ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0001.v1
Online: 1 April 2018 (10:51:52 CEST)
This research analyzes the Physical Education students’ degree of academic performance with the incorporation of active methodologies, specifically the flipped classroom mixed learning, restricted to evaluation periods in the months of June and September. The study focuses on whether there are significant differences in this variable through the scores obtained. Through a simple random sampling, 131 students participated in this empiric-analytic research, using an ex-post-facto study with a retrospective design with quasi control group. A robust test of averages comparison, multiple linear regressions and an evaluation of the relative importance of predictors is conducted. The results show how flipped classroom methodology linearly and positively influences academic performance and correlationally motivation and support. As main conclusion, in a hybrid and digitalized learning context, the value of the consideration of active methodologies (flipped classroom) based on emerging pedagogies, allows improving students’ achievement and competence development, providing critical, significant, ubiquitous, transformational and especially motivating experiences.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0881.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: Climate change; livestock farmers; rural livelihoods; climate education.
Online: 12 May 2023 (04:33:58 CEST)
Climate change mainly affects production and consumption systems, such as: food, livelihoods, production (e.g., reduced milk production), water, and land use. The role of local knowledge has been recognized as important for decision-making under changing circumstances. This study was conducted in the northern part of the Ecuadorian Andes using a sample of 170 dairy-cattle-producing households. The objectives were: i) to characterize the rural livelihoods of dairy cattle farmers, ii) to evaluate access to climate information and perceptions of climate change, and iii) to determine the relationship between livelihoods and perceptions of climate change. Significant differences were identified between the groups evaluated in relation to the dairy farmers’ livelihoods. In addition, 85.29% of the respondents mentioned that climate information is important, but 67.83% do not trust the sources of information. It was found that there is a significant relationship between the level of education and age with the variables of climate change perceptions. This combined knowledge allows people to promote agri-environmental and educational policies to achieve climate literacy at a rural level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201610.0023.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: climate change; water cycle; downscaling; hydrological model; Yangtze River; Yellow River; Tibetan Plateau
Online: 8 October 2016 (11:29:05 CEST)
Climate change is a global issue that draws widespread attention from the international society. As an important component of the climate system, the water cycle is directly affected by climate change. Thus, it is very important to study the influences of climate change on the basin water cycle with respect to maintenance of healthy rivers, sustainable use of water resources, and sustainable socioeconomic development in the basin. In this study, by assessing the suitability of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Automated Statistical Downscaling model (ASD) were used to generate future climate change scenarios. These were then used to drive distributed hydrologic models (Variable Infiltration Capacity, Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for hydrological simulation of the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins, thereby quantifying the effects of climate change on the basin water cycle. The results showed that suitability assessment adopted in this study could effectively reduce the uncertainty of GCMs, and that statistical downscaling was able to greatly improve precipitation and temperature outputs in global climate mode. Compared to a baseline period (1961–1990), projected future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) had a slightly decreasing tendency of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In particular, a significant increase in runoff was observed during flood seasons in the southeast part. However, runoff of the upper Yellow River basin decreased continuously. The results provide a reference for studying climate change in major river basins of China.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0305.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: academic leadership; change management; educational leadership; leadership; leadership development
Online: 24 June 2020 (18:05:40 CEST)
Medical education is facing great challenges and uncertainties amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Medical Education Institutions are required to build a task force team for crisis management. These should be committed to supporting a sudden online education transition, academic support, and psychological well-being of students, staff members, health care professionals, paramedics, and faculty administration. As the situation evolves, the task force has to monitor the challenges and provide appropriate plans, guidance, and solutions. Leaders in medical education have a crucial role in response to the pandemic crisis in securing a successful educational process while ensuring the mental and psychological well-being of the stakeholders. Herein, we provide tips that can provide a guide for medical education leaders to coordinate crisis management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0115.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: physical education; goals orientations; stage of change.
Online: 7 June 2018 (11:14:20 CEST)
The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between levels of leisure-time sports and physical activity and the stages of change in high school students with goal orientations. Methods: The sample consisted of 2168 students randomly selected to participate in a longitudinal study in Costa Rica (423), Mexico (408) and Spain (1337), with 1052 being boys, 1037 girls and 79 who did not specify sex, aged between 11 and 16 years old (M = 12.49, SD = .81). We used a questionnaire to ask students about their leisure-time sports and physical activity, about stages of change and to measure achievement goals. Results: The results show that students are more active in Costa Rica, most of them being in the stage of active change. Conclusions: We found significant differences in achievement goals in all three countries, which shows that students in active stages have higher values than those in the inactive stage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0444.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: interfacial phase change memory; phase change memory; artificial synaptic device; superlattice; neuromorphic devices
Online: 27 September 2021 (11:32:46 CEST)
Corresponding to the principles of biological synapses, an essential prerequisite for hardware neural networks using electronics devices is continuous regulation of conductance. We implemented artificial synaptic characteristics in a (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM with a superlattice structure under optimized identical pulse trains. Based on atomically controlling the Ge switch in the phase transition that appears in the GeTe/Sb2Te3 superlattice structure, multiple conductance states were implemented by applying the appropriate electrical pulses. Furthermore, we found that the bidirectional switching behavior of a (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM can achieve a desired resistance level using the pulse width. Therefore, we also fabricated a Ge2Sb2Te5 PCM and designed a pulse scheme based on the phase transition mechanism to compare to the (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM. We designed an identical pulse scheme that implements linear and symmetrical LTP and LTD based on the iPCM mechanism. As a result, the (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM showed relatively excellent synaptic characteristics by implementing gradual conductance modulation, a nonlinearity value of 0.32, and LTP/LTD 40 conductance states using identical pulses trains. Our results demonstrate the general applicability of the artificial synaptic device for potential use in neuro-inspired computing and next generation non-volatile memory.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0329.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Education Keywords: carbon footprint; climate change education; pedagogy; engagement; Bourdieu; STEAM
Online: 14 December 2020 (12:36:56 CET)
This paper presents a new engagement model for climate change education (CCE) as a result of analysing interactive digital narratives (IDNs) created during the You and CO2 Climate Change Education Programme. Young people aged 13-15 from two schools in Wales participated in three workshops, which culminated in students producing IDNs about climate change using Twine storytelling software. An inductive, grounded-theory approach informed by Bourdieusien principles of habitus and value was used to explore students’ responses to the Programme. Stage 1 coding identified ‘Core Themes’ and located student responses along tri-axial continua showing engagement, agency, and power. Stage 2 coding combined ‘Core Themes’ to build upon Cantell’s 2019 Bicycle Model of Climate Change Education to create a new ‘Holistic Engagement Model for Climate Change Education and Action’ (HEMCCEA), where learners’ journeys towards full engagement with and understanding of CCE and action could be traced. Barriers to students’ engagement with and understanding of CCE were identified through Bourdieusien analysis of responses. Results show that engagement was related to children’s views on their capacity to effect change on individual, local and governmental level. The HEMCCEA provides a model for adjusting CCE curricula to accommodate young people’s varying cultures and views.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0926.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Human Resources And Organizations Keywords: Organizational Diagnosis; Special Education; Readiness for change; Weisbord’s model
Online: 12 May 2023 (10:28:18 CEST)
Organizational diagnosis (OD) is a comprehensive review of an organization's objectives, re-source allocation, and utilization to achieve those objectives. This study employed OD to en-hance the effectiveness of the Department of Special Education within the Government of Punjab. A questionnaire based on Weisbord's six-box organizational model called the Organ-izational Diagnostic Questionnaire (ODQ), was administered to N=1200 participants, consist-ing of heads of top, middle, and bottom tiers at district and tehsil levels of special education schools, centers, and the main office. Out of these, 506 participants voluntarily completed the ODQ survey. The study findings indicated that the employees of the department possess a good understanding of the organization's objectives. However, there is a lack of opportunities for employee participation in departmental discussions, centralized decision-making, irra-tional task distribution, and unsupportive allocation of human resources. Additionally, there is poor communication, unsatisfactory promotions, incentives, and a lack of knowledge shar-ing among employees, as well as poor inter-relationships, conflicts, and ineffective help-seeking mechanisms. The study also revealed low readiness for change in the organization. Respondents' opinions differed significantly based on their qualifications, job experience, years served, and gender. To improve the department's capacity to absorb change, the study recommends enhancing collaboration and inter-departmental communication, soliciting comprehensive input from all tiers, and promoting employee participation, supportive supervision, and communication. The study contributes to the body of knowledge on OD and highlights the need for improved communication, collaboration, and employee participation, as well as a supportive and supervisory support system to enhance the effectiveness of organizations.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0279.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: global health; planetary health education; climate change; healthcare professionals; curriculum development; sustainable healthcare education; mini review
Online: 16 August 2022 (05:36:28 CEST)
The emerging concept of planetary health needs to be discussed in a more organized and sustainable way within the global public health and healthcare disciplines. Therefore, planetary health should be considered a cardinal component of the global academic framework for healthcare professionals. The availability of related curricula and courses is crucial to equip health professionals in this relatively new discipline of planetary health. In this review article, we aimed to explore published articles and online databases of courses to summarize the available planetary health education opportunities and discussions for health professionals, to identify the gaps in resource allocation and to suggest future recommendations. We observed a visible re-source inequity in global south with the lack of a universal planetary health module for healthcare professionals. Additionally, there is minimal inclusion of allied health disciplines in this learning process. We, therefore, recommend a dedicated network of motivated healthcare professionals and regional hubs with an agenda to ensure a comprehensive, uniform, and inclusive planetary health education curriculum and practice.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0045.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: railway infrastructure; high-speed rail; tracks; risk; management and monitoring; climate change; global warming; adaptation; operational readiness
Online: 5 August 2016 (05:11:02 CEST)
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over five decades to millennia. Globally the atmosphere and ocean is increasingly getting warmer, the amount of ice on the earth is decreasing over the oceans, and the sea level has risen. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the total increasing temperature globally averaged combined land and surface between the average of the 1850-1900 period and the 2003 to 2012 period is 0.78 °C (0.72 to 0.85). But should we prepare for such the relatively small change? The importance is not the mean of the warming but the considerable likelihood of climate change that could trigger extreme natural hazards. The impact and the risk of climate change associated with railway infrastructure have not been fully addressed in the literature due to the difference in local environmental parameters. On the other hand, the current railway network in Malaysia, over the last decade, has been significantly affected by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Our research findings point out the extremes that can lead to asset system failure, degraded operation and ultimately, delays to train services. During the period of flood, the embankment of the track can be swept away and bridge can be demolished, while during drought, the embankment of the track can suffer from soil desiccation and embankment deterioration, high temperature increases the risk of track buckling and high winds can result in vegetation or foreign object incursion on to the infrastructure as well as additional quasi-static burden exerted. This review is of significant importance for planning and design of the newly proposed high speed rail link between Malaysia and Singapore.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0021.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: landscape, landscape change, landscape change index, monitoring of landscape change, landscape dynamics, land use change, land cover change
Online: 10 April 2019 (12:30:30 CEST)
One of the most problematic forms of nature protection in Poland relates to landscape parks. On the one hand, they include the most valuable landscapes; on the other hand, the areas within the landscape park still have economic uses. Therefore, the monitoring of landscape changes within landscape parks is necessary in order to properly manage these forms of protection. The main objective of the study was to monitor the scale and nature of landscape transformations within the boundaries of landscape parks in Poland during the period 2000–2018 and to assess the possibility of using the landscape change index (LCI) to monitor the intensity of landscape transformations within this type of protected area. Filling a gap in the research on landscape changes, I developed and verified the possibility of using LCI for monitoring the intensity of landscape changes using the example of 12 landscape parks in the Lower Silesia region. Preliminary analyses of the transformations within all landscape parks in Poland showed an upward trend, both in terms of the number of types of identified landscape changes as well as their area. In spite of the large diversity and degree of transformation in landscape parks, several dominant processes can be observed. The largest number and area of changes during each of the analyzed periods were found in transformations within forest landscapes (temporary and permanent deforestation and forest maturation), which constitute the dominant type of land cover within most of the landscape parks. In open landscapes, changes mainly relate to afforestation and natural succession in meadows, pastures and arable land, as well as the transformation of arable land into mining areas. Twelve case studies, covering all landscape parks of the Lower Silesia, have shown that the LCI is an excellent tool for monitoring the intensity of landscape changes, but it is dependent on the accuracy of the source data. The analyses confirmed that, during the study periods, the changes in all 12 Lower Silesian landscape parks were at a low level, but their particular intensification took place in the years 2012–2018. The highest LCI was found in the area where a natural disaster had occurred (air tornado), which destroyed huge areas of forest in landscape parks. After changes in the forest landscape, the most frequently identified type of change in 2006–2012 is the transformation of non-forest landscapes into forest landscapes. The main reason for such changes was the expansion of forest into abandoned arable land, meadows and pastures. The use of the Corine Land Cover database to calculate LCI and monitor the intensity of landscape change revealed a low usability of the database for the year 2000 and a high usability for data from 2006–2018.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1959.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Human Resources And Organizations Keywords: change management; resistance to change; organizational change; bibliometric analysis
Online: 29 May 2023 (04:14:09 CEST)
We are living in a business context characterized by change, which today behaves with an unprecedented intensity, driven by the technological revolution and increased competition. As a result, increasingly large and complex companies are facing profound transformation processes in which the role of the human factor and of managers in particular, due to their high capacity to impact the organization, is essential. In response to this reality, the literature has developed a large number of approaches from different areas of knowledge: from business economics to psychology, including technical disciplines. This article offers a classification of these approaches that provides an overview of research on the role of managers in change management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0061.v1
Online: 12 January 2017 (10:05:06 CET)
This paper proposes a method to utilize weather and land cover models to generate future environmental scenarios, and presents the watershed models to simulate the hydrological impact on watershed-scale hydrology. The Weather Generator model and General Circulation Model were applied to produce rainfall and local temperature under different climate conditions, and the Conservation and Land Use and its Effects model was incorporated to simulate future land cover variability. The circumstances of future climate and land cover changes were used as inputs to drive the HEC-HMS rainfall runoff model for obtaining surface runoff in a mountainous area. The WASH123D model was then utilized for the entire watershed simulation. Modeling results were then examined to discuss hydrological impacts on three different time periods: near future (2020-2039), future (2050-2069), and distant future (2080-2099). The Fengshan Creek basin in northern Taiwan was selected as study site. Simulations results indicated that the influence of climate change revealed more relevant effects when compared to local land cover changes. The ground water levels tended to diminish as the land cover area changed. In addition, both river and groundwater levels reveal that it is drier in dry season and wetter in wet season in future.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0145.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Requirement Change Management; Methodology; Change Management Process; Software System
Online: 10 December 2019 (16:41:40 CET)
