recognized as important for decision-making under changing circumstances. This study was conducted in the northern part of the Ecuadorian Andes using a sample of 170 dairy-cattle-producing households. The objectives were: i) to characterize the rural livelihoods of dairy cattle farmers, ii) to evaluate access to climate information and perceptions of climate change, and iii) to determine the relationship between livelihoods and perceptions of climate change. Significant differences were identified between the groups evaluated in relation to the dairy farmers’ livelihoods. In addition, 85.29% of the respondents mentioned that climate information is important, but 67.83% do not trust the sources of information. It was found that there is a significant relationship between the level of education and age with the variables of climate change perceptions. This combined knowledge allows people to promote agri-environmental and educational policies to achieve climate literacy at a rural level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0228.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: open source; climate indices; emissions scenarios; climate projections
Online: 12 January 2023 (13:49:09 CET)
The paper presents the open source tool climdex-kit which includes utilities to compute, analyze and visualize climate indices based on the input data, target domain and temporal extent defined by the user. It is intended to support researchers as well as practitioners and decision makers to derive, handle and interpret meaningful information for climate change studies and sectoral applications. It currently includes the computation of 30 indices based on temperature and precipitation, describing both mean and extreme climate conditions, and it is designed to work with climate model projections. The tool is written in Python and integrates utilities from the well-established Climate Data Operators (CDO) and NetCDF Operators (NCO) libraries. The specific utilities for selecting, aggregating and visualizing data are thought to help users to produce tailored results improving understanding and communication of future climate change. In order to show the functionalities of the package as well as its potential integration in regional climate services, climdex-kit was applied to an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections up to 2100 for the region Trentino – South Tyrol (north-eastern Italian Alps). The projections for a selection of indices accounting for extreme temperature and precipitation conditions were derived and different visualization choices discussed. The package climdex-kit is developed in a way that allows users to implement additional routines for calculating other indices as well as for easily adapting the routines to handle with different data types and spatio-temporal targets defined by the specific application. Effective climate services can in fact be developed only if flexible tools and customizable climate information are integrated with a clear understanding of data features and limitations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0021.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: children; climate change; climate literacy; education; sustainable development
Online: 1 November 2022 (06:59:44 CET)
Despite the impact that climate change is having on our planet and considering its consequences for future generations, much of the academic literature focuses on adolescent and adult percep-tions, giving little relevance to children's perceptions. Children's voices have the potential to in-fluence public opinion, which may in turn determine the direction of a new policy on the cli-mate crisis. In this context, it is urgent that we understand how children perceive this problem. This quantitative study was based on the application of 245 questionnaires to children aged be-tween 9 and 13 years old from five schools in north-eastern Portugal, more specifically in the region of Trás-os-Montes. To collect the data, we used a questionnaire with 26 questions, being 24 of closed response, Likert type, one of them open response, and one multiple choices. The da-ta were statistically treated using SPSS software. The results show that most of the children ex-press concern about the study's potential problem. However, they show some doubts and a lack of knowledge about some of the themes. We found differences between the two study cycles, with children in the 6th grade having a higher average in the understanding of the phenomenon, as well as the level of education of the parents being positively correlated with a more ecocen-tric posture. The female students also showed a slightly more ecological posture, i.e., an eco-friendlier posture. From the results obtained, we can open new paths for future research and contribute to the definition of policies and educational practices since the school has the respon-sibility to cooperate in the production of values, attitudes, and pro-environmental behaviours.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0383.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Marketing Keywords: tourism demand, climate change, climate volatility, GARCH model
Online: 21 August 2018 (15:48:14 CEST)
As climate is not only a valuable tourism resource but also a factor influencing travel experience, estimating climate change can provide implications to sustainable development of the tourism industry. This study develops Climate Volatility Index (CVI) using GARCH model and estimates the relationship between CVI and Japanese tourism demand for Korea using a tourism demand model, based on data from January 2000 to December 2013. Time lag is applied based on a decision making process regarding travel destinations. The result shows that an increase in volatility of climate change leads to a decrease in tourism demand.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0072.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate Variability; Food Security; Climate Change Adaptation; Malnutrition
Online: 8 February 2018 (15:59:16 CET)
Climate variability and change has been found to be one of the factors that affect economies leading to food insecurity in various parts of the world. Kenya is no exception. This study looks at how climate variability has contributed to food insecurity in Kisii County, Kenya. The objectives of this study is therefore to, (i) to examine the rainfall and temperature trends in Kisii County for a period of approximately 30 years, (ii) to examine the effect of climate variability on food production and (iii) to assess the perception of local farmers on weather and climate information, (iv) to evaluate the coping strategies adopted at to bridge the gap on food deficit at different household level and (v) to assess the nutritional status of children and the elderly. The study was conducted in two sub-counties of Kisii County; Marani and Bomachoge Chache. The data used was mainly rainfall and temperature data from meteorological stations and sample data gathered from selected groups. The study population comprised of children between 6 months and 59 months, household heads, elderly people and agricultural officers. Purposive sampling was used to select agricultural officers while multistage sampling was used to select respondents at household level. Data was collected by use of a pre-tested questionnaire. The MUAC tape was used to collect nutritional status of children while BMI data was obtained from elderly people. Mann Kendall statistic was used to determine whether the trend of rainfall and temperature observed is significant while Chi-square test was used to determine whether the coping strategies observed varied significantly at household level. From the analysis, rainfall has not shown any significant change in Kisii County while temperature trend has been significantly increasing over the years at 95% confidence level. This could explain the observed reduction in river levels. Analysis of crop production and price trends of major food crops in Kisii County showed a decreasing trend of food production leading to increase in price over the years. This meant that farmers could not produce enough to take them to the next harvesting season making farmers to adopt different coping strategies at household level which differed significantly according to Chi-Square test. Malnutrition status of both elderly people above 59 years and children between 6-59 months were similar with 23% of both children/elderly being severely malnourished/malnourished. This study has only looked at climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature. Other aspects such as depth of underground water, ph level of soil and the effects of land fragmentation also need to be looked at. This study is important to both farmers in choosing the right crop to plant, and policy makers and planners in formulating the best mitigation and intervention strategies for Kisii County food insecurity problem. This will further contribute to national efforts towards achievement of vision 2030.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; cryosphere; Arctic; permafrost; sea ice; tipping elements; climate impacts; climate policy; Paris agreement
