This paper explores the use of different deep learning models for predicting precipitation in 56 meteorological stations in Jilin Province, China. The models used include Stacked-LSTM, Transformer, and SVR, and Gaussian noise is added to the data to improve their robustness. Results show that the Stacked-LSTM model performs the best, achieving high prediction accuracy and stability. The study also conducts variable attribution analysis using LightGBM and finds that temperature, dew point, precipitation in previous days, and air pressure are the most important factors affecting precipitation prediction, which is consistent with traditional meteorological theory. The paper provides detailed information on the data processing, model training, and parameter settings, which can serve as a reference for future precipitation prediction tasks. The findings suggest that adding Gaussian noise to the dataset can improve the model's generalization ability, especially for predicting days with zero precipitation. Overall, this study provides useful insights into the application of deep learning models in precipitation prediction and can contribute to the development of meteorological forecasting and applications.

In addition to identifying and prosecuting cyber attackers, attack attribution activities can provide valuable information guiding the defenders’ security procedures and giving them greater confidence in incident response and remediation. However, technical analysis involved in cyberattack attribution requires high skills, experience, access to up-to-date Cyber Threat Intelligence, and significant investigators’ effort. Attribution results are not always reliable, and skilful attackers often work hard to cover their traces and mislead or confuse investigators. In this article, we present a tool designed to support technical attack attribution and implemented as a machine learning model extending the OpenCTI platform. We also discuss the tool’s performance in the investigation of a recent cyberattack.

This study investigated the influence of land-use and precipitation change and variability on Lake Victoria’s water-level fluctuations. Extreme precipitation events, corresponding to extreme water-levels, over the lake and its catchment area were identified and their return periods estimated by fitting them into a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Using general circulation models from the 6^th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)’s Detection & Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), an assessment of the potential contribution of human-induced climate change on the observed precipitation patterns over the study area was done. The greatest precipitation anomalies for the period 1900-2020 were recorded in 1961’s October-December (OND) season and 2019’s June-August (JJA) and OND seasons, corresponding to the period when the highest water-levels were recorded in Lake Victoria. While land-use change in the study domain was observed, extended and unusually heavy June to December 2019 precipitation bore the greatest responsibility for the 2019/2020 high water-levels in Lake Victoria. The OND precipitation event of 2019 was a 1-in-52-year event compared to the 1961’s 1-in-693 years. Differences in return periods at various parts of the lake imply a high spatial climate variability within the lake itself. An analysis of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) showed natural variability to have a greater influence on the JJA and OND precipitation patterns over Lake Victoria than human-induced climate change. However, variability over the land area of the study domain was mainly driven by human-induced climate change rather than natural variability, implying a unique climate system over Lake Victoria. Findings from the current study enhance the understanding of Lake Victoria’s water budget and motivate for further research to inform effective strategies on the planning and use of Lake Victoria’s water resources in a changing climate.

Harsh parenting could be regarded as a harsh form of behavior, feelings and attitude towards children in the process of parenting. According to the theory of intergenerational transmission of violence, harsh parenting is an important factor affecting children's aggressive behavior, but the theory does not clarify the specific action path between the harsh parenting and aggressive behavior. In order to reveal the relationship between harsh parenting and aggressive behavior of juvenile delinquents, 604 male juvenile delinquents (N=604, Mage=16.57 years, SD=0.612 years) were investigated using Harsh Parenting Questionnaire, Buss-Perry Aggression Questionnaire, Multidimensional Peer-Victimization Scale, and the Word Sentence Association Paradigm for Hostility in Chinese version. Analysis using structural equation modeling procedures showed that (a) all variables were positively associated with each others; (b) the partial indirect effect of harsh parenting on aggressive behaviors was realized through the mediator of peer victimization and hostile attribution bias independently, (c) as well as the partial indirect effect through the mediator of peer victimization and hostile attribution bias sequentially. The results suggested that harsh parenting can explain the high aggressive behavior of male juvenile delinquents. Moreover, harsh parenting may also lead to the formation of hostile attribution bias by increasing the risk of peer victimization, and ultimately lead to the formation of highly aggressive behaviors.