During software development requirement gathering is an important phase. Requirements are the basis of software development. The success or failure of any software depends upon level of understanding developed in requirements. During software development requirements keeps on changing due to different reasons. Hence requirements are such a critical phase that leads to the total project failure. So, to understand the impacts and to identify the conflicts with existing requirements, it is important to manage and analyze the requirements well. Requirement change management is the interest of this paper. Different requirement change management techniques has been discussed in this paper and analyzed them well and finally conclude the results accordingly.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0143.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: perceived-impact of climate change; climate change adaptation; ordered probit regression; determinants of climate change impact
Online: 13 March 2019 (09:31:37 CET)
This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0338.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: climate change; land use change; QSWAT; runoff components; Upper Chi Basin
Online: 5 September 2023 (14:50:23 CEST)
Climate and land use changes are major factors affecting runoff in regional basins. Understanding variation by considering interactions among hydrological components is an important process for water resource management. This study aimed to assess the variation of future runoff in the Upper Chi Basin, Northeastern Thailand. QSWAT hydrological model was integrated to 3 CMIP6 GCMs including ACCESS-CM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios during 2023 – 2100. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was also used for future land use simulation. The results revealed that future average of long-term precipitation and temperature tended to increase while forest land tended to decrease and be replaced by sugarcane plantations. The accuracy assessment of baseline year runoff calculation by QSWAT during 1997 – 2022 showed acceptable result as can be seen from R2, NSE, RSR, and PBIAS indices. This result could lead to temporal and spatial simulation of future runoff. Likewise, runoff of 2 SSPs scenarios tended to increase consecutively, especially in SSP585 scenario. In addition, in case of long-term spatial changes in the subbasins scale, over 90% of the area, from upstream to outlet point, tended to get higher due to 2 major factors including future increased precipitation and changes in cultivation, which would be influential to groundwater and interflow components respectively. Methodology and result of this study can be useful to stakeholders in understanding changes in hydrological system so that they can apply it to develop a strategy for water resource management and handling factors affecting different dimensions properly and sustainably.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201907.0275.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Accuracy Assessment, Analysis Change, Detection analysis, Environmental change, GIS and Remote Sensing, Jarmet and others wetland change,LULC, change population growth
Online: 24 July 2019 (12:04:29 CEST)
Wetlands are one of the crucial natural resources. They provide invaluable biodiversity resources, aid in water quality improvement, support ground water recharge, help in moderating climate change and support flood control. Environment is in the other hand, where we live and something, we are very familiar with our day to day life. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing and Global Positioning System (GPS) were a useful tool for wetland and environmental change analysis and to improve on the classification accuracy. This study investigates population and environmental change of Jarmet wetland and its surrounding area change analysis over the period of 1972 to 2015. The purpose of this study was to show land use/ land cover change of Jarmet wetland and its surrounding environment over years as a response to population growth. For this purpose, multi-temporal satellite imageries (Landsat MSS 1972, TM1986, ETM+ 2000, 2005 and 2015 and SRTM 2000) were obtained and used for LULC change analysis, elevation analysis and change detection analysis. ERDAS Imagine 2015, ARC GIS 10.5.1, Global Mapper11, ENVI 5.0 and DNR Garmin softwares were used to process the image data and accuracy assessment analysis. The result of LULC showed that there is spatial reduction in wetland, forest, Shrubland and grassland in the period of 43 years (1972-2015) by -1,722.8 ha, -296.2 ha, -1,718.7 ha and -661.9 ha respectively, due to increase in the farmland and plantation area as a response to overpopulation, lack of environmental policy implementation and irresponsible for natural resource degradation. The accuracy assessment of LULC change are done for recent satellite image showed the overall accuracy of 84.06% with Kappa index 75.19% this means this classification is accurately classified and handle greater than 75% of error. Finally, this study suggests that create strictly natural resource conservation law, stopping illegal expansion of farmland, educating society about the value of natural resource especially wetland and create a source of income for society rather than farming.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0008.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: migrations; climate change; Colombia
Online: 1 November 2022 (01:52:52 CET)
The international literature shows a polarised debate on the impacts of climate change on migration. Some studies find a positive linkage, whereas others find a negative one. It is, without a doubt, a complex process better considered case-specific. There is no available information on the relationship between climate change and migration in Colombia, despite past research exploring each of these subjects independently. This study intends explicitly to investigate this linkage gap. Consequently, this paper's essential contribution is that it builds a bridge between climate change scenarios and migratory science for the first time in Colombia. Despite their limitations, the theoretical and methodological framework suggested by IOM (2009b pp. 86, Section B, Chapter II) is demonstrated in this study to be very valid since it provides a methodology to predict where future flows will occur (based on past evidence). The methodological approaches of SLA and NELM explained in section A in the IV Chapter are also valuable for analysing and approaching this study's conclusions. The primary conclusions of this study indicate that the "Coffee Region," Valle, and Atlantic (or Caribbean Coast) provinces that mainly send emigrants to Spain and the US are the key internal regions responsible for most of the international migration from Colombians. The same areas are especially vulnerable to the impacts of upcoming climate change in the A1B scenario produced by the IDEAM (2010) for 2040 and 2100. Thus, future flows of migrants are expected from these regions (2040-2100). However, issues such as visa requirements or the costs associated with migration constitute international barriers to this flow. The sensitivity of these regions can also be associated with internal migration flows, more armed conflict, and forced displacement in a cyclical process. Theoretically, a resurgence of Colombia's armed conflict and displacement due to climate change can be expected. However, the need for empirical studies in Colombia to support this analysis is imperative and is the most crucial recommendation arising from this study.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0150.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: Change detection; NDVI; Landsat; Land cover land use change; Urban environment
Online: 7 December 2020 (12:44:21 CET)
Urban cities are the major drivers of economic growth and development. Economic growth and development however results in considerable land cover land use dynamics. This study assessed the dynamics in land cover land use that have occurred in New Braunfels, Texas in the last 7 years (2013 - 2020) to observe areas in the city that had experienced considerable shifts in land cover and land use. A 30-meter resolution Landsat images were used to examine possible changes in land cover land use. New Braunfels was observed to have experienced significant changes in land use especially in developed areas. This change can be attributed to the influx of people into the city, contributing to the need for increased urban development. Analysis of this study shows that about 16% (about 553 hectares) of forest land cover class and 28% (about 1,139 hectares) of grassland class in time 1 (August 31, 2013) changed to built-up land use class in time 2 (November 5, 2020). A limitation to this study was that of the spatial resolution of images used. Higher spatial resolution images could impact the producers, users, and overall accuracy assessment. Results from this study can aid in supporting better decision-making for sustainable urban development and climate change mitigation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0002.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Applied Mathematics Keywords: change point; estimation; consistency; panel data; short panels; boundary issue; structural change; bootstrap; non-life insurance; change in claim amounts
Online: 1 December 2016 (10:02:03 CET)
Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate number of panels, while the panels contain a small number of observations. An estimator of common breaks in panel means without a boundary issue for this kind of scenario is proposed. In particular, the novel estimator is able to detect a common break point even when the change happens immediately after the first time point or just before the last observation period. Another advantage of the elaborated change point estimator is that it results in the last observation in situations with no structural breaks. The consistency of the change point estimator in panel data is established. The results are illustrated through a simulation study. As a by-product of the developed estimation technique, a theoretical utilization for correlation structure estimation, hypothesis testing, and bootstrapping in panel data is demonstrated. A practical application to non-life insurance is presented as well.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0339.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Decision Sciences Keywords: decision-making; change; behavior; climate change; deforestation; social norms; lobbyist, climate denier
Online: 28 January 2020 (10:44:27 CET)
Leaders are failing to respond to the climate and environmental urgency the world is facing. A growing action gap, clearly visible during the recent CoP25, has been fueled by leaders' inability to respond efficiently to the mounting threats scientists—and increasingly society—are concerned about. Bridging this gap and tackling the growing polarization within society calls for leaders to accept the full complexity of the issues the world is facing. This will require them to question their understanding of these geopolitical affairs and embrace the dynamics at play, and avoid falling back on simplistic cognitive models. We propose a heuristic to convey the pathways available to decision-makers to make their way out of the current inaction impasse. By breaking free of this deadlock, a social transition will have the potential to take place, helping us to avoid crossing the climate system tipping points.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0171.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: adaptation; climate change; green economy; agriculture
Online: 15 April 2019 (12:30:46 CEST)
An opinion dependent cross sectional survey was conducted among charland peoples of Noakhali, Bangladesh with a view to identify the factors that affect green economy. Nijhumdwip Island and Tamaruddi union are highly affected by cyclone and soil salinity. Unpredictable rainfall is the most acute in Nijhumdwip. Lack of information the main problem in Nijhumdwip Island. Farmers are found less interest in integrated farming and crop diversification. Few farmers from Sonadia Union are involved in homestead gardening. Regression analysis have shown a negative relationship (p<0.001) between education of stockholders and decrease of crop production. On the other hand education level of stockholders is to be found positively (p<0.05) varied with decrease of food insecurity. So it can be said that educated farmers are more adaptive against climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.2031.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: climate change anxiety; climate change despair; climate change hope; climate change perception; pro-environment behavior; political orientation
Online: 31 October 2023 (09:09:13 CET)
The main objective of this paper is to assess pro-environmental behavior, climate change perception, anxiety, hope and despair in different political orientations. Specific aims included to validate all the instruments; to assess whether the factor structure of the scales were valid across political orientations; to evaluate their reliability; to assess differences concerning age, gender and political orientation; to know the variables that explain pro-environment behavior; and to evaluate the moderating role of climate change perception, despair and hope in the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFAs), multi-group CFAs (to measurement invariance), multiple linear regressions and moderations were performed. Results showed that pro-environment behavior and climate change hope achieved the four levels of invariance across different political orientations; climate change anxiety achieved the three first levels of invariance; climate change perception and climate change despair achieved configural invariance. Climate change anxiety personal experience, climate change perception total, reality and consequences present higher values in left political orientation that in right or center. Climate change anxiety variables contribute most to explaining pro-environmental behaviors. Hope, despair and climate change perception consequences moderate de relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environment behavior. These results open up new avenues of investigation, namely, to understand why high levels of anxiety lead to more pro-environment al behaviors.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0567.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; discharges; ecosystems; rivers
Online: 10 October 2023 (08:34:40 CEST)
Puerto Rico is a neotropical island located in the Caribbean. Like other neotropical regions, Puerto Rico streams discharges can vary with the seasons, atmospheric events, and human activities. The Lapa River is part of the Puerto Rico Heritage Rivers Program. This program identifies and manages the protection of hydrographic systems that maintain their natural conditions. The necessity of increasing the knowledge of the natural processes of the Lapa River and providing valuable information for the development of a future management plan for the ecosystem, the following objectives were established in this research: (1) to describe the temporal variations in water discharges in the Lapa River and (2) to describe the impact of atmospheric events on the water discharges at the Lapa River. This study concluded that the highest annual discharge averages recorded from 1989 to 2021 in the Lapa River occurred in 2011 and 2017. 2011, the annual mean discharge was 31.20 (ft3/s); in 2017, the average was 40.44 (ft3/s). In terms of atmospheric events, this study concludes that, during the evaluated period, the highest discharge event occurred after the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria, with an average discharge of 164.40 ft3/s in October and 182.60 ft3/s in September. This event set a precedent in the river Lapa’s discharges, impacting the river basin’s flora, fauna, and morphology from its headwaters downstream.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.1246.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Climate change; Butterfly; Thimphu; Bhutan
Online: 30 April 2023 (03:18:31 CEST)
The study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on butterfly populations Thimphu district of Bhutan. Butterflies are indicators of environmental factors and can act as an early warning of impending changes in local flora and fauna. The study will involve citizen science with participants using iNaturalist and Seek applications to capture butterfly data in various habitat areas in the Thimphu district. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistics Kit for Social Sciences (SPSS), Nvivo, and Geographical Information System (GIS) programs. The results of the research will be disseminated through awareness campaigns to increase public understanding of the value of butterfly protection in the conservation of healthy environments. The study's findings will be used to develop conservation initiatives to maintain biodiversity and assess the impacts of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0340.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: climate change; grapevine; phenophase
Online: 16 March 2021 (12:04:14 CET)
The impact of warming on the phenology of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in conditions of Central Europe was evaluated at the locality of Dolné Plachtince in the Slovakian wine region. In Welschriesling and Pinot Blanc model varieties there was observed onset of phenophases as defined in BBCH scale over 1985–2018 period. Based on the data obtained there was evaluated the influence of average and average maximum temperature and GDD on the onset of phenophases. The results observed indicate earlier budburst by 5–7 days, earlier beginning of flowering by 7–10 days, and earlier berry softening by 18 days, and harvest dates advanced by 8–10 days on average. In both varieties there was found the highest influence of the average monthly temperature in March on budburst, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature and the average maximum temperature in May on the beginning of flowering, and the highest, statistically significant influence of the average maximum temperature in June on grape veraison. The warming observed in moderate climate conditions of northern wine regions in Central Europe (Slovakia) has not caused yet the changes in the grapevine phenology stable enough to require serious adaptation measures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0533.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: driving forces; landscape change; landscape dynamics; forest landscape; land use; land cover; landscape change index
Online: 30 August 2018 (14:49:28 CEST)
Abstract: Changes in forest landscapes have been connected with human activity for centuries, which can be considered as one of the main driving forces of change in the global perspective. The spatial distribution of forests changes along with the geopolitical situation, demographic changes, intensification of agriculture, urbanization or changes in the land use policy. However, due to the limited availability of historical data, the driving forces of changes in forest landscapes are most often considered in relation to recent decades, without taking into account long-term analyzes. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of natural and socio-economic factors on changes in forest landscapes within the protected area – Ślęża Landscape Park and its buffer zone in the aspect of long-term analyzes covering the period of 140 years (1883-2013). The comparison of historical and current maps, demographic data on 4 different periods as well as natural and location factors by using the ArcGIS software allowed analyzing selected driving forces of forest landscape transformations. We took into account natural factors like altitude, slope, exposure of the hillside and socio-economic drivers like population changes, distances to centers of municipalities, main roads and built-up areas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0285.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; gis; geostatistic; raster math
Online: 16 July 2018 (12:26:24 CEST)
The province of Macerata, Italy, is a topographically complex region which has been little studied in terms of its temperature and precipitation climatology. Temperature data from 81 weather stations and precipitation data from 55 rain gauges were obtained, and, following quality control procedures, were investigated on the basis of 3 standard periods: 1931-1960, 1961-1990 and 1991-2014. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and temperature were analysed on the basis of six topographic variable (altitude, distance from the sea, latitude, distance from the closest river, aspect, and distance from the crest line). Of these, the relationship with altitude showed the strongest correlation. Use of GIS software allowed investigation of the most accurate way to present interpolations of these data and assessment of the differences between the 3 investigated periods. The results of the analyses permit a thorough evaluation of climate change spatially over the last 60 years. Generally, the amount of precipitation is diminished while the temperature is increased across the whole study area, but with significant variations within it. Temperature increased by 2 to 3°C in the central part of the study area, while near the coast and in the mountains the change is between about 0 and 1°C, with small decreases focused in the Appennine and foothill belt (-1 to 0°C). For precipitation, the decrease is fairly uniform across the study area (between about 0-200 mm), but with some isolated areas of strong increase (200-300 mm) and only few parts of territory in which there is an increase of 0-200 mm, mainly in the southern part of the coast, to the south-west and inland immediately behind the coast. The monthly temperature trend is characterized by a constant growth, while for precipitation there is a strong decrease in the amount measured in January, February and October (between 25 and 35 mm on average).
