Boolean functions and networks are commonly used in the modeling and analysis of complex biological systems, and this paradigm is highly relevant in other important areas in data science and decision making, such as in the medical field and in the finance industry. In a Boolean model, the truth state of a variable is either 0 or 1 at a given time. Despite its apparent simplicity, Boolean networks are surprisingly relevant in many areas of application such as in bioinformatics to model gene expressions and interactions. In the latter case, a gene is either ``on" or ``off" depending on its expression level. Despite the promising utility of Boolean modeling, in most practical applications the Boolean network is not known. Automated learning of a Boolean network and Boolean functions, from data, is a challenging task due in part to the large number of unknowns (including both the structure of the network and the functions) to be estimated, for which a brute force approach would be exponentially complex. In this paper we develop a new information theoretic methodology that we show to be significantly more efficient than previous approaches. Building on the recently developed optimal causation entropy principle (oCSE), that we proved can correctly infer networks distinguishing between direct versus indirect connections, we develop here an efficient algorithm that furthermore infers a Boolean network (including both its structure and function) based on data observed from the evolving states at nodes. We call this new inference method, Boolean optimal causation entropy (BoCSE), which we will show that our method is both computationally efficient and also resilient to noise. Furthermore, it allows for selection of a set of features that best explains the process, a statement that can be described as a networked Boolean function reduced order model. We highlight our method to the feature selection in several real-world examples: (1) diagnosis of urinary diseases, (2) Cardiac SPECT diagnosis, (3) informative positions in the game Tic-Tac-Toe, and (4) risk causality analysis of loans in default status. Our proposed method is effective and efficient in all examples.

We present a formalism to assess the safety of the COVID19 vaccines and infer a causal relation between vaccine administration and adverse effects, in particular death. We use data on adverse effects from VAERS covering the time interval [01-10-2020, 31-12-2021] (downloaded on 1 Feb 2022). We measure a vaccine fatality rate of order 0.01 for all vaccine manufacturers and identify a strong heterogeneity in the vaccine toxicity across vaccine lots, spanning up to four orders of magnitude. We compute the correlation between vaccination dates and death dates, and produce an estimate of the time lag that maximises the correlation, finding that the onset of adverse effects happened statistically (i.e. 32-41 percentiles) within one day after the vaccine administration and that death happened statistically (i.e. 22-50 percentiles) within about two weeks after the vaccine administration. These results provide data-based insights that can guide public health measures and health insurance policies.

Systematic reviews of 591 primary studies of the modes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 show significant methodological shortcomings and heterogeneity in the design, conduct, testing and reporting of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. While this is partly understandable at the outset of a pandemic, evidence rules of proof for assessing the transmission of this virus are needed for pre-sent and future pandemics of viral respiratory pathogens. We review the history of causality as-sessment related to microbial etiologies with a focus on respiratory viruses and suggest a hierar-chy of evidence to integrate clinical, epidemiologic, molecular and laboratory perspectives on transmission. The hierarchy, if applied to future studies, should narrow the uncertainty over the twin concepts of causality and transmission of human respiratory viruses. We attempt to address the translational gap between the current research evidence and the assessment of causality in the transmission of respiratory viruses with a focus on SARS-CoV-2. Experimentation, consistency and independent replication of research alongside our proposed framework provide a chain of evidence that can reduce the uncertainty over the transmission of respiratory viruses and increase the level of confidence in specific modes of transmission, informing the measures that should be undertaken to prevent transmission.

In the case that ship operators may not be aware of the potential risks of environmental factors in situation of high causation probability during the initial stage of the geometric probability analysis process, it is likely that higher-grade collision accident measures will not be taken. However, if any risks is told to the ship operators, more effective and intentional measures can be taken in time. Moreover, if the causation probability corresponding to environmental factors is no less than the risk early warning critical value calculated based on historical collision accident data, there would be a high-risk level that a collision may occur. A new method is put forward based on quantitative analysis of environmental factors and previous collision statistics to provide early warning of any accident risk, and a risk early-warning critical value (REWCV) can be obtained based on this simple but highly operational and practical method. A case study of Three Gorges Reservoir in China indicates that the range of environmental factors where the probability of collision accident grows rapidly is consistent with environmental limits defined by Chinese maritime standards. In addition, the relationship between the risk early-warning critical value and the number of previous collision accident is also clarified.