Online: 15 December 2017 (12:51:43 CET)
Arctic feedbacks will accelerate climate change and could jeopardise mitigation efforts. The permafrost carbon feedback releases carbon to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost and the sea ice albedo feedback increases solar absorption in the Arctic Ocean. A constant positive albedo feedback and zero permafrost feedback have been used in nearly all climate policy studies to date, while observations and models show that the permafrost feedback is significant and that both feedbacks are nonlinear. Using novel dynamic emulators in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE, we investigate nonlinear interactions of the two feedbacks with the climate and economy under a range of climate scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement. The permafrost feedback interacts with the land and ocean carbon uptake processes, and the albedo feedback evolves through a sequence of nonlinear transitions associated with the loss of Arctic sea ice in different months of the year. The US’s withdrawal from the current national pledges could increase the total discounted economic impact of the two Arctic feedbacks until 2300 by $25 trillion, reaching nearly $120 trillion, while meeting the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets will reduce the impact by an order of magnitude.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0619.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate smart agriculture; crop productivity; climate change; Pfumvudza; Zimbabwe
Online: 29 January 2021 (12:40:06 CET)
Concerns of food and environmental security have increased enormously in recent years due to the vagaries of climate change and variability. Efforts to promote food security and environmental sustainability often reinforce each other and enable farmers to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change and other stresses. Some of these efforts are based on appropriate technologies and practices that restore natural ecosystems and improve the resilience of farming systems, thus enhancing food security. Climate smart agriculture (CSA) principles, for example, translate into a number of locally-devised and applied practices that work simultaneously through contextualised crop-soil-water-nutrient-pest-ecosystem management at a variety of scales. The purpose of this paper is to review concisely the current state-of-the-art literature and ascertain the potential of the Pfumvudza concept to enhance household food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation as it is promoted in Zimbabwe. The study relied heavily on data from print and electronic media. Datasets pertaining to carbon, nitrous oxide and methane storage in soils and crop yield under zero tillage and conventional tillage were compiled. Findings show that, compared to conventional farming, Pfumvudza has great potential to contribute towards household food security and reducing carbon emissions if implemented following the stipulated recommendations. These include among others, adequate land preparation and timely planting and acquiring inputs. However, nitrous oxide emissions tend to increase with reduced tillage and, the use of artificial fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides is environmentally unfriendly.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0245.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: physical variables; climate; highland lichens; effect of climate change
Online: 9 November 2018 (11:18:37 CET)
Lichens are traditionally divided into short “crustose”, intermediate “foliose” and tall “fruticose” types, a practice that hides a growth continuum. Substrate, temperature and water are thought to affect vertical growth, but such factors are difficult to measure, because, for example, the water actually available to lichens does not match rainfall patterns or even ground water levels. To reliably assess the effect of those factors, I recorded temperature, moisture, and substrate in and under individual terricolous lichen colonies in 60 fixed quadrats on April, August, October, and December of 2015 (Cerro de la Muerte, Costa Rica, 9°33′N; 83°45′W). The measurements were taken inside the colonies themselves (rather than on the general environment), covering an annual cycle of the relatively simple páramo habitat, where animals and vegetation have less impact than in lower ecosystems. The hypotheses were that lichens would grow taller on softer, warmer, and moister ground; on the Caribbean versant; and on the rainy season. Results matched the hypotheses, with one exception: lichens on soft ground were not taller than those on rock. Caribbean colonies were, on the average, 7 cm taller than those on the drier Pacific versant. Physiologically available water seems to be the main determinant of lichen vertical growth: more water means taller lichens and greater protection from climatic change for both the lichens and their microcommunities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1031.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Agroforestry; Climate-Smart Agriculture; Climate Change Adaptation; Australia; Pacific Island Countries; Climate Variables; Crop Production; Sustainability
Online: 17 October 2023 (09:37:21 CEST)
This academic paper explores the synergistic potential of Agroforestry systems and Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) in enhancing climate change adaptation strategies. Focusing on Australia and Pacific Island Countries, the study delves into the pivotal role of these approaches in mitigating the impacts of changing climate variables on agricultural production. By analysing important climate variables, their potential alterations, and their subsequent effects on crop production, the paper advocates for a holistic and forward-thinking approach to sustainable agriculture in the face of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0143.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: perceived-impact of climate change; climate change adaptation; ordered probit regression; determinants of climate change impact
Online: 13 March 2019 (09:31:37 CET)
This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0183.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate; lightning; atmosphere
Online: 10 December 2021 (13:23:29 CET)
Atmospheric lightning is an outcome of extreme complex physical processes occurring in the atmosphere. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is considered as a natural disaster. Understanding the importance of CG lightning and implication of the lightning phenomena, Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), world meteorological organization, in its report in the year 2016, introduced the lightning as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). The present report uses the Lightning Detection Sensor Network (LDSN) established by the National Remote Sensing Centre, Indian Space Research Organization over India to generate the Lightning ECV. A use case of these ECVs are also showcased for an event in Bihar, India, when 42 deaths were reported at locations with large number of CG occurrences.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0338.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate; weather; extreme
Online: 14 May 2021 (14:04:25 CEST)
The understanding of weather and climate extremes provides academics, decision makers, international development agencies, nongovernmental organizations and civil society the necessary information for monitoring and giving early warning to prevent or minimize the risks associated with weather related hazards. Different researches were carried out to provide vital information that will further enhance the assessment of vulnerability and its impacts. Lack of proper understanding of weather and climate extremes was realized to be responsible for the huge and devastating losses that could have being averted or minimized over the past decades. Different countries and institutions have put in place a number of ways to increase sensitization and awareness of weather extremes. This became necessary in order to reduce the losses associated with these extremes both on local and regional scales.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0139.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate, Datasets, Extremes.