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0610.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: rejuvenation; vegetative phase-change; epigenetics
Online: 27 July 2021 (15:28:35 CEST)
In contrast to animals, adult organs in plants are not determined during embryogenesis but gen-erated from meristematic cells as plants advance through development. Plant development in-volves a succession of different phenotypic stages and the transition between these stages is termed phase transition. Phase transitions need to be tightly regulated and coordinated to ensure they occur under optimal seasonal, environmental conditions. Polycarpic perennials transition through vegetative stages and the mature, reproductive stage many times during their lifecycles and, in both perennial and annual species, environmental factors and culturing methods can re-verse the otherwise unidirectional vector of plant development. Epigenetic factors regulating gene expression in response to internal cues and external (environmental) stimuli influencing the plant’s phenotype and development have been shown to control phase transitions. How develop-mental and environmental cues interact to epigenetically alter gene expression and influence these transitions are not well understood and understanding this interaction is important considering the current climate change scenarios, since epigenetic maladaptation could have catastrophic con-sequences for perennial plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems. Here we review studies focussing on the epigenetic regulators of the vegetative phase change and highlight how these mechanisms might act in exogenously induced plant rejuvenation and regrowth following stress.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0496.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; city resilience; sustainable development, urban planning, remote sensing, internet of things, water management, heat islands, digital transformation, data analytics
Online: 26 July 2021 (11:38:06 CEST)
Specific climate adaptation and resilience measures can be efficiently designed and implemented at the regional and local level. Climate and environmental databases are of critical importance to achieving sustainability goals (SDGs) and for the efficient planning and implementation of suitable mitigation measures: Available databases can serve municipalities as a vital starting points to determine requirements, prioritize resources and allocate investments under consideration of commonly tight budget restrictions. High-quality geo, climate and environmental data are now available – data from remote sensing, i.e. Copernicus services will be of crucial importance. Forward-looking approaches exist to using such data to derive forecasts for urban planning process optimization for municipal administrations. On municipal level, however, the existing data have so far only been used to a limited extent, since there are no practical tools for urban planning that can be used to merge and meaningfully combine remote sensing data with local data and to further process and apply in municipal planning processes. Therefore, our project CoKLIMAx aims at the development of new digital products, advanced urban services and procedures, such as the development of practice-oriented technical tools that acquire various remote sensing and in-situ data sets for validation and further processing.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1396.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: wooden houses; habitability and climate change; climate change adaptation; safe housing; sustainable housing
Online: 21 September 2023 (05:45:50 CEST)
The prefabricated houses supply in Chile was analyzed from web platforms, public market, social media, and Internal Revenue Service, using indicators according to regulatory compliance, complexity, and sustainability attributes, which are essential in advancing to industrialization, and climate change adaptability. The 80% is concentrated in construction, and manufacturing companies, 83% of them are legally registered,with the capacity of meeting technical requirements. To delve deeper into this, 54% has low level, 35% medium level, and 11% high level. The sustainability was measured in 5 levels: 2.7% (1), 37,5% (2), 58,6% (3), 1,1% (4) and 0% (5), which is the highest one. This attribute was determined as the weakest one. The proposed evaluation, based on indicators by attribute, is objective and relevant to consideration since there is still a lack of capacity to supply the housing deficit, and there is not attributes associated to security in habitability to address the climate change, and environment threats, with a lack of action by the state to promote this productive sector, therefore focusing more in provide products, than taking responsibility of the site, not advancing to become a real state agency, which could be improved if management, and regulation were incorporated.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0060.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Environmental Health; Education; Climate Change
Online: 1 June 2023 (08:04:49 CEST)
Introduction. Environmental Health in a Global World at New York University was re-designed as a class participatory effort, challenging undergraduate students to understand environmental hazards and the resultant adverse health outcomes by embracing the inherent complexity of environmental risks and proposing solutions. Methods. Following introductory lectures, students are placed into teams and assigned a specific perspective, or avatar, which includes learning to see the challenge from the perspective of a technical expert such as a biologist, an engineer, or an anthropologist. The teams then design specific systems maps to visualize the complex interactions that lead to adverse health outcomes after a given environmental exposure. The maps highlight potential leverage points, where relatively minor interventions can provide a disproportionate benefit in health outcomes. The teams then explore potential interventions and identify the potential unintended consequences of those actions, develop and advocate for innovative new strategies to mitigate risk and improve outcomes. Results and Discussion. Over the past 5 years we have taught this methodology to over 680 students with strong, student-oriented results. The teams created and presented more than 100 strategies, addressing a diverse set of environmental challenges that include water contamination, gun violence, air pollution, environmental justice, health security, and climate change. Developing the strategies helped the students understand environmental threats in a more holistic way, provided them with some agency in finding solutions, and offered an opportunity for them to improve their presentation skills. The responses in course evaluations have been enthusiastic, with many students reporting a deep impact on their college experience.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0362.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate Change; Hydrology; Land Use Change; Remote Sensing; SWAT; Nam Rom River Basin
Online: 30 January 2020 (11:10:47 CET)
Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are two main factors directly affecting hydrologic conditions. However, very few studies in Vietnam have investigated changes in hydrological process under the impact of climate and land use changes on a basin scale. The objective of this study is to assess the individual and combined impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological processes for the Nam Rom river basin, Northwestern Viet Nam using Remote Sensing (RS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. SWAT model was used for hydrological process simulation. Results indicated that SWAT proved to be a powerful tool in simulating the impacts of land use and climate change on catchment hydrology. The change in historical land use between 1992 and 2015 strongly contributed to increasing hydrological processes (ET, percolation, ground water, and water yield), whereas, climate change led to significant decrease of all hydrological components. The combination of land use and climate changes significantly reduced surface runoff (-16.9%), ground water (-5.7%), water yield (-9.2%), and sediment load (-4.9%). Overall climatic changes had more significant effect on hydrological components than land use changes in the Nam Rom river basin during the 1992–2015. Under impacts of projected land use and climate change scenarios in 2030 on hydrological process of the upper Nam Rom river basin indicate that ET and surface flow are more sensitive to the changes in land use and climate in the future. In conclusion, the findings of this study will basic knowledge of the effects of climate and land-use changes on the hydrology for future development of integrated land use and water management practices in Nam Rom river basin.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0206.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: bioclimatic zones; climate change; precipitation; temperature; trend
Online: 9 October 2020 (14:03:16 CEST)
Abstract Depending upon altitudinal gradient in the Himalayas, the rate of climate change varies from lowland to upland. The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones. Analysis of time series data (1970-2019) of temperature and precipitation was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trend, which was quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. Out of seven bioclimatic zones, four zones showed a decreasing precipitation trend (lower tropical, upper tropical, upper subtropical, and alpine bioclimatic zones)at the rate of 1.8, 1.98, 2.06, and 1.80 mm/year, and in lower sub-tropical, temperate, and lower subalpine bioclimatic zones, increasing at the rate of 0.45, 1.81 and 1.28mm/year, respectively. Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is significantly increasing more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone(UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone(USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone(TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051oC/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999-2009. The average temperature was found as 24.1, 21.8, 19.7, 17.5, and 13.3oC in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, and TBZ, respectively, and the average annual precipitation in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, TBZ, LBZ, and ABZ was 2002.1, 2613.1, 2223.9, 3146.9, 1447.2, 952.1, and 361.7mm/year, respectively, in CHAL. With the impact of climate change site and region-specific, this information highlights the need to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0332.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Parasitology Keywords: climate change; host-parasite; bioindicators
Online: 6 September 2023 (04:56:59 CEST)
Climate changes caused by anthropogenic actions can directly and indirectly affect living beings, including parasites and their hosts. Changes such as water temperature, pH, distribution of nutrients in the aquatic environment are some examples that can interfere with the fish community, whether in open water or in production systems. In this review, we will show how climate change can affect the adaptation of hosts and parasites in the aquatic environment and how these parasites can be used for environmental monitoring.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0230.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Nursing Keywords: nurse health coaching; social determinants of health; change talk; health behavior change; natural language analysis
Online: 14 November 2022 (02:18:20 CET)
The practice of nurse health coaching (NHC) draws from the art and science of nursing, behavioral sciences, and evidence-based health coaching methods. This secondary analysis of the audio-recorded natural language of participants during NHC sessions of our recent 8-week RCT evaluates improvement over time in cognitive-behavioral outcomes: Change Talk, Resiliency, Self-Efficacy/Independent Agency, Insight & Pattern Recognition, and Building Towards Sustainability. We developed a measurement tool for coding, Indicators of Health Behavior Change (IHBC), that was designed to allow trained health coach experts to assess the presence and frequency of the indicators in the natural language content of participants. We used a two-step method for randomly selecting the 20-minute audio-recorded session that was analyzed at each time point. Fifty-six participants had high-quality audio recordings of the NHC sessions. Twelve participants were placed in the social determinants of health (SDH) group based on the following: low income (<$20,000/year), early-onset hypertension, and social disadvantages. Our analyses significantly improved Change Talk and the other four factors over time. Our factor analyses indicated two distinct factors at each measurement point of the study, demonstrating the stability of the outcome measures over time. Our newly developed measurement tool, IHBC, proved stable in structure over time and sensitive to change. This NHC program shows promise in improving cognitive-behavioral indicators associated with health behavior change in both non-SDH and SDH individuals.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0015.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Structural Decomposition Analysis; Technological Change; Primary Sectors
Online: 3 May 2021 (16:55:58 CEST)
This paper deals with the structural decomposition input-output for the economic analysis of agriculture, forestry and fishing in six EU-28 countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy and Spain) in the 2010-2015 period. The objective is to determine the causes of changes in production in these sectors with a particular focus on disaggregation technological change by distribution factors associated with a specific normalisation of the Leontief inverse. In calculating the net multipliers, an attempt was made to exclude sectors' own consumption appropriately. However, the treatment of own consumption upon introducing a time factor requires further investigation to avoid questionable quantifications. In general, typical characteristics of primary sectors include the accumulation of a significant amount of their own consumption, facilitated by symmetric accounting. Therefore, attention is drawn to these sectors so as to reveal possible analysis techniques that will provide nuance or validate existing techniques.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0144.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: density altitude; Chinese airports; climate change
Online: 4 September 2023 (08:03:15 CEST)
This study examines the projected impact of climate change on the Density Altitude (DA) at Chinese airports during the summer by the end of the 21st century. Findings indicate that climate change is expected to significantly increase the DA at all Chinese airports, with an estimated rise between 300 and 800 feet. The analysis suggests temperature increases will universally contribute to a rise in DA. Pressure changes, however, are more variable. Most airports are predicted to see an increase in pressure, which could offset some temperature effects on the DA. Airports in eastern China are expected to see a decrease in pressure, amplifying the effects on DA and creating operational challenges.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201609.0055.v1
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Archaeology Keywords: change detection; Cultural Heritage; texture analysis
Online: 18 September 2016 (08:38:10 CEST)
The intentional damages to local Cultural Heritage sites carried out in recent months by the Islamic State have received wide coverage from the media worldwide. Earth Observation data provide important information to assess these damages in such non-accessible areas, and automated image processing techniques would be needed to speed up the analysis if a fast response is desired. This paper shows the first results of applying fast and robust change detection techniques to sensitive areas, based on the extraction of textural information and robust differences of brightness values related to pre- and post-disaster satellite images. A map highlighting potentially damaged buildings is derived, which could help experts at timely assessing the damages to the Cultural Heritage sites of interest. Encouraging results are obtained for two archaeological sites in Syria and Iraq.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0379.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate change, Developing countries, Environmental change, Forest, Population growth
Online: 21 August 2018 (14:00:04 CEST)
This review paper is intended to exhibit the interplays between environmental change and rapid population growth in developing countries. In the course of discussion, the impacts of rapidly population growing on the environment have been discussed, and evidence, from various parts of the world have been traced. Studies on the impacts of population pressure on environment have been critically reviewed. It is revealed that all across the developing countries, farm size is shrinking as farmers continue to subdivide holdings among their children. In countries such as Malawi, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Haiti, Nepal and Bangladesh, population growth rates are high, and the non-farm sector is still in its early stages of development. Demographic pressure, land scarcity, and land fragmentation drive greater rural vulnerability and poverty, marked by decreased food security, inadequate response to such natural disasters such as drought or pest infestations, weakened resilience to shocks, and poor health. It is not just the supply of food, fodder, and fuel wood but the resource base itself and the lives that depend upon it are being affected. The evidences pinpoints that man through his non-sustainable production and consumption patterns, is placed at the heart of environmental changes. However, contradictory view, and practices are also in place that the population growth has positive impacts environmental restoration and improvements, while other evidences show insignificant effect of population on the environment. This contradicting scenario puts scholars in argument, and still need further research. Hence, it would be a blind generalization to draw conclusion from this relationship alone, rather, another factor that acts beyond population pressure must also be considered to justify the impact of population on environmental changes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0245.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: Smoking cessation; digital therapeutics; behavior change techniques; feasibility; engagement, preparation phase; attitudes toward change, functionality
Online: 14 September 2021 (15:32:58 CEST)