How, if at all, consciousness can be part of the physical universe remains a baffling problem. This article outlines a new, developing philosophical theory of how it could do so, and offers a preliminary mathematical formulation of a physical grounding for key aspects of the theory. Because the philosophical side has radical elements, so does the physical-theory side. The philosophical side is radical, first, in proposing that the productivity or dynamism in the universe that many believe to be responsible for its systematic regularities is actually itself a physical constituent of the universe, along with more familiar entities. Indeed, it proposes that instances of dynamism can themselves take part in physical interactions with other entities, this interaction then being “meta-dynamism” (a type of meta-causation). Secondly, the theory is radical, and unique, in arguing that consciousness is necessarily partly constituted of meta-dynamic auto-sensitivity, in other words it must react via meta-dynamism to its own dynamism, and also in conjecturing that some specific form of this sensitivity is sufficient for and indeed constitutive of consciousness. The article proposes a way for physical laws to be modified to accommodate meta-dynamism, via the radical step of including elements that explicitly refer to dynamism itself. Additionally, laws become, explicitly, temporally non-local in referring directly to quantity values holding at times prior to a given instant of application of the law. The approach therefore implicitly brings in considerations about what information determines states. Because of the temporal non-locality, and also because of the deep connections between dynamism and time-flow, the approach also implicitly connects to the topic of entropy insofar as this is related to time.

Consumption of coffee by women early in their pregnancy has been viewed as potentially increasing the risk of miscarriage, low birth weight, and childhood leukemias. Many of these reports of epidemiologic studies have not acknowledged the potential biases inherent in studying the relationship between early-pregnancy-coffee consumption and subsequent events. I discuss five of these biases, recall bias, misclassification, residual confounding, reverse causation, and publication bias. Each might account for claims that attribute adversities to early-pregnancy-coffee consumption. To what extent these biases can be avoided remains to be determined. At a minimum, they need to be acknowledged wherever they might account for what is reported.

Using insights from cybernetics and an information-based understanding of biological systems, a precise, scientifically inspired, definition of free-will is offered and the essential requirements for an agent to possess it in principle are set out. These are: a) there must be a self to self-determine; b) there must be a non-zero probability of more than one option being enacted; c) there must be an internal means of choosing among options (which is not merely random, since randomness is not a choice). For (a) to be fulfilled, the agent of self-determination must be organisationally closed (a `Kantian whole'). For (c) to be fulfilled: d) options must be generated from an internal model of the self which can calculate future states contingent on possible responses; e) choosing among these options requires their evaluation using an internally generated goal defined on an objective function representing the overall `master function' of the agent and f) for `deep free-will', at least two nested levels of choice and goal (d-e) must be enacted by the agent. The agent must also be able to enact its choice in physical reality. The only systems known to meet all these criteria are living organisms, not just humans, but a wide range of organisms. The main impediment to free-will in present-day artificial robots, is their lack of being a Kantian whole. Consciousness does not seem to be a requirement and the minimum complexity for a free-will system may be quite low and include relatively simple life-forms that are at least able to learn.

This paper addresses crashes involving heavy goods vehicles (HGV) in Europe focusing on long-haul trucks weighing 16 tons or more (16t+). The identification of the most critical scenarios and their characteristics is based on a three-level analysis: general crash statistics from CARE addressing all HGVs, results about 16t+ trucks from national crash databases and a detailed study of in-depth crash data from GIDAS, including a crash causation analysis. Most European HGV crashes occur in clear weather, during daylight, on dry roads, outside city limits, and on non-highway roads. Three main scenarios for 16t+ trucks are characterized in-depth: (1) rear-end crashes in which the truck is the striking partner, (2) conflicts during right turn maneuvers of the truck and a cyclist riding alongside and (3) pedestrians crossing the road in front of the truck. Among truck-related crash causes, information admission failures (e.g. distraction) were the main causing factors in 72% of cases in scenario (1) while information access problems (e.g. blind spots) were present for 72% of cases in scenario (2) and 75% of cases in scenario (3). The results provide both a global overview and sufficient depth of analysis in the most relevant cases and thereby aid safety system development.