Online: 7 May 2021 (10:40:02 CEST)
The impact of climate extremes on the society has been of great concern to environmental scientist and policy makers. The destructive consequence attributed to natural hazards associated with climates extremes has been estimated to billions of dollars across the globe. To carry out a robust and effective researches that help to minimize or prevent the loss, detailed datasets of the past, present and future are needed. This will help to give an accurate prediction and early warning which is necessary for the policy making.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0714.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Safety Research Keywords: Organizational climate; Safety climate; Multiple mediation; Construction personnel; Random sample
Online: 12 July 2023 (03:06:04 CEST)
Organizational climate is the ascribed psychological meanings and significance associated with the procedures, policies and practices that are recognized and rewarded in the workplace, and hence mediates the effects of environmental stimuli on individuals’ response. Safety climate is a specific organizational climate, i.e., organizational climate for safety. Previous research claimed that organizational climate provides foundation for safety climate, but without elaboration on the foundational mechanisms. This paper attempts to fill up this knowledge gap. As organizational climate is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, this paper chooses two dimensions, i.e., perceived organizational support (POS) and participative decision-making (PaDM), for illustrative purposes. Drawing on an interactive approach to forming climate perceptions, this paper introduces two interactive constructs, i.e., leader-member exchange (LMX) and team member exchange (TMX), and establishes a multiple mediation model depicting the foundational effect of organizational climate on safety climate. A random sample of Hong Kong based construction personnel is used to validate the model. The results show that both POS and PaDM are positively associated with perceived safety climate, both LMX and TMX fully mediate the effect of PaDM on safety climate, and only LMX partially mediates the effect of POS on safety climate. This study sheds light on the foundational effects of organizational climate on safety climate. POS can improve the quality of reciprocal exchange about safety matters between construction personnel and their supervisors, and hence raise construction personnel’s awareness of the priority of safety. PaDM can improve the quality of reciprocal exchange about safety matters vertically and horizontally, and hence have construction personnel aware the importance of safety. In practice, this paper suggests that project managers timely recognize and reward construction personnel’s contribution, genuinely cares about their well-being, and take their suggestions seriously in making decisions. In this way, the quality of both vertical and horizontal exchange about safety matters improves, and a sound and positive safety climate ensues.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0606.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Awash Basin; Climate change; climate extreme; CMIP6 models; Heat wave
Online: 8 June 2023 (08:45:18 CEST)
Globally, the intensity and irregularity of weather and climate extremes are increasing due to climate change. In Ethiopia, the occurrence of extreme events has been increasing, reporting severe impacts on environment which led to losses of lives and livelihood of societies. In this study, Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was used to analysis heat wave magnitude in the Middle Awash Basin of Ethiopia. Gauge data obtained from Ethiopian Meteorological Institution (EMI) for 1981-2022 period and the future projection was taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2 and SSP 5) scenarios. The findings clearly showed that the area aggregated annual temperature anomaly increasing each year, 2015 was one of the warmest year on record with an anomaly of +1.8 °C. Severe to extreme heat wave recorded particularly during the last 10 years. For the future projection, under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario, the annual average air temperature projected to be warmer, which increasing 1.7 ℃ to 1.8 ℃ during mid-century and 2.3 ℃ to 2.4 ℃ end of century. Meanwhile, for SSP 5-8.5 forcing, the projection indicated an increment of 2.2 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ under mid-century and 4.4 ℃ to 4.8 ℃ end of century. Concerning the severity of heat wave, extreme to very extreme heat wave projected under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario and supper extreme heat wave projected under SSP 5-8.5 forcing scenario, respectively. The increase in extreme events may have a negative impact on health, water availability and food security. Therefore, the result of this study are essential for making wise decisions and for developing suitable strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation that could minimize the risk of unusually extreme weather events.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: cultural heritage; preventative conservation; climate change; mitigation; adaptation; climate modelling
Online: 4 July 2018 (10:36:51 CEST)
There is a range of local weather and climate-related factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings, structures and sites over time. Some of these factors are influenced by changes in climate and some of these changes manifest themselves though a speeding up of the rate of degradation. It is the intention of this paper to review this situation with special reference to the Nordic Countries, where typical trends resulting from climate change are shorter winters and increased precipitation all year round. An attempt is made to initially draw up a classification of materials and structures relevant to cultural heritage that are affected, with a proposed numeric scale for the urgency to act. The intention is to provide information on where best to concentrate cultural heritage site preservation resources in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201706.0100.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: biodiversity; climate change; climate refugia; forest conservation policies; forest conversion
Online: 3 August 2017 (06:11:35 CEST)
A scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0211.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: Olea europaea L.; flowering data; partial least squares regression; Dynamic model; chill requirements; climate change; Mediterranean fruit tree; adapted cultivars.
Online: 29 November 2022 (01:05:59 CET)
Delineating chilling and forcing periods is one of the challenging topics in understanding how temperatures drive the timing of budburst and bloom in fruit tree species. Here, we investigated this question on olive trees, using flowering data collected over six years on 331 cultivars in the worldwide collection of Marrakech, Morocco. Using a Partial Least Squares approach on a long-term phenology (29 years) of ‘Picholine Marocaine’ cultivar, we showed that the relevance of delineating the chilling and forcing periods depends more on the variability of inter-annual temperatures than on the long-term datasets. In fact, chilling and forcing periods are similar between those delineated by using datasets of 29 years and those of only 6 years (2014–2019). We demonstrated that the variability of inter-annual temperatures is the main factor explaining this pattern. We then used the datasets of six years to assess the chill and heat requirements of 285 cultivars. We classified Mediterranean olive cultivars into four groups according to their chill requirements. Our results, using the Kriging interpolation method, indicated that flowering dates of most of these cultivars (92%) were governed by both chilling and forcing temperatures. Our investigations provided first insights to select adapted cultivars to global warming.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0297.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Horticulture Keywords: Climate change; stress factors; Vitis spp.; extreme climate events; sustainable agriculture
Online: 5 October 2023 (14:04:08 CEST)
Keywords: Climate change, stress factors, Vitis spp., extreme climate events, sustainable agriculture
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0537.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate change; urban climate resilience; regional differences; fiscal expenditure; urbanization rate
Online: 7 September 2023 (09:44:23 CEST)
Climate change represents a prevalent challenge confronted by humanity, and with cities being one of the regions most heavily impacted by such change, enhancing their climate resilience is paramount in adapting to and mitigating the associated risks and losses. This article evaluates the climate resilience of 270 major cities in China by creating an urban climate resilience indicator system centered on exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. The article analyses the spatial and temporal evolution trend of climate resilience in Chinese cities, as well as the source of regional differences using Kernel density analysis and the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition. The article then explores the influence of financial investments on urban climate resilience, considering the moderating effect of urbanization rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0476.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate Variability; Climate Change; Food Security; Zero Hunger; System GMM; PCSE
Online: 31 August 2022 (03:22:49 CEST)