Aim: The main purpose of this feasibility study was to estimate compliance and acceptability rate of a 9-Steps mobile app preparation program. Subsequently, to assess its impact regarding attitudes towards smoking cessation. Methods: The program was only available on versions above iOS 13.3. The ecological study collected user’s data via the app from 04/07/2021 to 28/07/2021. Results: A total of 2331 ecological users completed onboarding; 1926 users (73.9%) completed the step 0 and only 265 users continued in step 1. On average, participants actively engaged with intra-steps activities (85,1%). Most users were highly satisfied at the end of each step. On average 86% found the content of each step comprehensive and relevant. Mann-Whitney tests demonstrated positive changes in attitudes toward smoking cessation on the less confident users: willing (3 to 5, p <.05); confidence (3 to 5, p <.001) and readiness to quit (3 to 5, p <.001). Conclusions: This ecological study corroborates the expected dropout between first use and regular use of health mobile apps. However, engagement and satisfaction rates support the feasibility and acceptability of a 9-step preparation program. Additional research is needed to better understand determinants of regular use of mobile apps and its impact on the target behavior.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0945.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: Climate change; Ecuador; energy; hydroelectric; pathways; renewable; scenarios
Online: 26 April 2023 (03:36:09 CEST)
Nowadays, hydropower is the principal renewable; however, climate change increases extreme events such as floods, droughts, erosion, and sedimentation of rivers that produce uncertainty in hydroelectric generation. Thus, this document aims to analyze the climate change projections in the hydropower systems of Ecuador based on data from 14 projects studying the scenarios ac-cording to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study period starts from 2010 to 2020 with historical data, collects the tendency, defines a database year, and then projects the scenarios to 2050. The quantitative methodology uses a statistic on Ecuador's hydropower obtained inflow time series to calculate the deviation over the last years and develop a model to simulate future generation. The results show that the hydropower in Ecuador is expected to decrease considerably through 2050 due to meteorological changes. In this calculation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the selected scenarios show a reduction in SSP5 of 11.5%, SP2 of 16.2%, and SSP4 of 18.2% to 2050, concluding that the oppor-tunities for hydroelectric production facing climate change are variable, but the challenges are broad. In Ecuador, the projections of hydropower plants represent a sensitive issue of their re-ductions, especially knowing that the country had an energy grid in 2020 that depended on 87% of hydroelectric production.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0210.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Sobols' method; Climate change; Amazon; Cerrado
Online: 3 August 2023 (02:38:07 CEST)
Understanding how climatic variables impact the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is essential for water resource management, especially considering potential fluctuations due to climate change. Therefore, we used the Sobol method to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of Penman-Monteith ETo sensitivity to the climatic variables: downward solar radiation, relative humidity, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed. The Sobol’s indices variances were estimated by Monte Carlo integration, setting the sample limits to 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of the daily data of 33 automatic weather stations located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The results of the Sobol analysis indicate considerable spatiotemporal variations in the sensitivity of ETo to climatic variables and their interactions. The dominant climatic variable responsible for ET0 fluctuations in Mato Grosso is incident solar radiation, which has a more significant impact in humid environments, as observed in the areas of the Amazon biome in the state. Air relative humidity and wind speed have higher sensitivity indices during the dry season in the areas of the Cerrado biome (Savanna) in Mato Grosso. Our findings show that changes in solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed cannot be ignored when analyzing changes in reference evapotranspiration.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0088.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Climate change; Female farmers; Rural; Ghana
Online: 2 June 2021 (15:25:00 CEST)
Climate change poses a major threat to development in most low and middle-income countries, especially the sub – Saharan Africa. Wurompo is a small farming community in the Wenchi Municipality of the Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana that depends on rain-fed agriculture activities for livelihood. In recent years, droughts, unpredictable rainfall pattern and crop failure have become common in the area. The study assessed knowledge and awareness, effects of climate change on female farmers, and their adaptation strategies. A case study in design, qualitative methods were used to collect data from 50 purposefully selected participants. Data were analyzed using themes and sub-themes generated from the research questions. Findings showed lack of adequate information and knowledge on climate change and its effects. Climate change has impacted negatively on these farmers stemming from decline in crop production and unavailability of adequate water supply in due season. Challenges to climate change adaptation are poverty, poor basic infrastructure, and modern farming practices. Farmers must be educated on climate change and its effects, with training on the necessary adaptation strategies to build their resilience. Policies that target rural farmers to adapt to climate change, and device modern agricultural techniques and practices are also necessary.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0180.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: local climate change; nitrification; monochloramine; temperature
Online: 11 September 2018 (04:18:59 CEST)
In this study, air temperatures were collected between 1985 and 2016 and compared to water temperatures in four locations in the distribution system of Pasadena Water & Power (PWP) that received imported surface water between 2001 and 2016 and from the purveyor of imported water. The concentration of chloramine residual and nitrite concentrations were collected between 2001 and 2016 these five locations. The results indicate that the median nighttime temperature of the period 2009 - 2016 was 1.6 oC warmer than the period of 1985 - 2000 and 0.5 oC warmer than the period 2001 - 2008. The median water temperature in the four distribution system samples increased by 0.8 oC to 1.4 oC depending on the location over the study period (p<0.001). The median chloramine concentration fell significantly (p<0.001) at three distribution system locations and the nitrite concentrations increased significantly at all four distribution system locations.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1092.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Antarctica; High Arctic; fungi; climate change
Online: 17 July 2023 (09:48:48 CEST)
The Antarctica and High Arctic regions are extreme environments, with average maximum temperatures below 0 °C for most days of the year. Interestingly, fungi inhabit these regions. This review describes the history of fungal surveys near the Syowa Station and the fungal diversity in this region. In the High Arctic region, I summarized the changes in fungal communities in glacial retreat areas of Ny-Ålesund, Norway and Ellesmere Island, Canada in response to climate change. In addition, growth and enzyme secretion ability of Antarctic and Arctic fungi at sub-zero temperatures are presented. Finally, I have also provided the future directions of Antarctic and Arctic fungal research.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Climate Change; Policy; Migration; Health; Governance
Online: 12 November 2020 (11:39:36 CET)
Changing mobility patterns combined with changes in the climate present challenges and opportunities for global health, requiring effective, relevant and humane policy responses. This study used data from a systematic literature review that examined the intersection between climate change, migration and health. The aim of the present study was to synthesize policy recommendations in the peer-reviewed literature, regarding this type of environmental migration with respect to health, to strengthen the evidence-base. Systematic searches were conducted in four academic databases (PubMed, Ovid Medline, Global Health and Scopus) and Google Scholar for empirical studies published between 1990 – 2020 that used any study design to investigate migration and health in the context of climate change. Studies underwent a two-stage protocol-based screening process and eligible studies were appraised for quality using a standardized mixed-methods tool. From the initial 2,425 hits, 68 articles were appraised for quality and included in the synthesis. Among the policy recommendations, six themes were discernible: (1) avoid the universal promotion of migration as an adaptive response to climate risk; (2) preserve cultural and social ties of mobile populations; (3) enable the participation of migrants in decision-making in sites of relocation and resettlement; (4) strengthen health systems and reduce barriers for migrant access to health care; (5) support and promote optimization of social determinants of migrant health; (6) integrate health into loss and damage assessments related to climate change. The results call for transformative policies that support the health and wellbeing of people engaging in, or affected by mobility responses, including those whose migration decisions and experiences are influenced by climate change, and to establish and develop inclusive migrant healthcare.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0095.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Pakistan; Climate change; Rice production; ARDL
Online: 7 December 2018 (17:26:03 CET)
This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0091.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: E-tourism; Climate; Climate Change; Tourism Industry
Online: 5 July 2020 (17:04:13 CEST)
In the recent century, the tourism industry and within it the tourism economy are one of the most important and fundamental sectors of engaged business. E-tourism can be used as a dynamic tool in up to date areas of informative information and tourism marketing will be considered as a suitable field for the tourism industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change and the amount of revenues from the tourism industry relying on a tool called e-tourism, and informing and providing services through this way so that Iran can achieve a greater share of export of a single-product oil economy combined with economic growth and sustainable development goals. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0075.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: enzyme activities; Changbai mountains; global change
Online: 2 November 2023 (06:36:29 CET)
Natural montane peatlands generally are not a significant source of nitrous oxide (N2O) due to environment limitation including phosphorus (P) scarcity and temperature lowness. Phosphorus enrichment and warming caused by global change are altering this limitation, likely to increase the source function of N2O. However, the combined effects of P addition and warming on N2O fluxes and biotic/abiotic factor in peatlands are still uncertain. To address this, we investigated the long-term (12 yrs) effects of P addition (5 and 10 kg ha-1 yr-1) and its interaction with warming on N2O fluxes in a peatland. The results showed that although long-term P addition did not significantly affect the source/sink function of N2O in the peatland, it stimulated enzyme activities, promoted peat decomposition. However, warming amplified the effect of P addition to increase N2O emissions by stimulating enzyme activities and changing soil stoichiometry, even turned the peatland into a significant source of N2O with an emission of approximate 100 g m-2 during the growing season. Our study suggests that P enrichment under the current background of global warming will enhance the possibility of strong N2O emissions in montane peatlands, which may increase the risk to further aggravate global warming.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0323.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: fracking; Risk Society; anti-politics; climate change
Online: 17 September 2018 (16:11:45 CEST)
Fracking in the UK has yet to reach full industrial development but it is still subject to significant opposition. This study uses Beck’s Risk Society theory and anti-politics to examine the views voiced by opponents to fracking in Yorkshire, England. A qualitative approach was used; local newspaper reports were evaluated alongside semi-structured interviews with protesters to provide a thematic analysis. Although there are signs of post-materialist concerns with the environment these issues did not dominate the discussion. Scientists were not held responsible for the risks involved in fracking. Instead economic greediness of politicians and austerity measures were perceived as putting the environment and people’s health at risk. Interviewees thought fossil fuel energy production was economically advantaged over more sustainable energy and jobs in the low carbon economy. Protesters’ trust in politicians had been eroded but faith in democracy remained. It is suggested a citizen-led deliberative approach to all the concerns raised, not simply those relating to scientific risk, might achieve some level of resolution over fracking in the UK.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201607.0006.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: adaptation; Brazil; climate change policy; mitigation; risks
Online: 7 July 2016 (10:54:49 CEST)
Subnational governments play a key role responding to climate change risks in terms of policy strategies and instruments. This article analyzes how Brazilian municipal and state governments have developed and implemented public policies to mitigate and to adapt to climate change risks. We surveyed all cities’ and states’ climate policies within the country. The methodological approach includes five main points of analysis: 1. mitigation targets and intentions; 2. adaptation actions; 3. stakeholders’ participation; 4. policy implementation; 5. participation in networks related to climate change. Our results suggest that even though subnational climate policies in Brazil are isolated initiatives within the national context, they play an important role responding to climate change risks in different scales and levels. The strongest Brazilian policies with both mitigation and adaptation actions counted on previous mobilization for the climate issue involving different stakeholders from several segments of the society. These governments have also participated in transnational cooperation networks related to climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0059.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: climate shocks; temperature change; inflation; monetary policy
Online: 1 August 2023 (10:50:25 CEST)
In the era of persistent globalization, climate governance has emerged as a prominent concern within both the theoretical community and government departments of diverse nations. Of particular interest in academic research is the adverse effect of climate shocks on the global economy. This paper employs average temperature as a surrogate indicator for climate shocks and examines the influence of temperature fluctuations on inflation levels using a balanced panel dataset from 1995 to 2021. The findings indicate a positive association between temperature change and inflation within the country, which remains consistent even after subjecting the analysis to multiple robustness tests. Furthermore, accounting for heterogeneity reveals variations in the magnitude of response of inflation levels to temperature fluctuations. Regarding the analysis of underlying mechanisms, the study underscores the significance of energy demand as a pivotal pathway influencing inflationary pressures at the national level. Lastly, by incorporating GDP per capita as a threshold, the research reveals a nonlinear relationship between temperature change and inflation levels.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0329.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: Climate Change; Agriculture; Myanmar; Adaptation Measures; Resilience
Online: 20 March 2023 (01:18:37 CET)
The agricultural sector provides employment and income to the majority of Myanmar's population. The sector, however, is extremely susceptible to severe weather, rising temperatures, and changes in precipitation. This paper aims to analyze how vulnerable Myanmar's agricultural sector is to climate change and highlights the key sectors that are most at risk. This report also examines historical climate information, and the anticipated effects of climate change on Myanmar's agricultural sectors. In-depth literature reviews and summaries of Myanmar's climate change adaptation efforts are included in the report, along with recom-mendations for targeted, locally appropriate actions to strengthen the country's agricultural sector's resilience. Additionally, the study reviews Myanmar's in-stitutional framework for climate action and government priorities for adaptation measures, emphasizes the urgent need for climate action in Myanmar's agricul-ture sectors and calls for more research and development efforts on the effects of climate change on rural livelihoods and agriculture.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0536.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Aridity indices; Climate change; Projections; EURO-CORDEX
Online: 22 June 2021 (09:24:26 CEST)
The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim three aridity indices were computed for the Iberian Peninsula (IP): the De Martonne Index (DMI), the Pinna Combinative Index (PCI), and the Erinç Aridity Index (EAI). These three indices were first computed for the baseline period 1961‒1990, using a gridded observational data (E-OBS), and, subsequently, for the periods 2011‒2040 (short-range) and 2041‒2070 (medium-range) using an ensemble of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) experiments generated by the EURO-CORDEX project. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were analyzed, an intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil-intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). Overall, the three indices disclose a strengthening of aridity and dry conditions in central and southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong(weak) statistically significant correlations were found between these indices and the total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected significant decreasing(increasing) trends for precipitation(temperature). The prevalence of years with arid conditions (above 70% for 2041‒2070 under both RCPs) are projected to have major impacts in some regions, such as southern Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucía, Región de Murcia, Comunidad Valenciana, and certain regions within the Aragón province. The projected increase in both the intensity and persistence of aridity conditions in a broader southern half of Iberia will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of this region to climate change, while the risk of multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into regional and national water management and planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0199.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: urban structure, remote sensing, temporal change, NYC