Obesity is treatment-resistant, and is linked with a number of serious, chronic diseases. Adult obesity rates in the United States have tripled since the early 1960s. Recent reviews show that an increased ratio of omega-6 to omega-3 fatty acids contributes to obesity rates by increasing levels of the endocannabinoid signals AEA and 2-AG, overstimulating CB₁R and leading to increased caloric intake, reduced metabolic rates, and weight gain. Cannabis, or THC, also stimulates CB₁R and increases caloric intake during acute exposures. The present meta-analysis reveals significantly reduced body mass index and rates of obesity in Cannabis users, in conjunction with increased caloric intake. We provide for the first time a causative explanation for this paradox, in which rapid and long-lasting downregulation of CB₁R following acute Cannabis consumption reduces energy intake and storage and increases metabolic rates, thus reversing the impact on body mass index of elevated dietary omega-6/omega-3 ratios.

The nature of the sustainability crisis is characterized by high levels of complexity, thus it is not amenable to be approached from the linearity or reductionist paradigm. Emergence is a multilevel phenomenon that is characterized by qualitative novelty and is recognized as an important attribute of complex systems produced by self-organized processes, unveiled from a holistic stance. This conceptual-analytical article explores the emergence phenomenon and questions whether it can be a way of enhancing the solution process to meet the sustainability challenges. Emergent properties or behaviors emerge only when the system parts interact in a wider whole. Moreover, a systemic approach is proposed as an intermediary component in the process of emergence of creative and wise solutions to the wicked problems of unsustainability. This requires observation and entails analyzing open systems as a whole and recognizing the impact of traversing macro- and micro- scales on causal and creative emergence. The study also emphasizes synergies between emergence and creativity aimed at sustainability. Sustainable development requires leapfrogging past conventional practices, in an accelerated way, and the emergence phenomenon at play between systems levels, coupled with purposefully structured creative processes, holds the potential for catalyzing sustainable development efforts.

Many causal factors to marine traffic accidents (MTA) influence each other and have associated effects. It is necessary to quantify the correlation path mode of these factors to improve accident prevention measures and their effects. In the application of human factors to the accident mechanisms, the complex structural chains on causes to MTA systems were analyzed combining the Human Failure Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with theoretical Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). First, the accident causation model was established as a human error analysis classification in sight of MTA, and the constituent elements of the causes of accident was conducted. Second, a hypothetical model of Human factors classification was proposed applying the practice of the structural model. Third, with the data resource from ship accident cases, this hypothetical model was discussed and simulated, and as a result the relationship path dependency mode between the latent independent variable of the accident was quantitatively analyzed based on the observed dependent variable of human behaviors. Application examples show that relationships in HFACS are verified and in line with the path developing mode, and resource management factors have a pronounced influence and a strong relevance to the causal chain of the accidents. Appropriate algorithms for the theoretical model can be used to numerically understand the safety performance of marine traffic systems under different parameters through mathematical analysis. Hierarchical assumptions in the HFACS model are quantitatively verified.

We discuss what we believe could be an improvement in future discussions of the ever-changing brain. We do so by distinguishing different types of brain variability and outlining methods suitable to analyse them. We argue that, when studying brain and behaviour data, classical methods such as regression analysis and more advanced approaches both aim to decompose the total variance into sensible variance components. In parallel, we argue that a distinction needs to be made between innate and acquired brain variability. For varying high-dimensional brain data, we present methods useful to extract their low-dimensional representations. Finally, to trace potential causes and predict plausible consequences of brain variability, we discuss how to combine statistical principles and neurobiological insights to make associative, explanatory, predictive, and causal enquires; but cautions are needed to raise association- or prediction-based neurobiological findings to causal claims.

The epistemology of the traditional risk assessment examined has a taxonomy based upon deterministic, behaviouristic and compatibilist methodologies which are likely driven by neo-liberal market related requirements for bigger, faster cheaper wind-turbines. Analysis of available risk assessments suggested that there is no conscious effort to deceive the reader although the intended audience is unclear. The language, and scoring mechanisms utilized indicates the presence of conformity bias, confirmation bias, and numerical inconsistency leading to data ossification. By reverse engineering risk assessment content, Pragmatic and Social Psychological aspects can be investigated, and the adequacy of the document can be evaluated using evidence-based models.