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the projected increase in the human population stands at 2 billion people by 2050. At the same time, world food production is witnessing a declining trend over recent years, and 690 million (8.9%) of the world's population are already in severe starvation. Climate variability and climate change impacts on food security are very eminent today. For this reason, this study explored the real effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa by applying the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) estimators on data from 2001–2018 for 38 selected African countries. The findings reveal that higher amounts of precipitation positively influence food security along two dimensions (food availability and utilization). Hotter temperatures negatively impact food availability and utilization. However, it aids food accessibility in Africa. Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions improve food availability and are harmful to food accessibility and food utilization in Africa. Consequently, the effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa are undesirable, thereby putting the continent at risk of food insecurity over the long run. Given these findings, the study made appropriate recommendations for policy change to address the negative effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0166.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate information services; pilot projects; climate risk management, systematic literature review
Online: 18 February 2019 (16:53:45 CET)
Many pilot-based initiatives have been developed to promote awareness and use of climate information services among vulnerable smallholder farmers in Africa through million-dollar investments. However, despite their experimental nature, these pilot projects have been successful in raising participating farmers’ awareness and use of climate information services and they can inform transferrable good practices. Through a systematic literature review approach, this review sought to understand ways in which these past pilot projects have contributed to climate risk management in the context of smallholder farming and the factors that led to their success. Results showed that climate information services main contribution to climate risk management has been through facilitating farm level decision making. Factors that led to success of the pilots include: use of downscaled information; building institutional partnerships to add value to climate information; involving farmers through the co-designing and co-developing process; face-to-face way of communication; embedding pre-seasonal workshops in the activities of local institutions for sustainability; using diversity of communication channels to enhance reach among others. These factors can be borrowed as good practices to inform future efforts focused on increasing adoption of climate information services among a wider population beyond pilot project reach.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0542.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: Climate sensitivity; scale invariance; long-range persistence; climate variability; emergent constrains
Online: 23 October 2018 (15:59:17 CEST)
Earth's global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a bridge between the decadal- and centennial-scale fluctuations in the instrumental temperature record, and the millennial-scale equilibration following perturbations in the radiative balance. In particular, the emergent scale invariance makes it possible to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the observed relation between radiative forcing and global temperature in the instrumental era. This is verified in ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs), where the inferred values of ECS correlate strongly to estimates from idealized model runs. For the range of forcing data explored in this paper, the method gives best estimates of ECS between 2.3 and 3.4 K.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0008.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: migrations; climate change; Colombia
Online: 1 November 2022 (01:52:52 CET)
The international literature shows a polarised debate on the impacts of climate change on migration. Some studies find a positive linkage, whereas others find a negative one. It is, without a doubt, a complex process better considered case-specific. There is no available information on the relationship between climate change and migration in Colombia, despite past research exploring each of these subjects independently. This study intends explicitly to investigate this linkage gap. Consequently, this paper's essential contribution is that it builds a bridge between climate change scenarios and migratory science for the first time in Colombia. Despite their limitations, the theoretical and methodological framework suggested by IOM (2009b pp. 86, Section B, Chapter II) is demonstrated in this study to be very valid since it provides a methodology to predict where future flows will occur (based on past evidence). The methodological approaches of SLA and NELM explained in section A in the IV Chapter are also valuable for analysing and approaching this study's conclusions. The primary conclusions of this study indicate that the "Coffee Region," Valle, and Atlantic (or Caribbean Coast) provinces that mainly send emigrants to Spain and the US are the key internal regions responsible for most of the international migration from Colombians. The same areas are especially vulnerable to the impacts of upcoming climate change in the A1B scenario produced by the IDEAM (2010) for 2040 and 2100. Thus, future flows of migrants are expected from these regions (2040-2100). However, issues such as visa requirements or the costs associated with migration constitute international barriers to this flow. The sensitivity of these regions can also be associated with internal migration flows, more armed conflict, and forced displacement in a cyclical process. Theoretically, a resurgence of Colombia's armed conflict and displacement due to climate change can be expected. However, the need for empirical studies in Colombia to support this analysis is imperative and is the most crucial recommendation arising from this study.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0047.v1
Online: 2 August 2022 (08:04:43 CEST)
The paper will analyze the pressures and vulnerabilities of the consolidated city from two perspectives: technical and social. Some design and pragmatic experiences conducted by the author in his teaching and research experience first at the Department of Urbanism of TUDelft in the Netherlands and currently at the PDTA Department of La Sapienza University of Rome will be introduced and analyzed. In the first research activity, whose case study is Rotterdam, all urban vulnerabilities related to climate change will be analyzed while in the second one, conducted in Viterbo, the vulnerability related to the hull of social inclusion, poor accessibility and psycho-social stress that plague our established cities will be treated. The two areas of study, different in size and spatial governance tools, are comparable because they allow deciphering the city's risks through lines of intervention that could serve as best practices and serve the urban planning disciplinary update also allowing to define a reflection on morphology and fabrics and on the shape of the city itself. Both teaching and research activities in which the author is involved allow the topic of urban vulnerability to be addressed with a broad exploratory scope that, in the final stage, hypothesizes design intervention on the neighborhood scale, identified as the most appropriate to provide plausible climate and social adaptation and mitigation responses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0340.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: climate change; grapevine; phenophase
Online: 16 March 2021 (12:04:14 CET)
The impact of warming on the phenology of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in conditions of Central Europe was evaluated at the locality of Dolné Plachtince in the Slovakian wine region. In Welschriesling and Pinot Blanc model varieties there was observed onset of phenophases as defined in BBCH scale over 1985–2018 period. Based on the data obtained there was evaluated the influence of average and average maximum temperature and GDD on the onset of phenophases. The results observed indicate earlier budburst by 5–7 days, earlier beginning of flowering by 7–10 days, and earlier berry softening by 18 days, and harvest dates advanced by 8–10 days on average. In both varieties there was found the highest influence of the average monthly temperature in March on budburst, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature and the average maximum temperature in May on the beginning of flowering, and the highest, statistically significant influence of the average maximum temperature in June on grape veraison. The warming observed in moderate climate conditions of northern wine regions in Central Europe (Slovakia) has not caused yet the changes in the grapevine phenology stable enough to require serious adaptation measures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0559.v1
Online: 23 July 2020 (12:30:24 CEST)
We have modelled the energy consumption of prototype and real buildings under present and future climatic conditions with the EnergyPlus model to develop a better understanding of the relationship between changing climate conditions and energy demand. We have produced detailed meteorological information with 50 meters of spatial resolution through dynamical downscaling process combining regional, urban and computational fluid dynamics models which include the effects of the buildings on urban wind patterns. The city of Madrid has been chosen for our experiment. The impact on energy demand and their respective economic cost are calculated for year 2100 versus 2011 based on two IPCC climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (not reduction of emissions). Findings show that climate change will have a significant impact on the energy demand for buildings. Space heating demand will be increased by the RCP 4.5 and cooling demand will be increased for the RCP 8.5 in the analysed buildings.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1720.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: climate change; positive and negative affect; pro-environmental behavioural intentions; climate anxiety