Online: 10 May 2021 (14:26:15 CEST)
Surface temperature influences human health directly and alters the biodiversity and productivity of the environment. While previous research has identified that the composition of urban landscapes influences the physical properties of the environment such as surface temperature, a generalizable and flexible framework is needed that can be used to compare cities across time and space. This study employs the Structure of Urban Landscapes (STURLA) classification combined with remote sensing of New York City’s (NYC) surface temperature. These are then linked using machine learning and statistical modeling to identify how greenspace and the built environment influence urban surface temperature. It was observed that areas with urban units composed of largely the built environment hosted the hottest temperatures while those with vegetation and water were coolest. Likewise, this is reinforced by borough-level spatial differences in both urban structure and heat. Comparison of these relationships over the period between2008 and 2017 identified changes in surface temperature that are likely due to the changes in prevalence in water, lowrise buildings, and pavement across the city. This research reinforces how human alteration of the environment changes ecosystem function and offers units of analysis that can be used for research and urban planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201711.0116.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: hydropower; climate change; renewable energy; dams
Online: 19 November 2017 (05:29:52 CET)
A large-scale, high-resolution, fully coupled hydrological/reservoir/hydroelectricity model is used to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydroelectricity generation and hydropower potential of non-powered dams across the Northeast United States megaregion with 11,037 dams and 375 hydroelectric power plants. The model is calibrated and validated using the U.S. Department of Energy records. Annual hydroelectricity generation in the region is 41 Terawatt-hours (Twh). Our estimate of the hydropower potential of non-powered dams adds up to 350 Twh. West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York have significant potential for generating more hydroelectricity from already existing dams. On the other hand, this potential virtually does not exist for Rhode Island and Delaware and is small for New Jersey and Vermont. Climate change may reduce annual hydropower potential from non-powered dams by up to 13% and reduce current annual hydroelectricity generation by up to 8% annually. Increased rainfall in winters and earlier snowmelt in springs result in an increase in regional water availability in December through March. In other months, reduced precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration rates combined with reduced recharge from the shift in spring snowmelt and smaller snowpack result in a decrease in availability of water and thus hydroelectricity generation. This changes call for the recalibration of dam operations and may raise conflict of interests in multipurpose dams.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0192.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: local climate change; spring drying; rainfall pattern changes
Online: 22 March 2018 (03:59:30 CET)
The City of Pasadena is located in southern California; a region which has a Mediterranean climate and where the vast majority of rainfall occurs between October and April with the period between January and March being the most intense. A significant amount of the local water supply comes from regional rainfall, therefore any changes in precipitation patterns in the area has considerable significance. HYPOTHESIS: Local climate change has been occurring in the Pasadena area over the last 100 years resulting in changes in air temperature and rainfall. AIR TEMPERATURES: Between 1886 and 2016 the air temperature in Pasadena, California has increased significantly, from a minimum of 23.8°C in the daytime and 8.1°C at night between 1911 and 1920 to 27.2°C and 13.3°C between 2011 and 2016. The increase in nighttime temperature was uniform throughout the year, however daytime temperatures showed more seasonal variation. There was little change in the daytime temperatures May through July but more change the rest of the year. For example, the median daytime temperature for June between 1911 and 1920 was 27.9°C but was 28.7°C between 2011 and 2016, a difference of 0.8°C. In contrast, for October for the same periods the median daytime temperatures were 25.6°C and 28.9°C, a difference of 3.3°C. RAINFALL: There has been a change in local rainfall pattern over the same period. In comparing rainfall between 1883 – 1949 and 1950 – 2016, there appeared to be less rainfall in the months of October, December, and April while other months seemed to show no change in rainfall. For example, between the two periods mentioned above, the median rainfall in October was 12.4 mm and 8.9 mm respectively while for December they were 68.6 mm and 40.4 mm. There was comparatively a smaller change in the median volume of rainfall in April (18.8 mm vs. 17.5 mm). However, between 1883 and 2016 there were 13 with less than 1 mm of rain, 12 of which occurred after 1961. In the same line of logic, no measureable amount of rain occurred for 23 Octobers, 15 of those occurred after 1961. CONCLUSION: As air temperatures increased over the last 100 years in the Pasadena area, rainfall may have decreased in October, December, and April.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0388.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: stair climbing; behavior change; architecture; environmental design
Online: 17 July 2020 (15:10:26 CEST)
Innovative interventions in the planning and design of stair and escalator facilities call for understanding their effects on stair use. This study considers five planning variables for the twinned stair and escalator facilities–stair pitch and width, angle of deviation, height and separating distance. Public sites were identified in 8 commercial districts in Beijing. Facilities (n=21) presenting heterogeneously across variables were sampled for simultaneous up and down pedestrian counts in 18 5-minute video segments middays, for a total of 1464 counts. Stair width accounts for 20% of the variance in ascending rate and 10% in descending. Plan angle accounts for 2% in ascending and 5% in descending, while pitch accounts for 1% in ascending and 5% in descending. The study confirms the effects of layout and design of stairway and escalator facilities on facility choice. The results point directly to interventions in support of higher stair-climbing rates.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1279.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Septic Tank; Climate Change; Waste Organics; Organics Removal
Online: 19 October 2023 (11:52:35 CEST)
An estimated 38 million individuals, out of a total population of around 126 million, reside in urban areas of Bangladesh. The surge in urbanization and water consumption has led to a significant rise in waterborne sanitation systems within the country. One cost-effective solution for wastewater treatment is the utilization of septic tanks, which operate as anaerobic reactors, with their efficiency being closely tied to temperature conditions. This research focuses on evaluating the organic removal capabilities of a septic tank located on the Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET) campus. The results show that a septic tank's ability to remove organic matter depends on the temperature, with higher temperatures making the removal process more effective. Additionally, the Total Suspended Solids (TSS) levels were observed within a range of 110–280 mg/L, 200–1030 mg/L, 160–880 mg/L, and 190–220 mg/L for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd chambers, respectively. The maximum recorded pH values were 7.14, 7.13, and 7.11, while the minimum pH values were 7.06, 7.05, and 7.04, corresponding to the same chambers. Furthermore, the organic removal efficiency concerning dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrate (NO3-N), and pH levels remained within acceptable limits. These results suggest that a simple treatment unit like a septic tank can effectively render previously unacceptable and unhygienic water suitable for safe disposal and potential reuse, ultimately improving the management of septic tank wastewater.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0514.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: forest transition; land-use change; returning forests; global change; growing stock; stand structure; composition; diversity; forest policy
Online: 21 December 2020 (11:32:35 CET)
The forest transition – or forest-area transition – has been put forward as a land-use concept by A.S. Mather in 1992 (The forest transition. Area 24, 367-379), to describe the historical trend generally observed in the forest area of developed countries, embodied in a V-shaped curve of the forest area over time, and that may serve as a paradigm to understand and anticipate deforestation in the developing world. Well in line with a geographical approach to forests, forest transition has thus been defined as one-dimensional, forest area being the reference state variable. From a forestry perspective, the analysis appears to be reductive, as forests are described by many other state variables than area, including forest growing stock, composition in tree species, or stand structure. Whether the drivers of forest transition (population dynamics, economic modes of production and consciousness, as classified by Mather) also impact these other forest state variables in a general way thus comes forth as a logical issue.From a deductive analysis of forest transition drivers, and from forest trends brought to light in Europe, France, and at other places in the world, we here argue that the forest transition concept can be extended to a multi-dimensional space of forest attributes, characterized by typical ideal dynamics. Cumulative impacts onto forests and irreversible losses in forest biodiversity over a forest transition are hence highlighted. Global change, as a parallel consequence of countries’ developing process, further appears as one additional albeit less coupled dimension of forest transition, as it modifies forest productivity and vitality over time. Since forest ecosystem services and forest profitability primarily depend on such attributes, we argue that the extension of the forest transition concept has significance for land-use change and forest protection issues. A prospect on future changes in the forests of developed countries with the European space as a benchmark is finally proposed that leads to extend the temporal significance of forest transition. Though poorly described, returning forests on abandoned agricultural lands are significant, and deserve greater attention.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0557.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Safety Research Keywords: Sundanese strait; tsunami; emergency response; climate change; resilience
Online: 22 November 2020 (11:42:21 CET)
The Tsunami disaster was the first and the biggest in Banten Province. However, in response to the health crisis, the preparedness was still lacking, even though in an emergency response situation, the management of disaster management carried out was quite good. The method of research is based on data reports that include quantitative and qualitative methods. Analyzing health facilities and the impacts that occurred in the field during the tsunami period is the basis for this article and, at the same time, a discussion of describing problems that can be anticipated in the future.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0771.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Electronic, Optical And Magnetic Materials Keywords: Spin crossover; conductance change; substrate effects; device geometry
Online: 13 September 2023 (03:06:52 CEST)
We examine here the conductance changes associated with the change in spin state in a variety of different structures, using the example of the spin crossover complex [Fe(H2B(pz)2)2(bipy)] (pz= (pyrazol-1-yl)-borate and bipy = 2,2’-bipyridine) and [Fe(Htrz)2(trz)](BF4)] (Htrz = 1H-1,2,4-triazole) thin films . This conductance change is highly variable depending on the mechanism driving the change in spin state, the substrate and the device geometry. Simply stated, the choice of spin crossover complex used to build a device is not the only factor in determining the change in conductance with the change in spin state.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0200.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: farmland change; soybean; production potential; GAEZ; Western Jilin
Online: 12 June 2018 (16:01:54 CEST)
In recent 40 years, the quantity and spatial patterns of farmland in Western Jilin have changed dramatically, which had great impact on soybean production potential. This study used one of the most advanced crop production potential models, the Global Agro-cological Zones model, to calculate the soybean production potential in Western Jilin based on meteorological, terrain, soil and land use data, and analyzed impact of farmland change on soybean production potential during 1975-2013. The main conclusions were the following. First, the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin in 2013 was 89.22 thousand tons. The production potential of eastern area was higher than the other areas of Western Jilin. Second, farmland change led to a growth of 33.03 thousand tons in soybean production potential between 1975 and 2000, and a decrease of 10.30 thousand tons between 2000 and 2013. Third, taking account of two situations of farmland change, the conversion between dryland and other categories, and the change of irrigation percentage led to the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin increased by 23.13 and only 2.87 thousand tons respectively between 1975 and 2000, and increased by 1.13 and 2.81 thousand tons respectively between 2000 and 2013. In general, the increase of soybean potential production was mainly due to grassland and woodland reclamation. The results of this study would be a good reference for protecting safe baseline of farmland, managing land resources, and ensuring continuity and stability of soybean supply and food security.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0136.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Waste Management And Disposal Keywords: groundwater quality; environmental change; Permian Basin; Texas
Online: 9 April 2020 (05:50:27 CEST)
This study evaluates spatial analyses of groundwater quality and environmental changes to obtain information on the groundwater contamination in the Permian Basin, Texas. Coupled with the U.S. government’s open data, these analyses can identify regions where environmental change could have potentially effected groundwater quality. A total of thirty-six wells were selected within the six counties: Andrews, Martin, Ector, Midland, Crane, and Upton. Spatial distribution maps were created for six different parameters: pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), chloride, fluoride, nitrate, and arsenic. Total groundwater quality maps incorporate all the contaminants and denote regions of poor, medium, and optimum conditions. To identify spatial changes in groundwater quality, maps were separated into two different time intervals, 1992-2005 and 2006-2019. We found that groundwater contamination resulted primarily from the mobilization of the contaminant from natural sources or anthropogenic activities such as chemical fertilizers. Overall, groundwater quality decreased during the study period from 1992 to 2019 as population and urban growth began to develop in the Permian Basin. This study contributes on understanding of the response of groundwater quality associated with environmental change in the Permian Basin. Therefore, this research provides important information for groundwater managements in developing plans for the use of water resource in the future for Texas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0220.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; adaptation; WaSH; policy; sustainability; development
Online: 31 May 2017 (11:44:04 CEST)
Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of the country, including the Bolgatanga Municipality. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the WaSH development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. In general, despite awareness and concern about climate change, adaptation measures have been regarded to be far away from the immediate concerns of WaSH development planning. Most of the current measures are reactive and respond to environmental issues rather than to climate change stressors. In essence, stakeholders expressed the view that the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1750.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: climate change; buildings; energy efficiency; energy use; sustainability
Online: 26 July 2023 (13:22:06 CEST)
Energy keeps the global economy alive, whereas it is extensively exposed to various climate change impacts. In this context, severe business competition (e.g., the building sector) and the unwise use of natural resources and ecosystem services (e.g., fossil fuel energy sources) seem to sharpen the relevant effects of climate change. Indicatively, contemporary issues at the interface of building energy performance and environmental quality levels include consequences from global warming, increasing releases of carbon dioxide to peak electrical loads, power grid and building planning, and energy demand and supply issues. In light of such concerns, the present review paper attempts to disclose the multifaceted and multidisciplinary character of building energy use at the interface of the economy, the environment, and society against climate change. This review highlights energy efficiency concepts, production, distribution, consumption patterns, and relevant technological improvements. Interestingly, the reviewed contributions in relevant literature reveal the need and necessity to alter the energy mix used and relevant energy use issues. These include developments in climate-proof and effective systems regarding climate change impacts and shocks. Practical implications indicate that the sustainable development goals for clean energy and climate action should be followed if we wish to bring a sustainable future closer and faster to our reality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1577.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: Water scarcity; Geography; Environmentalism; Irrigation; Climate change
Online: 21 June 2023 (15:54:53 CEST)