The diffusion of New Ways of Working (NWW) is an important trend in contemporary organi-zations. Many related empirical studies have been produced, but none have focused on differences in employees’ perceptions of the opportunity to use NWW according to organization sector (pri-vate, semi-public, public). This study, based on neoinstituionalism and HR attributions theory, investigated these differences via a survey (n=2693) of employees at private (n=358), semi-public (n=204), and public (n=2131) organizations. The results show that public employees reported less opportunity to use NWW than their private and semi-public counterparts. Furthermore, private sector employees were more likely to attribute well-being and productivity benefits to NWW than their public sector and semi-public counterparts. We also show that institutional and organiza-tional variables specific to the characteristics of organizations in the three sectors partially ex-plain the degree of perceptions with respect to the opportunity to use NWW.

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcing of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92\% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870-2017 is explained by this model, and in particular all features of the 1998 -- 2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870 -- 1915 and 1940 -- 1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO and a small contribution from solar activity.

Biological events—including outbreaks and pandemics, biological weapons use, or accidental laboratory release—have the potential to be extremely disruptive. The ability to accurately investigate, identify origins of, and attribute these events is critical for deterring deliberate events and implementing interventions to prevent future natural or accidental events. However, historical examples of biological event attribution and origins investigations illustrate significant gaps in processes, from technical capabilities to communications, and have lacked conclusive consensus among decision makers, the public, and scientists. This study aimed to assess attitudes and expectations of a broad range of stakeholders regarding investigations and evidence generated for biological attribution. We interviewed 41 experts in disciplines related to attribution and investigations and analyzed interview content using a mixed-methods approach. Interviews generated a list of factors to consider when planning or conducting investigations, presented here. Opinions concerning the conduct and reporting of biological samples analyses and perceptions of feasibility of attribution varied among interviewees representing different fields of study. Participant opinions varied less in regard to requirements, protocols, and guidelines thought to be important to maintain confidence and trust in an investigation and evidence. Findings from this study can inform planning for future events.

While thunderstorms can pose severe risks to property and life, forecasting remains challenging, even at short lead times, as these often arise in meta-stable atmospheric conditions. In this paper, we examine the question of how well we could perform short-term (up to 180min) forecasts using exclusively multi-spectral satellite images and past lighting events as data. We employ representation learning based on deep convolutional neural networks in an “end-to-end” fashion. Here, a crucial problem is handling the imbalance of the positive and negative classes appropriately in order to be able to obtain predictive results (which is not addressed by many previous machine-learning-based approaches). The resulting network outperforms previous methods based on physically-based features and optical flow methods (similar to operational prediction models) and generalizes across different years. A closer examination of the classifier performance over time and under masking of input data indicates that the learned model actually draws most information from structures in the visible spectrum, with infrared imaging sustaining some classification performance during the night.

Ozone and fine particles (PM_2.5) are the two main air pollutants of concern in the New South Wales Greater Metropolitan Region (NSW GMR) region due to their contribution to poor air quality days in the region. This paper focuses on source contributions to ambient ozone concentrations for different parts of the NSW GMR, based on source emissions across the greater Sydney region. The observation-based Integrated Empirical Rate Model (IER) was applied to delineate the different regions within the GMR based on the photochemical smog profile of each region. Ozone source contribution is then modelled using the CCAM-CTM (Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model-Chemical Transport Model) modelling system and the latest air emission inventory for the greater Sydney region. Source contributions to ozone varied between regions, and also varied depending on the air quality metric applied (e.g., average or maximum ozone). Biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions were found to contribute significantly to median and maximum ozone concentration in North West Sydney during summer. After commercial domestic, power station was found to be the next largest anthropogenic source of maximum ozone concentrations in North West Sydney. However, in South West Sydney, beside commercial and domestic sources, on-road vehicles were predicted to be the most significant contributor to maximum ozone levels, followed by biogenic sources and power stations. The results provide information which policy makers can devise various options to control ozone levels in different parts of the NSW Greater Metropolitan Region.