Online: 28 November 2023 (08:15:55 CET)
The study aimed to investigate the effect of climate change exposure on affect and pro-environmental behavioural intentions in a randomised controlled trial. An online survey was completed by 100 adult participants and included measures of affect and pro-environmental behavioural intentions pre- and post-exposure. Participants were randomly allocated to a group that saw a climate change video (n=55) or a group that saw a non-climate change video (n=45). The findings showed were that participants in the climate change group showed a significant increase in negative affect and pro-environmental behavioural intention scores post-video exposure compared to the non-climate change video group. This suggests that climate change video exposure negatively influences affect but also potentially increases the intention to act pro-environmentally. These findings have the potential to support policies and societal change, however further investigation into the type of contents, actual behaviour change, and impacts on diverse populations (e.g., minority groups) is needed that influences pro-environmental behaviours is required. Furthermore, to achieve a greater impact, future research should be conducted measuring actual pro-environmental behaviour change, including with those from diverse populations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1311.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Primary Health Care Keywords: green podiatry; health; climate emergency; climate change; healthcare; greenhouse gases; sustainability; environment
Online: 20 September 2023 (04:48:03 CEST)
Introduction The climate crisis is essentially a public health crisis. Response is imperative to prevent economic and social crises associated with the growing burden of climate impacts on human health and the health care sector. Green Podiatry Pillars By adopting the three pillars of Exercise, Evidence, and Everyday changes, podiatrists can contribute to more sustainable health and health care. Discussion Educating our patients to use their feet for low carbon active transport, eliminating interventions not supported by evidence, and reducing fossil fuel driven supply chains and energy use, are three impactful measures that all podiatrists, and indeed, all health and medical personnel, need to adopt. The avoidable suffering, enormous and costly use of resources for diabetic foot disease, is a scourge that must realise its preventable potential. It is too late, too costly, too polluting, and too sad, to continue to direct health care and research efforts and budgets, to an expensive modifiable diabetes disease process, potentiated by poor food and physical inactivity. Affected patients require skilled support, to avert such chronic disease processes, often not of their making. Conclusions Healthcare contributes 5 to 8% of green house gases (GHG), and non-communicable diseases (NCD) are increasing, so healthcare must lead on primary health. As citizens and health professionals, we must advocate for better community health, and educate our patients. Future Directions All health and medical personnel need to consider planetary health and sustainable healthcare within their daily work. Healthcare must act to address climate change, and realise benefits for people and planet.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1886.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: India; Urban; Climate Vulnerability; Disaster resilience; Climate hazards; Vulnerability Assess-ment framework
Online: 26 May 2023 (07:59:12 CEST)
There has been an increase in the inefficiencies of urban infrastructure services in Indian cities as a result of rapid and unplanned urbanization (UNDP, 2017). Indian cities have grown multidimensional as a result of massive industrializa-tion and technological spread backed by globalization impacting the early 2000. It has transformed the city fabric and the associated challenges. Therefore, an Urban Climate Vulnerability Assessment (UCVA) is needed to identify, target and recognize climate vulnerable urban cities, sectors, or populations. The UCVA framework consists of seven broad thematic indicators — physical, hazard, social, demographic, financial provisioning, infrastructure and admin-istration vulnerabilities, and their sub indicators to represent the climate vul-nerability of Indian cities. This assessment is for seven Indian cities namely Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Srinagar, Shillong, and Ahmedabad which were selected based on their geographical location, population, ecosystem types and hazards/ hazard trends to understand and assess the respective vul-nerabilities. The Assessment is done through a comprehensive approach using a robust and predictive qualitative framework. It helps in determining respec-tive risks and in improving community resilience to the climate hazards by in-tegrated planning and improved preparedness. UCVA can support as a deci-sion support mechanism for devising suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies for building urban climate resilience.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0403.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Nature-based solutions; climate change adaptation; climate change vulnerability; social-ecological systems
Online: 20 September 2022 (12:35:06 CEST)
Nature-based solutions (NbS) - working with and enhancing nature to address societal challenges - are increasingly being featured in climate change adaptation policy and plans. While there is growing evidence that NbS can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts in general, there is a lack of understanding on the mechanisms through which this can be achieved, particularly in the Global South. To address this, we analyse 85 nature-based interventions in rural areas across the Global South, and factors mediating their effectiveness, based on a systematic map of peer-reviewed studies encompassing a wide diversity of ecosystems, climate impacts, and intervention types. We develop and apply an analytical framework of people’s social-ecological vulnerability to climate change, in terms of six pathways of vulnerability reduction: social and ecological exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most cases (95%) report a reduction in vulnerability, primarily by lowering ecosystem sensitivity to climate impacts (73% of interventions), followed by reducing social sensitivity (52%), reducing ecological exposure (36%), increasing social adaptive capacity (31%), increasing ecological adaptive capacity (19%) and/or reducing social exposure (14%). An analysis of mediating factors shows that social dimensions are equally important as technical factors in NbS to achieving equitable and effective outcomes. Attention to the distinct social and ecological pathways through which vulnerability is reduced helps to harness the multiple benefits of working with nature in a warming world.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0339.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Decision Sciences Keywords: decision-making; change; behavior; climate change; deforestation; social norms; lobbyist, climate denier
Online: 28 January 2020 (10:44:27 CET)
Leaders are failing to respond to the climate and environmental urgency the world is facing. A growing action gap, clearly visible during the recent CoP25, has been fueled by leaders' inability to respond efficiently to the mounting threats scientists—and increasingly society—are concerned about. Bridging this gap and tackling the growing polarization within society calls for leaders to accept the full complexity of the issues the world is facing. This will require them to question their understanding of these geopolitical affairs and embrace the dynamics at play, and avoid falling back on simplistic cognitive models. We propose a heuristic to convey the pathways available to decision-makers to make their way out of the current inaction impasse. By breaking free of this deadlock, a social transition will have the potential to take place, helping us to avoid crossing the climate system tipping points.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0195.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Colombian climate complexity; climate extremes; Tsallis' non-extensive statistical mechanics; universal categories
Online: 21 February 2019 (04:20:01 CET)
We evaluate the complexity of Colombian climate from extreme behavior of gauge temperature and precipitation, using the the novel Tsallis' non-extensive entropy principle based on physical information through the q-index. We find the spatial structure of non additive universal categories (q-index) and compare with some complex systems with the potential to have some degree of dynamical affinity. Our results evidence the great dynamical variability of regional climate expressed in the large range of values of $q$-index, and the high degree of non-extensitivity for both temperature and precipitation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0528.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: GCM; RCM; CMIP5; CORDEX; climate change; climate model selection; upper Indus basin
Online: 27 September 2018 (04:01:11 CEST)
This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201802.0109.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate change; energy system sizing; sustainable urban planning; urban climate; urban design.