The gradual decline of the Aral Sea’s water level over the past five decades poses a huge environmental problem in the heart of Central Asia. Uzbekistan, once blessed with abundant water resources, now struggles with water scarcity in certain regions. While global environmental issues contribute to some degree to this dilemma, irrigation mismanagement plays a central role. This study focuses on the widespread problem of irrigation mismanagement in Uzbekistan and specifically addresses the rural district of Oltinsoy in the southern province of Surkhandarya. The main objective of this research project is to propose effective measures that can alleviate the pressing problem of water scarcity in the region while emphasizing the urgent need for well-executed projects and careful maintenance to ensure long-term sustainability at the local level. It is important to note that this study does not include an examination of the impact of global warming on the decline of water resources in Uzbekistan.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0320.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: water; agriculture; migration; caribbean sids; climate change
Online: 29 September 2019 (02:54:00 CEST)
Caribbean SIDS are among the most vulnerable to climate change which will have a disproportionate impact on local environments and economies. Whilst there is a growing literature on how Caribbean SIDS can adapt to become more resilient a question that has received little attention is with regard to migration as an unplanned response. It is recognised that events such as hurricanes and flooding can lead to internal relocation in the short term but societal responses to droughts through migration have not generally been investigated. This paper seeks to address this by considering the case of the island of Carriacou, part of the state of Grenada. Carriacou with its small population, limited land area and local economy, historically based on agriculture has had a high degree of migration. This is in part a response to limited economic opportunities. Environmental stress manifest through limited water availability, inappropriate land management and social conditions is likely to be exacerbated by climate change and variability. Resultant increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts, in the absence of proactive interventions, are likely to result in non-linear migration, both to Grenada itself and beyond.
ARTICLE | doi:10.3390/sci1030057
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: adaptation; perception; climate change; Nepal; multivariate probit
Online: 20 September 2019 (00:00:00 CEST)
This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, are found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation-options are found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of impact of dependent variables in different models, and for available adaptation-options, are found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0082.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: soil erosion; land cover change; RUSLE; the northeastern
Online: 4 September 2020 (05:00:23 CEST)
Impact of land use and land cover (LULC) change on soil erosion is still imperfectly understood, especially in northeastern China (NEC). Based on the Revised Universal Loss Equation (RUSLE), the variability of soil erosion at different spatial scales following land use changes in1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 was analyzed. The regionally spatial patterns of soil loss coincided with the topography, rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, and use patterns, and around 45% soil loss came from arable land. Regionally, soil erosion rates increased from 1980 to 2010 and decreased from 2010 to 2017, ranging from 3.91 to 4.45 t ha-1 yr-1 with an average of 4.22 t ha-1 yr-1 in 1980-2017. The rates of soil erosion less than 1.41 t ha-1 yr-1 decreased from 1980 to 2010, and increased from 2010 to 2017, and opposite changing patterns occurred in higher erosion classes (i.e., above 5 t ha-1 yr-1). At a provincial scale, Liaoning Province experienced the highest soil erosion rate of 9.43 t ha-1 yr-1, followed by Jilin Province, the east Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjing Province. Arable land continuously increased at the expense of forest in the high-elevation and steep-slope areas from 1980 to 2010, and decreased from 2010 to 2017, resulting in increased areas with erosion rates higher than 7.05 t ha-1 yr-1. At a county scale, around 75% of the countries had soil erosion rate higher than its tolerance level. The county numbers with higher erosion rate increased in 1980-2010 and decreased in 2010- 2017, resulting from the sprawl and withdrawal of arable land. The results indicate that appropriate policies can control soil loss through limiting arable land sprawl in areas of unfavorable regions in the NEC.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0058.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: climate change; Ethiopia; climate finance, Climate-Resilient
Online: 5 March 2019 (11:36:43 CET)
Achieving and sustaining stability for economic growth remain the greatest and most immediate development challenge for Ethiopia. For natural resource-based economies especially maintaining stability and growth depends fundamentally upon climate change adaptation and mitigation. The close links between climate and Ethiopia’s economy are reflected by the strong relationship between GDP growth rate and rainfall variability. A study by the World Bank projects that unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year. Along with the challenges posed by climate change, a number of development opportunities are emerging in response to climate change which includes access to international climate finance. The international response to climate change in the form of external development finance plays a key role to support developing countries in their transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient and sustainable development pathway. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the flow and the overall contribution of climate finance to sustainable development in Ethiopia. Specifically, focused on outlining how climate finance is currently reconciled in the existing Ethiopian climate change governance and its contribution to sustainable development. In order to achieve these objectives, data were collected from different sources. The Rio Marker methodology applied to review climate financial flow over the 5 year period. The result reveals that, climate change is central to development agendas despite its recent emergence in the mainstream, with various initiatives under way to combat or reduce its impacts in Ethiopia. In addition, the amount of climate finance from the developed countries to Ethiopia shows some fluctuation for the past five years. In general, the overall flow of climate finance mostly targeted climate adaptation actions which spur and enable the transition towards climate-resilient growth and sustainable development.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0460.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Climate Change; Ecosystem Services; Impact; adaptation; Nepal
Online: 27 August 2018 (12:55:03 CEST)
Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to adapt to the ongoing impact of climate change and associated impacts. However, these ES itself are facing adverse impact of climate change especially in developing countries where most of the people are dependent on these services for their livelihood. Very little is known about the relationship between the climate change and ES. Here we assess the impact of climate change on ecosystem services in ES rich landscape of Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of western Nepal. The study area was divided into three ecoregions from lowland through midland to the upland region. Focus group discussion, and key informant interview were used to elicit the required data for the study, which was further supported by transect walk, field observation and secondary source of information. Major impacts of climate change were observed are, reduced availability of water, reduced food production, forest ecosystem, shifting species composition in forest ecosystem, farmland abandonment, and their associated ecosystem services. We recommend to initiate the management actions to help ES adapt to climate change, and which in return could support the ecosystem itself and people dependent on the ES in adaptation to climate change by providing various goods and services.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0029.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate change; HBV; climate projection; Ethiopian highland
Online: 5 October 2017 (13:50:02 CEST)
This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period (1961 to 1990). The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons 2020 - 2045, 2045 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6oC and 2.4oC, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, though trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0394.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: isoprene; climate change; SEA; WRF; MEGAN; temperature; PAR
Online: 22 March 2023 (09:43:52 CET)
Biogenic emission can have significant impact on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene (C5H8) is known as the most predominant volatile organic compound and its emission is highly dependent on temperature and light (solar radiation). This study aims to investigate future changes of isoprene emission under climate change scenario. The Southeast Asia (SEA) region is home to 15% of the world’s tropical forest, and the biogenic emission from this region can have significant effect on the global climate chemistry. Three climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) were used to drive climate change simulation in 2013 (baseline), 2030 (near-future), 2050 (mid-century), 2070 (post-mid) and 2100 (end of century) using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF v3.9.1) model. The Model Emission of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN v2.1) was then used to simulate isoprene fluxes using climate output datasets from the WRF model. This study highlights that the projected mean surface temperature and PAR (photosynthetic active radiation) were higher in July than in January. Towards the end of the century, the overall surface temperature and PAR over the SEA region is expected to increase by 0.9℃ - 2.1℃, and 7.6 W m-2 – 12 W m-2 under all RCPs. The all-time high isoprene emitters are Borneo and Papua Island. Meanwhile, the projected increment of isoprene emission over this region is between 10 – 14%, 15-30% and 29 – 53% for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our result concludes that the total isoprene emission was higher during July, consistent with the high surface temperature and PAR. The results also agreed with the hypothesis of high isoprene emission over the region that has oil palm plantation. Thus, challenges in dealing with future emissions of isoprene in SEA are closely tied to future climate policies to limit the warming of the atmosphere over this region and the land-use conversion of palm oil plantations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0021.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: children; climate change; climate literacy; education; sustainable development
Online: 1 November 2022 (06:59:44 CET)
Despite the impact that climate change is having on our planet and considering its consequences for future generations, much of the academic literature focuses on adolescent and adult percep-tions, giving little relevance to children's perceptions. Children's voices have the potential to in-fluence public opinion, which may in turn determine the direction of a new policy on the cli-mate crisis. In this context, it is urgent that we understand how children perceive this problem. This quantitative study was based on the application of 245 questionnaires to children aged be-tween 9 and 13 years old from five schools in north-eastern Portugal, more specifically in the region of Trás-os-Montes. To collect the data, we used a questionnaire with 26 questions, being 24 of closed response, Likert type, one of them open response, and one multiple choices. The da-ta were statistically treated using SPSS software. The results show that most of the children ex-press concern about the study's potential problem. However, they show some doubts and a lack of knowledge about some of the themes. We found differences between the two study cycles, with children in the 6th grade having a higher average in the understanding of the phenomenon, as well as the level of education of the parents being positively correlated with a more ecocen-tric posture. The female students also showed a slightly more ecological posture, i.e., an eco-friendlier posture. From the results obtained, we can open new paths for future research and contribute to the definition of policies and educational practices since the school has the respon-sibility to cooperate in the production of values, attitudes, and pro-environmental behaviours.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0224.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Climate change; contract farming; coping; adaptation strategies; Zimbabwe
Online: 15 September 2022 (08:27:58 CEST)
The literature on contract farming and climate change in Zimbabwe has blind spots in relation to the study of contract farming as a climate change response. While the literature on contract farming and climate change abounds, such literature is lacking when it comes to the exploration of how contract farming can facilitate climate change coping and adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers. This paper fills this gap. It draws on in-depth interviews with 10 contracted and 10 non-contract farmers who were engaged through face-to-face in-depth interviews in the Chipinge South Constituency. It found that contract farming does not only boost productivity, but it also enables farmers to positively respond to the ravages of climate change, and therefore, it should be supported and encouraged. Future research should explore more viable and sustainable way through which the state, instead of private sector actors, should be at the centre of contract farming.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0217.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: SVR-ARMA model; Change-point; Self-normalization test; Structural change-point
Online: 11 April 2023 (09:41:04 CEST)
This study considers the change-point test problem for time series based on the self-normalization ratio statistic test, which is constructed using residuals obtained from a support vector regression (SVR)-autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Under the null hypothesis, the series is a stationary process, and our test statistic converges to a non-degenerate distribution. Under the alternative hypothesis, there are change-points in the time series, and the self-normalization test statistic diverges to infinity. The simulations show that our proposed new test has better finite sample performance than other SVR-based tests in the literature. Finally, we illustrate its usefulness by analyzing two actual data sets.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201709.0032.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: random forest; regression tree; carbon fertilization; land cover change; climate change
Online: 10 September 2017 (07:26:30 CEST)
Global change is affecting vegetation cover and processes through multiple pathways. Long time series of surface land surface properties derived from satellite remote sensing offer a unique abilities to observe these changes, particularly in areas with complex topography and limited research infrastructure. Here, we focus on Nepal, a biodiversity hotspot where vegetation productivity is limited by moisture availability (dominated by a summer monsoon) at lower elevations and by temperature at high elevations. We analyze normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1981 to 2015 semimonthly, at 8 km spatial resolution. We use a random forest (RF) of regression trees to generate a statistical model of NDVI as a function of elevation, land use, CO2 level, temperature, and precipitation. We find that NDVI has increased over the studied period, particularly at low and middle elevations and during fall (post-monsoon). We infer from the fitted RF model that the NDVI linear trend is primarily due to CO2 level (or another environmental parameter that is changing quasi-linearly), and not primarily to temperature or precipitation trends. On the other hand, interannual fluctuation in NDVI is more correlated with temperature and precipitation. RF accurately fits the available data and shows promise for estimating trends and testing hypotheses about their causes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1518.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: planting structure; evapotranspiration; remote sensing; climate change
Online: 21 June 2023 (09:58:04 CEST)
Evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential part of energy flow between the surface of the earth and the atmosphere, simultaneously involving the water, carbon, and energy cycles. It is mainly determined by climate change, land use, and land cover changes. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and alter ET. Land use affects ET within regional ecosystems mainly through vegetation changes and agricultural activities such as farmland reclamation, crop cultivation, and agricultural management. However, there is still a need for quantitative characterization of the impacts of climate change and human activities on ET and regional water resource efficiency in arid and semiarid regions. Based on Landsat-8 remote sensing imagery and land use data, the planting structure in the Liangzhou District of the middle reaches of the Shiyang River Basin was identified using a multiband and multitemporal approach in this study. Subsequently, the ET of major cash crops was inverted using the three-temperature model. This research quantitatively describes the responses of wheat and corn to the climate and human activities over a two-year period. Furthermore, the impact of planting structure and climatic factors on ET was elucidated. The results indicate that a combination of multitemporal green and shortwave infrared 1 bands is the optimal spectral combination to extract the planting structure. Compared to 2019, the wheat area decreased by 23.27% in 2020, while the corn area increased by 5.96%. Both crops exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity in ET during the growing season. The typical daily range of ET for wheat was 0.4–7.2 mm/day, and for corn, it was 1.5–4.0 mm/day. Among the climatic factors, temperature showed the highest correlation with ET (R = 0.80, p ≤ 0.05). Our research findings provide valuable insights for the fine identification of planting structures and a better understanding of the response of ET to climatic factors and human activities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0172.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Coastal Disasters; Vulnerability; Disaster Risk.
Online: 21 March 2017 (16:41:53 CET)
This study integrated coastal-watershed models and combined a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039. Database from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze sea level rise using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using WWM (Wind Wave Model) and POM (Princeton Ocean Model). Coastal inundation was then simulated via WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise in an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient, and reaches the high risk level. The assessment provides that important information for making adaption policy in the mid-western coast of Taiwan.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0419.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Food Science And Technology Keywords: Climate; Temperature change; Food security; sub-Sahara Africa
Online: 16 November 2020 (12:51:44 CET)
To bring to the fore the aim of this research, effects of fluctuating temperature, was measured against food and nutrition security in the region using food production index, and undernourished population growth rate as proxies; controlled over share of arable land, irrigation, population and labour share for agriculture. Dynamic panel of generalized method of moments (GMM) was adopted, the period 2000 to 2016 were considered and 29 countries in sub-Sahara Africa were selected within the empirical framework of global water balance as mentioned by Rai and Singh (2012). Findings from the study reveals that the short run effect of temperature increase in degrees pose at least -3.1% negative and significant impact effects on the food production while the long run elasticity hits -7.5% and the controlled effect on arable land revealed a positive impact on the food production to the tune of 3.9%. Contrarily, arable land expansion reduces the under nourished population by -8.55%. Population increase on the other hand increases undernourished population in the region to the tune of 11.95%. The study therefore recommended expansion in the arable land and encourages population control policy in order to negate the undesired effects of temperature on food and nutritional security.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0225.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; aridity; precipitation; Mann-Kendall; Middle East
Online: 13 March 2020 (03:10:51 CET)
Available water resources in the Middle East, as one of the most water-scarce regions of the world, have undergone extra pressure due to climatic change, population growth, and economic development during the past decades. The objective of this study is to detect the trends and quantify the changes in aridity with respect to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in 20 countries of the Middle East and the adjacent area. A Pixel-wised trend analysis was conducted on precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index for 71 years from 1948 to 2018. A nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used over 14106 points in the study area to detect the trends at monthly and annual time scales. Results showed statistically significant (|Z| >1.96) upward trends in aridity (a downward trend in aridity index) up to 96 percent from December through September in most parts of the region. Aridity in October and November had a downward tendency in most parts of the study area. At the annual time scale, 62.5 percent of the statistically significant trends in aridity were found to be upward (up to 96 percent increase in aridity) due to the combined effects of the decrease in precipitation and the increase in potential evapotranspiration and 37.5 percent of the detected trends were downward (up to 61 percent decrease in aridity). The highest and the lowest trends in aridity were found in the north of Sudan (96 percent increase in aridity) and Eastern Arabia (61 percent decrease in aridity), respectively.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.2103.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: ESV; estimated; change; induced; loss; western Ethiopia
Online: 29 June 2023 (11:32:49 CEST)
Land use/land cover (LULC) changes have a substantial influence on ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to estimate LULC dynamics induced ecosystem service values (ESV) changes in Western Ethiopia. Data were acquired from Landsat images of the area for four periods (1990-2020), and 221 sample households. The areas of LULC classes and the improved ESV coefficients of Costanza et al (1997) were used estimate ESV changes in 1990-2020. Forest provides diverse provisions, regulatory, supportive and cultural services. Analysis of the Landsat images showed that forest, farmland, settlement, water body and bare-land were the major LULC classes in the study area. While forest ESV had accounted 46.1% (US$ 4.95 million) of the ESV of Wayu-Tuka district in 1990, farmland ESV constituted the largest share (63.3%, US$ 5.21 million) of the ESV of the area after 30 years (2020). The ESV of forest and bare-land showed decreasing trends in three decades (1990-2020) but the farmland service value revealed an increasing trend in the same periods. Forest ecosystem exhibited the largest service value loss (US$ 3.91 million) in 1990-2020; whereas, the service value gain of farmland was only US$ 2.2 million although farmland was responsible for the conversion of the largest area size (9,766.5 ha) from other land covers in 30 years. LULC change induced net ESV loss of the district in three decades (1990-2020) was 23.4% (US$ 2.51 million). Land conversion due to expansion of farmland (by 9,766.5 ha) and settlement (by 4,061.3 ha) was the main cause for the LULC dynamics and the significant ESV loss in 1990-2020. Thus, the government and local people should cooperate so as to curb the steady degradation of forest and its ecosystem services in Wayu-Tuka district, Western Ethiopia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0062.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: agricultural productivity; agrometeorology; climate change; crop yield
Online: 12 December 2016 (09:59:28 CET)
In Bangladesh, climate change is a major concern because of its geophysical location and climate dependent agriculture. As sessile organisms, crops plants have to face difficulties often in this environmentally vulnerable country. Therefore, this study examines the seasonal trend of two climatic parameters viz. temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall over a period of 1983 to 2013. Besides, this study provides insight into the relationship between climatic parameters and crop yield of two major crops viz. rice and wheat during 1997-2013. To assess the relationship of climatic parameters with time and yield using Pearson correlation analysis, time series data used at an aggregate level. SPSS software utilized for this analysis. The cropping seasons such as rice growing seasons Aus (summer rice), Aman (autumn rice) and Boro (winter rice) exhibited a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperature. Rainfall found to have a decreasing trend for all the seasons. This study also revealed that the climatic parameters had significant effects on rice yield, but these results varied among three rice crops. Maximum temperature had positive effects on all rice yields, especially on Aus and Aman. Minimum temperature had a negative effect on Aman rice yield but a positive effect on Aus rice yield. Wheat yield negatively associated with temperature. Rainfall exhibited negative relation with both rice and wheat yield.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0185.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: Sitting; intervention; feasibility; office workers; behaviour change wheel; police; QR codes; activity breaks; cardiometabolic risk; behaviour change; wellbeing
Online: 13 June 2022 (10:45:43 CEST)
The aim of this study was to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of a theory-derived sedentary workplace intervention (single arm, pre-post design) for police office staff. Twenty-four staff participated in an 8-week intervention incorporating an education session, team competition with quick response (QR) codes, team trophy, and weekly leaderboard newsletters, a self-monitoring phone app, and electronic prompt tools. The intervention supported participants to reduce and break up their sitting time with three minutes of incidental movement every 30 minutes at work. Feasibility and acceptability were assessed using mixed methods via the RE-AIM QuEST and PRECIS-2 frameworks. The intervention was highly pragmatic in terms of eligibility, organisation, adherence, outcome, and analysis. It was slightly less pragmatic on recruitment and setting. Delivery and follow-up were more explanatory. Reach and adoption indicators demonstrated feasibility among police staff, across a range of departments, who were demographically similar to participants in previous office-based multi-component interventions. The intervention was delivered mostly as planned with minor deviations from protocol (Implementation fidelity). Participants perceived the intervention components as highly acceptable. Preliminary results showed improvements in workplace sitting and standing, as well as small improvements in weight and positive affect. Evaluation of the intervention in a fully powered randomised controlled trial to assess behaviour and health outcomes is recommended.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0067.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Chapala Lake; Climate change; RClimdex; NDWI; Water management
Online: 1 February 2021 (17:35:10 CET)
Lake Chapala is a natural ecosystem of Mexico, declared Ramsar site, currently, is an area with importance in the agricultural sector, tourism, and important source of drinking water in the Metropolitan area of Guadalajara, considered as a thermo regulatory body. This study used tools such as Rhtest, as well as analyzing extreme climate indices using RClimdex. In addition, the relationship with the change in water surface of Lake Chapala was assessed through the NDWI index, using Landsat images, between 1985 and 2018. According to the obtained results, the signs of climatic variability are detected in the study region, which, directly affects the basin runoff and water levels in the lake, as well as, the factor of water overexploitation in the basin, so it is considered that the lake conditions mostly depend on the type of management that is given to the resource. Finally, the results will help the understanding of climate variability and its water resources influence of the Lerma Chapala basin, which will assist in future research.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0208.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: behaviour change; digital intervention; COVID-19; school
Online: 15 March 2022 (11:05:30 CET)
The rapid transmission of COVID-19 in school communities has been a major concern. To ensure that mitigation systems were in place and support was available, a digital intervention to encourage and facilitate infection control behaviours was rapidly adapted and optimised for implementation as a whole school intervention. Using the person-based approach, ‘Germ Defence’ was iteratively adapted, guided by relevant literature, co-production with Patient and Public Involvement representatives, and think aloud interviews with forty-five school students, staff, and parents. Suggested infection control behaviours deemed feasible and acceptable by the majority of participants included handwashing/hand-sanitising and wearing a face covering in certain contexts such as crowded public spaces. Promoting a sense of collective responsibility was reported to increase motivation for the adoption of these behaviours. However, acceptability and willingness to implement recommended behaviours seemed to be influenced by participants’ perceptions of risk. Barriers to the implementation of recommended behaviours in school and at home primarily related to childcare needs and physical space. We conclude that it was possible to rapidly adapt Germ Defence to provide an acceptable resource to help mitigate against infection transmission within and from school settings. Adapted content was considered acceptable, persuasive, and accessible.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0267.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Trend analysis, Extremes indices, Climate change, ETCCDI
Online: 26 June 2019 (13:50:18 CEST)
This paper performs non-parametric Mann Kendall (MK) trend analysis of historical hydroclimatic data (1961-2016), an ensemble climate model validation and a computation of 16 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature and rainfall extremes indices. The climate indices are evaluated using MK test and annual trend analysis for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) future scenarios from 2020 to 2045 over Mono River Basin (MRB) in Togo. The annual and seasonal trend analyses are assessed on historical potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, rainfall and discharge data. Results show positive and negative trends of hydroclimatic data over MRB from1961 to 2016. Mean temperatures increase significantly in most of the stations while a negative non-significant trend is noticed for rainfall. Meanwhile, the discharge presents a significant seasonal and annual trend for three gauge stations (Corrokope, Nangbéto and Athiémé). Validation of the ensemble climate models reveals that the model under-estimates observations at Sokode, Atkakpamé and Tabligbo stations, however linear regression and spatial correlation coefficients are higher than 0.6. Moreover, the percentage of bias between climate model and observations are less than 15% at most of the stations. Finally, the computation of extreme climatic indices under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios shows a significant annual trend of some extreme climatic indices of rainfall and temperature at selected stations between 2020 and 2045 in the MRB. Therefore, relevant governmental politics are needed to elaborate strategies and measures to cope with projected climate changes impacts in the country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0225.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Immunology And Microbiology Keywords: pathogen, climate change, sand, water quality, modeling
Online: 22 January 2019 (17:28:22 CET)
Humans may be exposed to microbial pathogens at recreational beaches via environmental sources, such as water, sand, and aerosols. Although infectious disease risk from exposure to waterborne pathogens has been an active area of research for decades, sand is a relatively unexplored reservoir of pathogens and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). Beach sand and water habitats provide unique advantages and challenges to pathogen introduction, growth, and persistence, as well as continuous exchange between habitats. Models of FIB and pathogen fate and transport in sandy beach habitats can help predict the risk of infectious disease from recreational water use, but filling knowledge gaps such as decay rates and potential for microbial growth in beach habitats is necessary for accurate modeling. Climatic variability, whether natural or anthropogenically-induced, adds complexity to predictive modeling, but may increase human exposure to waterborne pathogens via extreme weather events, warming of water bodies and sea level rise in many regions. The popularity of human recreational beach activities, combined with predicted climate change scenarios, could amplify the risk of human exposure to pathogens and related illnesses. Other global change trends such as increased population growth and urbanization are expected to exacerbate contamination events and the predicted impacts of increasing levels of waterborne pathogens on human health. Such changes will alter microbial population dynamics in beach habitats, and will consequently affect the assumptions and relationships used in population models and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Here, we discuss the literature on microbial population and transport dynamics in sand-water continuum habitats at beaches, how these dynamics can be modeled, and how climate change and other anthropogenic influences (e.g., land use, urbanization) should be considered when using and developing more holistic, beachshed-based models.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1088.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: rainfall; climate change; water supply; intra-annual variations