Online: 22 February 2018 (13:34:10 CET)
Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0421.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Early warning; El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Climate services, weather, and climate information
Online: 8 October 2023 (07:28:20 CEST)
The brief paper utilises Zimbabwe as a case study to discuss the effects of El Nino in Southern Africa. It offers potential adaptation and mitigation measures for farmers to prepare for the forecasted El Nino-influenced rainy season 2023/24 and the future. To reduce climate and weather hazards connected with El Nino, the brief report suggests anticipatory action methods be applied in southern Africa, using Zimbabwe as a case study. To protect farmers' livelihoods and enhance drought readiness for the forthcoming agricultural seasons, the paper suggests a degree of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making that the agriculture industry should adhere to. It emphasised the significance of providing farmers with knowledge and advice regarding drought and heat stress, including cultivating crop varieties and livestock and sufficient fire safety precautions. The brief paper calls to advocate for anticipatory action to avert El Nino in Southern Africa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1453.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: carbon neutrality; climate policy; climate politics; fairness under the Kyoto Protocol; Keidanren; Japan
Online: 21 September 2023 (07:24:15 CEST)
This study contextualises the background of Japan’s “carbon neutrality and net-zero” (CNN) policy announced in October 2020, thereby identifying important changes in the country’s climate policy between 1990 and 2020. Using four research questions, four main findings were extracted from a narrative technique-based analysis of Japan’s policy documents related to CNN. The following are the findings: [i] the framing of climate change as a “climate crisis” by influential Japanese climate stakeholders was a key motivation for Japan to formally announce its CNN policy in October 2020, [ii] pressure from the international community and the political leadership of the Yoshihide Suga administration are essential factors that led the Japanese government to change its stance and announced this policy, [iii] Japan unintentionally delayed announcement of the policy until 2020 due to the concern among Japanese climate stakeholders about the problem of fairness in Kyoto Protocol’s emission reduction targets, and [iv] this delay was also due to Keidanren’s (or business sector) consistent opposition to the introduction of regulatory schemes. These results emerge for the first time in a study of Japan’s CNN politics, particularly in terms of the broader context of climate politics. Finally, we offer a possible explanation for Suga’s deliberate announcement of the CNN policy. This opens up space for future research to complement our study by providing important indicators on the trajectory of this important policy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1396.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: wooden houses; habitability and climate change; climate change adaptation; safe housing; sustainable housing
Online: 21 September 2023 (05:45:50 CEST)
The prefabricated houses supply in Chile was analyzed from web platforms, public market, social media, and Internal Revenue Service, using indicators according to regulatory compliance, complexity, and sustainability attributes, which are essential in advancing to industrialization, and climate change adaptability. The 80% is concentrated in construction, and manufacturing companies, 83% of them are legally registered,with the capacity of meeting technical requirements. To delve deeper into this, 54% has low level, 35% medium level, and 11% high level. The sustainability was measured in 5 levels: 2.7% (1), 37,5% (2), 58,6% (3), 1,1% (4) and 0% (5), which is the highest one. This attribute was determined as the weakest one. The proposed evaluation, based on indicators by attribute, is objective and relevant to consideration since there is still a lack of capacity to supply the housing deficit, and there is not attributes associated to security in habitability to address the climate change, and environment threats, with a lack of action by the state to promote this productive sector, therefore focusing more in provide products, than taking responsibility of the site, not advancing to become a real state agency, which could be improved if management, and regulation were incorporated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1458.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: extreme climate events; multi extreme event composite grade index (MXCI); climate change; China
Online: 20 June 2023 (15:19:27 CEST)
Based on the daily observation data of 2254 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2021 after homogenization and correction, the extreme value analysis method that combines relative threshold and absolute threshold was used to identify extreme climate events in the mainland of China, namely extreme high temperature, extreme low temperature, extreme drought, extreme precipitation and extreme typhoon events. The frequency and linear variation trends of individual extreme events in the past 60 years were investigated. On this basis, the multi extreme events composite risk grade index (MXCI) was constructed, which can objectively reflect the comprehensive characteristics of multi extreme climate events in different regions. The results show that the high value areas of MXCI were mainly located in Southeast China and Southwest China. The MXCI presented a decreasing trend in most of the western and southeastern regions of China, while an increasing trend from Southwest China to the south of Northeast China, due to the frequent occurrence of extreme high temperature, extreme drought and other extreme events in these regions.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate-smart forestry; forest resilience; adaptive forest management; climate change mitigation; SFM; bioeconomy
Online: 19 June 2023 (10:52:43 CEST)
This essay review explores the concept of climate-smart forestry as an approach to mitigating and adapting to climate change. It highlights the need for a holistic approach to forestry that considers regional differences and synergies between ecosystem services. The essay discusses various management strategies at different scales, including species selection, mixed species cultivation, and the promotion of the bioeconomy. It also examines the trade-offs and synergies between different forest uses and the effects of forest management on ecosystem services. Furthermore, the review addresses major abiotic and biotic damage risks to forests, such as wildfires, windstorms, and bark beetle attacks, and proposes risk management strategies. Lastly, the review delves into the management of peatland forests, discussing the role of drainage, the impact of ditch network maintenance, and the challenges of peat ash fertilization. Overall, the review provides valuable insights into climate-smart forestry and its potential to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0301.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: students’ awareness; climate change; climate information; mitigation activities; Democratic Re-public of Congo
Online: 16 November 2022 (08:58:25 CET)
Students are often portrayed as future leaders. Their participation in climate change mitigation would improve when they access climate information and gain a high level of climate change awareness. This study was initiated to assess the Congolese students’ awareness of climate change by focusing on their sources of information on climate change, knowledge about the causes and impacts of climate change and activities that can raise awareness on climate change. Using a convenience sampling technique, we collected data through individual interviews conducted among 1,278 students from 13 universities across the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The interview results showed that all students irrespective of their disciplines were concerned about climate change, a phenomenon strongly driven by human activities, such as deforestation (78%), urbanisation (30%), agriculture activities (30%) and transport services (26%). The students’ perceptions of climate change impacts included increase in temperature (82%), decrease in the number of rainy days (66%), proliferation of pests (60%) and increase in the number of malaria patients (39%). The primary sources of information that significantly affected students’ awareness of climate change included environment-related university courses and television broadcasts. The awareness-raising and mitigation actions related to climate change recommended by the students included educating people about good waste management (56%), planting trees (65%) and using the taxes paid by mining companies for the restoration of degraded ecosystems. The students believed that in DRC, all layers of the society (educational institutions, civil society organisations, community members and businesses) are important in building resilience to climate change. This study can guide teachers to focus their educational efforts on shaping pro-environmental behaviour in students.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0436.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Uncertainty; Climate risk assessment; Impact chain; Climate change; Risk; Tourism risk; Heat index
Online: 28 September 2022 (09:23:03 CEST)
The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0410.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: climate proofing; spatial planning; climate change adaptation; framework; cross-regional; integral; co-benefits
Online: 18 May 2021 (10:21:27 CEST)
Spatial planning holds a key role in preventing or mitigating the impacts of climate change on both cities and rural areas, taking a forward-thinking and holistic approach to urban and regional development. As such, spatial planning deals with challenges occurring at different scales and across sectors. The international literature points out the need for horizontal and vertical cooperation to tackle climate change impacts. While there is abundant knowledge regarding the challenges related to climate change at different spatial levels, procedural integration into planning frameworks and practice is currently under-researched. This paper presents a novel theoretical framework that integrates various steps towards a holistic, integrative and adaptive climate proofing process. An iterative process was used for conceptual development, based on literature review followed by external feedback meetings and two workshops with the core team of planning experts responsible for exchange across federal states. By specifically addressing the challenges relating to cross-regional and cross-sectoral planning, this novel framework attempts to (i) facilitate a hierarchy of measures, (ii) maximise co-benefits for various adaptation purposes and climate change mitigation and (iii) foster the long-term institutionalisation of integrative processes across sectors, planning areas and policy levels.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0337.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Forestry Keywords: Southeastern rim of Tibetan plateau; dendrochronology; climate response; climate warming; subalpine conifer forests
Online: 18 August 2018 (12:08:03 CEST)
Climate change has a inevitable impacts on tree radial growth, particularly at mountain timeberlines. To understand climate effects on conifer radial growth in the central Hengduan Mountains and potential impacts of future climate change on conifer forest, we studied growth responses to climate variables in Abies georgei, the major tree species of conifer forest in Hengduan Mountains. We collected tree ring samples from four sites near the timberlines and analyzed the relationship between principle components (PC#1) of four chronologies and climatic variables by using response function analysis (RFA), redundancy analysis (RDA) and moving interval analysis (MIA). A. georgei growth was affected by both temperature (positive effects) and precipitation (negative effects). Specifically, the radial growth of A. georgei was significantly and positively correlated with current July and previous November temperature (detected by both RFA and RDA), while precipitation of current June and September inhibited tree growth (detected by RDA). More rapid warming in recent 20 years (1990–2010) clearly enhanced growth responses to July and November temperature, whereas the relationship was weaken for June and September precipitation according to MIA. Under the climate trend of the study area, if the increasing temperature could offset the negative effects of excessive precipitation, A. georgei radial growth would likely benefit from warming, the dynamics of conifer forest should also consider indirect impacts of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0567.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; discharges; ecosystems; rivers
Online: 10 October 2023 (08:34:40 CEST)
Puerto Rico is a neotropical island located in the Caribbean. Like other neotropical regions, Puerto Rico streams discharges can vary with the seasons, atmospheric events, and human activities. The Lapa River is part of the Puerto Rico Heritage Rivers Program. This program identifies and manages the protection of hydrographic systems that maintain their natural conditions. The necessity of increasing the knowledge of the natural processes of the Lapa River and providing valuable information for the development of a future management plan for the ecosystem, the following objectives were established in this research: (1) to describe the temporal variations in water discharges in the Lapa River and (2) to describe the impact of atmospheric events on the water discharges at the Lapa River. This study concluded that the highest annual discharge averages recorded from 1989 to 2021 in the Lapa River occurred in 2011 and 2017. 2011, the annual mean discharge was 31.20 (ft3/s); in 2017, the average was 40.44 (ft3/s). In terms of atmospheric events, this study concludes that, during the evaluated period, the highest discharge event occurred after the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria, with an average discharge of 164.40 ft3/s in October and 182.60 ft3/s in September. This event set a precedent in the river Lapa’s discharges, impacting the river basin’s flora, fauna, and morphology from its headwaters downstream.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0332.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Parasitology Keywords: climate change; host-parasite; bioindicators
Online: 6 September 2023 (04:56:59 CEST)
Climate changes caused by anthropogenic actions can directly and indirectly affect living beings, including parasites and their hosts. Changes such as water temperature, pH, distribution of nutrients in the aquatic environment are some examples that can interfere with the fish community, whether in open water or in production systems. In this review, we will show how climate change can affect the adaptation of hosts and parasites in the aquatic environment and how these parasites can be used for environmental monitoring.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0060.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Environmental Health; Education; Climate Change
Online: 1 June 2023 (08:04:49 CEST)
Introduction. Environmental Health in a Global World at New York University was re-designed as a class participatory effort, challenging undergraduate students to understand environmental hazards and the resultant adverse health outcomes by embracing the inherent complexity of environmental risks and proposing solutions. Methods. Following introductory lectures, students are placed into teams and assigned a specific perspective, or avatar, which includes learning to see the challenge from the perspective of a technical expert such as a biologist, an engineer, or an anthropologist. The teams then design specific systems maps to visualize the complex interactions that lead to adverse health outcomes after a given environmental exposure. The maps highlight potential leverage points, where relatively minor interventions can provide a disproportionate benefit in health outcomes. The teams then explore potential interventions and identify the potential unintended consequences of those actions, develop and advocate for innovative new strategies to mitigate risk and improve outcomes. Results and Discussion. Over the past 5 years we have taught this methodology to over 680 students with strong, student-oriented results. The teams created and presented more than 100 strategies, addressing a diverse set of environmental challenges that include water contamination, gun violence, air pollution, environmental justice, health security, and climate change. Developing the strategies helped the students understand environmental threats in a more holistic way, provided them with some agency in finding solutions, and offered an opportunity for them to improve their presentation skills. The responses in course evaluations have been enthusiastic, with many students reporting a deep impact on their college experience.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.1246.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Climate change; Butterfly; Thimphu; Bhutan
Online: 30 April 2023 (03:18:31 CEST)
The study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on butterfly populations Thimphu district of Bhutan. Butterflies are indicators of environmental factors and can act as an early warning of impending changes in local flora and fauna. The study will involve citizen science with participants using iNaturalist and Seek applications to capture butterfly data in various habitat areas in the Thimphu district. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistics Kit for Social Sciences (SPSS), Nvivo, and Geographical Information System (GIS) programs. The results of the research will be disseminated through awareness campaigns to increase public understanding of the value of butterfly protection in the conservation of healthy environments. The study's findings will be used to develop conservation initiatives to maintain biodiversity and assess the impacts of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0260.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Bluecat; climate models; stochastics; uncertainty.