Online: 16 May 2023 (05:04:27 CEST)
Climate change is an issue that is the order of the day, and among the many consequences it has on the environment one is its influence on the amount and frequency of rainfall on our planet, since our water supply depends on them. Therefore, in order to quantify these effects, a rainfall analysis has been carried out using data collected in Bilbao over the last 150 years. Thanks to this, it has been possible to observe that, although the total annual amount seems to suffer a slight decrease, hardly quantifiable with certainty, it is true that the intra-annual patterns are more concentrated at certain times of the year, with greater imbalances between one month and another than in previous years. However, taking into account the capacity of the reservoirs that supply the Greater Bilbao area, it can be concluded that this does not pose any problem for Bilbao's supply, at least at present.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0321.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Aquatic Science Keywords: Sundarbans; Fisheries; Natural disasters; Occupational changes; Climate change
Online: 16 February 2021 (13:20:45 CET)
The climate of Bangladesh has changed drastically which may put considerable adverse impacts on mangrove fishers but very few studies focused on this professional group. An attempt was made to perceive the impact and adaptation measures of the Sundarbans mangrove resource users, employing interviews and focus group discussions. A total of 150 respondents were randomly selected from the Sundarbans west under Shyamnagar Upazila of Satkhira District. It was revealed that the abundance of fishes, fuel woods, honey, golpata (Nypa fruticans), and shrimp post-larvae (PL) was reduced considerably. The resource users have adapted themselves by changing their occupation and becoming jobless and depending on the other family members. PL collection, honey collection, shrimp culture, and wood collection were found professional adapting strategies to adopt cyclone, flood, salinity intrusion, river erosion, and drought. Several recommendations are elicited, the implementation of which is important to ensure livelihood sustainability of the mangrove communities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0312.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: land use; land cover; drivers; change; Sahel
Online: 20 October 2022 (13:31:37 CEST)
Land includes vegetation and water bodies and provides the basis for human livelihoods through primary production, the supply of food, freshwater, and multiple other ecosystem goods and services. The last three decades have recorded frequent drought events as well as rapid population growth, which has resulted in often negative land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the Sahel of Sub-Saharan Africa. In order to propose sustainable land management strategies, it is important to investigate the rate of LULCC and its driving factors in specific locations. This study investigated the case of Wocoro municipality in Mali using a combined approach of remote sensing, Geographical Information System, and focus group discussions. Satellite images and local people's perceptions on LULCC and drivers were collected and analyzed for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. We found that the study area faced a severe decrease in wooded savannah with an increase in farmland and settlement directly or indirectly related to the rapid population growth, high cotton price (which encouraged cropland expansion), drought, firewood extraction, and charcoal production, which was exacerbated by poverty. There is a need to promote integrated land management strategies that consider current and future livelihoods needs and preserve the health of the environment for the benefits of future generations.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202201.0200.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: PirAB; Vibrio parahaemolyticus; AHPND; shrimp; microbiota change
Online: 14 January 2022 (11:12:55 CET)
PirAB is a binary protein complex secreted by specific strains of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) that harbor the pVA1 virulence plasmid and express PirAVp and PirBVp toxins. PirABVp causes acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND), a newly emergent penaeid shrimp disease that can cause 70–100% mortality and has resulted in great economic losses since its appearance. The cy-totoxic effect of PirABVp on the epithelial cell of the shrimp hepatopancreas has been extensively reported. Our studies found that the PirBVp subunit has lectin activity and recognizes mucin-like O-glycosidic structures in the shrimp hepatopancreas. The PirAVp subunit may have a stabiliza-tion function of the binary complex. However, we also found that Vp AHPND changes the water microbiota community structure and causes a significant reduction in several bacteria, especially Neptuniibacter spp. We propose that the PirABvp toxin could exhibit a dual role: damage the shrimp hepatopancreas and kill surrounding bacteria.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1899.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: climate change; variability; farmers’ perception; agriculture; Dorebafana
Online: 27 June 2023 (12:16:26 CEST)
Rain-fed agriculture remains the source of employment for a majority of Ethiopian population, particularly in Dorebafana District, where annual rainfall is low. Perception of climate change and variability supported by local knowledge has helped to advance understanding of climate change and its impacts on agricultural land-use systems. Thus, the overall objective of this study was assessing farmers’ perception of climate change and variability and its impact on agriculture in Umbulo Kajima and Lebu Koromo kebeles of Dorebafana, Sidama region of Ethiopia. A total of 88 sample households from the two kebeles, farmers’ perception were compared with historical climatic data from the closest weather station of the study area. The household survey, focus group discussions and field observation were used as primary data sources in the study area. The data was analyzed by using descriptive statics in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and multinomial logistic regression model. As data showed, there was the declining and high variability of rainfall in the last three decades In addition, the maximum annual rainfall was observed in 1998, 1755.4 mm and the lowest annual rainfall was recorded in 2015, 537.4 mm in the study area. The focus group discussions and key informant interviews further supported the idea that rainfall in the research area has been falling and very variable over the previous three decades. The finding showed that, temperature increased by 0.1oC over the previous three decade, and socioeconomic factors such sex, age, farming experience, knowledge of the climate, market access, and agro-ecology had an impact on farmers' perceptions of climate change and its impact in agriculture. Therefore awareness creation, increase educational level, sharing experience, scaling up best practice and using new technologies are the best alternatives to minimize the adverse effects of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0147.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Other Keywords: behaviour change technique; medicine use optimisation; nudge; prescribing behaviour
Online: 15 April 2022 (14:27:22 CEST)
Providing healthcare workers with cost information about the medications they prescribe can influence their decisions, particularly when that information is provided at the very moment they are faced with a prescribing decision. The current study aimed to analyse the impact of nudges that presented cost information to prescribers through their organisation's electronic prescribing system. The nudges were co-created by the research team (composed of behavioural scientists) and the lead hospital pharmacist. One nudge provided simple cost information (percentage difference between two brands of Mesalazine – Asacol and Octasa). The second nudge provided the potential annual cost-saving that could result if the cheaper medication was selected across the organisation. While the statistical analyses revealed that these nudges were not effective, several administrative barriers were overcome, which may inform future research. For example, presenting aggregated cost information to the prescribers is possible even when the actual cost of medicine is confidential and can not be displaced. In addition, future research could reveal more behavioural factors that facilitate medication optimisation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0151.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; GR2M; hydrologic modeling; transboundary river; West Africa
Online: 17 January 2018 (11:09:07 CET)
In the context of climate change in West Africa characterized by a reduction of precipitation, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources from now to the end of the 21st century in the transboundary watershed of the Sassandra River shared by Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire. Historical and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) data were projected with the model. The Abdus Salam ICTP RegCM4 was used. The hydrological modeling of the river basin was carried out with the conceptual hydrological model, GR2M. This model is a monthly time steps model that allows the assessment of the discharge of the Sassandra River for each climate scenario according to the 2030 (2021–2040), 2050 (2041–2060), 2070 (2061–2080), and 2090 (2081–2100) horizons. The results showed a reduction of the annual discharge when compared to the baseline (1961–1980). For the RCP 4.5, the observed values went from –1.2% in 2030 to –2.3% in 2070 and rose to –2.1% in 2090. Concerning the RCP 8.5, we saw a variation from –4.2% to –7.9% in the 2030 and 2090 horizons, respectively. With the general decrease of rainfall in West Africa, it is appropriate to assess the impact on water resources on the largest rivers (Niger, Gambia, and Senegal) that irrigate the Sahelo-Saharian zone.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0047.v1
Online: 2 August 2022 (08:04:43 CEST)
The paper will analyze the pressures and vulnerabilities of the consolidated city from two perspectives: technical and social. Some design and pragmatic experiences conducted by the author in his teaching and research experience first at the Department of Urbanism of TUDelft in the Netherlands and currently at the PDTA Department of La Sapienza University of Rome will be introduced and analyzed. In the first research activity, whose case study is Rotterdam, all urban vulnerabilities related to climate change will be analyzed while in the second one, conducted in Viterbo, the vulnerability related to the hull of social inclusion, poor accessibility and psycho-social stress that plague our established cities will be treated. The two areas of study, different in size and spatial governance tools, are comparable because they allow deciphering the city's risks through lines of intervention that could serve as best practices and serve the urban planning disciplinary update also allowing to define a reflection on morphology and fabrics and on the shape of the city itself. Both teaching and research activities in which the author is involved allow the topic of urban vulnerability to be addressed with a broad exploratory scope that, in the final stage, hypothesizes design intervention on the neighborhood scale, identified as the most appropriate to provide plausible climate and social adaptation and mitigation responses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0203.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: biodiversity; climate change adaptation; ecosystems; Paris agreement; policy; nature-based solutions
Online: 14 September 2019 (12:07:15 CEST)
Ecosystems are not merely vulnerable to climate change but, if sustainably restored and protected, are a major source of human resilience. Not only is the evidence-base for the importance of these “Nature-based Solutions” (NbS) growing rapidly, but NbS are featuring with increasing prominence in global climate change policy. Here we report on the prominence of NbS in the 141 adaptation components of the 167 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that were submitted to UNFCCC by all signatories of the Paris Agreement. In total, 103 nations include NbS in the adaptation component of their NDC, 76 nations include them in both their adaptation and mitigation component, and an additional 27 include them as part of their mitigation plans only. In other words, 130 nations—or 66% of all signatories to the Paris Agreement—have articulated intentions of working with ecosystems, in one form or another, to address the causes and consequences of climate change. However, commitments rarely translate into robust science-based targets. As climate pledges are revised in 2020, we urge the ecosystem science community to work closely with policymakers to identify meaningful adaptation targets that benefit both people and the ecosystems on which they depend.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1624.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Forestry Keywords: anthropogenic; land cover change; mitigation; protected forest
Online: 17 July 2023 (10:51:58 CEST)
Mount Hamiding Protected Forest is located in North Halmahera Regency, North Maluku Province, the Wallace zone has an important role in providing protection functions, life support systems and regulating water management, preventing floods, preventing seawater intrusion, and controlling soil fertility. The protected forest area in the Wallace Zone is globally renowned for its endemic characteristics of flora and fauna. The condition of the protected forest of Mount Hamiding HMPF is currently experiencing anthropogenic damage as a result of forest encroachment, illegal logging, shifting cultivation, grazing and poaching to meet social needs. Anthropogenic damage has been in the spotlight for decades and has become a global issue. This study aims to determine damage to protected forests, changes in land cover, and mitigation of protected forest areas. This research uses quantitative and descriptive qualitative methods. Determination of research locations by purposive sampling. Parameters measured in this study were damage to protected forests, changes in land cover and area mitigation strategies. To identify forest damage, snowball sampling was carried out, and land cover changes through land cover data processing were obtained from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia. Then using Imagery 7 ETM+ and 8 OLI to calculate changes in forested land to non-forested from 2006 -2021, analysis of land cover change using supervised classification, developing a strategy based on identity verification of forest damage and analysis of land cover change. The results showed that damage to protected forests was caused by anthropogenic disturbances in the form of forest encroachment, shifting cultivation, illegal logging, grazing and hunting of wild animals. Changes in land cover experienced the greatest damage in 2006-2021 amounting to 1,796.54 ha (16.17%). Strategic efforts are carried out using forest engineering, namely the agroforestry system and social engineering through community empowerment, namely training and outreach.