Online: 27 April 2022 (10:46:45 CEST)
Bluecat is a recently proposed methodology to upgrade a deterministic model (D-model) into stochastic (S-model), based on the hypothesis that the information contained in a time series of observations and the concurrent predictions by the D-model is sufficient to support this upgrade. Prominent characteristics of the methodology are its simplicity and transparency, which allow easy use in practical applications, without sophisticated computational means. Here we utilize the Bluecat methodology and expand it in order to be combined with climatic model outputs, which often require extrapolation out of the range of values covered by observations. We apply the expanded methodology to the precipitation and temperature processes in a large area, namely the entire territory of Italy. The results showcase the appropriateness of the method for hydroclimatic studies, as regards the assessment of the performance of the climatic projections, as well as their stochastic conversion with simultaneous bias correction and uncertainty quantification.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0394.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biology And Biotechnology Keywords: Turmeric; Climate change; Improved nutrition
Online: 22 November 2021 (13:27:03 CET)
Turmeric is highly tolerant to several climatic changes and can grow under high temperatures and moderate drought conditions. This herb is very much dependant on optimum rainfall, optimum heat with less chilling or freezing conditions. These conditions if are more than normal would tend to reduce the yields of the crops and also effect the productivity. To reduce such drastic yield losses certain conventional plant breeding methods were employed but were very less effective compared to plant biotechnology. To reduce these loses by stresses, extensive and effective molecular biology methods were employed which identifies the genes that are stress responsive along with certain methods like gene transfer, genetic engineering was also known to be effective. All these methods are quite helpful in mitigating the yield losses and promoting healthy growth in the plants. The maintenance of rhizome size, curcumin content, essential oils etc. is very much necessary for the turmeric crop because of its role, especially in the medical field. Therefore, the yield losses are reduced to a maximum extent so that development of smart turmeric is easy and crop designing is possible only with the advanced techniques involved in agriculture biotechnology.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0213.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: climate; democracy; religion; evangelism; environment
Online: 13 September 2021 (13:38:27 CEST)
The latest IPCC report forcefully states that immediate, decisive, and large-scale actions are needed to avert climate catastrophe. This essay presumes that democratic governments are best and most desirably positioned to take these actions. Yet in the countries most pivotal to global climate, significant voting blocs are uninterested in environmental issues. The essay urges adding bottom-up dialog between environmental and anti-environmental voters, to current and future top-down technocratic “solutions.” To make this combination result in a unified pro-environment electorate, we must understand: religious objections to environmentalism; the capital-vs.-knowledge strife that slows polluting corporations’ green transitions; and the psychological mechanisms that can make inter-group dialog fruitful.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate; Elderly; Mortality; Meteorological Variables
Online: 3 August 2020 (09:56:17 CEST)
With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate sensitivity is related to their thermal perception. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordão, Ribeirão Preto and Santos, from 1996 to 2017. We applied the Autoregressive Model Integrated with Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordão and lower in Santos (and intermediate values in Ribeirão Preto). Campos do Jordão results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirão Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences. Therefore, this can assist decision makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.
SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0033.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: COVID19; Cyclone; Aerosols; Lockdown; Climate
Online: 3 July 2020 (12:06:09 CEST)
The world witnessed one of the largest lockdowns in the history of mankind ever, spread over months in an attempt to contain the contact spreading of the novel coronavirus induced COVID-19. As billions around the world stood witness to the staggered lockdown measures, a storm brewed up in the urns of the rather hot Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the Indian Ocean realm. When Thailand proposed the name “Amphan” (pronounced as “Um-pun” meaning ‘the sky’), way back in 2004, little did they realize that it was the christening of the 1st super cyclone (Category-5 hurricane) of the century in this region and the strongest on the globe this year. At the peak, Amphan clocked wind speeds of 168 mph (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) with the pressure drop to 925 h.Pa. What started as a depression in the southeast BoB at 00 UTC on 16th May 2020 developed into a Super Cyclone in less than 48 hours and finally made landfall in the evening hours of 20th May 2020 through the Sundarbans between West Bengal and Bangladesh. Did the impact of the COVID-19 induced lockdown drive an otherwise typical pre-monsoon tropical depression into a super cyclone?
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.2029.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: one health; health promotion; climate change; exercise; nutrition; health literacy; climate literacy; sustainability; social determinants
Online: 3 October 2023 (03:38:14 CEST)
The climate crisis is developing to a life-changing event on a global level. Health promotion with the aim to increase the health status of individuals, independent from the present health status has been developed on scientific basis at least for the last eight decades and follows. There are some basic principles, which are prerequisites for both, health promotion and climate protection. Those principles include (1) sustainability, (2) orientation on determinants, and (3) requirement of in-dividual as well as community approaches. People are generally aiming to protect their lifestyle habits (e.g. traveling, consumer habits) and personal properties (e.g. car, house) by easy solution with as little effort as possible, and this can affect both, health and climate. To reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and to protect our environment, changes towards a sustainable lifestyle have to be embed into everybody’s mind. Examples for domains, that need to be addressed in health promotion as well as in climate protection include education/ knowledge/ (health) literacy, physical activity, nutrition and dietary habits, mental health, and social capital. If health promo-tion fails to tackle those domains, this will continue to drive climate crisis. And climate change, in turn, will affect health. On the other hand, developing and promoting health resources in the domains mentioned could again help to mitigate the health-damaging effects of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1546.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate variability; climate indices; low-frequency oscillations; temperature; ENSO; heat waves; Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
Online: 21 June 2023 (11:55:48 CEST)
In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to the frequency and intensity of heat waves and overall changes in temperature throughout the United States (US), correlations between long-term monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures measured at sites throughout the contiguous US and low-frequency variability of multiple climate indices (CIs) are analyzed over the period 1948 to 2018 using correlation analysis. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to assess correlation strength, while Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation and a bootstrapping technique (p-value) are used to address potential serial and spurious correlation and assess the significance of each correlation. Three parameters defined the sliding windows over which surface temperature and CI values were averaged: window size, lag time between the temperature and CI windows, and the beginning month of the temperature window. A 60-month sliding window size and 0 lag time resulted in the strongest correlations overall; beginning months were optimized on an individual site basis. Strong (r >= 0.60) and significant (p-value <= 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibited the strongest links to temperatures in the western US, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to temperatures in the central US, the WHWP to temperatures throughout much of the eastern US, and atmospheric patterns over the northern Atlantic to temperatures in the Northeast and Southeast. The final results were compared to results from previous studies focused on precipitation and coastal sea levels. Regional consistency was found regarding links between the northern Atlantic and overall weather and coastal sea levels in the Northeast and Southeast as well as on weather in the upper Midwest. Though the MJO and WHWP revealed dominant links with precipitation and temperature, respectively, throughout the West, ENSO revealed consistent links to sea levels and surface temperatures along the West Coast. These results help focus future research regarding specific mechanisms of climate variability that appear the exhibit strong links to US regional weather and sea level variability and prediction.